Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE — Hakeem Olajuwon

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Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE — Hakeem Olajuwon 

Post#1 » by AEnigma » Tue Dec 3, 2024 12:12 am

General Project Discussion Thread

Discussion and Results from the 2010 Project

In this thread we'll discuss and vote on the top 5 players and the top 3 offensive and defensive players of 1993-94.

Player of the Year (POY)(5) — most accomplished overall player of that season
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)(3) — most accomplished offensive player of that season
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)(3) — most accomplished defensive player of that season

Voting will close sometime after 19:00PM EST on Thursday, December 5th. I have no issue keeping it open so long as discussion is strong, but please try to vote within the first three days.

Valid ballots must provide an explanation for your choices that gives us a window into how you thought and why you came to the decisions you did. You can vote for any of the three awards — although they must be complete votes — but I will only tally votes for an award when there are at least five valid ballots submitted for it.

Remember, your votes must be based on THIS season. This is intended to give wide wiggle room for personal philosophies while still providing a boundary to make sure the award can be said to mean something. You can factor things like degree of difficulty as defined by you, but what you can't do is ignore how the player actually played on the floor this season in favor of what he might have done if only...

You may change your vote, but if you do, edit your original post rather than writing, "hey, ignore my last post, this is my real post until I change my mind again.” I similarly ask that ballots be kept in one post rather than making one post for Player of the Year, one post for Offensive Player of the Year, and/or one post for Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to provide your reasoning that way for the sake of discussion, fine, but please keep the official votes themselves in one aggregated post. Finally, for ease of tallying, I prefer for you to place your votes at the beginning of your balloting post, with some formatting that makes them stand out. I will not discount votes which fail to follow these requests, but I am certainly more likely to overlook them.

Contrarian votes can be and have been sincere, but they look a lot more sincere when you take the time to fully present your reasoning rather than transparently pretend nothing is amiss.
Doctor MJ wrote:Vote sincerely. Do not move a player down in your voting to give another player an advantage. I would encourage every voter to give some explanations while they do their voting - but particularly if you have a top 5 that deviates strongly with the norm and you haven't expressed your thoughts on it earlier in the thread. If I'm not satisfied, I may ask you for more of an explanation - and it may come to actually booting people out of the project.

The rules here are that you've got to use the same type of thinking for all 5 votes. I understand putting more thought into #1 than #5, but I don't want PJ Brown votes. Voters do Brown type votes to give a guy an honorable mention. Makes sense if people only care about who finishes 1st, but I've been clear that I want to measure more than that. I've been trying to encourage literal "honorable mentions" to serve that purpose, and I'd ask that people use that as the way they honor guys who did something special but who aren't actually a top 5 guy that year.

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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#2 » by One_and_Done » Tue Dec 3, 2024 1:03 am

This should be a easy vote at least. Hakeem at #1.

Then some order of Shaq, D.Rob & Pippen.

5th might be a tougher decision.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#3 » by AEnigma » Tue Dec 3, 2024 1:07 am

One_and_Done wrote:This should be a easy vote at least. Hakeem at #1.

Then some order of Shaq, D.Rob & Pippen.

5th might be a tougher decision.

You notoriously have next to no respect for Stockton, so how do you reconcile Malone so comfortably handling Robinson when they met in the postseason?
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#4 » by eminence » Tue Dec 3, 2024 1:08 am

The first year we have extensive +/- data for if folks would like to check that out. I believe it was originally season long cumulative +/- that Pollack and his team recorded, and then these on and on/off estimates (very accurate ones) were made by a user on this board whose name escapes me - Elgee, Trex, Idk.

*Known issues - players who played for multiple teams are not reported and I believe a bunch of Timberwolves are missing

Low minutes guys were also not included (750 minute cut-off I think)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12wBquVtyX4RKXDFtFMLt2QvqfICO_6SCKwm3s_dkb-Q/edit?pli=1&gid=0#gid=0
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#5 » by One_and_Done » Tue Dec 3, 2024 1:11 am

AEnigma wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:This should be a easy vote at least. Hakeem at #1.

Then some order of Shaq, D.Rob & Pippen.

5th might be a tougher decision.

You notoriously have next to no respect for Stockton, so how do you reconcile Malone so comfortably handling Robinson when they met in the postseason?

