Ace Bailey

[The-Power]

How many opportunities has he really had to get assists?

He touches the ball a ton and has an opportunity to get an assist every single time. He just either shoots it or passes it back without creating an advantage almost every time.

He doesnt have the supporting cast that Cooper has. Aside from Harper there isn't a lot of talent there. In order to get an assist your teammate has to hit the shot so by definition the sample size will be much smaller than when comparing to shot attempts.

Duke converts 46.3% of their shots, Rutgers 45.7%. In other words, at the same rate. Also, players on much worse teams still produce more assists than he does. The excuses you make to explain away an incredibly obvious flaw in Bailey's game are just so blatant. Of course, you are also free to show me the dozens of good shots he created for his teammates that they just proceeded to miss. But you won't be able to do that because the problem is indeed not his teammates efficiency but Bailey's inability to create.

I would have a lot more respect for your takes if you just admitted that he sucks as a shot creator and that it is a concern, but that you still like him for various reasons. That's a fine take even if I happened to disagree with the specifics. As it stands, you simply come across as very biased in your evaluations and interpretations.

[tontoz]

How many opportunities has he really had to get assists?

He touches the ball a ton and has an opportunity to get an assist every single time. He just either shoots it or passes it back without creating an advantage almost every time.

He doesnt have the supporting cast that Cooper has. Aside from Harper there isn't a lot of talent there. In order to get an assist your teammate has to hit the shot so by definition the sample size will be much smaller than when comparing to shot attempts.

Duke converts 46.3% of their shots, Rutgers 45.7%. In other words, at the same rate. Also, players on much worse teams still produce more assists than he does. The excuses you make to explain away an incredibly obvious flaw in Bailey's game are just so blatant. Of course, you are also free to show me the dozens of good shots he created for his teammates that they just proceeded to miss. But you won't be able to do that because the problem is indeed not his teammates efficiency but Bailey's inability to create.

I would have a lot more respect for your takes if you just admitted that he sucks as a shot creator and that it is a concern, but that you still like him for various reasons. That's a fine take even if I happened to disagree with the specifics. As it stands, you simply come across as very biased in your evaluations and interpretations.

We're talking about 8 games from a guy who is playing off ball. It isn't that unusual for off ball players to have more turnovers than assists.

Most of his points last game came from off ball cuts to the basket for layups or dunks. Should he have passed up those opportunities? Of course not.

It isn't a lack of playmaking that limits the effectiveness of MPJ. His main problem is defense. He also seems reluctant to take it to the basket, possibly because of the back surgeries that put his career at risk. Plus he doesn't seem very effective shooting off the dribble.

I am more concerned about Bailey's love of contested 2s as opposed to catch and shoot 3s. That is a big problem for wizards rookie Carrington who is very good shooting off the dribble but struggles off the catch.

Not everyone has to be a playmaker. Klay averaged only 2 assists for his career on a dynasty. Nobody cares.

[CptCrunch]

Another trash burger game from Ace today, 1-8 from FT, 0 AST, 4 turnovers.

I'm going to post some knowledge below, read it if one wishes to learn something today.

Stats don't lie, but some fans just don't understand them at all. Just because one player beat the odds doesn't mean the whole predictive model is wrong. Sure, maybe that unicorn prospect came out of college with terrible metrics and still made it in the NBA - but that's the rare exception, not the standard outcome. Most players with low BPM and questionable basketball IQ are gonna wash out, plain and simple. These armchair scouts see one outlier and suddenly think one has discovered some profound insight.

No, that's not how probability works. One must understand statistical trends before making sweeping claims about player potential. One exceptional case doesn't invalidate years of BPM tracked developmental data.

[tontoz]

Another trash burger game from Ace today, 1-8 from FT, 0 AST, 4 turnovers.

I'm going to post some knowledge below, read it if one wishes to learn something today.

Stats don't lie, but some fans just don't understand them at all. Just because one player beat the odds doesn't mean the whole predictive model is wrong. Sure, maybe that unicorn prospect came out of college with terrible metrics and still made it in the NBA - but that's the rare exception, not the standard outcome. Most players with low BPM and questionable basketball IQ are gonna wash out, plain and simple. These armchair scouts see one outlier and suddenly think one has discovered some profound insight.

No, that's not how probability works. One must understand statistical trends before making sweeping claims about player potential. One exceptional case doesn't invalidate years of BPM tracked developmental data.

Pretty selective which the stats you look at. The rest of the team had only 7 assists and 11 turnovers. Harper is considered a top 2 pick and he had 2 assists and 4 turnovers. Might be more going on there than just Ace.

The 1-8 from the foul line was pretty cringe, like a golfer getting the yips, but his EFG was 67%. 21/7

One of his turnovers was a dubious offensive foul. Another was a carry. One was a pass into a tight window to a guy cutting under the rim. Only one was just a careless, dumb turnover.

[HadAnEffectHere]

This guy's athleticism was wildly overrated entering college, I'm not sure he's athletic as MPJ after his third back surgery. Just so uncoordinated and such a terrible first step.

[The Moose]

Verging on negative BPM territory

[CptCrunch]

Ace is a stiff but great athlete, inefficient at scoring, cannot create for others.

You combine the worst aspects of Wiggins, MPJ, Jabari Smith into one player and pray really hard he is gonna work out. That's is what Ace is.

