Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[TheBlackCzar]

LaMelo is indifferent on D, is streaky/takes games off, is oft-injured, and has done nothing to justify being a franchise cornerstone. The talent flashes, and you’re like: THIS guy. But it’s fool’s gold.

Maxey has … maxey-mized his potential, relative to what he was expected to be coming out of Kentucky. A really terrific player.

Ant is Ant.

And Deni? Deni has levels left to unlock. The story on the draft is not yet complete. A shame he has to be on that trainwreck of a squad, but he’s already shown himself to be the Blazers’ most valuable player.

And — not to cause a meltdown here or anything, but after last night’s tantalizing teases from Sarr and Cool-baller — how nice he’d look for the rebuild. : )))))

Deni is not going to be better than any of those 4 regardless of how you wanna slice it... He's not a star, won't be a star, because he doesn't have the game for that role... He's a role player at best and that's what he is.. Nothing wrong with that, but these guys are already or have already been all stars.... He's not going to jump ahead of any of them no matter how he develops... No matter how often you wanna cape for this dude, it doesn't alter reality to fit your narrative...

[payitforward]

... Our only success story of a guy who turned out to be better than the guys ahead or behind him has been Deni. It's why this thread will crack 100 pages before the season is out.

That last sentence is incorrect as Halliburton and Maxey were drafted after Deni, and they are much better players than him... Also Ant Man and LaMelo ball were drafted before him, again vastly superior players....

In no draft ever at all has there been a significant correlation between pick position & performance across the whole of round 1. At least I sure can't find such a draft.

As to 2020, you can add Quickley & Bane -- taken at 26 & 30 -- to the list of players who've been better than Deni so far. Probably Pritchard (28) as well. As far as that goes it'd be fair to add the #52 pick to the list that year (KMart Jr.).

[Dat2U]

LaMelo is indifferent on D, is streaky/takes games off, is oft-injured, and has done nothing to justify being a franchise cornerstone. The talent flashes, and you’re like: THIS guy. But it’s fool’s gold.

Maxey has … maxey-mized his potential, relative to what he was expected to be coming out of Kentucky. A really terrific player.

Ant is Ant.

And Deni? Deni has levels left to unlock. The story on the draft is not yet complete. A shame he has to be on that trainwreck of a squad, but he’s already shown himself to be the Blazers’ most valuable player.

And — not to cause a meltdown here or anything, but after last night’s tantalizing teases from Sarr and Cool-baller — how nice he’d look for the rebuild. : )))))

LaMelo is a basketball savant and a legit 1st or 2nd option. He doesn't flash, he consistently plays at an elite level. He's held back by having such a crappy roster with him with Brandon Miller as the other real shot creator and Miller is still growing into that role. That puts an enormous amount of pressure on LaMelo to be the offensive engine every single play.

[TheBlackCzar]

... Our only success story of a guy who turned out to be better than the guys ahead or behind him has been Deni. It's why this thread will crack 100 pages before the season is out.

That last sentence is incorrect as Halliburton and Maxey were drafted after Deni, and they are much better players than him... Also Ant Man and LaMelo ball were drafted before him, again vastly superior players....

In no draft ever at all has there been a significant correlation between pick position & performance across the whole of round 1. At least I sure can't find such a draft.

As to 2020, you can add Quickley & Bane -- taken at 26 & 30 -- to the list of players who've been better than Deni so far. Probably Pritchard (28) as well. As far as that goes it'd be fair to add the #52 pick to the list that year (KMart Jr.).

All I was doing was making a correction to his comment because when he said it I was curious as to if he was right, but when I went to go look I found he wasn't and just made it known..... I didn't look to find every example from that draft, just 2 above and 2 below was enough.... It's not like i have beef with Deni and I'm glad he got us some extra talent on our team.... I just want to see us do more than develop role players and get geeked off that...... If we make Bilal into a star then I'm going to be geeked.... But if he's just a role player I'll be somewhat disappointed.....

[badinage]

LaMelo is indifferent on D, is streaky/takes games off, is oft-injured, and has done nothing to justify being a franchise cornerstone. The talent flashes, and you’re like: THIS guy. But it’s fool’s gold.