I call Stockton a fringe all-nba teamer, which is what he was. Alot more useful than D.Rob's Robin, who was the problematic Rodman. Tbh Hornacek was likely better than the Spurs next best player. RS matters too. That said, I'm likely leaning Malone 5th right now.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#6 » by trelos6 » Tue Dec 3, 2024 1:45 am

OPOY

1.David Robinson. 29.4 pp75, +4.9 rTS%. Team rOrtg of +4.1

2.Shaquille O’Neal. 27.9 pp75 on +7.7 rTS%. Team rOrtg of +4.5

3.Reggie Miller. Yes, Stockton was the best passer and playmaker in the league, but he still didn’t drive that great of an offense (+2.3). Reggie on the other hand, was 23 pp75 on +10.8 rTS%, with his team rOrtg only slightly worse at +1.5. In the playoffs, Miller upped his scoring significantly and while his efficiency also halved, +5 rTS% is still pretty good. Mark Price was also strongly considered.



DPOY

1.Patrick Ewing. Anchored the best defense in the regular season and a top 2 defense in the playoffs.

2.Hakeem Olajuwon. Anchored a top 2 defense in the regular season. And an above average defense in the playoffs.

3.Dikembe Mutombo. It was close between Mutombo and Robinson, but I’ll give Dikembe the slight edge thanks to his team’s better defensive ratings in the regular season and playoffs.


POY

1.Hakeem Olajuwon. +2.36 OPIPM, +3.83 DPIPM, +6.2 PIPM. 24.06 Wins Added. 25.3 pp75 on +3.7 rTS%. Slightly worse in ‘94, but due to a number of reasons, his team managed to go all the way in ‘94. Held Ewing to a 85 ORtg in the finals, and was also huge in G7 vs Phoenix.

2.David Robinson. Unstoppable in the regular season. +5.17 OPIPM, +3.18 DPIPM, +8.34 PIPM. 22.55 Wins Added. Was not great in the playoffs, otherwise, we’d be talking about the POY.

3.Shaquille O’Neal. +4.78 OPIPM, +1.44 DPIPM, +6.23 PIPM. 18.30 Wins Added. Big increases in scoring and efficiency from his rookie campaign.

4.Karl Malone. +3.19 OPIPM, +1.64 DPIPM, +4.82 PIPM. 19.02 Wins Added. In the past few seasons, Malone’s often been my #6 guy in POY, but with MJ out, even a slightly down season for Karl is good enough for 4th. 23.9 pp75, +2.2 rTS%.

5.Scottie Pippen. +2.41 OPIPM, +2.54 DPIPM, +4.95 PIPM. 15.29 Wins Added. Performs well overall, without MJ. Shows he can be the #1 option on a 50 win team. 22.5 pp75 on +1.6 rTS%. A top 10 playmaker in the league, to go with his usual amazing defense. Strongly considered Ewing here, as his defense was phenomenal. But his offensive package started to decline, and Barkley’s once lofty rTS% has started to wane. Miller was also in consideration, but defensively he was lacking.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#7 » by eminence » Tue Dec 3, 2024 2:22 am

Notable thoughts from the +/- data:

-McMillan was probably the best bench player in the league, but it's still a bench player playing bench player minutes that dropped further in the playoffs, don't go crazy. Helps drive the Sonics stars down a bit in the on/off.
-The Hawks starting lineup was surprisingly dominant in the RS, usually we might suspect that would've translated better to the POs. Losing to the Pacers seems solidly disappointing. Would be nice if we had the traded player data, maybe the Nique for Manning deal wasn't a good idea?
-Robinson/Malone/Hakeem the trio of guys that seem to me to really stand out as having both elite leaguewide numbers and having a clear separation from their teammates (lineup grouping can be troublesome without regressions)
-Sprewell/Richmond pretty disappointing for All-NBA guys, maybe Payton too, but there's the McMillan issue. Rest of the All-NBA guys measure out in a pretty similar range.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#8 » by penbeast0 » Tue Dec 3, 2024 2:35 am

This is Hakeem's keystone year. Despite this, the best team in the league (RS) was not Houston but Seattle led by Payton and Kemp with veteran forwards Detlef Schrempf and Sam Perkins providing good support plus a good bench. Then, in one of the most notorious upsets ever, they were beaten in the first round by Mutombo's Nuggets. 58 win Houston was the second best team in the RS and won the title beating one of the two 57 win teams, Ewing's Knicks in a 7 game series so it was far from a walkover year for the Rockets.

Atlanta, Phoenix, San Antonio, Chicago, Utah, Golden State, and Orlando also won 50+ and 47 win Indiana went to the ECF.

David Robinson wins the scoring title, Rodman the rebounding title, but Robinson has a poor shooting series in the 1st round, no one else on his team steps up (next best was 10.5 ppg) and they fall quickly. Stockton wins the assist title to team with Karl Malone to beat the Spurs then the fall in the WCF to Houston as the team shoots poorly.

