0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
Moderators: Chris Porter's Hair, floppymoose, Sleepy51
0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,573
- And1: 567
- Joined: Jun 26, 2008
0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
Is what we're seeing now the reality of this team or is it just an unfortunate series of events that will pass?
Personally, I'm leaning towards the latter but I'm more optimistic in my sports fandom than I am in real life (why watch if I'm just going to expect the worst). A few reasons in both directions:
The positive:
The current 0-5 stretch came with Steph missing 1 game, Dray missing 1 game, JK missing 2 games, and the team getting the Melton news shortly before this stretch started. In 3 of the 4 games he did play, Steph shot 30% or under from deep. Unless he's turning into a pumpkin, that will probably turn around.
Buddy Hield, in those 5 games, was 17/44 from the field (38%). Moody, Podz, Waters, all struggled and I can't find a single player that played well during these last 5. Despite all of that, each of those losses came down to the last few minutes. Almost beating OKC w/o Steph or Den w/o Dray are not the worst results. There are reasons to think Steph, JK, MM, Podz, and Buddy will shoot better going forward. Steve seems to have shortened the rotation a bit. Loon might be starting over TJD. JK may be playing more 4 than 3. The schedule should, eventually, even out. Even after this 0-5 stretch, we're on a 49 win pace (.600) and should be out of the play-in.
Last thing: in 11 days, we can trade melton's expiring and, unless things turn around before then, unlikely considering the schedule, I would expect a smaller trade sooner rather than later (schroder, vuc, etc.).
The negative:
Steph is clearly wearing down and needs more rest than the talent on the team would allow. The team's issues scoring in the 4th aren't new and going back 2 seasons, we can see this offense stall out late in games. The two losses against Den and OKC aren't the worst, considering Dray and Steph, respectively, missed those two games. Losing to SAS and BKN with both Dray and Steph is what really hurts and it was obvious at the time, considering what the schedule portended.
JK, Podz, and Moody may never be the players this team needs or certainly not this season. JK's recent yips at the FT line may tank the season (he's already shying away from contact near the rim and is driving less). Podz's entire game seems to be rocked by his lack of a reliable 3pt shot or right hand finishing. He's a negative on offense and his rebounding has dropped. He's in his own head and that used to be the best part of his game. MM has had the same issues he's had the prior 3 seasons - mostly just getting off the bench. All 3 seem to be having massive confidence issues and while those seem to be personal problems, at some point, it may be a team/coaching dynamic (we've heard plenty of stores of vets getting here and losing confidence, especially offensively).
Worst of all, the schedule doesn't get any easier and Dray's injury didn't sound like just rest (if Slater and TK are to be believed). We have Hou/Min/Min/Hou/Mem/Min as the next 6 and we could easily be 13-13 or even 12-14 once that 6 game stretch is over. Worst of all, in the west, that is certainly on the outside of the play-in and running steph into the ground to get the 11th seed seems like a giant waste.
Personally, I'm leaning towards the latter but I'm more optimistic in my sports fandom than I am in real life (why watch if I'm just going to expect the worst). A few reasons in both directions:
The positive:
The current 0-5 stretch came with Steph missing 1 game, Dray missing 1 game, JK missing 2 games, and the team getting the Melton news shortly before this stretch started. In 3 of the 4 games he did play, Steph shot 30% or under from deep. Unless he's turning into a pumpkin, that will probably turn around.
Buddy Hield, in those 5 games, was 17/44 from the field (38%). Moody, Podz, Waters, all struggled and I can't find a single player that played well during these last 5. Despite all of that, each of those losses came down to the last few minutes. Almost beating OKC w/o Steph or Den w/o Dray are not the worst results. There are reasons to think Steph, JK, MM, Podz, and Buddy will shoot better going forward. Steve seems to have shortened the rotation a bit. Loon might be starting over TJD. JK may be playing more 4 than 3. The schedule should, eventually, even out. Even after this 0-5 stretch, we're on a 49 win pace (.600) and should be out of the play-in.
