Boston Celtics Dilemma this July - Al Horford Renewal - $60M Decision

[Hitman88]

If Al Horford will be renewed at $10M, it means that the Celtics will have to pay $50M more due to being a repeated offender.
So in effect, renewing Al Horford will cost them $60M

Is this worth it?
If not, their frontcourt will took a hit since they have to solely rely to Porzingis.

Do note that $60M is only for 2025-26 season. If they renew Al Horford for two years, that would mean $120M decision.

[giberish]

One way or another Boston's going to have to do some payroll triage starting next summer.

[Lalouie]

One way or another Boston's going to have to do some payroll triage starting next summer.

tough one. you cannot replace smarts. it's invaluable
what's with the 60m if he's making 9mil

he's made 100mil in his career. i think both sides will meet

[baldur]

he will be 39 next year. maybe he will retire? yaeh I wouldn't pay either.

[Hitman88]

One way or another Boston's going to have to do some payroll triage starting next summer.

tough one. you cannot replace smarts. it's invaluable
what's with the 60m if he's making 9mil

he's made 100mil in his career. i think both sides will meet

They are repeated Tax Offender. So they have to pay 5x whatever is exceeded in the cap.
So if they pay Horford 10M, they will incur 50M luxury tax

[Chuck Everett]

Horford will be playing for the vet minimum at best (if he's still playing). But whether he plays or not, I expect he will remain with the Celtics organization. He loves them and they love him.

[cl2117]

I'd expect Horford to take a pretty steep hometown discount to stick around. Is he really going to go to a new franchise at age 39, leaving the best situation he's been in his career so far? I don't think so. And he'll know the reality of how much it'll actually cost the C's to extend him.

This is why the veteran minimum exists, they can pay him $3.3m and only take a cap hit of like $2.1m (so $10.5m total after taxes/penalties).

Ultimately Horford isn't going to be the problem, it'll be choosing between Jrue or Porzingis when the penalties get too egregious. They'll have to try to move off one of those guys and bring back in some roleplayers who cost significantly less but might be able to give them enough depth to keep rolling while ducking below the apron.

[Laimbeer]

I'd expect Horford to take a pretty steep hometown discount to stick around. Is he really going to go to a new franchise at age 39, leaving the best situation he's been in his career so far? I don't think so. And he'll know the reality of how much it'll actually cost the C's to extend him.

This is why the veteran minimum exists, they can pay him $3.3m and only take a cap hit of like $2.1m (so $10.5m total after taxes/penalties).

Ultimately Horford isn't going to be the problem, it'll be choosing between Jrue or Porzingis when the penalties get too egregious. They'll have to try to move off one of those guys and bring back in some roleplayers who cost significantly less but might be able to give them enough depth to keep rolling while ducking below the apron.

This is Jrue, no? You really don't have great options at center without Zinger. Just hope he stays relatively healthy. Sooner the better in terms of moving him, he ain't getting any younger.

[DaddyCool19]

I wonder if Jrue will have that much value with that long contract and turning 35 next year. The last year could be rough.

[bkkrh]

I'd expect Horford to take a pretty steep hometown discount to stick around. Is he really going to go to a new franchise at age 39, leaving the best situation he's been in his career so far? I don't think so. And he'll know the reality of how much it'll actually cost the C's to extend him.

This is why the veteran minimum exists, they can pay him $3.3m and only take a cap hit of like $2.1m (so $10.5m total after taxes/penalties).

Ultimately Horford isn't going to be the problem, it'll be choosing between Jrue or Porzingis when the penalties get too egregious. They'll have to try to move off one of those guys and bring back in some roleplayers who cost significantly less but might be able to give them enough depth to keep rolling while ducking below the apron.

Yeah, I see it the same way. It's similar to the Chris Paul 30 Million thread a few days ago. With this year's salary, Horford has close to 290 Million in salary earnings alone and he already had a bad experience once when he left Boston for Philly. So I don't think that making maybe 5 Million more on another team will be a big factor.

[cl2117]

I'd expect Horford to take a pretty steep hometown discount to stick around. Is he really going to go to a new franchise at age 39, leaving the best situation he's been in his career so far? I don't think so. And he'll know the reality of how much it'll actually cost the C's to extend him.

This is why the veteran minimum exists, they can pay him $3.3m and only take a cap hit of like $2.1m (so $10.5m total after taxes/penalties).

Ultimately Horford isn't going to be the problem, it'll be choosing between Jrue or Porzingis when the penalties get too egregious. They'll have to try to move off one of those guys and bring back in some roleplayers who cost significantly less but might be able to give them enough depth to keep rolling while ducking below the apron.

This is Jrue, no? You really don't have great options at center without Zinger. Just hope he stays relatively healthy. Sooner the better in terms of moving him, he ain't getting any younger.

Jrue is the obvious answer but I could see KP being the cap casualty given injury risk.

Big part of it could just be the return you get for them as well. Jrue's contract gets ugly, KP's is a bit of a question mark with 2 years left and I've got no clue what his next deal looks like under the new CBA. They're going to need to get back some serviceable depth pieces while cutting a lot of salary. Jrue might cost assets to get rid of, whereas KP you might be able to just downgrade from to a lesser but cheaper big man. Won't really know until after this season plays out and see what happens. Could even be that you move both.

