the morning after

[vvoland]

tough loss last night to cap off a 2-8 run.

I do feel much better this morning about how this team is looking. Last night notwithstanding, this is an elite defense. With Wigs looking healthy and JK turning the shooting corner (15% from 3 in oct, 33% in Nov, 40% in Dec) this defense has real room to grow, especially with schroeder coming in. Dray's shooting seems to be holding and Steph is ... mostly Steph.

2-8 is a really tough stretch, especially in the loaded west. Their struggles are constant - late game offense seems to be the main culprit. Considering how much time wigs missed, how podz and JK has shot, and buddy's stroke going hot/cold, the fact that the offense has struggled isn't shocking. I'm curious what Schroeder can do on that end before looking to make more moves.

If we re-learn how to win games where we hold a decent lead, we can be a title challenger. I'm hopeful another lead ball handler can make a real difference.

[Onus]

While I think Schroeder will help the non Steph minutes. I'm not sure how much he'll actually help in the clutch. I still think we need something else if Kerr is reluctant to close with Buddy. I have a feeling Kerr will have Schroeder close in place of Buddy or Waters instead of with. And while Schroeder can shoot he's not a real spacer. Maybe it can work if they run Schroeder / JK pick and rolls?

[vvoland]

While I think Schroeder will help the non Steph minutes. I'm not sure how much he'll actually help in the clutch. I still think we need something else if Kerr is reluctant to close with Buddy. I have a feeling Kerr will have Schroeder close in place of Buddy or Waters instead of with. And while Schroeder can shoot he's not a real spacer. Maybe it can work if they run Schroeder / JK pick and rolls?

I'm surprised they've gone away from the motion offense late in games but after the Hou loss (i think?) when Steph said something like "we need to simplify the offense late in games." it sounded like a done deal. IF so, schroeder should really help with that. We've been pretty bad as a PnR offense this season and, according to kerr, the worst overall and in the PnR the last 10 games. Now, we were missing melton for all of them, wigs for most of them, and dray and steph were in and out. Those are all mitigating factors. We also fumbled 4 of those losses and could easily be sitting at 16/9 or 18/7 but are 14/11 instead. Sounds a lot like the **** I was saying last year.

That said, the offense looks putrid in the last half of the 4th and it's often the vets with the bad passes (looking at you dray!) or bad shot selection (never thought I'd say this, but Steph's hero-ball antics may have cost us 3 games this season, already). Playing a traditional PnR offense under these prisonball rules is tough for steph and this is where schroeder should really help. I'm also hopeful having schroeder do the driving, vs wigs or jk, will open up secondary driving/cutting lanes for our wings/bigs while also giving the shooters space. At the moment, when our wings drive, the opposing big can rotate while the guards can stay on the shooters resulting in players like gp2, loon, slomo, podz, jk, wigs, dray getting those open looks. Dray and wigs have been knocking them down, mostly. JK's shot seems to be coming around (except at the line). Podz and gp2 are having career worsts shooting stretches and steph/buddy/waters have a hard time finding space.

It's crazy to think a dennis schroeder level player can help in all of those areas but the domino effect is real and having a reliable ball handler, great FT shooter, AND a guy that can knock down the open 3 is very important for this squad. He's someone that can help curry on offense, help dray as a real POA on defense, help JK with lobs and floor-setting, help Podz with role and responsibilities.. all while maintaining our depth. I'm sure I'm jinxing this whole move with every word I write but I felt this way before the trade so maybe I'm just delusional. We'll have 6 weeks to see this as it sounds like dunleavy wants to see this lineup play before chasing the Butlers of the world (per Slater on the athletic's podcast from this morning)

[tal57]

I am concerned about the starters falling into the hole most of the games. To that effect I was all in on Hield moving into starting lineup to boost starting unit offense, but not if JK is starting as well. Which leaves only Wiggins as the D guy. Any good pair of opposing guards will destroy Curry/Hield combo on the defensive end unless Hield is hot as hell as he was at the beginning of the season and he and Curry will at least match the other opposing guards. I understand Irving and Luca are exceptional offensive talent, but I think they will be a bad defensive matchup for many opposing teams. I would put in GP2 to start the game with Curry if I am keeping JK for offense to start and see how it goes for the first 6 min of the game. Then bring in Shroder with Hield, Green, Podz/Moody, TJD/SloMo off the bench. My finishing lineup will obviously be Green, JK, Wiggins, Curry, Shroder. Maybe consider Hield if he is on fire all game.

[Onus]

I'm surprised they've gone away from the motion offense late in games but after the Hou loss (i think?) when Steph said something like "we need to simplify the offense late in games." it sounded like a done deal. IF so, schroeder should really help with that. We've been pretty bad as a PnR offense this season and, according to kerr, the worst overall and in the PnR the last 10 games. Now, we were missing melton for all of them, wigs for most of them, and dray and steph were in and out. Those are all mitigating factors. We also fumbled 4 of those losses and could easily be sitting at 16/9 or 18/7 but are 14/11 instead. Sounds a lot like the **** I was saying last year.

