Warriors have a Steve Kerr problem

[DB23]

he's a trash coach finally being exposed since he doesn't have 4 hall of famers in their prime anymore

Besides the obvious 2022 result, can you name 5 coaches you consider better in the current nba?

Any answer here would be 100% speculation. Would another coach use better lineups? Who knows..

Coaches shouldn’t be evaluated like that, they should be evaluated against their own teams potential, and how close they get to it. I asked a question earlier about how much better the team would be if they just played their likely best starting lineup. Now it’s not exact because Schroeder’s numbers are Nets-weighted.. but current team is +1.5/100. The lineup a lot of us suggesting turns it into +7.3 and 19-8 record. If I take Schroeder out and run a backup unit with Podz/JK and the scrubs as bench? +5.5

For reference: if I took all of Kelly Oubre’s 20-21 minutes and gave them to 21-22 Wiggins, the difference is +4.8

Now these are all MLM generated numbers, simulated based on about 50 different metrics and peripheral stats. So of course it’s not exact.. but these things have been historically accurate, ballpark, and there’s no reason for me to stop believing them now. Kerr is leaving a ton of value on the table for reasons that don’t make sense. It doesn’t matter who would do better, bc he’s not getting fired/replaced. But we can expect more from him.. if nothing else, Steph deserves that

Kerr has always tried to play the long game. And I think the above is interesting but it could be simple as that he does not believe we can make any noise without a healthy Steph come playoff time and that Steph can’t play 82 games at pg being picked up full court the whole time.

Steph’s still amazing but we can all see he’s slowed down and isn’t moving nearly as much as he used to.

Personally i do think the modern nba has moved past his offense and we need more shooting on the floor at all times but it’s not like we have the players for that either. Hard to know how much is him vs the front office but it would be good to see someone like turner in place of tjd just to space things out more.

[SpreeS]

Curry/Buddy/Wiggins/Dray are the core 4. Until Kerr plays them extended minutes I’m not losing hope on this team. My faith in Kerr finding this core though is waning.

Have you seen Steph this year?

Yes. Have you seen the spacing he's playing with this year? No contender plays with worse spacing than Steph. Spacing makes everyone's scoring easier. It's why Shroeder was having a career year in BKN and playing like trash here. Steph is literally playing on hall of fame mode where there are essentially no threats on the perimeter while jason tatum is playing on easy mode playing 5 out offense as an example.

GSW

3P 4th
3PA 4th
3P% 11th

Now it calls no spacing. So how do you call this? How they win games?

ORL

3P 29th
3PA 15th
3% 30th

HOU

3P 26th
3PA 20th
3% 29th

3PA

DEN 30th
LAL 27th
LAC 26th
IND 25th
DAL 23th
ATL 22th
HOU 20th

Also 8 teams have worse record than GSW but are in 3PA TOP12. Spamming from 3P doesn’t correlate to wins.

[Sandy333]

The talent on this team is fine. The team started the year on a winning run beating most of the top teams. They even won without Steph. But a bad patch has caused everyone to forget.

I've never been a big fan of Kerr, I'm doubtful if he'd have ever found coaching success without Steph to save him: see international record coaching loaded US teams.

If it's a choice between the problem being the talent or the coaching, I'm going to question the coaching first.

How many players on our team start for okc?

We have a talent problem.

We have a talent development problem. Name one player who has improved significantly in 5 years.

[DB23]

The talent on this team is fine. The team started the year on a winning run beating most of the top teams. They even won without Steph. But a bad patch has caused everyone to forget.

I've never been a big fan of Kerr, I'm doubtful if he'd have ever found coaching success without Steph to save him: see international record coaching loaded US teams.

If it's a choice between the problem being the talent or the coaching, I'm going to question the coaching first.

How many players on our team start for okc?

We have a talent problem.

We have a talent development problem. Name one player who has improved significantly in 5 years.

Possible but be specific, who do you think has star/all star talent?

