How long until the Bulls actually fully commit to a rebuild?

[Dan Z]

Why did the Bulls give up a 2025 pick for Demar? Its not like the Spur/DDR had a ton of competitive offers. Or that DDR was the Bulls "missing piece".

It cost trade capital for the Spurs to agree to take on the contracts of Thaddeus Young and Al-Farouq Aminu.

The Spurs later flipped Thad for a first, so he had positive value. Aminu did not, but like I said before...if the Bulls stood their ground what would the Spurs do? They didn't have a lot of options.

At least make the pick heabily protected. If the Bulls give their 2025 pick to the Spurs that will be frustrating.

[drosestruts]

Why did the Bulls give up a 2025 pick for Demar? Its not like the Spur/DDR had a ton of competitive offers. Or that DDR was the Bulls "missing piece".

It cost trade capital for the Spurs to agree to take on the contracts of Thaddeus Young and Al-Farouq Aminu.

The Spurs later flipped Thad for a first, so he had positive value. Aminu did not, but like I said before...if the Bulls stood their ground what would the Spurs do? They didn't have a lot of options.

At least make the pick heabily protected. If the Bulls give their 2025 pick to the Spurs that will be frustrating.

Bulls are going to give a pick to the Spurs at some point - whether that's 2025, 2026, or 2027. It's not like the pick is just this year and if we manage to keep it the pick owed is relinquished - we'll still owe them a first.

And there's no way, anyone can say what year it will be better to have that pick in.

[MrSparkle]

It cost trade capital for the Spurs to agree to take on the contracts of Thaddeus Young and Al-Farouq Aminu.

The Spurs later flipped Thad for a first, so he had positive value. Aminu did not, but like I said before...if the Bulls stood their ground what would the Spurs do? They didn't have a lot of options.

At least make the pick heabily protected. If the Bulls give their 2025 pick to the Spurs that will be frustrating.

Bulls are going to give a pick to the Spurs at some point - whether that's 2025, 2026, or 2027. It's not like the pick is just this year and if we manage to keep it the pick owed is relinquished - we'll still owe them a first.

And there's no way, anyone can say what year it will be better to have that pick in.

I think tanking 2 years should be the baseline plan. If they happen to be good in 2027, great problem to have - then we deliver 10-20 pick to Spurs while being a good young team.

But I think the Bulls should waive the white flag (literally by going for Cooper Flag), and then double down with a harder tank next season. At that point, if AKME can’t find a star(s) from the next 2 top-8 drafts and Matas, then these idiots need to be cannoned far and away from the city of Chicago.

[drosestruts]

The Spurs later flipped Thad for a first, so he had positive value. Aminu did not, but like I said before...if the Bulls stood their ground what would the Spurs do? They didn't have a lot of options.

At least make the pick heabily protected. If the Bulls give their 2025 pick to the Spurs that will be frustrating.

Bulls are going to give a pick to the Spurs at some point - whether that's 2025, 2026, or 2027. It's not like the pick is just this year and if we manage to keep it the pick owed is relinquished - we'll still owe them a first.

And there's no way, anyone can say what year it will be better to have that pick in.

I think tanking 2 years should be the baseline plan. If they happen to be good in 2027, great problem to have - then we deliver 10-20 pick to Spurs while being a good young team.

But I think the Bulls should waive the white flag (literally by going for Cooper Flag), and then double down with a harder tank next season. At that point, if AKME can’t find a star(s) from the next 2 top-8 drafts and Matas, then these idiots need to be cannoned far and away from the city of Chicago.

If we're good this year it will be because we're a good young team. Vuc is our only contributor over 30.

Why is being a playoff team now not a great problem to have but somehow it would be in two years?

[Stratmaster]

We aren’t a play-in team though....

The Bulls are currently the 10th seed, which is in fact a play-in spot.

The Bulls have played 20 games which is in fact only a quarter of the season.

So 10th right now is meaningless.

They have also played the most difficult part of their schedule and are about to play out one of the easiest schedule in the league. So you are right. They should end up much higher than 10th

[kodo]

Why did the Bulls give up a 2025 pick for Demar? Its not like the Spur/DDR had a ton of competitive offers. Or that DDR was the Bulls "missing piece".

It cost trade capital for the Spurs to agree to take on the contracts of Thaddeus Young and Al-Farouq Aminu.

The Spurs later flipped Thad for a first, so he had positive value. Aminu did not, but like I said before...if the Bulls stood their ground what would the Spurs do? They didn't have a lot of options.

At least make the pick heabily protected. If the Bulls give their 2025 pick to the Spurs that will be frustrating.

