Official Ochai Agbaji Thread - Welcome to Toronto, Ochai!

[Saul Goodman]

Masai got me back on his side this season. Trading for Poetl was a bad move objectively and I thought the Siakam return was light initially but with his last two drafts and getting a guy like Ochai for the 30th pick he’s really back in his bag

[raptorforlife88]

I dont think many people would consider a 19 year old (at the time) lotto pick a diamond in the rough. On average the 13th pick has a 20% chance to be a star player, 35% chance to be a starter, 15% chance to be a roleplayer, and 30% chance to be a deep bench player.

I would say Gradey is currently in the roleplayer bucket, which isn't exactly a diamond in the rough for the 13th pick. If he ends up being an all star, I will definitely change my mind and I actually have those expectations for him, but for now he's a solid pick.

To get this a little more on track, the example used was Ochai, a 22 year old (at the time), 4 year college guy who was looking to be a waste of a roster spot, and was acquired for relatively nothing, and now is a solid roleplayer. I wouldn't put Gradey who was drafted last year into that category.

I remember this from years ago and I don't know how much that number is really holding there. Actually I would say it's remarkably inaccurate over the past 25 years.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/every-nba-number-13-overall-pick-ever

This is the list of the last 25 picks. Of them Jefferson, Olynyk, Lavine, Booker, Mitchell, Herro are probably the best players in the last 25 years.

Lavine, Booker and Mitchell are the only three of them that would qualify as stars and honestly calling Lavine a star is borderline because Chicago can basically hope to unload his contract for a second round pick at this point. So that's 8% stars? 12% if you're being generous? Jefferson and Herro are starters and maybe Herro is a little more than that. Not sure how anyone is getting to 55% stars/starters from there. There's probably more guys out of the league within 5 seasons then starters.

I see Gradey getting to the Jefferson/Herro level like I said which makes him one of the better picks of the last 25 years at 13th. I genuinely want you to look at that list and the players on it over a long 25 year sample there and tell me that you don't think so, or that 55% of the players in there are Star/Starter level.

Seriously take the list, give me 55% of the names on the list and then bunch Gradey in the "role players" bucket like you described. I'm curious to see where you're planting him based on that measurement.

Im not basing his roleplayer status against only 13th picks, that makes no sense. I'm basing his roleplayer status on his current production and capabilities.

Personally I think he has the potential to exceed Herro's level, but I'm not giving Masai a gold star for drafting potential. Gradey has played 83 career NBA games, we don't know if he's gonna be a steal, a bust, or an average player. Hell, Ochai might completely crash and burn when put on a good team, who knows. For now based on what he was acquired for, his production, his previous production, and his draft position, I would qualify that as a diamond in the rough. He has already surpassed the value of what we traded to get him.

Gradey is still a WIP, I'm not going to plan a parade quite yet. So no, I won't consider that in my statement.

That's fine about the role player bit, but you responded with those percentages and I pointed out that quite clearly its not the case that those percentage are in any way accurate. And that should cause you to reconsider what your expectation for that pick should be and what a success would be there.

Even if you considered him a role player, which I think is fair for his overall play, in terms of the expected value of the 13th pick based on the past 25 years of them he would exclusively based on his play so far still be like 10th out of 25. And that is with me putting him behind like Duren and Ed Davis and Markieelff Morris (who sucks) . You could put him behind Brandon Rush (ridiculous) and Sefalosha and he would still be better than more than half the picks made at 13. He's already better than the average pick there after his limited set of games. He ends the season at this level and makes a marginal improvement next year and he'll be better than 70% of those picks. He could have Luke Kennards career and that would still be true.

So you should count that, I don't think it's reasonable to really not. He's not going to bust barring a areer altering injury. There's no point counting tail outcomes. He looks good relative to other picks in his draft, he looks good relative to his value for his draft position as well.

Another measure which is less clear but valuable to think about is whether other teams would value Gradey in a trade. And I think they very likely would.

[raptorforlife88]

Collier being very possibly the single worst player playing a decent number of minutes this year certainly makes the deal even more palatable.

[Ell Curry]

Collier being very possibly the single worst player playing a decent number of minutes this year certainly makes the deal even more palatable.

I feel strongly Masai would not have picked Collier. Not his type. We presumably woulda picked Mogbo 2 picks earlier (don't see Scheierman either really, though not a firm no like Collier) and then my guess is Furphy (best advanced stats for any freshman who went in the draft after Walter) or maybe Klintman (rumours we looked at him last year) or Ighodaro, who can't score at all but is a center who can pass and is mobile so at least plays the right way and so seems closer to what we tend to look for in a center. Filipowski would have made sense too, just because it's so hard to find a shooting big man, and while obviously we took Mogbo over him, they actually fit together pretty logically as a backup 4/5 combo and a young replacement for Olynyk makes sense if you value that type of perimeter skilled big.

