Retro Player of the Year 2003-04 UPDATE — Kevin Garnett

[AEnigma]

General Project Discussion Thread

Discussion and Results from the 2010 Project

In this thread we'll discuss and vote on the top 5 players and the top 3 offensive and defensive players of 2003-04.

Player of the Year (POY)(5) — most accomplished overall player of that season
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)(3) — most accomplished offensive player of that season
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)(3) — most accomplished defensive player of that season

Voting will close sometime after 17:30PM EST on Wednesday, January 8th. I have no issue keeping it open so long as discussion is strong, but please try to vote within the first three days.

Valid ballots must provide an explanation for your choices that gives us a window into how you thought and why you came to the decisions you did. You can vote for any of the three awards — although they must be complete votes — but I will only tally votes for an award when there are at least five valid ballots submitted for it.

Remember, your votes must be based on THIS season. This is intended to give wide wiggle room for personal philosophies while still providing a boundary to make sure the award can be said to mean something. You can factor things like degree of difficulty as defined by you, but what you can't do is ignore how the player actually played on the floor this season in favor of what he might have done if only...

You may change your vote, but if you do, edit your original post rather than writing, "hey, ignore my last post, this is my real post until I change my mind again.” I similarly ask that ballots be kept in one post rather than making one post for Player of the Year, one post for Offensive Player of the Year, and/or one post for Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to provide your reasoning that way for the sake of discussion, fine, but please keep the official votes themselves in one aggregated post. Finally, for ease of tallying, I prefer for you to place your votes at the beginning of your balloting post, with some formatting that makes them stand out. I will not discount votes which fail to follow these requests, but I am certainly more likely to overlook them.

Contrarian votes can be and have been sincere, but they look a lot more sincere when you take the time to fully present your reasoning rather than transparently pretend nothing is amiss.

Vote sincerely. Do not move a player down in your voting to give another player an advantage. I would encourage every voter to give some explanations while they do their voting - but particularly if you have a top 5 that deviates strongly with the norm and you haven't expressed your thoughts on it earlier in the thread. If I'm not satisfied, I may ask you for more of an explanation - and it may come to actually booting people out of the project.

The rules here are that you've got to use the same type of thinking for all 5 votes. I understand putting more thought into #1 than #5, but I don't want PJ Brown votes. Voters do Brown type votes to give a guy an honorable mention. Makes sense if people only care about who finishes 1st, but I've been clear that I want to measure more than that. I've been trying to encourage literal "honorable mentions" to serve that purpose, and I'd ask that people use that as the way they honor guys who did something special but who aren't actually a top 5 guy that year.

There is a significant difference between a properly justified and internally consistent contrarian vote, and a vote whose purpose is to undermine the project itself. Ballots which threaten to do the latter and derail project discussion via blatant vote manipulation are liable to be tossed. If it happens twice, the offending poster will be removed from the project.

Current Voter List

Spoiler:

[One_and_Done]

1) Duncan
2) Shaq
3) KG


4) Dirk
5) B.Wallace

I know Duncan missed some games, and his support cast was now much better compared to 01-03, but it still wasn’t that good. In games Duncan played the Spurs were 51-18 (a 61 win pace). In games he missed they were 6-7. I dock Duncan and Shaq a little for playing fewer games than KG, but ultimately they were just better and more impactful players so I have to go with them.

This was the last year of Duncan’s best form. The injury he sustained mid-year seemed to be what started to cause a very gradual decline. I know it was a foot injury, so I’m not sure if it led to overcompensation issues, or maybe his knees were just declining regardless, but the slight drop was pretty clear to these eyes. In any event, even though he was still in his prime I don’t put 05-07 Duncan on quite the same level as 04, and certainly not 02 or 03.

The Spurs D improved substantially despite switching out D.Rob and S.Jax for Rasho, Hedo and Horry. That’s a testament to how incredible Duncan’s defensive presence still was. Obviously they lost to the Lakers, but given their far better support cast I can hardly put that on Duncan. As it was he made a miracle shot, that should have beaten the Lakers (Fisher’s 3 would be illegal under current NBA rules, as the rules stipulate it is physically not possible to get a shot off with so little time left). The refs basically handed that series to LA. While Duncan was doubled by Shaq and K.Malone on one end, his support cast really played badly v.s LA. Rasho was invisible, and while Duncan did his job in creating open shots every time he was doubled the Spurs were bricking everything. They shot 38 out of 124 threes (a mere 30%). If the Spurs role players had just hit their wide open shots, the Spurs win.