Thad was not the point of that trade he was just salary matching. The crux of that trade was the Spurs took on salary the other team didn't want (Dragic, Raptors) in exchange for a heavily protected 1st round pick. Spurs immediately bought out Dragic, so they paid him $18M to not play for them. It's basically identical to what SAS did for Chicago that allowed us to S&T Derozan.
Toronto also got a DET 2nd rounder which at the time would be viewed as a low 1st rounder in value (ended up being pick #33).

but like I said before...if the Bulls stood their ground what would the Spurs do? They didn't have a lot of options.

They would have not resigned Derozan as they originally intended. Derozan signs in FA with a team with cap space, which would have excluded Chicago.

[jnrjr79]

It cost trade capital for the Spurs to agree to take on the contracts of Thaddeus Young and Al-Farouq Aminu.

The Spurs later flipped Thad for a first, so he had positive value. Aminu did not, but like I said before...if the Bulls stood their ground what would the Spurs do? They didn't have a lot of options.

At least make the pick heabily protected. If the Bulls give their 2025 pick to the Spurs that will be frustrating.

Bulls are going to give a pick to the Spurs at some point - whether that's 2025, 2026, or 2027. It's not like the pick is just this year and if we manage to keep it the pick owed is relinquished - we'll still owe them a first.

And there's no way, anyone can say what year it will be better to have that pick in.

Well sure, but it becomes a 2nd in 2028, so it's theoretically possible to avoid sending a 1st. But unlikely the Bulls would stay bad enough, long enough.

IMO, the urgency to keep the pick this year is 1) it's a better-regarded draft for talent, and 2) the Bulls need to get moving on development *now*, so getting the jump start has value rather than delaying a year.

[DuckIII]

Bulls are going to give a pick to the Spurs at some point - whether that's 2025, 2026, or 2027. It's not like the pick is just this year and if we manage to keep it the pick owed is relinquished - we'll still owe them a first.

And there's no way, anyone can say what year it will be better to have that pick in.

I think tanking 2 years should be the baseline plan. If they happen to be good in 2027, great problem to have - then we deliver 10-20 pick to Spurs while being a good young team.

But I think the Bulls should waive the white flag (literally by going for Cooper Flag), and then double down with a harder tank next season. At that point, if AKME can’t find a star(s) from the next 2 top-8 drafts and Matas, then these idiots need to be cannoned far and away from the city of Chicago.

If we're good this year it will be because we're a good young team. Vuc is our only contributor over 30.

Why is being a playoff team now not a great problem to have but somehow it would be in two years?

Because the roster constructions would presumably be different, with one reaching the playoffs on the backs of purely young players and hopefully a rising franchise player or two.

Regardless, it would likely need to be a three year "tank" because if we get our pick this year then it drops to top 8 protected the next two years and then converts to second rounders. Ideally, we tank for 3 years and keep all or first round picks.

Well, actually ideally we draft a franchise player this year and he's so fricking awesome along with other developing players tanking is not an option. But that's extremely unlikely.

[DuckIII]

The Spurs later flipped Thad for a first, so he had positive value. Aminu did not, but like I said before...if the Bulls stood their ground what would the Spurs do? They didn't have a lot of options.

At least make the pick heabily protected. If the Bulls give their 2025 pick to the Spurs that will be frustrating.

Bulls are going to give a pick to the Spurs at some point - whether that's 2025, 2026, or 2027. It's not like the pick is just this year and if we manage to keep it the pick owed is relinquished - we'll still owe them a first.

And there's no way, anyone can say what year it will be better to have that pick in.

Well sure, but it becomes a 2nd in 2028, so it's theoretically possible to avoid sending a 1st. But unlikely the Bulls would stay bad enough, long enough.

IMO, the urgency to keep the pick this year is 1) it's a better-regarded draft for talent, and 2) the Bulls need to get moving on development *now*, so getting the jump start has value rather than delaying a year.

A few follow up points and quibbles:

1. This idea that it doesn't matter which year we convey a pick to the Spurs has to stop. It matters tremendously to rebuilding. For trade purposes a fixed current lottery pick in a draft widely regarded as outstanding has significantly more trade value that an unknown pick in an unknown draft. That is not objectively debatable. This year's pick is worth the most to a rebuilding team because trading valuable lotter picks is one avenue to rebuild.

2. I don't thin its necessarily all that unlikely for the Bulls to keep all their firsts if they trade off the vets and rebuild. It is not uncommon at all for a team who just commenced a blow-up rebuild to be in the bottom 8 for three straight years.

3. The concern with #2 is that AK, in AK fashion, really only "rebuilds" for one year. He gets a lottery pick he likes and immediately starts adding vets to get competitive quickly.

