Ace Bailey

[tontoz]

Hello gang. Another 0 to 3 game.

Bailey is closer to out of lotto than being the #3 pick.

He also had 15/15 with 3 stocks. He isn't rated this high for his playmaking.

[BigGargamel]

People on this board are so silly. A guy can do 5 things well, but if he's weak in one area he's going to drop like a rock.

Bailey falling out of the lottery means there are 14 players better than him. Name those 14, and we can find more deficiencies with all of those players.

Bailey is a top five lock, and I don't care if he doesn't throw out a single assist all season.

[CptCrunch]

People in the know relating to statistical scouting all know. Assist to turnover is the bigger secondary predictor of NBA player basketball IQ and success.

Ace's ATOV is literally disqualifyingly bad. For him to succeed, he would need to become an exception.

Reading comprehension is also important for those who can read. Closer to dropping out of lotto than to pick X doesn't mean what you think it might mean.

[tontoz]

Durant had 46 assists and 99 turnovers in college. Nobody cares

[CptCrunch]

That's all I needed to know about your opinion. Durant was at 8.8 WS, and predates stat collection before BPM. With Durant's efficiencies, he would easily be at 10+ BPM.

Ace is at 0.7 WS and 1.4 BPM.

No NBA player below 1 BPM has evern had an average or better career in the NBA: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/13s3k6w/there_are_no_nba_prospects_who_i_can_find_who/

Ace is failing the statistical exam with several huge auto-fail red flags.

[tontoz]

That's all I needed to know about your opinion. Durant was at 8.8 WS, and predates stat collection before BPM. With Durant's efficiencies, he would easily be at 10+ BPM.

Ace is at 0.7 WS and 1.4 BPM.

No NBA player below 1 BPM has evern had an average or better career in the NBA: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/13s3k6w/there_are_no_nba_prospects_who_i_can_find_who/

Ace is failing the statistical exam with several huge auto-fail red flags.

Whatever red flags Bailey may or may not have, his assist to turnover ratio definitely isn't one of them. We're talking about 5-18, too small to be relevant even if the stat had some importance.

His lack of playmaking was well known before the season. It isn't like there is new info here.

On off numbers aren't very reliable in small sample sizes. I remember years ago the Nash Suns on/off numbers showed the bench players being much better than the starters early in the season. I was like whatever.

[The-Power]

Whatever red flags Bailey may or may not have, his assist to turnover ratio definitely isn't one of them. We're talking about 5-18, too small to be relevant even if the stat had some importance.

His lack of playmaking was well known before the season. It isn't like there is new info here.

On off numbers aren't very reliable in small sample sizes. I remember years ago the Nash Suns on/off numbers showed the bench players being much better than the starters early in the season. I was like whatever.

Weird how sample size suddenly matters when it's not about Cooper Flagg (and I do agree that we should generally be skeptical about small-sample inferences; just not selectively).

There is a big gap between playmaking limitations and essentially no playmaking ability at all. If Bailey continues to show zero ability to create for others then that will and should hurt his draft stock. It doesn't mean that he's dropping out of the lottery statements like ‘he's a top 5 lock even if he doesn't register a single assist going forward’ (as the other user made) are just asinine. He needs to show some ability in that regard or else his stock will rightfully drop.

[tontoz]

Whatever red flags Bailey may or may not have, his assist to turnover ratio definitely isn't one of them. We're talking about 5-18, too small to be relevant even if the stat had some importance.

His lack of playmaking was well known before the season. It isn't like there is new info here.

On off numbers aren't very reliable in small sample sizes. I remember years ago the Nash Suns on/off numbers showed the bench players being much better than the starters early in the season. I was like whatever.

Weird how sample size suddenly matters when it's not about Cooper Flagg (and I do agree that we should generally be skeptical about small-sample inferences; just not selectively).

There is a big gap between playmaking limitations and essentially no playmaking ability at all. If Bailey continues to show zero ability to create for others then that will and should hurt his draft stock. It doesn't mean that he's dropping out of the lottery statements like ‘he's a top 5 lock even if he doesn't register a single assist going forward’ (as the other user made) are just asinine. He needs to show some ability in that regard or else his stock will rightfully drop.

Cooper has taken roughly 80 shots that aren't at the rim, most of them open. He has had a lot of chances to hit shots. Obviously he could turn it around but there is no debating that is bad. Plus he has played 2 more games than Ace who had a hip injury to start the season.

