2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[jalengreen]

Some real defense on display tonight

Seriously, really fun game. You can tell how much these guys actually care about the tournament. Obviously they're both just great defensive teams in general, but the level of effort has seemed even higher than usual. I like the refs mostly letting them play as well (though obviously some bad no calls like that Steph 3 lol)

If only they had kept that up 3 more seconds

Little too close to the sun from Kuminga

[Doctor MJ]

The current, obviously bad Denver Nuggets are playing at 2019 Bucks level when Jokic is on the court. In general they have been a +11 team with Jokic on since 2023.

They dominate with this guy. They're not playing mediocre basketball with him out there. So, you're seeing the Bucks type run. You're just seeing 2025 Westbrook and DeAndre Jordan with a couple raw late 1st round draft picks being forced into big minutes, destroy these leads the Jokic lineups are creating.

RS Jamal Murray is essentially a role player or good starting guard. He'd be a spark plug off the bench on the 2015 Warriors.

Current Jamal Murray is worse than that. He has had multiple explosive PS runs but the Nuggets by way of Murray's RS mediocrity, compared to say 2016 Draymond, has made Denver a team built for the playoffs. But again, they still dominate with Nikola Jokic. The ceiling is being raised. The floor is Julian Strawther's defensive awarenes.

No, that's not what I'm getting at. This is basically the equivalent of saying the 2016 Warriors were actually an 80-win pace team (+18.0 net-rating on court), and a 30-win team without Steph (-4.6 net off). With Jokic, people are essentially just taking the lineup data entirely at face value. I'm talking about the dangers of extrapolating that data across an entire 82-game season where that player is theoretically playing every minute. Especially so for a guy who traditionally plays more with the starters than most superstars.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jokicni01/lineups/2025

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilgesh01/lineups/2025

I mean, I'm not convinced that there's a singular player in NBA history, or even a theoretical perfect player that can account for basically a 50-60 game swing in expected win-loss. And then conspicuously, what accounts for the off numbers/impact signals all of a sudden becoming way less pronounced (hell, they played at a +7 net-rating during the 2023 title run with him off the court) in the playoffs? I'm just not buying the "he's so far ahead of everyone in history" in impact just because the RS numbers say so.

So, you have good concerns, but just on the point about leading top offenses, to me if you're leading elite offense when you're on the court, and you play star minutes, I don't really have any serious doubts about your offense. Other guys may be more even more impressive, but you're past the threshold where I'm still holding on to my proverbial wallet.

One funny thing: You made me think of an old spreadsheet I made I believe in 2020 I'll have to dig up. Now in 2020, Jokic hadn't done anything likes of what he's done since, so when I find it I expect he won't look all that impressive. If I get curious enough, I'll update the sheet and share it.

Updated the spreadsheet through '23-24 for the NBA.

So TAO stands for "Times Above One", as in, times where that player's On-Court levels were above the best team in the league's levels. While we would obviously recognize that all real teams are "held back" by their bench minutes, I'd still say that topping their ratings is as meaningful a threshold as we're likely to get.

So below are the guys with the most Offensive, Defensive & Net TAO years, minimum 24 MPG & 20 GP beginning in '96-97 - the first year we have such data. Active players in Bold.

Offensive:

1. Steve Nash 12
2. Shaquille O'Neal 8
3. Kevin Durant 7
(tie) LeBron James 7
(tie) Dirk Nowitzki 7
(tie) Chris Paul 7
7. James Harden 6
(tie) John Stockton 6
9. Steph Curry 5
(tie) Blake Griffin 5
(tie) Nikola Jokic 5

Note that this does not include the entirety of Shaq or Stockton's careers.

Defensive:

1. Tim Duncan 14
2. Rudy Gobert 7
3. Bruce Bowen 6
(tie) Kevin Garnett 6
(tie) Danny Green 6
(tie) David Robinson 6
7. Joel Embiid 5
(tie) Andre Iguodala 5
(tie) Tony Parker 5
10. Eleven Tied at 4

Note that this does not include the entirety of Garnett or Robinson's careers.

Net:

1. Tim Duncan 13
2. LeBron James 8
3. Steph Curry 7
(tie) Tony Parker 7
5. Kevin Durant 6
(tie) Manu Ginobili 6
(tie) Kawhi Leonard 6
(tie) Dirk Nowitzki 6
(tie) Shaquille O'Neal 6
10. Four Tied at 5

Once again, this doesn't include all of Shaq's career.

So take away what you decide to take away, but yeah, I see Jokic as a guy whose time spent playing in offensive lineups is about as consistently elite as anyone not named Nash, and doing it without another all-star around, so I'm really not skeptical of his offense.

