Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it

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Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#1 » by jayjaysee » Sat Dec 28, 2024 4:48 pm

Some bad ideas.

Dallas: Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber, 2025 first (top 10 protected), 2025 Philly 2nd
Dallas: Nikola Vucevic, Champagnie

Dallas’ last move isn’t that exciting for the fan base. They get an offensive hub for the second unit in Vucevic, whether he’s the starter or not. And they hope Champagnie continues to work on his defense, as he has this season. If he does continue to develop into a two way player, you have a 25mpg wing making near the minimum for at least next season

SAS: Zach Collins, Julian Champagnie, 1-2 future 2nds
SAS: Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber, 2025 Dallas first

SAS trades for another first as they don’t feel they’re ready to trade for talent. Gafford does come in and help immediately though and might be a long term piece behind and small minute next to Wemb... If Maxi remembers how to shoot, he’s an ideal forward to be able to plug I. next to Wemby for a couple years.

Chicago: Vucecic
Chicago: Collins and 2-3 seconds

Chicago gets 2-3 seconds for Vucevic and can be the third team to hope Collins. But realistically, this starts the tank that should have started early.


For value? I look at it as Julian being worth more than Gafford and the first/seconds canceling that out. Or Julian being worth the first, and Gafford for seconds..

on Dallas’ end, I think Gafford and Vuc probably have similar values? So you’re paying for Julian mostly?

And Maxi/Collins/Vuc money being included, sort of takes the money aspect out of it in my valuation outside of Julian being such a bargain for a year and a half.

I’m saying a year and a half, because I assume if he continues to develop, you decline his player option and get him locked up as long and cheap as the two sides agree on in 18 months..
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#2 » by Mavrelous » Sat Dec 28, 2024 4:59 pm

I have this as terrible for Dallas and fantastic for SAS who should be cut if Dallas fancied paying Gafford + 1st + 2nd for Vuc
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#3 » by wemby » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:06 pm

Hmm. I don't think Mavs mess with their center rotation, it works too well for them.

As for the Spurs, the FRP is likely more like a swap in that they're likely getting a late first rounder for possibly an early second. Spurs could really use Gafford too, but honestly I don't want to move Champagnie. Some Spurs fans may disagree with me, but he's been possibly the best wing on the Spurs this season, he's 23 and has 2 more seasons beyond this one at 3 million per year. Rather than using him as bait, Spurs should just try to renegotiate and extend as soon as they can to get him long term for a much more reasonable contract. He may not be a future star but he's the kind of role player every winning team needs, including the Spurs.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#4 » by wemby » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:07 pm

Mavrelous wrote:I have this as terrible for Dallas and fantastic for SAS who should be cut if Dallas fancied paying Gafford + 1st + 2nd for Vuc

I don't think you've watched the Spurs much, have you? Champagnie isn't filler.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#5 » by Mavrelous » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:10 pm

wemby wrote:
Mavrelous wrote:I have this as terrible for Dallas and fantastic for SAS who should be cut if Dallas fancied paying Gafford + 1st + 2nd for Vuc

I don't think you've watched the Spurs much, have you? Champagnie isn't filler.

I have not, but watched enough and saw enough on his profile stats to know he doesn't have much value either.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#6 » by wemby » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:18 pm

Mavrelous wrote:
wemby wrote:
Mavrelous wrote:I have this as terrible for Dallas and fantastic for SAS who should be cut if Dallas fancied paying Gafford + 1st + 2nd for Vuc

I don't think you've watched the Spurs much, have you? Champagnie isn't filler.

I have not, but watched enough and saw enough on his profile stats to know he doesn't have much value either.

Really? 23 year old 6'7" wing posting 12.5 points and 5 boards per game, shooting 61% from 2, 37.3% from 3 on 7.3 attempts per game (not just wide open corner 3s) and over 90% from the line, plays good defense and doesn't make many mistakes, making 3 million per year for 3 years doesn't have much value? Good to know, I'd pay a good price for 3 more Champagnies.

