How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be?

[Zonkerbl]

I don't think it works like that.


No ones expecting Risacher to be a star either

Well, you've been snakebit by following the Wiz, whose high draft picks have been abominable, except for Wall. With a #2 pick you should get at least a starter on a championship team. To meet expectations Sarr needs to play solid defense at the center position, get close to double digit rebounds, and take advantage of his weirdly exceptional ball handling skills somehow. If he doubles his strength, like Mobley did for the Cavs, he still has a chance at doing this.

Coaching staff wants him to be someone who can defend every position. Right now he can't defend any position.

[Frichuela]

[quote="smoothSeph"]Any team losing by 30 pts every other game is a cause for concern. Flagg or Bailey don't come in and make this a winning team, we still lose by 20.

Have to be careful to not let the young guys get used to losing.[/quote]

This worries me too, particularly when we are losing night in night out without a fight.

As other posters said, if we don’t hit in the 2025 and/or 2026 draft the Winger and Dawkins era may end…

[DCZards]

I don't think it works like that.


No ones expecting Risacher to be a star either

Well, you've been snakebit by following the Wiz, whose high draft picks have been abominable, except for Wall. With a #2 pick you should get at least a starter on a championship team.

Starter on a championship team…that’s a lot more reasonable than “superstar.”

[Zonkerbl]

I don't think it works like that.


No ones expecting Risacher to be a star either

Well, you've been snakebit by following the Wiz, whose high draft picks have been abominable, except for Wall. With a #2 pick you should get at least a starter on a championship team.

Starter on a championship team…that’s a lot more reasonable than “superstar.”

Well yeah, that's the floor of your probability distribution. The mean would be "coaches pick to the all star team", and 50% of the time you should get better than that - occasional to perennial fan picked all star.

Like, a #1 pick should have a 25% chance to be hall of famer, 50% chance to be a perennial all star, 20% chance coaches pick, 5% Kwame Brown.

A #2 pick should have a 10% HoF chance, 35% perennial all star chance, 25% coaches pick, 20% chance starter on a championship caliber team, 10% chance Darko Milicic

[Frichuela]

These guys here sound quite concerned about how the coaching staff are using Bilal (and Sarr for the matter) in offense.

https://bleav.com/shows/bleav-in-wizards/episodes/the-wizards-won-a-basketball-game-but-whats-going-on-with-bilal-coulibaly-plus-trade-talk/

Although he had a decent game vs. MEM last night, Bilal is clearly struggling offensively. The question is what is the coaching staff doing to address this? Bilal used to initiate a lot of action in our wins vs. ATL earlier in the season. But why is he parked now at the corner?

[Dark Faze]

It's going as expected. Slowly and painfully.

That's why not trading Beal years back was so disastrous. It's really really hard when you don't boost your rebuild with strong assets. So there's pressure on the FO to really land with these high picks over the next couple of drafts.

The bad thing about this rebuild is the free agency portal just seems worse than ever of late. I don't know if it's a combination of aging stars or what, but it seemed like back in the day if you really wanted to you might at least be able to get a nice all-star in free agency. Not a true superstar, but a good guy that can glow up your franchise. And it seems like those guys just don't go to market lately.

It's not an issue right now, but it's an issue potentially down the road for a team that is probably going to have to outright buy a franchise level guy unless the draft luck really works out.

[Zonkerbl]

I mean, the timing couldn't be worse, right as the NIL thing is ramping up and the most talented players are choosing to stay in school for a few extra years, that's when you decide to start your rebuilding process? Great.

[doclinkin]

I mean, the timing couldn't be worse, right as the NIL thing is ramping up and the most talented players are choosing to stay in school for a few extra years, that's when you decide to start your rebuilding process? Great.

Not really. The obvious most-talented players still jump to the NBA. The money is better. The status. If you can get drafted in the lotto, you have to take the chance and start your career early.

The transfer portal thing works fine to showcase lesser talents who look for an opportunity to shine in a new uniform. But I don't see that as a problem, it just means your mid-late round picks are spent on guys who are more likely to contribute in their first contract. Easier to evaluate.

