Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 8

[YogurtProducer]

As for the whole narrative that he didn't improve, people need to look at what he's doing on his 2s

Essentially he got 24% better at 10-16ft and 17% worse from 16ft-3p line? How much of that is improvement and how much of that is just variance both ways?

It looks to me that 10ft to the 3pt line collectively he shot 37% last year and 44% this year (on 139 attempts last year, and 75 this year). Screams small sample size to me and IDK if we can really say he has made significant improvement here, especially since he shots 39% here as a rookie and "regressed" as a 2nd and 3rd year player in these areas as well.

[ATLTimekeeper]

As for the whole narrative that he didn't improve, people need to look at what he's doing on his 2s

Essentially he got 24% better at 10-16ft and 17% worse from 16ft-3p line? How much of that is improvement and how much of that is just variance both ways?

It looks to me that 10ft to the 3pt line collectively he shot 37% last year and 44% this year (on 139 attempts last year, and 75 this year). Screams small sample size to me and IDK if we can really say he has made significant improvement here, especially since he shots 39% here as a rookie and "regressed" as a 2nd and 3rd year player in these areas as well.

He is working more in the midrange, but again the shots don't come with any kind of gameplan or in the flow of a game. He just decides to hijack and take a tough 2 every once in a while. It's also at the cost of more shots inside. It is good for the team that he's taking more midrange 2s (and hitting them), but how it looks in a competitive game or what it means in a future structure where he might be bumped down the pecking order remains to be seen.

[ArthurVandelay]

Another?

He's the only elite ball handler on this team

I judge ball handlers by turnovers. Quickley is a 3:1 A:TO in his career, he's 3.7:1 in Toronto... that's not good, that's ELITE. Quickley dribbles with the purpose and never looses the ball.

Quickley, RJ, and Scottie have potential to be special. We just need to surround them with the right role players, and let them get reps in with each other. Add Gradey off the bench, scoring isn't the problem.

The team needs to decide if Barnes is a 3 or 4 moving forward. If he's a 3 we need a stretch 4. If he's our 4 moving forward then we need a 3+D wing. I like Quick + RJ as the guard rotation.

I think the best way to see it Scottie is the PG,
but IQ is the better ball handler right now.

they work well together.

A lot of Scottie's PG reps come with young (experience) players and non-shooter (What is he supposed to do with Mitchell, Jakob, Mogobo, Shead as spacers), and his ankle and eye injuries didn't help his shooting.
So, it looked bad.

Him taking the threes is to have defenses commit to him later on, because they only know him as a willing passer.

I think he's a comfortable 3 point shooter already, again playing through the injuries make it look worse.

With some spacers, it'll unlock everything else.

Nick Nurse should have given Scottie more on-ball reps in his 1st and 2nd years.

Exactly.

Scottie is being given the ball on the perimeter and being asked to shoot threes to develop those skills, not to make those things his bread and butter. Having those options as complements to what he can do 18 feet in will make him much more likely to be the player I think we all hope he can be.

He needs to be comfortable doing everything even if the pull-up 3 only becomes a release valve later on. Better to practice it now in a losing season.

There is another benefit of getting Scottie to play PG, on the perimeter, and shooting off the bounce/pull up threes as the team loses…

PG is what he’s always wanted to be and the team has encouraged it. I think this season should put that idea to rest for him. He can certainly grab the rebound and go, play PG at times, but the full time PG he envisions for himself is hopefully dead and buried in his own mind.

Once Scottie buys into his strengths and recognizes those strengths are what will best help the team win, I hope the type of game he played last night becomes the norm (minus the dance).

[Vampirate]

As for the whole narrative that he didn't improve, people need to look at what he's doing on his 2s

Essentially he got 24% better at 10-16ft and 17% worse from 16ft-3p line? How much of that is improvement and how much of that is just variance both ways?

It looks to me that 10ft to the 3pt line collectively he shot 37% last year and 44% this year (on 139 attempts last year, and 75 this year). Screams small sample size to me and IDK if we can really say he has made significant improvement here, especially since he shots 39% here as a rookie and "regressed" as a 2nd and 3rd year player in these areas as well.

Any regression from 10-16ft will probably make up by the possible positive regression from 16ft -3P.

Career wise he shoots .365 from 10-16ft and .375 from 16-3P.

It'll be interesting to see what sticks.

What's impressive is that he's shooting above 50% from 10-16ft on a growing sample size. if he maintains anything above .400, let alone .450+ it'll be 2 seasons of below 30%, 1 adequate season on rookie terms of .398 and 1 very good season (this year).

