Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE — Tim Duncan

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 30,091
And1: 25,393
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#21 » by 70sFan » Fri Dec 20, 2024 9:34 am

One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Go watch games 1 & 5 of the finals on YouTube. Heck, just watch that 14 minute stretch I broke down. There is no way you can watch and come away with the conclusion that Robinson was a top 5 player this year. He wasn't even a top 15 player this year.

1. It's funny that you tell people who track old games to start watching games.

2. Why did you choose these games? Was it because these two were by far the ones when Robinson had the worst offensive production of the series?

3. Robinson would be a top 15 player even if he was a negative offensive player by his defense alone that year. Taking him outside top 15 overall is ridiculous.

Those are just 2 random games from the finals that are easily accessible on youtube. According to advanced stats he was supposedly incredible in those games (+17 in game 1!) so it would be strange to suggest they're cherry picked. I could have said 'go watch the Lakers series'. With him averaging 13-6 bad games wouldn't have been hard to come by.

The whole series is available on NBA.com:

https://www.nba.com/watch/list/collection/1999-nba-finals-spurs-vs-knicks

It's the first time I've seen someone calling raw +/- "advanced stats".

The Lakers series is bad from boxscore perspective because he played only 28 mpg, all due to foul trouble he faced against Shaq. It doesn't change the fact that his impact on the series was immense, as he was the main reason why Shaq had one of the worst series of his career (unlike later, Duncan didn't defend Shaq in 1999 series). Thinking that Robinson was "bad" against the Lakers is the definition of boxscore watching.

Robinson wasn't better than Duncan, you don't need to downgrade him as much as possible to make Tim look good. Timmy is a clear choice for POY for the majority of voters and it's true that Spurs supporting cast wasn't really that good - but it's not because Robinson was a roleplayer. As I said before, his defense alone would put him inside top 15 in a weaker year like 1999 and he was a solid positive on offense as well (especially with secondary role).
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,384
And1: 9,928
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#22 » by penbeast0 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 1:47 pm

B-Mitch 30 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:I normally emphasize RS over PS more than most posters but with the shortened and messed up season, this season I have to look more fully at playoff runs.[/b]

I feel like if anything, the regular season matters more than usual, since each game is more important at determining playoff seeding.


Sample size issue basically; also it was a serious mess in terms of organization/planning/etc. at the beginning from what I remember.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
User avatar
jjgp111292
Pro Prospect
Posts: 766
And1: 594
Joined: Jun 29, 2012

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#23 » by jjgp111292 » Fri Dec 20, 2024 2:51 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
B-Mitch 30 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:I normally emphasize RS over PS more than most posters but with the shortened and messed up season, this season I have to look more fully at playoff runs.[/b]

I feel like if anything, the regular season matters more than usual, since each game is more important at determining playoff seeding.


Sample size issue basically; also it was a serious mess in terms of organization/planning/etc. at the beginning from what I remember.

Yup, plus people out of shape and getting injured - it's no surprise that an 8th seed would be able to make a finals run in a season like that. In a normal year the Knicks would've either had better health or those extra 32 games would've given them ample opportunity to get a higher seed.
And see basically them trick bitches get no dap
And see basically Redman album is no joke
And see basically I don't get caught up at my label
Cause I kill when they **** with food on my dinner table
Twitter
lessthanjake
Analyst
Posts: 3,287
And1: 2,977
Joined: Apr 13, 2013

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#24 » by lessthanjake » Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:51 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
Djoker wrote:As Narigo pointed out, Robinson not making the ballot is really interesting. Duncan was better but Robinson was better on defense and still a factor on offense. I don't see the gap between them as very large at all. And yes Robinson was the primary defender on Shaq and did a great job on him.

Shaq, Malone, Zo, Garnett all in the hunt to make the ballot for me.

This is a classic case of people focussing too much on advanced stats. I have been among the most prominent of the Admiral's supporters in this project, but by 99 he just wasn't that guy anymore. If the advanced stats say otherwise, they're wrong.

Go to YouTube, and watch the stretch of play I broke down in that linked thread, then tell me D.Rob was the best player on the Spurs or even close. Heck, go watch a bunch of 99 playoff games. That team was Duncan and not much else. D.Rob was closer to a role player than he was to being a star. I was rewatching games 1 and 5 of the finals just yesterday. It is painful how clunky, mechanical and slow D.Rob looks.

