49er4life1979 wrote:CrimsonCrew wrote:wco81 wrote:
It's not a question of upgrade. The next braintrust may not even be as good as the current one.
My argument is that the current one has reached their ceiling already and is likely on the way down.
So it's pretty certain that you're not going to win with them and letting them rebuild the team for another 4-5 years will also prove futile.
Take a chance on someone younger and hungrier.
Yeah I do believe the team is at a point where there's nothing to lose in shaking it up.
That seems pretty knee-jerk. I don't see any reason to believe that Kyle has peaked. On the contrary, hopefully some of the setbacks this year supply a bit of a wakeup call. But we're also seeing the effects of losing so many DCs. The offense hasn't won games the way it's capable of doing, but it also hasn't typically been the primary reason that we're losing. That has been due to a defense that just hasn't stopped teams in key moments all season (with some STs disasters sprinkled in).
I also don't see why Kyle wouldn't be about as hungry as they come. He needs a title to cement a legacy as one of the great offensive minds. He's got to be about as hungry as they come.
Now, there are definitely some concerns with personnel decisions. The last draft was strong, but the 2023 draft was a disaster as only Dee Winters looks like a potential starting-caliber player (we'll see if Brown can rebound, but this year has been awful). Take away Purdy, and 2022 doesn't look much better with three outright busts to start. Honestly, between 2019 and this past year, it's been almost all bad. If they don't fix that, then Shanahan probably won't last.
Similarly, he's just got to make some major changes on his staff. If Wilks was gone after a year, Sorenson shouldn't have even made it to this point. Same with Schneider. Both guys need to go this offseason.
But just as I think it was silly to say Purdy had peaked last year (even though it was an incredible year that he may never match statistically), it seems very premature to say that Shanahan has peaked. But this team has to find a way to do it with more of a strength in numbers approach vs. having blue chips at almost every spot.
Between 2019 and now they have drafted Bosa, Deebo, Greenlaw, Aiyuk, Lenoir, Hufanga, Jennings, Purdy, JP Mason. The 2024 draft is looking good so far. Not bad at all.
I was looking at 2020 through 2023. Obviously 2019 was great, even if Deebo is struggling now.
Honestly, I'm being way too hard on 2020. Kinlaw was a bust, but Aiyuk was a great pick, McKivitz more than worth the fifth-round pick we spent on him, and Jennings awesome in the 7th round. But 2021-2023 are bad.
2021 went Lance, Banks, Sermon, Thomas, Moore, Lenoir, Hufanda, and Mitchell. And obviously we sold the farm for Lance. Lenoir has been great, and Hufanga has been good when healthy, but when you effectively miss on your first five picks (Banks has been a regular starter, but he plays a non-premium position and has struggled more than he's played well), it's not a good draft.
2022 was arguably worse, as Purdy is the only legit contributor out of the bunch. And that one pick basically saves the draft, but we basically fell into that one. All credit for landing Purdy, but if we had any inkling, we would have taken him with our first pick in the draft.
2023 was more of the same, with everyone except Winters looking like a disappointment. Beal has been fine as a rotational player - though we brought him in as a pass rusher and he's been better against the run. Luter might turn into something, but do date he's been responsible for two game-losing STs flubs. Brown has been awful this year.
Overall, the drafting has been better than they get credit for, but they have to get better in the early rounds. Their hit rate in rounds 2-4 is like 15%. They went three years - two of which lacked first round picks - and made ten picks in those rounds, and they literally didn't add a single above average contributor (Banks, Sermon, Thomas, Jackson, Davis-Price, Gray, Burford, Brown, Moody, Latu). You can't sustain a competitive team that way.