Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[BlacJacMac]

I think it's more likely that Conley negotiates a buyout and retires after the season than it is that he is traded.

I agree. I think if things don't turn around for him pretty soon, that's exactly what will happen.

Says who? Is this based on any actual evidence or is just the notion that Mike doesn’t like making Millions? Mike is very unlikely to be traded, but he also has no incentive to walk away from his deal next year at anything less than his full number. Plus, if Mike does leave and we win a ring Mike misses out. That is worst case for him, best case under your scenario is he gives back money (at a level he is unlikely to ever earn again,) just to not have to be in basketball shape.

If he doesn't get better than he's playing now, he'd be far from the first pro athlete to retire "early".

A basketball season is not just getting in shape. Its a huge (and long) grind physically, mentally and emotionally.

[BlacJacMac]

Speaking of the last 2 years, link me some articles that say his knee is fully healed and he can play 35-40 MPG without a problem? Unless you are gonna bet on Mike being healthy in the playoff or Dilly being ready? Randle must return a starting PG and put Mike on the bench. Anything less and this team is *****d.

Do some math for me a second.....what do you get for a PG rotation if you play Conley 25 minutes and Ball 25 minutes?

What makes you think Mike is gonna play 25 MPG every night? You have one contract that you can move with enough money to get things done. That is one bullet in the chamber. If you use it on Lonzo he is the starting PG and Mike is the backup. Can Lonzo play playoff minutes, or are you gonna put that on Mike? Can Lonzo play with Rudy if both are non shooters? We have seen the issues of lack of floor spacing have on this team, is Lonzo gonna be respected behind the line shooting under 30%?.

Let’s talk about risk. If this trade fails you lose Ant. This is true because there is no way to acquire another starting quality PG without the Randle contract. You have an over the tax team with no trade assets, you could lose NAW and Naz and have multiple major roster holes needing to be back filled with young players who may or not be up to it, and Rudy aging away all the while. You cannot afford to miss on this deal, and your only reason to make it is that Lonzo is expiring and we can walk away if he doesn’t work out. That same argument cuts the other way, if he doesn’t work or does and wants to much money or just prefers to leave, then we are doomed. I am sorry, but Lonzo is a bad fit with Jaden, a bad fit with Rudy, and a health concern to boot. I wouldn’t touch this with a 20 foot pole.

OK, how about instead of just **** on everyone else's trade ideas, you throw out something that you'd like to see (and that you think could actually happen)?

Its a lot easier to be a critical than creative.

--edit--

Oh God, its going to be Coby White, isn't it...

[winforlose]

I agree. I think if things don't turn around for him pretty soon, that's exactly what will happen.

Says who? Is this based on any actual evidence or is just the notion that Mike doesn’t like making Millions? Mike is very unlikely to be traded, but he also has no incentive to walk away from his deal next year at anything less than his full number. Plus, if Mike does leave and we win a ring Mike misses out. That is worst case for him, best case under your scenario is he gives back money (at a level he is unlikely to ever earn again,) just to not have to be in basketball shape.

If he doesn't get better than he's playing now, he'd be far from the first pro athlete to retire "early".

He is on a team with Ant Edwards and Rudy Gobert. Those two keep us relevant as long as we make the post season. Mike ending his career on a roster as a PG 2 or even PG 3 isn’t going to trash his legacy. He has no reason to retire early, nor does he want to leave Minnesota. You haven’t made the case for him to leave. Just assuming he is going to retire because it is best for the Wolves is… wishful thinking at this point.

[Klomp]

Speaking of the last 2 years, link me some articles that say his knee is fully healed and he can play 35-40 MPG without a problem? Unless you are gonna bet on Mike being healthy in the playoff or Dilly being ready? Randle must return a starting PG and put Mike on the bench. Anything less and this team is *****d.

Do some math for me a second.....what do you get for a PG rotation if you play Conley 25 minutes and Ball 25 minutes?

What makes you think Mike is gonna play 25 MPG every night? You have one contract that you can move with enough money to get things done. That is one bullet in the chamber. If you use it on Lonzo he is the starting PG and Mike is the backup. Can Lonzo play playoff minutes, or are you gonna put that on Mike? Can Lonzo play with Rudy if both are non shooters? We have seen the issues of lack of floor spacing have on this team, is Lonzo gonna be respected behind the line shooting under 30%?.