Clutch scoring we've never solely relied on motion offense. In the NBA it's almost always pick and roll or isolation. It's because you want your best players touching the ball and getting a shot up while mitigating turnovers.

That said, the offense looks putrid in the last half of the 4th and it's often the vets with the bad passes (looking at you dray!) or bad shot selection (never thought I'd say this, but Steph's hero-ball antics may have cost us 3 games this season, already). Playing a traditional PnR offense under these prisonball rules is tough for steph and this is where schroeder should really help. I'm also hopeful having schroeder do the driving, vs wigs or jk, will open up secondary driving/cutting lanes for our wings/bigs while also giving the shooters space. At the moment, when our wings drive, the opposing big can rotate while the guards can stay on the shooters resulting in players like gp2, loon, slomo, podz, jk, wigs, dray getting those open looks. Dray and wigs have been knocking them down, mostly. JK's shot seems to be coming around (except at the line). Podz and gp2 are having career worsts shooting stretches and steph/buddy/waters have a hard time finding space.

Steph took 1 bad shot in the clutch in this game. The air ball against PJ, after Dray just threw the ball over JK's head for the lob. He also missed another somewhat open shot which basically sealed the game. This game was going to be hard as hell to come back from considering we're experimenting throughout the game and the Mavs were motivated and weren't missing anything.

The issue is that we play 2 non shooters that teams don't really have to guard. While Dray is having a career year teams don't guard him at the 3. They give him token pressure. They don't have to guard JK at the 3. He's not going to shoot a 3 in the clutch. So there's always 2 players that are just roaming and mucking everything up in the paint at all times during the closing stretch. We'll see if DS can alleviate that by being the main ball handler and moving Steph off the ball. Maybe they run DS and JK pick and roll to somewhat give them more spacing to work, but someone is going to roam off of Dray so we'll need to make sure DS can find Steph or Steph can run a side pick and roll after the initial action. We'll see how it works. It should hopefully get some easier shots.

It's crazy to think a dennis schroeder level player can help in all of those areas but the domino effect is real and having a reliable ball handler, great FT shooter, AND a guy that can knock down the open 3 is very important for this squad. He's someone that can help curry on offense, help dray as a real POA on defense, help JK with lobs and floor-setting, help Podz with role and responsibilities.. all while maintaining our depth. I'm sure I'm jinxing this whole move with every word I write but I felt this way before the trade so maybe I'm just delusional. We'll have 6 weeks to see this as it sounds like dunleavy wants to see this lineup play before chasing the Butlers of the world (per Slater on the athletic's podcast from this morning)

Schroeder should help. I just think for Schroeder to continue to play his best he needs a more spread out court, which he won't get here when we constantly play 2 non shooters on the court at all times.

[vvoland]

we may have to stop calling Dray a non-shooter. Through the last two seasons, he's shooting at 40% and is staying within himself only taking wide open spot up 3s. People are starting to close to him quicker and with more urgency.

Not saying he's a 'shooter' but he's no longer a 'non-shooter'... what's the middle ground ? a 'semi-shooter'?

[Onus]

we may have to stop calling Dray a non-shooter. Through the last two seasons, he's shooting at 40% and is staying within himself only taking wide open spot up 3s. People are starting to close to him quicker and with more urgency.

Not saying he's a 'shooter' but he's no longer a 'non-shooter'... what's the middle ground ? a 'semi-shooter'?

Let the other teams know. They still aren't guarding him. See how much space he gets.

[TB]

More on the clutch topic:

Steph, Dray, Wiggins have all been inefficient in clutch time. And Dray/Wiggins are turning it over nonstop in those minutes. For example, Steph is averaging 16 3 point attempts per 36 in clutch time this year, but making only 25%... he's essentially shooting us out of games so far. And when he isn't getting a shot off, Dray or Wiggins are turning it over lol.

Podz, Buddy, Loon, Kuminga have all been solid in clutch minutes. Rest of the team pretty awful. But I think part of it is we aren't putting the best players for Steph out there with him.

[vvoland]

we may have to stop calling Dray a non-shooter. Through the last two seasons, he's shooting at 40% and is staying within himself only taking wide open spot up 3s. People are starting to close to him quicker and with more urgency.

Not saying he's a 'shooter' but he's no longer a 'non-shooter'... what's the middle ground ? a 'semi-shooter'?

Let the other teams know. They still aren't guarding him. See how much space he gets.

I wonder if CDM has the tracking data but it 'feels' like teams are closing out to him quicker than they used to. They're still rotating off Dray but are recovering to him with enough desperation that he can now attack those close outs (sometimes). I wonder if the tracking data is showing that or if my mind is playing tricks on me.

