QB Contracts 2025 and beyond

[wco81]

Copied over from the NFC North thread. I think this topic deserves its own thread.

the qb salary market is messed up
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/player/_/year/2024/position/qb/sort/contract_average

why aren't we paying average qb's average money? drops off a cliff once you get to baker mayfield

Because teams are foolish. Guys like Dak should not be making more than twice as much as Geno on average.

Ya the QB market is in the bubble phase and sooner rather than later its going to burst. There is practically no middle class for the QB market right now.

Baker and Geno are kind of the rare exception because they were both viewed as busts, but both were viewed as guys with potential. So they got this kind of the middle ground prove it/long term(ish) deals. And a good chance Sam Darnold joins this group as well.

But either than that, its really just the next group of QBs that have shown something end up being the next group of the highest paid QBs. I mean 4 of the top 5 highest paid QBs right now are Dak, Lawrence, Love and Tua.

While in all honesty there are probably 4-5 QBs that deserve that big time money. Mahones, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar (I can see the argument for Herbert). But thats about it. You give guys like Shanahan, McVay, O'Connell, Johnson, Payton solid QBs. And they can turn them into these borderline stars.

Outside of that group of 4-5 guys. There should be a big drop off from the 55+ per year to a group of guys making that 25-30 per year range. That is your Dak, Geno, Baker, Kyler, Hurts, Purdy, Darnold (after this year), and probably a couple other ones. Then you should have tested older vets and young guys.

And this is why I wont be shocked if Minny lets Darnold walk and if SF lets Purdy walk. These teams can save their money on the QB spot, load it up to the rest of the roster. Then trust their offensive guru coaches to coach up solid QB talent to be top 10ish QBs for cheap.

There's reporting that Purdy is going to get over $55 million a year.

49ers have given out huge contracts in recent years, to Bosa, Aiyuk and then big extensions this year to also Trent Williams and CMC.

Shanahan has made some very horrific personnel decisions so it wouldn't surprise me if he gives Purdy a big extension and he doesn't live up to it and/or the team declines and it gets weighed down with so many huge contracts which can no longer be jusfitifed because the team isn't as competitive.

As for Darnold, Vikings probably didn't expect to be in this situation, win 13 games potentially be the #1 seed in the NFC at this point in the season.

Plus have a first-round QB as well, the #10 pick in fact, whom they must be bullish on.

If McCarthy could start and produce at a high level starting next season, that's a huge win for the franchise, get a good QB on a rookie deal. Don't know their cap situation but they'd have a better roster if McCarthy became the starter and they didn't have to pay Darnold even a "bargain" like $30 million.

But maybe they have very high expectations now, regardless of what happens the rest of this year and in the postseason.

Either it's a dream season and they win it all or they tasted success and they will want to at least be in this position again a year from now.

So keep Darnold if he goes for a couple of years at $30-35 million. Otherwise, make McCarthy the starter and spend that money elsewhere to strengthen the roster.

[wco81]

About 3-4 weeks ago, Russell Wilson might have been in line for a big contract extension from the Steelers in the offseason.

But he's played badly and the team has come to face with the fact that they probably can't hang with the top AFC teams.

Still, do they have a choice? They're going to need a starter next season and both Wilson and Fields are free agents after the season.

They have a roster with some stars and they're going to have to pay Pickens. They probably don't want to wait another few seasons to find their franchise QB, presumably because they think they have a good enough roster aside from QB.

Despite the bad ints in these big games, he still has only 5 ints in 10 games. But also only 15 TDs. Probably not enough to get the job done in the playoffs.

But Steelers may have to give a 36-year old contract some kind of big extension.

[Duke4life831]

I think it would take Darnold leading the Vikings to the Super Bowl for the Vikings to give him a big deal.

Now I will say this, unless he burns out the last couple weeks and in the playoffs I think they just let him walk. But if he keeps up this level of play, I do think the Vikings will tag him and try to trade him.

But ya if I’m one of these high level offensive gurus, I’m not giving out a big deal for a QB unless he’s truly different. Basically if you’re the Vikings it really just comes down to.