At that point it'll be harder to figure out where he stands shooting in that area due to having 2 seasons cancelling out the other 2 seasons.

[YogurtProducer]

As for the whole narrative that he didn't improve, people need to look at what he's doing on his 2s

Essentially he got 24% better at 10-16ft and 17% worse from 16ft-3p line? How much of that is improvement and how much of that is just variance both ways?

It looks to me that 10ft to the 3pt line collectively he shot 37% last year and 44% this year (on 139 attempts last year, and 75 this year). Screams small sample size to me and IDK if we can really say he has made significant improvement here, especially since he shots 39% here as a rookie and "regressed" as a 2nd and 3rd year player in these areas as well.

Any regression from 10-16ft will probably make up by the possible positive regression from 16ft -3P.

Career wise he shoots .365 from 10-16ft and .375 from 16-3P.

It'll be interesting to see what sticks.

What's impressive is that he's shooting above 50% from 10-16ft on a growing sample size. if he maintains anything above .400, let alone .450+ it'll be 2 seasons of below 30%, 1 adequate season on rookie terms of .398 and 1 very good season (this year).

At that point it'll be harder to figure out where he stands shooting in that area due to having 2 seasons cancelling out the other 2 seasons.

Not sure if the data exists easily, but I am pretty sure he did this last year to. Started the season shooting insanely hot from mid-range and cooled off over the season

[Tripod]

It's pretty funny that Barnes is a non scorer and has so many things to get better at....and he does....yet is 3rd in his draft class in PPG.

[Vampirate]

Essentially he got 24% better at 10-16ft and 17% worse from 16ft-3p line? How much of that is improvement and how much of that is just variance both ways?

It looks to me that 10ft to the 3pt line collectively he shot 37% last year and 44% this year (on 139 attempts last year, and 75 this year). Screams small sample size to me and IDK if we can really say he has made significant improvement here, especially since he shots 39% here as a rookie and "regressed" as a 2nd and 3rd year player in these areas as well.

Any regression from 10-16ft will probably make up by the possible positive regression from 16ft -3P.

Career wise he shoots .365 from 10-16ft and .375 from 16-3P.

It'll be interesting to see what sticks.

What's impressive is that he's shooting above 50% from 10-16ft on a growing sample size. if he maintains anything above .400, let alone .450+ it'll be 2 seasons of below 30%, 1 adequate season on rookie terms of .398 and 1 very good season (this year).

At that point it'll be harder to figure out where he stands shooting in that area due to having 2 seasons cancelling out the other 2 seasons.

Not sure if the data exists easily, but I am pretty sure he did this last year to. Started the season shooting insanely hot from mid-range and cooled off over the season

Not quite, from 16-3P he was shooting very well (finished near .450), but his shooting from 10-16ft was still ass.

That 10-16ft area has always been one of his Achilles heel, and considering he was shooting over .360 regularly from 16-3P it was also confusing. It's possible he didn't have the handle in that area.

But here's another way you can look at it.

At 3-10 feet he's obviously good (career .465), so it's not unheard of that he can improve a little bit further out.

[mihaic]

It's pretty funny that Barnes is a non scorer and has so many things to get better at....and he does....yet is 3rd in his draft class in PPG.

To me it's quite frustrating. I could be wrong but he has the tools to be a scorer. I understand shooting the 3, but he needs to learn a couple moves and that's a higher priority. Last game notwithstanding, he takes too many contested 3 this season that instead imo he should try to get in midrange, and shoot or pass from there.

[ArthurVandelay]

It's pretty funny that Barnes is a non scorer and has so many things to get better at....and he does....yet is 3rd in his draft class in PPG.

To me it's quite frustrating. I could be wrong but he has the tools to be a scorer. I understand shooting the 3, but he needs to learn a couple moves and that's a higher priority. Last game notwithstanding, he takes too many contested 3 this season that instead imo he should try to get in midrange, and shoot or pass from there.

It’s a fair point.

Don’t forget Darko has been saying he wants him to shoot at least 7 per game and off the bounce too

He’s doing what he’s being told it seems.

[Tripod]

It's pretty funny that Barnes is a non scorer and has so many things to get better at....and he does....yet is 3rd in his draft class in PPG.

To me it's quite frustrating. I could be wrong but he has the tools to be a scorer. I understand shooting the 3, but he needs to learn a couple moves and that's a higher priority. Last game notwithstanding, he takes too many contested 3 this season that instead imo he should try to get in midrange, and shoot or pass from there.

It’s a fair point.

Don’t forget Darko has been saying he wants him to shoot at least 7 per game and off the bounce too

He’s doing what he’s being told it seems.

