PG: Darko fist pump seals the deal. Raps win.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

m
A higher pick is always going to be better than a lower pick. That is a statistical fact.

…but that’s not a statistical fact at all. A higher pick has a higher likelihood of becoming a good player, sure, but “is always going to be better than a lower pick” is patently untrue.

The draft pick itself, not the player selected.

Picking 1st is better than picking 3rd which is better than picking 9th. The odds of the player you want still being on the board decrease the later you pick.

Some people are arguing that you can find elite talent anywhere in the draft. And you can. But the draft is still an odds game and a higher pick will always be better.

But what you are referring to is the outcome of having more players to chose from, not the outcome of what players actually are.

What history has shown is in fact that higher picks and having the ability to chose from more players doesn't necessarily translate to getting a better player. This is the statistical fact......you are only referring to having a better probability which isn't statistical fact....it's probability

Given the fact that we KNOW that having a better pick DOES NOT necessarily translate into better players or lead to team success, you have to build a team knowing this risk and decide if it is worth it to go for a higher pick.

[DelAbbot]

lol, yeah it’s crazy how people believe that. Never a bad thing when a team full of young players win games.

It’s not like we are going to grab the 25th pick. We are going to have a good pick. Our start to the year was so horrid and put us in a hole.

No it isn't. It's completely an eye of the beholder situation. If you believe we are still lacking a true #1 then it is optimal for us to be in the top 5. Where is the upside in getting the 9th pick? It means that team still sucks and we don't get any playoff games. If we are going to wallow in no man's land this year we should be trying to optimize our draft pick. Make the push next year.

There is no worse place to be than picking between 7-11th. No playoffs and no high lottery pick. Picking late lotto would at least mean our young guys have made a big jump and that would change the outlook for this team long term. Picking 9th just means the questions of our core's upside still remain.

Yeah...up top you can grab a Scoot Henderson instead of a Gradey Dick.

Just think how much better we would be.

....

That's not how to make decision based on probabilities (higher pick has higher probability acquiring a ceiling raising talent), and availability of choice. You're implying you believe if we had that 3rd pick our FO would have picked Scoot because he was hyped to be a top 3 pick? That's not true.

Even if Scoot Henderson turns into a worse career than Gradey Dick, doesn't mean that single sample is proof those two draft positions (3 vs 13) have the same impact in the future (2025 draft).

[mdenny]

…but that’s not a statistical fact at all. A higher pick has a higher likelihood of becoming a good player, sure, but “is always going to be better than a lower pick” is patently untrue.

The draft pick itself, not the player selected.

Picking 1st is better than picking 3rd which is better than picking 9th. The odds of the player you want still being on the board decrease the later you pick.

Some people are arguing that you can find elite talent anywhere in the draft. And you can. But the draft is still an odds game and a higher pick will always be better.

But what you are referring to is the outcome of having more players to chose from, not the outcome of what players actually are.

What history has shown is in fact that higher picks and having the ability to chose from more players doesn't necessarily translate to getting a better player. This is the statistical fact......you are only referring to having a better probability which isn't statistical fact....it's probability

Given the fact that we KNOW that having a better pick DOES NOT necessarily translate into better players or lead to team success, you have to build a team knowing this risk and decide if it is worth it to go for a higher pick.

It's not even true that the probabilities are "drastically" different between top 5 and 6 to 14.

[DelAbbot]

Yeah...up top you can grab a Scoot Henderson instead of a Gradey Dick.

Just think how much better we would be.

....

Or just be dense and think all draft picks are made in a vacuum and selected by the same person.

Lol...just accept reality that you can find good players at any spot and it's not a waste if we only got the 9th pick.

And fwiw, I am ok with selective coaching or scratched to add a few extra losses. But if it's #9 because a bunch of our young kids won us games, it's not good and gloom.

You are absolutely right that Masai can find good players at any spot of the draft. But it is still true that a higher draft position gives Masai the chance to draft a better / higher ceiling good player.

Let's say he drafts someone at 4th overall pick that outperformed expectations for that draft position vs he drafts someone at 13th overall that outperformed expectations for that draft position. Does that mean the obtaining the 4th pick is not that different to obtaining the 13th pick?

I was obviously talking about Scottie Barnes (4th) vs Gradey Dick (13th). Both are good picks. If hypothetically they were in the same draft at their respective draft positions, you would think a few regular season wins in a losing season is not an issue, because we still get to draft Gradey Dick instead of Scottie Barnes? It's pretty gloomy to me, if we made that trade-off of Scottie Barnes for more entertaining regular season wins + Gradey Dick. I'm using this example because historically (thus probability), it's more likely to find a Scottie Barnes at 4th pick than 13th pick.