Maxey has … maxey-mized his potential, relative to what he was expected to be coming out of Kentucky. A really terrific player.

Ant is Ant.

And Deni? Deni has levels left to unlock. The story on the draft is not yet complete. A shame he has to be on that trainwreck of a squad, but he’s already shown himself to be the Blazers’ most valuable player.

And — not to cause a meltdown here or anything, but after last night’s tantalizing teases from Sarr and Cool-baller — how nice he’d look for the rebuild. : )))))

Deni is not going to be better than any of those 4 regardless of how you wanna slice it... He's not a star, won't be a star, because he doesn't have the game for that role... He's a role player at best and that's what he is.. Nothing wrong with that, but these guys are already or have already been all stars.... He's not going to jump ahead of any of them no matter how he develops... No matter how often you wanna cape for this dude, it doesn't alter reality to fit your narrative...

It’s not about cape-ing for the dude.

And stars — there are levels to this, it’s not as simple as saying: stars vs. role players. Haliburton is a great player — but is he capable of taking a team of two other very good players and some role players to a title? No. Maxey’s really good — but he’s never gonna be one of the top 3 players on a title team.

I think a “role player” who can get 19 and 8 a game and plays very good D and boards up and passes is extremely valuable in this game. And I might prefer a guy like this to a low-rung “star” — I don’t mean Hali here — who needs a lot of shots and/or the ball in his hands all the time and takes off possessions.

[DCZards]

It’s not about cape-ing for the dude.

And stars — there are levels to this, it’s not as simple as saying: stars vs. role players. Haliburton is a great player — but is he capable of taking a team of two other very good players and some role players to a title? No. Maxey’s really good — but he’s never gonna be one of the top 3 players on a title team.

I think a “role player” who can get 19 and 8 a game and plays very good D and boards up and passes is extremely valuable in this game. And I might prefer a guy like this to a low-rung “star” — I don’t mean Hali here — who needs a lot of shots and/or the ball in his hands all the time and takes off possessions.

Ahhh…no. You always take stars like Haliburton and Maxey over role players like Deni. Love Deni but let’s not get crazy.

[doclinkin]

. Our only success story of a guy who turned out to be better than the guys ahead or behind him has been Deni. It's why this thread will crack 100 pages before the season is out.

That last sentence is incorrect as Halliburton and Maxey were drafted after Deni, and they are much better players than him... Also Ant Man and LaMelo ball were drafted before him, again vastly superior players....

Note I didn’t say ‘every’ player ahead or behind him. If so he’d be the best player in the draft. An all star or on track to be one.

I’m saying if your front office drafts guys better than guys picked ahead of them and generally better than those after, they’re doing a good job.

Here the 9th pick proved arguably better than #s 2,4,5,7,8,10 and most of the rest of the first round. If the Wizards could say that about all of their picks we wouldn’t be tanking right now. Deni proved good value for his draft position.

But looking back through Wizards history I’d say Trevor Booker was the last guy you could really say that about. Unless you count Andray Blanche. Until this year Kispert was on track to be in that conversation. But he fell off. Hopefully Bub and George will also make the list.

[TheBlackCzar]

LaMelo is indifferent on D, is streaky/takes games off, is oft-injured, and has done nothing to justify being a franchise cornerstone. The talent flashes, and you’re like: THIS guy. But it’s fool’s gold.

Maxey has … maxey-mized his potential, relative to what he was expected to be coming out of Kentucky. A really terrific player.

Ant is Ant.

And Deni? Deni has levels left to unlock. The story on the draft is not yet complete. A shame he has to be on that trainwreck of a squad, but he’s already shown himself to be the Blazers’ most valuable player.

And — not to cause a meltdown here or anything, but after last night’s tantalizing teases from Sarr and Cool-baller — how nice he’d look for the rebuild. : )))))

Deni is not going to be better than any of those 4 regardless of how you wanna slice it... He's not a star, won't be a star, because he doesn't have the game for that role... He's a role player at best and that's what he is.. Nothing wrong with that, but these guys are already or have already been all stars.... He's not going to jump ahead of any of them no matter how he develops... No matter how often you wanna cape for this dude, it doesn't alter reality to fit your narrative...