Yeah he has certainly not been deployed to show HIS strengths. Thru injuries and development, he has been asked to do more to possibly expand his abilities and to get reps on.

I noted last game. When was the last time we saw someone else creating easy buckets for Barnes? It just rarely happened. But with IQ, it happened multiple times.

But thus is also why we need to see all these guys play together.

[Naysorn]

Watch on YouTube

[Scase]

It's not pull up 3s as much as it's shot distribution.

A whopping 35% of his total shots are the 3 which ideally should be around 25-28% or something.

It's both IMO. He's not a good enough shooter to be taking so many pull ups, nor should he be taking so many 3's in general. Let him cut his teeth on set shots until he's got that down consistently.

I have a hunch this year is about getting the movements before the shots in so it becomes more natural. Before the wacky dance he had a very clean move to the right for a pull up corner 3.

(also his 3 point shooting at above the break dead center is at 35%, the picture below is not including last night's game)



He needs one of those 20% or 28% to become over 30%

It's this off season when he actually needs to work on converting them.

I want him to be taking longer shots in general and not be post reliant.



As for the whole narrative that he didn't improve, people need to look at what he's doing on his 2s



Any improvement on his three (like a good month, and suddenly he's a 21-23PPG scorer, keeping in mind he's averaging 20 ppg despite the 3 point slump/regression/whatever you think it is.

I mean yeah, but look at his 16f-3p shooting, he got significantly worse. Him being a legit mid range threat would open up the entire court to him, a 6'9 guy jacking up ATB 3's even at 35% isn't doing half as much for his game. He doesn't have a good enough dribble or first step to blow past someone playing him close, so really unless he's knocking down high volume at like 38%+, he's going to be an easy cover.

This is very much a "The hunter who chases 3 rabbits, catches none" situation. Practising at multiple things at a time spreads you thin and slows down improvement over time.

[junot111]

It's pretty funny that Barnes is a non scorer and has so many things to get better at....and he does....yet is 3rd in his draft class in PPG.

To me it's quite frustrating. I could be wrong but he has the tools to be a scorer. I understand shooting the 3, but he needs to learn a couple moves and that's a higher priority. Last game notwithstanding, he takes too many contested 3 this season that instead imo he should try to get in midrange, and shoot or pass from there.

What moves do you think he can develop? He can't blow by defenders, doesn't have a great shooting touch, doesn't have elite ball control. He takes a lot of 3's because if he makes them, that's the quickest path to opening his offense. It's about time for us to accept that he's not going to be the elite scorer this team needs.

[720]

For the “hE hAs No BaG” people.

S/o Pensare for the tape.

[Thaddy]

For the “hE hAs No BaG” people.

S/o Pensare for the tape.

Making him the PG while IQ was out was the best move. It's incredibly obvious the biggest skill he lacks is ball security and ball handling. He has a bag but not a no.1 option type of bag.

[Scase]

For the “hE hAs No BaG” people.

S/o Pensare for the tape.

I love Scottie and am super high on him, but you can make a highlight video for any player in the league and it doesn't mean anything. Scottie until he can show that he can do these moves consistently on a game by game basis, will continue to be seen as a weak offensive player with no real go to moves.

The fact that he can put up 20ppg with no real moves is a great sign, but that doesn't mean he is safe from criticism. Scottie does the things showcased in that video like once every game or two, and he averages 16FGA a game, a guy doing something really nice less than 5% of the time doesn't mean he "has a bag". It means he is capable of having a bag.

The only place he's shown any sort of consistency and high level efficiency is under the basket, and his shot diet there has dropped dramatically (8%) since last year.

TLDR; a highlight video is no indication he "has a bag", and for him to be considered as such, those moves need to be seen on a regular basis, not once every couple of games.

[Vampirate]

It's both IMO. He's not a good enough shooter to be taking so many pull ups, nor should he be taking so many 3's in general. Let him cut his teeth on set shots until he's got that down consistently.

I have a hunch this year is about getting the movements before the shots in so it becomes more natural. Before the wacky dance he had a very clean move to the right for a pull up corner 3.

(also his 3 point shooting at above the break dead center is at 35%, the picture below is not including last night's game)



He needs one of those 20% or 28% to become over 30%

It's this off season when he actually needs to work on converting them.

I want him to be taking longer shots in general and not be post reliant.



As for the whole narrative that he didn't improve, people need to look at what he's doing on his 2s



Any improvement on his three (like a good month, and suddenly he's a 21-23PPG scorer, keeping in mind he's averaging 20 ppg despite the 3 point slump/regression/whatever you think it is.

