The Gradey Dick Thread Part 3

[Chpwags]

40% on wide open 3's is not a good percentage for someone who can shoot as good as Dick. You have people like Curry and Hield shooting over 50% on those shots. That should be a 50/50 shot for him, I think that is what people are seeing.

You're comparing him to the greatest shooter in the history of the sport. Gradey is like 20.

You're still hoping he shoots better than 40 from open 3's. RJ is shooting 41.4% on those.

Thoose were the 2 I had seen recent numbers on Heild is shooting 55%. Go through a list of people who you consider good shooters and you will see that 40 percent on wide open 3 point shots is not a good percentage. Barrret and Ajbaji are both shooting better on those shots then Dick. If you want to be a 40% 3pt shooter on higher volume you need to shoot way better than 40% on the easiest 3 point shots to balance out the numbers. I am a Gradey fan but he needs to start hitting those shots at higher percentages to live up to his billing as a great 3 point shooter.

[Psubs]

He is like Gary...seems to miss the open 3's but makes more difficult ones.

Here are his shooting splits (fg%) based on closest defender:

6+ feet (wide open): 40%
4-6ft (open): 39%
2-4 feet (tight): 13%
0-2 feet (very tight): no attempts

Great that he's not forcing the shots and ball-faking and driving or passing when the defender is right on him. AMAZING.

His 2nd year is close to Reggie Miller's 2nd year but Gradey is 2 years younger. With muscle memory, in a couple years he'll starting hitting the open 3's like FT's.

[Psubs]

You're comparing him to the greatest shooter in the history of the sport. Gradey is like 20.

You're still hoping he shoots better than 40 from open 3's. RJ is shooting 41.4% on those.

Thoose were the 2 I had seen recent numbers on Heild is shooting 55%. Go through a list of people who you consider good shooters and you will see that 40 percent on wide open 3 point shots is not a good percentage. Barrret and Ajbaji are both shooting better on those shots then Dick. If you want to be a 40% 3pt shooter on higher volume you need to shoot way better than 40% on the easiest 3 point shots to balance out the numbers. I am a Gradey fan but he needs to start hitting those shots at higher percentages to live up to his billing as a great 3 point shooter.

Takes year of shooting to get the strength and muscle memory. Just because he's wide open maybe he was on the move and needs to take an extra half 2nd to gain absolute balance.

[Tripod]

Also to remember....

...last year he was a great corner shooter. This year he is taking more non corner 3's so is still expanding his range.

And we all know development is never linear. But just remember he is still 3rd in PPG from that draft year despite being one of the youngest guys.

[ash_k]

Had Gradey stayed one more year at KU from (14ppg|5|.403 3%|.863 FT%) to then 20+|6+|.400+ 3% |.900 FT as a 6'6 athletic kid with his shooting-form above the head(a special skill alone with most shooters these days shooting below)
At the very worst he would have been picked 3rd ahead of 6'2 Sheppard!
At best, as the former high school player of the year, he would have been picked ahead of the 2 French boys as the number one pick!

Which would mean our starting 5 in theory is composed of 3 Top4 picks already; how many more high picks some of you want in there?!

[Ell Curry]

Benching RJ might be something we'll have to consider going forward in his contract. Barnes, IQ, and Dick should be taking most of the shots.

I mentioned it before. Mogbo has skills we need and if he gets reps shooting open threes it's great in a development season. We'd have another guy who can use as the POA defender, and he has the wingspan to provide help defense and deflections. The switching ability is another added benefit of having him start rather than RJ.

RJ is best utilized as a bench piece. He's getting paid more than he should for that role but it's hard to fit him into that primary line up.

I've always been of the mindset that RJ would be best served as the 6th man and could flourish as a perennial 6moty candidate/winner. I don't think it needs to be done quite yet as the team is still pretty thin, but long term I think that's best for the team. Unless GD doesn't develop as I'm hoping, then obviously we start whoever is best.

Mogbo would actually be great off the bench with RJ as the 6th man, as RJ has shown he can facilitate at least enough to get solid looks for teammates. Could be a super dangerous bench eventually.

That's why the tank is so important, to me. If we can get a quality starting wing, the team looks genuinely solid:

Poeltl-Olynyk
Barnes-Mogbo
2025 1st-RJ
Dick-Agbaji
Quickley-Walter/Mitchell

with RJ as the main bench scorer, Olynyk as a stretchy big and Mogbo and Agbaji as 2-way player, that's solid. PG is a battle between Mitchell and Walter, with Mitchell bringing defence and Walter hopefully bringing shooting and most of the real ballhandling is done by Olynyk, Mogbo and RJ.

