Ayton, Grant, and Simons for anything?

[Butter]

Good post Walton1.

The question is, what are teams offering. Is Chicago offering Lavine to get out of his horrendous deal?

I could see teams offering longer deals to get out of the contracts, easily.

[Wizenheimer]

Shams said it today, teams are inquiring about these players. Do I think this is coming from POR, maybe?

I don't think there is any "maybe" about it. Evan Sidery said the same thing and that "teams were offering a large amount of assets" That's just not credible, at all, (unless assets = worse contracts and 2nd round picks) and what it fits is the 'looks like a duck; walks like a duck' test. In this case the duck looks like a not-believable leak out of the Blazer front office

Grant may or may not have some decent value; Simons and Ayton don't, IMO. Those two guys just have far too many flaws in their games along with high salaries

I remember all the hopeful posts leading into last year's deadline about the trade value of Simons-Ayton-Grant. I think hopeful = unrealistic last year, and that is repeating this year.

[dckingsfan]

Shams said it today, teams are inquiring about these players. Do I think this is coming from POR, maybe?

I don't think there is any "maybe" about it. Evan Sidery said the same thing and that "teams were offering a large amount of assets" That's just not credible, at all, (unless assets = worse contracts and 2nd round picks) and what it fits is the 'looks like a duck; walks like a duck' test. In this case the duck looks like a not-believable leak out of the Blazer front office

Grant may or may not have some decent value; Simons and Ayton don't, IMO. Those two guys just have far too many flaws in their games along with high salaries

I remember all the hopeful posts leading into last year's deadline about the trade value of Simons-Ayton-Grant. I think hopeful = unrealistic last year, and that is repeating this year.

I think it very realistic that it repeats itself this year for the reasons you listed and also how much harder it is to make a trade this year.

[Wizenheimer]

Shams said it today, teams are inquiring about these players. Do I think this is coming from POR, maybe?

I don't think there is any "maybe" about it. Evan Sidery said the same thing and that "teams were offering a large amount of assets" That's just not credible, at all, (unless assets = worse contracts and 2nd round picks) and what it fits is the 'looks like a duck; walks like a duck' test. In this case the duck looks like a not-believable leak out of the Blazer front office

Grant may or may not have some decent value; Simons and Ayton don't, IMO. Those two guys just have far too many flaws in their games along with high salaries

I remember all the hopeful posts leading into last year's deadline about the trade value of Simons-Ayton-Grant. I think hopeful = unrealistic last year, and that is repeating this year.

I think it very realistic that it repeats itself this year for the reasons you listed and also how much harder it is to make a trade this year.

I don't know why it would be harder to make trades this year? The 2nd apron restrictions were in place last season too. Now, I can see that teams might have been making 2024 draft picks available last season when they aren't this season because of the strength of the 2025 draft

but the margins for salary matching have increased in the new CBA, making trades easier in terms of salary matching. Further, this season is the first season that teams can use MLE's (non-tax, tax, room) and BAE's like TPE's are used. For instance a team, providing they had their full-MLE available, could trade for Timelord or Thybulle without sending out a player. The full-MLE is 12.8M

[zzaj]

I don't think there is any "maybe" about it. Evan Sidery said the same thing and that "teams were offering a large amount of assets" That's just not credible, at all, (unless assets = worse contracts and 2nd round picks) and what it fits is the 'looks like a duck; walks like a duck' test. In this case the duck looks like a not-believable leak out of the Blazer front office

Grant may or may not have some decent value; Simons and Ayton don't, IMO. Those two guys just have far too many flaws in their games along with high salaries

I remember all the hopeful posts leading into last year's deadline about the trade value of Simons-Ayton-Grant. I think hopeful = unrealistic last year, and that is repeating this year.

I think it very realistic that it repeats itself this year for the reasons you listed and also how much harder it is to make a trade this year.

I don't know why it would be harder to make trades this year? The 2nd apron restrictions were in place last season too. Now, I can see that teams might have been making 2024 draft picks available last season when they aren't this season because of the strength of the 2025 draft

but the margins for salary matching have increased in the new CBA, making trades easier in terms of salary matching. Further, this season is the first season that teams can use MLE's (non-tax, tax, room) and BAE's like TPE's are used. For instance a team, providing they had their full-MLE available, could trade for Timelord or Thybulle without sending out a player. The full-MLE is 12.8M

I thought that it was set up that any team that trades for a player making even one dollar over the contract of the player they traded away automatically gets capped? I could be wrong about that.
I feel like it's the first apron rules that are making teams shy away, in fear of losing flexibility.