Last thing: in 11 days, we can trade melton's expiring and, unless things turn around before then, unlikely considering the schedule, I would expect a smaller trade sooner rather than later (schroder, vuc, etc.).
The negative:
Steph is clearly wearing down and needs more rest than the talent on the team would allow. The team's issues scoring in the 4th aren't new and going back 2 seasons, we can see this offense stall out late in games. The two losses against Den and OKC aren't the worst, considering Dray and Steph, respectively, missed those two games. Losing to SAS and BKN with both Dray and Steph is what really hurts and it was obvious at the time, considering what the schedule portended.
JK, Podz, and Moody may never be the players this team needs or certainly not this season. JK's recent yips at the FT line may tank the season (he's already shying away from contact near the rim and is driving less). Podz's entire game seems to be rocked by his lack of a reliable 3pt shot or right hand finishing. He's a negative on offense and his rebounding has dropped. He's in his own head and that used to be the best part of his game. MM has had the same issues he's had the prior 3 seasons - mostly just getting off the bench. All 3 seem to be having massive confidence issues and while those seem to be personal problems, at some point, it may be a team/coaching dynamic (we've heard plenty of stores of vets getting here and losing confidence, especially offensively).
Worst of all, the schedule doesn't get any easier and Dray's injury didn't sound like just rest (if Slater and TK are to be believed). We have Hou/Min/Min/Hou/Mem/Min as the next 6 and we could easily be 13-13 or even 12-14 once that 6 game stretch is over. Worst of all, in the west, that is certainly on the outside of the play-in and running steph into the ground to get the 11th seed seems like a giant waste.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
- Onus
- RealGM
- Posts: 23,375
- And1: 7,017
- Joined: May 12, 2008
- Location: NOA
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
the roster is showing serious limitations and Steve is really tinkering around the edges. He needs to find a way to stabilize when Steph sits. By changing Steph's minutes he just redistributed the problem to other time slots when Steph isn't in the game. The closing lineup needs another player that can hit a 3. Kerr is too scared to play Buddy, because Buddy has these really inopportune fouls but he's the only one that can open up the offense closing the game. So until Buddy is entrenched as a closer or we make a trade this is going to be our reality.
Most 4th Quarter Points in Final since 1991
1995 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5 (61.1% TS)
2015 Stephen Curry 10.8 (75.1% TS)
1997 Michael Jordan 10.7 (55.1% TS)
1998 Michael Jordan 10.6 (50.6% TS)
2011 Dirk Nowitzki 10.3 (68.0% TS)
1995 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5 (61.1% TS)
2015 Stephen Curry 10.8 (75.1% TS)
1997 Michael Jordan 10.7 (55.1% TS)
1998 Michael Jordan 10.6 (50.6% TS)
2011 Dirk Nowitzki 10.3 (68.0% TS)
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
- EvanZ
- RealGM
- Posts: 14,774
- And1: 4,110
- Joined: Apr 06, 2011
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
The normal is the average of the 2 parts. It was probably always going to be a 0.500 team as we all said pre-season. Well, most of us.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- General Manager
- Posts: 9,531
- And1: 1,388
- Joined: Mar 11, 2007
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
We probably should have had a loss or two more during our really great start to the season... and we probably should have won one or two of these games in this rough stretch... so we are probably right where we belong.
My prediction was a team that can fight for a top 6 spot just like 10 other teams in the west, with injuries being the difference between fighting for home court vs fighting for a play-in spot. The other prediction though was that we would have the assets to try and make a movie to up the odds.
So all things considered I think due to Melton injury and Steph/Dray already looking a bit banged up or declining, we are probably in line for a war in the 6-10 range unless we find a deal or two that improve the team.
My prediction was a team that can fight for a top 6 spot just like 10 other teams in the west, with injuries being the difference between fighting for home court vs fighting for a play-in spot. The other prediction though was that we would have the assets to try and make a movie to up the odds.
