mdenny wrote:Smh there is literally no such thing as "tanking for a player" unless you are mathematically inept.
No team...wherever they place in standings...has a greater chance of "getting a player" than 14%.
And if you run a multi-billion dollar franchise in the hopes of a 14% chance....you deserve to lose your job.
All this 'tank for zion' and 'tank for wemby' is children's school yard talk. No serious business person or manager thinks in terms of 14% chances lol.
The whole "tank" thing really is partly a product of internet trolls who are very very dumb. That's not to say all tank ppl are trolls. But all trolls are tank ppl because it's the most alluring stance to take for very dumb ppl who think they are clever.
All that said...I'm kinda satisfied everytime the raptors lose this season. But not because I buy into the "Cooper flagg hype".
I'd estimate there is less than a 20% chance that Flagg ends up the best player of his draft class. Which doesn't mean a team shouldn't pick him #1. It means that NBA drafting is much more inaccurate than tankers typically think it is (despite all the evidence available to them).
So think of it this way in context of "tank for flagg". Let's forget about the odds of coming last in the league. Suppose you do! You have a 14% chance of getting a guy who has a 20% chance of being the best in his draft class.
14% times 20% is 2%.
So if we come in last place...we have a 2% chance of getting Cooper flagg and him becoming the best player from his draft class.
Might as well start playing scratch and win cards.
If the raptors turn things around and start winning games....it is much more likely it will happen because of something none of the tank trolls saw coming. (Like they hated the barnes pick)
No one wants to tank for Flagg, Flagg would be a great blue chip however you have other guys flashing blue chip potential as well. Harper for sure is blue chip. Denim and Kasparas are close to blue chip, and then you have guys like Tre who are showing high-end starter potential and Raw High-ceiling guys like VJ and Ace. Now the higher your pick, and the more you tank the better chance of getting the guy you want.
Also where did you get this 20% number from and how is that relevant? and is Cooper being the best player in the draft even relevant. If Ace develops and becomes a more athletic Jayson tatum, and Harper becomes a bigger better jalen brunson where as Flagg only becomes an Andrei kirelinko; are you really complaining about drafting Andrei Kirelinko?
Tanking is about having the best access odds to acquiring controlled high-end talent because our team has failed to develop talent since OG and Siakam; we have failed to sign any of note in free agency; the last positive impact player traded for outside of Kawhi has been Poetl (which also cost a fortune); the last positive impact player we resigned as been Poetl. The only true championship-level player we have is Barnes and guess what we acquired him through tanking. So now my question is, if this team is failing to develop high-end talent through the later rounds, trade or resign high-impact guys, and fail to attract high-impact guys in free agency, then what alternative is there other than to tank?