Lonzo Ball vs Scary Terry

[VaDe255]

The Heat could use another PoA defender and playable rotation guy for the playoffs, as they lost their cheap option in Dru Smith.
Ball can play back up minutes or close as he fits with their main starters, if it works out they can sign him to a proove it deal next year.
Also there are some added tax savings here and flexibility next offseason.

The Bulls get some draft capital here and another guy they can potentially flip or use the expiring next year for a deal.

[jbk1234]

What draft capital?

[VaDe255]

What draft capital?

Schröder went for a similiar deal, or are we going to argue Heat 2nd round picks are somehow worth less?

[Tim Lehrbach]

The price is low, and Rozier has been terrible this year, and this gets Miami out of his contract (which may or may not be owed for next year if they keep him). But if the idea is to improve on the court, Ball is incredibly high-risk himself, and there is reason to be doubtful of the potential for reward. Miami may not find another taker for Terry, but if they could, whomever they get in return is very likely to contribute more minutes than Ball.

[jbk1234]

What draft capital?

Schröder went for a similiar deal, or are we going to argue Heat 2nd round picks are somehow worth less?

I didn't see any listed, but Schroeder went for seconds and an expiring contract. You're asking for something different. That aside, the Heat have no third guard or backup PG after this and are a Ball setback from having no second guard. I think the Bulls should do it. I'm far less sure the Heat should.

[Tim Lehrbach]

What draft capital?

Schröder went for a similiar deal, or are we going to argue Heat 2nd round picks are somehow worth less?

I didn't see any listed, but Schroeder went for seconds and an expiring contract. You're asking for something different. That aside, the Heat have no third guard or backup PG after this and are a Ball setback from having no second guard. I think the Bulls should do it. I'm far less sure the Heat should.

Exactly. At the risk of repeating myself, if the Heat can get nearly anybody else for Terry, it would probably turn out better than hitching their wagon to Ball.

[BBallFreak]

What draft capital?

Schröder went for a similiar deal, or are we going to argue Heat 2nd round picks are somehow worth less?

I didn't see any listed, but Schroeder went for seconds and an expiring contract. You're asking for something different.

Agreed. Miami is dumping salary. That's not what happened with Schroder. We owe more, here.

That aside, the Heat have no third guard or backup PG after this and are a Ball setback from having no second guard. I think the Bulls should do it. I'm far less sure the Heat should.

Our backup point guard would be our starting point guard - Tyler Herro. We also have Pelle Larsson who looks very good, Alec Burks, a solid veteran, and Josh Richardson, not to mention a couple of developmental prospects. Our depth isn't a reason not to do this trade. This is low risk high reward. The worst that happens is that Ball gets injured and he walks away for nothing. What have we lost? Actually, the worst is that he plays well, we resign him, and he gets injured again, but that's neither here nor there.

The reasons not to do this trade are all on Chicago's end because, contractually, they end up worse...

[VaDe255]

Schröder went for a similiar deal, or are we going to argue Heat 2nd round picks are somehow worth less?

I didn't see any listed, but Schroeder went for seconds and an expiring contract. You're asking for something different. That aside, the Heat have no third guard or backup PG after this and are a Ball setback from having no second guard. I think the Bulls should do it. I'm far less sure the Heat should.

Exactly. At the risk of repeating myself, if the Heat can get nearly anybody else for Terry, it would probably turn out better than hitching their wagon to Ball.

Availability is of course a concern with Ball.

Terry was given a chance to start and was averaging 32 minutes a game the first 12 games when he started.
His minutes have been significantly reduced to 26 minutes a game and when everyone is healthy they don't need more than 20 minutes.

I'd trust Ball to play around 20 minutes a game, even if Ball goes down, they'd have Duncan/Burks and their 2nd round pick Larrson in that case to cover those minutes.

[Skybox]

If he's ambulatory, Ball is twice as impactful as Terry, imo...I'd personally take the chance and the potential cap space, as a downside scenario, over Rozier's contract for another year. The srps don't move me...I'd take the Ball side of the trade for either sinking/rebuilding CHI or tightrope-walking MIA...Ball/Herro is a big, well-balanced backcourt and if Butler leads to a blow up, the cap space from Ball would be a lot more useful than Rozier, in supporting a quick turnaround.

I'd love to get Ball to ORL, to run the second unit beside Anthony Black, and deepen their nasty, long defensive guard rotation, with added playmaking, court vision, BBIQ, and shooting - even, if in limited minutes.

[VaDe255]

If he's ambulatory, Ball is twice as impactful as Terry, imo...I'd personally take the chance and the potential cap space, as a downside scenario, over Rozier's contract for another year. The srps don't move me...I'd take the Ball side of the trade for either sinking/rebuilding CHI or tightrope-walking MIA...Ball/Herro is a big, well-balanced backcourt and if Butler leads to a blow up, the cap space from Ball would be a lot more useful than Rozier, in supporting a quick turnaround.

I'd love to get Ball to ORL, to run the second unit beside Anthony Black, and deepen their nasty, long defensive guard rotation, with added playmaking, court vision, BBIQ, and shooting - even, if in limited minutes.

you're making it sound, as if teams will be lining up with a FRP to pay for Ball? What is the correct value here?

[Skybox]

If he's ambulatory, Ball is twice as impactful as Terry, imo...I'd personally take the chance and the potential cap space, as a downside scenario, over Rozier's contract for another year. The srps don't move me...I'd take the Ball side of the trade for either sinking/rebuilding CHI or tightrope-walking MIA...Ball/Herro is a big, well-balanced backcourt and if Butler leads to a blow up, the cap space from Ball would be a lot more useful than Rozier, in supporting a quick turnaround.