[Ron Swanson]

I'll admit to unintentionally steering the discussion towards an overall critique of the on/off numbers and lineup data in general (not just offense), but this is good analysis. FWIW I also have doubts about Nash, Durant, and Shaq's respective offensive GOAT cases, but that's a discussion for another day.

[lessthanjake]

Here’s some data regarding the offensive rating of a bunch of star players’ teams when they’re on the court in the last five seasons, using PBPstats’ data (largely because that gives possession numbers, allowing us to combine data when a player played for multiple teams in a season). I ran these numbers for every player that finished top 5 in MVP voting at some point in this span. I note that for some of these players, this timespan encompasses some years where they weren’t in their prime anymore/yet, as well as some years where they missed significant time due to injury. But I included everything for completeness sake.

2023-24

1. Jokic: 124.04
2. Tatum: 123.55
3. Brunson: 122.94
4. SGA: 122.74
5. Harden: 122.62
6. Giannis: 122.03
7. Luka: 121.40
8. Embiid: 121.19
9. Booker: 121.07
10. Kawhi: 120.87
11. Durant: 120.17
12. LeBron: 119.99
13. Curry: 119.30
14. CP3: 116.77

2022-23

1. Jokic: 126.12
2. Harden: 121.49
3. Embiid: 121.28
4. Tatum: 121.10
5. Brunson: 121.01
6. Booker: 120.87
7. Curry: 120.10
8. Kawhi: 120.07
9. Luka: 119.85
10. Giannis: 119.64
11. Durant: 118.97
12. LeBron: 118.49
13. SGA: 117.67
14. CP3: 116.52

2021-22

1. Booker: 119.50
2. Giannis: 119.08
3. Jokic: 118.89
4. Embiid: 118.29
5. Tatum: 117.96
6. Durant: 117.78
7. CP3: 117.67
8. Harden: 117.48
9. Brunson: 116.23
10. Curry: 116.03
11. Luka: 115.65
12. LeBron: 113.55
13. SGA: 107.95
14. Kawhi: N/A

2020-21

1. Durant: 124.64
2. Kawhi: 123.25
3. Jokic: 121.75
4. Booker: 120.35
5. Embiid: 119.64
6. Harden: 119.46
7. Giannis: 119.30
8. Luka: 118.65
9. CP3: 118.10
10. Tatum: 117.35
11. Brunson: 115.99
12. Curry: 115.52
13. LeBron: 115.30
14. SGA: 108.55

2019-20

1. Kawhi: 118.93
2. Luka: 118.68
3. CP3: 116.64
4. Brunson: 116.53
5. Tatum: 116.42
6. Booker: 116.18
7. Giannis: 115.40
8. Jokic: 115.25
9. Harden: 115.11
10. LeBron: 114.95
11. SGA: 114.26
12. Curry: 111.18
13. Embiid: 110.90
14. Durant: N/A

I don’t think we can really look at this and say Jokic isn’t producing elite offense. He’s the clear standout here. He was 1st the last two years—including being miles ahead of the pack in 2022-2023. The 2021-2022 year is a close 3rd but is actually perhaps the most impressive when we look at his supporting cast, which was utterly abysmal. Meanwhile, in 2020-2021, he’s 3rd again (despite his team dealing with tons of significant injuries), and the only ones ahead of him missed a lot of time that year (Durant only played 35 games and Kawhi only played 52). Furthermore, drilling down a bit on some concepts mentioned, the fact that Jokic’s 2022-2023 is easily the highest value here and was so far ahead that year definitely shows major ceiling raising (while not actually really on a massively talented team—just one that was good and healthy). And, as mentioned above, the fact that he did so well in this in a year like 2021-2022 shows pretty ridiculous floor raising as well. So I really don’t think we can look at team offense rating as some kind of evidence disputing Jokic’s historic offensive brilliance.

[Peregrine01]

Here’s some data regarding the offensive rating of a bunch of star players’ teams when they’re on the court in the last five seasons, using PBPstats’ data (largely because that gives possession numbers, allowing us to combine data when a player played for multiple teams in a season). I ran these numbers for every player that finished top 5 in MVP voting at some point in this span. I note that for some of these players, this timespan encompasses some years where they weren’t in their prime anymore/yet, as well as some years where they missed significant time due to injury. But I included everything for completeness sake.