[League Circles]

The only meaningful way to impact whether we keep our pick is trades and signings. The only players up for contract on the horizon are Giddey and Ball. We probably shouldn't re-sign either one. Trades are a crapshoot in terms of impact on our record this year (yes, even for "win now vets" like Zach and Vuc), but if there is a good trade available that looks like it will help us long term but hurt us this year, that's a nice bonus to consider.

[MrSparkle]

I think tanking 2 years should be the baseline plan. If they happen to be good in 2027, great problem to have - then we deliver 10-20 pick to Spurs while being a good young team.

But I think the Bulls should waive the white flag (literally by going for Cooper Flag), and then double down with a harder tank next season. At that point, if AKME can’t find a star(s) from the next 2 top-8 drafts and Matas, then these idiots need to be cannoned far and away from the city of Chicago.

If we're good this year it will be because we're a good young team. Vuc is our only contributor over 30.

Why is being a playoff team now not a great problem to have but somehow it would be in two years?

Because the roster constructions would presumably be different, with one reaching the playoffs on the backs of purely young players and hopefully a rising franchise player or two.

Regardless, it would likely need to be a three year "tank" because if we get our pick this year then it drops to top 8 protected the next two years and then converts to second rounders. Ideally, we tank for 3 years and keep all or first round picks.

Well, actually ideally we draft a franchise player this year and he's so fricking awesome along with other developing players tanking is not an option. But that's extremely unlikely.

Durant and Lebron were on lotto teams in their rookie years, and Rose joined a playoff seasoned roster (Kirk/Deng/Gordon) and still barely made 8 seed with a late rally after the Miller/Salmons trade. So yeah , I mean, it takes time. I'd say 2y tank at minimum, even with a good draft. At this point, I can't even trust they'll make the right pick in the top-4 of a strong draft. I've just personally fallen really flat on this GM and scouting staff. I'm really reaching to find positives with this farm. I see talent, but the numbers are just pathetic.

drose, we're talking about maximizing odds in 2 promising drafts that have some superstar talents. Despite my high hopes the last 4y, there is nobody on this young roster with anything close to that. Even Matas - I like his potential, but there is no record of a rookie with a 7.7 PER and 48% TS turning into an All-NBA 1st team player in the next 4y. He has talent and size, handles, but he has ways to go with his shooting and everything else, to become something like a fringe all-star, in a best scenario. You compare to a rookie salary 19yo Lauri who I soured on after 3y, and he looked like a sure-fire superstar compared to this lot. Jimmy Butler didn't go from an unplayable scrub to a superstar. He had a quiet rookie year tied to the bench, but was already getting DPOY votes in his 2nd season. I know he was older, but Coby, Ayo and Pat for example - in the 24yo range, NBA veterans, just getting outplayed by 29 teams' other starters.

[jnrjr79]

Bulls are going to give a pick to the Spurs at some point - whether that's 2025, 2026, or 2027. It's not like the pick is just this year and if we manage to keep it the pick owed is relinquished - we'll still owe them a first.

And there's no way, anyone can say what year it will be better to have that pick in.

Well sure, but it becomes a 2nd in 2028, so it's theoretically possible to avoid sending a 1st. But unlikely the Bulls would stay bad enough, long enough.

IMO, the urgency to keep the pick this year is 1) it's a better-regarded draft for talent, and 2) the Bulls need to get moving on development *now*, so getting the jump start has value rather than delaying a year.

A few follow up points and quibbles:

1. This idea that it doesn't matter which year we convey a pick to the Spurs has to stop. It matters tremendously to rebuilding. For trade purposes a fixed current lottery pick in a draft widely regarded as outstanding has significantly more trade value that an unknown pick in an unknown draft. That is not objectively debatable. This year's pick is worth the most to a rebuilding team because trading valuable lotter picks is one avenue to rebuild.

Yeah, agreed. This is what I was getting at with it being better to start "now." A current first is worth more than a future first because you get a player who you can build with now rather than waiting. This is why you get that traditional "one round of lesser value for a pick next year" rule when trading in the NFL. But I think it's *particularly* more valuable this year given what I understand the experts think of the 2025 draft quality.

2. I don't thin its necessarily all that unlikely for the Bulls to keep all their firsts if they trade off the vets and rebuild. It is not uncommon at all for a team who just commenced a blow-up rebuild to be in the bottom 8 for three straight years.

3. The concern with #2 is that AK, in AK fashion, really only "rebuilds" for one year. He gets a lottery pick he likes and immediately starts adding vets to get competitive quickly.

