Retro Player of the Year 1994-95 UPDATE — Hakeem Olajuwon

[OhayoKD]

When Shaq left, Penny led Orlando to a pair of 1st round exits. I would guess Stockton could do better the Nash did even after Amare and Marion left in Phoenix.

The year after Shaq left, Orlando had:
C Rony Seikaly 17/10/1
PF Horace Grant 13/9/2 defensive stud
SF Dennis Scott 13/3/2 -- 3 point shooting
SG Nick Anderson 12/5/3 -- 3 point shooting
PG (Hardaway or Stockton)

All between 28 and 31 years old so in their primes. They won 45 and lost in the 1st round. I'd guess Stockton could make them all better with his playmaking, add stronger defense, and probably add 5roughly 5 wins and win at least 1 playoff series. No proof, just based on watching the players and Stockton playing 82 games instead of Penny's 59. Stockton's consistency and durability get underrated by people who look mainly at scoring and flash.

This is not a great take.

There is only 1 relevant season for Penny “after Shaq left”, which is 1997. That’s because after 97 Penny was never the same again with his constant and debilitating injuries.

In 1997 Penny only played 59 games, but in those 59 games he led them to a 38-21 record (a 52+ win pace). That’s excellent, given the support cast he had (which was fine, but not great; his other starters missed a total of 58 games and weren’t 100% for a dozen others. Penny projects as a superstar type player. He also led the Magic to a 20-8 record without Shaq in the previous year, despite a notably worse support cast and with Ho Grant missing 20 games.

Stockton on the other hand, for reasons I have outlined in considerable depth in other threads, would not be able to do the same thing as Penny (or Nash). He can’t create his own shot like these guys, and is an old school PG who dribbles it up and methodically runs a set that usually finishes with a pass inside to his PF to get to work.

Some creation tracking for stockton is overdue.

[KembaWalker]

Stocktons career win percentage in random games without Malone is better than Pennys career win percentage in totality

[AEnigma]

Stocktons career win percentage in random games without Malone is better than Pennys career win percentage in totality

That is a 6-4 record across 18 years. 47-45 if we count his rookie season.

Penny had a 58.8% career record, and it was 62.9% until his final four years. He was 61-30 (67%) without Shaq from 1994-97 before knee injuries derailed his career.

Definitely a comparable degree of confidence as 6-4 though.

[KembaWalker]

Stocktons career win percentage in random games without Malone is better than Pennys career win percentage in totality

That is a 6-4 record across 18 years. 47-45 if we count his rookie season.

Penny had a 58.8% career record, and it was 62.9% until his final four years. He was 61-30 (67%) without Shaq from 1994-97 before knee injuries derailed his career.

Definitely a comparable degree of confidence as 6-4 though.

The fact that it was done in sporadic games over the entirety of his career pre/mid/post prime makes it more meaningful than cherry-picking a few good prime stretches. Stockton was quite simply a better player than Hardaway and that would have been demonstrated to whatever solo metric you needed if the opportunity had arisen. Unfortunately, Stockton and Malone were an anomaly. To say the Jazz weren’t built around him is comedic though

[OhayoKD]

Stocktons career win percentage in random games without Malone is better than Pennys career win percentage in totality

That is a 6-4 record across 18 years. 47-45 if we count his rookie season.

Penny had a 58.8% career record, and it was 62.9% until his final four years. He was 61-30 (67%) without Shaq from 1994-97 before knee injuries derailed his career.

Definitely a comparable degree of confidence as 6-4 though.

The fact that it was done in sporadic games over the entirety of his career pre/mid/post prime makes it more meaningful than cherry-picking a few good prime stretches.

This is not a career assessment. It's an assessment of what Penny offered in 1995.

Stockton was quite simply a better player than Hardaway and that would have been demonstrated to whatever solo metric you needed if the opportunity had arisen. Unfortunately, Stockton and Malone were an anomaly. To say the Jazz weren’t built around him is comedic though

Games won is a "metric" now

[KembaWalker]

That is a 6-4 record across 18 years. 47-45 if we count his rookie season.

Penny had a 58.8% career record, and it was 62.9% until his final four years. He was 61-30 (67%) without Shaq from 1994-97 before knee injuries derailed his career.

Definitely a comparable degree of confidence as 6-4 though.

The fact that it was done in sporadic games over the entirety of his career pre/mid/post prime makes it more meaningful than cherry-picking a few good prime stretches.

This is not a career assessment. It's an assessment of what Penny offered in 1995.