Now I don’t think any expects JJ to be a borderline top 5 QB like Darnold has played this year. But is KOC truly this QB whisperer and if he is, can he maybe get JJ to play somewhere in he 9-13 range of QBs next year. If so, you then save 40+ mil in salary which you can put elsewhere and that can have a huge impact.

Same thing if I’m the Niners. Instead of giving Purdy a big deal. I’d rather save the money and go with a trusted aging vet, or a younger raw guy that other teams have given up on (Fields, Willis and so on).

[Cactus Jack]

Now I don’t think any expects JJ to be a borderline top 5 QB like Darnold has played this year. But is KOC truly this QB whisperer and if he is, can he maybe get JJ to play somewhere in he 9-13 range of QBs next year. If so, you then save 40+ mil in salary which you can put elsewhere and that can have a huge impact.

They should've moved up to take Penix. If not, then I would've taken Nix.

Can they not tag Darnold in the offseason?

[Duke4life831]

Now I don’t think any expects JJ to be a borderline top 5 QB like Darnold has played this year. But is KOC truly this QB whisperer and if he is, can he maybe get JJ to play somewhere in he 9-13 range of QBs next year. If so, you then save 40+ mil in salary which you can put elsewhere and that can have a huge impact.

They should've moved up to take Penix. If not, then I would've taken Nix.

Can they not tag Darnold in the offseason?

I would’ve been cool with Penix. But happy with the JJ pick. He kept climbing my board all season long last year.

I would’ve been so pissed if they ended up with Nix. Even though Payton is turning him into his perfect little system QB haha.

Ya they can tag Darnold. And I think that’s what they will end up doing, but won’t keep him. I think they will end up tagging and trading him.

The issue with tagging is, there is no creative cap work with that number. It’s all just a 1 season hit. So there basically goes all of Minny’s cap room this offseason (they have like the 6th or 7th most). So it will basically be running back with this year’s team.

If they keep him, I assume it will be on like a 3/120 deal with an out after 2. Outside of that, I think they tag and trade, or just let him walk.

[Cactus Jack]

Now I don’t think any expects JJ to be a borderline top 5 QB like Darnold has played this year. But is KOC truly this QB whisperer and if he is, can he maybe get JJ to play somewhere in he 9-13 range of QBs next year. If so, you then save 40+ mil in salary which you can put elsewhere and that can have a huge impact.

They should've moved up to take Penix. If not, then I would've taken Nix.

Can they not tag Darnold in the offseason?

I would’ve been cool with Penix. But happy with the JJ pick. He kept climbing my board all season long last year.

I would’ve been so pissed if they ended up with Nix. Even though Payton is turning him into his perfect little system QB haha.

Ya they can tag Darnold. And I think that’s what they will end up doing, but won’t keep him. I think they will end up tagging and trading him.

The issue with tagging is, there is no creative cap work with that number. It’s all just a 1 season hit. So there basically goes all of Minny’s cap room this offseason (they have like the 6th or 7th most). So it will basically be running back with this year’s team.

If they keep him, I assume it will be on like a 3/120 deal with an out after 2. Outside of that, I think they tag and trade, or just let him walk.

I guess it's just one of those years where everything seems to be working. Not to say that it's a fluke thing. But Minnesota has won a lot of close games, right? To be 13-2 or whatever their record is. I didn't see that coming if I'm being honest.

I've actually been more impressed with Green Bay. Jacobs is a stud. Obviously, Detroit has been very good. But I'm still not completely sold on Minnesota tbh. Honestly, I thought the Hawks were going to win that game until Geno threw that pick lol.

[wco81]

If they tag Darnold, doesn’t it automatically require 2 first round picks? I don’t see too many teams giving that up.

[El Turco]

Purdy essentially played for free last 3 years there is no way he takes anything less than the max market value, which will be in the range of 60 mil. He has proven he can win in the playoffs including come back from behind when necessary, he deserves a chance for few years but they need to structure his contract in a way where Niners can cut him with relatively low dead money in 2-3 years. They cant accept Watson or Dak type of fully guaranteed contract.