It’s not about cape-ing for the dude.

And stars — there are levels to this, it’s not as simple as saying: stars vs. role players. Haliburton is a great player — but is he capable of taking a team of two other very good players and some role players to a title? No. Maxey’s really good — but he’s never gonna be one of the top 3 players on a title team.

I think a “role player” who can get 19 and 8 a game and plays very good D and boards up and passes is extremely valuable in this game. And I might prefer a guy like this to a low-rung “star” — I don’t mean Hali here — who needs a lot of shots and/or the ball in his hands all the time and takes off possessions.

This 19 and 8 you keep touting is during a small stretch of this guys career.. These other players exceeded those number during the course of seasons.....


If Deni was avg 19 and 8 regularly then we really did sell low but at the time of trade he'd never displayed that level competency for an extended period of time......

[TheBlackCzar]

. Our only success story of a guy who turned out to be better than the guys ahead or behind him has been Deni. It's why this thread will crack 100 pages before the season is out.

That last sentence is incorrect as Halliburton and Maxey were drafted after Deni, and they are much better players than him... Also Ant Man and LaMelo ball were drafted before him, again vastly superior players....

Note I didn’t say ‘every’ player ahead or behind him. If so he’d be the best player in the draft. An all star or on track to be one.

I’m saying if your front office drafts guys better than guys picked ahead of them and generally better than those after, they’re doing a good job.

Here the 9th pick proved arguably better than #s 2,4,5,7,8,10 and most of the rest of the first round. If the Wizards could say that about all of their picks we wouldn’t be tanking right now. Deni proved good value for his draft position.

But looking back through Wizards history I’d say Trevor Booker was the last guy you could really say that about. Unless you count Andray Blanche. Until this year Kispert was on track to be in that conversation. But he fell off. Hopefully Bub and George will also make the list.

you did not and i stand corrected for misinterpreting what ya said.....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

OTH maybe the NBA isn't like that, maybe scouting to this is a bit of a different science in its own way. We certainly learned that the Sheppard years, where supposedly they were borderline picking based upon draft aggregation mocks as much as anything (not literally, but their picks almost perfectly matched, supposedly, what aggregators adp prospect should be selected, at slot, quite consistently)...so the herd style that seems to work better in the NFL maybe doesn't in the NBA.

The NFL doesn't have a 'one and done' issue, where you are picking players whose game is unformed. Most NFL draft picks have been through college and high school and flag football before that. You are not putting untested teenagers onto the floor. Also you have a lot of noise since there's more teamwork involved. The NFL is a war with a hundred people on the sidelines cycling in and out. Aside from the QB, very few individuals can carry a team by their sole performance and talent alone. And smart teams tend not to flip their QB out from year to year since the systems are so complex.

The NBA is the exact opposite. One guy does make all the difference. Only 5 guys play at one time. Each guy plays both offense and defense. The team that drafts the most talented players wins, almost regardless of coach or system or organization. More often than not if you had LeBJ over the past 20 years, you won deep into the playoffs. Those players tend to show up early on scouts' radar. If you don't have a top 3 pick you are not getting that guy. Top 5 if you're are talking about guards. If you don't have that guy, you're looking for roleplayers or hoping for a lucky accident.

Thing is: some late bloomers slip through the cracks. Or young talented players who jump early before they are formed. Or overseas players that scouts have less eyes-on evaluation of. Talented 2-way players who impose their will at both ends. Kobe. Giannis. Kawhi. PG13. Jokic. If you luck into one of these guys you have a chance. So you want a safety net of mid-round picks to try to catch the guys who slip through the cracks for one reason or another. An injury. A late growth spurt. A player who is younger than anyone else in his draft class. A guy who was hidden overseas. A player with a fixable flaw. Here is where you are hoping to get lucky. But those guys do slip in the draft into the early teens. There is a 2nd plateau a few slots after the lottery before the curve dips into a long smooth dive.