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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#7 » by BeiBeau » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:30 pm

This is trying to fix something that isn’t broken. Quick pass for Dallas.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#8 » by Mavrelous » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:33 pm

wemby wrote:
Mavrelous wrote:
wemby wrote:I don't think you've watched the Spurs much, have you? Champagnie isn't filler.

I have not, but watched enough and saw enough on his profile stats to know he doesn't have much value either.

Really? 23 year old 6'7" wing posting 12.5 points and 5 boards per game, shooting 61% from 2, 37.3% from 3 on 7.3 attempts per game (not just wide open corner 3s) and over 90% from the line, plays good defense and doesn't make many mistakes, making 3 million per year for 3 years doesn't have much value? Good to know, I'd pay a good price for 3 more Champagnies.



So, a tall shooter, who shoots 37%, defensively he's hard to judge since he plays with geenrational talent, but Spurs are hardly any different with him on and off the floor defensively.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#9 » by wemby » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:41 pm

Mavrelous wrote:So, a tall shooter, who shoots 37%, defensively he's hard to judge since he plays with geenrational talent, but Spurs are hardly any different with him on and off the floor defensively.

He shoots 37% on 7.3 attempts which are not the wide open corner 3s Luka generates, put him on the Mavs next to Luka and Kyrie and he's likely 40%+. He's not a lockdown defender by any means, but he's more than ok and improving. Also, on and off patterns have a lot to do with who you play with and who plays instead when you're off the floor, etc. Stats are useful but don't replace the eye test, you have to watch someone play if you're going to have a strong opinion.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#10 » by jayjaysee » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:43 pm

wemby wrote:Hmm. I don't think Mavs mess with their center rotation, it works too well for them.

As for the Spurs, the FRP is likely more like a swap in that they're likely getting a late first rounder for possibly an early second. Spurs could really use Gafford too, but honestly I don't want to move Champagnie. Some Spurs fans may disagree with me, but he's been possibly the best wing on the Spurs this season, he's 23 and has 2 more seasons beyond this one at 3 million per year. Rather than using him as bait, Spurs should just try to renegotiate and extend as soon as they can to get him long term for a much more reasonable contract. He may not be a future star but he's the kind of role player every winning team needs, including the Spurs.


I’m not sure if you can renegotiate and extend on a team option? But you probably can.

With SAS chasing cap space that summer, I think the Herb Jones/Joe/etc deal is more likely though. Trim 3-4 mil a year off what he actually deserves by paying him a year early, while maintaining the tiny cap hold throughout free agency..

I liked Gafford in SAS and liked Julian in Dallas though. Didn’t like SAS paying assets to go for a backup center, so split Julian into an asset/player..

Not sure how we are projecting seconds. I couldn’t have been more vague. And Luka is hurt likely for more than a month, think the should be protected as closer to a mid first than a late first..

For me, I think if someone trades for him this season, it’s going to be about this value. By the end of the season mid next season, maybe his improvement/effort on defense continues and he’s worth more or maybe he goes back to being the one way player he was last season and is just a decent bench spacer. Was just a coin flip on an active long wing.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#11 » by Mavrelous » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:47 pm

wemby wrote: you have to watch someone play if you're going to have a strong opinion.

I don't have strong opinion about him, you do, I didn't value him at all, Spurs and his agent valued him at 3M/yr though, he was shooting 37% from 3 last year also, only difference is 10 more MPG and more volume, you should take this valuation with them.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#12 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Dec 28, 2024 5:50 pm

I don't hate the idea of using Gafford's value to address something else as long as a competent backup center comes back--I love Dwight but he's just not that guy anymore. And Vuc is more than competent.

But feels like a lot for a guy who while cheap, isn't really an upgrade over Klay/Grimes right? Now Grimes might be a financial loss after this year so nice to get a replacement in I suppose.

Still feels like not actually improving the team. Would rather get a lessor replacement center and save some assets. Or get a clear upgrade if using Gafford/picks.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#13 » by jayjaysee » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:05 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:I don't hate the idea of using Gafford's value to address something else as long as a competent backup center comes back--I love Dwight but he's just not that guy anymore. And Vuc is more than competent.

