Ace Bailey

[clyde21]

lol his BPM actually dropped after yesterday's game, wild

[Jstock12]

lol his BPM actually dropped after yesterday's game, wild

It hasn't updated yet I believe. It still says he's averaging 18.2 ppg (it's now 19.9). I reckon it should go to 2.5 to 3 BPM after yesterday

[CptCrunch]

lol his BPM actually dropped after yesterday's game, wild

Ace's BPM is also inflated as he is classified as a guard by basketball-reference+. He is getting a lot of extra BPM points for O-Rebounds and Blocks and is being penalized way less for field goal.

[clyde21]

lol his BPM actually dropped after yesterday's game, wild

Ace's BPM is also inflated as he is classified as a guard by basketball-reference+. He is getting a lot of extra BPM points for O-Rebounds and Blocks and is being penalized way less for field goal.

yea, but that also means he's getting penalized heavily for A/TO rate.

[CptCrunch]

lol his BPM actually dropped after yesterday's game, wild

Ace's BPM is also inflated as he is classified as a guard by basketball-reference+. He is getting a lot of extra BPM points for O-Rebounds and Blocks and is being penalized way less for field goal.

yea, but that also means he's getting penalized heavily for A/TO rate.

That's false as TO has the same coefficient for all positions. Guards gets less from asssits, but Ace doesn't have any so it doesn't affect him at all.

Ace has a lot of rebounds (which inflates as guards have larger rebound coefficeints), has a lot of FGA (with inflates as guards are penalized less for FGA).

[clyde21]

Ace's BPM is also inflated as he is classified as a guard by basketball-reference+. He is getting a lot of extra BPM points for O-Rebounds and Blocks and is being penalized way less for field goal.

yea, but that also means he's getting penalized heavily for A/TO rate.

That's false as TO has the same coefficient for all positions. Guards gets less from asssits, but Ace doesn't have any so it doesn't affect him at all.

Ace has a lot of rebounds (which inflates as guards have larger rebound coefficeints), has a lot of FGA (with inflates as guards are penalized less for FGA).

since when is the A/TO rate the same for all positions for BPM? where is the source calc on that?

[EvanZ]

One thing that nobody seems to be talking about is that he's shooting 58% on free throws (45 attempts). It's not a huge sample but it's not so small that it's something to be easily dismissed. He's on track for ~150 FTA. I'd like to see him get up to 70%.

[Jstock12]

lol his BPM actually dropped after yesterday's game, wild

It hasn't updated yet I believe. It still says he's averaging 18.2 ppg (it's now 19.9). I reckon it should go to 2.5 to 3 BPM after yesterday

[CptCrunch]

yea, but that also means he's getting penalized heavily for A/TO rate.

That's false as TO has the same coefficient for all positions. Guards gets less from asssits, but Ace doesn't have any so it doesn't affect him at all.

Ace has a lot of rebounds (which inflates as guards have larger rebound coefficeints), has a lot of FGA (with inflates as guards are penalized less for FGA).

since when is the A/TO rate the same for all positions for BPM? where is the source calc on that?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html

Just adding some thoughts; whether Ace has 0.5, 1, -1 or 3 BPM doesn't matter. His BPM sucks, and that's not the central issue.

The issue is that he is a bad shot taker, volume scorer who isn't even efficient at scoring. Combined with non-existant passing, moderately high turnovers for a non-passer, questionable shooting (in terms of efficiency and FT), it is difficult to get excited about him as a top prospect

[Village Idiot]

The guy has a lot of talent but he seems like the definition of a ball-hog playing for the name on the back of the jersey. Gives me Carmelo Anthony vibes.

[clyde21]

That's false as TO has the same coefficient for all positions. Guards gets less from asssits, but Ace doesn't have any so it doesn't affect him at all.

Ace has a lot of rebounds (which inflates as guards have larger rebound coefficeints), has a lot of FGA (with inflates as guards are penalized less for FGA).

since when is the A/TO rate the same for all positions for BPM? where is the source calc on that?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html

okay, so this says assists are actually influenced positionally.

Assists are worth far more for a post player than for a point guard. Point guards handle the ball a lot and usually generate lower value assists. A center’s assists are usually very high value. In addition, post players that pass well are typically better defenders.

[clyde21]

lol his BPM actually dropped after yesterday's game, wild

It hasn't updated yet I believe. It still says he's averaging 18.2 ppg (it's now 19.9). I reckon it should go to 2.5 to 3 BPM after yesterday

there it is, it actually more than doubled his BPM lol

[clyde21]

One thing that nobody seems to be talking about is that he's shooting 58% on free throws (45 attempts). It's not a huge sample but it's not so small that it's something to be easily dismissed. He's on track for ~150 FTA. I'd like to see him get up to 70%.

talked about it in the other thread, the FT rate and % scare me more than his BPM

[JMAC3]

I just don't think his game meshes well for the college game where it is either best to be 7 footer who can dominate inside or a big guard who can overpower much smaller D1 guards. He is still very good college player, but the game isn't as easy with limited space for these skinny wings/fowards.

His game is going to be a much better fit in the NBA where big off the ball shooters who can attack closeouts is the meta. Even if the self creation turns out to be a mirage you are still looking at a MPJ, Cam Johnson, Trey Murphy type of player that fits on almost any team.

[Catchall]

One thing that nobody seems to be talking about is that he's shooting 58% on free throws (45 attempts). It's not a huge sample but it's not so small that it's something to be easily dismissed. He's on track for ~150 FTA. I'd like to see him get up to 70%.

talked about it in the other thread, the FT rate and % scare me more than his BPM

I have Tre Johnson ahead of Bailey largely due to this.