The same advanced stats thought D.Rob was an amazing defensive player in 03 too, even though the Spurs went 15-3 in games he missed and got substantially better on D after he retired.


I think you’re right that, by 1998-99, Robinson wasn’t as good as before. But I think it’s a big stretch to suggest he “was closer to a role player than he was to being a star.” And it doesn’t take “advanced stats”—by which I infer that you mean impact data—to demonstrate that. It’s clear from the box data too. For instance, Robinson was 4th in the NBA in BPM in the regular season (and actually close to 1st). He was 1st in the NBA in win shares per 48 mins in the regular season, and was 4th by raw win shares. In the playoffs, he was again 4th in BPM (and actually above Duncan). He was also 3rd in playoff win shares per 48 mins, and 2nd in raw win shares. He was objectively one of the top few players in the NBA in terms of box production. So it’s definitely not just the impact data telling us David Robinson was a great player still in 1998-99. I gather that your argument to the contrary is that the box-score data and the impact data must both be wrong because Robinson didn’t pass your eye test anymore. Beyond the fact that it seems like you may be basing this off of recently watching a couple of his less good games, I will also note that Robinson always moved a bit stiffly and the fact that by 1998-99 he wasn’t as good as before was reflected in his movement being even less fluid post-injury. So I think you’re noticing something that’s real, but I think Robinson can look pretty stiff and still be a really productive and impactful player, since he was massively impactful at his peak and still looked a bit stiff even back then.

All that said, I do think I’d take Duncan over Robinson this year. It’s not super straightforward, though. Their box-score data looks pretty comparable, with each of them being ahead of the other in certain metrics, and the biggest thing box-score data doesn’t take into account (defense) is an area that Robinson probably was superior in at that point. Meanwhile, their impact data in the RS looks very similar, with their raw RAPM that year being essentially equal (3.50 and 3.49, as per thebasketballdatabase RAPM). And Robinson’s impact data in the playoffs looks a lot better. If we just stopped there, I think we might conclude that Robinson was slightly superior. But, for me, it’s Duncan because Robinson couldn’t play the same minutes load that Duncan could at that point, and that does matter. That’s also reflected in the contemporaneous MVP voting that year, which had Duncan finishing higher than Robinson (and also winning Finals MVP). Basically, I think Robinson was similarly effective (and maybe even slightly more effective) as Duncan when on the court, but the fact that he only played something like 75-80% of the minutes that Duncan played makes Duncan the better POY candidate.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,295
And1: 5,630
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#25 » by One_and_Done » Fri Dec 20, 2024 8:45 pm

If you think it was even close I can only direct you back to the footage I cited. It wasn't close at all, regardless of how we land on labels like 'star' or 'role player'.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,130
And1: 5,975
Joined: Jul 24, 2022

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#26 » by AEnigma » Fri Dec 20, 2024 9:05 pm

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Dikembe Mutombo
2. Alonzo Mourning
3. David Robinson


Competitive ballot with improved health from the 1990s mainstays. Not penalising Robinson as much this time because his lower minutes did not cost the team, but he did trail every other contender — and I am not particularly sold on the idea that defenders like Dikembe or Mourning would not have looked similarly excellent playing alongside Duncan. To me, Robinson’s biggest advantage over those two (and Ewing) has always been his passing rather than his defence. And while Dikembe was the league’s top rebounder and Mourning was the league’s top shot-blocker, Robinson is “merely” excellent across the board while shouldering a lesser defensive load than both. Any one of these three would be a fine and justified winner though.

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Shaquille O’Neal
2. Grant Hill
3. Reggie Miller


Massive scoring gravity, prolific foul drawer — against the Lakers, Robinson averages 5 fouls per game in 28 minutes per game, and Hakeem averages 4.5 fouls per game in 31 minutes per game — and consistently top of the league offensive impact (in both RAPM and WOWY). With Jordan gone and no elite wings or guards immediately taking his place, this will be Shaq’s award for at least the next two years.

Never been impressed by Grant Hill — pitiful lack of scoring resilience, and nowhere near as impressive a passer as his reputation — but he takes second basically by default. I think he was a second-best offensive player in the regular season, and when everyone else is also dragged down in the postseason, he does not lose any ground relative to the competition.