[Raps in 4]

…but that’s not a statistical fact at all. A higher pick has a higher likelihood of becoming a good player, sure, but “is always going to be better than a lower pick” is patently untrue.

The draft pick itself, not the player selected.

Picking 1st is better than picking 3rd which is better than picking 9th. The odds of the player you want still being on the board decrease the later you pick.

Some people are arguing that you can find elite talent anywhere in the draft. And you can. But the draft is still an odds game and a higher pick will always be better.

But what you are referring to is the outcome of having more players to chose from, not the outcome of what players actually are.

What history has shown is in fact that higher picks and having the ability to chose from more players doesn't necessarily translate to getting a better player. This is the statistical fact......you are only referring to having a better probability which isn't statistical fact....it's probability

Given the fact that we KNOW that having a better pick DOES NOT necessarily translate into better players or lead to team success, you have to build a team knowing this risk and decide if it is worth it to go for a higher pick.

It's 2021. Masai wants to draft Scottie Barnes. Masai takes Scottie Barnes with the 4th overall pick.

If Masai drafts 9th, there is a strong possibility that Scottie Barnes is no longer on the board.

This is such a simple concept it shouldn't need to be explained. It's not something that can even be debated. The higher you pick, the more likely you are to be able to draft the player you want. That statement is a fact.

[DelAbbot]

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

Look at that drop-off in probability of drafting an all-star from 1 to 8.

After that there is not that big a difference between 9 to 20. But it is still objectively and unequivocally true that picking at 9th is better than 13th. The cost of moving from 13th to 9th in a losing season is more losses, which is no cost at all since we are in "year 1 of rebuilding" in Darko's words.

[DelAbbot]

m
A higher pick is always going to be better than a lower pick. That is a statistical fact.

…but that’s not a statistical fact at all. A higher pick has a higher likelihood of becoming a good player, sure, but “is always going to be better than a lower pick” is patently untrue.

The draft pick itself, not the player selected.

Picking 1st is better than picking 3rd which is better than picking 9th. The odds of the player you want still being on the board decrease the later you pick.

Some people are arguing that you can find elite talent anywhere in the draft. And you can. But the draft is still an odds game and a higher pick will always be better.

Reading what earthtone posted, I don't think you have a chance to change their mind.

The reason why posters can argue "you can find elite talent anywhere in the draft" is because survivorship bias is common.

[ATLTimekeeper]

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

Look at that drop-off in probability of drafting an all-star from 1 to 8.

After that there is not that big a difference between 9 to 20. But it is still objectively and unequivocally true that picking at 9th is better than 13th. The cost of moving from 13th to 9th in a losing season is more losses, which is no cost at all since we are in "year 1 of rebuilding" in Darko's words.

The large drop off is between 1-3, but remember this is just 'all-star,' which we know covers LeBron to Ben Simmons. We just dumped two all-stars to build around Scottie. Brandon Ingram is going to be available for fairly cheap.

Team PR branding has no correlation at all with 'cost,' so it doesn't matter what Darko says to placate angry fans that just had to watch him coach one of the prospects they were 'really high on' that was betting on games. We don't know what the cost is of trying to lose basketball games, and we don't know what the benefits are. It's a really noisy way of team-building.

[Shakril]

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

Look at that drop-off in probability of drafting an all-star from 1 to 8.

After that there is not that big a difference between 9 to 20. But it is still objectively and unequivocally true that picking at 9th is better than 13th. The cost of moving from 13th to 9th in a losing season is more losses, which is no cost at all since we are in "year 1 of rebuilding" in Darko's words.

Please make a graph of how many of those top 5 draft picks All-Stars (taking the middle) won a title with the Team they were drafted by. That is much more important and you will see, the numbers are drasticly worse. Thats why tanking doesnt make sense, it just is stupid. Boston is a very good example. They never tanked, they were always building and developing, even if it means to let the young players make mistakes and have a bad season. But in the end it pays off. Tanking doesnt.

[Tha Cynic]

The two best players on this team by far are Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl and both were drafted by the Raptors in the top 10.

It's exciting to think we can add another winning and positively impactful player with another top 8 or so pick. Masai and team are great at finding guys everywhere but if the best talent is already gone before they pick, they can only find a guy who's better than his draft position. We want the Raptors to draft best player in draft type of possibility. It's not hard to understand the difference between a top 5 pick vs a top 15. If you trust your team's ability to draft and develop, you want to give them the biggest pot to pick from where all the most versatile talent is still available.