So all things considered I think due to Melton injury and Steph/Dray already looking a bit banged up or declining, we are probably in line for a war in the 6-10 range unless we find a deal or two that improve the team.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
- Coxy
- RealGM
- Posts: 48,567
- And1: 15,020
- Joined: Jun 17, 2008
-
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
- whatisacenter
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,162
- And1: 15,303
- Joined: Aug 05, 2013
-
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
I thought this roster would be fighting for a play-in spot so they have been better than I thought they would be to this point.
They will probably be a .500 team moving forward without a trade.
They will probably be a .500 team moving forward without a trade.
Madvillain been as high as Kathmandu
And tilted to the side like that fat man's shoe
And tilted to the side like that fat man's shoe
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
- Onus
- RealGM
- Posts: 23,375
- And1: 7,017
- Joined: May 12, 2008
- Location: NOA
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
Steph and dray both out tomorrow so 0-6
Most 4th Quarter Points in Final since 1991
1995 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5 (61.1% TS)
2015 Stephen Curry 10.8 (75.1% TS)
1997 Michael Jordan 10.7 (55.1% TS)
1998 Michael Jordan 10.6 (50.6% TS)
2011 Dirk Nowitzki 10.3 (68.0% TS)
1995 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 11.5 (61.1% TS)
2015 Stephen Curry 10.8 (75.1% TS)
1997 Michael Jordan 10.7 (55.1% TS)
1998 Michael Jordan 10.6 (50.6% TS)
2011 Dirk Nowitzki 10.3 (68.0% TS)
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 29,511
- And1: 7,465
- Joined: Nov 24, 2003
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
Team is tired, playing hurt, and the schedule had gotten harder.
Steph, dray, and wiggs have been playing hurt for the past 1 or 2 weeks.
And this ball pressure defense is wearing guys out. You can see it in their shooting.
Steph, dray, and wiggs have been playing hurt for the past 1 or 2 weeks.
And this ball pressure defense is wearing guys out. You can see it in their shooting.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,573
- And1: 567
- Joined: Jun 26, 2008
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
Crazy-Canuck wrote:Team is tired, playing hurt, and the schedule had gotten harder.
Steph, dray, and wiggs have been playing hurt for the past 1 or 2 weeks.
And this ball pressure defense is wearing guys out. You can see it in their shooting.
I didn't know Wigs was hurt. Do you remember his injury or when it happened? His last game with only 7 shots despite going 5/5 FT and 2/4 3pt was super disappointing and very unlike him. Considering his effort on defense, if he's nursing an injury, I could see him 'resting' on offense and can understand it.
All this makes me think, why didn't kerr just give all 3 of these guys like 10 days off when we were 12-3.. I guess the dray thing is a bit more recent but they were clearly tired by the time it was game 16/17 and the wearables/tracking would probably have shown them something. Instead, we're might go 0-10 and they still won't get the rest they need. Seemed like a great time to play moody/jk/poodz 30+ mins for 5-10 games and try to add player development on top of vet rest and a 12-3 start.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 14,892
- And1: 4,069
- Joined: Dec 29, 2011
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
Some of both, they're not as good as 12-3 and not as bad as 0-5 (soon to be 0-6). Despite the volatility, this is basically going as expected. My preseason prediction was 47-35 (.573 WP) and if they lose tonight they'll be 12-9 (.571 WP). They'll go on a small win streak once guys get healthier and they face lesser teams, but it won't change the end result.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- General Manager
- Posts: 8,649
- And1: 1,375
- Joined: Aug 03, 2001
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
I miss Ty Jerome. Never thought I would say that.
This movie is like the Rocky Horror Picture Show where everyone knows all the lines.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
- floppymoose
- Senior Mod - Warriors
- Posts: 59,303
- And1: 17,420
- Joined: Jun 22, 2003
- Location: Trust your election workers
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
watch1958 wrote:I miss Ty Jerome. Never thought I would say that.