2023-24

1. Jokic: 124.04
2. Tatum: 123.55
3. Brunson: 122.94
4. SGA: 122.74
5. Harden: 122.62
6. Giannis: 122.03
7. Luka: 121.40
8. Embiid: 121.19
9. Booker: 121.07
10. Kawhi: 120.87
11. Durant: 120.17
12. LeBron: 119.99
13. Curry: 119.30
14. CP3: 116.77

2022-23

1. Jokic: 126.12
2. Harden: 121.49
3. Embiid: 121.28
4. Tatum: 121.10
5. Brunson: 121.01
6. Booker: 120.87
7. Curry: 120.10
8. Kawhi: 120.07
9. Luka: 119.85
10. Giannis: 119.64
11. Durant: 118.97
12. LeBron: 118.49
13. SGA: 117.67
14. CP3: 116.52

2021-22

1. Booker: 119.50
2. Giannis: 119.08
3. Jokic: 118.89
4. Embiid: 118.29
5. Tatum: 117.96
6. Durant: 117.78
7. CP3: 117.67
8. Harden: 117.48
9. Brunson: 116.23
10. Curry: 116.03
11. Luka: 115.65
12. LeBron: 113.55
13. SGA: 107.95
14. Kawhi: N/A

2020-21

1. Durant: 124.64
2. Kawhi: 123.25
3. Jokic: 121.75
4. Booker: 120.35
5. Embiid: 119.64
6. Harden: 119.46
7. Giannis: 119.30
8. Luka: 118.65
9. CP3: 118.10
10. Tatum: 117.35
11. Brunson: 115.99
12. Curry: 115.52
13. LeBron: 115.30
14. SGA: 108.55

2019-20

1. Kawhi: 118.93
2. Luka: 118.68
3. CP3: 116.64
4. Brunson: 116.53
5. Tatum: 116.42
6. Booker: 116.18
7. Giannis: 115.40
8. Jokic: 115.25
9. Harden: 115.11
10. LeBron: 114.95
11. SGA: 114.26
12. Curry: 111.18
13. Embiid: 110.90
14. Durant: N/A

I don’t think we can really look at this and say Jokic isn’t producing elite offense. He’s the clear standout here. He was 1st the last two years—including being miles ahead of the pack in 2022-2023. The 2021-2022 year is a close 3rd but is actually perhaps the most impressive when we look at his supporting cast, which was utterly abysmal. Meanwhile, in 2020-2021, he’s 3rd again (despite his team dealing with tons of significant injuries), and the only ones ahead of him missed a lot of time that year (Durant only played 35 games and Kawhi only played 52). Furthermore, drilling down a bit on some concepts mentioned, the fact that Jokic’s 2022-2023 is easily the highest value here and was so far ahead that year definitely shows major ceiling raising (while not actually really on a massively talented team—just one that was good and healthy). And, as mentioned above, the fact that he did so well in this in a year like 2021-2022 shows pretty ridiculous floor raising as well. So I really don’t think we can look at team offense rating as some kind of evidence disputing Jokic’s historic offensive brilliance.

The 2022 numbers are probably the best argument against the idea that Jokic’s on-court ORTG is being inflated because he plays a lot of minutes with starters. Unless you think a starting lineup of Monte Morris, Will Barton, Jeff Green and Aaron Gordon are particularly “inflating”.

[Dr Positivity]

With the ratings declining this year it matches my vibes feeling that the league has lost rizz but I think the problems actually started years ago, but was masked by how social media was more interested in the player movement drama than the games. The change with the Jokic, Giannis, Doncic, etc. era may not be that their Euros, but that they're loyal to their teams more than guys like Durant and Harden. I believe the psychology of Gen Z along with competition for their interests is different which throws the whole sports landscape going forward into an interesting place especially for probably the youngest skewing sport. They have abandoned some things people 20 years ago were into like rock music and comedic movie stars so what makes sports so safe? But with that said, it's not too long until Gen Alpha starts becoming relevant in sports environment.

[OhayoKD]

With the ratings declining this year it matches my vibes feeling that the league has lost rizz but I think the problems actually started years ago, but was masked by how social media was more interested in the player movement drama than the games. The change with the Jokic, Giannis, Doncic, etc. era may not be that their Euros, but that they're loyal to their teams more than guys like Durant and Harden. I believe the psychology of Gen Z along with competition for their interests is different which throws the whole sports landscape going forward into an interesting place especially for probably the youngest skewing sport. They have abandoned some things people 20 years ago were into like rock music and comedic movie stars so what makes sports so safe? But with that said, it's not too long until Gen Alpha starts becoming relevant in sports environment.

League with media ecosystem that has spent the last 50 years insisting their generation of players were better and the product sucks sees it's fanbase losing interest in the product.

Absolutely shocked

[RCM88x]

With the ratings declining this year it matches my vibes feeling that the league has lost rizz but I think the problems actually started years ago, but was masked by how social media was more interested in the player movement drama than the games. The change with the Jokic, Giannis, Doncic, etc. era may not be that their Euros, but that they're loyal to their teams more than guys like Durant and Harden. I believe the psychology of Gen Z along with competition for their interests is different which throws the whole sports landscape going forward into an interesting place especially for probably the youngest skewing sport. They have abandoned some things people 20 years ago were into like rock music and comedic movie stars so what makes sports so safe? But with that said, it's not too long until Gen Alpha starts becoming relevant in sports environment.

