Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE — Tim Duncan

[AEnigma]

General Project Discussion Thread

Discussion and Results from the 2010 Project

In this thread we'll discuss and vote on the top 5 players and the top 3 offensive and defensive players of 1998-99.

Player of the Year (POY)(5) — most accomplished overall player of that season
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)(3) — most accomplished offensive player of that season
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)(3) — most accomplished defensive player of that season

Voting will close sometime after 21:00PM EST on Sunday, December 22nd. I have no issue keeping it open so long as discussion is strong, but please try to vote within the first three days.

Valid ballots must provide an explanation for your choices that gives us a window into how you thought and why you came to the decisions you did. You can vote for any of the three awards — although they must be complete votes — but I will only tally votes for an award when there are at least five valid ballots submitted for it.

Remember, your votes must be based on THIS season. This is intended to give wide wiggle room for personal philosophies while still providing a boundary to make sure the award can be said to mean something. You can factor things like degree of difficulty as defined by you, but what you can't do is ignore how the player actually played on the floor this season in favor of what he might have done if only...

You may change your vote, but if you do, edit your original post rather than writing, "hey, ignore my last post, this is my real post until I change my mind again.” I similarly ask that ballots be kept in one post rather than making one post for Player of the Year, one post for Offensive Player of the Year, and/or one post for Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to provide your reasoning that way for the sake of discussion, fine, but please keep the official votes themselves in one aggregated post. Finally, for ease of tallying, I prefer for you to place your votes at the beginning of your balloting post, with some formatting that makes them stand out. I will not discount votes which fail to follow these requests, but I am certainly more likely to overlook them.

Contrarian votes can be and have been sincere, but they look a lot more sincere when you take the time to fully present your reasoning rather than transparently pretend nothing is amiss.

Vote sincerely. Do not move a player down in your voting to give another player an advantage. I would encourage every voter to give some explanations while they do their voting - but particularly if you have a top 5 that deviates strongly with the norm and you haven't expressed your thoughts on it earlier in the thread. If I'm not satisfied, I may ask you for more of an explanation - and it may come to actually booting people out of the project.

The rules here are that you've got to use the same type of thinking for all 5 votes. I understand putting more thought into #1 than #5, but I don't want PJ Brown votes. Voters do Brown type votes to give a guy an honorable mention. Makes sense if people only care about who finishes 1st, but I've been clear that I want to measure more than that. I've been trying to encourage literal "honorable mentions" to serve that purpose, and I'd ask that people use that as the way they honor guys who did something special but who aren't actually a top 5 guy that year.

There is a significant difference between a properly justified and internally consistent contrarian vote, and a vote whose purpose is to undermine the project itself. Ballots which threaten to do the latter and derail project discussion via blatant vote manipulation are liable to be tossed. If it happens twice, the offending poster will be removed from the project.

Current Voter List

Spoiler:

[One_and_Done]

1. Duncan


2. Shaq
3. Zo
4. K.Malone
5. G.Hill

This is the easiest vote for a long time. I’ve outlined in this thread my views on the 99 Spurs.
viewtopic.php?t=2367353
To summarise, they were an extremely overrated team of guys who were past their prime, or just not very good to begin with. Duncan was everything to that team, and that team was the best in the NBA by a clear margin.

For the next 6 or more years, exception 00 when he was injured, my vote is going to be for Duncan. His closest rival for these seasons is Shaq (my 00 vote, who will get a look in for 01 as well), but this year Duncan makes it easy for us by crushing Shaq head to head (even though Shaq clearly has more help).

