How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be?

[AFM]

I'll tell you what I'm concerned about -- where the hell is nate?

Though he & I have disagreed about many many subjects, nate33 is obviously one of the smartest, most thoughtful, & best informed guys contributing to our discussions here. About that, there is no question, & if we were to lose him, I'd be pretty upset.

I know nate has been unhappy with our recent moves -- with the whole off season & especially trading Deni. Let's hope that doesn't mean he's losing interest or, worse yet, giving up.
C'mon nate!! You made it through the Ernie years -- don't abandon us now!

(Of course, it is the holiday season -- maybe nate's on vacation? Spending time with his family?)

I've been real busy with my business. It means less free time to bitch about the Wizards, but I'm making a lot more money, so I can't complain.

Also, I haven't really been watching many games. It's too depressing. I don't mind watching a bad 25-win team that is turning the corner and on the upswing, but it's real tough to watch a hopeless 12-win team lose by double digits every night. Particularly when there are no potential stars on the roster and only one guy whom I'm confident will pan out to be a starter on a winning team in the future (Bilal). I haven't give up on Sarr and Carrington or anything, but it's also very much possible that they are no better than rotation players.

You should watch more games then, Sarr has been looking pretty good. If he doesn't turn out to be even a starter that would be very surprising

[payitforward]

I've been real busy with my business. It means less free time to bitch about the Wizards, but I'm making a lot more money, so I can't complain....

Glad to hear it. Business success is rewarding on a lot of levels -- above all b/c it flows through to one's relationships to spouse, kids, & the larger family. There's so much more you can do to enhance their lives. & your own of course -- the latter, above all, b/c of the sense of accomplishment that comes with success. That's a motivating force! Good for you!

...Also, I haven't really been watching many games. It's too depressing. I don't mind watching a bad 25-win team that is turning the corner and on the upswing, but it's real tough to watch a hopeless 12-win team lose by double digits every night. Particularly when there are no potential stars on the roster and only one guy whom I'm confident will pan out to be a starter on a winning team in the future (Bilal). I haven't give up on Sarr and Carrington or anything, but it's also very much possible that they are no better than rotation players.

It's not hard to understand this. Though one could make the opposite case as well: it was hard to watch a team that demonstrated, year after year, its inability ever to turn a corner & become a real contender.

Of course neither case can be called a lot of fun!

You left out Kyshaun George out of your list, yet I think you were kind of high on him a few weeks ago, no? I think he's pretty clearly a potential "rotation player" at the least.

As well, making 5 picks in two drafts & getting a potential starter on a winning team plus 3 guys who are rotation level or potentially significantly better... I would have thought that was pretty good work!

Still, I'm glad you're still planning to "bitch about the Wizards!" Those who bitch now will earn their right to gloat later!

[payitforward]

One other point: we extracted about as little value as possible from the 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021 & 2022 drafts. Our '20 draft was better than those, but it yielded exactly 1 player (Deni).

No team did anywhere near as badly as the Washington Wizards in those 8 consecutive drafts. In fact, a person would have had to TRY to fail in order to do any worse.

Nor did any trade we made in those same years leave us with any value whatever on the day Winger/Dawkins took over. Yes, I'm including the trade for KP, since he forced his exit on us in a way that yielded no value in return. Yes, I'm including the trade of Wall for Russ & the subsequent trade of Russ.

When you trace each thread of our drafts & trades in that period, from the 2015 draft through Sheppard's firing 18 months ago, what did the entire sum of that activity yield? The answer is, essentially, nothing -- Corey Kispert, Deni, & Gafford. Plus the R2 picks we got for Rui.

That's 8 years of work. How surprised can we be that we'll win 10-12 games this year?

[9 and 20]

Some truly nasty work by Grundle and his elf. If I were any good at chatGPT I would paste a Terd/Grinch picture mashup. But I'm not (I'm old), so enjoy the mental image.

[nate33]

You left out Kyshaun George out of your list, yet I think you were kind of high on him a few weeks ago, no? I think he's pretty clearly a potential "rotation player" at the least.

I may have jumped the gun in my praise for George.