KG had a better support cast probably, given the inexperience and poor PS performance from some of the Spurs role players. This definitely wasn’t one of those clutch Horry performances. I know Cassell got hurt v.s the Lakers, but they were never winning that series anyway. A big reason why was because KG couldn’t do anything v.s Shaq, and had a bit of a sub-par series given his usual high standards.

I’m torn on 4 and 5, where there’s a real drop off. Dirk took fewer shots, but that was largely a consequences of the reduced role he was asked to take in order to accommodate all the extra scorers Dallas had (foolishly) added. It’s not like he was any worse than in previous years. Peja is a bit of an anomaly this year. I’m not sure whether I can really justify him as a top 5 player, and I did consider other names like Ben Wallace. I didn’t give Kobe much consideration. He failed to carry the Lakers when the guys around him missed games, and then he shot them out of the finals with an all-time terrible and selfish performance. Hard to list him after that. For now I’m keeping Peja, who led the Kings to a remarkable 44-15 record until Webber came back and ruined everything.

EDIT: on reflection I think I have to put Ben over Peja.

[Lebronnygoat]

Duncan led a +9.0NRTG when playing, meanwhile, KG led a +6.1. Duncan had also anchored the GOAT defense since Russell (-8.8rDRTG). When comparing rosters, I don’t see a huge gap. Cassell obviously clears any player on the Spurs not named Duncan. Manu was probably more of a key piece than Parker IMO, so I would go…

Cassell >> Manu
Sprewell >= Parker (17/4/4 49.3% vs 15/6/3 51.6%)
Bowen > Hoiberg (7/3/1 51.2% vs 7/3/1 61.1%)
Hedo >> Trenton (9/5/2 51.6% vs 5/3/2 49.8%)
Rasho > Olowokandi (

As you can see, the top 3 cast members are basically in favor of Garnett with the best cast member clearing the other’s cast member. The Spurs simply had a few more depth players.

In terms of the playoffs, we see Duncan average (per75)
26/3/11 on +8.1rTS vs a good defense in Memphis. They had a +19srs in this first round. I don’t see any KG series topping this one. When it come: to common opposition, their statlines were as follows
Duncan- 20/3/12 +2.0rTS
Garnett- 22/4/13 +0.3rTS

I think game 1 Duncan is a better game than Garnett ever had vs LA. KG’s game 4 is better than Duncan’s 2nd best however, but Duncan’s game 5 should be better than KG’s 3rd best game (game 2).

I feel like you would have to harp on KG playing one more round (doesn’t seem fair, both played the same team they lost to, Duncan just faced his sooner and his team played horrible on offense, 45.7% team true shooting. Duncan did his job, held the Lakers to a 100ORTG after being a 106 in the regular season, though he did have some lackluster games, like Garnett ofc, no one’s perfect here. Kobe did his damage vs the Wolves in the paint, 71% at the rim and 35% in the mid range. Against the Spurs, he shot 59%… but 45% in the mid range. Seems like Sprewell played better defense than Bowen on Kobe. Shaq played too good however, neither KG or Duncan necessarily guarded Shaq a lot of the time, but KG being a better roamer may have been the consequence of that so I will tip my hat off to that.

Duncan in the ‘04 Playoffs-
23/4/12 +4.2rTS
Garnett in the ‘04 Playoffs-
22/5/13 -0.6rTS

Duncan in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/3/14 53.4%
Garnett in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/5/14 54.7%

I don’t see where people say KG unanimously was the best player, or obviously. There’s no definitive choice here, but I think Duncan has the best argument.

[Lebronnygoat]

Also want to mention, Cassell did get injured vs LA, but Wally was back. So that should be noted, though, Cassell is a clearly better basketball player.

[trelos6]

OPOY

1.Steve Nash. 16.7 pp75 on +7.4 rTS%. One of the best playmakers and passers in the league. Plus, that small fact that this was the greatest offense relative to league average ever. +9.2 rOrtg. Looking at the greatest relative offenses of all time, they have a common theme. #1 ‘04 Dallas, #2 ‘05 Phoenix, #4 ‘02 Dallas, #5 ‘10 Phoenix, #10 ‘07 Phoenix.

2.Peja Stojakovic. Speaking of greatest offenses, ‘04 Sacramento are 11th with a rOrtg of +7.4. That’s largely on the back of Peja and his 23.3 pp75 on +10.8 rTS%.

3.Kevin Garnett. Yes, adding Cassell was a huge improvement for the Wolves, but KG was still the man in a top 5 offense. 24.9 pp75 on +3.1 rTS%, team rOrtg of +3. I really wanted to give Dirk the #3, but I couldn’t get there. Playoffs scoring dropped to 22.4 on league average.

