Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[shrink]

Oh yeah, I nearly forgot why I came by:

A DET poster on the Trade Board asked if we’d send back their DET pick for Jalen Duren.

The pick (like all picks) is more valuable to the original team, because it’s worth more than just the player. It also frees them up from Stepien rules if they want to re-trade this pick, or a future pick, with whatever protections they need to balance a future trade.

As a reminder, the DET 1st is top 13/11/9 protected in 25/26/27.

Finally, don’t worry about the salary match (I think Duren makes like $5). This would be part of a three-team Randle trade, like “Randle + DET 1st for $20 mil player + Duren.”

What do we think of Duren?

[Guest84]

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/minnesota-timberwolves/news/warriors-predicted-cut-ties-24-million-nba-champion-trade-timberwolves/5b79e7f087a7daa10f42bf84

The trade was Rob and Joe I for Kuminga

Funny, I was just listening to the Hoop Collective discuss Kuminga earlier today.

Apparently he has been very bitter with the way he feels he has bern treated in GSW, and people can see it in his play. He wants a max deal, and GSW doesn’t want to give it to him. They tried starting him for a section of the season, and they lost all the time. But Kuminga’s mad.

It got even worse than that. One of the hosts said GSW brought this on themselves, drafting Wiseman and Kuminga, and pointed out how different the franchise could look if they had drafted Wagner. Must be pretty sad day for Kuminga when you get lumped in with Wiseman!

While I’ve considered what the team would look like with Kuminga, I wouldn’t do it for the trade that was mentioned in the article.

I also think the development of the young guys is mostly on GS poor mismanagement of them. I think there’s def potential with Kuminga still but he’s prob in the mindset of “why would I want to help you” when it comes to GS. He hasn’t earned a max deal though.

[Guest84]

Oh yeah, I nearly forgot why I came by:

A DET poster on the Trade Board asked if we’d send back their DET pick for Jalen Duren.

The pick (like all picks) is more valuable to the original team, because it’s worth more than just the player. It also frees them up from Stepien rules if they want to re-trade this pick, or a future pick, with whatever protections they need to balance a future trade.

As a reminder, the DET 1st is top 13/11/9 protected in 25/26/27.

Finally, don’t worry about the salary match (I think Duren makes like $5). This would be part of a three-team Randle trade, like “Randle + DET 1st for $20 mil player + Duren.”

What do we think of Duren?

I’ve mentioned my interest for Duren and Ivey before. I think both would be worth taken a chance on.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Don't know where to put that.... i' m getting more and more annoyed looking at KAT playing so well for the Knicks.... trading him for Randle (and DDV) was a real mistake and i also start to have doubt about the Rudy extension. At least if we don't trade Randle, Rudy is losing 30% of his efficiency this season because of the bad matching and Rudy at this level is clearly overpaid.

[winforlose]

Worst case scenario for me is keeping Randle. He’s exactly the player he has always been, which is just a terrible fit to build around Ant. If we keep Randle beyond this year, Naz is gone and so is NAW. We can’t afford to keep them and Randle. Why on earth would Naz stay to come off the bench behind Randle? Someone will pay him to start and it should be us. We also will need to draft a center and sign another vet PG. Moving Randle this year makes the most sense.

Randle for:

Val and Brogdon?
Lonzo and Smith?
Isaac and Joseph?
Any expiring and a pick?

I think you are missing something. If Randle isn’t traded he will come off the bench. Naz will get 30-33 MPG, Rudy will get 30-33 MPG, and Randle will get most of the rest. I think Naz is the priority and he has probably been told they are starting Randle to build his trade value. If they cannot move him, they will simply promote Naz and if Randle’s ego cannot handle it they will send Randle home.

You’re just making things up to fit some narrative in your mind.

But even if you’re right, you think Naz is like “that’s cool, I’m not worried about earning the biggest contract by producing in a bigger role this year.” And have you ever worked with other humans? There is no chance those kind of conversations would not end up coming out.

An alternative narrative is that Connelly thinks he made a great move trading Kat, isn’t ready to change course, and Finch really believes he can unlock Randle to facilitate his flow offense. Connelly is also known for bidding against himself to resign players before seeing what the market will determine.

Anyway, thoughts and prayers that they trade Randle.

1. I think they probably already have a deal with Naz in place (at least in principle.) He seems to want to be here, and we want him here. We moved KAT to clear the way for him. It isn’t crazy for Naz and his agent to understand the business side of the game and give the Wolves till February to move Randle for profit so that Naz plays with a stronger group going forward. I see guys taking hair cuts all over the place (Mike, Rudy, Naz himself, ect…,) to make the team better. Don’t dismiss the power of competitiveness.