He hit a bunch of 3's in Summer League which predisposed me into believing he was a good shooter. He then went on to show better-than-expected defensive chops relative to his lackluster athletic measurables. With good shooting, good size, adequate defense, and good basketball IQ for a wing, I figured he was destined to be a quality rotation player.

The problem is, he may not actually be such a good shooter after all. He is now shooting just 25.5% from 3-point range and just 36% from long 2 range. And his 73% FT% isn't suggesting that his poor shooting is a fluke. His sample size on 3-pointers is up to 110 now.

George isn't a shifty player. He is not going to create shots off the dribble in isolation. And while he is defensively competent, he lacks the footspeed to be a true defensive stopper like Bilal. He's not so good on defense that it's worth taking the hit of his bad offense for him to be in a rotation. It is absolutely crucial for him to become a good shooter. I am no longer sure that's going to happen, so IMO his floor has dropped from "rotation player" to "journeyman". The ceiling is still pretty good if his shot comes around.

[payitforward]

Makes perfect sense. His shooting has to be the leading quality for him to become a solid NBA player. Now, I think we can assume that whatever research the FO did on him gave them reason to have confidence in that piece of his profile. But, obviously, we'll have to see. & haven't yet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You left out Kyshaun George out of your list, yet I think you were kind of high on him a few weeks ago, no? I think he's pretty clearly a potential "rotation player" at the least.

I may have jumped the gun in my praise for George.

He hit a bunch of 3's in Summer League which predisposed me into believing he was a good shooter. He then went on to show better-than-expected defensive chops relative to his lackluster athletic measurables. With good shooting, good size, adequate defense, and good basketball IQ for a wing, I figured he was destined to be a quality rotation player.

The problem is, he may not actually be such a good shooter after all. He is now shooting just 25.5% from 3-point range and just 36% from long 2 range. And his 73% FT% isn't suggesting that his poor shooting is a fluke. His sample size on 3-pointers is up to 110 now.

George isn't a shifty player. He is not going to create shots off the dribble in isolation. And while he is defensively competent, he lacks the footspeed to be a true defensive stopper like Bilal. He's not so good on defense that it's worth taking the hit of his bad offense for him to be in a rotation. It is absolutely crucial for him to become a good shooter. I am no longer sure that's going to happen, so IMO his floor has dropped from "rotation player" to "journeyman". The ceiling is still pretty good if his shot comes around.

I wouldn't have traded up to draft George.

The Wizards could have drafted Baylor Scheireman at 26. Boston selected him at 30.

Instead of drafting EVER player by length at position and potential (scouts mistakenly equate with age); I prefer to evaluate by performance over time. I knew that Paul Millsap and Kenneth Faried would be successful in the NBA based on their sustained collegiate numbers. Same with Carlos Boozer. Same with Cameron Thomas.

As to potential, drafting a 22-year-old or even a 24-year-old didn't prevent David Robinson from having an HOF career.

In this draft, I like Eric Dixon and Kam Jones because they destroyed Maryland. Johni Broome is killing it at Auburn.

Cooper Flagg is the home run superstar, but I might rather have Derik Queen plus another pick.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Makes perfect sense. His shooting has to be the leading quality for him to become a solid NBA player. Now, I think we can assume that whatever research the FO did on him gave them reason to have confidence in that piece of his profile. But, obviously, we'll have to see. & haven't yet.

You left out Kyshaun George out of your list, yet I think you were kind of high on him a few weeks ago, no? I think he's pretty clearly a potential "rotation player" at the least.

I may have jumped the gun in my praise for George.

He hit a bunch of 3's in Summer League which predisposed me into believing he was a good shooter. He then went on to show better-than-expected defensive chops relative to his lackluster athletic measurables. With good shooting, good size, adequate defense, and good basketball IQ for a wing, I figured he was destined to be a quality rotation player.

The problem is, he may not actually be such a good shooter after all. He is now shooting just 25.5% from 3-point range and just 36% from long 2 range. And his 73% FT% isn't suggesting that his poor shooting is a fluke. His sample size on 3-pointers is up to 110 now.