[dckingsfan]

I think it very realistic that it repeats itself this year for the reasons you listed and also how much harder it is to make a trade this year.

I don't know why it would be harder to make trades this year? The 2nd apron restrictions were in place last season too. Now, I can see that teams might have been making 2024 draft picks available last season when they aren't this season because of the strength of the 2025 draft

but the margins for salary matching have increased in the new CBA, making trades easier in terms of salary matching. Further, this season is the first season that teams can use MLE's (non-tax, tax, room) and BAE's like TPE's are used. For instance a team, providing they had their full-MLE available, could trade for Timelord or Thybulle without sending out a player. The full-MLE is 12.8M

I thought that it was set up that any team that trades for a player making even one dollar over the contract of the player they traded away automatically gets capped? I could be wrong about that.
I feel like it's the first apron rules that are making teams shy away, in fear of losing flexibility.

yeah, I didn't exactly give an explanation why

It seems there are less "bad contracts" that need to be jettisoned by good teams and less flexibility on a couple of teams that really should do a trade (Milwaukee & Denver) as examples.

Both your points are solid as well. And of course, I could be so very wrong and we see a flurry of trades at the trade deadline.

[Wizenheimer]

I thought that it was set up that any team that trades for a player making even one dollar over the contract of the player they traded away automatically gets capped? I could be wrong about that.
I feel like it's the first apron rules that are making teams shy away, in fear of losing flexibility.

I think you're talking about teams over the 1st apron. They have to take back less salary, but that's really not a difficult task. Last season 1st apron teams could take back 110% of salary. This season, capped at 100%. 22 NBA teams are below the 1st apron

now, the 2nd apron is a 3rd rail.

Blazers are about 10M below the 1st apron so their flexibility isn't really limited. At least not limited by the CBA. The meddling out of Seattle is another matter

by the way, I'm going to be pretty resistant to anything that looks like an excuse for Cronin to sit on his hands

[zzaj]

I thought that it was set up that any team that trades for a player making even one dollar over the contract of the player they traded away automatically gets capped? I could be wrong about that.
I feel like it's the first apron rules that are making teams shy away, in fear of losing flexibility.

I think you're talking about teams over the 1st apron. They have to take back less salary, but that's really not a difficult task. Last season 1st apron teams could take back 110% of salary. This season, capped at 100%. 22 NBA teams are below the 1st apron

now, the 2nd apron is a 3rd rail.

Blazers are about 10M below the 1st apron so their flexibility isn't really limited. At least not limited by the CBA. The meddling out of Seattle is another matter

by the way, I'm going to be pretty resistant to anything that looks like an excuse for Cronin to sit on his hands

Okay, thanks for clearing that up...

And yeah, the Blazers have to do something--this pseudo-tanking has gone on long enough. Cronin won't have the cajones though. I predict a small, roster margins trade, like a RWIII or Duop trade. I actually think Duop might be the leading candidate.

Simons isn't really going to be wanted for Cronin's the asking price, Ayton's contract and play style is going to be problematic for most potential partners (non-defense, mid-post player), and Grant's years of salary are a stumbling block. The eye to the needle is exceedingly small. Personally, I want all 3 off the team sooner rather than later.

[DusterBuster]

I thought that it was set up that any team that trades for a player making even one dollar over the contract of the player they traded away automatically gets capped? I could be wrong about that.
I feel like it's the first apron rules that are making teams shy away, in fear of losing flexibility.

I think you're talking about teams over the 1st apron. They have to take back less salary, but that's really not a difficult task. Last season 1st apron teams could take back 110% of salary. This season, capped at 100%. 22 NBA teams are below the 1st apron

now, the 2nd apron is a 3rd rail.

Blazers are about 10M below the 1st apron so their flexibility isn't really limited. At least not limited by the CBA. The meddling out of Seattle is another matter

by the way, I'm going to be pretty resistant to anything that looks like an excuse for Cronin to sit on his hands

Okay, thanks for clearing that up...