Guys like Jerry West and Larry Legend could see a player and in a few seconds know if he had it. I recall Bob Knight said about Stef that he was the best Point Guard he had ever seen at any level. He said this about the freshman Stef. And was talking about his passing and understanding of the game and his timing, not his shooting skill. Game knows game.

Its early to tell if the Winger Dawkins positional size fixation will pan out. I get it when people complain that we are not recruiting guys who already know how to shoot and score. But if you have long athletic guys who can cover a lot of space, it should help the defense. Me I like players who have shown they know how to defend. Because its like in soccer, nobody is fast enough to chase a pass, you have to anticipate and know the angles and spacing to defend well. So a smart player can often be a better defender than a taller more athletic one. Or you know, you can pick a guy who has both like Deni. I dunno.

But more chances is what they're getting us. Extra picks every year. Yeah it would be nice if it were this year or next, but still, we are adding the chance to add chances. Expiring contracts with value attached. A rotation at the end of the bench to try out scrappy guys like Champagnie or Butler who might be add-ons to sweeten a trade. Giving a shot to highschool standouts like Marvin or PBJr. A chance to rehab a career for a guy like Poole. An injured player inked cheap since he will be recuperating most of the year. And dozens of 2nd round picks to be used as fluid capital. Seems to me they have a system. Plans within plans. Even if it has only resulted in losses right now. Still, that's the plan. For now.

I like to look at things besides players tall for their position.

What do Dejuan Butler, Ty Jerome, DeAndre Hunter, Jay Huff, Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Christian Braun, and Ochai Ogbaji have in common. All were NCAA Champions.

Chet Holmgren lost in the championship game. He belongs.

I believe in drafting known peak performers. I KNEW it was a mistake when the Wizards dropped Jay Huff.

Last: I go by the raw numbers.

Johni Broome is going to go later than he should. He's going to be a Boozer or a Millsap with range. Broome, Eric Dixon, and Kam Jones, along with Derik Queen, are the players I love in this draft.

Dylan Harper will be a superstar, perhaps; but I would rather see the core we have plus ballers added. The guys I listed will hit the NBA like Dalton Knecht, and Cameron Thomas did. Like Jaime Jacquez did. Broome, Dixon, Jones, and old school Derik Queen will all be solid players.

Draft winners. Draft statistically dominant players. Don't keep drafting 18-year-olds who you think have potential.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Consiglieri is correct -- you can't count on being smarter than the other guy about prospects.

Doesn't mean there aren't exceptions; sure there are. But I don't think they scale. In the long run they don't make the difference.

Not to mention that there's always evidence in the other direction: e.g. the same GS geniuses who were smart enough to take Draymond Green at 35 had just taken Festus Ezeli at 30 !!

. Our only success story of a guy who turned out to be better than the guys ahead or behind him has been Deni. It's why this thread will crack 100 pages before the season is out.

That last sentence is incorrect as Halliburton and Maxey were drafted after Deni, and they are much better players than him... Also Ant Man and LaMelo ball were drafted before him, again vastly superior players....

Note I didn’t say ‘every’ player ahead or behind him. If so he’d be the best player in the draft. An all star or on track to be one.

I’m saying if your front office drafts guys better than guys picked ahead of them and generally better than those after, they’re doing a good job.

Here the 9th pick proved arguably better than #s 2,4,5,7,8,10 and most of the rest of the first round. If the Wizards could say that about all of their picks we wouldn’t be tanking right now. Deni proved good value for his draft position.

But looking back through Wizards history I’d say Trevor Booker was the last guy you could really say that about. Unless you count Andray Blanche. Until this year Kispert was on track to be in that conversation. But he fell off. Hopefully Bub and George will also make the list.

Andray Blatche could be a Bobby Portis in today's NBA.

[doclinkin]

their position.

What do Dejuan Butler, Ty Jerome, DeAndre Hunter, Jay Huff, Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Christian Braun, and Ochai Ogbaji have in common. All were NCAA Champions.

Chet Holmgren lost in the championship game. He belongs.

I believe in drafted known peak performers. I KNEW it was a mistake when the Wizards dropped Jay Huff.

Last: I go by the raw numbers.