2. I am not the only who thinks so, I have heard this same theory from Dane Moore, and I believe flagrant howls (cannot guarantee the second place wasn’t a different Wolves pod, I listen to a few.)

3. I hope TC actually watches the games. If he does he knows that Ant + Randle + 4 quarter = Canis Cancer.

P.S if you come back at me on point 3 with the Rockets game I will refer you to the 4 before that one.

[BlacJacMac]

Oh yeah, I nearly forgot why I came by:

A DET poster on the Trade Board asked if we’d send back their DET pick for Jalen Duren.

The pick (like all picks) is more valuable to the original team, because it’s worth more than just the player. It also frees them up from Stepien rules if they want to re-trade this pick, or a future pick, with whatever protections they need to balance a future trade.

As a reminder, the DET 1st is top 13/11/9 protected in 25/26/27.

Finally, don’t worry about the salary match (I think Duren makes like $5). This would be part of a three-team Randle trade, like “Randle + DET 1st for $20 mil player + Duren.”

What do we think of Duren?

In a heartbeat. Duren is a fantastic rebounder with very good size and athleticism. He hasn’t put it all together on defense yet, but he’s young and would be learning behind Rudy.

[cmoss84]

Chicago and Detroit can make for a very interesting 3 team trade. Essentially, we could end up with Ball, Smith, Ivey, and Duren for Julius, Jaden, and filler.

[Loaf_of_bread]

I think you are missing something. If Randle isn’t traded he will come off the bench. Naz will get 30-33 MPG, Rudy will get 30-33 MPG, and Randle will get most of the rest. I think Naz is the priority and he has probably been told they are starting Randle to build his trade value. If they cannot move him, they will simply promote Naz and if Randle’s ego cannot handle it they will send Randle home.

You’re just making things up to fit some narrative in your mind.

But even if you’re right, you think Naz is like “that’s cool, I’m not worried about earning the biggest contract by producing in a bigger role this year.” And have you ever worked with other humans? There is no chance those kind of conversations would not end up coming out.

An alternative narrative is that Connelly thinks he made a great move trading Kat, isn’t ready to change course, and Finch really believes he can unlock Randle to facilitate his flow offense. Connelly is also known for bidding against himself to resign players before seeing what the market will determine.

Anyway, thoughts and prayers that they trade Randle.

1. I think they probably already have a deal with Naz in place (at least in principle.) He seems to want to be here, and we want him here. We moved KAT to clear the way for him. It isn’t crazy for Naz and his agent to understand the business side of the game and give the Wolves till February to move Randle for profit so that Naz plays with a stronger group going forward. I see guys taking hair cuts all over the place (Mike, Rudy, Naz himself, ect…,) to make the team better. Don’t dismiss the power of competitiveness.

2. I am not the only who thinks so, I have heard this same theory from Dane Moore, and I believe flagrant howls (cannot guarantee the second place wasn’t a different Wolves pod, I listen to a few.)

3. I hope TC actually watches the games. If he does he knows that Ant + Randle + 4 quarter = Canis Cancer.

P.S if you come back at me on point 3 with the Rockets game I will refer you to the 4 before that one.

3. You are kind of funny. There a multiple well paid executives and even more scouts with pull inside of the organization to help in making those types of calls. Of course tc has the final say, but hypothesizing if he is watching the games or not made me laugh

[shrink]

Of course tc has the final say, but hypothesizing if he is watching the games or not made me laugh

It’s probably shocking, but he might not! I don’t know if you’ve read Moneyball, or saw the movie, but GM Billy Beane refused to watch games, because he thought it interfered with his perception.

Beane had a very personal reason for this view. He’d come up as a young player who the scouts loved, because “he looked like a player.” And he failed spectacularly. When he became GM of the A’s, he inherited a number of older, groupthink scouts that continued with recommendations on guys that “looked like players.”

If you haven’t read or seen it, I won’t spoil the whole thing for you. I would bet the farm though that Connelly, who came up in the NBA as a scout, has read that book many times. I wonder sometimes if actual GMs believe Beane is right - that a GM needs a long term view that might be tainted by emotional events in short term watches? Is the true story told better by the numbers? I doubt we will ever hear a GM admit it, one way or another.

[shrink]

What do we think of Duren?

In a heartbeat. Duren is a fantastic rebounder with very good size and athleticism. He hasn’t put it all together on defense yet, but he’s young and would be learning behind Rudy.