And 2 firsts in 2026 still to use on an Olynyk replacement (and there's a chance Chomche comes good), a proper backup PG or in a trade if there's an upgrade somewhere.

If RJ is is starting, I don't know if I see us being particularly good. If RJ, Agbaji and Mogbo are our 6th-8th guys, that looks like a solid outfit.

[Thaddy]

Turning RJ into a bench player is the best step we can take in terms of development and rebuilding. The only way he's being sold in a positive manner is if he's labelled as an expensive sixth man. I don't think any team in the league wants him as a primary starting offensive option.

[RoteSchroder]

Had Gradey stayed one more year at KU from (14ppg|5|.403 3%|.863 FT%) to then 20+|6+|.400+ 3% |.900 FT as a 6'6 athletic kid with his shooting-form above the head(a special skill alone with most shooters these days shooting below)
At the very worst he would have been picked 3rd ahead of 6'2 Sheppard!
At best, as the former high school player of the year, he would have been picked ahead of the 2 French boys as the number one pick!

Which would mean our starting 5 in theory is composed of 3 Top4 picks already; how many more high picks some of you want in there?!

By that logic, if you put RJ and Gradey in the Scottie draft, neither are top 4 picks. Meaning we only got one top 4 pick now.

Ultimately, it depends on the draft. If it's a flat draft of mediocre players from 1-15, then a top 4 pick isn't that great. If it's a top heavy draft, then a top 4 pick has a ton of value. If you have a GM that's good at finding gems and willing to go against the norm to reach for these potential gems, then a higher pick is always better as you don't want to just miss out on that gem by another similar GM.

The 2025 draft to me is fairly flat from 1-10 with higher risk prospects near the end of the top 10 and possibly scattered throughout the rest of the draft. If teams go for high floor players within the top 10, then even 10-15 might be solid, but statistically speaking, further down you go, the higher the uncertainty is in terms of the chances that a high upside player reaches their potential.

[ash_k]

Had Gradey stayed one more year at KU from (14ppg|5|.403 3%|.863 FT%) to then 20+|6+|.400+ 3% |.900 FT as a 6'6 athletic kid with his shooting-form above the head(a special skill alone with most shooters these days shooting below)
At the very worst he would have been picked 3rd ahead of 6'2 Sheppard!
At best, as the former high school player of the year, he would have been picked ahead of the 2 French boys as the number one pick!

Which would mean our starting 5 in theory is composed of 3 Top4 picks already; how many more high picks some of you want in there?!

By that logic, if you put RJ and Gradey in the Scottie draft, neither are top 4 picks. Meaning we only got one top 4 pick now.

Ultimately, it depends on the draft. If it's a flat draft of mediocre players from 1-15, then a top 4 pick isn't that great. If it's a top heavy draft, then a top 4 pick has a ton of value. If you have a GM that's good at finding gems and willing to go against the norm to reach for these potential gems, then a higher pick is always better as you don't want to just miss out on that gem by another similar GM.

The 2025 draft to me is fairly flat from 1-10 with higher risk prospects near the end of the top 10 and possibly scattered throughout the rest of the draft. If teams go for high floor players within the top 10, then even 10-15 might be solid, but statistically speaking, further down you go, the higher the uncertainty is in terms of the chances that a high upside player reaches their potential.

Your logic is severely flawed.

RJ would(still) have been a top4 pick in 2020 (he was drafted in 2019)
Scottie would(still) have been a top4 pick in 2022 (he was drafted in 2021)
Gradey would have been a top4 pick in 2024 (he was drafted in 2023)
Get it?! Simple.

Gradey must have been 15 years old when RJ was drafted, I am not going to put them in the same 'mock' draft?!

[Jerry Lucas]

Had Gradey stayed one more year at KU from (14ppg|5|.403 3%|.863 FT%) to then 20+|6+|.400+ 3% |.900 FT as a 6'6 athletic kid with his shooting-form above the head(a special skill alone with most shooters these days shooting below)
At the very worst he would have been picked 3rd ahead of 6'2 Sheppard!
At best, as the former high school player of the year, he would have been picked ahead of the 2 French boys as the number one pick!

Which would mean our starting 5 in theory is composed of 3 Top4 picks already; how many more high picks some of you want in there?!

By that logic, if you put RJ and Gradey in the Scottie draft, neither are top 4 picks. Meaning we only got one top 4 pick now.

