Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[Klomp]

I don’t like one-on-one comps, but for those who do, All Defense Alex Caruso just signed a four year extension, for $20 a year.

Jaden is also All Defense and got $26. However, Jaden’s deal is 5 years, he just turned 24 and 6-9. Caruso 6-4 and about to turn 31. I’d rather have McDaniels, $6 mil more for the extra upside. But I think they are comparable.

Unfortunately, Caruso might have just set NAW's next price.

Similar players, but NAW is much younger and is having a WAY better year.

Great point - I hadn’t thought of that. Yikes.

I will say that many times, teams don’t have cap space, so the most they can offer is the MLE. Often the original team uses their Bird rights offers a bit more, and it’s the highest offer. Next year, the non-tax MLE will be like $14.1. However, I will mention that the new apron rules affect this as well. If a team used their MLE on NAW, they will hard cap them at the apron, so that may discourage some buyers.

I’m hoping for under $15, assuming NAW doesn’t make an All Defense team.

Could it increase his potential trade value, since any team that acquires him also gets his Bird rights?

[Guest84]

While I would be open to gambling on Zion Williamson, the Second Apron rules pretty much nuke any pathway to making that happen, at least with Julius Randle.

Longshot for sure. I was just using him in comparison to Kawhi being mentioned above. Don't really want him either due to the lack of availability.

[minimus]

While I would be open to gambling on Zion Williamson, the Second Apron rules pretty much nuke any pathway to making that happen, at least with Julius Randle.

I cant agree more with new CBA on this.

[BlacJacMac]

Unfortunately, Caruso might have just set NAW's next price.

Similar players, but NAW is much younger and is having a WAY better year.

Great point - I hadn’t thought of that. Yikes.

I will say that many times, teams don’t have cap space, so the most they can offer is the MLE. Often the original team uses their Bird rights offers a bit more, and it’s the highest offer. Next year, the non-tax MLE will be like $14.1. However, I will mention that the new apron rules affect this as well. If a team used their MLE on NAW, they will hard cap them at the apron, so that may discourage some buyers.

I’m hoping for under $15, assuming NAW doesn’t make an All Defense team.

Could it increase his potential trade value, since any team that acquires him also gets his Bird rights?

Are we 100% sure we have them? I still haven't seen anything definitive saying we have his Full Bird and not his Early Bird.

I still think it seems wrong that we would've renounced his Bird Rights when we resigned him, bit that's been reported multiple places.

[Klomp]

Great point - I hadn’t thought of that. Yikes.

I will say that many times, teams don’t have cap space, so the most they can offer is the MLE. Often the original team uses their Bird rights offers a bit more, and it’s the highest offer. Next year, the non-tax MLE will be like $14.1. However, I will mention that the new apron rules affect this as well. If a team used their MLE on NAW, they will hard cap them at the apron, so that may discourage some buyers.

I’m hoping for under $15, assuming NAW doesn’t make an All Defense team.

Could it increase his potential trade value, since any team that acquires him also gets his Bird rights?

Are we 100% sure we have them? I still haven't seen anything definitive saying we have his Full Bird and not his Early Bird.

I still think it seems wrong that we would've renounced his Bird Rights when we resigned him, bit that's been reported multiple places.

He was literally signed using Bird rights in 2023. That comes from Keith Smith at Spotrac. Those don't just disappear.

I think there needs to be an education seminar on which sources to believe when it comes to the salary cap and who is just guessing.

[Note30]

We need two way talent and I don't think it's going to be easy to get. We kind of need to gamble as its not going to get better for the Wolves from here.

Thinking we need one big trade.

I know this is a bad idea from the get go, but I rather swing and miss on a known but unavailable talent then whats going on now.

3 team trade LAC/MIN/NOP

MIN out: Randle, DDV, McDaniels, Conley, TSJ, Miller, DET 1st, 2025 PHI pick
MIN in: Leonard, Murray, Derrick Jones Jr.

LAC out: Leonard, Jones Jr., Tucker
LAC in: Ingram, Randle, Miller

NOP out: Ingram, Murray
NOP in: McDaniels, Conley, Divencenzo, TSJ, Tucker, picks

Not sure what the trade markets for BI would be but, McDaniels seems like a cheaper younger version.

We take a huge risk on Kawhi but if he's around can change the level of this team and restore some faith around here.

Murray and BI is honestly the only piece here I think would be difficult but if BI really wants out I think this could work for the clippers as they get their picks back in 2026 and this could workout nicely if they have to rebuild.

The Pelicans would get McDaniels, they would plan their start for a tank for the next two years. Fire sale and start early.

Honestly this deal isnt great for the Pels but it clears their books and gives them a couple of more movable contracts around McD and DDV.