Johni Broome is going to go later than he should he's going to be a Boozer or a Millsap with range. Broome, Eric Dixon, and Kam Jones, along with Derik Queen, are the players I love in this draft.

Dylan Harper will be a superstar, perhaps; but I would rather see the core we have plus ballers added. The guys I listed will hit the NBA like Dalton Knecht, and Cameron Thomas did. Like Jaime Jacquez did. Broome, Dixon, Jones, and old school Derik Queen will all be solid players.

Draft winners. Draft statistically dominant players. Don't keep drafting 18-year-olds who you think have potential.

Same. I look for track record. Players who do the difficult things. The stats that only show up with effort and hard work. Understanding of the game.

Defensive rebounding relative to position. Assists by non ball dominant positions. These are stats that show awareness of the team game and a willingness to sacrifice yourself to make the right play. BBIQ. You know where every player is on both teams.

Free throw percentage. Three point shooting. These only show up in players who practice by themselves. Who love the game enough to get to the gym early. Stay late. Who are mentally strong and not streaky. Who repeat success until it is second nature.

I look for the most important player on a championship team. The team leader and the defensive stalwart. The clutch shooter. The late game hero who demands the ball. Makes the right play under pressure. The competitive rage and earned arrogance of a guy who wants the spotlight and hates to lose.

And I look for a track record of improvement. Do the stats above get better over time, fewer TOs and fouls, higher %’s.

That’s the Memphis draft strategy. They’ll pick a guy of any shape or size who shows these things. Not just a tall guy who lucked into his size and athleticism. Who might shrink when faced with other tall athletes and is no longer dominant. A guy who succeeds despite doubts about size or slow feet or whatever. Zack Edey is a perfect example.

But whatever. I’ve always been better at picking the late draft standouts than the early lotto heroes. There’s no track record to go by. And you can’t catch late bloomers like Giannis or PG13. Or phenoms like Kobe. This FO is swinging for the home run looking for those development standouts. Guys with room to improve.

At least in Bub they picked a guy who checks boxes for me. Rebounds. Assists. Improvement over time in his freshman season. High FT%. Low turnover rates. Which suggests he will equal or pass the guy they jettisoned to make room for him. And hopefully they get other guys with the extra picks who do show both love of the game and willingness to fight to get better.

[payitforward]

in 2020:
dD

...the 9th pick (i.e. Deni) proved arguably better than #s 2,4,5,7,8,10 and most of the rest of the first round....

Absolutely.

...If the Wizards could say that about all of their picks we wouldn’t be tanking right now.....

& of course, no team will ever be able to say it about "all of their picks." It's just about good vs. less good (or, in our case, just plain bad).

[dobrojim]

Watching Blazers. Their announcers seem to really like
Deni. For mostly the things we liked about him here.
But he also can frustrate you, also kinda like he did here.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Watch on YouTube

But, but he can't go left...

First time he's cracked 30 (barely) minutes in a game in all of December because Billups is a silly coach.

Bordering on most underrated player in the league due to first the incompetence of WUJ, now Billups. Both had/have love affairs with chucking forwards (Kuzma and Grant) that look "cool" when shooting it.

[DCZards]

Watched last night’s Portland game. Deni was awesome in the 4th quarter.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Deni is not going to be better than any of those 4 regardless of how you wanna slice it... He's not a star, won't be a star, because he doesn't have the game for that role... He's a role player at best and that's what he is.. Nothing wrong with that, but these guys are already or have already been all stars.... He's not going to jump ahead of any of them no matter how he develops... No matter how often you wanna cape for this dude, it doesn't alter reality to fit your narrative...

It’s not about cape-ing for the dude.

And stars — there are levels to this, it’s not as simple as saying: stars vs. role players. Haliburton is a great player — but is he capable of taking a team of two other very good players and some role players to a title? No. Maxey’s really good — but he’s never gonna be one of the top 3 players on a title team.

I think a “role player” who can get 19 and 8 a game and plays very good D and boards up and passes is extremely valuable in this game. And I might prefer a guy like this to a low-rung “star” — I don’t mean Hali here — who needs a lot of shots and/or the ball in his hands all the time and takes off possessions.