I like Duren too, but I was surprised that many on the DET board seems very down on him; somebody even called him DeAndre Jordan 2.0!

That said, I only listen to board consensus, and don’t blindly agree.

[winforlose]

You’re just making things up to fit some narrative in your mind.

But even if you’re right, you think Naz is like “that’s cool, I’m not worried about earning the biggest contract by producing in a bigger role this year.” And have you ever worked with other humans? There is no chance those kind of conversations would not end up coming out.

An alternative narrative is that Connelly thinks he made a great move trading Kat, isn’t ready to change course, and Finch really believes he can unlock Randle to facilitate his flow offense. Connelly is also known for bidding against himself to resign players before seeing what the market will determine.

Anyway, thoughts and prayers that they trade Randle.

1. I think they probably already have a deal with Naz in place (at least in principle.) He seems to want to be here, and we want him here. We moved KAT to clear the way for him. It isn’t crazy for Naz and his agent to understand the business side of the game and give the Wolves till February to move Randle for profit so that Naz plays with a stronger group going forward. I see guys taking hair cuts all over the place (Mike, Rudy, Naz himself, ect…,) to make the team better. Don’t dismiss the power of competitiveness.

2. I am not the only who thinks so, I have heard this same theory from Dane Moore, and I believe flagrant howls (cannot guarantee the second place wasn’t a different Wolves pod, I listen to a few.)

3. I hope TC actually watches the games. If he does he knows that Ant + Randle + 4 quarter = Canis Cancer.

P.S if you come back at me on point 3 with the Rockets game I will refer you to the 4 before that one.

3. You are kind of funny. There a multiple well paid executives and even more scouts with pull inside of the organization to help in making those types of calls. Of course tc has the final say, but hypothesizing if he is watching the games or not made me laugh

Shrink hit some of it, some of it was tongue n cheek, but have they ever shown TC at a game?

[shrink]

If the Kings blow it up, I wonder if we could bring back Jordan MacLaughlin as a throw in, in a larger deal?

Who do we like on the Kings? Maybe buy low on Keegan Murray since he’s having such a bad year?

DiVincenzo for Keegan Murray and JMac?

Maybe I’m too high on DDV. I’m sure defense-starved SAC would love Jaden

Jaden for Murray, Lyles (exp), JMac and a 1st?

[shrink]

Speaking of SAC …

Read on Twitter

Bet against MIN getting Fox. Vegas doesn’t realize the CBA prevents a deal with Randle going out.

[m2002brian]

Trade coming soon?

PJ has been waived.

[LSWF]

Gobert for Fox? Could we, would we, should we?

[guest81]

Don't know where to put that.... i' m getting more and more annoyed looking at KAT playing so well for the Knicks.... trading him for Randle (and DDV) was a real mistake and i also start to have doubt about the Rudy extension. At least if we don't trade Randle, Rudy is losing 30% of his efficiency this season because of the bad matching and Rudy at this level is clearly overpaid.

Rudy on the team still means a top 5 defense. That's clearly worth the salary

[minimus]

Trade coming soon?

PJ has been waived.

Nope, deadline when his contract becomes guaranteed

[winforlose]

Don't know where to put that.... i' m getting more and more annoyed looking at KAT playing so well for the Knicks.... trading him for Randle (and DDV) was a real mistake and i also start to have doubt about the Rudy extension. At least if we don't trade Randle, Rudy is losing 30% of his efficiency this season because of the bad matching and Rudy at this level is clearly overpaid.

Rudy on the team still means a top 5 defense. That's clearly worth the salary

Rudy is still Rudy. In fact the big difference is him hitting a much higher percentage of free throws (last game was ugly, but overall he has been better.) It is the passing to Rudy that has dried up and become less reliable when it is thrown.

[BlacJacMac]

Gobert for Fox? Could we, would we, should we?

No. Rudy can’t be traded before the deadline.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Don't know where to put that.... i' m getting more and more annoyed looking at KAT playing so well for the Knicks.... trading him for Randle (and DDV) was a real mistake and i also start to have doubt about the Rudy extension. At least if we don't trade Randle, Rudy is losing 30% of his efficiency this season because of the bad matching and Rudy at this level is clearly overpaid.

Rudy on the team still means a top 5 defense. That's clearly worth the salary

Rudy is still Rudy. In fact the big difference is him hitting a much higher percentage of free throws (last game was ugly, but overall he has been better.) It is the passing to Rudy that has dried up and become less reliable when it is thrown.

Exactly the point. Why extend Rudy if you put around him players who do not play defense and not good at passing? Kind of mistake here....