Why are we arguing this when the Raptors have probably lost some games the best way you would want them to where young guys are clearly getting better while draft position is still high? This team has more talent than the bottom dwellers. That's a good thing, but you also need to manipulate the process to get the best player available in next draft.

[Duffman100]

The two best players on this team by far are Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl and both were drafted by the Raptors in the top 10.

It's exciting to think we can add another winning and positively impactful player with another top 8 or so pick. Masai and team are great at finding guys everywhere but if the best talent is already gone before they pick, they can only find a guy who's better than his draft position. We want the Raptors to draft best player in draft type of possibility. It's not hard to understand the difference between a top 5 pick vs a top 15. If you trust your team's ability to draft and develop, you want to give them the biggest pot to pick from where all the most versatile talent is still available.

Why are we arguing this when the Raptors have probably lost some games the best way you would want them to where young guys are clearly getting better while draft position is still high? This team has more talent than the bottom dwellers. That's a good thing, but you also need to manipulate the process to get the best player available in next draft.

In reality though there's only so much you can do.

Do you punt an entire year of player development? That's risky in itself as well.

[Tha Cynic]

The two best players on this team by far are Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl and both were drafted by the Raptors in the top 10.

It's exciting to think we can add another winning and positively impactful player with another top 8 or so pick. Masai and team are great at finding guys everywhere but if the best talent is already gone before they pick, they can only find a guy who's better than his draft position. We want the Raptors to draft best player in draft type of possibility. It's not hard to understand the difference between a top 5 pick vs a top 15. If you trust your team's ability to draft and develop, you want to give them the biggest pot to pick from where all the most versatile talent is still available.

Why are we arguing this when the Raptors have probably lost some games the best way you would want them to where young guys are clearly getting better while draft position is still high? This team has more talent than the bottom dwellers. That's a good thing, but you also need to manipulate the process to get the best player available in next draft.

In reality though there's only so much you can do.

Do you punt an entire year of player development? That's risky in itself as well.

You're not going to keep out your young players for long. You let these young guys play while keeping out Olynyk, Brown, Quickley, etc. They're doing it the best way possible. Poeltl can have a nagging injury towards the end of the year where he's sidelined for a month or so. Barnes can have a small injury that requires extra time. You can remove all the shooting you have at one time due to nagging injuries.

Winning with young guys playing major roles is a good thing. But this year does seem like them best year for a while to really manipulate and put themselves in a great position. You don't do something like this say last season. The Raptors are doing the best they can do. Even if they don't end up with the best draft pick, they're increasing player value where they can consolidate into a star in the future. RJ needs to keep improving and so does Quickley. Both are pieces that can hopefully be used in trades in the future.

[Duffman100]

The two best players on this team by far are Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl and both were drafted by the Raptors in the top 10.

It's exciting to think we can add another winning and positively impactful player with another top 8 or so pick. Masai and team are great at finding guys everywhere but if the best talent is already gone before they pick, they can only find a guy who's better than his draft position. We want the Raptors to draft best player in draft type of possibility. It's not hard to understand the difference between a top 5 pick vs a top 15. If you trust your team's ability to draft and develop, you want to give them the biggest pot to pick from where all the most versatile talent is still available.

Why are we arguing this when the Raptors have probably lost some games the best way you would want them to where young guys are clearly getting better while draft position is still high? This team has more talent than the bottom dwellers. That's a good thing, but you also need to manipulate the process to get the best player available in next draft.

In reality though there's only so much you can do.

Do you punt an entire year of player development? That's risky in itself as well.

You're not going to keep out your young players for long. You let these young guys play while keeping out Olynyk, Brown, Quickley, etc. They're doing it the best way possible. Poeltl can have a nagging injury towards the end of the year where he's sidelined for a month or so. Barnes can have a small injury that requires extra time. You can remove all the shooting you have at one time due to nagging injuries.

Winning with you guys playing the major role is a good thing. But this year does seem like them best year for a while to really manipulate and put themselves in a great position. You don't do something like this say last season.

You can't keep out Quickley for the entire season. Agreed on some clever Poeltl injuries.

Even still, us being bottom 5 record in the league is going to be tough. Just so many bad teams.

[Tha Cynic]

In reality though there's only so much you can do.

Do you punt an entire year of player development? That's risky in itself as well.

Yeah you're not keeping out Quickley for that long. Quickley and RJ have both been negative players so far so you can remove Barnes or Poeltl later to keep tanking.