We won’t know for a few years and if a couple leave for other teams but wiseman busted after he left us,l and I just don’t believe wiseman, podz, kuminga or moody ever had the ceiling of a star player.

If you do, which ones?

[Onus]

Have you seen Steph this year?

Yes. Have you seen the spacing he's playing with this year? No contender plays with worse spacing than Steph. Spacing makes everyone's scoring easier. It's why Shroeder was having a career year in BKN and playing like trash here. Steph is literally playing on hall of fame mode where there are essentially no threats on the perimeter while jason tatum is playing on easy mode playing 5 out offense as an example.

GSW

3P 4th
3PA 4th
3P% 11th

Now it calls no spacing. So how do you call this? How they win games?

ORL

3P 29th
3PA 15th
3% 30th

HOU

3P 26th
3PA 20th
3% 29th

3PA

DEN 30th
LAL 27th
LAC 26th
IND 25th
DAL 23th
ATL 22th
HOU 20th

Also 8 teams have worse record than GSW but are in 3PA TOP12. Spamming from 3P doesn’t correlate to wins.

As for how three-pointers are affecting the game this year, the teams that have made and attempted the most have correlated with higher winning percentage (the opposite is also true). For example, the Boston Celtics have the best winning percentage. They also have the most three-pointers made and attempted per game, nailing 16.2 triples on 42.9 attempts this season. The Celtics are taking 2.4 more triples than the next highest team, the Mavericks. Even while leading the NBA by a large margin in attempts, the team is doing it effectively, as the Celtics are fifth in 3PT% at 37.9%. The Celtics have clearly leaned into the three-point shot, and it is paying dividends for them.
https://sites.northwestern.edu/nusportsanalytics/2024/03/28/beyond-the-arc-unveiling-the-pivotal-impact-of-nba-three-pointers/

Take Steph out of our makes and 3p% and then you’ll see our dilemma. Steph has the ball he’s not providing spacing for himself.

[Jester_]

How many players on our team start for okc?

We have a talent problem.

We have a talent development problem. Name one player who has improved significantly in 5 years.

Possible but be specific, who do you think has star/all star talent?

We won’t know for a few years and if a couple leave for other teams but wiseman busted after he left us,l and I just don’t believe wiseman, podz, kuminga or moody ever had the ceiling of a star player.

If you do, which ones?

We couldn't turn any of those players into a starter. That's an embarrassment of development.

[Onus]

The talent on this team is fine. The team started the year on a winning run beating most of the top teams. They even won without Steph. But a bad patch has caused everyone to forget.

I've never been a big fan of Kerr, I'm doubtful if he'd have ever found coaching success without Steph to save him: see international record coaching loaded US teams.

If it's a choice between the problem being the talent or the coaching, I'm going to question the coaching first.

How many players on our team start for okc?

We have a talent problem.

We have a talent development problem. Name one player who has improved significantly in 5 years.

Poole. He went from worst player in the nba as a rookie to whatever he is now.

[Sandy333]

How many players on our team start for okc?

We have a talent problem.

We have a talent development problem. Name one player who has improved significantly in 5 years.

Poole. He went from worst player in the nba as a rookie to whatever he is now.

We also have talent identification problem, why donot we flips our busts early enough instead of overvaluing them or trusting our non existent development to turn busts into superstars.

[cladden]

The talent on this team is fine. The team started the year on a winning run beating most of the top teams. They even won without Steph. But a bad patch has caused everyone to forget.

I don't think it's a bad patch. It's like last season. They are their record. They had an unbelievable hot streak.... and are 15-13, 8th in the West. It's time to acknowledge that the days of Steph being the best player on a championship team are likely over. He doesn't have 100 game seasons left in those legs anymore.

Kerr is not the issue.

100%. We're totally cooked and no coach could make this motley crew a contender. This is over and nothing will change it.

That being said I'm ready for a new coach and for Curry and Draymond to retire. We got nothing but we do have our own picks.

[East Bay Sports]

The talent on this team is fine. The team started the year on a winning run beating most of the top teams. They even won without Steph. But a bad patch has caused everyone to forget.