Another conference finals for Reggie. Not an individual regular season standout, nor is this a particularly laudable postseason run. These Knicks are the worst team to beat Reggie since the 1992 Celtics, and Reggie is arguably outperformed by both Ray Allen and Allan Houston head-to-head. However, neither have overall better seasons than Reggie does, and the rest of the offensive players who arguably did — Malone, Kidd, Tim Hardaway — looked even worse in the postseason. This probably should have been Payton’s spot, but “missed postseason” needs a lot more to overcome “2-seed conference finalist”.

Player of the Year

1. Tim Duncan
2. Shaquille O’Neal
3. Alonzo Mourning
4. Karl Malone
5. Kevin Garnett


Duncan was definitely in the discussion for best player in the regular season — Robinson’s presence is what makes it less clear, as he is the best co-star of the other top four MVP contenders — but no one is particularly close in the postseason (and the two closest were first round exits). Outstanding title run. If Mourning had made the Finals, I could see some reductive RAPM votes go his way, but as is, Mourning was yet again taken out by Ewing and his superior Knicks team, so all that really leaves is Shaq skirting by what we know he will become next year.

However, this Shaq was not next year’s Shaq. This regular season is the nadir of his prime as a shotblocker and features his lowest minutes per game until Miami. In the postseason, he has his least efficient postseason since 1994 and overall as a Laker; yes, he did go directly from Hakeem (diminished but still strong defensively) to the greatest twin towers in league history, and he did an exemplary job of putting both opposing all-time centres in foul trouble, but the Lakers did nothing to separate themselves as a pseudo-contender. Entirely possible that the east had three teams capable of mounting a more serious threat to the Spurs — and being directly outperformed by Garnett’s hapless Timberwolves does not help Shaq’s case either.

Mourning would have been my pick for MVP in the regular season, and while I cannot argue he was better than Duncan or Shaq in the postseason, he did have what may have been his best ever series against the eventual conference champion Knicks (with Ewing present), losing by a point in the winner-take-all fifth game. Being a first option while also being arguably the league’s best defender is pretty rare and difficult, and players who have successfully done so — Duncan included — are among the best peaks we have. Mourning scored at 52.2% efficiency in his first 14 games of the lockout season and at 58.7% efficiency in his subsequent 32 games, all while setting a career high in block rate. He put up 25 points per 75 on 57% efficiency, while decreasing his own turnover rate, against a Knicks team that had held opponents to an average under 49% efficiency and held the collective rest of Mourning’s teammates to 47% efficiency. With slightly better team support, he likely makes the Finals and is a near unanimous second place.

Speaking of first option defensive anchors, I am impressed by how Garnett held up against a historic Spurs defence in the first round — especially because he dealt the Spurs one of their two postseason losses and comparatively outperformed Shaq. Quite possible he was already better than Malone, but I will give Malone the benefit of doubt one last time.
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,295
And1: 5,630
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#27 » by One_and_Done » Fri Dec 20, 2024 10:01 pm

I heard alot of people claiming D.Rob only played 28mpg vs the Lakers because he had to guard Shaq. How is that a positive? It means he was so overwhelmed guarding Shaq he couldn't stay on the floor more than 28mpg. When Duncan guarded Shaq on the 02 playoffs, he was playing 45mpg. Even 34 yr old Mutumbo was playing 42mpg vs Shaq in the 01 finals.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
capfan33
Pro Prospect
Posts: 874
And1: 751
Joined: May 21, 2022
 

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#28 » by capfan33 » Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:37 am

1. Duncan- Won title with a dominant run as the clear-cut player while also being the best player in the league, easy #1. I am somewhat sympathetic to Robinson despite not having great box score stats, but ultimately I don't think his defense is enough to overcome his mediocre offensive production given his defense didn't translate well to the playoffs pre-Duncan. As such, he will not be in my top 5, would consider 6th or 7th.
2. Shaq- Definitively in his prime leading the Lakers to the 2nd best offense in the league despite missing 30 games while Kobe was still finding his way. Would've liked for him to be more competitive against the Spurs but I think he's clearly the 2nd best player in the league and other candidate's playoff runs aren't moving enough for me.
3. Mourning- Had an excellent regular season winning a very justifiable DPOY and then almost beat the eventual finalists Knicks with an incredible individual series despite having pretty minimal support. I definitely think that series is the most impressive left of the remaining candidates except for perhaps KG so it goes 3rd.
4. Garnett- Already an all-world defender and managed to somehow take a game off the Spurs with very little help while arguably outplaying Duncan. While it feels a bit early, compared to habitual underpeformer Malone who once again underperformed this year, I'm fine putting him 4th.
5. Malone- Could go Hill here but Malone went much farther and that gives him a decided edge as it wasn't like Hill set the world on fire with his series.
DirtyDez
Suns Forum College Scout
Posts: 17,172
And1: 6,905
Joined: Jun 25, 2009
Location: the Arizona desert