For us

Murray/Dillignham
Ant/NAW
Kawhi/Derrick Jones
Reid/Minott
Gobert/Garza

We basically gamble on Kawhi, but if healthy this would be somewhat closer to what we had last year. Jones Jr should be able to slide PF and can play the 3 well as we saw in the playoffs last year.

MIN adds $6.3 mil in salary. Apron Rules say they can’t add salary, plus they can’t aggregate salaries, so they can’t add salaries together to trade for a $49 mil Kawhi.

MIN either needs to focus on players that make less than any individual player they send out, or complete a deal where they lose $10 mil in salary after the deal and drop below the apron.

I know everyone has their favorite Trade Checker, but I’d encourage people to only use Spotrac’s checker right now, until the other ones include apron rules.

Was using Fanspo. Thanks for the recommendation

[shrink]

I know everyone has their favorite Trade Checker, but I’d encourage people to only use Spotrac’s checker right now, until the other ones include apron rules.

Was using Fanspo. Thanks for the recommendation

And thanks for taking it so well. I didn’t mean it as a slam. I just feel bad when people work hard trying to put together a balanced trade, and a checker lies to them and tells them it’s legal.

[shangrila]

We need two way talent and I don't think it's going to be easy to get. We kind of need to gamble as its not going to get better for the Wolves from here.

Thinking we need one big trade.

I know this is a bad idea from the get go, but I rather swing and miss on a known but unavailable talent then whats going on now.

3 team trade LAC/MIN/NOP

MIN out: Randle, DDV, McDaniels, Conley, TSJ, Miller, DET 1st, 2025 PHI pick
MIN in: Leonard, Murray, Derrick Jones Jr.

LAC out: Leonard, Jones Jr., Tucker
LAC in: Ingram, Randle, Miller

NOP out: Ingram, Murray
NOP in: McDaniels, Conley, Divencenzo, TSJ, Tucker, picks

Not sure what the trade markets for BI would be but, McDaniels seems like a cheaper younger version.

We take a huge risk on Kawhi but if he's around can change the level of this team and restore some faith around here.

Murray and BI is honestly the only piece here I think would be difficult but if BI really wants out I think this could work for the clippers as they get their picks back in 2026 and this could workout nicely if they have to rebuild.

The Pelicans would get McDaniels, they would plan their start for a tank for the next two years. Fire sale and start early.

Honestly this deal isnt great for the Pels but it clears their books and gives them a couple of more movable contracts around McD and DDV.

For us

Murray/Dillignham
Ant/NAW
Kawhi/Derrick Jones
Reid/Minott
Gobert/Garza

We basically gamble on Kawhi, but if healthy this would be somewhat closer to what we had last year. Jones Jr should be able to slide PF and can play the 3 well as we saw in the playoffs last year.

MIN adds $6.3 mil in salary. Apron Rules say they can’t add salary, plus they can’t aggregate salaries, so they can’t add salaries together to trade for a $49 mil Kawhi.

MIN either needs to focus on players that make less than any individual player they send out, or complete a deal where they lose $10 mil in salary after the deal and drop below the apron.

I know everyone has their favorite Trade Checker, but I’d encourage people to only use Spotrac’s checker right now, until the other ones include apron rules.

Was using Fanspo. Thanks for the recommendation

Fanspo isn't the issue here. There's a line in red between the salaries and players that clearly states the Wolves are a second apron team and can't aggregate players before you even start trading players. Then actually doing your trade fails for both of the reasons Shrink mentioned, both of which are highlighted in big red error banners.

Even if it was legal the trade is terrible anyway, so I guess the technicalities are a bit moot.

[shrink]

I will say that many times, teams don’t have cap space, so the most they can offer is the MLE. Often the original team uses their Bird rights offers a bit more, and it’s the highest offer. Next year, the non-tax MLE will be like $14.1. However, I will mention that the new apron rules affect this as well. If a team used their MLE on NAW, they will hard cap them at the apron, so that may discourage some buyers.

I’m hoping for under $15, assuming NAW doesn’t make an All Defense team.

Could it increase his potential trade value, since any team that acquires him also gets his Bird rights?

Yes, and this happens regularly, though we generally don’t talk about it that way.

The last time I mentioned it was trading for Monte Morris, where we gained his potential play for the rest of the season, plus we gained his Bird rights if we wanted to sign him to a new deal last summer.