The bulge of players who stayed late just passed with the 5th and 6th year Covid seniors who managed an extra year of eligibility. But the talented players who stick in school are not being drafted early anyway because of the tendency of teams to try to outsmart the world, to look for new supertalents instead of proven commodities. Novelty bias vs. box score evidence. Zach Edey will be a first ballot hall of famer on his NCAA career alone, and yeah he went in the lottery, but he was mocked all year in the late first round. And it was still mostly the one-and-done types who were taken ahead of him.

Anyway, even with the worst record, odds are that we pick 4th. No matter what you do, odds are against every team in the league to select a generational talent. The occasional Stef Curry will slip, Jokic etc, but otherwise those obviously dominant Wemby LeBJ Shaq types only show up every 20-30 years. Nobody has a lock on them. So if instead you end up picking from the highly talented guys who broke out late, you might end up getting a Kawhi or Paul George type just by maximizing the picks you do have. And stockpiling all the picks so you can constantly renew and refresh with incoming talent. The new CBA will reward teams who can keep together a squad of excellent and skilled guys, if you can't land that superduperstar. Both strategies look like they can work. IF you can grow your own version of this Celtics squad (deep, skilled, 2-way team players) you'll have a better chance to keep that team together than if you recruit the Big 3 that you needed in the last era.

Anyway there's a chance. This front office seems to be doing it the right way. We will see. If OKC wins a chip in the next half decade then there's hope that we can turn it around here following that same model.

[dobrojim]

Well, you've been snakebit by following the Wiz, whose high draft picks have been abominable, except for Wall. With a #2 pick you should get at least a starter on a championship team.

Starter on a championship team…that’s a lot more reasonable than “superstar.”

Well yeah, that's the floor of your probability distribution. The mean would be "coaches pick to the all star team", and 50% of the time you should get better than that - occasional to perennial fan picked all star.

Like, a #1 pick should have a 25% chance to be hall of famer, 50% chance to be a perennial all star, 20% chance coaches pick, 5% Kwame Brown.

A #2 pick should have a 10% HoF chance, 35% perennial all star chance, 25% coaches pick, 20% chance starter on a championship caliber team, 10% chance Darko Milicic

Curious what PiF would say about this.

The next draft might just be an outlier year though. That said probably not like 84.

[Zonkerbl]

Starter on a championship team…that’s a lot more reasonable than “superstar.”

Well yeah, that's the floor of your probability distribution. The mean would be "coaches pick to the all star team", and 50% of the time you should get better than that - occasional to perennial fan picked all star.

Like, a #1 pick should have a 25% chance to be hall of famer, 50% chance to be a perennial all star, 20% chance coaches pick, 5% Kwame Brown.

A #2 pick should have a 10% HoF chance, 35% perennial all star chance, 25% coaches pick, 20% chance starter on a championship caliber team, 10% chance Darko Milicic

Curious what PiF would say about this.

The next draft might just be an outlier year though. That said probably not like 84.

In the 2003 draft, where Darko Milicic was selected at #2, the other four top five picks were LeBron, Carmelo, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.

Yeah these probabilities are probably way too high for hall of famers. I'd have to do some actual number crunching to get something more accurate. But my point is, expectations for the #2 pick are and should be high. As in, disappointing if you don't get a perennial all star high.

[AFM]

That was like the greatest draft of all time. Now do any other year.

Like Jim said you’re basically asking for PIF to write you a 5000 word essay

[Zonkerbl]

Top two draft picks and how the #2 did:
2004: Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor - back issues
2005: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams - not a bust but never an all star, had lots of injuries
2006: Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge - Fan selected all star 5 times, 7 overall all star appearances
2007: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant - Hall of Famer
2008: Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley - starter on a playoff team, not a 100% bust
2009: Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet - "one of the biggest busts in nba draft history"
2010: John Wall, Evan Turner - Not a bust exactly but not a playoff quality starter either.
2011: Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams - bust
2012: Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - bust
2013: Anthony Bennett, Oladipo - two time all star
2014: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker - ouch, Embiid was selected 3rd. Bust.
2015: Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell - one time all star, playoff team starter
2016: Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram - One time all star, playoff team starter
2017: Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball - no all star appearances
2018: Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III - GOAT
2019: Zion Williamson, Ja Morant - hall of famer
2020: Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman - scrub, not quite a bust
2021: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green - Playoff team starter
2022: Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren - All star quality player when he's not injured
2023: Wembanyama, Brandon Miller - ok so far?