[Onus]

we may have to stop calling Dray a non-shooter. Through the last two seasons, he's shooting at 40% and is staying within himself only taking wide open spot up 3s. People are starting to close to him quicker and with more urgency.

Not saying he's a 'shooter' but he's no longer a 'non-shooter'... what's the middle ground ? a 'semi-shooter'?

Let the other teams know. They still aren't guarding him. See how much space he gets.

I wonder if CDM has the tracking data but it 'feels' like teams are closing out to him quicker than they used to. They're still rotating off Dray but are recovering to him with enough desperation that he can now attack those close outs (sometimes). I wonder if the tracking data is showing that or if my mind is playing tricks on me.

I don't recall him attacking close out. I don't see desperation on players closing out to him. Someone's mind is playing tricks on them. Could be me.

I do see him making more contested 3s though. So teams are actually closing out which is a step up from not closing out at all.

[vvoland]

Let the other teams know. They still aren't guarding him. See how much space he gets.

I wonder if CDM has the tracking data but it 'feels' like teams are closing out to him quicker than they used to. They're still rotating off Dray but are recovering to him with enough desperation that he can now attack those close outs (sometimes). I wonder if the tracking data is showing that or if my mind is playing tricks on me.

I don't recall him attacking close out. I don't see desperation on players closing out to him. Someone's mind is playing tricks on them. Could be me.

I do see him making more contested 3s though. So teams are actually closing out which is a step up from not closing out at all.

I think he had one from the corner the other night but I'm NOT saying he's actually doing it.

I'm saying now that teams are actually closing out to dray as opposed to 10 ft in front of dray, he CAN attack those closeouts.

[CDM_Stats]

we may have to stop calling Dray a non-shooter. Through the last two seasons, he's shooting at 40% and is staying within himself only taking wide open spot up 3s. People are starting to close to him quicker and with more urgency.

Not saying he's a 'shooter' but he's no longer a 'non-shooter'... what's the middle ground ? a 'semi-shooter'?

Let the other teams know. They still aren't guarding him. See how much space he gets.

I wonder if CDM has the tracking data but it 'feels' like teams are closing out to him quicker than they used to. They're still rotating off Dray but are recovering to him with enough desperation that he can now attack those close outs (sometimes). I wonder if the tracking data is showing that or if my mind is playing tricks on me.

nba.com tracking numbers should do well enough.. I cant give out the advanced numbers because they are specialized, not generic SS numbers

I can say though that closeouts, from the shooter's standpoint, are a spectrum. On one end of the table you have Kevon Looney shooting a 3 - no defender is challenging that, its encouraged. On the other side you have Steph Curry, where teams sell out to prevent that from happening. I have 4 very loosely defined categories that I personally use:

- I dare you (Kevon Looney, TJD, GP2)
- Not a free run, but not a concern (Draymond, JK, SloMo)
- Not selling out but not making it easy (Wiggins, Podz, Moody, Waters)
- Full sell out (Curry, Hield)

Dray might make it to that 2nd tier at some point, but right now he's definitely in the 3rd tier with JK/SloMo. Its very rare that players become excellent shooters late in their career so I'd wager against Dray ever moving up to that tier... but again, this is 100% subjective. Tiers are just to categorize, not necessarily track an improved offensive threat. Can at least say that Dray is getting more attention on the perimeter than before, but not enough that its going to make much of a difference

[Onus]

Let the other teams know. They still aren't guarding him. See how much space he gets.

I wonder if CDM has the tracking data but it 'feels' like teams are closing out to him quicker than they used to. They're still rotating off Dray but are recovering to him with enough desperation that he can now attack those close outs (sometimes). I wonder if the tracking data is showing that or if my mind is playing tricks on me.

nba.com tracking numbers should do well enough.. I cant give out the advanced numbers because they are specialized, not generic SS numbers

I can say though that closeouts, from the shooter's standpoint, are a spectrum. On one end of the table you have Kevon Looney shooting a 3 - no defender is challenging that, its encouraged. On the other side you have Steph Curry, where teams sell out to prevent that from happening. I have 4 very loosely defined categories that I personally use:

- I dare you (Kevon Looney, TJD, GP2)
- Not a free run, but not a concern (Draymond, JK, SloMo)
- Not selling out but not making it easy (Wiggins, Podz, Moody, Waters)
- Full sell out (Curry, Hield)

Dray might make it to that 2nd tier at some point, but right now he's definitely in the 3rd tier with JK/SloMo. Its very rare that players become excellent shooters late in their career so I'd wager against Dray ever moving up to that tier... but again, this is 100% subjective. Tiers are just to categorize, not necessarily track an improved offensive threat. Can at least say that Dray is getting more attention on the perimeter than before, but not enough that its going to make much of a difference

Dray at one point was in that 4th tier so his move up seems very different visually but it's still not threatening anyone or pulling defenders away.