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#29 » by DirtyDez » Sat Dec 21, 2024 4:10 am

I know 99’ is one of, if not the most irrelevant season in modern NBA history but how the hell did Malone win MVP that year? Thought everyone had Malone/Jazz fatigue by then.
fromthetop321 wrote:I got Lebron number 1, he is also leading defensive player of the year. Curry's game still reminds me of Jeremy Lin to much.
DCasey91
General Manager
Posts: 9,526
And1: 5,767
Joined: Dec 15, 2020
   

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#30 » by DCasey91 » Sat Dec 21, 2024 4:23 am

DirtyDez wrote:I know 99’ is one of, if not the most irrelevant season in modern NBA history but how the hell did Malone win MVP that year? Thought everyone had Malone/Jazz fatigue by then.


He got 44 1st
Mourning got 36 1st
And Duncan got 30

Interestingly Shaq only got one 1st place pretty much best offensive player in the regular on second best offensive team
Li WenWen is the GOAT
Djoker
Starter
Posts: 2,257
And1: 1,979
Joined: Sep 12, 2015
 

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#31 » by Djoker » Sat Dec 21, 2024 3:45 pm

VOTING POST

POY

1. Tim Duncan - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Finals MVP. Easy choice. Led the Spurs to a dominating title behind strong two-way play in the PS. Grew quite a lot since his rookie year though not yet a defensive monster he would become; despite their historic defense allowing just 46.2 %TS and -7.2 DRtg, the Spurs were actually 1.2 points better on D with Timmy off the court. Also not a hugely impressive RS which prevents this from being an all-time great campaign but still good enough to finish #1 here with the next two guys having off years. Averaged 21.7/11.4/2.4 on 54.1 %TS (+3.0 rTS) in the RS then 23.2/11.5/2.8 on 57.3 %TS (+7.1 rTS) in the PS.

2. Shaquille O'Neal - 2nd Team All-NBA. At the end of the RS considering he didn't miss games, he was in the running for the #1 spot considering his huge offensive impact. However, he laid an egg against the Spurs in the PS as his Lakers got inexcusably swept with Shaq unable to leave his imprint on either end of the floor. Sheer dominance for the rest of the year lands him at #2 for me because the guys just behind of him produced much worse offensively. Averaged 26.3/10.7/2.3 on 58.4 %TS (+7.3 rTS) in the RS then 26.6/11.6/2.3 on 51.5 %TS (+3.3 rTS) in the PS.

3. Karl Malone - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. MVP. Malone had a good RS leading the Jazz to the best record (tied with Spurs) but then proceeded to really struggle in the PS. Portland actually had slightly higher SRS so the Jazz weren't really upset but Malone's performance left a lot to be desired. And compared to Shaq, I find his RS less impressive as well. With Malone in this year, it's a wide range and he can be argued even lower here or perhaps even completely off the ballot. He averaged 23.8/9.4/4.1 on 57.7 %TS (+6.6 rTS) in the RS then 21.8/11.3/4.7 on 49.2 %TS (-0.6 rTS) in the PS.

4. David Robinson - No RS accolades because of reduced minutes but Robinson was the defensive anchor of the historic Spurs defense. He also stepped up in the PS as a notable #2 option to Duncan and helped the Spurs capture their first championship in franchise history. Offensively he was within striking distance of Zo and KG and I find his defense more impressive. Averaged 15.8/10.0/2.1 on 56.4 %TS (+5.3 rTS) in the RS then 15.6/9.9/2.5 on 56.3 %TS (+6.1 rTS) in the PS.

5. Alonzo Mourning - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Zo was quickly becoming an all-time great defensive anchor with Miami posting several strong seasons under his tutelage. Ultimately, Zo wasn't able to carry his team on offense in the PS and they lost in Round 1 and so can't quite punch with the big boys here and just barely but deservedly makes the ballot. Averaged 20.1/11.0/1.6 on 56.3 %TS (+5.2 rTS) in the RS then 21.6/8.2/0.8 on 57.1 %TS (+8.3 rTS) in the PS.

HM:

Kevin Garnett - 3rd Team All-NBA. Great defensive player. Gave Duncan a strong challenge in Round 1, arguably outplaying him individually.