[Raps in 4]

Masai got me back on his side this season. Trading for Poetl was a bad move objectively and I thought the Siakam return was light initially but with his last two drafts and getting a guy like Ochai for the 30th pick he’s really back in his bag

This is what Masai is good at. He should have never gone down the treadmill route. Should have just played to his strengths and rebuilt after 2021.

[tecumseh18]

Breakout seasons for NBA players under age 25: Nine most improved

First-round picks outside the top 10

Ochai Agbaji
Age: 24 | SG, Toronto Raptors

Few players in the NBA have experienced more statistical ups and downs in the calendar year of 2024 than Agbaji. The 2022 No. 14 pick out of Kansas was a member of the Utah Jazz until a deadline trade sent him to Toronto in February. He finished as one of the lowest-performing players of the 2023-24 season, with an ugly 45.3 true shooting percentage (TS%) and a minus-5.2 estimated RAPTOR.

But with an offseason to adjust to his new team and coach Darko Rajakovic's system, Agbaji has been a radically more efficient version of himself, with an improved 63.1 TS%, 30th best in the league, while boosting his estimated RAPTOR at both ends of the court. In particular, Agbaji has one of the league's most improved 3-point percentages, going from 29.4% a season ago to a scorching 44.4% this season.

Key stat: Last season, 98% of NBA players had a better TS% than Agbaji. This season, he has turned the tables -- his mark is better than those of 86% of all active NBA players.

Similar metrics at the same age: Cam Johnson, 2019-20; Jake Layman, 2018-19; Aaron Nesmith, 2023-24

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/43094686/nba-players-age-25-breakout-season-2024-2025-cunningham-daniels-sochan

[Psubs]

I feel like he's falling back to reasonable %'s going forward. Maybe good trade bait, sell high with Jakobe able to guard the POA.

With Jakobe, Shead, Ochai and Davion seemingly good POA defenders, why is the Raptor defense so bad? Too many offensive rebounds? Not enough rim-protection?

[djsunyc]

I feel like he's falling back to reasonable %'s going forward. Maybe good trade bait, sell high with Jakobe able to guard the POA.

With Jakobe, Shead, Ochai and Davion seemingly good POA defenders, why is the Raptor defense so bad? Too many offensive rebounds? Not enough rim-protection?

turnovers and injuries

[TimeForChange]

I feel like he's falling back to reasonable %'s going forward. Maybe good trade bait, sell high with Jakobe able to guard the POA.

With Jakobe, Shead, Ochai and Davion seemingly good POA defenders, why is the Raptor defense so bad? Too many offensive rebounds? Not enough rim-protection?

Dick and RJ are extremely poor defenders and they play together a lot

[Wise80]

I feel like he's falling back to reasonable %'s going forward. Maybe good trade bait, sell high with Jakobe able to guard the POA.

With Jakobe, Shead, Ochai and Davion seemingly good POA defenders, why is the Raptor defense so bad? Too many offensive rebounds? Not enough rim-protection?

It's been awhile since we've had young guys play a lot of minutes. I forgot how many mistakes they make. That's the reason why we're bad defensively. Plus we have a lot of weak defenders. The games to evolved to think that our point of attack defenders are always going to be guarding that. Having Dick and RJ out there, Mogbo playing the 5, and all these young guys playing big minutes is a recipe for disaster.

[Thaddy]

I feel like he's falling back to reasonable %'s going forward. Maybe good trade bait, sell high with Jakobe able to guard the POA.

With Jakobe, Shead, Ochai and Davion seemingly good POA defenders, why is the Raptor defense so bad? Too many offensive rebounds? Not enough rim-protection?

It's been awhile since we've had young guys play a lot of minutes. I forgot how many mistakes they make. That's the reason why we're bad defensively. Plus we have a lot of weak defenders. The games to evolved to think that our point of attack defenders are always going to be guarding that. Having Dick and RJ out there, Mogbo playing the 5, and all these young guys playing big minutes is a recipe for disaster.

Less RJ and more three and defense. Dick has to be better or he should be on his way out even before Agbaji.

[Tripod]

Or maybe be patient with the 2nd year player who turned 21 1 month ago.

We all know Gradey is undersized strength wise. Gotta give him TIME to gain that strength. Man people are impatient.

[RoteSchroder]

Collier being very possibly the single worst player playing a decent number of minutes this year certainly makes the deal even more palatable.

I feel strongly Masai would not have picked Collier. Not his type. We presumably woulda picked Mogbo 2 picks earlier (don't see Scheierman either really, though not a firm no like Collier) and then my guess is Furphy (best advanced stats for any freshman who went in the draft after Walter) or maybe Klintman (rumours we looked at him last year) or Ighodaro, who can't score at all but is a center who can pass and is mobile so at least plays the right way and so seems closer to what we tend to look for in a center. Filipowski would have made sense too, just because it's so hard to find a shooting big man, and while obviously we took Mogbo over him, they actually fit together pretty logically as a backup 4/5 combo and a young replacement for Olynyk makes sense if you value that type of perimeter skilled big.

rumors were that they were arguing over Filip vs Mogbo at 31

I think most fans wrote off Furphy (maybe even management did) due to already having Gradey

I wonder if Jaylen Wells was ever on the radar

[Psubs]

Collier being very possibly the single worst player playing a decent number of minutes this year certainly makes the deal even more palatable.