I mean yeah, but look at his 16f-3p shooting, he got significantly worse. Him being a legit mid range threat would open up the entire court to him, a 6'9 guy jacking up ATB 3's even at 35% isn't doing half as much for his game. He doesn't have a good enough dribble or first step to blow past someone playing him close, so really unless he's knocking down high volume at like 38%+, he's going to be an easy cover.

This is very much a "The hunter who chases 3 rabbits, catches none" situation. Practising at multiple things at a time spreads you thin and slows down improvement over time.

If he's hitting 35% from ABT overall then his 3P % looks much better than it is now and he's likely a 22ppg 57-58 TS% player.

As for the whole spreading it around, I can argue that he specifically worked in the area at 10-16ft (which has been a sore spot).

Putting it another way if he maintains this to even a .450% percentage at that range, it's still a big sign because then you can argue he can extend out even further (if his 16-3P% doesn't improve, and there's more evidence that he's .350 in that area, but who knows)

Barnes has not just been taking more pull up 3s, but more pullups in general. Last year he took 3.1 pull ups total (2s and 3s) this year he's taking an average of 6 thus far (hitting 47% on his pull up 2s thus far) so to think he didn't work on this part very much is short sighted thinking imo.

If you're thinking he's not using the midrange more he is.

21.7% of his total shots are in the 10-3P range, last year it was 14.8%.

I suspect as the season goes along his shot diet at 3 will drop to 30%, and he seems to be taking less shots from 0-10ft 43.7% this year compared to 53.9% last year. (shooting 56.2% on his 2s so keep doing what you're doing here)

In short, he's evolving as a player, but the results are not exactly pretty atm.

[720]

For the “hE hAs No BaG” people.

S/o Pensare for the tape.

I love Scottie and am super high on him, but you can make a highlight video for any player in the league and it doesn't mean anything. Scottie until he can show that he can do these moves consistently on a game by game basis, will continue to be seen as a weak offensive player with no real go to moves.

The fact that he can put up 20ppg with no real moves is a great sign, but that doesn't mean he is safe from criticism. Scottie does the things showcased in that video like once every game or two, and he averages 16FGA a game, a guy doing something really nice less than 5% of the time doesn't mean he "has a bag". It means he is capable of having a bag.

The only place he's shown any sort of consistency and high level efficiency is under the basket, and his shot diet there has dropped dramatically (8%) since last year.

TLDR; a highlight video is no indication he "has a bag", and for him to be considered as such, those moves need to be seen on a regular basis, not once every couple of games.

Then the criticism should be why doesn’t he show his iso dribbling more often (I can think of a few reasons). Not that he has no bag.

[Vampirate]

It's pretty funny that Barnes is a non scorer and has so many things to get better at....and he does....yet is 3rd in his draft class in PPG.

To me it's quite frustrating. I could be wrong but he has the tools to be a scorer. I understand shooting the 3, but he needs to learn a couple moves and that's a higher priority. Last game notwithstanding, he takes too many contested 3 this season that instead imo he should try to get in midrange, and shoot or pass from there.

What moves do you think he can develop? He can't blow by defenders, doesn't have a great shooting touch, doesn't have elite ball control. He takes a lot of 3's because if he makes them, that's the quickest path to opening his offense. It's about time for us to accept that he's not going to be the elite scorer this team needs.

On his 3s yes, on his 2s it's quite a different story.

He's at 54.3% from 10-16ft thus far, indicating the midrange might actually become a thing, depends if he can raise his percentages from 16-3P.

[Tofubeque]

For the “hE hAs No BaG” people.

S/o Pensare for the tape.

I love Scottie and am super high on him, but you can make a highlight video for any player in the league and it doesn't mean anything. Scottie until he can show that he can do these moves consistently on a game by game basis, will continue to be seen as a weak offensive player with no real go to moves.

The fact that he can put up 20ppg with no real moves is a great sign, but that doesn't mean he is safe from criticism. Scottie does the things showcased in that video like once every game or two, and he averages 16FGA a game, a guy doing something really nice less than 5% of the time doesn't mean he "has a bag". It means he is capable of having a bag.

The only place he's shown any sort of consistency and high level efficiency is under the basket, and his shot diet there has dropped dramatically (8%) since last year.

TLDR; a highlight video is no indication he "has a bag", and for him to be considered as such, those moves need to be seen on a regular basis, not once every couple of games.

Then the criticism should be why doesn’t he show his iso dribbling more often (I can think of a few reasons). Not that he has no bag.

Scottie needs to get his ABG (ankle breaks per game) above 3 and raise his BAG% into the high .400s before we can say he has a bag