Let’s talk about risk. If this trade fails you lose Ant. This is true because there is no way to acquire another starting quality PG without the Randle contract. You have an over the tax team with no trade assets, you could lose NAW and Naz and have multiple major roster holes needing to be back filled with young players who may or not be up to it, and Rudy aging away all the while. You cannot afford to miss on this deal, and your only reason to make it is that Lonzo is expiring and we can walk away if he doesn’t work out. That same argument cuts the other way, if he doesn’t work or does and wants to much money or just prefers to leave, then we are doomed. I am sorry, but Lonzo is a bad fit with Jaden, a bad fit with Rudy, and a health concern to boot. I wouldn’t touch this with a 20 foot pole.

For the record, I've said that I am not yet 100% in on the idea of Ball here. The asset value piece you mention here is a significant part of that. There would likely have to be another asset coming, and it would require a serious conviction that Ball's health and shot could return. That being said, they've played a high IQ facilitator who had shot concerns with Jaden and Rudy before, his name was Kyle Anderson. I don't know if the staff would be scared off by the shot as much as some fans (ie. you) are.

[Ethomasp31]

I think it's more likely that Conley negotiates a buyout and retires after the season than it is that he is traded.

I agree. I think if things don't turn around for him pretty soon, that's exactly what will happen.

Says who? Is this based on any actual evidence or is just the notion that Mike doesn’t like making Millions? Mike is very unlikely to be traded, but he also has no incentive to walk away from his deal next year at anything less than his full number. Plus, if Mike does leave and we win a ring Mike misses out. That is worst case for him, best case under your scenario is he gives back money (at a level he is unlikely to ever earn again,) just to not have to be in basketball shape.

Conley is not the problem. The problem is the ball doesn't move with Randle and Ant. When the ball doesn't move Conley isn't getting as many quality shots, and what happens is when he gets the ball late in the shot clock without a good shot he has to create something with very little time. The offense has no flow. He hasn't been a ball dominant PG since he has been here. He's standing in the corner waiting for the ball to move while Ant and Randle play iso ball, turning it over and sometimes scoring. Why no mention of Naz shooting 7% worse from 3?

[winforlose]

Do some math for me a second.....what do you get for a PG rotation if you play Conley 25 minutes and Ball 25 minutes?

What makes you think Mike is gonna play 25 MPG every night? You have one contract that you can move with enough money to get things done. That is one bullet in the chamber. If you use it on Lonzo he is the starting PG and Mike is the backup. Can Lonzo play playoff minutes, or are you gonna put that on Mike? Can Lonzo play with Rudy if both are non shooters? We have seen the issues of lack of floor spacing have on this team, is Lonzo gonna be respected behind the line shooting under 30%?.

Let’s talk about risk. If this trade fails you lose Ant. This is true because there is no way to acquire another starting quality PG without the Randle contract. You have an over the tax team with no trade assets, you could lose NAW and Naz and have multiple major roster holes needing to be back filled with young players who may or not be up to it, and Rudy aging away all the while. You cannot afford to miss on this deal, and your only reason to make it is that Lonzo is expiring and we can walk away if he doesn’t work out. That same argument cuts the other way, if he doesn’t work or does and wants to much money or just prefers to leave, then we are doomed. I am sorry, but Lonzo is a bad fit with Jaden, a bad fit with Rudy, and a health concern to boot. I wouldn’t touch this with a 20 foot pole.

OK, how about instead of just **** on everyone else's trade ideas, you throw out something that you'd like to see (and that you think could actually happen)?

Its a lot easier to be a critical than creative.

--edit--

Oh God, its going to be Coby White, isn't it...

I like Murray, White, Simons has potential but it could be messy, Podz is a target but a risk, Jose Alverado is a risk but intriguing, Scottie Pippen Jr is someone we haven’t considered. There are more, my point is we need to consider fit and need not just one or the other. Lonzo is unproven, and a bad fit.