Ace plays off the ball and his role is to score. How many opportunities has he really had to get assists? He doesnt have the supporting cast that Cooper has. Aside from Harper there isn't a lot of talent there. In order to get an assist your teammate has to hit the shot so by definition the sample size will be much smaller than when comparing to shot attempts. Ace has a lower turnover percentage than Cooper.

[EvanZ]

Whatever red flags Bailey may or may not have, his assist to turnover ratio definitely isn't one of them. We're talking about 5-18, too small to be relevant even if the stat had some importance.

His lack of playmaking was well known before the season. It isn't like there is new info here.

On off numbers aren't very reliable in small sample sizes. I remember years ago the Nash Suns on/off numbers showed the bench players being much better than the starters early in the season. I was like whatever.

Weird how sample size suddenly matters when it's not about Cooper Flagg (and I do agree that we should generally be skeptical about small-sample inferences; just not selectively).

There is a big gap between playmaking limitations and essentially no playmaking ability at all. If Bailey continues to show zero ability to create for others then that will and should hurt his draft stock. It doesn't mean that he's dropping out of the lottery statements like ‘he's a top 5 lock even if he doesn't register a single assist going forward’ (as the other user made) are just asinine. He needs to show some ability in that regard or else his stock will rightfully drop.

Cooper has taken roughly 80 shots that aren't at the rim, most of them open. He has had a lot of chances to hit shots. Obviously he could turn it around but there is no debating that is bad. Plus he has played 2 more games than Ace who had a hip injury to start the season.

Ace plays off the ball and his role is to score. How many opportunities has he really had to get assists? He doesnt have the supporting cast that Cooper has. Aside from Harper there isn't a lot of talent there. In order to get an assist your teammate has to hit the shot so by definition the sample size will be much smaller than when comparing to shot attempts. Ace has a lower turnover percentage than Cooper.

The thing is his ast:tov ratio is really really bad. Hopefully he can turn that around.

[JustBuzzin]

Weird how sample size suddenly matters when it's not about Cooper Flagg (and I do agree that we should generally be skeptical about small-sample inferences; just not selectively).

There is a big gap between playmaking limitations and essentially no playmaking ability at all. If Bailey continues to show zero ability to create for others then that will and should hurt his draft stock. It doesn't mean that he's dropping out of the lottery statements like ‘he's a top 5 lock even if he doesn't register a single assist going forward’ (as the other user made) are just asinine. He needs to show some ability in that regard or else his stock will rightfully drop.

Cooper has taken roughly 80 shots that aren't at the rim, most of them open. He has had a lot of chances to hit shots. Obviously he could turn it around but there is no debating that is bad. Plus he has played 2 more games than Ace who had a hip injury to start the season.

Ace plays off the ball and his role is to score. How many opportunities has he really had to get assists? He doesnt have the supporting cast that Cooper has. Aside from Harper there isn't a lot of talent there. In order to get an assist your teammate has to hit the shot so by definition the sample size will be much smaller than when comparing to shot attempts. Ace has a lower turnover percentage than Cooper.

The thing is his ast:tov ratio is really really bad. Hopefully he can turn that around.

The thing is his handle is not solid enough to become a legit playmaker. He already has issues creating separation off the dribble. I think he has to improve his handle for me to be sold on his talent.

[God Squad]

That's all I needed to know about your opinion. Durant was at 8.8 WS, and predates stat collection before BPM. With Durant's efficiencies, he would easily be at 10+ BPM.

Ace is at 0.7 WS and 1.4 BPM.

No NBA player below 1 BPM has evern had an average or better career in the NBA: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/13s3k6w/there_are_no_nba_prospects_who_i_can_find_who/

Ace is failing the statistical exam with several huge auto-fail red flags.

I'm a BPM guy myself and I agree. Yes, it's still early into the season, but Ace is entering red-flag territory IMO. He'll still be top 5 due to age/potential, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried.

[tontoz]

The thing is his handle is not solid enough to become a legit playmaker. He already has issues creating separation off the dribble. I think he has to improve his handle for me to be sold on his talent.

I think his handle is ok but he is just too upright. He just needs to get down a bit. I don't see him ever being in a playmaking role.

He doesn't really need separation to get his shot off. Bernard King didnt get separation either but nobody could block his shot. I am sure he will learn to get separation over time it isn't that tough.

The thing i worry about is that he seems more comfortable taking midrange shots off the dribble which aren't valuable shots. Catch and shoot 3s are much more valuable but he doesn't look as good on those.

[JustBuzzin]

The thing is his handle is not solid enough to become a legit playmaker. He already has issues creating separation off the dribble. I think he has to improve his handle for me to be sold on his talent.