League with media ecosystem that has spent the last 50 years insisting their generation of players were better and the product sucks sees it's fanbase losing interest in the product.

Absolutely shocked

Yep, non-serious media coverage for two decades plus. Horrifically outdated methods of distribution. Foreign stars dominating the league.

I think long term the league will be fine but it's definitely a concern. I also think there's a lot of stuff out of their control that has contributed too though. It's unrealistic to expect the NBA to maintain the same level of eyes forever.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think any league will have its ups and downs ratings/popularity wise. People are in too much of a hurry to make a big deal out of the nba going through a down phase. That's part of business though. You recognize that your audience/customer base isn't as happy with your product as it was a month a year or 5 years ago and have to adapt. I don't think lack of star power is the issue(even with it being more Euro based) so much as the media and the league(more so with the media who cover the sport on a near daily basis) have done such a poor job of fully embracing its post LeBron/Steph/KD stars and with the game becoming too offense oriented. The league sort of dabbles with trying to make changes to address the latter but doesn't fully commit to it. I'm guessing they have their own ways of gauging how the public reacts to such changes and has decided that offense is what will drive ratings but that might not be the case in the long term.

[RCM88x]

The uproar over the FTs in the Grizz-Lakers game last night gives a window into the "issue" as well. People (especially younger) just don't have the attention span anymore to watch a full game like this during the regular season, even if on average the games have less FTs and more possessions/movement than in the past. Maybe it's the overloading of advertisement? Maybe the games are just too long? Maybe there are too many games?

[penbeast0]

League with media ecosystem that has spent the last 50 years insisting their generation of players were better and the product sucks sees it's fanbase losing interest in the product.

Absolutely shocked

Jordan was more like 25 years ago and any check of mainstream media will overwhelmingly vote Jordan (with a solid LeBron minority and a few statheads who push Russell).

[Fadeaway_J]

The uproar over the FTs in the Grizz-Lakers game last night gives a window into the "issue" as well. People (especially younger) just don't have the attention span anymore to watch a full game like this during the regular season, even if on average the games have less FTs and more possessions/movement than in the past. Maybe it's the overloading of advertisement? Maybe the games are just too long? Maybe there are too many games?

I think the games in the past were too long, so I do find it annoying when we get an endless parade to the FT line like last night. One additional wrinkle is that we also have so many replay reviews now, and that just kills momentum even more.

[OhayoKD]

League with media ecosystem that has spent the last 50 years insisting their generation of players were better and the product sucks sees it's fanbase losing interest in the product.

Absolutely shocked

Jordan was more like 25 years ago and any check of mainstream media will overwhelmingly vote Jordan (with a solid LeBron minority and a few statheads who push Russell).

Yeah, "their generation of players" was too narrow for the time-frame chosen

[ShaqAttac]

lets cook them kings

[EmpireFalls]

Jokic has given up approximately 50 wide open jumpers off DHO action tonight. Let’s pump the brakes a bit with him kids.

[Special_Puppy]

Jokic has given up approximately 50 wide open jumpers off DHO action tonight. Let’s pump the brakes a bit with him kids.

Probably his worst game of the season

[capfan33]

Jokic has given up approximately 50 wide open jumpers off DHO action tonight. Let’s pump the brakes a bit with him kids.

Why are the playoffs starting so early this year?

[The-Power]

Jokic has given up approximately 50 wide open jumpers off DHO action tonight. Let’s pump the brakes a bit with him kids.

Not sure what this cryptic comment is supposed to be meant for. I'm sure everyone is well aware that Jokic has defensive limitations. What is a single regular season game supposed to indicative of that almost 800 NBA games have not already shown us? Do you seriously believe that the people who hold Jokic in very high regard are going to change their tune based on a poor defensive game as if their opinion on him is so shallow that they have not already taken those defensive shortcomings into consideration when forming it?

[itsxtray]

One of the worst offensive games I've ever seen from a title contender, especially considering era.

[OhayoKD]

Jokic has given up approximately 50 wide open jumpers off DHO action tonight. Let’s pump the brakes a bit with him kids.

Not sure what this cryptic comment is supposed to be meant for. I'm sure everyone is well aware that Jokic has defensive limitations. What is a single regular season game supposed to indicative of that almost 800 NBA games have not already shown us? Do you seriously believe that the people who hold Jokic in very high regard are going to change their tune based on a poor defensive game as if their opinion on him is so shallow that they have not already taken those defensive shortcomings into consideration when forming it?

I think it's given about as much consideration as alternative models to "jump-shooting and running around curls = scalable/ceiling raiser vs uses the ball outside of scoring or assisting = - 2 portability/floor-raiser" have been, which is to say, barely a thought.