And yeah, the Blazers have to do something--this pseudo-tanking has gone on long enough. Cronin won't have the cajones though. I predict a small, roster margins trade, like a RWIII or Duop trade. I actually think Duop might be the leading candidate.

Simons isn't really going to be wanted for Cronin's the asking price, Ayton's contract and play style is going to be problematic for most potential partners (non-defense, mid-post player), and Grant's years of salary are a stumbling block. The eye to the needle is exceedingly small. Personally, I want all 3 off the team sooner rather than later.

I agree with all of this. Only quibble might be Grant, I have yet to see any report of "anonymous FO exec thinks Grant is a toxic contract" or anything like it. Closest I've saw was one report where it said "some GMs consider him to be a 'neutral asset'". Long way of saying I think the RealGM group overrates how negative teams view Grant's contract. All that said, I do agree however that just finding the deal / matching contacts is difficult, as is Cronin coming off his high asking price.

When he's just negotiating with other teams generally without any external pressure, he tends to have a pretty high asking price. When a player and/or agent has requested a trade, he will usually let them go for rock bottom prices to wherever they want to go (unless you try and strong-arm the team like Lillard did, but that was just as much about sending a message as it was getting the best deal).

[Walton1one]

Hypothetical:

Would you take back Nikola Topic & ATL 25’ 2nd back for RW3, instead of a 1st?

I think it would be something worth considering?

Let Scoot\Topic fight it out and then keep the victor?

I think I still would prefer a first round pick, but if the first is down the line 27’+ and there was a chance to get topic instead it might be worth considering?

[Walton1one]

Shams said it today, teams are inquiring about these players. Do I think this is coming from POR, maybe?

I don't think there is any "maybe" about it. Evan Sidery said the same thing and that "teams were offering a large amount of assets" That's just not credible, at all, (unless assets = worse contracts and 2nd round picks) and what it fits is the 'looks like a duck; walks like a duck' test. In this case the duck looks like a not-believable leak out of the Blazer front office

Grant may or may not have some decent value; Simons and Ayton don't, IMO. Those two guys just have far too many flaws in their games along with high salaries

I remember all the hopeful posts leading into last year's deadline about the trade value of Simons-Ayton-Grant. I think hopeful = unrealistic last year, and that is repeating this year.

I agree with you on this point, and it is the most important one, I remain unconvinced that Cronin has the desire/authority/ability to trade these guys. That is the most concerning issue if you are a POR fan, IMO

I disagree with you on this point, that players like Ant/Grant cannot get back something meaningful of value. I just don’t think that’s the case Hopefully we will find out one way or the other, and whatever they are traded for it will be a good thing because they’re gone, I just am not that pessimistic on their value. The lens as Portland fans is very large, I do not think the rest of the league views them under the same microscope that many of us do

[zzaj]

I think you're talking about teams over the 1st apron. They have to take back less salary, but that's really not a difficult task. Last season 1st apron teams could take back 110% of salary. This season, capped at 100%. 22 NBA teams are below the 1st apron

now, the 2nd apron is a 3rd rail.

Blazers are about 10M below the 1st apron so their flexibility isn't really limited. At least not limited by the CBA. The meddling out of Seattle is another matter

by the way, I'm going to be pretty resistant to anything that looks like an excuse for Cronin to sit on his hands

Okay, thanks for clearing that up...

And yeah, the Blazers have to do something--this pseudo-tanking has gone on long enough. Cronin won't have the cajones though. I predict a small, roster margins trade, like a RWIII or Duop trade. I actually think Duop might be the leading candidate.

Simons isn't really going to be wanted for Cronin's the asking price, Ayton's contract and play style is going to be problematic for most potential partners (non-defense, mid-post player), and Grant's years of salary are a stumbling block. The eye to the needle is exceedingly small. Personally, I want all 3 off the team sooner rather than later.

I agree with all of this. Only quibble might be Grant, I have yet to see any report of "anonymous FO exec thinks Grant is a toxic contract" or anything like it. Closest I've saw was one report where it said "some GMs consider him to be a 'neutral asset'". Long way of saying I think the RealGM group overrates how negative teams view Grant's contract. All that said, I do agree however that just finding the deal / matching contacts is difficult, as is Cronin coming off his high asking price.