Oh, yeah, when I said it was unlikely the Bulls would stay bad long enough to simply not send a 1st, I mean given the current front office. Absent drafting Lebron 2.0 this offseason, if they wanted to stay bad that long, they probably could, though with the smoothened lottery odds, you'd need to make sure you stay super terrible.

[step]

The Bulls are currently the 10th seed, which is in fact a play-in spot.

The Bulls have played 20 games which is in fact only a quarter of the season.

So 10th right now is meaningless.

They have also played the most difficult part of their schedule and are about to play out one of the easiest schedule in the league. So you are right. They should end up much higher than 10th

Well, we're 11th now... and one does not expect the 76ers to stay at the bottom of the table either.

[drosestruts]

Just seems like the same old draft hype as always to me.

This time every year it seems like it's speculated that the upcoming draft has the potential to be great.

Young players are making less and less of an impact at the NBA-level in my eyes.

Scottie Barnes by all accounts is really good. He won ROY his rookie season. And guess what - the Raptors suck.

It's difficult to look at this draft and think - well Scottie Barnes can't do much for his team but Egor Denim is sure to be the guy to elevate the Bulls. Dylan Harper and his 28% 3P% will save the day.

[Infinity2152]

This draft being so great is pretty much based around one player, Cooper Flagg. People are not saying "Tank for Ace Bailey or Harper". I will bet anyone $5000 right now we do not get the number 1 pick, regardless of how bad we do. Any takers? The odds of getting the first pick are extremely low, even if you have the worst record, which we won't. So say we get the 8th pick this year and keep it. Zach and Vuc are probably gone next year, we have no elite young players, our draft pick is probably higher in the next draft. Even more so if the Spurs get our pick this year. Would it be better to have the number 8 pick in this "strong" draft, or the number 2-3 pick in the next one, because we're worse and didn't have a pick in 2025? There are guys like Cam Boozer and Dybantsa who look just as good as anyone in this class. So it's not the same pick in two different drafts, our pick in 2026 is likely to be higher if we don't draft in 2025 than our current prospects for the 2025 pick. There are a lot of bad teams this year.

We could legit lose Giddey and Ball for nothing and end up getting expirings/neutral contracts/future picks for Zach and Vuc. White, Terry and Ayo will be expiring and could be traded. Our draft pick could be MUCH higher in 2026.

[jnrjr79]

This draft being so great is pretty much based around one player, Cooper Flagg. People are not saying "Tank for Ace Bailey or Harper". I will bet anyone $5000 right now we do not get the number 1 pick, regardless of how bad we do. Any takers? The odds of getting the first pick are extremely low, even if you have the worst record, which we won't. So say we get the 8th pick this year and keep it. Zach and Vuc are probably gone next year, we have no elite young players, our draft pick is probably higher in the next draft. Even more so if the Spurs get our pick this year. Would it be better to have the number 8 pick in this "strong" draft, or the number 2-3 pick in the next one, because we're worse and didn't have a pick in 2025? There are guys like Cam Boozer and Dybantsa who look just as good as anyone in this class. So it's not the same pick in two different drafts, our pick in 2026 is likely to be higher if we don't draft in 2025 than our current prospects for the 2025 pick. There are a lot of bad teams this year.

Why would anyone bet that any particular team would win the draft lottery when the best chance any one team can have is 14%?

Bulls currently sit at a 6.8% chance based on being the 7th worst NBA team.

This is not the flex you think it is.

[DuckIII]

This time every year it seems like it's speculated that the upcoming draft has the potential to be great.

It’s very easy to prove this is not true, starting with even the most recent draft. I’ll just assume you don’t pay attention to such things closely, because this is very inaccurate.

[Infinity2152]

This draft being so great is pretty much based around one player, Cooper Flagg. People are not saying "Tank for Ace Bailey or Harper". I will bet anyone $5000 right now we do not get the number 1 pick, regardless of how bad we do. Any takers? The odds of getting the first pick are extremely low, even if you have the worst record, which we won't. So say we get the 8th pick this year and keep it. Zach and Vuc are probably gone next year, we have no elite young players, our draft pick is probably higher in the next draft. Even more so if the Spurs get our pick this year. Would it be better to have the number 8 pick in this "strong" draft, or the number 2-3 pick in the next one, because we're worse and didn't have a pick in 2025? There are guys like Cam Boozer and Dybantsa who look just as good as anyone in this class. So it's not the same pick in two different drafts, our pick in 2026 is likely to be higher if we don't draft in 2025 than our current prospects for the 2025 pick. There are a lot of bad teams this year.

Why would anyone bet that any particular team would win the draft lottery when the best chance any one team can have is 14%?