DPOY

1.Ben Wallace. Won the title based off their fantastic defense, and Wallace was the standout. 87 Drtg. +5.57 DPIPM.

2.Kevin Garnett. Top 6 regular season defense. 92 Drtg. Upped his Reb% and best Block% of his career (just about).

3.Tim Duncan. Best defense in the regular season. Duncan had a 89 Drtg.


POY

1.Kevin Garnett. He’s my #3 OPOY, #2 DPOY, KG had a monster year. +4.72 OPIPM, +3.35 DPIPM, +8.06 PIPM. 27.53 Wins Added. +8.9 xRAPM!

2.Tim Duncan. 24.6 pp75 on +1.8 rTS%. Playoffs volume decreased, but efficiency increased. Great defense as usual. +1.49 OPIPM, +4.54 DPIPM. +6.03 PIPM. 17.15 Wins Added.

3.Shaquille O’Neal. +2.88 OPIPM, +2.43 DPIPM, +5.31 PIPM. 17.8 Wins Added. 22.8 pp75 on +6.2 rTS%. Was still great in the playoffs, 21.45 +5%.

4.Dirk Nowitzki. 22.3 pp75 on +4.5 rTS%. His shooting at the center position unlocked the greatest offense relative to the league of all time. Playoffs, small sample but increased scoring to 23.5 pp75 on +4.5%. +3.75 OPIPM, +0.73 DPIPM, +4.48 PIPM. 14.4 Wins Added

5.Kobe Bryant. Gets the nod over Nash. 24.8 pp75, +3.5 rTS%, solid defense (about to fall off a cliff defensively for a few years). +2.75 OPIPM, -0.06 DPIPM, +2.69 PIPM, 12.09 Wins Added.

[penbeast0]

The top tier teams in the regular season this year are Indiana with a defense led by Jermaine O'Neale and Ron Artest, Minnesota where Garnett got Sam Cassell to play Robin, San Antonio where David Robinson's retirement didn't stop them from still having the best Drtg in the league, LA which went for a superteam with Karl Malone adding to Shaq, Kobe and company (but Malone finally had an injury year), Sacramento where Peja and Vlade led them to 54 wins with Webber playing only 23 games, Detroit where Billups and the Wallace Bros led an ensemble cast, plus Dallas with Dirk and Finley, and the Pau Gasol led Memphis all winning 50+ games.

This may have been one of the all time great Coach of the Year years with a lot of great performances by teams with underwhelming star talent. In the playoffs, Detroit beat the heavily favored Lakers for the title. MVP and rebound leader was Kevin Garnett, Tmac led in scoring, Kidd led again in assists, and Artest won DPOY. The box score compilation stats were all dominated by Garnett with Duncan finishing second in 3 of the 4 (and 3rd in the 4th).

Player of the Year
1. Kevin Garnett -- played more games with a slight stat advantage and even an extra round of playoffs compared to Duncan.
2. Tim Duncan -- the other top candidate pretty clearly.
3. Ron Artest. In team results, it was either Jermaine O'Neal or Ron Artest. I have JO more valuable defensively, Artest offensively despite the DPOY. They were the best RS team and went to the ECF as well with less around them than the big 3 in Detroit.
4. Ben Wallace. One of the big 3 from Detroit is my choice here with the Kobe/Shaq disfunction in LA. Billups was the offensive leader, Ben the defensive leader, Rasheed the #2 or 3 guy in both directions (Rip may have been #2 offensively). Other posters gave arguments for favoring Ben Wallace over Chauncey Billups so since it was close for me, I'll go with the Fro.
5. Jermaine O'Neal. Thought about Peja, Dirk, or Pau but all were unimpressive in the playoffs and other posters convinced me to slightly favor the crazy guy for #3.

[Djoker]

Duncan, Kobe and Shaq all had down years so KG at #1 seems pretty likely for me. In fact, no one really stood out individually so KG may have been the playoff MVP too despite losing in the WCF. The Pistons were a great ensemble and so nobody on there will likely make my ballot. Pacers also a terrific team but likewise no individual giants.

[LA Bird]

I know Duncan missed some games, and his support cast was now much better compared to 01-03, but it still wasn’t that good. In games Duncan played the Spurs were 51-18 (a 61 win pace). In games he missed they were 6-7.

