2024-25 NBA DPOY and All-Defense discussion

[shrink]

Let me summarize many of these posts.

“<Insert the best defensive player on my team> should be talked about because he does well despite <insert names of bad defensive players on my team.>> Even though he isn’t part of the conversation for DPOY, the topic of the thread, I badly want to talk about him to make sure my guy gets “respect.” Why isn’t he a poll option?!?”

[jayu70]

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[Rust_Cohle]

Let me summarize many of these posts.

“<Insert the best defensive player on my team> should be talked about because he does well despite <insert names of bad defensive players on my team.>> Even though he isn’t part of the conversation for DPOY, the topic of the thread, I badly want to talk about him to make sure my guy gets “respect.” Why isn’t he a poll option?!?”

With wemby this season he seems so far ahead of the rest of the pack with how much he changes the game for opposing teams that it’s almost a shame as other players like Dyson have been awesome but may have a very hard time winning DPOY until the wemby voter fatigue hits

[Bornstellar]

Right now it's:

1. Wemby
2. Daniels
3. Mobley

[jayu70]

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[yoyoboy]

Right now it's:

1. Wemby
2. Daniels
3. Mobley

Daniels is not a more impactful defender than Mobley.

[kg01]

Right now it's:

1. Wemby
2. Daniels
3. Mobley

Daniels is not a more impactful defender than Mobley.

I think there's enough differentiation between big men and wing defenders that I almost wish there were 2 separate awards.

On DD vs Mobley, it's almost unfair to compare. DD, in many ways, is on a but of an island defensively. Mobley has Allen next to or behind him. So is the impact really measuring them in tandem vs Mobley alone?

On top of that, as I suggested imho, bigs vs wings have different responsibilities really. Bigs often have action funneled to them whereas wings always have to do their own work, so to speak.

Eh, hopefully people will take my meaning and not bog down on my clumsy explanation. I have little faith tho....

[DCasey91]

Dyson Daniels has not performed better than Tari Eason, Ausar Thompson, Alex Caruso

People get into steals too much. He's obviously a great defender just not as good as the above. Even if you switched places.

People still sleeping on Eason man is some monster Kawhi/Grant hybrid.

[epfou1]

Dyson Daniels has not performed better than Tari Eason, Ausar Thompson, Alex Caruso

People get into steals too much. He's obviously a great defender just not as good as the above. Even if you switched places.

People still sleeping on Eason man is some monster Kawhi/Grant hybrid.

I'm guessing you haven't watch Daniels play. It is not just steals. Its deflections and he forces turnovers and bad shots. The stats back up the eye test with Daniels. Where the stats dont do the same for Eason, Thompson

[Sane]

So De-Aron Fox should get first or second team defense for being top 5 in steal %, top 2 deflections and top 2 in drive stopping? Come on now. Those things are not well correlated to exceptional defense. Everyone knows Fox is not an elite defender, even if he's doing that.

Dyson is excellent but he's so overrated right now. Hawks are the 18th defense and playing two good rim protectors at C and multiple good defensive wings. If Dyson Daniels was a DPOY calibre perimeter player, their defense would be better than that. A perimeter player can't carry a defense like a C, but certainly his impact on the overall defense with such a solid foundation would be higher if he were having the same impact as say a prime defensive Kawhi. A DPOY level wing + Capela/Okongwu + Johnson/Hunter/Risacher + Snyder should = a top 10 defense even if you're starting Trae Young.

Dyson is imo almost as good as Ausar, Amen, Eason, OG and I'd argue the twins are best of the group purely in terms of defensive statistical impact. Dyson is still one of the elite perimeter defenders in the NBA of course, don't get me wrong about that. Once his 3PT shot improves he will have exception impact on wins.

[kg01]

Weird. The Hawks do not have two good rim protectors. They actually don't have any. The idea that, to be considered elite, Dyson has to carry a whole defense by himself? Odd.

And can we stop with the assumptions that people 'only' think he's really good defensively "because" he gets steals and deflections.

[GunnerWRX]

Not DPOY but Andrew Wiggins is playing defense at the level of the 2022 Warriors playoffs/Finals run.

[Castle Black]

Wemby with yet another 6-block game. Dude is insane. He also missed the majority of the 3rd quarter tonight after being head-butted in the chin.

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[The KnicksFix]

Where’s OG?

[Rust_Cohle]

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[jayu70]

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[NDaATL]

So De-Aron Fox should get first or second team defense for being top 5 in steal %, top 2 deflections and top 2 in drive stopping? Come on now. Those things are not well correlated to exceptional defense. Everyone knows Fox is not an elite defender, even if he's doing that.

Dyson is excellent but he's so overrated right now. Hawks are the 18th defense and playing two good rim protectors at C and multiple good defensive wings. If Dyson Daniels was a DPOY calibre perimeter player, their defense would be better than that. A perimeter player can't carry a defense like a C, but certainly his impact on the overall defense with such a solid foundation would be higher if he were having the same impact as say a prime defensive Kawhi. A DPOY level wing + Capela/Okongwu + Johnson/Hunter/Risacher + Snyder should = a top 10 defense even if you're starting Trae Young.