[BlacJacMac]

Says who? Is this based on any actual evidence or is just the notion that Mike doesn’t like making Millions? Mike is very unlikely to be traded, but he also has no incentive to walk away from his deal next year at anything less than his full number. Plus, if Mike does leave and we win a ring Mike misses out. That is worst case for him, best case under your scenario is he gives back money (at a level he is unlikely to ever earn again,) just to not have to be in basketball shape.

If he doesn't get better than he's playing now, he'd be far from the first pro athlete to retire "early".

He is on a team with Ant Edwards and Rudy Gobert. Those two keep us relevant as long as we make the post season. Mike ending his career on a roster as a PG 2 or even PG 3 isn’t going to trash his legacy. He has no reason to retire early, nor does he want to leave Minnesota. You haven’t made the case for him to leave. Just assuming he is going to retire because it is best for the Wolves is… wishful thinking at this point.

I see the problem now. You've perverted the original argument.

I think it's more likely that Conley negotiates a buyout and retires after the season than it is that he is traded.

I stand by that. I doubt the Conleys want to uproot their family so he can play 1 more year.

[Klomp]

Lonzo is unproven, and a bad fit.

Unproven? Please explain.

[BlacJacMac]

What makes you think Mike is gonna play 25 MPG every night? You have one contract that you can move with enough money to get things done. That is one bullet in the chamber. If you use it on Lonzo he is the starting PG and Mike is the backup. Can Lonzo play playoff minutes, or are you gonna put that on Mike? Can Lonzo play with Rudy if both are non shooters? We have seen the issues of lack of floor spacing have on this team, is Lonzo gonna be respected behind the line shooting under 30%?.

Let’s talk about risk. If this trade fails you lose Ant. This is true because there is no way to acquire another starting quality PG without the Randle contract. You have an over the tax team with no trade assets, you could lose NAW and Naz and have multiple major roster holes needing to be back filled with young players who may or not be up to it, and Rudy aging away all the while. You cannot afford to miss on this deal, and your only reason to make it is that Lonzo is expiring and we can walk away if he doesn’t work out. That same argument cuts the other way, if he doesn’t work or does and wants to much money or just prefers to leave, then we are doomed. I am sorry, but Lonzo is a bad fit with Jaden, a bad fit with Rudy, and a health concern to boot. I wouldn’t touch this with a 20 foot pole.

OK, how about instead of just **** on everyone else's trade ideas, you throw out something that you'd like to see (and that you think could actually happen)?

Its a lot easier to be a critical than creative.

--edit--

Oh God, its going to be Coby White, isn't it...

I like Murray, White, Simons has potential but it could be messy, Podz is a target but a risk, Jose Alverado is a risk but intriguing, Scottie Pippen Jr is someone we haven’t considered. There are more, my point is we need to consider fit and need not just one or the other. Lonzo is unproven, and a bad fit.

His health is unproven, his fit is sublime.

[winforlose]

I agree. I think if things don't turn around for him pretty soon, that's exactly what will happen.

Says who? Is this based on any actual evidence or is just the notion that Mike doesn’t like making Millions? Mike is very unlikely to be traded, but he also has no incentive to walk away from his deal next year at anything less than his full number. Plus, if Mike does leave and we win a ring Mike misses out. That is worst case for him, best case under your scenario is he gives back money (at a level he is unlikely to ever earn again,) just to not have to be in basketball shape.

Conley is not the problem. The problem is the ball doesn't move with Randle and Ant. When the ball doesn't move Conley isn't getting as many quality shots, and what happens is when he gets the ball late in the shot clock without a good shot he has to create something with very little time. The offense has no flow. He hasn't been a ball dominant PG since he has been here. He's standing in the corner waiting for the ball to move while Ant and Randle play iso ball, turning it over and sometimes scoring. Why no mention of Naz shooting 7% worse from 3?

There is truth in this. Yet, Mike is shooting 32.2% from two this year. That is down from 48.1% last year and 51.5% the year before. His wrist is clearly bothering him. Mike is also being hunted on defense. This is eye test and I would sincerely ask anyone to help with the numbers to prove or disprove this, but he looks slower on defense. You are correct that his role has changed and he is in the corner instead of on ball running the offense. Might Mike bounce back with Randle traded and Naz starting, maybe? But if it doesn’t the season is lost. It is a risk tolerance gamble.