Stockton was quite simply a better player than Hardaway and that would have been demonstrated to whatever solo metric you needed if the opportunity had arisen. Unfortunately, Stockton and Malone were an anomaly. To say the Jazz weren’t built around him is comedic though

Games won is a "metric" now

I’m not speaking in the context of this thread because I don’t care about the project and am not a voter, the discussion clearly extended beyond that. Although Stockton was better this specific year as well

[penbeast0]

...

Again the guys really going deep into the weeds are going Hakeem and whatever we think of his stats vs Shaq its the Bill Russell thing where at some point I think you just have to accept things as what they are. The Rockets can't do much when he isn't playing and then when he is playing they're beating 60 winners or like almost 60 winners and sweeping a team which is Shaq plus another superstar who can go win a bunch of games himself? We voted Bill Russell 1st over and over even though he didn't score much because he made the team win more than anyone. Hakeem's teams go from really sucking it seems to beating everyone and he's a russell like defender who also goes 33/4/10 but his True shooting isn't high enough so maybe Shaq was better when his way better team gets swept? Yeah, I can't go on that. ...

For whatever reason, Hakeem was a great playoff player. It's not the Bill Russell thing though; Russell's teams dominated everyone in the regular season as well for 11.5 years (not so much in 69 which is a Hakeem type year) plus had a ridiculous record in close out games rather than dominating the PS to a greater degree than they did the RS. They did it by consistently for over a decade putting up defensive numbers that Hakeem's teams only approached in one or two peak seasons. So I think there's a great body of games showing Russell's outsized defensive impact.

Hakeem was a truly great player (and I have him #1 here and in my top 10 all time), but it is his playoff legacy that puts him that high, based on RS alone, he's more (off the top of my head) top 25-30. His offense certainly scaled up strongly in the playoffs when most players fall back. I'm open to hearing about how his defense did as well but I haven't personally done the work to make that claim.

[falcolombardi]

OPOY

1- a singularly game defining weapon which changed how defense had to be played to adapt to him
This version of him was still easier for teams to handle relatively speaking compared to the bigger lakers version but it was still the basketball equivalent of a tank who could keep up with a military truck in speed
Hakeem defended him well but he didnt lock him down nearly as much as people remember, the physical profile to slow him down remains excedingly specific (really damn big guys basically) and forcing teams to employ those regardless of anythingh else was really valuable on its own, as was the constant foul pressure he put on opposing front courts

2- karl malone: i like reggie a lot these seasons, penny was amazing in his short 3~ year prime
But as much as it annoys me to vote for Mr. nba second most famous rape case, he deserves the nod here.
Strong scorer who while not a top of the top historically (not resilient efficiency) was a high volume scorer who could be a offensive engine with his shooting and passing for the era

3-reggie: normally i would prefer the scorerl/playmaker big guard over the explosive scorer and off ball shooter. But reggie was a singularly resilient (rising even) playoffs force thst was a outlier in efficiency for a volume scorer at the time

HM: penny hardaway for being amazing in general as a playmaker and a scorer

DPOY
1- hakeem: not his best defensive season but the playoffs showed again how much better his playoffs gear was that any other big at the time, including peak david robinson and a not so peak patrick ewing
Locking down robinson so badly was impressive albeit his biggest value was as usual the rim protection

The versatility of defending a titan as shaq decently and being able to play outside the paint at the same time is still a nearly unrepeatable (russel?) Combo of strenght, lenght and mobility

2-ewing he was a worse regular season player than ewing and out of his own prime. But being the hearth of the league best defense when spurs struggled (if arguably due to bad shooting luck and a bad approach to defending hakeem) in thwir own matchup with houston has to count for somethingh

3-robinson: historical regular season with a bit of a bittersweet feeling due to some playoffs struggles in both ends, he was not necesarrily put in a position to suceed being asked to defend hakeem in isolation but we cannot deal in hipotheticals for a season award like this

POY

1-hakeem: taking a 6th seed to beat a gauntlet of 4 different top teams is a historica achievement even for the relatively weak era of the 90's top teams. Doing so as the best defender in the world and a effective offensive lead option...again, is somethingh else

2- shaq: legitimate superstar impact, played well in the offensive end against hakeem. Faced probably the only center in the league left that was still more incredible than him

3-reggie: what he did for the pacers offense is historically underappreciated outside niche circles like this board, low key a contender for playoffs best offensive player albeit it was not completely appreciated at the time due to his offense coming in a unusual package

