Celtics 2025-26, Off-Season/Training Camp Thread

[ConstableGeneva]

Decrease in scoring has been going on since maybe around all-star break last season. Little to do with 3-pt attempt increase imo. More to do with officiating and what the league has been allowing. Read here: https://www.espn.ph/nba/story/_/id/39741326/nba-memo-says-officiating-focus-foul-hunting-contributing-factor-scoring-decline

Since Cs aren't really the foul-hunting type, our offense continued to flourish post-ASB last season -- from 120.8 to 125.2 offensive rating (with just a slight decrease in 3-pt attempt rate).

It seems like, relative to last season, our offensive rating is down a little bit, but that the offensive rating of the entire NBA is down a little bit more. But isn’t the whole point of shooting more threes to juice the offense, why has league wide increase in 3PTA resulted in league wide decrease in offense?

Did a quick dive on nba.com, looking at per48 comparisons YoY.

2024-25 Celts scoring 118.5 points per 48 while attempting 50.4 3PTA
2023-24 Celts scored 119.7 points per 48 while attempting 42.1 3PTA

So three pointers are up ~8 attempts and scoring is down ~1 point.

(I used per 48 stats rather than per game because number of overtime sessions fluctuates season to season.)

Better metric... (from BBRef) since amount of possessions fluctuates game to game. Offensive Rating is points scored per 100 possessions. Also used amount of threes taken relative to total amount of field goal attempts.

The amount of 3s Cs are taking is indeed up.
2023-24 3-pt attempt rate (3FGA/FGA): .471
2024-25 3-pt attempt rate (3FGA/FGA): .564

But we're scoring better this year relative to league average.
2023-24 relative offensive rating: +7.9
2024-25 relative offensive rating: +8.2

That's with the Cs shooting it worse from three compared to last season.
2023-24 3FG%: 38.8%
2024-25 3FG%: 37.3%

[bigboi]

Tatum is clearly mvp. I’m tired of hearing that Jokic bs. Giannis is playing just as good as Jokic this year. Similar numbers across the board sans assists with way better defense. Tatum is playing like mvp clearly. My prediction was Tatum mvp and Brown first or second team all nba. That still might happen based on what I’m seeing

[ConstableGeneva]

Anyway, the 3-pointer is somewhat being used as a cheat code by some players now to preserve their bodies not just for the playoffs but for a long career. It might suck from an entertainment value standpoint (for a sector of fans) but it's just how it is. SGA and Ant are taking more threes this season. Hear Ja talk about how he wants to dunk less. JT drives less in regular season compared to postseason. And so on.

[ConstableGeneva]

via Todd Whitehead:

Adjusted team strength tiers.



Synergy Net Rating adjusts for opponent strength, venue (home or away) and rest/travel advantages while de-emphasizing garbage time and weighting more recent results more heavily.

Cs still a tier on their own.

[cloverleaf]

Tatum is clearly mvp. I’m tired of hearing that Jokic bs. Giannis is playing just as good as Jokic this year. Similar numbers across the board sans assists with way better defense. Tatum is playing like mvp clearly. My prediction was Tatum mvp and Brown first or second team all nba. That still might happen based on what I’m seeing

Giannis isn't playing as well as Jokic this year: https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=jokicni01&year_min=2025&player_id1=antetgi01&seasons_type=forall&request=1

[ConstableGeneva]

Other than Hauser (slight decrease), Brown (slight increase), Q (negligible), and K (doesn't take 3s), everyone on our main rotation have had significant increase (varying degrees) in their 3-pt attempt rate so far. I don't see it changing anytime soon unless opponents change the way they defend us.

Not really concerned, 'cos we know our guys are versatile enough to score any number of ways. If defenders close out, everyone on our 8-man rotation can put the ball on the floor. Some of them are very good to great 3-level scorers. Even Hauser has shown he can make plays with more than two dribbles! But yeah, let it fly when you're open. The space we create with our shooters is what allows those passing/driving lanes to be open in the first place.

[ConstableGeneva]

After 24 Games:

2022-23: 1st in offense, 14th in defense, +8.6 net rating (ended 2nd in offense, 2nd in defense, +6.7 net)
2023-24: 6th in offense, 4th in defense, +8.7 net rating (ended 1st in offense, 2nd in defense, +11.7 net)
2024-25: 3rd in offense, 10th in defense, +9.3 net rating

Cs having 19-5 after 24 games in each of Joe's coaching seasons is kinda funny.

