The easy OKC-UTA trade: pick for pick

[babyjax13]

OKC trades: 2025 UTA 1st (1-8, 1-8)
UTA trades: lowest of 2029 UTA/CLE/MIN 1st (MIN 1st is 1-5 protected, if not conveyed, OKC receives lower of UTA/CLE 1st)

Why OKC does it: guarantee a pick, push the obligation forward.
Why UTA does it: eliminate the chance of conveying a 2026 lottery pick to OKC.

[Texas Chuck]

Man if I'm OKC I'd rather take my chances at a 2nd half of the lotto pick in a year rather than wait four more years for a pick very unlikely to be in the lottery. Even knowing my choice might mean I nothing.

[babyjax13]

Man if I'm OKC I'd rather take my chances at a 2nd half of the lotto pick in a year rather than wait four more years for a pick very unlikely to be in the lottery. Even knowing my choice might mean I nothing.

I could see that, though based on this season I'd just assume Utah is going to be garbage next year, too. Maybe even worse if they are able to move Sexton/Collins and decide to move Lauri in the offseason, all of which seem pretty possible.

[jbk1234]

The Jazz would have to make it the best of the Cavs/Minny pick to get OKC to bite. Maybe the second best of the three picks.

[shrink]

This is my second favorite type of trade (#1 is tiny financial deals to slip under the lux).

Picks get traded to other teams constantly because, with protections, they can be easily used to balance valuations. However, picks often have more value to their original team because those teams have some control where the pick lands. I’ve been tempted to go through all the traded picks to find trades to send those picks home, because I think we could find several trades that work for both teams, since most picks are more valuable to their original team.

[Texas Chuck]

Man if I'm OKC I'd rather take my chances at a 2nd half of the lotto pick in a year rather than wait four more years for a pick very unlikely to be in the lottery. Even knowing my choice might mean I nothing.

I could see that, though based on this season I'd just assume Utah is going to be garbage next year, too. Maybe even worse if they are able to move Sexton/Collins and decide to move Lauri in the offseason, all of which seem pretty possible.

yeah I'm just almost always going to choose upside variance. And as a team like OKC with a bunch of lower ceiling assets already I don't like lowering the ceiling of any of them. Though obviously there is real value for them in pushing the pick back. I should have put more weight on that honestly.

Still I'd pass as them and if I'm UTah and I'm willing to hard tank for another year I definitely don't want to just give up a future pick for nothing.

[babyjax13]

The Jazz would have to make it the best of the Cavs/Minny pick to get OKC to bite. Maybe the second best of the three picks.

I think that's more manageable if it is 2027. My thought, generally, is that this gives OKC a larger time horizon to trade picks for other things they like, but I get the upside preference.

[OutsidetheNBA]

Man if I'm OKC I'd rather take my chances at a 2nd half of the lotto pick in a year rather than wait four more years for a pick very unlikely to be in the lottery. Even knowing my choice might mean I nothing.

I could see that, though based on this season I'd just assume Utah is going to be garbage next year, too. Maybe even worse if they are able to move Sexton/Collins and decide to move Lauri in the offseason, all of which seem pretty possible.

yeah I'm just almost always going to choose upside variance. And as a team like OKC with a bunch of lower ceiling assets already I don't like lowering the ceiling of any of them. Though obviously there is real value for them in pushing the pick back. I should have put more weight on that honestly.

Still I'd pass as them and if I'm UTah and I'm willing to hard tank for another year I definitely don't want to just give up a future pick for nothing.

Schrodinger's upside variance -- it's alive when Utah owns the pick (and doesn't have an incentive to get one of the worst 5-6 records in the league, which they can easily do), but is dead when OKC owns the pick (and Ainge has an incentive to tank).

I would do the trade if I'm OKC.

[jayjaysee]

I think it has to be the middle of the three picks. Or Presti just sees if Utah is actually willing/able to tank another year or if they build a team around Lauri in the offseason. With Utah’s assets, hard would it be to turn Collins and Clarkson into positive impact players and be back to fighting for the play-in next year?

I think you could add protection to “middle of” pick that makes it turn into a worst of pick? Like middle of the three top 8 protected, if two or more picks fall in the protected range OKC gets the worst of the 3. Utah gets to keep most the upside, but there’s a chance at a late lottery pick for OKC.

Does seem better for Utah to trade Lauri and sexton and build around players not on the roster yet though.

[Godaddycurse]

if i'm ainge i would just ensure a terrible product next year too and keep my 2029 picks altogether. As it stands the likelihood of jazz taking a big leap next year is pretty minimal.

you only need to be the bottom 6 teams to keep your pick. I think thats pretty easily done w/ this roster, esp if Raptors and Brooklyn want to compete as early as next year as speculated

[wemby]

If I'm the Thunder I'd seriously consider that deal, but I'd wait until the lottery order is set to decide
If the Jazz gets lucky and get a top 2 pick (likely Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper) then I'd stand pat and roll the dice. I'm sure they'd like to see Flagg/Harper alongside Lauri and Kessler ASAP.
But if the Jazz pick comes at 3 or below, I don't think they get a sure fire contributor and more likely than not they tank again and the pick becomes seconds.
So it's all up in the air.

[mg]

if i'm ainge i would just ensure a terrible product next year too and keep my 2029 picks altogether. As it stands the likelihood of jazz taking a big leap next year is pretty minimal.

you only need to be the bottom 6 teams to keep your pick. I think thats pretty easily done w/ this roster, esp if Raptors and Brooklyn want to compete as early as next year as speculated

This. After Ainge and Ryan Smith rolled out the red carpet to get Dybantsa to Utah (BYU) I highly doubt they won't be tanking next season too.

Ainge has always been a bit of a pick hoarder so don't see him handing another to OKC when it should be easy enough to extinguish the debt by tanking for one more season.