Box score compilation stats (RS of course) all point to David Robinson as the RS MVP, with Hakeem, Shaq, and Stockton (not Malone interestingly enough) being the next 3 most favored.

1. Hakeem -- his year by rep, his year by playoffs
2. David Robinson -- regular seasons matter
3. Ewing
4. Shaq -- heck of a year for centers
5. Malone (or Stockton) -- depending on how you think the primacy should go
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#9 » by eminence » Tue Dec 3, 2024 2:42 am

Jazz went 8-1 against San Antonio on the season, and I'll note that it was Malone defending Robinson while David's scoring tanked in the POs.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#10 » by One_and_Done » Tue Dec 3, 2024 3:15 am

Fairly easy vote for me.

1. Hakeem.
Clearly the most impactful player in the league this year with Jordan in retirement, especially in the PS when it mattered.

2. Robinson
3. Shaq
4. K.Malone
5. Pippen

These guys are all pretty close for me, and it depends how you value different things. I think D.Rob was the most impactful in the RS by far, but obviously didn’t have the same impact in the playoffs. I don’t hold it against him too much, because I think he had a really flawed roster with a lot of issues. I think the Jazz had the better team.

On further consideration, I had to put K.Malone over Pippen. His impact across the course of the year was stronger. Pippen had a nice, MVP calibre year, but I can’t seriously rate him over Mailman. Shaq has a strong case to be #2, but I’ve ultimately left him at #3 for now.

Ewing I don’t think much of. He had a deep team around him, and was a huge disappointment in the finals.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#11 » by 70sFan » Tue Dec 3, 2024 6:33 am

It's not an easy year to decide. Hakeem is the number one of course, but then you have the other centers (Shaq/Robinson/Ewing), fantastic season from Malone and Pippen, but also Reggie Miller who was likely the best offensive player in the league that season.

I am waiting for the discussion before deciding, all I know is that people overrate Shaq if they put him in their in top 3.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#12 » by trelos6 » Tue Dec 3, 2024 6:48 am

70sFan wrote:It's not an easy year to decide. Hakeem is the number one of course, but then you have the other centers (Shaq/Robinson/Ewing), fantastic season from Malone and Pippen, but also Reggie Miller who was likely the best offensive player in the league that season.

I am waiting for the discussion before deciding, all I know is that people overrate Shaq if they put him in their in top 3.


If Ewing was better than 25.5 +1.2, I would have had him at 3. His D was great. But he didn't quite have the offensive impact of prior seasons.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#13 » by One_and_Done » Tue Dec 3, 2024 7:06 am

70sFan wrote:It's not an easy year to decide. Hakeem is the number one of course, but then you have the other centers (Shaq/Robinson/Ewing), fantastic season from Malone and Pippen, but also Reggie Miller who was likely the best offensive player in the league that season.

I am waiting for the discussion before deciding, all I know is that people overrate Shaq if they put him in their in top 3.

The Pacers won 47 games this year, and that's not something you can attribute to a poor support cast. Between all-star Rik Smits, all-star Davis brothers, ace defender Derrick McKey, and solid bench players like vet Byron Scott, the Pacers had alot of (unsung) talent. They did better in the playoffs, and good for them, but Reggie doesn't belong in the discussion with guys like Shaq, the centers, and Pippen.

Reggie Miller is constantly overrated by people who point to his advance stats, but if he was that impactful then the Pacers would have been a contender before the team got stacked, rather than winning 41 games a year (or less) in the 6 years prior). To this point in his career Reggie had made zero all-nba teams, garnered zero MVP votes, and made a single all-star team. Nobody thought of him as big time star in the moment.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#14 » by 70sFan » Tue Dec 3, 2024 8:03 am

One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:It's not an easy year to decide. Hakeem is the number one of course, but then you have the other centers (Shaq/Robinson/Ewing), fantastic season from Malone and Pippen, but also Reggie Miller who was likely the best offensive player in the league that season.

I am waiting for the discussion before deciding, all I know is that people overrate Shaq if they put him in their in top 3.

The Pacers won 47 games this year, and that's not something you can attribute to a poor support cast. Between all-star Rik Smits, all-star Davis brothers, ace defender Derrick McKey, and solid bench players like vet Byron Scott, the Pacers had alot of (unsung) talent. They did better in the playoffs, and good for them, but Reggie doesn't belong in the discussion with guys like Shaq, the centers, and Pippen.