Long season ahead. Defense can still get better.

[ConstableGeneva]

Our next nine games to end the year -- DET, @WAS, CHI, @CHI, @ORL, PHI, IND, IND, TOR.
Our first four games to open the new year -- @MIN, @HOU, @OKC, @DEN.

10-3 would be a very good result. And would put us on pace for 64 wins.

[Fierce1]

I'll take 64 wins all day every day.

[Fierce1]

I remember the 2016 Warriors that won 73 games.

That season GSW just refused to lose a game.

It was so annoying, if you're not a GSW fan.

In the end GSW failed to win back to back chips.

Clearly they ran out of gas, so to speak, in the finals.

The Celtics pacing themselves and not going hard all the time is a good thing.

[ConstableGeneva]

via Todd Whitehead:

Jump-shooting leaders by the number of dribbles before the shot, on half-court plays this season.

I see you PP and DWhite! Neither Jay on the efficient dribbler-pullups list. Lillard, Edwards, and the boys from Cleveland killing.

[ConstableGeneva]

After 24 Games:

2022-23: 1st in offense, 14th in defense, +8.6 net rating (ended 2nd in offense, 2nd in defense, +6.7 net)
2023-24: 6th in offense, 4th in defense, +8.7 net rating (ended 1st in offense, 2nd in defense, +11.7 net)
2024-25: 3rd in offense, 10th in defense, +9.3 net rating

Cs having 19-5 after 24 games in each of Joe's coaching seasons is kinda funny.

Long season ahead. Defense can still get better.

via Jake Issenberg:

Some Celtics fans have just rewritten how last season went. Through 24 games:
- Identical record
- Better net rating this season and have had way more injures
- The Top 6 have played 1 game together
- The non-KP 5 have missed 16 total games
- We had lost back to back games to Sixers and wolves
- Lost to the Hornets
- Smoked by the Magic

You could easily make a case the Celtics have been more impressive this season through 24 games.

Maybe some of the consternation comes from no longer being the top seed from day 1 til end of season. Blame the Cavs, who just keep winning lol. Or bar was set higher 'cos of the title? I am mildly concerned about our defense.

Overall still looking good.

[Fierce1]

Just to annoy the doubters, I want to see the Celtics attempt 70 3-pointers in a game this season.

70 attempts from 3pt land will be a record that will be very hard to break.

[ConstableGeneva]

Very early returns...

Starting five with Horford (8-2): +76 in 184 mins.; 50/46/80 splits; 65.4% TS%
Starting five with Porzingis (2-1): -10 in 50 mins.; 42/30/80 splits; 53.2% TS%

[phincsfan]

Any update on Sam?

[Fierce1]

Any update on Sam?

Too early for an update.

For all we know the team is in Cancun.

[phincsfan]

Any update on Sam?

Too early for an update.

For all we know the team is in Cancun.

Life of a professional athlete

[Celts17Pride]

Very early returns...

Starting five with Horford (8-2): +76 in 184 mins.; 50/46/80 splits; 65.4% TS%
Starting five with Porzingis (2-1): -10 in 50 mins.; 42/30/80 splits; 53.2% TS%

Hopefully Big Al can hang in there another 5-6 years

[Fierce1]

Very early returns...

Starting five with Horford (8-2): +76 in 184 mins.; 50/46/80 splits; 65.4% TS%
Starting five with Porzingis (2-1): -10 in 50 mins.; 42/30/80 splits; 53.2% TS%

Hopefully Big Al can hang in there another 5-6 years

One more year for the vets minimum is good enough for me.

Al gunning for a 3-peat would be insane!

[shackles10]

Our next nine games to end the year -- DET, @WAS, CHI, @CHI, @ORL, PHI, IND, IND, TOR.
Our first four games to open the new year -- @MIN, @HOU, @OKC, @DEN.

10-3 would be a very good result. And would put us on pace for 64 wins.

Agreed, it would be a very good result. Although 10-3 could be the result of winning 9 in a row then losing 3 of 4 which even though it's still 10-3 this place will melt. At least Joe will be happy about the chaos.