In the CLE game I was really questioning whether there was a 2nd Ty Jerome in the league. He was unrecognizable. His ability to finish in the lane off of penetration was so much better that it opened everything up for him.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 29,511
- And1: 7,465
- Joined: Nov 24, 2003
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
vvoland wrote:Crazy-Canuck wrote:Team is tired, playing hurt, and the schedule had gotten harder.
Steph, dray, and wiggs have been playing hurt for the past 1 or 2 weeks.
And this ball pressure defense is wearing guys out. You can see it in their shooting.
I didn't know Wigs was hurt. Do you remember his injury or when it happened? His last game with only 7 shots despite going 5/5 FT and 2/4 3pt was super disappointing and very unlike him. Considering his effort on defense, if he's nursing an injury, I could see him 'resting' on offense and can understand it.
All this makes me think, why didn't kerr just give all 3 of these guys like 10 days off when we were 12-3.. I guess the dray thing is a bit more recent but they were clearly tired by the time it was game 16/17 and the wearables/tracking would probably have shown them something. Instead, we're might go 0-10 and they still won't get the rest they need. Seemed like a great time to play moody/jk/poodz 30+ mins for 5-10 games and try to add player development on top of vet rest and a 12-3 start.
He's been dealing with lower back pain and ankle impingement. Don't know when it exactly happened, but he's been questionable, yet played the last few games.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,573
- And1: 567
- Joined: Jun 26, 2008
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
HiRez wrote:Some of both, they're not as good as 12-3 and not as bad as 0-5 (soon to be 0-6). Despite the volatility, this is basically going as expected. My preseason prediction was 47-35 (.573 WP) and if they lose tonight they'll be 12-9 (.571 WP). They'll go on a small win streak once guys get healthier and they face lesser teams, but it won't change the end result.
Thank you for the reverse jinx.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,573
- And1: 567
- Joined: Jun 26, 2008
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
Crazy-Canuck wrote:vvoland wrote:Crazy-Canuck wrote:Team is tired, playing hurt, and the schedule had gotten harder.
Steph, dray, and wiggs have been playing hurt for the past 1 or 2 weeks.
And this ball pressure defense is wearing guys out. You can see it in their shooting.
I didn't know Wigs was hurt. Do you remember his injury or when it happened? His last game with only 7 shots despite going 5/5 FT and 2/4 3pt was super disappointing and very unlike him. Considering his effort on defense, if he's nursing an injury, I could see him 'resting' on offense and can understand it.
All this makes me think, why didn't kerr just give all 3 of these guys like 10 days off when we were 12-3.. I guess the dray thing is a bit more recent but they were clearly tired by the time it was game 16/17 and the wearables/tracking would probably have shown them something. Instead, we're might go 0-10 and they still won't get the rest they need. Seemed like a great time to play moody/jk/poodz 30+ mins for 5-10 games and try to add player development on top of vet rest and a 12-3 start.
He's been dealing with lower back pain and ankle impingement. Don't know when it exactly happened, but he's been questionable, yet played the last few games.
Yes, the ankle looked to be getting treatment all game. Great effort from him tonight and the bad ankle/back might explain all the missed bunnies thus recent stretch
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 29,511
- And1: 7,465
- Joined: Nov 24, 2003
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
vvoland wrote:Crazy-Canuck wrote:vvoland wrote:
I didn't know Wigs was hurt. Do you remember his injury or when it happened? His last game with only 7 shots despite going 5/5 FT and 2/4 3pt was super disappointing and very unlike him. Considering his effort on defense, if he's nursing an injury, I could see him 'resting' on offense and can understand it.
All this makes me think, why didn't kerr just give all 3 of these guys like 10 days off when we were 12-3.. I guess the dray thing is a bit more recent but they were clearly tired by the time it was game 16/17 and the wearables/tracking would probably have shown them something. Instead, we're might go 0-10 and they still won't get the rest they need. Seemed like a great time to play moody/jk/poodz 30+ mins for 5-10 games and try to add player development on top of vet rest and a 12-3 start.
He's been dealing with lower back pain and ankle impingement. Don't know when it exactly happened, but he's been questionable, yet played the last few games.