Duncan has 29, 10.8, 3.3, 2, 1 on 600 TS%, as against Shaq’s 23.8, 13, 0.5, 1.8, 1 on 506 TS%. More important than the stats though, was Duncan’s impact. Duncan was the defensive anchor for the Spurs too, while Shaq was more or less helpless as the Lakers got swept. Shaq had real and legitimate help; an all-nba calibre Kobe, and an all-star calibre Glen Rice, along with good role players like Fox, Horry, Fisher, etc. Duncan’s co “star” was a distinctly past his prime Admiral, who only put up 13-6 in a mere 28mpg this series. The rest of Duncan’s team isn’t even worth talking about. Elliot was still an ok player, but they had little else. It’s criminal Duncan didn’t win the MVP this year, but as a 2nd year player you can understand why voters weren’t ready to go to him yet. Instead, it went to a more known “name” in Malone, who honestly probably wasn’t even top 3 in reality.

Shaq doesn’t require much explanation. Zo hasn’t been much discussed at this point, and this will likely be the only year he gets a vote from me given his kidney issues hit him right after. It’s a shame, because it’s led to many people forgetting how good Zo was. He was not Duncan certainly, Duncan outplayed him in a chance encounter when they were teenagers in fact, and watching Zo on offense is painful at times. His form was mechanical and clunky, even moreso than old man D.Rob. However, he was a defensive force in an era where you could and did build your team from the inside out. Mourning made the Heat a legit contender, and had it not been for suspensions they might have been playing for the title against the Spurs.

Malone still makes 4th place on my ballot. Grant Hill comes in at 5th again. I don’t care that he lost in the 1st round, because his support cast was hot garbage. The Hawks had far more talent on their team, so of course they were going to win. I’m impressed he got it to be so close.

[Narigo]

I think Duncan, Shaq, and Robinson has a case for the number 1 spot imo.

[One_and_Done]

I think Duncan, Shaq, and Robinson has a case for the number 1 spot imo.

D.Rob's 13-6 in 28mpg in the Lakers series really screams POY.

[Narigo]

1. Duncan


2. Shaq
3. Zo
4. K.Malone
5. G.Hill

This is the easiest vote for a long time. I’ve outlined in this thread my views on the 99 Spurs.
viewtopic.php?t=2367353
To summarise, they were an extremely overrated team of guys who were past their prime, or just not very good to begin with. Duncan was everything to that team, and that team was the best in the NBA by a clear margin.

For the next 6 or more years, exception 00 when he was injured, my vote is going to be for Duncan. His closest rival for these seasons is Shaq (my 00 vote, who will get a look in for 01 as well), but this year Duncan makes it easy for us by crushing Shaq head to head (even though Shaq clearly has more help).

Duncan has 29, 10.8, 3.3, 2, 1 on 600 TS%, as against Shaq’s 23.8, 13, 0.5, 1.8, 1 on 506 TS%. More important than the stats though, was Duncan’s impact. Duncan was the defensive anchor for the Spurs too, while Shaq was more or less helpless as the Lakers got swept. Shaq had real and legitimate help; an all-nba calibre Kobe, and an all-star calibre Glen Rice, along with good role players like Fox, Horry, Fisher, etc. Duncan’s co “star” was a distinctly past his prime Admiral, who only put up 13-6 in a mere 28mpg this series. The rest of Duncan’s team isn’t even worth talking about. Elliot was still an ok player, but they had little else. It’s criminal Duncan didn’t win the MVP this year, but as a 2nd year player you can understand why voters weren’t ready to go to him yet. Instead, it went to a more known “name” in Malone, who honestly probably wasn’t even top 3 in reality.

Shaq doesn’t require much explanation. Zo hasn’t been much discussed at this point, and this will likely be the only year he gets a vote from me given his kidney issues hit him right after. It’s a shame, because it’s led to many people forgetting how good Zo was. He was not Duncan certainly, Duncan outplayed him in a chance encounter when they were teenagers in fact, and watching Zo on offense is painful at times. His form was mechanical and clunky, even moreso than old man D.Rob. However, he was a defensive force in an era where you could and did build your team from the inside out. Mourning made the Heat a legit contender, and had it not been for suspensions they might have been playing for the title against the Spurs.

