How many titles will OKC win until 2030?

[Lo Wang]

The assertion that they are among the best teams in league history is ridiculous, season is only a quarter of the way through and I can probably list at least 5 teams in the last 10 years alone that I would take in a playoff series over a healthy OKC team of this year.

As for the 2030 timeline, I'm giving them the next 3 years. Chet and J-Dub are due for extensions in 2 years, and then SGA's contract expires in 2027. I do believe there is a good chance SGA leaves that summer to go home which would effectively end their contention status, unless of course Presti finds another big talent or 2 in the next couple drafts then that becomes interesting.

I'm sorry but if you can't assess how good this team is after 25 games, then that's pretty bad.

I can make a predictive result after 10 games barring injuries.

This whole wait and see approach is nothing more than waiting on stats to arrive at a definite conclusion.

Just watch the games bro. That's every advance metric you need. You don't need a number of deflections to see a player is good defensively.

This over reliance on stats is truly bizarre to me.

Stats can be manipulated, thus using it as a premise is fallacious in nature.

[Drakeem]

1 is the most likely outside of 0.I just can't see this team staying together with all the salaries involved.

[bstein14]

Biggest question mark is will the owner pay to keep everyone, or will their GM have to dump proven guys for younger cheap players on rookie contracts.

You could have said the same thing about a young KD, Westbrook, Harden, etc... but their ownership didn't want to pay everyone.

Williams and Chet are for sure max money players or another team will happily max them as soon as they are RFAs.

[nomansland]

Serious question: how long before they have to let guys go to avoid going into the 2nd apron? Because that's going to happen sooner or later.

[Blame Rasho]

50 percent say either 1 or 2 titles…

Seems reasonable…

Just remember a core of KD,Westbrook, and Harden along with a number of great role players got 0.

I will be interested in how the new CBA hamstrings so many teams with this 2nd apron.

They do have a good amount of assets that will help them out so I am excited for what the future holds for them.

[RB34]

You guys aren't even factoring the amount of assets this team have.

If they do not win 1, they can get another star.

The possibility of a ring is very high. The only argument against this is the wait and see approach, which isn't really an argument.

It doesn’t work like that anymore.

[audiosway]

That is, 6 seasons including this one.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are doing great and have been improving steadily for years now. First in the West (20-5) and about to play the Cup final.

Shai's fantastic and is only 26. J-Dub is 23. Chet's 22. They're all only getting better. Their defense is top notch. They have a deep and balanced team. I don't like Daigneault, but he seems pretty pretty good.

Presti has mastered directing a team. They have a gazilion picks until 2030 incoming, including at least 6 FRP until 2028!
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

They don't have bad money afaic, and they could get a discount with Chet's extension due to health. Presti has many options to keep improving. They're top contenders as is, and that should only solidify with every passing year with Boston likely to part with key cogs and Giannis and Joker aging out.

I know rules and randomness benefit the distribution of championships, but really, their foundation is tremendously solid and what other team could consistently compete? I think Boston's a favourite over OKC this year but the Thunder could well win half of the next 6 titles if Chet can play. Presti has done that good of a job and the team's responding and hungry.

What do you think?

They will have a hard time keeping the team together as they get into the end of rookie deals. Presti is great at building teams. The owner just doesn't want to pay to keep him. Can't blame him being in a small market like that.

Chet is one that I just don't think he will stay healthy. Shai is a great young player. They really hit it with him. But, realistically, he has to be near perfect for them to win. They have some good young pieces and defenders. Last month they lost to Dallas (Without Luka) and Shai had 36 points in that one. That's a heavy load on a player in the regular season. That's the reason I said that they can't go to another gear in the playoffs. They aren't balanced enough on offense.

Essentially, you are planning on other players to grow enough to take some load off of Shai. That's not something you can really rely on. That's the reason Presti couldn't win with the last group OKC had. He is somewhat limited in what he can do due to the owner not wanting to spend. At some point for them to advance they will need to make a trade similar to what Dallas did to get Ky, PJ, and Gafford.