Ultimately, it depends on the draft. If it's a flat draft of mediocre players from 1-15, then a top 4 pick isn't that great. If it's a top heavy draft, then a top 4 pick has a ton of value. If you have a GM that's good at finding gems and willing to go against the norm to reach for these potential gems, then a higher pick is always better as you don't want to just miss out on that gem by another similar GM.

The 2025 draft to me is fairly flat from 1-10 with higher risk prospects near the end of the top 10 and possibly scattered throughout the rest of the draft. If teams go for high floor players within the top 10, then even 10-15 might be solid, but statistically speaking, further down you go, the higher the uncertainty is in terms of the chances that a high upside player reaches their potential.

Your logic is severely flawed.

RJ would(still) have been a top4 pick in 2020 (he was drafted in 2019)
Scottie would(still) have been a top4 pick in 2022 (he was drafted in 2021)
Gradey would have been a top4 pick in 2024 (he was drafted in 2023)
Get it?! Simple.

Gradey must have been 15 years old when RJ was drafted, I am not going to put them in the same 'mock' draft?!

The bolded part of your post just jogged my memory of when a poster back in the 2023 draft threads thought I was joking when I said I had Gradey Dick ranked in my top 5.

[Duffman100]

Needs to start sticking the open jumpers.
Needs to play a modicum of defense, gets lost off ball way too often.

I have faith, but those are the two biggest ones.

[Johnny Bball]

Turning RJ into a bench player is the best step we can take in terms of development and rebuilding. The only way he's being sold in a positive manner is if he's labelled as an expensive sixth man. I don't think any team in the league wants him as a primary starting offensive option.

Trading RJ is far more beneficial than making him a sixth man that has to lead the bench unit. Its the exact thing he's not best at, being a first option all the time on the floor, when Barnes and Quickly sit. It's just a bad idea.

He's not a primary option, but that doesn't mean he's not a good second or third option that most teams would not have start.

As for Gradey, nobody has any idea of what that finished product looks like yet.

[ATLTimekeeper]

You're comparing him to the greatest shooter in the history of the sport. Gradey is like 20.

You're still hoping he shoots better than 40 from open 3's. RJ is shooting 41.4% on those.

Thoose were the 2 I had seen recent numbers on Heild is shooting 55%. Go through a list of people who you consider good shooters and you will see that 40 percent on wide open 3 point shots is not a good percentage. Barrret and Ajbaji are both shooting better on those shots then Dick. If you want to be a 40% 3pt shooter on higher volume you need to shoot way better than 40% on the easiest 3 point shots to balance out the numbers. I am a Gradey fan but he needs to start hitting those shots at higher percentages to live up to his billing as a great 3 point shooter.

I've looked through the numbers from last year, and 40% is a good outcome. You realize that Steph and Buddy shot 45 and 44% on wide open 3s last year. These numbers fluctuate over time, for example in 2021-22, Steph shot 40.9% and Buddy shot 37% on wide open 3s. The reality is the high end for players will be around 45%, and for movement shooters like Gradey they will be taking tougher shots. Just spend the next game watching the looks that Barrett and Agbaji get, where they're shooting from and compare it to Gradey. I think you'll see why I think it's an apples to oranges comparison.

[James_Raptors]

Excellent post ATL.

[MEDIC]

Needs to start sticking the open jumpers.
Needs to play a modicum of defense, gets lost off ball way too often.

I have faith, but those are the two biggest ones.

Yeah. That is where I am at with Gradey.

If you are a shooter, you have to hit wide open 3's at a high % (45% or more). If you are a player like Gradey & you can't punish teams for leaving you wide open, it affects the value you bring to the team.

So far, I have seen Gradey play well on high volume shooting. I would like to see him start scoring great numbers on lower volume.

I really like Gradey & think he is going to be a good player, but right now, Walter (& Mogbo) are starting to sneak past him as the more interesting prospects for me. He is just not doing any one thing at an elite level consistently. If you are not a defender, you have to bring an elite offensive skill to the table night in & night out.

I wonder what his shooting % is coming off screens. Maybe its better. One thing we have to find out with Gradey is what situations he shoots the highest % & make sure he is shooting most of his shots in those situations. He was on a tear earlier this season playing off RJ. Was that just a hot streak, or were the conditions different?

I found this interesting article on Lebron's effect on Kyle Korver:

https://www.fearthesword.com/2017/11/20/16667932/kyle-korver-three-point-shooting-lebron-james

[MEDIC]

Turning RJ into a bench player is the best step we can take in terms of development and rebuilding. The only way he's being sold in a positive manner is if he's labelled as an expensive sixth man. I don't think any team in the league wants him as a primary starting offensive option.