I've gotta say, I'm SHOCKED at how cursed the #2 slot is. WOW. Way more outright busts than I expected. Two hall of famers, one perennial all star, 5 or six playoff quality starters, the rest were marginal players or injury plagued, and four outright busts

[DCZards]

I've gotta say, I'm SHOCKED at how cursed the #2 slot is. WOW. Way more outright busts than I expected. Two hall of famers, one perennial all star, 5 or six playoff quality starters, the rest were marginal players or injury plagued, and four outright busts

…thus the pushback when you say that, as the #2 pick, Sarr should be a “superstar” or a perennial all-star. That’s far from a given…even for the #1 pick.

[Zonkerbl]

I've gotta say, I'm SHOCKED at how cursed the #2 slot is. WOW. Way more outright busts than I expected. Two hall of famers, one perennial all star, 5 or six playoff quality starters, the rest were marginal players or injury plagued, and four outright busts

…thus the pushback when you say that, as the #2 pick, Sarr should be a “superstar” or a perennial all-star. That’s far from a given…even for the #1 pick.

Well, what did I say for #1, 25% chance of being a hall of famer? Looks more like 20%: Dwight Howard, Kyrie Irving (?), Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Wembenyama probably. And then I said 50% chance of being a perennial all star, I'm way off there, more like 25%. Looks like about a 35% chance of getting a quality playoff level starter and a decent chance of getting a bust.

For #2 your expectations should be 10% hall of famer, 10% perennial all star, 30% playoff quality starter, 30% marginal NBA career, 20% bust.

All right, I am persuadable with evidence. So getting an all star is unlikely at the #2 but still possible, your average #2 player is a quality starter on a playoff team but also highly likely to bust or have an injury plagued career. I'd be curious to do the same exercise for the #3 slot and see if the #2 is as cursed as it looks.

I think if Sarr gets stronger he could eventually upgrade to a quality starter for a playoff bound team. Right now he looks like a marginal player who may make a career coming off the bench for awhile if he doesn't get injured, which would still be well below the mean performance of the #2 slot.

[Zonkerbl]

Ben Gordon - playoff team starter
Deron Williams - perennial all star? wikipedia says he went to 3 all star games. Maybe as a coach's pick though?
Adam Morrison (ouch) - bust
Al Horford - Perennial all star
O.J. Mayo - marginal quality starter
James Harden - HoF
Derrick Favors - playoff quality starter, looks like?
Enes Kanter- soso NBA career
Bradley Beal - perennial all star? kinda the same category as Deron Williams
Otto Porter - GOAT
Joel Embiid - HOF
Jahlil Okafor - bust
Jaylen Brown - perennial all star
Jayson Tatum - perennial all star, maybe HoF
Luka Doncic - HoF
RJ Barrett - playoff quality starter
LaMelo Ball - perennial all star?
Evan Mobley - playoff quality starter
Jabari Smith Jr - not a bust, not a playoff quality starter, looks like
Scoot Henderson - same

So I count three, maybe four hall of famers, 4-5 perennial all stars, 4-5 playoff team starters, 5 marginal players, 2 busts. Better than the #2 slot. Significantly. Actually looks about the same as the #1

[Tyrone Messby]

If anything it just shows how awful Kuzma and Poole are. They’re not even talented enough to win another game or two on their talent alone.

[closg00]

I am most concerned about sliding to the 5th pick, don't care about the rest. As an aside, a real NBA coach could probably do better with this bunch while sucking.

[doclinkin]

Jaylen Brown - perennial all star
Jayson Tatum - perennial all star, maybe HoF

Which is what we’re hoping to build over the next few drafts. Celtics style. Draft complementary talent high in the draft. Build a team around them with savvy trades enhanced by stockpiled picks.

If we select a few role players on the way up, that’s alright. We just can’t afford total busts. But picking for youth and potential means you have no idea what the top end is for our guys. The burden is on our developmental program. You’re betting on growth above all.

It’s not the Grizzlies model where they take finished players they can slot right in. Which is more my style tbh. But the Dawkins method has a built in ‘process’. If your youth movement takes time to grow you still pick high while they season. And maybe you re-sign them cheaper before they break out. Deni style.