OPOY

1. Shaquille O'Neal - Anchored the #2 offense. Huge gravity and physical presence down low that impacts the game more than stats show.

2. Reggie Miller - Main contributor to the #1 offense.

3. Karl Malone - Declining numbers in both RS and PS. Still a strong scorer and good passer.

DPOY

1. David Robinson - Main contributor to the historic Spurs defense. Demonstrated his worth in the PS as well. Great paint protector.

2. Dikembe Mutombo - Anchored the #2 defense on the Hawks. Great paint protector.

3. Alonzo Mourning - Miami only the #8 defense. Actual DPOY winner. Great paint protector.

HM: Tim Duncan
User avatar
homecourtloss
RealGM
Posts: 11,453
And1: 18,850
Joined: Dec 29, 2012

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#32 » by homecourtloss » Sat Dec 21, 2024 5:05 pm

1998-1999 RPoY votes:

1. Duncan. Clearly the driver of what would become a consistent winning machine. I already thought he showed best on the world quality in his rookie year but now cements it.
2. Shaq. Easily could have been poy last year. I thought he had a drop in motor this year that would continue but it would be ameliorated with an improved offensive arsenal and reading of the game.Missed games even in a shortened season.
3. Zo Mourning. Has a highly underrated two way stretch between 1997-1999. Great defensive instincts, physicality, motor. Became much better reading defenses on offense.
4. Karl Malone. Didn’t deserve MVP though could have been in 1998. I think his defensive reading of the game is underrated—this IQ helped him stay a plus defender even while he lost speed and athleticism and burst.
5. KG. You could see from the get-go the type of impact this impact titan wouls have. He held up surprisingly well vs. the Spurs’ juggernaut defense.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,130
And1: 5,975
Joined: Jul 24, 2022

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#33 » by AEnigma » Sat Dec 21, 2024 7:07 pm

capfan33 wrote:1. Duncan
2. Shaq
3. Mourning
4. Garnett
5. Malone

First two are slam dunks. Mourning's incredible regular season effort is enough for third despite the short playoff run, and after that while it's a bit premature, I strongly prefer Garnett to Malone generally, and as such will give him the edge for now.

Not sure whether you were already planning to add more, but as is this ballot needs more reasoning to be counted.
Cavsfansince84
RealGM
Posts: 15,030
And1: 11,533
Joined: Jun 13, 2017
   

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#34 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sat Dec 21, 2024 8:43 pm

DirtyDez wrote:I know 99’ is one of, if not the most irrelevant season in modern NBA history but how the hell did Malone win MVP that year? Thought everyone had Malone/Jazz fatigue by then.


With MJ gone he had by far the most star power behind his name plus the Jazz were tied for the best record in the league. Easy to see how he got it imo though I think Duncan obviously had a great case as well. I don't think Jazz fatigue was a real thing with voters either. If anything a lot of voters probably figured that Malone deserved another mvp as a sort of career achievement award.
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,933
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#35 » by OhayoKD » Sat Dec 21, 2024 11:35 pm

Voting Post

This should be unanimous imo.

1. Tim Duncan

Let's address the reasoning behind people thinking maybe it shouldn't be.
Narigo wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Wasnt Robinson the primary defender for Shaq? He was instrumental in slowing Shaq down that series. Robinson also looks better than Duncan in impact stats and box score metrics. Duncan was clearly the best offensive player of the two. But they did win off their defense in which Robinson was defintely the best defender based off the metrics we have such as RAPM and on/off. Also Robinson on-off looks better in the playoffs in comparison to Duncan

The S in Metrics and "box-stats" overall is doing alot of work here. What favors Robinson is what we see over a few minutes when the two aren't on the floor. The other stuff isn't meaningfully different than using this:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=116116492#p116116492

Spoiler:
During the Spurs’ first 40 defensive possessions, I gave Duncan, 21 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 4. Robinson was given 16 PPs as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 8 and ineffective in 6. Both had an irrational avoidance. When they shared the court Duncan and Robinson had 17 PPs each with Duncan being deemed effective in 4 and Robinson being deemed effective in 8. Both were deemed ineffective in 4. Robinson additionally had 1 IA

Over 37 possessions Duncan averaged .57 PPs, 0.16 EPPs, 0.11 IPPs, and 0.03 IAs.

Over 31 possessions Robinson averaged 0.58 PPs, 0.26 EPPs, 0.13 IPPs. 0.32 IAs.