Trading RJ is far more beneficial than making him a sixth man that has to lead the bench unit. Its the exact thing he's not best at, being a first option all the time on the floor, when Barnes and Quickly sit. It's just a bad idea.

He's not a primary option, but that doesn't mean he's not a good second or third option that most teams would not have start.

This.

We have a guy who has been a top prospect all his life, drafted 3rd overall, has scored the most points out of anyone in his draft class to date.

He is scoring 22.5ppg on good % as a Toronto Raptor. 6.5 rebounds. 4.8 assists. Basically allstar numbers & career highs. Only 24 years old.

He is not going to come off the bench for Gradey Dick or Ochai Agbaji.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Gradey has a defender with him all game, which is why he actually doesn't get many wide open 3s. It's also why our offense generally hums when he's on the court. This also causes Gradey to rush his shots. He does a bit of Steph 'not even looking at the rim' shots.

[ConSarnit]

Needs to start sticking the open jumpers.
Needs to play a modicum of defense, gets lost off ball way too often.

I have faith, but those are the two biggest ones.

Yeah. That is where I am at with Gradey.

If you are a shooter, you have to hit wide open 3's at a high % (45% or more). If you are a player like Gradey & you can't punish teams for leaving you wide open, it affects the value you bring to the team.

So far, I have seen Gradey play well on high volume shooting. I would like to see him start scoring great numbers on lower volume.

I really like Gradey & think he is going to be a good player, but right now, Walter (& Mogbo) are starting to sneak past him as the more interesting prospects for me. He is just not doing any one thing at an elite level consistently. If you are not a defender, you have to bring an elite offensive skill to the table night in & night out..

This ignores context. Some wide open 3's could very well fall under ATB shots coming off of a screen. Dick is also shooting 66% of his 3pa from above the break. Those 3's are more valuable than corner 3's. As mentioned above, Dick's shot diet is not the same as someone like RJ or Agbaji. Dick is taking tougher 3's from a more valuable place on the floor. A volume movement shooter is more valuable than a spot-up shooter, even if the spot-up shooter is shooting a better % (obviously unless the gap in shooting % is large).

Dick taking 5.4 ATB 3's per game at 36% is very valuable.

[RoteSchroder]

Had Gradey stayed one more year at KU from (14ppg|5|.403 3%|.863 FT%) to then 20+|6+|.400+ 3% |.900 FT as a 6'6 athletic kid with his shooting-form above the head(a special skill alone with most shooters these days shooting below)
At the very worst he would have been picked 3rd ahead of 6'2 Sheppard!
At best, as the former high school player of the year, he would have been picked ahead of the 2 French boys as the number one pick!

Which would mean our starting 5 in theory is composed of 3 Top4 picks already; how many more high picks some of you want in there?!

By that logic, if you put RJ and Gradey in the Scottie draft, neither are top 4 picks. Meaning we only got one top 4 pick now.

Ultimately, it depends on the draft. If it's a flat draft of mediocre players from 1-15, then a top 4 pick isn't that great. If it's a top heavy draft, then a top 4 pick has a ton of value. If you have a GM that's good at finding gems and willing to go against the norm to reach for these potential gems, then a higher pick is always better as you don't want to just miss out on that gem by another similar GM.

The 2025 draft to me is fairly flat from 1-10 with higher risk prospects near the end of the top 10 and possibly scattered throughout the rest of the draft. If teams go for high floor players within the top 10, then even 10-15 might be solid, but statistically speaking, further down you go, the higher the uncertainty is in terms of the chances that a high upside player reaches their potential.

Your logic is severely flawed.

RJ would(still) have been a top4 pick in 2020 (he was drafted in 2019)
Scottie would(still) have been a top4 pick in 2022 (he was drafted in 2021)
Gradey would have been a top4 pick in 2024 (he was drafted in 2023)
Get it?! Simple.

Gradey must have been 15 years old when RJ was drafted, I am not going to put them in the same 'mock' draft?!

They can all be in the same draft if you put them in the 2023 draft. RJ would be an older rookie. Then do some shifting around with other young players.

Put Wemby, Wagner, Banchero, Jalen Williams, Cade, Mobley, Lamelo, Anthony Edwards in the 2023 draft.

Omg, we have no top 4 picks on our roster!

[deck]

I for one am still quite high on Gradey. Shooting splits need to be better, but watching him play, I see a very solid basketball player that is more than just a shooter. I also think someone who is active off-ball is important for us, at least right now, as we don't have a ton of on the ball shot creation.

Anyone comparing him to Gary, I can only conclude that you don't actually watch the team play basketball.