Wasnt Robinson the primary defender for Shaq? He was instrumental in slowing Shaq down that series. Robinson also looks better than Duncan in impact stats and box score metrics. Duncan was clearly the best offensive player of the two. But they did win off their defense in which Robinson was defintely the best defender based off the metrics we have such as RAPM and on/off. Also Robinson on-off looks better in the playoffs in comparison to Duncan

[One_and_Done]

If all you do is look at advanced stats maybe. I did a breakdown of some gameplay on the linked thread though, and D.Rob looks like a mid role player out there. Honestly, so many games look like that. Go watch some footage on YouTube, it's not pretty.

But then just use common sense. One guy is playing well over 40mpg and putting up 29-11, while the other is playing 28mpg and putting up 13-6. In no world is the latter giving you more value, or not in this world anyway.

[penbeast0]

I normally emphasize RS over PS more than most posters but with the shortened and messed up season, this season I have to look more fully at playoff runs.

SA is the best team in the league either way as Duncan fully comes into his own and Robinson still one of, if not the best, defensive center in basketball. I have Duncan rated a bit higher due mainly to minutes but Robinson's contribution gets underrated by those who just look at Pointz.

Utah was the 2nd best TS team, Portland 3rd; Portland beat Utah in the 2nd on their way to getting swept by the Spurs (who won their matchups 3-1, 4-0, 4-0, 4-1). Jailblazers had a lot of guys I didn't like (Rider, Rasheed, Mighty Mouse) together with guys I did (Sabas, Grant, the whole bench rotation except Jim Jackson). Sabonis was their highest MVP vote getter but Rasheed Wallace was the team's leader. For Utah (stop me if you've heard this before), Karl Malone's scoring and rebounding were assisted by John Stockton's passing and ballhawking. Houston and LA also won 30.

In the east, Miami, Indiana, and Orlando were the top RS teams with the Hawks also winning 30. NY had a playoff run, beating Indiana's league best offense to get to their finals whuppin by the Spurs. Ewing was slowing down in NY and was injured for half their playoff run, instead they won with team defense as Marcus Camby stepped up. Indiana was still Reggie Miller outside and Rik Smits inside.

Iverson led the league in scoring, Webber in rebounding, Kidd in assists, observers gave the MVP to Karl Malone and DPOY to Alonzo Mourning. Box score compilation stats split 2-2 between Shaq and Malone though David Robinson was rated quite highly despite smaller minutes.

Player of the Year
1. Tim Duncan
2. Karl Malone
3. Shaquille O'Neal
4. David Robinson
5. Alonzo Mourning

[B-Mitch 30]

I normally emphasize RS over PS more than most posters but with the shortened and messed up season, this season I have to look more fully at playoff runs.[/b]

I feel like if anything, the regular season matters more than usual, since each game is more important at determining playoff seeding.

[Djoker]

As Narigo pointed out, Robinson not making the ballot is really interesting. Duncan was better but Robinson was better on defense and still a factor on offense. I don't see the gap between them as very large at all. And yes Robinson was the primary defender on Shaq and did a great job on him.

Shaq, Malone, Zo, Garnett all in the hunt to make the ballot for me.

[One_and_Done]

As Narigo pointed out, Robinson not making the ballot is really interesting. Duncan was better but Robinson was better on defense and still a factor on offense. I don't see the gap between them as very large at all. And yes Robinson was the primary defender on Shaq and did a great job on him.

Shaq, Malone, Zo, Garnett all in the hunt to make the ballot for me.

This is a classic case of people focussing too much on advanced stats. I have been among the most prominent of the Admiral's supporters in this project, but by 99 he just wasn't that guy anymore. If the advanced stats say otherwise, they're wrong.

Go to YouTube, and watch the stretch of play I broke down in that linked thread, then tell me D.Rob was the best player on the Spurs or even close. Heck, go watch a bunch of 99 playoff games. That team was Duncan and not much else. D.Rob was closer to a role player than he was to being a star. I was rewatching games 1 and 5 of the finals just yesterday. It is painful how clunky, mechanical and slow D.Rob looks.