I don't think it's a bad patch. It's like last season. They are their record. They had an unbelievable hot streak.... and are 15-13, 8th in the West. It's time to acknowledge that the days of Steph being the best player on a championship team are likely over. He doesn't have 100 game seasons left in those legs anymore.

Kerr is not the issue.

100%. We're totally cooked and no coach could make this motley crew a contender. This is over and nothing will change it.

That being said I'm ready for a new coach and for Curry and Draymond to retire. We got nothing but we do have our own picks.

I never envisioned Kerr staying beyond Curry but I've also never heard anything that says that is for sure the plan. Just felt like they would go out together

[Onus]

Kerr is a basketball dinosaur with his lineups. Why in 2024-2025 are we playing only a single shooter in lineups? This is not the 90s.

[Onus]

Anyone have any theories as to why Kerr scraped the stotts offense after 5 games?

[jaymo123]

Anyone have any theories as to why Kerr scraped the stotts offense after 5 games?

Because they were winning. Don't want to give credit to another coach.

[Sandy333]

Kerr always has the deer in the headlight look. Confused as well, that is first give away , he is on stage too big for him. He faked with steph, and KD, with steph decline and league wising up, we have no chance. We have atleast 10 people from every the draft performing better in thier first than newbies we have had for couple of years.
Stop this love affair with your players and get some better pieces or draft picks.
This warrior family philosophy isn't working. Guys are misusing thus snd shirking off or are not upto any good.
Wiggins after 2 seasons of shirking off is playing better thus year, donno if it is because he senses this is atrade year.

[CDM_Stats]

The talent on this team is fine. The team started the year on a winning run beating most of the top teams. They even won without Steph. But a bad patch has caused everyone to forget.

I don't think it's a bad patch. It's like last season. They are their record. They had an unbelievable hot streak.... and are 15-13, 8th in the West. It's time to acknowledge that the days of Steph being the best player on a championship team are likely over. He doesn't have 100 game seasons left in those legs anymore.

Kerr is not the issue.

100%. We're totally cooked and no coach could make this motley crew a contender. This is over and nothing will change it.

That being said I'm ready for a new coach and for Curry and Draymond to retire. We got nothing but we do have our own picks.

Guys, the first 3 sentences in this thread:
Look, I dont think the team is a contender even when they are maxing out. Or at least its a slim as hell chance. But it would be just super if we came anywhere near what that max is.

If you're saying if we're not contending then its all the same, I'd 100000% disagree with that too. Because trade value matters, find roles that the young players can increase their value in matters.. but most importantly, Kerr owes it to Steph to help put the best team out there, contention or not. THAT is the point, not that Kerr is Mark Jacksoning a championship roster. And the problem is that he's not even close to what the numbers say he can be. Those are ideal numbers and they obviously aren't 100% accurate, but do you look at this team, and the way Kerr puts his lineups together, and think he's doing a good job?

Better rotations = better trade value. Or, if you're feeling really optimistic, some good health plus some lucky breaks can make the team go further in the playoffs than their talent dictates. But aside from unlikely player growth (JK, Podz, TJD, Moody) or a fountain of youth, no one thing is going to be more impactful to the team than Kerr managing the rotations better

[CDM_Stats]

Anyone have any theories as to why Kerr scraped the stotts offense after 5 games?

What is the Stotts offense? I've been really trying to avoid media scrums and coachspeak for a while.. its too frustrating to listen to

[Sandy333]

Now we hear there are player only meeting before the Lakers loss. A first for GSW? has Kerr lost the team ?
Naaaa.. Kerr I believe is hand in glove with some seniors in this team. They scratch his back and Vice versa. Remember a high efforts wining run of games by gsw team last year just before Steve signed on record extension.

[vvoland]

I don't think it's a bad patch. It's like last season. They are their record. They had an unbelievable hot streak.... and are 15-13, 8th in the West. It's time to acknowledge that the days of Steph being the best player on a championship team are likely over. He doesn't have 100 game seasons left in those legs anymore.