And yeah, any box-score or impact hybrid using these inputs can easily end up favoring Duncan because again, box-scores are glorified eye-tests
Spoiler:
They're the same type of data. Humans choose what to count and then put weights on what they've counted, That decades were spent enshrining a narrow set of approaches as objectively valuable does not magically give the formulas and inputs you prefer inherent value and pretending it does would get you discredited in any space with an ounce of serious academic rigor.

Beyond the extent you can justify the approach or weightings vs approaches/weightings that favor alternative players, your formulas are not legitimate evidence.

IBM of course is not a few games, Lebronny's tracking covers multiple years of full playoff runs. If sample size is the issue, then the solution is to increase the sample, not keep reinforcing a set of priors that have never been seriously tested because they produce outputs you find convenient.


Perhaps in an absolute vacuum of alternative information some weight should be afforded that a consensus of inputs humans decided to get a large sample of yielded an output, but we don't live in that vacuum:

Spoiler:
Here are the incredible accomplishments of the Jason Kidd suns.

2000:
-> only team to fail to take 2 games from the 2000 Lakers who they lost to by 9 and [/b]10[/] more points than the +6 trailblazers and the +4 pacers. They lost by +0.4 less than the +3 Kings losing by about 5 more points than everyone else who played the Lakers on average. Just going off the Laker's regular season rating they were at +0.8 psrs.[/quote]
They lost to this team n a series Jason Kidd barely played


I'd say the Spurs going from 15-2 to 1-3 (facing injured fodder) says more about Duncan's impact than how the team happened to do without him for a few minutes here and there. I also think it says more about the two Duncan is trusted to average 8 more minutes, 9 more in the postseason, and Drob's minutes going down coincides with the Spurs improving in both the RS and the playoffs (by a big 4-point margin for those who value Pythagorean wins.)

And yeah, small sample and all, it doesn't hurt that when we look beyond at the fraction of possessions either happened to touch the ball last while their team was defending, Duncan doesn't look much less productive defensively.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Duncan is likelier than not best player on his team.

2. Shaq

The league's best scorer and creator and we're a year away from one of the best regular-season signals ever(though it looks alot worse if the "with" is replaced with postseason results). Gets swept by my #1 and I'm unsure there's a big help advantage but I have a hard time selling myself on the idea someone besides Duncan else played better for more than a series(He's #3). The Lakers also go at a 50-win pace in the regular season with several key injuries.

3. Garnett

He's the data-ball darling until Lebron takes flight. He's a (small sample) WOWY darling until Lebron takes flight, and he notches one of two losses for my #1 while plausibly outplaying him over those 5 games. Oh and he does it without his team's #2. Actually that .500 record the Wolves put up in the regular season comes with 3 of 4 of his starting teammates missing half the season. 2 of the 4 including the would be #2 missing 2/3rds of it. These 3 are the clear best of the next decade until the sport's best non-big (ever) starts winning MVPs. But even a year early I think they're their own class.

4. Mourning

Impressive team performance with an almost 60ish win pace rs team and then a narrow loss to a Knicks team that made a final (and inflicted the other loss on san-antonio) without their best player. Only hold up is we have a big sample of missed games last year where the Heat were unaffected by his absence. He's the minutes lead now, and a smaller signal for this year paints him more favorably, but he isn't as obviously essential to his team as the top 3 and I don't think a respectable first round loss overcomes that.

5. Karl Malone

He's probably top 3 if I only went by the regular-season. But the playoffs matter too imo.

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Shaq
2. Grant Hill
3. Tim Duncan

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Alonzo Mourning
2. David Robinson
3. Kevin Garnett
Paulluxx9000
Ballboy
Posts: 30
And1: 56
Joined: Feb 21, 2024
       

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#36 » by Paulluxx9000 » Sun Dec 22, 2024 2:37 am