The same advanced stats thought D.Rob was an amazing defensive player in 03 too, even though the Spurs went 15-3 in games he missed and got substantially better on D after he retired.

[trelos6]

OPOY

1.Shaquille O’Neal. 29.7 pp75 on +7.3 rTS%. Team rOrtg was +5.4. Slight decline in volume and a bigger decline in efficiency in the post season, but still well ahead of anyone else volume wise.

2.Reggie Miller. 21.5 pp75, +7.9 rTS%. Team rOrtg was +6.5. His efficiency took a bit of a hit in the post season, but his scoring volume went up slightly.

3.Gary Payton. 21.7 pp75 +0.8 rTS%. Team rOrtg was +2.8. Not as good of a a passer as Kidd, but a little more playmaking, and a big difference in scoring (16.4 pp75 for Kidd).


DPOY

1.Dikembe Mutombo. Best defender in the late 90s. I docked him last year because of his team’s dRtg, but they’re back as a top 2 defense, so Dikembe is #1 again.

2.David Robinson. Best defender on the Spurs, who were by far and away the best defensive team in the league.

3.Tim Duncan. Super impactful defensively, and Spurs were built on defense, so happy to have 2 Spurs in my top 3.



POY

1.Tim Duncan. 22.4 pp75, +3 rTS%, in the playoffs he kept the volume, and his efficiency rose to +6 rTS%. Defensively, he’s also a standout. +2.12 OPIPM, +2.27 DPIPM, +4.39 PIPM. 12.49 Wins Added. The top 3 is super close this year, so I don’t begrudge anyone for putting them in any order.

2.Shaquille O’Neal. +4.92 OPIPM, -0.17 DPIPM. +4.75 PIPM. 9.41 Wins Added. Shaq’s a force on the offensive end, and yeah, his efficiency drops to league average in the post season, and his volume dropped also, he was still a standout offensively.

3.David Robinson. I have him over Tim Duncan by a hair, but was persuaded by the playing time arguments (mpg). Offensively, D Rob was still effective. 20.3 pp75 on +5.3 rTS%. In the ps, that dropped to 18.6 on similar efficiency. Defensively, I think Robinson was still the alpha on the Spurs, though Timmy is coming. +1.74 OPIPM, +3.84 DPIPM, +5.58 PIPM. 11.69 Wins Added.

4.Alonzo Mourning. 22.4 pp75 on +5.2 in the rs, upped the volume and efficiency slightly in the ps (5 games). He was in consideration for DPOY, would’ve made the top 5. +1.71 OPIPM, +2.95 DPIPM. +4.66 PIPM. 9.27 Wins Added.

5.Karl Malone. Narrowly beats out Dikembe as his volume wasn’t great (though very efficient as a scorer). Karl was 26.3 pp75 +6.6 rTS% in the rs, but his efficiency fell off hard in the ps, below league average, and his volume dropped to 22.2 pp75. +3.35 OPIPM, +0.69 DPIPM. +4.04 PIPM. 9.86 Wins Added.

[Djoker]

As Narigo pointed out, Robinson not making the ballot is really interesting. Duncan was better but Robinson was better on defense and still a factor on offense. I don't see the gap between them as very large at all. And yes Robinson was the primary defender on Shaq and did a great job on him.

Shaq, Malone, Zo, Garnett all in the hunt to make the ballot for me.

This is a classic case of people focussing too much on advanced stats. I have been among the most prominent of the Admiral's supporters in this project, but by 99 he just wasn't that guy anymore. If the advanced stats say otherwise, they're wrong.

Go to YouTube, and watch the stretch of play I broke down in that linked thread, then tell me D.Rob was the best player on the Spurs or even close. Heck, go watch a bunch of 99 playoff games. That team was Duncan and not much else. D.Rob was closer to a role player than he was to being a star. I was rewatching games 1 and 5 of the finals just yesterday. It is painful how clunky, mechanical and slow D.Rob looks.