Edit to add: Naz will play better with consistent minutes at PF. He has throughout his career always been best when getting 30 minutes and starting. When we move on from Randle (February or draft night,) this team will get better, and Naz will get better. The issue is planning for the future knowing you don’t have a lot of players you want to move on from.

[winforlose]

OK, how about instead of just **** on everyone else's trade ideas, you throw out something that you'd like to see (and that you think could actually happen)?

Its a lot easier to be a critical than creative.

--edit--

Oh God, its going to be Coby White, isn't it...

I like Murray, White, Simons has potential but it could be messy, Podz is a target but a risk, Jose Alverado is a risk but intriguing, Scottie Pippen Jr is someone we haven’t considered. There are more, my point is we need to consider fit and need not just one or the other. Lonzo is unproven, and a bad fit.

His health is unproven, his fit is sublime.

You think he fits in a lineup with Jaden and Rudy?

[BlacJacMac]

I like Murray, White, Simons has potential but it could be messy, Podz is a target but a risk, Jose Alverado is a risk but intriguing, Scottie Pippen Jr is someone we haven’t considered. There are more, my point is we need to consider fit and need not just one or the other. Lonzo is unproven, and a bad fit.

His health is unproven, his fit is sublime.

You think he fits in a lineup with Jaden and Rudy?

I do indeed. Ball would give us a guy who can find both of those guys moving to the basket and deliver accurate, on-time passes. He would allow us to play with pace - which would be beneficial to most of our roster. And would hopefully/finally force Ant into doing the same.

And unless his knee injury broke his jumper permanently, I don't expect this 15 game sample to be his new normal.

His previous 3 years:
2019-20: .375 on 6.3 3PA/Game
2020-21: .378 on 8.3 3PA/Game
2021-22: .423 on 7.4 3PA/Game

This is not a Ben Simmons that never could shoot.

[winforlose]

His health is unproven, his fit is sublime.

You think he fits in a lineup with Jaden and Rudy?

I do indeed. Ball would give us a guy who can find both of those guys moving to the basket and deliver accurate, on-time passes. He would allow us to play with pace - which would be beneficial to most of our roster. And would hopefully/finally force Ant into doing the same.

And unless his knee injury broke his jumper permanently, I don't expect this 15 game sample to be his new normal.

His previous 3 years:
2019-20: .375 on 6.3 3PA/Game
2020-21: .378 on 8.3 3PA/Game
2021-22: .423 on 7.4 3PA/Game

This is not a Ben Simmons that never could shoot.

My counter
2019-2020 63 games played, 32 MPG, 40.3% from the floor
2020-2021 55 games played (out of 72) 31.8 MPG, 41.4%
2021-2022 35 games played, 34.6 MPG, 42.3%.

His health has never been reliable, and his shot is not exactly great when inside the arc. You play him with Rudy and you have spacing nightmares. Play him with Rudy and slumping Jaden you have a disaster which ends our season. He hasn’t proven his shot is coming back. You want us to take him, he should sign and trade on a proven it minimum next year assuming we cannot find someone else. You don’t bet the entire franchise on a guy who has played 35 games the past 3 seasons and 15 games this season with terrible offense in almost all of them. We had Ricky Rubio and he was a catastrophe, and Ball is not Ricky level floor general.

[BlacJacMac]

You think he fits in a lineup with Jaden and Rudy?

I do indeed. Ball would give us a guy who can find both of those guys moving to the basket and deliver accurate, on-time passes. He would allow us to play with pace - which would be beneficial to most of our roster. And would hopefully/finally force Ant into doing the same.

And unless his knee injury broke his jumper permanently, I don't expect this 15 game sample to be his new normal.

His previous 3 years:
2019-20: .375 on 6.3 3PA/Game
2020-21: .378 on 8.3 3PA/Game
2021-22: .423 on 7.4 3PA/Game

This is not a Ben Simmons that never could shoot.

My counter
2019-2020 63 games played, 32 MPG, 40.3% from the floor
2020-2021 55 games played (out of 72) 31.8 MPG, 41.4%
2021-2022 35 games played, 34.6 MPG, 42.3%.