Sarr isn’t good by any standard. But he doesn’t look like a total bust. His flaws are fixable, mostly with weight room work. The assists, handle, blocks, footwork and foundation of a jumper all look like they could grow into something useful. He doesn’t look like a slow-processor type. Just a big kid. Maybe a bit timid in the pit. But maybe as he gets bigger that goes away. The tools are there. This is a rookie who blocked and dunked on Wemby in the same game. Ok he gave up a career high to his countryman that game. But still. He didn’t shy away from the challenge.

I wasn’t impressed with Sarr in the run up to the draft. But I’ve seen enough flashes to think he could be a successful and unique player on a winning team. A gigantic 3 & D guy. A seven foot glue guy. Even if he never develops a dominant low post game, you can see a player like that causing problems for opposing teams in a playoff setting. AND side benefit would be if he scrimmages with the French NT in World Cup play etc. Testing himself against Wemby all summer.

[payitforward]

Starter on a championship team…that’s a lot more reasonable than “superstar.”

Well yeah, that's the floor of your probability distribution. The mean would be "coaches pick to the all star team", and 50% of the time you should get better than that - occasional to perennial fan picked all star.

Like, a #1 pick should have a 25% chance to be hall of famer, 50% chance to be a perennial all star, 20% chance coaches pick, 5% Kwame Brown.

A #2 pick should have a 10% HoF chance, 35% perennial all star chance, 25% coaches pick, 20% chance starter on a championship caliber team, 10% chance Darko Milicic

Curious what PiF would say about this....

I've been off the reservation for a week as we've gone through a move.

As to drafts & player career quality, it's obvious that the numbers aren't nearly large enough to make the distribution curve statistically significant. In fact, the raw data doesn't look anything like that good!

Here are the 20 guys taken second in the draft from 2002-2021:

Jay Williams
Darko Milicic
Emeka Okafor
Marvin Williams
LaMarcus Aldridge
Kevin Durant
Michael Beasley
Hasheem Thabeet
Evan Turner
Derrick Williams
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Victor Oladipo
Jabari Parker
D’Angelo Russell
Brandon Ingram
Lonzo Ball
Marvin Bagley III
Ja Morant
James Wiseman

I see 9 guys who, basically, range from complete busts to utterly meh (Milicic, Beasley, Thabeet, D. Williams, Kidd-Gilchrist, Parker, Ball, Bagley III, & Wiseman). Plus Jay Williams, whose career was ended by injury after 2000 minutes.

That's 10 of the 20.

I do see one HOF player (Durant) & one other extraordinary player (Morant). Plus another very high-quality player: Aldridge.

That's 3 of the 20.

Then there are the other 7: Okafor, Williams, Turner, Oladipo, Russell, Ingram, Ball.

Those guys were either starters or high-level journeymen -- or likely could have been if their careers hadn't been derailed by injury.

That's the context for discussing Alexander Sarr.

[payitforward]

Ben Gordon - playoff team starter
Deron Williams - perennial all star? wikipedia says he went to 3 all star games. Maybe as a coach's pick though?
Adam Morrison (ouch) - bust
Al Horford - Perennial all star
O.J. Mayo - marginal quality starter
James Harden - HoF
Derrick Favors - playoff quality starter, looks like?
Enes Kanter- soso NBA career
Bradley Beal - perennial all star? kinda the same category as Deron Williams
Otto Porter - GOAT
Joel Embiid - HOF
Jahlil Okafor - bust
Jaylen Brown - perennial all star
Jayson Tatum - perennial all star, maybe HoF
Luka Doncic - HoF
RJ Barrett - playoff quality starter
LaMelo Ball - perennial all star?
Evan Mobley - playoff quality starter
Jabari Smith Jr - not a bust, not a playoff quality starter, looks like
Scoot Henderson - same

So I count three, maybe four hall of famers, 4-5 perennial all stars, 4-5 playoff team starters, 5 marginal players, 2 busts. Better than the #2 slot. Significantly. Actually looks about the same as the #1

Ben Gordon wasn't as good as you suggest. Mayo was a terrible, awful player. Barrett isn't any good at all. Mobley, Smith, Henderson are all way too young to characterize with confidence. Okafor was undone by injury.