4- robinson: dissapointing regular season with some leeway for how brutally though going against hakeem in a 4-out offense was for anyone ay the time
Dominant regular season barely gets him here for me

5- pippen: strictly speaking i dont think he was much worse if at all than his 94 version which i also consider top 5 worthy. Bulls were thin sfter losing horace and scottie kept them afloat with a decent record and a close point differential to previous season. Winning player

[AEnigma]

Votes are tallied. I recorded 13 approved votes: Djoker, AEnigma, B-Mitch 30, ShaqAttac, ILikeShaiGuys, OhayoKD, LA Bird, penbeast0, capfan33, konr0167, falcolombardi, One_and_Done, and trelos. DJoker, AEnigma, B-Mitch 30, trelos, falcolombardi, OhayoKD, and LA Bird voted for both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Please let me know if I seem to have missed or otherwise improperly recorded a vote.

1994-95 Results

(Retro) Offensive Player of the Year — Shaquille O’Neal

Code: Select all

Player       1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Shaquille O’Neal   3   1   2    20    0.571
2. Karl Malone   1   3   0    14    0.400
3. Reggie Miller   1   1   2    10    0.286
4. Penny Hardaway   1   0   1    6    0.171
5. Kevin Johnson   1   0   0    5    0.143
6. David Robinson  0   1   0    3    0.086
6. John Stockton   0   1   0    3    0.086
8. Hakeem Olajuwon   0   0   2    2    0.057

(Retro) Defensive Player of the Year — David Robinson (2)

Code: Select all

Player         1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. David Robinson   3   1   1    19    0.543
2. Hakeem Olajuwon    2   1   3    16   0.457
3. Scottie Pippen   2   1   0    13    0.371
4. Patrick Ewing    0   3   1    10    0.286
5. Dikembe Mutombo    0   1   1    4    0.114
6. Chris Dudley    0   0   1    1    0.029

Retro Player of the Year — Hakeem Olajuwon (4)

Code: Select all

Player      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Hakeem Olajuwon  10  3  0  0  0   121   0.931
2. David Robinson  2  4  6  1  0   81   0.623
3. Shaquille O’Neal  0  6  3  4  0   69   0.531
4. Karl Malone  0  0  3  6  1   34   0.262
5. Reggie Miller   1  0  1  0  2   17   0.131
6. Scottie Pippen  0  0  0  1  7   10    0.077
7. John Stockton   0  0  0  1  0   3   0.023
8. Penny Hardaway   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.008
8. Patrick Ewing   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.008
8. Gary Payton   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.008

In the prior project, there were 27 votes, with no overlap. These are the aggregated results of the two projects across 40 total ballots:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Hakeem Olajuwon  32  5  3  0  0   370   0.925
2. Shaquille O’Neal   5  18  12  5  0    251   0.628
3. David Robinson  2  17  15  6  0   232   0.580
4. Karl Malone  0  0  9  22  5   116   0.290
5. Scottie Pippen  0  0  0  2  12   18    0.045
6.  Reggie Miller   1  0  1  0  2   17   0.043
7. Charles Barkley   0  0  0  1  10   13   0.033
8. John Stockton   0  0  0  3  1   10   0.025
9. Patrick Ewing   0  0  0  0  8   8   0.020
10. Clyde Drexler   0  0  0  1  0   3   0.008
11. Penny Hardaway   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.003
12. Gary Payton   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.003

1996 thread will open shortly.

[Cavsfansince84]

For whatever reason, Hakeem was a great playoff player. It's not the Bill Russell thing though; Russell's teams dominated everyone in the regular season as well for 11.5 years (not so much in 69 which is a Hakeem type year) plus had a ridiculous record in close out games rather than dominating the PS to a greater degree than they did the RS. They did it by consistently for over a decade putting up defensive numbers that Hakeem's teams only approached in one or two peak seasons. So I think there's a great body of games showing Russell's outsized defensive impact.

Hakeem was a truly great player (and I have him #1 here and in my top 10 all time), but it is his playoff legacy that puts him that high, based on RS alone, he's more (off the top of my head) top 25-30. His offense certainly scaled up strongly in the playoffs when most players fall back. I'm open to hearing about how his defense did as well but I haven't personally done the work to make that claim.

I think there's a good case for Hakeem being top 20 in the rs(maybe top 15). Not that I want to derail the thread with that discussion but top 7 in mvp voting 10 times, top 7 in dpoy voting 10 times(winning both), volume scorer who was always +rts% and one of the greatest defenders and rebounders of all time. Prime that lasted 12-13 years. I think Kobe is roughly similar but I'd say Hakeem had more impact with his defense and rebounding. I also think he rates above DRob in the rs with his longevity.