But feels like a lot for a guy who while cheap, isn't really an upgrade over Klay/Grimes right? Now Grimes might be a financial loss after this year so nice to get a replacement in I suppose.

Still feels like not actually improving the team. Would rather get a lessor replacement center and save some assets. Or get a clear upgrade if using Gafford/picks.


Yeah, I’m hoping Grimes isn’t a financial loss for Klay. But we will have to see I guess.

I don’t know if Julian is an upgrade over Klay this year, but looking long term, he might be the best of the trio in 3 years? I think if Julian continues to develop as he did this offseason, he’ll be the next Cam Johnson and SAS will be demanding 2 firsts and a prospect for him in 12 months.. Long shot/some sarcasm but still I think he’s gonna to develop into a forward that can play 28mpg in a playoff series.

But there’s also the chance he just looks better because he plays 49.5% of his minutes with both Chris Paul and Wemby. And that probably makes things pretty easy for a young long shooter (who while active was unskilled completely on defense a year ago)…

It’s definitely not my best idea.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#14 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:16 pm

jayjaysee wrote:I don’t know if Julian is an upgrade over Klay this year, but looking long term, he might be the best of the trio in 3 years? I think if Julian continues to develop as he did this offseason, he’ll be the next Cam Johnson and SAS will be demanding 2 firsts and a prospect for him in 12 months.. Long shot/some sarcasm but still I think he’s gonna to develop into a forward that can play 28mpg in a playoff series.
.


Yeah this is definitely the bet Dallas would be making. And its definitely a feasible path(that he's the best of the 3 in a couple years). Shame Dallas couldn't get an extension done with Grimes and a double shame they paid Hardy money that could have been allocated to Grimes(he costs more than Hardy, but $6.5M a year more would be available to give him). Without knowing what Grimes costs, getting the cost controlled guy is nice. But if Grimes comes in at say Marshall money, I think Dallas figures out how to fit that in.

Still don't understand that Hardy extension. Other than it was a bet on him. But I'm convinced you can find players like Hardy for the min any time you want. Like isn't Dennis Smith Jr still looking for work? I'd take him on the min over Hardy at $6.5M But alas.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#15 » by wemby » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:23 pm

Mavrelous wrote:
wemby wrote: you have to watch someone play if you're going to have a strong opinion.

I don't have strong opinion about him, you do, I didn't value him at all, Spurs and his agent valued him at 3M/yr though, he was shooting 37% from 3 last year also, only difference is 10 more MPG and more volume, you should take this valuation with them.

Last year Spurs had horrendous guard play so not sure what your point is. Trying to establish his value by bringing up the contract he signed a year and a half ago as basically a rookie looking for a team to invest in him seems like gasping at straws. Sit this one out, maybe?
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#16 » by jayjaysee » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:23 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
jayjaysee wrote:I don’t know if Julian is an upgrade over Klay this year, but looking long term, he might be the best of the trio in 3 years? I think if Julian continues to develop as he did this offseason, he’ll be the next Cam Johnson and SAS will be demanding 2 firsts and a prospect for him in 12 months.. Long shot/some sarcasm but still I think he’s gonna to develop into a forward that can play 28mpg in a playoff series.
.


Yeah this is definitely the bet Dallas would be making. And its definitely a feasible path(that he's the best of the 3 in a couple years). Shame Dallas couldn't get an extension done with Grimes and a double shame they paid Hardy money that could have been allocated to Grimes(he costs more than Hardy, but $6.5M a year more would be available to give him). Without knowing what Grimes costs, getting the cost controlled guy is nice. But if Grimes comes in at say Marshall money, I think Dallas figures out how to fit that in.

Still don't understand that Hardy extension. Other than it was a bet on him. But I'm convinced you can find players like Hardy for the min any time you want. Like isn't Dennis Smith Jr still looking for work? I'd take him on the min over Hardy at $6.5M But alas.


Yeah, some Dallas fans really liked Hardy while I was throwing him into any and every trade idea. Guess the organization agreed with them. Maybe Luka being out will give him his chance to prove the team right.. doesn’t look like it.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#17 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:25 pm

jayjaysee wrote:Yeah, some Dallas fans really liked Hardy while I was throwing him into any and every trade idea. Guess the organization agreed with them. Maybe Luka being out will give him his chance to prove the team right.. doesn’t look like it.