Kerr is not the issue.

100%. We're totally cooked and no coach could make this motley crew a contender. This is over and nothing will change it.

That being said I'm ready for a new coach and for Curry and Draymond to retire. We got nothing but we do have our own picks.

Guys, the first 3 sentences in this thread:
Look, I dont think the team is a contender even when they are maxing out. Or at least its a slim as hell chance. But it would be just super if we came anywhere near what that max is.

If you're saying if we're not contending then its all the same, I'd 100000% disagree with that too. Because trade value matters, find roles that the young players can increase their value in matters.. but most importantly, Kerr owes it to Steph to help put the best team out there, contention or not. THAT is the point, not that Kerr is Mark Jacksoning a championship roster. And the problem is that he's not even close to what the numbers say he can be. Those are ideal numbers and they obviously aren't 100% accurate, but do you look at this team, and the way Kerr puts his lineups together, and think he's doing a good job?

Better rotations = better trade value. Or, if you're feeling really optimistic, some good health plus some lucky breaks can make the team go further in the playoffs than their talent dictates. But aside from unlikely player growth (JK, Podz, TJD, Moody) or a fountain of youth, no one thing is going to be more impactful to the team than Kerr managing the rotations better

This is the part that hurts. Whether it's to Steph, the org, the fans, or just the guy that signs the checks, Kerr owes it to some/all of the above to put out the best team he can. I'm sure he thinks that's what he's doing but, at this point, the question seems super obvious: why do Steph/buddy/dray/wigs play so little together when it's the most obvious 4 man core?

I get that buddy is super careless and trioing him with Steph and dray is a tough mix when it comes to decision making. That said, the rest of Steve's options have been struggling, to put it mildly. Especially offensively. Especially late in games.

But forget the lineups for a second. In 3 years, the warriors haven't looked outclassed very often. In fact, they've played the best teams very well. Most often, they have lost late in games, suffering from poor decisions, mainly by their stars. Most of the ways they've lost have been on the edges, things that scream coaching, not talent.

It'd be one thing if they just couldn't compete with the okc and Bostons of the world but they beat those teams often enough to hint at better potential than what we've been seeing. And there are enough low hanging fruit for even the most disparate fans to agree on some basic strategy that Kerr seems to not apply, or at least not often enough (lineups, late game situations, player development/management, etc).

I have never been on the fire Steve bandwagon but, at this point, I'm coming around on cdm's thoughts that I've inferred to be: "judge him by how close the team is to maxing out it's potential not by who's available to replace him." I'd rather try a consolidation trade to make the lineup decisions really simple for Steve and if Santos starts getting minutes, fire him him then, but you can now talk me into doing it earlier

[Crazy-Canuck]

In the past, kerr would figure something out, something that he could exploit during a game. It was rarely immediate.

I'm praying this it. He is still experimenting with line ups and what some could also guess is trying integrate the 2 time lines approach.

I'm also guessing that the one skill set kerr is hung up on is ball handling. It's why he is forcing guys like podz, Schroeder etc..into more minutes, yet is hesitant to put moody or even heild out there.

In 2022, we won with klay as the sg; a non ball handler. We did perfectly fine with steph, wiggins, and dray bringing up the ball and getting into our sets.

One thing we do need, is 2 way play in the closing line up or scoring. We lost that with poole. We lost that with opj. And we lost that with melton.

Jk theoretically can score, but we get a spacing and defense issue.

We can close with heild as long as we doesn't dribble, but kerr didn't want it.

Schroeder should be our 4th or best closer, but he's struggling playing with the starters.

Loon creates space for steph, but spacing is a problem again.

I also love gp2 with steph, dray, and wiggins. But he's hurt again.

Kerr needs to pick a lane and stick to it. And give it an extended run. Right now, I don't care who the 3rd, 4th, and 5th guys are around steph abd wiggins. We need to start setting some consistency.

[Crazy-Canuck]

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Bring him home.