I think his handle is ok but he is just too upright. He just needs to get down a bit. I don't see him ever being in a playmaking role.

He doesn't really need separation to get his shot off. Bernard King didnt get separation either but nobody could block his shot. I am sure he will learn to get separation over time it isn't that tough.

The thing i worry about is that he seems more comfortable taking midrange shots off the dribble which aren't valuable shots. Catch and shoot 3s are much more valuable but he doesn't look as good on those.

How do you like this pro comp a more athletic Rashard Lewis?

Again a player who didn't have the best handle, but he could always get his shot off. I'm not comparing him to the Orlando Lewis he was more of a 3pt guy. If you're old enough to remember Seattle Lewis that guy was a flat out scorer. Post game, mid range, 3pt range he just got buckets. That's the kind of player I see with Bailey.

[KembaWalker]

i dont get the ballhandling thing. people said/say Brandon Miller needs it too. was there a wave of 6'9 wings that were making plays with elite ballhandling that I missed? even young prime Bron had to crab dribble in the half court to get past dudes. who cares about ballhandling for these guys... good frame and adding strength is a billion times more important for this archetype. same with the assist to TO ratio

all i would care about with Ace if is if he can get stronger and shoot better

[tontoz]

How do you like this pro comp a more athletic Rashard Lewis?

Again a player who didn't have the best handle, but he could always get his shot off. I'm not comparing him to the Orlando Lewis he was more of a 3pt guy. If you're old enough to remember Seattle Lewis that guy was a flat out scorer. Post game, mid range, 3pt range he just got buckets. That's the kind of player I see with Bailey.

In the half court Shard could be a good comparison even though they really don't look similar. I would expect Ace to be better taking it to the rim and on the break.

I think he will be a better version of MPJ.

[EvanZ]

BPM is oddly low on Ace. My stats model and other models I've seen privately are higher on him than BPM. Usually all these metrics are highly correlated so I'm not sure what's going on with BPM. It must really hate his A:T ratio.

[HadAnEffectHere]

BPM is oddly low on Ace. My stats model and other models I've seen privately are higher on him than BPM. Usually all these metrics are highly correlated so I'm not sure what's going on with BPM. It must really hate his A:T ratio.

BPM highly values made threes and assists and hates turnovers, but it's not like he's going to be well liked by any all in one model.

He has a 52% TS% with nearly four times as many turnovers as assists. He's having a really bad season.

[tontoz]

I didn't watch the last game but i did watch his highlights. It is like he is starting to realize he can be a force inside, something he hasn't tried before.

Watching him last year he was really skinny. He is starting to fill out and he can take a bit of contact. He is such a quick jumper that he can get easy putbacks by hitting the boards.

In the last 3 games he had 32 rebounds. In the previous 3 games he only had 9.

[clyde21]

honestly when was the last time a strong 3/4 wing prospect had a positive A:TO at this age? Paul George had 20 more TOs than assists his FS season at Fresno St. More recently GG Jackson had 27 assists to 86 TOs, proceeded to post a 1:1 A:TO his rookie year. even Gordon Hayward, as a sophomore at Baylor, had 62 assists to 85 TOs. someone mentioned it earlier but Kevin Durant had 46 assists to 99 TOs as a freshman at Tx. Same deal with Andrew Wiggins.

if someone has an example of a wing prospect (i mean true wing prospect, not 6-6 combo guards like Shai or point-forwards like Scottie Barnes) of having a positive A:TO coming out as a FS i'm all ears. seems like people are talking about unicorns that don't exist.

like, if you don't like the Ace Bailey archetype fine, but it's baked into this archetype not to have a good A:TO ratio at this point in their developmental process.

[The-Power]

honestly when was the last time a strong 3/4 wing prospect had a positive A:TO at this age?

There's obviously levels to this. I don't think Bailey would catch much flack if he just barely produced more turnovers than assists. His ratio is horrifyingly low right now (which of course can and should change for the better over the course of the season – we'll see how much, though).

But even more than AST:TO ratio, I am looking at his incredibly low assist total. If he just turned it over more in the process of creating for others I would probably be less concerned than now. He barely clears 1 AST/100P. This suggest that at this point, he is virtually incapable of creating any kind of shots for others. Yet that is what he'll need to do to be a top player from his draft.

If he can't then what's the best case scenario – Michael Porter Jr.-ish? That would be a good outcome for a top 5 pick but it is quite underwhelming if that's your high-end outcome entering the league (meaning there's also a good chance it'll never be reached).