[Cactus Jack]

SF does not have a ton of great options. Paying Purdy puts them in a bind. Especially with an aging roster.

[El Turco]

They contended with a worse quarterback and a roster before, it will be a-ok.

[Cactus Jack]

Paying a non-elite QB that kind of money hasn't been beneficial for teams. They also have the oldest roster. A lot of their key cogs are getting up in age. Trent Williams & Kittle. CMC is a 29 year old RB coming off an injury plagued season. Deebo has looked disinterested & washed. He's likely gone.

[El Turco]

There is 65 million in cap space this off season to work with, plus great picks. As long as they dont give full guarantees like Dak and Watson, or settle for mediocrity long term with a Geno type of quarterback everything can be rebuilt or retooled.

Deebo was gone the second Aiyuk signed the contract lol, nothing to do with him being disinterested.

[bluejerseyjinx]

There is 65 million in cap space this off season to work with, plus great picks. As long as they dont give full guarantees like Dak and Watson, or settle for mediocrity long term with a Geno type of quarterback everything can be rebuild or retooled.

Deebo was gone the second Aiyuk signed the contract lol, nothing to do with him being disinterested.

Your a Chiefs fan now so why do you care?

[El Turco]

There is 65 million in cap space this off season to work with, plus great picks. As long as they dont give full guarantees like Dak and Watson, or settle for mediocrity long term with a Geno type of quarterback everything can be rebuild or retooled.

Deebo was gone the second Aiyuk signed the contract lol, nothing to do with him being disinterested.

Your a Chiefs fan now so why do you care?

I'd like to scout my super bowl opponents early

[bluejerseyjinx]

There is 65 million in cap space this off season to work with, plus great picks. As long as they dont give full guarantees like Dak and Watson, or settle for mediocrity long term with a Geno type of quarterback everything can be rebuild or retooled.

Deebo was gone the second Aiyuk signed the contract lol, nothing to do with him being disinterested.

Your a Chiefs fan now so why do you care?

I'd like to scout my super bowl opponents early

Whiners are no match for the Chiefs. You should know that by now.

[bluejerseyjinx]

There is 65 million in cap space this off season to work with, plus great picks. As long as they dont give full guarantees like Dak and Watson, or settle for mediocrity long term with a Geno type of quarterback everything can be rebuild or retooled.

Deebo was gone the second Aiyuk signed the contract lol, nothing to do with him being disinterested.

Your a Chiefs fan now so why do you care?

I'd like to scout my super bowl opponents early

You think Sam Darnold will show his true colors this week and in the playoffs? Like 1 and done?

[El Turco]

Your a Chiefs fan now so why do you care?

I'd like to scout my super bowl opponents early

Whiners are no match for the Chiefs. You should know that by now.

I know I've been following Chiefs for life, but they play each other in super bowl often

[El Turco]

Your a Chiefs fan now so why do you care?

I'd like to scout my super bowl opponents early

You think Sam Darnold will show his true colors this week and in the playoffs? Like 1 and done?

Depends on who they play but I have little more hope than that, rest of their squad is very good and play calling on both sides have been top notch. I could see them in Conference finals or semis.

[QB_Eagles]

I really wonder if QBs would be making this much if teams just let them hit free agency.

One of the few times that actually happened, the Vikings paid Cousins because they otherwise had a great roster but would they make the same decision again in hindsight?

Imagine next offseason, Darnold, Purdy, Dak all hit free agency, are they really gonna rake in big money? Russell Wilson? Are they really going to be worth that much more when teams can pick between them and a Jameis Winston?

I used to think GMs were just afraid of their jobs and therefore going with the proven commodity at the QB position even if that commodity isn't all that great.

But then Jerry Jones extended Dak for 60 mil/year and he's a GM who doesn't have to fear for his job, so what do I know.

[El Turco]

I think some team would give a good contract to Purdy, he is younger and have some track record in playoffs. For Darnold a lot depends on how he performs in playoffs, I dont think anyone would have fully guaranteed Dak's contract even if they'd paid him.

I assume there is quite a bit input from ownerships when it comes to signing quarterbacks, most just want butts on the seats. Jerry is a *special* case.