Dyson is imo almost as good as Ausar, Amen, Eason, OG and I'd argue the twins are best of the group purely in terms of defensive statistical impact. Dyson is still one of the elite perimeter defenders in the NBA of course, don't get me wrong about that. Once his 3PT shot improves he will have exception impact on wins.

You clearly haven't watched Daniels play

[scrabbarista]

If you look at all players in the league who have played at least 10 games this season (Chet has played exactly 10) and average at least 20 MPG this season here are the best rim protectors in the league.

1. Chet Holmgren (42.9% allowed at the rim)
2. Isaiah Stewart (43.6% allowed at the rim)
3. Victor Wembanyama (46.3% allowed at the rim)
4. PJ Washington (50.5% allowed at the rim)
5. Brook Lopez (51.0% allowed at the rim)
6. Amen Thompson (52.2% allowed at the rim)
7. Jarren Jackson Jr (52.5% allowed at the rim)
8. Jalen Williams (52.8% allowed at the rim)

How many of those guys pressure the ball, stop the ball, close out, and get around screens like Thompson? None, of course, but is any of them even close? Williams? JJJ? Wemby? Chet? Steal % would be interesting to see, too.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Updated top 10 D-EPM:

1. Alex Caruso (OKC) at +3.4
2. Chet Holmgren (OKC) at +3.3
3. Amen Thompson (HOU) at +2.9
4. Kris Dunn (LAC) at +2.7
5. Joel Embiid (PHI) at +2.7
6. Ivica Zubac (LAC) at +2.6
7. Victor Wembanyama (SA) at +2.6
8. Jonathan Issac (ORL) at +2.5
9. Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) at +2.5
10. Rudy Gobert (MIN) at +2.4

To me, I think nobody stands out as not being deserving of a top 10 defender slot really this year with the exception of Dyson Daniels only ranking 16th. Not sure why the metric doesn't like him. I'd probably replace Dyson Daniels with Hartenstein and then the top 10 would be pretty damn accurate (not in terms of ranking but just having the right 10 guys that should fill All defense teams).

[benhillboy]

Defensive, offensive, and total box plus/ minus is on Basketball Reference’s Advanced Stats tab. Along with usage, rebound %, FT rate and all that jazz. Tari Eason leads the entire league as of now at +3.9 followed by Kris Dunn, Sengun, SGA, and Jokic.
6-20:
Cason
Wembanyama
J Dub
Bitazde
Amen
Day Day
Dyson Daniels
KCP
Giannis
Ben Simmons
Lively
Conley
Jaden Mack
Jake Laravia (one of the most underrated players going)
Rudy rounds out the Top 20

Its a singular, flawed metric like all the others but it checks out more times than not based on my eyes over the years. In the most simplest terms I like to think of it as a barometer for how well a player is positioned off ball and how consistently he forces players into negative passes that decrease the probability of a high percentage shot.

OG gets knocked here mostly due to his rebounding, and I agree with that. I’m sure by design he isn’t in rebounding/ box out positions, I still can’t grant a pass on that seeing how terribly important I think it is regardless of scheme at his size.

I don't think you can use a metric to determine help defense. Deflections and turnover generation can be useful for figuring out how active a guy is and if he's a "defensive playmaker", but can't tell the whole story. There are elite help defenders who are more about making good rotations and cutting off actions in a way that doesn't generate a stat.

Overall, most "catch all" defensive metrics love OG. craftedNBA has a metric where they combine DARKO, LEBRON, DRIP, BPM, and RAPM. For the defensive side of that, OG ranks in the 94th percentile. These stats are all good, but looking at just one of these lists it becomes pretty clear how there's lots of stuff the numbers don't understand. I promise you Mike Conley isn't the best defensive player in Minnesota, Shai isn't the best in OKC, and Jokic isn't better at defense than Wemby and Rudy.

OG in New York has a bit of a strange role. They task him with star matchups, but also put him in long rotations. Very different from how Nurse used him in Toronto, but he's still massively effective. I can't look at OG's numbers or tape and not think he's clearly one of the most disruptive defensive forwards in the NBA.

I wholeheartedly believe help, weakside awareness, boxing out, and communication are all baked into defensive metrics on a case-by-case basis. Conley (exceptional synergy and lead communicator with Gobert), Jokic (genius intelligence and mostly responsible for transforming Gordon) and SGA (at the POA more than ever and quarterbacking many coverages) deserve any high ranks they receive. Players who know how to expertly utilize and play off their elite defensive teammates to great team effect on the game flow.

Looking at the updated EPM ranks it looks solid as a rock. I can understand why execs feel it’s the most reliable catch-all. I think Caruso is arguably the best weakside diagnoser (is that a word?)/ bad pass baiter/ action blow up man for a few years now, shown in his crazy annual metrics, and why OKC saw him as the final piece needed to complement Dort on the strong side and paid him accordingly despite shooting like dog you know what. Consistent on the weak side box outs as well.

I love the metrics giving Kris Dunn his flowers. His full court press makes Harden and Zubac considerably better defenders on shorter clocks.

You just gonna brow-beat me into liking OG huh