Tyrus Thomas or Patrick Williams

[ShadyMoney]

Tyrus was the better player.

[HearshotKDS]

Tyrus in my opinion, super high ceiling that seemingly didnt have the work ethic to get there. But he had a ton of flashes and glimpses of what he could be. Patrick Williams, while possessing physical traits to drool over, really never flashed at any level of play and has basically been the same person his entire career. Some posters put their faith in him somehow changing his entire mentality and playstyle to be more aggressive, but as time goes on and PWill shows the same play over and over again it becomes more of a "well shame on you for crazy expectations" not a "shame on him" issue like many felt with Tyrus.

[bullsnewdynasty]

I posted this here 2.5 years ago and I'll say that I don't recant a single word.

Patrick Williams. I want him traded before everyone else figures out he sucks and that he'll be a Wesley Johnson type his whole career.

Capitalize on the "top 5" pick thing while it's still possible.

[ChiefILL53]

going into this thread I thought we were choosing who we'd take. My pick woulda been Tyrus. At least he gave effort and hustle and was a freak athlete to boot. PWill is absolutely the bigger disappointment cuz (outside of athleticism) he has tools to be a really good player and just shows nothing most nights. Ty wasnt very good and didnt hit his potential, but I count effort for something. Sometimes I still wish we'd kept LMA tho

[DuckIII]

Thomas was waived by a bad team and out of the NBA completely by age 26. He was an actual, certified bust.

[GoBlue72391]

Tyrus Thomas being an elite prospect seems like revisionism to me.

When I think of elite prospects, I don't think of him at all.

Elite is definitely overselling it, but he was a high-ceiling prospect for sure. Low floor-high ceiling, boom or bust guy. People saying he was an elite prospect and had elite college stats are either misremembering or too lazy to look things up before they post what they faultily think they remember.

Pat has the higher floor for sure, but when that floor is Tony Snell I don't think it matters that much.

[dougthonus]

Pat's now probably a MLE guy right now.

Presently:
Decent/good man defender
Decent 3 point shooter (good percentage wise, but low volume / no scale)

So based on the MLE scale, Pat's probably overpaid based on present skillset by 14.6M over 4 years given the MLE will rise by 10% per year but Pat's contract will stay flat (ie, gap is basically 5.1M + 3.8M + 2.4M + .9M).

If he makes any of these reasonable iterative improvements:
Improves release speed / scale of three point shots
Improves help defense ability
Improves ability to cut / generate more action inside the paint
Improves ability to finish / draw fouls

Then depending on the magnitude of those improvements, it is fairly trivial for him to transform into say a 25M per year type of player in the next couple of years. I'm not talking about becoming a dominant offensive player, but say he gets his release speed up or starts taking more advanced side step 3s, and now gets 6 attempts up per game instead of 4 on the same percentage. Say he just can consistently hit 50% of his inside shots or draw 2 more FTA attempts per game. Say he just improves his court awareness and his help defense continues to evolve and he becomes a better team defender.

Any of those things could make a big impact on his value and none of them are in the range of requiring massive shifts in what he has to learn or do.

I get that its frustrating that at pick #4 we only got a MLE type guy, and maybe the bar for Pat there is low, but distancing yourself from his draft selection in a bad draft and now thinking of him as a FA signing on a 4/18M per year deal, you have to evaluate him based on the 2nd of those things going forward. On that value, we're not winning the deal now, but it's pretty reasonable to think we still might do fine with it in the future and certainly didn't get killed on it.

[GoBlue72391]

I posted this here 2.5 years ago and I'll say that I don't recant a single word.

Patrick Williams. I want him traded before everyone else figures out he sucks and that he'll be a Wesley Johnson type his whole career.

Capitalize on the "top 5" pick thing while it's still possible.

I remember constantly repeating "trade this guy before the luster of being a top pick wears off" too

[League Circles]

Thomas was waived by a bad team and out of the NBA completely by age 26. He was an actual, certified bust.

And it was actually an amnesty by the team that signed him to a 5 year deal!

[GoBlue72391]

Thomas was waived by a bad team and out of the NBA completely by age 26. He was an actual, certified bust.

But what a fun few years it was. The star that burns brightest lasts half as long, or however that goes.

[GoBlue72391]

Pat's now probably a MLE guy right now.

Presently:
Decent/good man defender
Decent 3 point shooter (good percentage wise, but low volume / no scale)

So based on the MLE scale, Pat's probably overpaid based on present skillset by 14.6M over 4 years given the MLE will rise by 10% per year but Pat's contract will stay flat (ie, gap is basically 5.1M + 3.8M + 2.4M + .9M).