1 Tim Duncan
2 David Robinson
3 Karl Malone
4 Shaq
5 Rasheed Wallace
I said this last thread
Spoiler:
Tim Duncan. You could say he was already the best player. You could. Really. He’s that good. He can pop, he can pass, he can block, he can step out and stop. He needs a little time to figure it out but man, it’s only a little. KG, Shaq, Duncan. Side by side by side in their primes. That’s just incredible. I’m a Duncan over Hakeem guy. No he didn’t move as much. No he didn’t spin like a ballerina. But he was there, where he needed to be, whenever he needed to be, again and again and again and again and again. Bowens. Robinson. Manu. Tika Taka. Twin Towers. No matter what Duncan was there. On and off, placed in a straight jacket. Given little privilege over the guy seated at the end of he bench. Duncan didn’t get to be an icon. But he was always there all the same. He’s a monster to score on. He’s a monster to defend. Shaq is shaq but if there was no shaq Duncan would be next. Triples and doubles galore. And he can pass it, really pass it. Not just praying on neanderthal defensive schemes like the Jordans and Hakeems, but make for others when making is hard.
And you never want to try him at the basket. Unless you’re shaq. And like the tortoise vs the hare, even the quick and fast will run into trouble if they confuse Mr.Duncan as some statue. He’s not the full thing but he’s already pretty close. He’s the best of his era. And when he faces Malone he might already be BITW.

No maybe no doubts. He’s the best.
He’ll get better no doubt. He has work to do containing penetration. Work to do as using his unusual ball control to turn doubles into near triples and work to do timing when he jumps. But the key qualities are all there and the Spurs win with what was close to about any team ever as a 2 man team.
And the 2nd man. He needs more respect. I think people have a little image in their head of this slow lumbering lanky Shaq but Drob reaches out to the key almost as much as Duncan when he plays. He passes better out of doubles at the post because with Duncan you don’t need such an eloquent post-game. He can handle the rock. He can board. Yes he doesn’t play so much but when he does he’s the best defender on the floor for the best defense in the league. Duncan’s not far behind but he’s behind even if you look at the accumulative play. Duncan isn’t a DPOY yet. He’s elite. And with what he can do on the other end that’s more than enough. But Robinson is the best. Protects better than Mourning, moves like Duncan and he can shoot and pass. He’s not Pippen or Kobe but he’s very good. If they just had a Ho Grant or Fisher the Spurs might have been pushing for 15-0.
Malone suffers in the playoffs considerably
Spoiler:
Malone is underrated maybe because of the horrible things he did outside of basketball but in the basketball court he’s alot better than people give credit for. Scores in bunches and those bunches are largely self created. Yeah he’s fed by Stockton but Stockton is really just hitting the cracks Malone is damaging the defense with. He’s also an underrated defensively. People think it’s all blocks for bigs but block or no block you don’t try to take it in if Malone’s waiting for you. And Malone usually is waiting for you, at the right spot, at the right time, and when he’s not waiting on you, he’s letting you do your worst on him at the post, and he can even stretch out a bit to the perimeter. Not like Hakeem but still. On top of that for the whole season and 3 rounds of the playoffs he’s great on offense too. He’s not Shaq but he’s the next most Shaq-like thing. Bending defenses and then usually breaking them with good passing or just taking it in himself. Yeah yeah, the finals. Finals underperformance doesn’t prevent him from being great prior to the finals and way better than Jordan defensively and Hakeem offensively.[.spoiler]
He’s the 2nd in the league still in my mind but he plays much too poorly in the postseason for me to give him the grace I usually give. And when it happens in 97 and 99 I can’t say it’s a nitpick.
[spoiler]This is for the Diesel. He misses so many games and it just matter because wow. No one and I mean no one twists a defense like Shaq. Heavy but quick. Big and fast. You must double shaq. If not triple him. His only weakness is someone usually needs to bring him the ball but wow is it worth it. And now he’s learnt how to pass. The only knock is his defense and it’s a knock. So much so the old fossil of an offense chicago took out of it’s misery in the finals worked like a charm. But Duncan’s still a year off. And Jordan isn’t even a top 3 reason why Chicago is a perimeter buzzsaw.

Defense costs him here. Duncan, Robinson, Malone, Rasheed, Zo, KG. It’s the year of two-ways and Shaq still greatly resembles a one-way, especially in the postseason. Next year he becomes his best self. He also isn’t using that pull he has on defenses as much as he did this year imo.
Garnett’s precursor. Incredible at the rim. Can guard 1-5 and can shoot. That last part is missed for this era. Shot-blocking compresses. They said it in the final though I don’t remember who. Rasheed stretches. He stretched Malone. He broke peak apex goliath Shaq like a rubber band pulled by a chimpanzee. And he doesn’t need to compress at his basket. A matchup nightmare. Even for the
B-Mitch 30
Sophomore
Posts: 156
And1: 76
Joined: May 25, 2024
         

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#37 » by B-Mitch 30 » Sun Dec 22, 2024 6:57 am

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Tim Duncan

The Spurs offense was unspectacular, but well rounded this season, being in the top 16 of eFG, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding, and free throws per field goal attempt. However, they improved in the playoffs, as Duncan led the team in points and offensive rebounds, while being second in assists, as he won his first championship.

