BKlutch wrote:Chanel Bomber wrote:BKlutch wrote:It's not surprising that KAT's net rating was so poor because his scoring was hampered by the way the team played offense. I suspect that if he were better utilized, his rating would have been better. Their starting rotation was flawed by their offensive sets and the way each player was used.
I don't know to be honest.
They were one of 4 last teams standing. They lost games 1 and 2 by very small margins. I think Dallas was just a terrible matchup for them.
You surely know this but net rating is a lineup stat so individual net ratings are heavily affected by team performance. So what I do pay attention to when looking at specific teams is extreme values within the team. I think players in the lower end of the distribution tend to have a more negative impact on team performance, while players in the higher end tend to be more positively impactful/less negatively impactful. The players in the middle have a much more ambiguous impact and this is why generally don't draw conclusions from their net rating. This is where impact metrics come in handy because they are designed to extract the noise from lineup data.
What these individual net rating values for the WCF show is that the Timberwolves were collectively outmatched. And it seems that Gobert didn't drag team performance down. KAT was always going to be a floor spacer with Gobert being the roll man or occupying the dunker spot. And whenever Gobert sat, Minnesota's defense completely fell apart. So while the offense may not have made the best use of KAT's skill set, it was the best decision for Minnesota's collective performance.
I don't think too many conclusions can be drawn from KAT's net rating in the series, except that he wasn't tremendously positive, nor excessively negative. Minnesota competed when KAT and Gobert shared the floor, and completely faltered when Gobert sat.
I think Minnesota's issues had more to do with Conley being a liability on defense and the defense falling apart with Naz Reid replacing Gobert. That's because Gobert covered for a lot of their weaknesses on the perimeter and these cracks were exposed whenever he sat. McDaniels and Edwards simply couldn't slow down Luka and Kyrie - they got torched.
Thanks for this comprehensive analysis, which seems to nail it. Strictly regarding KAT, restricting KAT to playing within their offense was best for the team, but then, they need to ask why they built an offense that wouldn't use such an outstanding player in the best way possible. Clearly, nothing could have been done during the playoffs.
What they did later was to trade KAT -- possible, they didn't appreciate all he could do. Or perhaps they did know, but they were financially hamstrung by the CBA and didn't see a path forward to building a better team around him within the window of players' prime years. This issue of constructing a team is more complex than ever right now, and few teams are doing it well. I'm very glad that some in our organization constructed a team where he could play using his best skills, and where our team does better when he does better. It makes me wonder, of course, exactly how early Leon & Co. began to seriously entertain trading for KAT.
I'd ask him, but he's not saying.
Really good break down in this thread IMO. As a Timberwolves fan, I do believe our team was at its best with the two big lineup. Gobert's defense is underappreciated by fans becasued its not always apparent, he isn't the most marvelous one on one defender (though generally he is good but like anyone, he can get cooked for sure). His overall team impact on defense is elite when he's on though, his ability to cover so much and disrupt opposing teams, particular when he has other competent defenders around him, is high. KAT learned how to be an excellent compliment in this area.
I do blame our offensive scheme and coaching staff for not better-maximizing Towns with Gobert. It was a difficult task and I think they wanted to prioritize getting that defense right last season before diving deeper int the offense. I bielvie the plan was always to have both for the long term. Keep in mind that when the Gobert trade was made, the CBA did not have the extreme second apron penalties it has today. At the time it would have been feasible to keep Towns and Gobert while still having some flexibility with the rest of the team if they walked a thin line.
After the CBA, that was pretty much out the window without the team being heavily crippled by the financial strain. From what I have heard from local reporters is that New York has been asking around about Towns for at least a couple of years. Minnesota has repeatedly said no to a deal. After assessing the landscape post CBA update and after the Mavericks thoroughly dismantled us, they came to the conclusion that the team will be better off retooling if they could get the right pieces. Donte was a huge reason why the Timberwolves eventually said yes to the trade.
I do think the front office has overly relied on Mike Conely and it's a detriment now. I also don't believe they felt we would be a better team this season solely based off of this KAT trade but I think they felt it was a necessary move to put the team in the best position to realign itself and retool in the near future. They also heavily value the idea of being able to retain Naz Reid and possibly Alexander-Walker.
I do think they initially were going to run it back anyway this season, (which is why they traded for picks and drafted a PG and SF) and were going to see if they could take on more hard run before having to make some tough moves. When the Knicks deal improved though, they pulled the trigger and figured it was best to get what they could now.
The CBA is going to cook a lot of teams in the next season or two, these penalties are no joke and very few teams built their rosters to be able to accommodate the restrictions.
When luck shuts the door skill comes in through the window.