Spurs' +2.8 net rating with Duncan off the court was pretty good, especially in comparison to the Wolves' -10.9 without Garnett. For WOWY, Parker also missed 3 of those games so it wasn't just Duncan's absence alone and the Spurs performed quite well by SRS (+5.3) when you control for that. Maybe you'll say W/L is what matters and SRS is irrelevant but I don't consider single possession losses to the likes of full health Lakers and Mavs without both Duncan and Parker an indictment of the Spurs supporting cast.

I dock Duncan and Shaq a little for playing fewer games than KG, but ultimately they were just better and more impactful players so I have to go with them.

You can label other players as "better" if you want but to say they were "more impactful" than KG this year is a hard sell when he indisputably smoked the league in impact stats.

Duncan in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/3/14 53.4%
Garnett in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/5/14 54.7%

I don’t see where people say KG unanimously was the best player, or obviously. There’s no definitive choice here, but I think Duncan has the best argument.

Garnett is ahead in every single stat there even if it's not evident because of rounding. And you are also quoting per possession numbers in a year where Garnett played 27% more than Duncan. That's like comparing per 36 numbers for a 30 mpg and 38 mpg player. Duncan should be consensus #2 but this is Garnett's year.

[jjgp111292]

The Spurs D improved substantially despite switching out D.Rob and S.Jax for Rasho, Hedo and Horry. That’s a testament to how incredible Duncan’s defensive presence still was. Obviously they lost to the Lakers, but given their far better support cast I can hardly put that on Duncan. As it was he made a miracle shot, that should have beaten the Lakers (Fisher’s 3 would be illegal under current NBA rules, as the rules stipulate it is physically not possible to get a shot off with so little time left). The refs basically handed that series to LA.

The rule is less than .3 seconds actually, not .4 seconds like what Fisher had. And the rule's been around since 1990

[One_and_Done]

The Spurs D improved substantially despite switching out D.Rob and S.Jax for Rasho, Hedo and Horry. That’s a testament to how incredible Duncan’s defensive presence still was. Obviously they lost to the Lakers, but given their far better support cast I can hardly put that on Duncan. As it was he made a miracle shot, that should have beaten the Lakers (Fisher’s 3 would be illegal under current NBA rules, as the rules stipulate it is physically not possible to get a shot off with so little time left). The refs basically handed that series to LA.

The rule is less than .3 seconds actually, not .4 seconds like what Fisher had. And the rule's been around since 1990

Well, by rule it may have technically been possible, but given Fisher had to not only catch the ball but spin his entire body around and shoot, I can't see any logical reason it should have counted.

[One_and_Done]

I know Duncan missed some games, and his support cast was now much better compared to 01-03, but it still wasn’t that good. In games Duncan played the Spurs were 51-18 (a 61 win pace). In games he missed they were 6-7.

Spurs' +2.8 net rating with Duncan off the court was pretty good, especially in comparison to the Wolves' -10.9 without Garnett. For WOWY, Parker also missed 3 of those games so it wasn't just Duncan's absence alone and the Spurs performed quite well by SRS (+5.3) when you control for that. Maybe you'll say W/L is what matters and SRS is irrelevant but I don't consider single possession losses to the likes of full health Lakers and Mavs without both Duncan and Parker an indictment of the Spurs supporting cast.

I dock Duncan and Shaq a little for playing fewer games than KG, but ultimately they were just better and more impactful players so I have to go with them.

You can label other players as "better" if you want but to say they were "more impactful" than KG this year is a hard sell when he indisputably smoked the league in impact stats.

Duncan in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/3/14 53.4%
Garnett in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/5/14 54.7%

I don’t see where people say KG unanimously was the best player, or obviously. There’s no definitive choice here, but I think Duncan has the best argument.

Garnett is ahead in every single stat there even if it's not evident because of rounding. And you are also quoting per possession numbers in a year where Garnett played 27% more than Duncan. That's like comparing per 36 numbers for a 30 mpg and 38 mpg player. Duncan should be consensus #2 but this is Garnett's year.

To me 'impactful' and 'better' are the same thing. Duncan missing a few RS games is not enough to put him behind the clearly inferior player. I don't care if plus minus like KG more, Duncan and Shaq were both better players this year.

[OhayoKD]

I know Duncan missed some games, and his support cast was now much better compared to 01-03, but it still wasn’t that good. In games Duncan played the Spurs were 51-18 (a 61 win pace). In games he missed they were 6-7.