Reggie Miller is constantly overrated by people who point to his advance stats, but if he was that impactful then the Pacers would have been a contender before the team got stacked, rather than winning 41 games a year (or less) in the 6 years prior). To this point in his career Reggie had made zero all-nba teams, garnered zero MVP votes, and made a single all-star team. Nobody thought of him as big time star in the moment.

They had +3.3 SRS and 51 projected wins, so 47 wins underrate their performance. Then they went on beating two solid teams in the playoffs without HC advantage and gave the Knicks (supposedly stacked team) hell. Reggie played fantastic in all of these series.

Pacers were good all-around, so were Jazz, Knicks and Magic. Miller had a better postseason run than all of these players with the exception of Hakeem (definitely) and arguably Pippen/Ewing.

About recognition - to this point Shaq made zero all-nba teams and made a single all-star team - does it matter? Shaq's team got destroyed by the Pacers in the first round and Reggie outplayed him clearly.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#15 » by One_and_Done » Tue Dec 3, 2024 8:07 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:It's not an easy year to decide. Hakeem is the number one of course, but then you have the other centers (Shaq/Robinson/Ewing), fantastic season from Malone and Pippen, but also Reggie Miller who was likely the best offensive player in the league that season.

I am waiting for the discussion before deciding, all I know is that people overrate Shaq if they put him in their in top 3.

The Pacers won 47 games this year, and that's not something you can attribute to a poor support cast. Between all-star Rik Smits, all-star Davis brothers, ace defender Derrick McKey, and solid bench players like vet Byron Scott, the Pacers had alot of (unsung) talent. They did better in the playoffs, and good for them, but Reggie doesn't belong in the discussion with guys like Shaq, the centers, and Pippen.

Reggie Miller is constantly overrated by people who point to his advance stats, but if he was that impactful then the Pacers would have been a contender before the team got stacked, rather than winning 41 games a year (or less) in the 6 years prior). To this point in his career Reggie had made zero all-nba teams, garnered zero MVP votes, and made a single all-star team. Nobody thought of him as big time star in the moment.

They had +3.3 SRS and 51 projected wins, so 47 wins underrate their performance. Then they went on beating two solid teams in the playoffs without HC advantage and gave the Knicks (supposedly stacked team) hell. Reggie played fantastic in all of these series.

Pacers were good all-around, so were Jazz, Knicks and Magic. Miller had a better postseason run than all of these players with the exception of Hakeem (definitely) and arguably Pippen/Ewing.

About recognition - to this point Shaq made zero all-nba teams and made a single all-star team - does it matter? Shaq's team got destroyed by the Pacers in the first round and Reggie outplayed him clearly.

Reggie's TEAM outplayed Shaq, Shaq was the mote impactful player this year. The Knicks were stacked, but we're not comparing Reggie to Ewing here, who is nowhere on my ballot.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#16 » by 70sFan » Tue Dec 3, 2024 8:51 am

One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:The Pacers won 47 games this year, and that's not something you can attribute to a poor support cast. Between all-star Rik Smits, all-star Davis brothers, ace defender Derrick McKey, and solid bench players like vet Byron Scott, the Pacers had alot of (unsung) talent. They did better in the playoffs, and good for them, but Reggie doesn't belong in the discussion with guys like Shaq, the centers, and Pippen.

Reggie Miller is constantly overrated by people who point to his advance stats, but if he was that impactful then the Pacers would have been a contender before the team got stacked, rather than winning 41 games a year (or less) in the 6 years prior). To this point in his career Reggie had made zero all-nba teams, garnered zero MVP votes, and made a single all-star team. Nobody thought of him as big time star in the moment.

They had +3.3 SRS and 51 projected wins, so 47 wins underrate their performance. Then they went on beating two solid teams in the playoffs without HC advantage and gave the Knicks (supposedly stacked team) hell. Reggie played fantastic in all of these series.

Pacers were good all-around, so were Jazz, Knicks and Magic. Miller had a better postseason run than all of these players with the exception of Hakeem (definitely) and arguably Pippen/Ewing.

About recognition - to this point Shaq made zero all-nba teams and made a single all-star team - does it matter? Shaq's team got destroyed by the Pacers in the first round and Reggie outplayed him clearly.

Reggie's TEAM outplayed Shaq, Shaq was the mote impactful player this year. The Knicks were stacked, but we're not comparing Reggie to Ewing here, who is nowhere on my ballot.

Both things are true - Pacers outplayed Magic and Reggie outplayed Shaq. If you disagree, please elaborate.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#17 » by OhayoKD » Tue Dec 3, 2024 9:06 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:They had +3.3 SRS and 51 projected wins, so 47 wins underrate their performance. Then they went on beating two solid teams in the playoffs without HC advantage and gave the Knicks (supposedly stacked team) hell. Reggie played fantastic in all of these series.