[shangrila]

CHI: Julius Randle and Wendell Moore Jr.
OUT: Lonzo Ball, Jalen Smith, 2025 POR FRP (1-14 Protected), and 2027 CHI FRP (debate protections)

DET: Lonzo Ball and 2025 DET FRP (1-13 Protected)
OUT: Wendell Moore Jr. and 2030 MIN SRP

MIN: Jalen Smith and 2025 POR FRP (1-14 Protected), 2027 CHI FRP (debate protections), and 2030 MIN SRP
OUT: Julius Randle and 2025 DET FRP (1-13 Protected)


Not a good package (value variable), but it would give Minnesota a solid backup big man and cut $24.5MM off of their books. Avoids both aprons, would only be in the tax by $5.5MM.

Probably better to take Lonzo Ball and keep the first, but ducking the Second Apron also has longterm value.

1) bulls are trying to trade lavine/vuc and go young by all accounts
2) Randle isn't worth 2 1sts, esp not to a borderline play in team like the bulls
3) Detroit only has about 15M capspace and cant do a lonzo for Moore Jr swap

Agreed. Feels like it makes more sense for Randle to be going to Detroit since they're more likely to want to be winning

[winforlose]

You know what a team with offensive struggles needs desperately in a PG, more offensive struggles. I put a link to Lonzo’s BB ref page below, he is so far from the answer. We need a Coby White type sharpshooter PG (what we thought we were getting with DDV and hope to develop Dilly into.) At this point Mike is semi washed and not super helpful. You win or lose at the PG and C and our rotations are deficient in both.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/balllo01/gamelog/2025/

[shangrila]

So here's how I see teams interest in Randle:

Boston Celtics: No interest
New Jersey Nets: No interest as a player - maybe as an expiring
New York Knicks: N/A
Philadelphia 76ers: Unlikely to have interest, don't believe that have the matching salary either
Toronto Raptors: No interest - rebuilding
Chicago Bulls: No interest as a player - maybe as an expiring
Cleveland Cavaliers: No interest
Detroit Pistons: Potential interest - They may want to improve to take advantage of a weak East
Indiana Pacers: No interest
Milwaukee Bucks: No interest
Atlanta Hawks: No interest
Charlotte Hornets: Unlikely to have interest - might want to improve, similar to Detroit, but they seem more willing to continue rebuilding
Miami Heat: Unlikely to have interest - Randle might serve as a piece in a potential Butler trade
Orlando Magic: No interest
Washington Wizards: No interest as a player - maybe as an expiring

Denver Nuggets: No interest
Oklahoma City Thunder: No interest
Portland Trail Blazers: No interest as a player - potentially as an expiring
Utah Jazz: No interest
Golden State Warriors: No interest
Los Angeles Clippers: Unlikely to have interest - hard to match salaries, unsure what their plan is since they don't own their pick
Los Angeles Lakers: Possible interest - they might get desperate to appease Lebron/AD
Phoenix Suns: Not possible due to salary constraints
Sacramento Kings: Possible they get desperate with the Fox stuff, hard to match salary
Dallas Mavericks: No interest
Houston Rockets: No interest
Memphis Grizzlies: Unlikely interest
New Orleans Pelicans: Unlikely - I realise the Murray rumours have been floating around but they seem more interested in cutting salary to get under the tax given this nightmare season
San Antonio Spurs: Potential interest, though unlikely

[Klomp]

You know what a team with offensive struggles needs desperately in a PG, more offensive struggles. I put a link to Lonzo’s BB ref page below, he is so far from the answer. We need a Coby White type sharpshooter PG (what we thought we were getting with DDV and hope to develop Dilly into.) At this point Mike is semi washed and not super helpful. You win or lose at the PG and C and our rotations are deficient in both.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/balllo01/gamelog/2025/

The team looked far better last season with Kyle Anderson on the floor, and that's exactly the type of connective player that Lonzo Ball has always been.

[shangrila]

So here's a trade idea:

MIN out: Julius Randle, Josh Minott (explained below), picks
MIN in: Kyle Kuzma, Day'Ron Sharpe, Johnny Davis, protected 2nd from Nets
Reason - Swap Randle for Kuzma, who has a declining contract, and pick up Sharpe for another big body behind Rudy. Davis is a 5mil expiring who's unlikely to stick.

WAS out: Kyle Kuzma, Johnny Davis
WAS in: Julius Randle, picks
Reason - Get some additional picks (discussed further below), shed Kuzma's 3rd year of salary in favour of either an expiring Randle or a big expiring next year. Randle is also unlikely to hurt their tank.

BRK out: Day'Ron Sharpe, top 55 protected 2nd
BRK in: Josh Minott (technically separate deal, absorbed into TPE)
Reason - Shed a bit of salary and take a chance on a different prospect, since Sharpe isn't doing much.