His health has never been reliable, and his shot is not exactly great when inside the arc. You play him with Rudy and you have spacing nightmares. Play him with Rudy and slumping Jaden you have a disaster which ends our season. He hasn’t proven his shot is coming back. You want us to take him, he should sign and trade on a proven it minimum next year assuming we cannot find someone else. You don’t bet the entire franchise on a guy who has played 35 games the past 3 seasons and 15 games this season with terrible offense in almost all of them. We had Ricky Rubio and he was a catastrophe, and Ball is not Ricky level floor general.

I don't think that word means what you think it means...

We had the #9 offense starting Rubio, Brewer and Pekovic. You're not going to find 3 worse shooters in a starting 5. And those teams did not have an Ant.

Spacing can be created by more than just 3pt shooting. And maybe guys like McDaniels and Donte would shoot a whole lot better if they had a guy who knew how and when to get them the ball.

[winforlose]

I do indeed. Ball would give us a guy who can find both of those guys moving to the basket and deliver accurate, on-time passes. He would allow us to play with pace - which would be beneficial to most of our roster. And would hopefully/finally force Ant into doing the same.

And unless his knee injury broke his jumper permanently, I don't expect this 15 game sample to be his new normal.

His previous 3 years:
2019-20: .375 on 6.3 3PA/Game
2020-21: .378 on 8.3 3PA/Game
2021-22: .423 on 7.4 3PA/Game

This is not a Ben Simmons that never could shoot.

My counter
2019-2020 63 games played, 32 MPG, 40.3% from the floor
2020-2021 55 games played (out of 72) 31.8 MPG, 41.4%
2021-2022 35 games played, 34.6 MPG, 42.3%.

His health has never been reliable, and his shot is not exactly great when inside the arc. You play him with Rudy and you have spacing nightmares. Play him with Rudy and slumping Jaden you have a disaster which ends our season. He hasn’t proven his shot is coming back. You want us to take him, he should sign and trade on a proven it minimum next year assuming we cannot find someone else. You don’t bet the entire franchise on a guy who has played 35 games the past 3 seasons and 15 games this season with terrible offense in almost all of them. We had Ricky Rubio and he was a catastrophe, and Ball is not Ricky level floor general.

I don't think that word means what you think it means...

We had the #9 offense starting Rubio, Brewer and Pekovic. You're not going to find 3 worse shooters in a starting 5. And those teams did not have an Ant.

Spacing can be created by more than just 3pt shooting. And maybe guys like McDaniels and Donte would shoot a whole lot better if they had a guy who knew how and when to get them the ball.

Pek was a beast. I don’t think we have ever had anyone like him since. You don’t need to be a shooter when you are a bull. Besides that, the game was different. We hadn’t gotten to the modern style of 3 point rain. Either way, guys would cheat off of Rubio and double everyone else. Also remind me which years with Ricky we made the playoffs?

[BlacJacMac]

My counter
2019-2020 63 games played, 32 MPG, 40.3% from the floor
2020-2021 55 games played (out of 72) 31.8 MPG, 41.4%
2021-2022 35 games played, 34.6 MPG, 42.3%.

His health has never been reliable, and his shot is not exactly great when inside the arc. You play him with Rudy and you have spacing nightmares. Play him with Rudy and slumping Jaden you have a disaster which ends our season. He hasn’t proven his shot is coming back. You want us to take him, he should sign and trade on a proven it minimum next year assuming we cannot find someone else. You don’t bet the entire franchise on a guy who has played 35 games the past 3 seasons and 15 games this season with terrible offense in almost all of them. We had Ricky Rubio and he was a catastrophe, and Ball is not Ricky level floor general.

I don't think that word means what you think it means...

We had the #9 offense starting Rubio, Brewer and Pekovic. You're not going to find 3 worse shooters in a starting 5. And those teams did not have an Ant.

Spacing can be created by more than just 3pt shooting. And maybe guys like McDaniels and Donte would shoot a whole lot better if they had a guy who knew how and when to get them the ball.

Pek was a beast. I don’t think we have ever had anyone like him since. You don’t need to be a shooter when you are a bull. Besides that, the game was different. We hadn’t gotten to the modern style of 3 point rain. Either way, guys would cheat off of Rubio and double everyone else. Also remind me which years with Ricky we made the playoffs?