Pacers were good all-around, so were Jazz, Knicks and Magic. Miller had a better postseason run than all of these players with the exception of Hakeem (definitely) and arguably Pippen/Ewing.

About recognition - to this point Shaq made zero all-nba teams and made a single all-star team - does it matter? Shaq's team got destroyed by the Pacers in the first round and Reggie outplayed him clearly.

Reggie's TEAM outplayed Shaq, Shaq was the mote impactful player this year. The Knicks were stacked, but we're not comparing Reggie to Ewing here, who is nowhere on my ballot.

Both things are true - Pacers outplayed Magic and Reggie outplayed Shaq. If you disagree, please elaborate.

I have a feeling WOWY is suddenly important again
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#18 » by One_and_Done » Tue Dec 3, 2024 11:29 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:They had +3.3 SRS and 51 projected wins, so 47 wins underrate their performance. Then they went on beating two solid teams in the playoffs without HC advantage and gave the Knicks (supposedly stacked team) hell. Reggie played fantastic in all of these series.

Pacers were good all-around, so were Jazz, Knicks and Magic. Miller had a better postseason run than all of these players with the exception of Hakeem (definitely) and arguably Pippen/Ewing.

About recognition - to this point Shaq made zero all-nba teams and made a single all-star team - does it matter? Shaq's team got destroyed by the Pacers in the first round and Reggie outplayed him clearly.

Reggie's TEAM outplayed Shaq, Shaq was the mote impactful player this year. The Knicks were stacked, but we're not comparing Reggie to Ewing here, who is nowhere on my ballot.

Both things are true - Pacers outplayed Magic and Reggie outplayed Shaq. If you disagree, please elaborate.

Aside from the fact that one guy is prime Shaq, and prime Shaq is in a totally different tier to Reggie Miller as a player?

Shaq only got 20-13 for the series, which by Shaq’s standards is kinda pedestrian, but you can’t just go off volume numbers. Other teams feel Shaq in a way they don’t Reggie Miller; on both ends frankly. The difference was their support casts. Shaq had a rookie Penny and not much else. Reggie had 3 all-star bigs, all of whom were tasked with wearing down Shaq, an elite starting SF, and some good bench players.

These posts always act like Kobe or Reggie Miller or [wing X] was being guarded by the big, when in reality it’s the complete opposite. It’s not like Reggie was torching Shaq on D, he couldn’t do anything inside against Shaq in fact, but the Magic’s perimeter D was mostly garbage, so Reggie could just bomb 3s unopposed. I find it hard to understand why that is Shaq’s fault.

Shaq joined a 21 win team. He single handedly turned that team into a 41 win team as a rookie. In year 2 we saw them win 50. That was the sort of impact Shaq had in his prime. We see that elsewhere too, for example when Shaq was playing without Kobe from 00-04 and the Lakers were playing at a better than 60 win pace (while Kobe led the Lakers to a 135-137 record from 00-07 in games without Shaq). In contrast, there is really nothing indicating that sort of floor raise from Reggie which is something I’ve discussed in many threads. The Pacers were a 500 team on average over Reggie’s first 7 years. It was only once his team was extremely deep that they became a contender. Shaq is a guy who makes a weak team a contender. That’s something else being forgotten. Reggie hit a bunch of shots this series, but guess what? The RS counts too. If you switched Shaq with Reggie the Magic wouldn’t have been in the playoffs to begin with.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#19 » by OhayoKD » Tue Dec 3, 2024 12:02 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Reggie's TEAM outplayed Shaq, Shaq was the mote impactful player this year. The Knicks were stacked, but we're not comparing Reggie to Ewing here, who is nowhere on my ballot.

Both things are true - Pacers outplayed Magic and Reggie outplayed Shaq. If you disagree, please elaborate.

I have a feeling WOWY is suddenly important again

My feeling was correct
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1993-94 UPDATE 

Post#20 » by eminence » Tue Dec 3, 2024 1:10 pm

I would also have Shaq lower than the votes to date (3/3/4).

A strong regular season (especially for a young player), but ultimately doesn't stand out in the way Robinson does and ends in similar disappointment. 4/5 votes seem reasonable, but I'm not seeing his angle vs Hakeem/Malone/Robinson (those don't have to be a top 3, but Shaq stacks up poorly against each). Then there's Ewing/Pippen/Miller/Mutombo (dare I say Mookie?), Stockton if you're higher on him relative to Malone (possible, though I think Malone has the notably stronger case). A lot of guys with at least some semblance of a case against Shaq.
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