I feel strongly Masai would not have picked Collier. Not his type. We presumably woulda picked Mogbo 2 picks earlier (don't see Scheierman either really, though not a firm no like Collier) and then my guess is Furphy (best advanced stats for any freshman who went in the draft after Walter) or maybe Klintman (rumours we looked at him last year) or Ighodaro, who can't score at all but is a center who can pass and is mobile so at least plays the right way and so seems closer to what we tend to look for in a center. Filipowski would have made sense too, just because it's so hard to find a shooting big man, and while obviously we took Mogbo over him, they actually fit together pretty logically as a backup 4/5 combo and a young replacement for Olynyk makes sense if you value that type of perimeter skilled big.

rumors were that they were arguing over Filip vs Mogbo at 31

I think most fans wrote off Furphy (maybe even management did) due to already having Gradey

I wonder if Jaylen Wells was ever on the radar

Battle is like a timid Jaylen Wells.

[Psubs]

I feel like he's falling back to reasonable %'s going forward. Maybe good trade bait, sell high with Jakobe able to guard the POA.

With Jakobe, Shead, Ochai and Davion seemingly good POA defenders, why is the Raptor defense so bad? Too many offensive rebounds? Not enough rim-protection?

It's been awhile since we've had young guys play a lot of minutes. I forgot how many mistakes they make. That's the reason why we're bad defensively. Plus we have a lot of weak defenders. The games to evolved to think that our point of attack defenders are always going to be guarding that. Having Dick and RJ out there, Mogbo playing the 5, and all these young guys playing big minutes is a recipe for disaster.

Mogbo is just too small. He's JYD 2.0 that gets more stocks.

[PushDaRock]

I feel like he's falling back to reasonable %'s going forward. Maybe good trade bait, sell high with Jakobe able to guard the POA.

With Jakobe, Shead, Ochai and Davion seemingly good POA defenders, why is the Raptor defense so bad? Too many offensive rebounds? Not enough rim-protection?

It's been awhile since we've had young guys play a lot of minutes. I forgot how many mistakes they make. That's the reason why we're bad defensively. Plus we have a lot of weak defenders. The games to evolved to think that our point of attack defenders are always going to be guarding that. Having Dick and RJ out there, Mogbo playing the 5, and all these young guys playing big minutes is a recipe for disaster.

Mogbo is just too small. He's JYD 2.0 that gets more stocks.

It seemed like they spent most of the development time before the season using him as more of a jumbo wing and that's kind of where he's looked at his best especially defensively. Then KO gets hurt and now Jak as well and he is back to playing as a small ball 5 exclusively. I think maybe eventually when he gets more experience and is able to process the game better from the back end that he can play minutes there but for right now it's clear it's not his ideal position currently but it's where the minutes are available right now.

[Ell Curry]

It's been awhile since we've had young guys play a lot of minutes. I forgot how many mistakes they make. That's the reason why we're bad defensively. Plus we have a lot of weak defenders. The games to evolved to think that our point of attack defenders are always going to be guarding that. Having Dick and RJ out there, Mogbo playing the 5, and all these young guys playing big minutes is a recipe for disaster.

Mogbo is just too small. He's JYD 2.0 that gets more stocks.

It seemed like they spent most of the development time before the season using him as more of a jumbo wing and that's kind of where he's looked at his best especially defensively. Then KO gets hurt and now Jak as well and he is back to playing as a small ball 5 exclusively. I think maybe eventually when he gets more experience and is able to process the game better from the back end that he can play minutes there but for right now it's clear it's not his ideal position currently but it's where the minutes are available right now.

I think long-term Mogbo makes sense here as Barnes' backup at the 4, giving the bench shooters (2 of Dick, Walter, Agbaji, one starts at the 2) some defensive help, screens and passing, like a discount bench version of Draymond for the Warriors shooters type of offence. We don't have our backup center or backup PG on the roster yet, those come in the next 2 drafts, along with a starting wing.

[WuTang_CMB]

He’s been playing with such confidence all season and been really decisive on the court which is what you want out of your young players. He has created a role for himself on both ends and proving he belongs in the league. Really nice to see and happy for him.

[LoveMyRaps]

Can't believe Masai found an OG replacement so easily... Ochai is the perfect 3&D player and will only get better. He should also be starting over Dick.

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[youngRAPZ]

Can't believe Masai found an OG replacement so easily... Ochai is the perfect 3&D player and will only get better. He should also be starting over Dick.

Read on Twitter

Why anyone would “want” to trade this guys is beyond me.