Picks: This is the hard part as I'm not sure what's fair value. Randle adds about 5mil to the Wizard's current salary (though they're still under the tax) and potentially over 10mil next season but that doesn't seem to warrant a 1st these days. On the flip side they have an absolutely absurd number of 2nds which diminishes the value we can provide them in that regard.

I'd personally take the gamble and offer them a '28 1st swap, which is unlikely to convey, and our '31 2nds (ours and GSW's) and see if that's enough. That would still guarantee us a 1st in '28 and both the Detroit 1st plus the Jazz 2nd this year to add a little extra youth this/next year.

[wolves_89]

If I had to bet on a destination in Randle trade it would be the Pistons. They are one of the few places he might actually be valuable and there are a number of ways to make the money work thanks to them being a ways under the salary cap. One additional point of interest is that we own their protected pick, which likely makes it more valuable to them than any other team (reaquiring it would mean they could keep it if they make the playoffs and it also frees up other picks for potential trades).

[winforlose]

You know what a team with offensive struggles needs desperately in a PG, more offensive struggles. I put a link to Lonzo’s BB ref page below, he is so far from the answer. We need a Coby White type sharpshooter PG (what we thought we were getting with DDV and hope to develop Dilly into.) At this point Mike is semi washed and not super helpful. You win or lose at the PG and C and our rotations are deficient in both.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/balllo01/gamelog/2025/

The team looked far better last season with Kyle Anderson on the floor, and that's exactly the type of connective player that Lonzo Ball has always been.

I’m sorry but you and I remember last season very differently. Kyle was non a shooter who would park in the corner and the lane would be even more clogged. Kyle would dribble in and the defense would recover. Kyle was a least a defensive presence, Lonzo isn’t.

[BlacJacMac]

You know what a team with offensive struggles needs desperately in a PG, more offensive struggles. I put a link to Lonzo’s BB ref page below, he is so far from the answer. We need a Coby White type sharpshooter PG (what we thought we were getting with DDV and hope to develop Dilly into.) At this point Mike is semi washed and not super helpful. You win or lose at the PG and C and our rotations are deficient in both.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/balllo01/gamelog/2025/

I think I disagree with every part of this...

Lonzo's shot hasn't come around yet, but he's fueling winning. He's the ideal guy to put next to Ant. We don't need another small SG that can't defend next to him.

I also do not believe "You win or lose at the PG and C". I think you win with wings. Give me three 2-way players at SG/SF/PF and I can fill in the gaps easily. Other than Jokic (who is an anomaly), what's the last title team to win because of their Center? Tim Duncan's Spurs?

[BlacJacMac]

Kyle was a least a defensive presence, Lonzo isn’t.

Lonzo Ball has always been a stud defender. Before he found his 3pt shot, he made his hay on defense.

He's been, far and away, The Bulls best defensive player this year.

[Klomp]

You know what a team with offensive struggles needs desperately in a PG, more offensive struggles. I put a link to Lonzo’s BB ref page below, he is so far from the answer. We need a Coby White type sharpshooter PG (what we thought we were getting with DDV and hope to develop Dilly into.) At this point Mike is semi washed and not super helpful. You win or lose at the PG and C and our rotations are deficient in both.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/balllo01/gamelog/2025/

I think I disagree with every part of this...

Lonzo's shot hasn't come around yet, but he's fueling winning. He's the ideal guy to put next to Ant. We don't need another small SG that can't defend next to him.

I also do not believe "You win or lose at the PG and C". I think you win with wings. Give me three 2-way players at SG/SF/PF and I can fill in the gaps easily. Other than Jokic (who is an anomaly), what's the last title team to win because of their Center? Tim Duncan's Spurs?

Also, what were the names of the PG and C who fueled the wins for the Celtics last year?

[BlacJacMac]

You know what a team with offensive struggles needs desperately in a PG, more offensive struggles. I put a link to Lonzo’s BB ref page below, he is so far from the answer. We need a Coby White type sharpshooter PG (what we thought we were getting with DDV and hope to develop Dilly into.) At this point Mike is semi washed and not super helpful. You win or lose at the PG and C and our rotations are deficient in both.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/balllo01/gamelog/2025/

I think I disagree with every part of this...

Lonzo's shot hasn't come around yet, but he's fueling winning. He's the ideal guy to put next to Ant. We don't need another small SG that can't defend next to him.

I also do not believe "You win or lose at the PG and C". I think you win with wings. Give me three 2-way players at SG/SF/PF and I can fill in the gaps easily. Other than Jokic (who is an anomaly), what's the last title team to win because of their Center? Tim Duncan's Spurs?

Also, what were the names of the PG and C who fueled the wins for the Celtics last year?

Exactly. I love Holiday, but he's their 4th best player and they're still chugging along this year despite him having a horrific season. And their starting C is 38 years old.