This season you 100% just ride it out and hope you stay healthy. If you win it all or you come incredibly close, next year it's hard not to just run it back again (even at the astronomical price tag that team costs). If you don't then I think you look to make the moves that reset the repeater penalties and let you put depth around Tatum/Brown beyond just White/Pritchard/Hauser.

[bluejerseyjinx]

I'd expect Horford to take a pretty steep hometown discount to stick around. Is he really going to go to a new franchise at age 39, leaving the best situation he's been in his career so far? I don't think so. And he'll know the reality of how much it'll actually cost the C's to extend him.

This is why the veteran minimum exists, they can pay him $3.3m and only take a cap hit of like $2.1m (so $10.5m total after taxes/penalties).

Ultimately Horford isn't going to be the problem, it'll be choosing between Jrue or Porzingis when the penalties get too egregious. They'll have to try to move off one of those guys and bring back in some roleplayers who cost significantly less but might be able to give them enough depth to keep rolling while ducking below the apron.

With the growth we are currently seeing in Pritchard so far this season, I can see it being Jrue.

[celtxman]

Someday this topic should be a sticky. The current "CBA & Business" topic just won't be enough to handle this. It will affect ALL championship contenders and has already affected Minnesota, Denver and Boston.
As to the Horford dilemma, if he doesn't retire, I think he is on the Celtics next year, and Sam Hauser is not. I've already said this on the Celtics board. But a lot depends on how this year finishes. I think Hauser is gone either way as his $10 million per contract kicks in. Part of his replacement would be Drew Peterson at minimum salary. If the Celtics win the championship, they will keep the rest of the core. If they don't win it all, it will depend on the circumstances of how they lost (lose in first round, lose in Game 7 of Finals, bad injury etc.) But now they would have to consider losing Holiday and/or Porzingis. There is a chance of trading Jaylen Brown because they could get a rising (cheaper) star back.
It's not about Horford. It's about every contract you have.

[Hitman88]

Someday this topic should be a sticky. The current "CBA & Business" topic just won't be enough to handle this. It will affect ALL championship contenders and has already affected Minnesota, Denver and Boston.
As to the Horford dilemma, if he doesn't retire, I think he is on the Celtics next year, and Sam Hauser is not. I've already said this on the Celtics board. But a lot depends on how this year finishes. I think Hauser is gone either way as his $10 million per contract kicks in. Part of his replacement would be Drew Peterson at minimum salary. If the Celtics win the championship, they will keep the rest of the core. If they don't win it all, it will depend on the circumstances of how they lost (lose in first round, lose in Game 7 of Finals, bad injury etc.) But now they would have to consider losing Holiday and/or Porzingis. There is a chance of trading Jaylen Brown because they could get a rising (cheaper) star back.
It's not about Horford. It's about every contract you have.

Assuming they performed well, Are the Celtics willing to pay additional 25M in Luxury Tax to resign Al into agreeable $5M for one final push(2025-26 season) before they trade Jrue and KP.

[Hellcrooner]

When do they have to negotiate a new CBA?

Because i think players are not going to like that the current one goes heavily against veterans and next time around they will push the issue ( hand hopefuly strike).

[phanman]

Horford's a smart guy and has made 290m including this season in career earnings. I think he can see the financial situation with the team and do the team a favor by inking a vet min to stay on a championship contending team. Especially if they pull off a repeat and the rest of the core is still signed for 25-26.

The Zinger decision in 26 is a much more intriguing topic. 207m on the books without accounting for whatever Al takes and if Kornet returns. Unlike Al, KP will still be in his prime at 31 and I would assume look to ink one final big deal.

There's really no point in discussing Jrue because he has a PO for 37.2m in 27-28, which he is all but certain to take. Jrue's good, but at his salary, teams won't exactly be lining up to trade for a 35yo guard who has shown some signs of regression already this season.

[Hitman88]

So in essence, his is the final year of their core.
Next season, the only serviceable big man they have is KP plus whoever Big they can get from Sam Hausser trade.

[Blame Rasho]

Granted I am not a multimillionaire, and don’t have FU level of money, but is your life and umm I guess mental health better by getting more money when you are set?

I am sure there are other ways to have him on the payroll by trading and getting rid of non rotation players.

The inflation of salaries still baffles me though and kinda woah when I saw his career earnings.

[Chuck Everett]

When do they have to negotiate a new CBA?

Because i think players are not going to like that the current one goes heavily against veterans and next time around they will push the issue ( hand hopefuly strike).

It doesn't go against veterans at all. The problem is the salaries haven't adjusted to the talent. You have "name" guys still being paid a lot of money due to past production when some of that money should probably be re-allocated. Maybe Jrue Holiday should be making 18-22 million and same for KP, since they are the 4-5th best players on the team (and White is better than KP because he plays most of the damn games), rather than 30 million dollar salaries. White makes less than them and he's more important.

And the next CBA negotiation is like 8-9 years away.

[Hitman88]

I think the best option is to package Sam Hausser and Horford this February to get a Big Man.
In that sense, you can save luxury tax and have a final piece this season and next season as well.

Then come 2026/27 season, rebuild the team with Tatum and JB as the franchise players.