[Chi town]

I just don't think his game meshes well for the college game where it is either best to be 7 footer who can dominate inside or a big guard who can overpower much smaller D1 guards. He is still very good college player, but the game isn't as easy with limited space for these skinny wings/fowards.

His game is going to be a much better fit in the NBA where big off the ball shooters who can attack closeouts is the meta. Even if the self creation turns out to be a mirage you are still looking at a MPJ, Cam Johnson, Trey Murphy type of player that fits on almost any team.

Bingo. Due to his surprising D he has a very high floor. He’s actually a safe pick. If he can learn on ball creation then he becomes something special.

MPJ with strong D is a player you can win with.

[The-Power]

talked about it in the other thread, the FT rate and % scare me more than his BPM

I have Tre Johnson ahead of Bailey largely due to this.

Tre has other issues, most notably that he is a much worse defender in comparison to Bailey. And in terms of FTr they are both at the same (below average) level. Still, I can fully understand having Tre ahead – but he has his own shortcomings.

Bingo. Due to his surprising D he has a very high floor. He’s actually a safe pick. If he can learn on ball creation then he becomes something special.

MPJ with strong D is a player you can win with.

It's too optimistic to already have him pegged as a MPJ+ player in the NBA. I agree, however, that he does have a fairly high floor. In fact, that to me is his main selling point right now. It is the limited ceiling and clear limitations that keep him from being higher for me.

[FarBeyondDriven]

talked about it in the other thread, the FT rate and % scare me more than his BPM

I have Tre Johnson ahead of Bailey largely due to this.

Tre has other issues, most notably that he is a much worse defender in comparison to Bailey. And in terms of FTr they are both at the same (below average) level. Still, I can fully understand having Tre ahead – but he has his own shortcomings.

Bingo. Due to his surprising D he has a very high floor. He’s actually a safe pick. If he can learn on ball creation then he becomes something special.

MPJ with strong D is a player you can win with.

It's too optimistic to already have him pegged as a MPJ+ player in the NBA. I agree, however, that he does have a fairly high floor. In fact, that to me is his main selling point right now. It is the limited ceiling and clear limitations that keep him from being higher for me.

I too find him similar to MPJ and Smith because there's a herky jerky stiffness to each of them. They're all waist benders with poor handles but they can get their shot off due to their height and at least with Bailey and Smith, can defend. I think Baily is the most athletic of the three but he might have the lowest BBIQ of the three. I just can't see teams taking Tre or anyone else over him. Talent at that size is tantalizing. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he went over Harper. The race for #2 is between them and will likely be the hot topic of the draft come draft night.

[The-Power]

I too find him similar to MPJ and Smith because there's a herky jerky stiffness to each of them. They're all waist benders with poor handles but they can get their shot off due to their height and at least with Bailey and Smith, can defend. I think Baily is the most athletic of the three but he might have the lowest BBIQ of the three. I just can't see teams taking Tre or anyone else over him. Talent at that size is tantalizing. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he went over Harper. The race for #2 is between them and will likely be the hot topic of the draft come draft night.

I pretty much completely agree with your assessment and the comparisons (MPJ and Smith Jr.). I just think that pushes him somewhere into the middle or second half of the lottery. Now, to be fair, there are a bunch of players that are difficult for me to rank in that 4-12 range – so I don't think having him closer to the top of the draft is anything crazy.

But with his BBIQ concerns and shot creation limitations (for others but also for himself) I do personally feel better selecting someone who is much better in those regards even if they do not have his size or defensive upside. Or to frame it differently: I think Bailey has a pretty solid chance to be the 4th or maybe even 3rd best player on a high-level playoff team (as long as he accepts a reduced role); but I'd be aiming higher in that range of the draft (fully aware that this also comes with risks).

[JMAC3]

I too find him similar to MPJ and Smith because there's a herky jerky stiffness to each of them. They're all waist benders with poor handles but they can get their shot off due to their height and at least with Bailey and Smith, can defend. I think Baily is the most athletic of the three but he might have the lowest BBIQ of the three. I just can't see teams taking Tre or anyone else over him. Talent at that size is tantalizing. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he went over Harper. The race for #2 is between them and will likely be the hot topic of the draft come draft night.

I pretty much completely agree with your assessment and the comparisons (MPJ and Smith Jr.). I just think that pushes him somewhere into the middle or second half of the lottery. Now, to be fair, there are a bunch of players that are difficult for me to rank in that 4-12 range – so I don't think having him closer to the top of the draft is anything crazy.

But with his BBIQ concerns and shot creation limitations (for others but also for himself) I do personally feel better selecting someone who is much better in those regards even if they do not have his size or defensive upside. Or to frame it differently: I think Bailey has a pretty solid chance to be the 4th or maybe even 3rd best player on a high-level playoff team (as long as he accepts a reduced role); but I'd be aiming higher in that range of the draft (fully aware that this also comes with risks).

I don't think he has issues creating for himself, he is averaging 20 ppg. Just scored 39 basically on all self created offense. Yes, his playmaking for others isn't special but again at age 18 there is a lot of time for him to improve into a better playmaker. Even without it he will be a very unique NBA player and if the playmaking does develop he is probably a star.

All the new age basketball haters, this is the perfect basketball prospect that is going to iso from 15 ft and hit a bunch of tough middies in the NBA. That is the player everyone claims can save basketball, but when those players come around all we do is hate on them. Only 28% of his "other twos" have been assisted on, which is 14 out of 50 midranges. 36 self created midrange makes so far, he is shooting 50/97 from other two as well so he has been very good.

For instance
Harper is 11/42 on "other 2s" or 26%
Flagg is "25/67 on "other 2s" or 37%
Ace Bailey is 50/97 on "other 2s" or 51.5%