I loved Pek, but if you think he created spacing in the paint you were watching someone else.

Rubio made the Playoffs 2 straight years after we traded him. We failed him, he didn't fail us.

If you're going to judge players by how many times they made the Playoffs as Timberwolves, its going to be a very short discussion...

[winforlose]

I don't think that word means what you think it means...

We had the #9 offense starting Rubio, Brewer and Pekovic. You're not going to find 3 worse shooters in a starting 5. And those teams did not have an Ant.

Spacing can be created by more than just 3pt shooting. And maybe guys like McDaniels and Donte would shoot a whole lot better if they had a guy who knew how and when to get them the ball.

Pek was a beast. I don’t think we have ever had anyone like him since. You don’t need to be a shooter when you are a bull. Besides that, the game was different. We hadn’t gotten to the modern style of 3 point rain. Either way, guys would cheat off of Rubio and double everyone else. Also remind me which years with Ricky we made the playoffs?

I loved Pek, but if you think he created spacing in the paint you were watching someone else.

Rubio made the Playoffs 2 straight years after we traded him. We failed him, he didn't fail us.

If you're going to judge players by how many times they made the Playoffs as Timberwolves, its going to be a very short discussion...

No one could guard Pek one on one in the post. He was the strongest Wolf. His foot issues shortened what would have been a stellar career.

So you’re saying Rubio is so good all it took was a Donovan Mitchell, prime Joe Ingles, and DOP Rudy Gobert to get to the playoffs. Also, we made the playoffs without him the very first year, (with a healthy Jeff Teague.)

Here is a link to Ricky’s BB ref page, please help me out and clarify, how many years as a Wolf was Ricky able to shoot 40% or better? https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rubiori01.html

Also please note that Jaden at 43.2% is considered offensively challenged.

[BlacJacMac]

Pek was a beast. I don’t think we have ever had anyone like him since. You don’t need to be a shooter when you are a bull. Besides that, the game was different. We hadn’t gotten to the modern style of 3 point rain. Either way, guys would cheat off of Rubio and double everyone else. Also remind me which years with Ricky we made the playoffs?

I loved Pek, but if you think he created spacing in the paint you were watching someone else.

Rubio made the Playoffs 2 straight years after we traded him. We failed him, he didn't fail us.

If you're going to judge players by how many times they made the Playoffs as Timberwolves, its going to be a very short discussion...

No one could guard Pek one on one in the post. He was the strongest Wolf. His foot issues shortened what would have been a stellar career.

So you’re saying Rubio is so good all it took was a Donovan Mitchell, prime Joe Ingles, and DOP Rudy Gobert to get to the playoffs. Also, we made the playoffs without him the very first year, (with a healthy Jeff Teague.)

Here is a link to Ricky’s BB ref page, please help me out and clarify, how many years as a Wolf was Ricky able to shoot 40% or better? https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rubiori01.html

Also please note that Jaden at 43.2% is considered offensively challenged.

No one has ever said Rubio was a good shooter. But the NBA isn't a video game. There are more ways to drive winning than shooting.

Rubio was a +10 Net Rating player with us most years of his career.

Do you not understand how bad of a franchise the Wolves have been for most of their existence? We were only able to get KG out of the 1st round 1 time in 12 years. We didn't even make the Playoffs his final 3 years when he was a healthy 28, 29 and 30 years old.

[cmoss84]

I was actually thinking more of a 3 team trade with Chi and Detroit now that Ivey is done. Mike might be needed there?
Ball (23) RD (15) NAW (10)
ANT (28) NAW (15) Ball (5)

[BlacJacMac]

I was actually thinking more of a 3 team trade with Chi and Detroit now that Ivey is done. Mike might be needed there?
Ball (23) RD (15) NAW (10)
ANT (28) NAW (15) Ball (5)

Mike isn't going to agree to go to Detroit.

(Although I'm not sure how he has a No-Trade Clause, as he doesn't actually qualify for one. I guess maybe its a "guarantee" from TC not to trade him? If that's the case, it's likely not enforceable, but would be an incredibly bad look to renege on).