2. Grant Hill

Hill had a superb season, leading the Pistons in points and assists on fine efficiency, and being a good rebounder. Similar to the Spurs, the team was in the top 15 of eFG, offensive rebounds, and free throws per field goal attempt, while their turnover percentage was bad, but not bottom of the barrel. Though Hill lost in the first round, it seems clear that the team wouldn’t have even made the playoffs without him.

3. Arvydas Sabonis

The Trail Blazers offense was even more well rounded than the Spurs, being in the top 13 of the aforementioned stats, with the team managing to reach the Conference Finals. Sabonis was the best player on the Blazers, being one of their most efficient scorers, and 2nd on the team in assists and offensive rebounds, despite his low amount of minutes.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Dikembe Mutombo

The Hawks had one of the best defenses in the league, with their only real weakness being a lack of turnovers. Dikembe was clearly the catalyst behind that, being 1st in defensive rebounds and still one of the best shot blockers in the NBA.

2. Alonzo Mourning

The Heat were either the same or a bit worse than the Hawks in every defensive stat, but were still extremely good. Unlike the previous two seasons, Mourning didn’t miss any significant time, and was 1st in blocks and 11th in defensive rebounds.

3. Tim Duncan

The Spurs defense was also very good, and Duncan definitely factored into that more than David Robinson, playing 7 more minutes per game than him, and leading them in blocks and defensive rebounds. However, Robinson was clearly still a very good player, so I’m going to penalize Timmy a bit.

Player of the Year

1. Tim Duncan

Obviously the best offensive player and third best defender wins this.

2. Alonzo Mourning

In addition to his defense, Mourning was an efficient 20 points per game man, and nearly beat the eventual Eastern Conference champion in the playoffs.

3. Arvydas Sabonis

Besides their excellent offense, the Trailblazers had one of the league’s best defenses, and once again Sabonis was the best defensive rebounder and shot blocker on the team despite his limited minutes, allowing him to provide value even when his efficiency declined in the playoffs.

4. Dikembe Mutombo

Dikembe wasn’t the offensive player Mourning was, but the Hawks were in the top 4 of offensive rebounding and fouls per field goal attempt, while being 12th in turnover percentage. Their only weakness was eFG, as Dikembe was literally the only starter who played in over 36 games who had a positive true shooting percentage. The man was clearly the most important player on the Hawks by far.

5. Larry Johnson

Johnson was probably the best player on the surprise Conference champion Knicks, as Patrick Ewing missed significant time with an achilles problem. Johnson was one of only two starters to have a positive eFG, and managed to stay somewhat efficient in the playoffs, as well as hitting a game winning four point play in the Conference Finals.
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,295
And1: 5,630
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#38 » by One_and_Done » Sun Dec 22, 2024 8:14 am

Go watch the 99 finals and tell me how LJ was even the best Knick. He wasn't. He wasn't even the 2nd best Knick. Sabonis on here is equally bizarre, he wasn't even the best Blazer, or even close.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
ShaqAttac
Rookie
Posts: 1,189
And1: 370
Joined: Oct 18, 2022

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#39 » by ShaqAttac » Sun Dec 22, 2024 8:27 am

DUNCAN
Gets the chip and fmvp. Best impact with great d and great O. TS goes up big in pos and sas 15-2.

KG
carry team in rs and then d's up timmy d and gets a dub vs the champs.

ZO
carries in RS and PO. scores 20 and also great D. Lose to NY but NY make finals without ewing and ZO almost wins.

SHAQ
cant be letting duncan cook u on o like that. mega choke.

MALONE
Wins MVP but chokes even worse than Shaq
ShaqAttac
Rookie
Posts: 1,189
And1: 370
Joined: Oct 18, 2022

Re: Retro Player of the Year 1998-99 UPDATE 

Post#40 » by ShaqAttac » Sun Dec 22, 2024 8:27 am

One_and_Done wrote:Go watch the 99 finals and tell me how LJ was even the best Knick. He wasn't. He wasn't even the 2nd best Knick. Sabonis on here is equally bizarre, he wasn't even the best Blazer, or even close.

why u keep tellin ppl to watch stuff u never watched

Return to Player Comparisons