[penbeast0]

Certainly possible; as I said, I didn't research or try to evaluate him for RS only against someone like (just for contemporaries) Robinson, Ewing, or Karl Malone.

[One_and_Done]

Stocktons career win percentage in random games without Malone is better than Pennys career win percentage in totality

That is a 6-4 record across 18 years. 47-45 if we count his rookie season.

Penny had a 58.8% career record, and it was 62.9% until his final four years. He was 61-30 (67%) without Shaq from 1994-97 before knee injuries derailed his career.

Definitely a comparable degree of confidence as 6-4 though.

The fact that it was done in sporadic games over the entirety of his career pre/mid/post prime makes it more meaningful than cherry-picking a few good prime stretches. Stockton was quite simply a better player than Hardaway and that would have been demonstrated to whatever solo metric you needed if the opportunity had arisen. Unfortunately, Stockton and Malone were an anomaly. To say the Jazz weren’t built around him is comedic though

Pretty much the opposite of what is true. A 6-4 record over 18 years is almost meaningless

[KembaWalker]

That is a 6-4 record across 18 years. 47-45 if we count his rookie season.

Penny had a 58.8% career record, and it was 62.9% until his final four years. He was 61-30 (67%) without Shaq from 1994-97 before knee injuries derailed his career.

Definitely a comparable degree of confidence as 6-4 though.

The fact that it was done in sporadic games over the entirety of his career pre/mid/post prime makes it more meaningful than cherry-picking a few good prime stretches. Stockton was quite simply a better player than Hardaway and that would have been demonstrated to whatever solo metric you needed if the opportunity had arisen. Unfortunately, Stockton and Malone were an anomaly. To say the Jazz weren’t built around him is comedic though

Pretty much the opposite of what is true. A 6-4 record over 18 years is almost meaningless

Again, we’ll never have enough data because Stockton and Malone were anomaly freaks of nature, whereas Penny Hardaway was your standard 2-3 year flameout guard that we’ve seen a bazillion times. He can go on the Mt Rushmore with Rose, Deron, Haliburton, Gilbert Arenas etc etc etc insert endless list of guys that you actually couldn’t build around because they can’t play NBA basketball

[IlikeSHAIguys]

...

Again the guys really going deep into the weeds are going Hakeem and whatever we think of his stats vs Shaq its the Bill Russell thing where at some point I think you just have to accept things as what they are. The Rockets can't do much when he isn't playing and then when he is playing they're beating 60 winners or like almost 60 winners and sweeping a team which is Shaq plus another superstar who can go win a bunch of games himself? We voted Bill Russell 1st over and over even though he didn't score much because he made the team win more than anyone. Hakeem's teams go from really sucking it seems to beating everyone and he's a russell like defender who also goes 33/4/10 but his True shooting isn't high enough so maybe Shaq was better when his way better team gets swept? Yeah, I can't go on that. ...

For whatever reason, Hakeem was a great playoff player. It's not the Bill Russell thing though; Russell's teams dominated everyone in the regular season as well for 11.5 years (not so much in 69 which is a Hakeem type year) plus had a ridiculous record in close out games rather than dominating the PS to a greater degree than they did the RS. They did it by consistently for over a decade putting up defensive numbers that Hakeem's teams only approached in one or two peak seasons. So I think there's a great body of games showing Russell's outsized defensive impact.

Hakeem was a truly great player (and I have him #1 here and in my top 10 all time), but it is his playoff legacy that puts him that high, based on RS alone, he's more (off the top of my head) top 25-30. His offense certainly scaled up strongly in the playoffs when most players fall back. I'm open to hearing about how his defense did as well but I haven't personally done the work to make that claim.

This project has me thinking his RS's might just be underrated from being on bad teams. Doesn't seem so different to me from like 80s MJ but he's winning titles too. Like he might have just been better in 88 too honest.

[DCasey91]

Wait how does a poster say lumping in NBA players with long term serious injuries saying they are not good enough.

I don't know if he knows this but major knee stuff is the worst injury to get across all sports.

Outside of the rarer leg stuff (navicular in partiular, leg/foot bone disasters)

It's the most common and the worst.

We live in ignorance. Trying doing anything with a dislocated knee or heck even a bruised one. I could name 10 different knee injuries off rip that has long term implications

The gall