When he's just negotiating with other teams generally without any external pressure, he tends to have a pretty high asking price. When a player and/or agent has requested a trade, he will usually let them go for rock bottom prices to wherever they want to go (unless you try and strong-arm the team like Lillard did, but that was just as much about sending a message as it was getting the best deal).

I wouldn't say Grant's contract is "toxic", and it may be "neutral" in the right circumstance...

Given how Grant plays, I just have a hard time believing a GM is going to see the rest of this year and the 3 years following at 34M per year as a net positive for their franchise, given the current CBA. Clearly only contending, or close to contending teams will want to add a player who will be 33 when his contract ends, and most of those teams are pushing it salary-wise. I feel like if grant had 1 or even 2 years left on his contract this would be a different discussion.

[BlazersBroncos]

Hypothetical:

Would you take back Nikola Topic & ATL 25’ 2nd back for RW3, instead of a 1st?

I think it would be something worth considering?

Let Scoot\Topic fight it out and then keep the victor?

I think I still would prefer a first round pick, but if the first is down the line 27’+ and there was a chance to get topic instead it might be worth considering?

Absolutely - but I dont think OKC would.

[Norm2953]

Topic is going to miss the season with a torn ACL.

Doubtful the The Thunder would do it unless they really felt they could win it all this season

[zzaj]

Hypothetical:

Would you take back Nikola Topic & ATL 25’ 2nd back for RW3, instead of a 1st?

I think it would be something worth considering?

Let Scoot\Topic fight it out and then keep the victor?

I think I still would prefer a first round pick, but if the first is down the line 27’+ and there was a chance to get topic instead it might be worth considering?

Absolutely - but I dont think OKC would.

Yeah, I 100% would do that as well. I know adding another supposed non-shooter to the team isn't ideal, but IIRC, my breakdown of Topic showed that his 3pt% mostly got tanked by stepback and sidestep attempts--he was pretty decent on pullups at the top of the key and as a C&S shooter.

I also doubt that OKC would move him unless it was in a no-brainer deal...not after investing half a year in his rehab.

[Walton1one]

Yeah, that could very much be the case, like I said, it was just hypothetical, but I do think OKC drafted him more as an asset that they could use in the right deal, as there really is no room for him to play on the current roster not with SGA & apparent plans to resign Caruso, amongst all the other combo like guards they have:
Wallace\Wiggins\Caruso\Mitchell\Dort

[BlazersBroncos]

I certainly think Topic may be move available now with the stellar play from SRP Ajay.

On another pessimistic note - I for sure would swap Scoot for Ajay.

[PDXKnight]

100% correct.
We need a deadly shooter to fit with team to space the floor though.

I dont care what trends say, common sense would indicate rebounding at the 4 is pretty important. At least 8 rebounds a game ideally around 10. Maybe deni can hit that 8 number who knows but that's something that would indicate to me whether or not he could be a 4

Agreed. Rebounding is very important.
Our current PF averages <3 per game.... so Deni would be a HUGE improvement

Lol you're not wrong

[zzaj]

Yeah, that could very much be the case, like I said, it was just hypothetical, but I do think OKC drafted him more as an asset that they could use in the right deal, as there really is no room for him to play on the current roster not with SGA & apparent plans to resign Caruso, amongst all the other combo like guards they have:
Wallace\Wiggins\Caruso\Mitchell\Dort

Yeah, at a certain point you'd think that OKC would HAVE to start making some decisions on paring down the roster and incoming players. Shoot, they're at a full 15 players and 2 two-way contracts, with 3 picks in the upcoming draft. Even if they ditch the two-ways, they have to make room somewhere or consolidate.

[Walton1one]

This cannot be true...

POR is showing interest in Kyle Kuzma

https://www.si.com/nba/trailblazers/news/blazers-news-suns-kevin-durant-could-return-at-just-the-wrong-time-for-portland-01jesg3g9y3c

According to NBA insider Brett Siegel of Clutch Points, the Trail Blazers are among a few teams that have shown interest in trading for star forward Kyle Kuzma of the Washington Wizards. Portland has been looking for some extra scoring help and Kuzma could fit the bill.