Bulls currently sit at a 6.8% chance based on being the 7th worst NBA team.

This is not the flex you think it is.

We're literally talking about tanking an entire season, millions of dollars in revenue, over the prosect of getting the number one pick, lmao! Again, nobody is talking about tanking to get picks 2-5. Haven't seen a single Tank for Bailey or whoever we can get at 3, 4, or 5. You think that's not gambling? When most posts in here are talking about how much we should lose to slightly increase those odds?? How much would you bet in your normal life on ANYTHING with a 6.8% chance? It's very easy to say the Bulls should do something with a 93% chance they won't get what they want when it's not your money. And I doubt the Bulls end the 7th worst team, they've been through the toughest part of their schedule already, which has been mentioned frequently.

The point was not to flex, the point is few people would bet their actual own money on such a low probability. I know the probability is extremely low, which is why I'm happy to take bets. I will bet my money on high probability outcomes.

Or are we tanking so Dylan Harper can turn this franchise around? Any top 10 pick will do?

[jnrjr79]

This draft being so great is pretty much based around one player, Cooper Flagg. People are not saying "Tank for Ace Bailey or Harper". I will bet anyone $5000 right now we do not get the number 1 pick, regardless of how bad we do. Any takers? The odds of getting the first pick are extremely low, even if you have the worst record, which we won't. So say we get the 8th pick this year and keep it. Zach and Vuc are probably gone next year, we have no elite young players, our draft pick is probably higher in the next draft. Even more so if the Spurs get our pick this year. Would it be better to have the number 8 pick in this "strong" draft, or the number 2-3 pick in the next one, because we're worse and didn't have a pick in 2025? There are guys like Cam Boozer and Dybantsa who look just as good as anyone in this class. So it's not the same pick in two different drafts, our pick in 2026 is likely to be higher if we don't draft in 2025 than our current prospects for the 2025 pick. There are a lot of bad teams this year.

Why would anyone bet that any particular team would win the draft lottery when the best chance any one team can have is 14%?

Bulls currently sit at a 6.8% chance based on being the 7th worst NBA team.

This is not the flex you think it is.

We're literally talking about tanking an entire season, millions of dollars in revenue, over the prosect of getting the number one pick, lmao! Again, nobody is talking about tanking to get picks 2-5. Haven't seen a single Tank for Bailey or whoever we can get at 3, 4, or 5. You think that's not gambling? When most posts in here are talking about how much we should lose to slightly increase those odds?? How much would you bet in your normal life on ANYTHING with a 6.8% chance?

Or are we tanking so Dylan Harper can turn this franchise around? Any top 10 pick will do?

I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, Cooper Flagg is by far the most wanted pick and therefore the person people joke about tanking for, but the pro-tank people would be perfectly thrilled to land pick #2. It's not a one-prospect draft.

[Infinity2152]

Why would anyone bet that any particular team would win the draft lottery when the best chance any one team can have is 14%?

Bulls currently sit at a 6.8% chance based on being the 7th worst NBA team.

This is not the flex you think it is.

We're literally talking about tanking an entire season, millions of dollars in revenue, over the prosect of getting the number one pick, lmao! Again, nobody is talking about tanking to get picks 2-5. Haven't seen a single Tank for Bailey or whoever we can get at 3, 4, or 5. You think that's not gambling? When most posts in here are talking about how much we should lose to slightly increase those odds?? How much would you bet in your normal life on ANYTHING with a 6.8% chance?

Or are we tanking so Dylan Harper can turn this franchise around? Any top 10 pick will do?

I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, Cooper Flagg is by far the most wanted pick and therefore the person people joke about tanking for, but the pro-tank people would be perfectly thrilled to land pick #2. It's not a one-prospect draft.

You have no idea what I'm talking about. How about look through the last 1000 posts and see how many times Cooper Flagg is referenced as what we're shooting for. Then show me another name mentioned 1/100th times as much, outside of a best prospects thread. Sometimes we just have to be real, can't recall the last post I've seen talking about tanking that mentions any player other than Flagg. Then lets be real on the prospect of getting pick 2 either, which is also HIGHLY unlikely. Let's talk about much more likely options, where even if we're the 3rd or 4th worst team, we're much more likely to end up 4-8 than 1 or 2. Tell me how many sure-fire prospects you see in this draft, and we can calculate the odds from there.

We already destroyed the lottery odds drafting Rose with a 1.7% chance. Two teams were tied for best odds at number 1 pick last year, Detroit and Washington. One got number 2, one got number 5, the worst they could possibly get. Number 1 went to the Hawks with a 3% chance. For teams not in the bottom 4 of the league the odds are crazy low at getting a top 3 pick.