Kidd can be inconsistent with his rotations so I definitely expect him to get another crack at backup minutes while Luka is out. But he's JAG. Spencer Dinwiddie looked washed upon leaving Dallas and it took him all of 7 minutes to beat out Hardy.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#18 » by Mavrelous » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:30 pm

wemby wrote:
Mavrelous wrote:
wemby wrote: you have to watch someone play if you're going to have a strong opinion.

I don't have strong opinion about him, you do, I didn't value him at all, Spurs and his agent valued him at 3M/yr though, he was shooting 37% from 3 last year also, only difference is 10 more MPG and more volume, you should take this valuation with them.

Last year Spurs had horrendous guard play so not sure what your point is. Trying to establish his value by bringing up the contract he signed a year and a half ago as basically a rookie looking for a team to invest in him seems like gasping at straws. Sit this one out, maybe?

I'm bringing up the contract since his production didn't change, he's actually worse after signing the contract than before it, and yet, when he became FA he signed for 3M/yr, if he had higher value, he would've signed for more, but you're right, I'm sitting this one out, I've had enough.
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#19 » by jayjaysee » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:44 pm

Mavrelous wrote:
wemby wrote:
Mavrelous wrote:I don't have strong opinion about him, you do, I didn't value him at all, Spurs and his agent valued him at 3M/yr though, he was shooting 37% from 3 last year also, only difference is 10 more MPG and more volume, you should take this valuation with them.

Last year Spurs had horrendous guard play so not sure what your point is. Trying to establish his value by bringing up the contract he signed a year and a half ago as basically a rookie looking for a team to invest in him seems like gasping at straws. Sit this one out, maybe?

I'm bringing up the contract since his production didn't change, he's actually worse after signing the contract than before it, and yet, when he became FA he signed for 3M/yr, if he had higher value, he would've signed for more, but you're right, I'm sitting this one out, I've had enough.


Since the OP was my bad idea..

I have to disagree with the contract talk.

He signed a deal as a 21 year old freshly waived undrafted player, not after last season 2023-2024 where he looked like a bench shooter... He played in 17 games the year, 2022-2023, before he signed this contract and could’ve thought he was on his way out of the league, to Europe, etc..

9 million dollars guaranteed for a former 2-way player that was waived 6 months prior.. It’s probably tough to bet on yourself there IMO.

Maybe you feel like he should’ve taken a chance on getting a vet min offer from someone for last season (2023-2024) in order to prove he deserves more? But I don’t blame him for setting himself up for life at 21 years old. He’ll be a free agent at 25 and can try and make big money...

But last season, he earned 3 million dollars and was a one way shooter. This year, he doesn’t look lost playing defense. That might be because he has a top 3 PG directing and an alien behind him. But does he learn and develop from that experience? Even Harrison’s worth ethic, does it rub off? I think it will and he’s going to be a good wing for a long time..

You and Chuck side with this being a bad deal for Dallas, so it likely is. But wouldn’t hold the contract part against him is all. He’s looks like a completely different player than he was in 2022-2023 and a much improved one from 2023-2024..
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Re: Dallas/SAS/Chi - really going to hate it 

Post#20 » by wemby » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:53 pm

Mavrelous wrote:I'm bringing up the contract since his production didn't change, he's actually worse after signing the contract than before it, and yet, when he became FA he signed for 3M/yr, if he had higher value, he would've signed for more, but you're right, I'm sitting this one out, I've had enough.

When he signed his contract he had just turned 22 and played mostly garbage time on a grand total of 17 NBA games, the deal he signed is pretty good and on par with the highest regarded 2nd round picks, if anything I'd say it shows the Spurs valued him as first round talent.

Also, saying he got WORSE after signing that contract is ludicrous, it isn't honest to extrapolate a single stat from 15 meaningless games (all he had played up to that point) from a tanking team and say he regressed because his percentages are slightly down on a much bigger role on a .500 team.

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