Yes, the ankle looked to be getting treatment all game. Great effort from him tonight and the bad ankle/back might explain all the missed bunnies thus recent stretch
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- RealGM
- Posts: 14,892
- And1: 4,069
- Joined: Dec 29, 2011
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
vvoland wrote:HiRez wrote:Some of both, they're not as good as 12-3 and not as bad as 0-5 (soon to be 0-6). Despite the volatility, this is basically going as expected. My preseason prediction was 47-35 (.573 WP) and if they lose tonight they'll be 12-9 (.571 WP). They'll go on a small win streak once guys get healthier and they face lesser teams, but it won't change the end result.
Thank you for the reverse jinx.
Happy to help.

Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- General Manager
- Posts: 9,055
- And1: 2,813
- Joined: Oct 03, 2022
-
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
Crazy-Canuck wrote:vvoland wrote:Crazy-Canuck wrote:
He's been dealing with lower back pain and ankle impingement. Don't know when it exactly happened, but he's been questionable, yet played the last few games.
Yes, the ankle looked to be getting treatment all game. Great effort from him tonight and the bad ankle/back might explain all the missed bunnies thus recent stretch
I think the Warriors have 2 of the more underrated players in the league in Wiggins and Looney. Mainly because they likely wouldnt be as good outside this team's system, but they are in this team's system, so..
I'd challenge folks to watch only Looney on every offensive possession he's on the court. IMO there's only one player on the team who creates space for his teammates better than he does.. just like his rebounding, his screen angles are pinpoint
And then on the other hand, there's Wiggins, who's back in the defensive positions he always should have been for the past 2 years. But his injury, personal life and Klay's general crappiness made Kerr do too much. His defense is arguably better this season than it was in 21-22, and his offense definitely has been. If he wasn't a former #1 pick who flamed out as a #1 option, I'm convinced he'd be a league darling and a player fanbases fantasize of trading for
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
-
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,573
- And1: 567
- Joined: Jun 26, 2008
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
CDM_Stats wrote:Crazy-Canuck wrote:vvoland wrote:
Yes, the ankle looked to be getting treatment all game. Great effort from him tonight and the bad ankle/back might explain all the missed bunnies thus recent stretch
I think the Warriors have 2 of the more underrated players in the league in Wiggins and Looney. Mainly because they likely wouldnt be as good outside this team's system, but they are in this team's system, so..
I'd challenge folks to watch only Looney on every offensive possession he's on the court. IMO there's only one player on the team who creates space for his teammates better than he does.. just like his rebounding, his screen angles are pinpoint
And then on the other hand, there's Wiggins, who's back in the defensive positions he always should have been for the past 2 years. But his injury, personal life and Klay's general crappiness made Kerr do too much. His defense is arguably better this season than it was in 21-22, and his offense definitely has been. If he wasn't a former #1 pick who flamed out as a #1 option, I'm convinced he'd be a league darling and a player fanbases fantasize of trading for
Looney - for sure. He's underrated, even by his own team, coach, agent, and league. The super low contract he gets every time he's a FA. The conversation this off-season about cutting/trading him (I also engaged in it). To be fair, he does the least sexiest/noticeable things on the basketball court - rim protection w/o blocks; screens; rebounding. At this point, if he stays thin and healthy, I hope they bring him back on a reasonable deal.
Wigs - shows so much promise that calling him underrated, as a player might be a bit much. As a player/contract/asset? Yes, people talk about him like he was an albatross but even at his nadir, he was probably a slightly negative contract. If he keeps this level of play up for another 60 games, I wonder what his rep will be. He's just too tantalizing as an athlete for people to watch him float, especially on offense, and think as highly of him as his defense should suggest.
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
- cpower
- RealGM
- Posts: 20,832
- And1: 8,668
- Joined: Mar 03, 2011
-
Re: 0 - 5 : The new normal or just a bad stretch?
we need a 2nd option, fun fact when Hield scores 15 or more, we are 8-1, when he scores less than 15, we are 4-7
Return to Golden State Warriors