George isn't a shifty player. He is not going to create shots off the dribble in isolation. And while he is defensively competent, he lacks the footspeed to be a true defensive stopper like Bilal. He's not so good on defense that it's worth taking the hit of his bad offense for him to be in a rotation. It is absolutely crucial for him to become a good shooter. I am no longer sure that's going to happen, so IMO his floor has dropped from "rotation player" to "journeyman". The ceiling is still pretty good if his shot comes around.

As far as George goes, he's been injured, and there's only an extremely small sample size of games he has played in to evaluate

I would look at his game score extremes and splits.

It's too early to judge IMO.

[payitforward]

Bernie...

Happy new year to all of you. I don't know exactly where to put this, but I wanted to chime in at least once this year. I am from Germany and on the Wiz bandwagon since the haydays of Gilbert Arenas. I started to follow this whole thing in my late 20s and now … you can do the math … it's a long time.

This forum is a major source of information for me and I pretty much enjoy all of your discussions here. It is sort of amazing because, despite the necessary tunnel vision that comes with being a fan of a sports team, your conversations are mature, insightful and provide different perspectives and viewing angles to me. In the Grunfeld and especially in the Sheppard era the negativity and the cynicism were sometimes hard to bear and to read. This has been changing more and more and brings me to my point:

Watching the Bulls game from last night and noticing WUJ on the bulls bench … seeing Vucevic and LaVine chucking threes … seeing Coby White at all … I can't remember being this confident about the direction of the Washington Wizards ever. Just take a look at the Bulls forum here at realgm … it's hopeless compared to the Wizards. Sure there are examples of franchises being run way better, if we look at this year's OKC, but just 2 years ago the Wizards were in a worse position than the Bulls are now. The front office's execution may be debatable (Hated the Deni trade the time it happened and still don't like it.) and I am generally not a fan of the trades they made, but as long as they follow and execute a sound strategy and there is progression in the right direction, I am fine with it. There were way worse times to be a Washington Wizards fan than now and for this I am kinda thankful.

[payitforward]

This is the way I view it as well, though I'm fine w/ the deni trade -- & the other trades as well.

[doclinkin]

Johni Broome is killing it at Auburn.

Cooper Flagg is the home run superstar, but I might rather have Derik Queen plus another pick.

I don’t even think Cooper Flagg is a superstar. I just think he’s a complete player who is highly competitive. To me he scans as luxury Kyle Kuzma. Or a more aggressive and skilled Deni. That’s a damn good player, and a leader on any team, but he’s not a dominant matchup vs. anybody he faces. He’s just a box score plus/minus winner.

That’s fine as far as I’m concerned. We can get our matchup winning offensive player in the next draft.

That said I’m all on board for getting extra pics to snatch Johnni Broome as an instant veteran. I like Queen too, I just wonder if he’ll be as able to play bully ball against taller players and better athletes Unless of course, he hits the conditioning and adds even more strength plus speed to his footwork. I think we’d get Broome at a discount since he’s an older player. Maybe even with a high second round pick

[Bernie]

It won't be easy to secure a top 3 pick anyway ...

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

The wiz with the easiest remaining schedule in the league.

[AFM]

All I'm gonna say is I'm hella happy we didn't draft Reed Sheppard

[doclinkin]

It won't be easy to secure a top 3 pick anyway ...

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

The wiz with the easiest remaining schedule in the league.

I don't mind a few mini win streaks here and there to give the young pups some confidence. The worst team never wins the lotto anyway. Maybe we slip out of the top 3 but someone trades up for our pick. Brooklyn has 4 first round picks. OKC and the Jazz each have 3. The Spurs have 2 and they were willing to trade a top 10 pick last year.

If we don't walk away with Flagg or Harper or I wouldn't mind getting JT Toppin + Johnni Broome as a consolation prize. And we have three 2nd round picks this year. I doubt we draft them, I'd bet they are used to trade up or into the 1st round, if not on draft day then packaged with outgoing players as deal sweetener. Sending out a vet and a 2nd rounder to recoup 1RPs in this or future years.