Like I said, you just can't bank on players internal growth getting them where they need to go. Shai is hitting his prime now and the others are a few years behind him. Dallas made the right moves to get a team around Luka before he really hits his prime.

[baldur]

So this salary cap or new cba, second apron doesn't make sense if you draft well, if you develop players well, even if you sign up useful role players, you can't keep them together anyway for long years. So nba is saying be a champion for one year and that is it. It is somebody else's turn next year.

It is a pity for a team like okc which is managed so perfectly. It's almost being good is being punished.

[slick_watts]

Biggest question mark is will the owner pay to keep everyone, or will their GM have to dump proven guys for younger cheap players on rookie contracts.

You could have said the same thing about a young KD, Westbrook, Harden, etc... but their ownership didn't want to pay everyone.

Williams and Chet are for sure max money players or another team will happily max them as soon as they are RFAs.

okc had among the highest payrolls in the nba for multiple seasons in the mid-late 2010's. james harden is the only time sam presti didn't retain one of his players that it could be alleged he wanted to keep, for salary reasons. although that is mostly conjecture and the thunder have never cast anyone else away for this reason. it could be that sam presti just didn't think harden was worth the contract he wanted. thunder ownership has otherwise never been involved in a free agency / compensation decision that we know about so i doubt that they were the reason for harden not sticking around.

[dhsilv2]

They could get a few but 0 or 1 is the only logical choice here.

[The Servant]

I went 0 or 1. Love the team, we will see how long Presti and ownership can keep it all together. Really hope for some luck along the way and get a good run similar to how Dallas, Raps, Bucks and Nuggets got theirs. It would just be nice for the team to get one to join the half the league that has titles.

If they were in the Eastern Conference I would put more than 1. The Leastern Conference is so easy to get to the Finals in now that LBJ is past his prime and in the West.

[Patches Perry]

Please don't do this to us!

I was going to vote at least 10-11 but no such option was available. So I didn't vote.

[Lo Wang]

Biggest question mark is will the owner pay to keep everyone, or will their GM have to dump proven guys for younger cheap players on rookie contracts.

You could have said the same thing about a young KD, Westbrook, Harden, etc... but their ownership didn't want to pay everyone.

Williams and Chet are for sure max money players or another team will happily max them as soon as they are RFAs.

In OKC's defense, Harden was a role player. They didn't want to give him max for coming off the bench. Do you really blame them?

It was a hard choice between Ibaka and Harden. At that time, nobody knew Harden would be this good. They chose Ibaka for his size, which made sense because they already signed West and KD.

Harden played hardball.

Presti said no thanks. The rest is history. This time is different based on a few factors:

1. There is a clear big 3. Nobody on the bench is worth a max. Maybe Ajay or Nikola Topic in 3 years, but Isaiah Joe isn't going to ask for Harden money.

2. The core big 3 are SGA, JDub, and Chet. Everybody else's contracts need to work around their's.

3. Barking. Lots of people think this is lame, but I'm willing to bet, we might have another historical moment here: I wouldn't be surprise if players sign less just to be on this team and win a championship.

Thunder is getting 6+.

You guys can bookmark this thread and throw shade at me for 10 years.

As a professional lawyer using the most accurate scientific methodology (watching full games and studying them frame by frame), I stand by my statement.

The people voting 0 have absolutely no clue what this Thunder team is capable of. Their only position is to wait and see, which isn't really a position.

Think about it.

If I asked you if it's going to rain tomorrow, and you tell me wait and see, then I'll think that's kind of useless to ask. Now if you were to say you think it's going to rain, and here are the facts to support this opinion (looking up weather channels, analyzing the weather, and using past evidence of last year's weather), you can arrive at a pretty solid prediction.

There should be no reason anybody says 0 if they really know what they are talking about.

[Lo Wang]

They could get a few but 0 or 1 is the only logical choice here.

Those are lazy choices.

Why?

Predictive measures for stacked teams are accurate.

Kobe/Shaq = 5+
Lebron/Wade = 5+
KD/West/Harden = 1+

You're telling me these predictions are wrong if the teams are intact and healthy?

All 3 could easily accomplish those goals.