If he makes any of these reasonable iterative improvements:
Improves release speed / scale of three point shots
Improves help defense ability
Improves ability to cut / generate more action inside the paint
Improves ability to finish / draw fouls

Then depending on the magnitude of those improvements, it is fairly trivial for him to transform into say a 25M per year type of player in the next couple of years. I'm not talking about becoming a dominant offensive player, but say he gets his release speed up or starts taking more advanced side step 3s, and now gets 6 attempts up per game instead of 4 on the same percentage. Say he just can consistently hit 50% of his inside shots or draw 2 more FTA attempts per game. Say he just improves his court awareness and his help defense continues to evolve and he becomes a better team defender.

Any of those things could make a big impact on his value and none of them are in the range of requiring massive shifts in what he has to learn or do.

I get that its frustrating that at pick #4 we only got a MLE type guy, and maybe the bar for Pat there is low, but distancing yourself from his draft selection in a bad draft and now thinking of him as a FA signing on a 4/18M per year deal, you have to evaluate him based on the 2nd of those things going forward. On that value, we're not winning the deal now, but it's pretty reasonable to think we still might do fine with it in the future and certainly didn't get killed on it.

At this point I'm not sure you can assume Pat will make any improvements to his game, big or small. Aside from maybe losing some weight and working his way back into rhythm after missing time, that is. He really hasn't improved anything 5 years in.

I think his release speed would have been improved already if that was ever going to happen, since that seems to be the easiest and most obvious way to improve and increase his value.

Maybe the biggest issue is he's usually hurt during the offseason, which is the time for players to improve their games. But even if he wasn't, I'm not confident that he would come back next season with anything new.

[dougthonus]

At this point I'm not sure you can assume Pat will make any improvements to his game, big or small. Aside from maybe losing some weight and working his way back into rhythm after missing time, that is. He really hasn't improved anything 5 years in.

I think his release speed would have been improved already if that was ever going to happen, since that seems to be the easiest and most obvious way to improve and increase his value.

Maybe the biggest issue is he's usually hurt during the offseason, which is the time for players to improve their games. But even if he wasn't, I'm not confident that he would come back next season with anything new.

FWIW, I don't assume Pat will make improvements. I said it is reasonable that he might. It is worth noting that you typically make improvements during the off-season and Pat has lost a lot of that time due to injury and recovery. I don't expect him to come back with anything new, but I do think the things I mentioned aren't really new, just things he'll likely slowly get 1-2% better at every year based on experience and reps.

But again, if he doesn't improve at all and simply doesn't regress, then I think he's over paid by 14M over 4 years (or 2.5M per year) which seems like a fair and reasonable price for the potential on iterative improvements going forward. I think the biggest risk was actually that he wasn't going to get over the foot thing and would have an injury plagued season and maybe be perpetually hurt going forward, and while that risk didn't pan out, it certainly might have given he was still recovering 3 months after the deal was signed and was already late in recovery when the deal was signed.

Anyway, not really disagreeing with anything you say otherwise, just clarifying my thoughts a bit. Good chance he doesn't get any better and the injury risk is definitely a challenge, but feels less concerning to me now than it did in June (thank goodness).

[Jcool0]

Was an option at #4

Read on Twitter

[kodo]

https://www.theringer.com/2025/01/06/nba/least-improved-players-tyrese-haliburton-jalen-green

The Least Improved Players of the 2024-25 NBA Season

Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls
Williams is 23 years old and a few months into his fifth season, which doubles as the first of a $90 million contract extension that runs through 2029. The Bulls obviously thought they were investing in someone whose immense physical gifts would eventually translate into reliable, game-changing production. Instead, on a team that’s transformed itself in ways that should cater to Williams’s theoretical skill set—i.e., faster with more spacing—he’s flatlined.

By essentially replacing DeMar DeRozan with a pair of brilliant, pass-first guards (Josh Giddey and Lonzo Ball), the Bulls have gone from one of the league’s slowest, more antiquated offensive attacks to a 3-point-loving track-and-field team. On paper, this looks like a blessing for Williams. On the court, he’s reacted to Chicago’s stylistic renovation by becoming one of the least efficient shooters in the league, and his minutes, shots, free throws, points, and usage have all plateaued. Remarkably, Williams has missed more shots at the rim than he’s made.

It’s gotten so bad that defenses are happy to let their centers roam off of Williams and treat him as a complete non-threat, even though he had made 41 percent of his 3s coming into this season and is now launching more per 100 possessions than ever before. Sometimes he capitalizes on the disrespect.

But more often than not, this strategy stifles Chicago’s offense and helps explain why it’s so much more efficient in the half court when Williams is on the bench.

He’s also never had much of an off hand, and according to Sportradar, he is generating only 0.64 points per chance on drives going left (good for 206th out of 209 players who’ve logged at least 30 drives this season). Confidence is scarce in these plays.

So as long as he never goes left, he's got a good career ahead of him.