[dobrojim]

All I'm gonna say is I'm hella happy we didn't draft Reed Sheppard

I was okay with the Sarr pick. Now I'm more fully on board although it's still early days.

BTW, RS is currently shooting 28% from 3. Sarr, after a lacklustre start is shooting 32%.

In a do-over, I'd take the footer.

[AFM]

All I'm gonna say is I'm hella happy we didn't draft Reed Sheppard

I was okay with the Sarr pick. Now I'm more fully on board although it's still early days.

BTW, RS is currently shooting 28% from 3. Sarr, after a lacklustre start is shooting 32%.

In a do-over, I'd take the footer.

I haven't watched their games much but I would love to know what is going on w Sheppard. He is literally putting up Johnny Davis numbers.

[tontoz]

All I'm gonna say is I'm hella happy we didn't draft Reed Sheppard

I was okay with the Sarr pick. Now I'm more fully on board although it's still early days.

BTW, RS is currently shooting 28% from 3. Sarr, after a lacklustre start is shooting 32%.

In a do-over, I'd take the footer.

I haven't watched their games much but I would love to know what is going on w Sheppard. He is literally putting up Johnny Davis numbers.

Reed only plays 12 minutes per game. They have a strong team and are trying to win now so it is tough for him to find time. They have a lot of good young players from previous drafts. I would guess he will get more time after they are done with FVV.

His defensive numbers are actually good he just can't make a shot lol.

[Benjammin]

Becoming concerned about the tank. Resigned to the vets not bringing much if they're traded. Very encouraged by the young guys so far.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[dobrojim]

Johni Broome is killing it at Auburn.

Cooper Flagg is the home run superstar, but I might rather have Derik Queen plus another pick.

I don’t even think Cooper Flagg is a superstar. I just think he’s a complete player who is highly competitive. To me he scans as luxury Kyle Kuzma. Or a more aggressive and skilled Deni. That’s a damn good player, and a leader on any team, but he’s not a dominant matchup vs. anybody he faces. He’s just a box score plus/minus winner.

That’s fine as far as I’m concerned. We can get our matchup winning offensive player in the next draft.

That said I’m all on board for getting extra pics to snatch Johnni Broome as an instant veteran. I like Queen too, I just wonder if he’ll be as able to play bully ball against taller players and better athletes Unless of course, he hits the conditioning and adds even more strength plus speed to his footwork. I think we’d get Broome at a discount since he’s an older player. Maybe even with a high second round pick

I wonder if in 3-5 years, people will still have the opinion(s) they have today about the relative strength/weakness
of the 2024 and 2025 drafts. Will either Flagg or Harper be the best player from the 2025 draft?

I remember when Wiggins and Jabari Parker came out. While Wiggins has been really good from my eyeball test,
Parker's not in the league. Wiggins has been quite good but he was maybe a little overhyped. Don't get me wrong,
I'd take him on my team in a heartbeat but the predictions were sky high for him. I don't know that Wiggins would
ever be a #1 option on a champ team unless he was 1a with a very good 1b and 1c behind him.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Johni Broome is killing it at Auburn.

Cooper Flagg is the home run superstar, but I might rather have Derik Queen plus another pick.

I don’t even think Cooper Flagg is a superstar. I just think he’s a complete player who is highly competitive. To me he scans as luxury Kyle Kuzma. Or a more aggressive and skilled Deni. That’s a damn good player, and a leader on any team, but he’s not a dominant matchup vs. anybody he faces. He’s just a box score plus/minus winner.

That’s fine as far as I’m concerned. We can get our matchup winning offensive player in the next draft.

That said I’m all on board for getting extra pics to snatch Johnni Broome as an instant veteran. I like Queen too, I just wonder if he’ll be as able to play bully ball against taller players and better athletes Unless of course, he hits the conditioning and adds even more strength plus speed to his footwork. I think we’d get Broome at a discount since he’s an older player. Maybe even with a high second round pick

Queen is a guy who I only pick with Sarr in mind. In tandem their passing and cutting will be lethal. Queen doesn't score by bullying as much as he does by using advanced footwork.

He plays tonight at Washington.

EDITED: Queen played like pure garbage in Maryland's loss.