His chances of being a positive player is worse than his changes of being a complete wash out by year 3.

0.3 **** Bee Pea Eem.

[tontoz]

He won't be a washout because of his size, athleticism and jumper. However his inability to finish inside is a big problem considering his size.

I thought he made some good passes last game but struggling to finish inside against Princeton is bad. They have no shot blocking.

[XTC]

Genuine question...

When was thr last time a player with such a low PER and BPM became a star in the NBA? Obviously PER and BPM doesn't tell you who isnt going to be a star, or else Tyler Hansbrough would have been a star, but I certainly do think it does tell you who isnt good.

A PER of 16.4, a BPM of 0.9, and a TS% of 51.9 is disgusting. His advanced numbers are more in line with guys like Cam Reddish and Jalen Hood Schifino than most recent top prospects. Unless he turns it around he's firmly on my do not draft list.

[Jstock12]

Genuine question...

When was thr last time a player with such a low PER and BPM became a star in the NBA? Obviously PER and BPM doesn't tell you who isnt going to be a star, or else Tyler Hansbrough would have been a star, but I certainly do think it does tell you who isnt good.

A PER of 16.4, a BPM of 0.9, and a TS% of 51.9 is disgusting. His advanced numbers are more in line with guys like Cam Reddish and Jalen Hood Schifino than most recent top prospects. Unless he turns it around he's firmly on my do not draft list.

I think you're mostly right. Very few guys post these type of low stats as freshmen and then go on to become star players in the NBA. One of the recent exceptions that I found was Jalen Williams who had a 1.7 bpm & 13.8 PER as a freshman at Santa Clara.

[babyjax13]

He won't be a washout because of his size, athleticism and jumper. However his inability to finish inside is a big problem considering his size.

I thought he made some good passes last game but struggling to finish inside against Princeton is bad. They have no shot blocking.

We said that about Wesley Johnson.

I think Ace looks more athletic, fluid, and intelligent on defense than on offense and it is a product of modeling his game after Carmelo, but forgetting that Melo could pass. He gets himself into terrible situations and throws horrible, panicked bailout passes. I still think he's worth a top 10 pick because I buy the shot, and the defense in the college games I've watched tells me he gives effort. I've actually liked him much more than in high school bc the two high school games I watched he was a selfish, inefficient chucker who could barely move and kept grabbing his knee. I'm not seeing that right now. But in the NBA he's going to get slapped hard his rookie year. He has to learn to do all his scoring off ball (he's reasonably good at cutting to the rim, another reason I like him more now) and leverage that elite size and amazing shot window. He should be watching MPJ, Klay, and post-Sonics Ray Allen. Not modeling his game after Melo. I have not moved him down significantly yet, but I do expect some guys to move above him (probably Asa Newell and one of Jakucionis or Demin, already have the obvious suspects and Tre Johnson over him).

[azcatz11]

Idk how tall is he right now but he's going to grow to maybe 6'11. He's not done growing. He kind of reminds me of a way worse Jabari Smith Jr but more athletic and a way worse shooter.

[JustBuzzin]

39 points looking like Rashard Lewis Jr

[CptCrunch]

Does not impress me one bit.

0 chance of being a positve player in the league.

[The Moose]

19 non rim 2pt attempts and zero assists

It’s hard to get excited even when he has ‘big’ games

[CptCrunch]

26 for 45 on the year on FT for 57%.

I'm not even convinced he is good at shooting.

Flukes in a bunch of really bad shots on hot streaks. His shooting split is still putrid this year which obviously is confirmed by that FT percentage.

[BigGargamel]

Does not impress me one bit.

0 chance of being a positve player in the league.

I really think some of you people have personal vendettas against certain college players. To say zero chance..you know that's just weird, right?

[FarBeyondDriven]

this is a bad Rutgers team and they didn't have Harper but still, 39 points with zero assists? This doesn't seem to be as good of a class as previously thought so I still can't see him going later than 3. 6'4" shooting guards like Johnson or 6'9" centers like Queen or the point guards with red flags likely aren't being taken over him.

I just have to think that with cleaner looks, better teammates and a wide open NBA that he won't need all of these high degree of difficulty shots. The fact that he hits so many of them is a good sign.

[JMAC3]

I watched the game, the talent is through the roof. He can handle the ball but to me it looks more like a strength issue on why he settles for outside jumpers, which at 18 yrs old is something I can probably live with. His rim protection was out of this world last night, 4 blocks and they were all highlights.

He has legit movement shooter abilities at 6-10, the archetype alone has a lot of value for a lot of teams. Whereas guys like Kasper, Egor, Tre Johnson are guys that need the ball more and might not be as natural fits on as many teams.

[tontoz]

I watched the game, the talent is through the roof. He can handle the ball but to me it looks more like a strength issue on why he settles for outside jumpers, which at 18 yrs old is something I can probably live with. His rim protection was out of this world last night, 4 blocks and they were all highlights.

He has legit movement shooter abilities at 6-10, the archetype alone has a lot of value for a lot of teams. Whereas guys like Kasper, Egor, Tre Johnson are guys that need the ball more and might not be as natural fits on as many teams.

I would say Tre is a better off ball scorer than Ace. He can shoot quick movement 3s off the catch routinely.