I'm actually shocked that Podz in that 2nd tier.

[Chupchup]

Zion might be available to be traded for. Yes Zion himself might not be available to play lol but man if we're not sure on Kuminga then a trade now for Zion might be a good gamble.

[vvoland]

Let the other teams know. They still aren't guarding him. See how much space he gets.

I wonder if CDM has the tracking data but it 'feels' like teams are closing out to him quicker than they used to. They're still rotating off Dray but are recovering to him with enough desperation that he can now attack those close outs (sometimes). I wonder if the tracking data is showing that or if my mind is playing tricks on me.

nba.com tracking numbers should do well enough.. I cant give out the advanced numbers because they are specialized, not generic SS numbers

I can say though that closeouts, from the shooter's standpoint, are a spectrum. On one end of the table you have Kevon Looney shooting a 3 - no defender is challenging that, its encouraged. On the other side you have Steph Curry, where teams sell out to prevent that from happening. I have 4 very loosely defined categories that I personally use:

- I dare you (Kevon Looney, TJD, GP2)
- Not a free run, but not a concern (Draymond, JK, SloMo)
- Not selling out but not making it easy (Wiggins, Podz, Moody, Waters)
- Full sell out (Curry, Hield)

Dray might make it to that 2nd tier at some point, but right now he's definitely in the 3rd tier with JK/SloMo. Its very rare that players become excellent shooters late in their career so I'd wager against Dray ever moving up to that tier... but again, this is 100% subjective. Tiers are just to categorize, not necessarily track an improved offensive threat. Can at least say that Dray is getting more attention on the perimeter than before, but not enough that its going to make much of a difference

Those are pretty handy and universally understandable tiers. It certainly seems like defenders have started (maybe last 10 games?) to close out to dray harder than they do to JK, SloMo, and Podz but if the tracking says different, I'll defer. No idea why anyone would close to podz on anything other than a late clock situation but defenders don't always do the optimal thing. There was also the 1st half/2nd half 3pt dropoff for Dray and I wonder if there's a similar trend in how defenses treated him. Either by closing out harder and hence the drop in % or not closing out much because they know his legs are gone and he'll miss anyway. Not asking you to look that up, just shooting the ****, so to speak.

I do wonder how long it takes for a player to change his rep and how many ~40% shooters stay in that 3rd tier vs getting to tier 2, at least. Wigs and moody, for instance, haven't shot as well as dray has the last season and a quarter. Sure, it's different type of 3s but when it's a C&S and his feet are set? If I'm the defense, I'm closing out on a 40% shooter even if his name is Draymond Green. How long did it take Brook Lopez, for instance, to get people to treat him like a real shooter out there?

[vvoland]

I wonder if CDM has the tracking data but it 'feels' like teams are closing out to him quicker than they used to. They're still rotating off Dray but are recovering to him with enough desperation that he can now attack those close outs (sometimes). I wonder if the tracking data is showing that or if my mind is playing tricks on me.

nba.com tracking numbers should do well enough.. I cant give out the advanced numbers because they are specialized, not generic SS numbers

I can say though that closeouts, from the shooter's standpoint, are a spectrum. On one end of the table you have Kevon Looney shooting a 3 - no defender is challenging that, its encouraged. On the other side you have Steph Curry, where teams sell out to prevent that from happening. I have 4 very loosely defined categories that I personally use:

- I dare you (Kevon Looney, TJD, GP2)
- Not a free run, but not a concern (Draymond, JK, SloMo)
- Not selling out but not making it easy (Wiggins, Podz, Moody, Waters)
- Full sell out (Curry, Hield)

Dray might make it to that 2nd tier at some point, but right now he's definitely in the 3rd tier with JK/SloMo. Its very rare that players become excellent shooters late in their career so I'd wager against Dray ever moving up to that tier... but again, this is 100% subjective. Tiers are just to categorize, not necessarily track an improved offensive threat. Can at least say that Dray is getting more attention on the perimeter than before, but not enough that its going to make much of a difference

Dray at one point was in that 4th tier so his move up seems very different visually but it's still not threatening anyone or pulling defenders away.

I'm actually shocked that Podz in that 2nd tier.

white privilege and all that (kidding.. mostly).

[KevinMcreynolds]

We still stink, I would rather blow it up

[East Bay Sports]

we may have to stop calling Dray a non-shooter. Through the last two seasons, he's shooting at 40% and is staying within himself only taking wide open spot up 3s. People are starting to close to him quicker and with more urgency.

Not saying he's a 'shooter' but he's no longer a 'non-shooter'... what's the middle ground ? a 'semi-shooter'?

Treymond is knockdown. Lethal shooter.