This 19 and 8 you keep touting is during a small stretch of this guys career.. These other players exceeded those number during the course of seasons.....


If Deni was avg 19 and 8 regularly then we really did sell low but at the time of trade he'd never displayed that level competency for an extended period of time......

Easy explanation, he's had moron coaches. WUJ was awful, Billups is pretty much there too, this isn't a surprise. He started to do this at the tail-end of WUJ's tenure and did so through the duration of Coach K because he was given consistent minutes. Go read the Blazers forums on SB Nation, it's basically a topic every game that Deni isn't getting enough minutes and that Billups will unexplicably bench him or not put him in for long stretches. Does this sound familiar? Oh yeah, WUJ all over again.

Last night was a perfect example, Billups wasn't coaching for the game and Deni got his first night of 30 minutes for the entire month of December despite having played great all month. There's just no reason that either Grant and Camara should routinely be getting more minutes than him aside from a coach that has his favorites which is another constant topic on those Blazer chats.

Pity Deni has had the bad luck of having to play with two moronic franchises along with bad coaches. Imagine Deni in GS, BOS, OKC, NY, SA, etc., this dude would be talked about all the time. He's just has had the bad luck of being on a franchise that has been almost entirely irrelevant for the last 50 years then gets shipped up to the Pacific NW.

[badinage]

Great game from him last night. Buckets, boards, dimes. Led them to a win.

They need to wake up to the reality — as he goes, so goes their team.

I hope Bub realizes his potential. I really do. I don’t see burst, and that’s big. I think he can get a shot down. He’s tough. He boards. But without that burst … I dunno.

I’d rather have Deni. Much, much rather have Deni.

[TGW]

Great game from him last night. Buckets, boards, dimes. Led them to a win.

They need to wake up to the reality — as he goes, so goes their team.

I hope Bub realizes his potential. I really do. I don’t see burst, and that’s big. I think he can get a shot down. He’s tough. He boards. But without that burst … I dunno.

I’d rather have Deni. Much, much rather have Deni.

Yea, Carrington lacks explosiveness and doesn't possess point guard vision. I'm not overly impressed with him. But he does look like 10+ year NBA player. And he has a good head on his shoulders. But I'd take Deni over him 10/10.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It’s not about cape-ing for the dude.

And stars — there are levels to this, it’s not as simple as saying: stars vs. role players. Haliburton is a great player — but is he capable of taking a team of two other very good players and some role players to a title? No. Maxey’s really good — but he’s never gonna be one of the top 3 players on a title team.

I think a “role player” who can get 19 and 8 a game and plays very good D and boards up and passes is extremely valuable in this game. And I might prefer a guy like this to a low-rung “star” — I don’t mean Hali here — who needs a lot of shots and/or the ball in his hands all the time and takes off possessions.

This 19 and 8 you keep touting is during a small stretch of this guys career.. These other players exceeded those number during the course of seasons.....


If Deni was avg 19 and 8 regularly then we really did sell low but at the time of trade he'd never displayed that level competency for an extended period of time......

Easy explanation, he's had moron coaches. WUJ was awful, Billups is pretty much there too, this isn't a surprise. He started to do this at the tail-end of WUJ's tenure and did so through the duration of Coach K because he was given consistent minutes. Go read the Blazers forums on SB Nation, it's basically a topic every game that Deni isn't getting enough minutes and that Billups will unexplicably bench him or not put him in for long stretches. Does this sound familiar? Oh yeah, WUJ all over again.

Last night was a perfect example, Billups wasn't coaching for the game and Deni got his first night of 30 minutes for the entire month of December despite having played great all month. There's just no reason that either Grant and Camara should routinely be getting more minutes than him aside from a coach that has his favorites which is another constant topic on those Blazer chats.

Pity Deni has had the bad luck of having to play with two moronic franchises along with bad coaches. Imagine Deni in GS, BOS, OKC, NY, SA, etc., this dude would be talked about all the time. He's just has had the bad luck of being on a franchise that has been almost entirely irrelevant for the last 50 years then gets shipped up to the Pacific NW.

Perhaps Billups is racist.

Or, he's not objective when evaluating Avdija.