It's possible to predict if you do your homework.

This whole wait and see approach is a wash. This is a speculative thread, so why are yall acting like you have to be 100% correct?

[Edrees]

My guess is one. Maybe this year, but if not, they'll win 1 of the next 2 years.

[dhsilv2]

They could get a few but 0 or 1 is the only logical choice here.

Those are lazy choices.

Why?

Predictive measures for stacked teams are accurate.

Kobe/Shaq = 5+
Lebron/Wade = 5+
KD/West/Harden = 1+

You're telling me these predictions are wrong if the teams are intact and healthy?

All 3 could easily accomplish those goals.

It's possible to predict if you do your homework.

This whole wait and see approach is a wash. This is a speculative thread, so why are yall acting like you have to be 100% correct?

None of those made up numbers happened. 0-1 is the only reasonable guess here. And there's no reason to discuss intact and healthy as there's near 0% chance of that either.

[Lo Wang]

To the person trying to correct my grammar .. please this is childish. Stick to the discussion. I write the way I think. I am grammatically incorrect for a reason.

I am a human being. I will talk like a human being along with having grammatical errors.

P.S. Thunder can be both singular or plural depending on the context: are they 1 team or a group of guys?

[Lo Wang]

They could get a few but 0 or 1 is the only logical choice here.

Those are lazy choices.

Why?

Predictive measures for stacked teams are accurate.

Kobe/Shaq = 5+
Lebron/Wade = 5+
KD/West/Harden = 1+

You're telling me these predictions are wrong if the teams are intact and healthy?

All 3 could easily accomplish those goals.

It's possible to predict if you do your homework.

This whole wait and see approach is a wash. This is a speculative thread, so why are yall acting like you have to be 100% correct?

None of those made up numbers happened. 0-1 is the only reasonable guess here. And there's no reason to discuss intact and healthy as there's near 0% chance of that either.

Those aren't made up; those were predictions at the time.

Heck, if I said Kobe/Shaq will get 8 rings, I wouldn't be wrong. Prime and healthy Shaq/Kobe for 15 years? 8 is a low number.

Predictions can be accurate. Your insistence on the wait and see approach is really no position.

Anybody can say wait and see.

The person with the correct prediction is the smartest 1 in the room.

We call this gambling. There is a science behind it; we're all gamblers when we make predictions. Sure it's impossible to predict the future, but the predictions can be more reliable based on the research.

[bluejerseyjinx]

We tend to overrate these things. We thought Shaq and Penny would win a bunch of titles, that Shaq and Kobe would win 5+ together, that Durant/Harden/Westbrook would win multiple together, that Lebron and Wade would win 5+ together, that the Bucks would repeat, that the Nuggets would repeat, ect.

The criteria is very simple: if healthy and the team stays intact.

None of those teams stayed intact. Predictions can be accurate if the correct metrics are looked at. Shaq/Kobe and Wade/Lebron could of easily gotten 5+ if they stayed together.

This Thunder squad is as good as those teams.

1. A historic defense only comparable to Bill Russell's Celtics.

2. A historic net rating (12) only comparable to the 72-10 Bulls (12.3).

3. They are the youngest team in the league. Half of the guys aren't even in their primes yet. If they are as dominant as Jordan's Bulls this year, how much better are they going to be in their primes?

Voting 0 is just being lazy. I understand the wait and see approach, but this is a speculative thread. We're not dealing with matter of fact issues.

I've been watching basketball for close to 30 years and this is the best team I have ever seen. The only other team just as good is Jordan's Bulls; ok maybe Lebron's Heat, but even then, those teams didn't play with the same intensity.

This team is going to win at least 1. SGA still has 10 years of prime basketball, so I'm going to say 6+, which isn't even an option.

P.S. I've watched every game and I'm fully confident in that statement. Watch the games guys (not highlights). This team is special.

Your comparing a team that hasn't done squat yet to a legendary team that won 8 straight NBA titles?

[Lo Wang]

Your comparing a team that hasn't done squat yet to a legendary team that won 8 straight NBA titles?

Nice try bro.

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