I'd love to get Ball to ORL, to run the second unit beside Anthony Black, and deepen their nasty, long defensive guard rotation, with added playmaking, court vision, BBIQ, and shooting - even, if in limited minutes.

you're making it sound, as if teams will be lining up with a FRP to pay for Ball? What is the correct value here?

Didn't say that...just said that Terry is an expensive negative albatross, and an expiring Ball, even with injury/minute concerns, is a high BBIQ, relatively risk-free bet.

[jbk1234]

If he's ambulatory, Ball is twice as impactful as Terry, imo...I'd personally take the chance and the potential cap space, as a downside scenario, over Rozier's contract for another year. The srps don't move me...I'd take the Ball side of the trade for either sinking/rebuilding CHI or tightrope-walking MIA...Ball/Herro is a big, well-balanced backcourt and if Butler leads to a blow up, the cap space from Ball would be a lot more useful than Rozier, in supporting a quick turnaround.

I'd love to get Ball to ORL, to run the second unit beside Anthony Black, and deepen their nasty, long defensive guard rotation, with added playmaking, court vision, BBIQ, and shooting - even, if in limited minutes.

you're making it sound, as if teams will be lining up with a FRP to pay for Ball? What is the correct value here?

Didn't say that...just said that Terry is an expensive negative albatross, and an expiring Ball, even with injury/minute concerns, is a high BBIQ, relatively risk-free bet.

Albatross is going too far. It's a two-year deal (and we're already half way through this season) at $25M per. The Bulls and Hornets combined to miss 75 3-point attempts for the second time this season last night. If nothing else, Rozier shoots league average from 3.

The biggest issue I see with this trade is that the Bulls have not yet moved LaVine, and Riley's proclamation notwithstanding, the Butler issue is unresolved. There are much bigger issues for both teams.

[MasterIchiro]

So instead of the Bulls unloading a negative contract (LaVine) they throw up their hands and load up another negative contract (Terry).

Wow.

[VaDe255]

Yes, it's a good point. I was thinking off adding that, Vuc/LaVine probably have to be dealt with first, before this could happen.

I don't see Terry as a large negative contract, worst case he is a nice expiring next year, which can be used to facilitate a deal.
Those expirings seem more valuable in this CBA than they used to.

So what, they need to add 3 2nd rounders to make it work? Seems a bit much to me, considering the injury history Ball has.

[ChettheJet]

Have you seen Lonzo play the last few games? No way the Bulls take some crummy picks and a guy not nearly as good. Lonzo at 6-7 is massively better on defense because when he switches off a PG to a SG/SF he's not giving up 7 inches like Roszier.

[JMAC3]

Yes, it's a good point. I was thinking off adding that, Vuc/LaVine probably have to be dealt with first, before this could happen.

I don't see Terry as a large negative contract, worst case he is a nice expiring next year, which can be used to facilitate a deal.
Those expirings seem more valuable in this CBA than they used to.

So what, they need to add 3 2nd rounders to make it work? Seems a bit much to me, considering the injury history Ball has.

This makes no sense for the Bulls. They could let Lonzo walk in FA and use the 20 million in cap space to eat small contracts and probably get 5+ 2nds.

Rozier isn't bringing anything of value to the Bulls who are going to be tanking post Vuc and Lavine trades.

[MasterIchiro]

Have you seen Lonzo play the last few games? No way the Bulls take some crummy picks and a guy not nearly as good. Lonzo at 6-7 is massively better on defense because when he switches off a PG to a SG/SF he's not giving up 7 inches like Roszier.

Yeah, watching Lonzo last night, he's in line for a starting PG gig next season or at worst a high end PG2 for a contender. He plays really smart and does things that don't appear in the box score.

I'd love him to join LaMelo as PG2 in the offseason if he's willing to take the MLE.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I do get how this is bad for Chicago. If Miami has no other options and wants to dump Rozier, surely they'd have to do it. I was just saying before, for another perspective, that Miami would also probably have a reliable rotation player than pure savings, which is the risk of acquiring Ball. But sure, they probably do this. Good point about their existing depth being adequate, making Ball all upside.

[VaDe255]

Yes, it's a good point. I was thinking off adding that, Vuc/LaVine probably have to be dealt with first, before this could happen.

I don't see Terry as a large negative contract, worst case he is a nice expiring next year, which can be used to facilitate a deal.
Those expirings seem more valuable in this CBA than they used to.

So what, they need to add 3 2nd rounders to make it work? Seems a bit much to me, considering the injury history Ball has.

This makes no sense for the Bulls. They could let Lonzo walk in FA and use the 20 million in cap space to eat small contracts and probably get 5+ 2nds.

Rozier isn't bringing anything of value to the Bulls who are going to be tanking post Vuc and Lavine trades.

So what is the value needed to be added here? are we talking 2 FRPs to make this deal work?

[psman2]

Have you seen Lonzo play the last few games? No way the Bulls take some crummy picks and a guy not nearly as good. Lonzo at 6-7 is massively better on defense because when he switches off a PG to a SG/SF he's not giving up 7 inches like Roszier.

Yeah, watching Lonzo last night, he's in line for a starting PG gig next season or at worst a high end PG2 for a contender. He plays really smart and does things that don't appear in the box score.

I'd love him to join LaMelo as PG2 in the offseason if he's willing to take the MLE.

I think he would be a good late career Ron Harper type player for some team with a dominate guard/wing like Ant. His next contract will likely be creative with lots of outs like Isaac has.