[BigGargamel]

The Thunder have too many picks and not enough roster spots, but they will probably just continue to sell late first round picks (they sold the P. Watson pick to DEN a couple years ago I think) and use the higher ones on upside guys.

[Devilanche]

I think it has to be the middle of the three picks. Or Presti just sees if Utah is actually willing/able to tank another year or if they build a team around Lauri in the offseason. With Utah’s assets, hard would it be to turn Collins and Clarkson into positive impact players and be back to fighting for the play-in next year?

I think you could add protection to “middle of” pick that makes it turn into a worst of pick? Like middle of the three top 8 protected, if two or more picks fall in the protected range OKC gets the worst of the 3. Utah gets to keep most the upside, but there’s a chance at a late lottery pick for OKC.

Does seem better for Utah to trade Lauri and sexton and build around players not on the roster yet though.

Probably this is most interesting to me .
Is it possible that if the middle pick is protected as well OKC get 1-2 second rounders as well ?

Just want see how much more complex a first for another first could be.

[Daddy 801]

Utah sends 2025 Cleveland pick and the protections are removed for 2026 Jazz pick.

If the pick falls in the top 8 then OKC has to send two second round draft picks to Utah (don’t care which years). If the 2026 pick is outside of the top 8 then Utah has to send the lowest of their 2027 frp’s to OKC.

Utah has a little protection that they get a couple second round draft picks if they are still top 8 next year (pretty likely). OKC has some protection that if Utah somehow is not top 8 they get two first round draft picks. Yes they are low frp’s but in reality I think the likelihood Utah is not a top 8 pick next year is pretty unlikely. So OKC trades two second round draft picks for two late frp’s.

Seems about right to me from a value and risk/reward for each team.

[jayjaysee]

I think it has to be the middle of the three picks. Or Presti just sees if Utah is actually willing/able to tank another year or if they build a team around Lauri in the offseason. With Utah’s assets, hard would it be to turn Collins and Clarkson into positive impact players and be back to fighting for the play-in next year?

I think you could add protection to “middle of” pick that makes it turn into a worst of pick? Like middle of the three top 8 protected, if two or more picks fall in the protected range OKC gets the worst of the 3. Utah gets to keep most the upside, but there’s a chance at a late lottery pick for OKC.

Does seem better for Utah to trade Lauri and sexton and build around players not on the roster yet though.

Probably this is most interesting to me .
Is it possible that if the middle pick is protected as well OKC get 1-2 second rounders as well ?

Just want see how much more complex a first for another first could be.

If all three picks land in the top 8, Utah deserves to keep them. Wouldn’t mess with that level of luck.

But I don’t think the league cares much about how fun and layered GM’s make the pick protections/stips..

[zimpy27]

The Jazz would have to make it the best of the Cavs/Minny pick to get OKC to bite. Maybe the second best of the three picks.

I think that's more manageable if it is 2027. My thought, generally, is that this gives OKC a larger time horizon to trade picks for other things they like, but I get the upside preference.

If I were OKC I'd be valuing 2025 and 2026 FRPs the highest since that gets me rookie contract guys to fill roster when I'm going to be very expensive with SGA, Jalen, Chet on max or near max deals.

[Devilanche]

I think it has to be the middle of the three picks. Or Presti just sees if Utah is actually willing/able to tank another year or if they build a team around Lauri in the offseason. With Utah’s assets, hard would it be to turn Collins and Clarkson into positive impact players and be back to fighting for the play-in next year?

I think you could add protection to “middle of” pick that makes it turn into a worst of pick? Like middle of the three top 8 protected, if two or more picks fall in the protected range OKC gets the worst of the 3. Utah gets to keep most the upside, but there’s a chance at a late lottery pick for OKC.

Does seem better for Utah to trade Lauri and sexton and build around players not on the roster yet though.

Probably this is most interesting to me .
Is it possible that if the middle pick is protected as well OKC get 1-2 second rounders as well ?

Just want see how much more complex a first for another first could be.

If all three picks land in the top 8, Utah deserves to keep them. Wouldn’t mess with that level of luck.

But I don’t think the league cares much about how fun and layered GM’s make the pick protections/stips..

No issue with that . 3 top 8 is kind of impressive.

[jayjaysee]

The Jazz would have to make it the best of the Cavs/Minny pick to get OKC to bite. Maybe the second best of the three picks.

I think that's more manageable if it is 2027. My thought, generally, is that this gives OKC a larger time horizon to trade picks for other things they like, but I get the upside preference.

If I were OKC I'd be valuing 2025 and 2026 FRPs the highest since that gets me rookie contract guys to fill roster when I'm going to be very expensive with SGA, Jalen, Chet on max or near max deals.

Think it would be better for them to continue delay most of the assets for once OKC is living with second apron issues when those three stars are on their second max deals.

But has to be some upside in it for them still..

[Texas Chuck]

I think that's more manageable if it is 2027. My thought, generally, is that this gives OKC a larger time horizon to trade picks for other things they like, but I get the upside preference.

If I were OKC I'd be valuing 2025 and 2026 FRPs the highest since that gets me rookie contract guys to fill roster when I'm going to be very expensive with SGA, Jalen, Chet on max or near max deals.

Think it would be better for them to continue delay most of the assets for once OKC is living with second apron issues when those three stars are on their second max deals.

But has to be some upside in it for them still..

Agree. Either to have some cheap depth or future picks hold more value as trade chips for when they identify a real need or have a chance at another star.

Plus their rotation is pretty stout right now. Other than maybe a forward with some size not much room to crack and definitely not likely by a guy picked outside the top 10.

The pushing back part of this makes sense. And we know Presti agrees because he's made several deals doing just that already.