You're not going to keep out your young players for long. You let these young guys play while keeping out Olynyk, Brown, Quickley, etc. They're doing it the best way possible. Poeltl can have a nagging injury towards the end of the year where he's sidelined for a month or so. Barnes can have a small injury that requires extra time. You can remove all the shooting you have at one time due to nagging injuries.

Winning with you guys playing the major role is a good thing. But this year does seem like them best year for a while to really manipulate and put themselves in a great position. You don't do something like this say last season.

You can't keep out Quickley for the entire season. Agreed on some clever Poeltl injuries.

Even still, us being bottom 5 record in the league is going to be tough. Just so many bad teams.

Yeah I always said this team won't be bottom 5 when everyone is back. We're too talented and play too hard. I think we pick 5-8 unless we get unlucky and drop below our record to draft projection. My biggest fear this year is the lottery calls making us go the other way.

[Duffman100]

You're not going to keep out your young players for long. You let these young guys play while keeping out Olynyk, Brown, Quickley, etc. They're doing it the best way possible. Poeltl can have a nagging injury towards the end of the year where he's sidelined for a month or so. Barnes can have a small injury that requires extra time. You can remove all the shooting you have at one time due to nagging injuries.

Winning with you guys playing the major role is a good thing. But this year does seem like them best year for a while to really manipulate and put themselves in a great position. You don't do something like this say last season.

You can't keep out Quickley for the entire season. Agreed on some clever Poeltl injuries.

Even still, us being bottom 5 record in the league is going to be tough. Just so many bad teams.

Yeah I always said this team won't be bottom 5 when everyone is back. We're too talented and play too hard. I think we pick 5-8 unless we get unlucky and drop below our record to draft projection. My biggest fear this year is the lottery calls making us go the other way.

Yup dropping to 10 or so would be ROUGH.

But stay optimistic, lottery could go our way and we end up top 3.

[ItsDanger]

That chart by draft position has a pattern that is consistent on different metrics ( games played, win shares, etc). The pattern holds in other sports although they have bigger roster sizes, different positions, and so on. Don't bother arguing it's relevance, you're just wrong. But you can argue it's application and decisions made around that trend. But please stop denying that there is much higher return on investment with higher draft selections.

[Tripod]

Let's just put it this way, if we get extra wins because Barnes, RJ, IQ, Dick, Ochai, etc... win us games, you "should" be able to live with that. Especially with Darko also playing guys like Mogbo, Walter, etc...

If we were winning games due to FVV, Siakam and OG at their ages, then yeah it's pointless.

hard to get mad at the kids all playing hard and FOR one another while playing unselfishly and if we get a few extra wins, so be it.

[Los_29]

Yes, it is.

lol, yeah it’s crazy how people believe that. Never a bad thing when a team full of young players win games.

It’s not like we are going to grab the 25th pick. We are going to have a good pick. Our start to the year was so horrid and put us in a hole.

No it isn't. It's completely an eye of the beholder situation. If you believe we are still lacking a true #1 then it is optimal for us to be in the top 5. Where is the upside in getting the 9th pick? It means that team still sucks and we don't get any playoff games. If we are going to wallow in no man's land this year we should be trying to optimize our draft pick. Make the push next year.

There is no worse place to be than picking between 7-11th. No playoffs and no high lottery pick. Picking late lotto would at least mean our young guys have made a big jump and that would change the outlook for this team long term. Picking 9th just means the questions of our core's upside still remain.

We had such a horrid start due to injuries. If we were able to somehow get to around 30-35 wins then that means we essentially played .500 ball for the final 55 games of the year. That would be super impressive given the age of this roster.

Don’t get me wrong I’d prefer a higher pick. But like I said, it’s not the end of the world if we pick lower because that’d be a result of our young guys playing well.

[mihaic]

RJ 37 points, let's get it!

Where is Dennis37, he'll like this.

He seems to have gone missing. He would be all over this.

Actually he lives in Hanover Ontario and is dealing with a frozen 4 foot high snow bank left by the plow and 2 to 3 feet of snow on his roof.

Lol I hope you digged out. My nephew lives near bracebridge, had no power for a couple of days.

[Dennis 37]

Where is Dennis37, he'll like this.

He seems to have gone missing. He would be all over this.

Actually he lives in Hanover Ontario and is dealing with a frozen 4 foot high snow bank left by the plow and 2 to 3 feet of snow on his roof.

Lol I hope you digged out. My nephew lives near bracebridge, had no power for a couple of days.

Luckily didn't lose power like in Bracebridge. Still have some roof to clear.