I'm not saying he's better than Duncan. I'm just saying that he's still a star and deserves a top 5 finish for his contribution to the Spurs' success. Role player description should be applied to Robinson only from 2002 onwards. In 1999 he finished 4th in DPOY while Duncan finished 5th. DRob defended Shaq and did so very well. And he was the best Spur in the WCF against Portland.

[One_and_Done]

Go watch games 1 & 5 of the finals on YouTube. Heck, just watch that 14 minute stretch I broke down. There is no way you can watch and come away with the conclusion that Robinson was a top 5 player this year. He wasn't even a top 15 player this year.

[Djoker]

Go watch games 1 & 5 of the finals on YouTube. Heck, just watch that 14 minute stretch I broke down. There is no way you can watch and come away with the conclusion that Robinson was a top 5 player this year. He wasn't even a top 15 player this year.

Honestly the bolded is a crazy take to me.

[One_and_Done]

Uhuh. Go watch that footage on youtube and tell me how you feel after.

[DCasey91]

What's the protocol on voting induction?

Also Reggie getting headway from 94 onwards is great he really is a top 5 canditate offensively surrounding the 1st option. (Prefer him over lauded offensive players such as Stockton/Nash/CP3).

[DCasey91]

Go watch games 1 & 5 of the finals on YouTube. Heck, just watch that 14 minute stretch I broke down. There is no way you can watch and come away with the conclusion that Robinson was a top 5 player this year. He wasn't even a top 15 player this year.

Honestly the bolded is a crazy take to me.

Shaq
Duncan
Kidd
Malone
Miller
Hill
Garnett
Hakeem
Payton
Iverson
Hakeem
Barkley
Kemp
Mourning

That's 14, DROB makes 15. Usage was 42nd that year. Not saying I agree with it, weird year no one's fault

[70sFan]

Go watch games 1 & 5 of the finals on YouTube. Heck, just watch that 14 minute stretch I broke down. There is no way you can watch and come away with the conclusion that Robinson was a top 5 player this year. He wasn't even a top 15 player this year.

1. It's funny that you tell people who track old games to start watching games.

2. Why did you choose these games? Was it because these two were by far the ones when Robinson had the worst offensive production of the series?

3. Robinson would be a top 15 player even if he was a negative offensive player by his defense alone that year. Taking him outside top 15 overall is ridiculous.

[One_and_Done]

Go watch games 1 & 5 of the finals on YouTube. Heck, just watch that 14 minute stretch I broke down. There is no way you can watch and come away with the conclusion that Robinson was a top 5 player this year. He wasn't even a top 15 player this year.

1. It's funny that you tell people who track old games to start watching games.

2. Why did you choose these games? Was it because these two were by far the ones when Robinson had the worst offensive production of the series?

3. Robinson would be a top 15 player even if he was a negative offensive player by his defense alone that year. Taking him outside top 15 overall is ridiculous.

Those are just 2 random games from the finals that are easily accessible on youtube. According to advanced stats he was supposedly incredible in those games (+17 in game 1!) so it would be strange to suggest they're cherry picked. I could have said 'go watch the Lakers series'. With him averaging 13-6 bad games wouldn't have been hard to come by.

[DCasey91]

Wait is it really that big of a stretch to put DROB over Duncan? Yes it is

That's some steep asf stretching. He's not taking the offensive load for starters, which Duncan improved significantly efficiency wise while still keeping the volume at a good old +6. Heck did Peak Robinson ever have a stretch of +6RTS while keeping the same volume load in a whole playoffs run?

A poster literally made a solidified a case against him yet voted ahead. That's the definition of illogical and counterintuitive.

Why use numbers that point it out then use your own bias to make your decision as final. Might as well not put numbers in at all that's just fluff

Posters sooner rather than later need to realise volume of quality matters. It matters a **** Ton. No you can't just replace it with xyz and expect the result to be the same.

If Ewing and Robinson transferred their load and efficiency on RS to PS then both would have championships... but they didn't did they?