Spurs' +2.8 net rating with Duncan off the court was pretty good, especially in comparison to the Wolves' -10.9 without Garnett. For WOWY, Parker also missed 3 of those games so it wasn't just Duncan's absence alone and the Spurs performed quite well by SRS (+5.3) when you control for that. Maybe you'll say W/L is what matters and SRS is irrelevant but I don't consider single possession losses to the likes of full health Lakers and Mavs without both Duncan and Parker an indictment of the Spurs supporting cast.

I dock Duncan and Shaq a little for playing fewer games than KG, but ultimately they were just better and more impactful players so I have to go with them.

You can label other players as "better" if you want but to say they were "more impactful" than KG this year is a hard sell when he indisputably smoked the league in impact stats.

Duncan in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/3/14 53.4%
Garnett in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/5/14 54.7%

I don’t see where people say KG unanimously was the best player, or obviously. There’s no definitive choice here, but I think Duncan has the best argument.

Garnett is ahead in every single stat there even if it's not evident because of rounding. And you are also quoting per possession numbers in a year where Garnett played 27% more than Duncan. That's like comparing per 36 numbers for a 30 mpg and 38 mpg player. Duncan should be consensus #2 but this is Garnett's year.

To me 'impactful' and 'better' are the same thing. Duncan missing a few RS games is not enough to put him behind the clearly inferior player. I don't care if plus minus like KG more, Duncan and Shaq were both better players this year.

Duncan loses to the Lakers in 6 by an average of 4-points: yeah he lost, team was too bad
KG loses to the Lakers in 6 by an average of 2 points despite his 2nd player being injured: they never had a chance to win, kg worse

One of these two's teams went winless without them in multiple surrounding years. And it's not the one you have at 1.

[One_and_Done]

Duncan's support cast played worse.

[OhayoKD]

Duncan's support cast played worse.

teammates of worse passer and help defender "played worse". I've heard this one before.

[lessthanjake]

Since the title was won by an ensemble cast, this is a year where someone can and will win with a case that wouldn’t win in most other years. Shaq and Kobe made the finals but both of them had down years individually and missed a bunch of regular season games. Kobe was also pretty rough in the finals. Duncan missed 13 regular season games and lost in the second round of the playoffs while not playing particularly great. Dirk was already a great player in this era. But this season was a down year for him both in terms of individual statistical production and in terms of the Mavs’ team success—they only won 52 games and they lost in the first round. Dirk played pretty well in that loss, but he definitely doesn’t have a very strong case overall. Meanwhile, I think it’s possible to fit someone from the Pistons on a ballot (perhaps Ben Wallace or Chauncey Billups), but no individual player on that team was anywhere near the best player in the NBA, so I don’t think it’s plausible to put any of them at #1.

That leaves Garnett. Garnett was probably the best player in the regular season, and got a 58-win season out of a team that wasn’t overly talented. He did not manage to make the Finals with that team. However, while I do think that the playoffs showed a bit of his offensive limitations, he was pretty good in the playoffs overall IMO. It’s not a year that would deserve POY in the vast majority of other years, but I think this year it does. I think the top 3 probably is rounded out by Shaq and Duncan in some order. Duncan was better than Shaq in the regular season IMO, but Shaq had a deeper playoff run and outplayed Duncan in their series against each other and was also good in the Finals loss, so I think the playoffs definitely go in Shaq’s favor.

[One_and_Done]

I think it's debatable that Shaq outplayed Duncan when you look at the context. On offense Duncan was often swarmed by Malone and Shaq. The plan was that the Spurs shooters would hit open shots, but they were bricking it up. That meant Duncan often had to go 1 on 2 inside, because between bad shooters and an invisible Rasho he had no choice. On the other end Rasho was basically useless against Shaq, and Duncan had to anchor the entire Spurs defense. Even if you think Shaq was the better offensive player, he definitely wasn't having the defensive impact Duncan was.

Then there's the fact Duncan was a dubious shot away from likely winning the series. If Fisher's BS shot doesn't count, and the Spurs win, would anyone still think Shaq outplayed Duncan.

[AEnigma]

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Ben Wallace
2. Kevin Garnett
3. Tim Duncan

I generally have Ben and Duncan split this 2002-07 period, and my first point of distinction tends to be playing time. This year… not only does Ben win the title in dominant defensive fashion, but he also plays 500 more minutes than Duncan does… I think you could swing a different way if you feel there is a definite gap in defensive quality, but I tend to assess these two as extremely comparable year to year based on my interpretation of the various defensive impact metrics available to us (with both being consistently marked in the top three from 2003-06). I think Ben is a little more versatile, so I tend to give him extra marks in a “defensive peaks” comparison, but ultimately that has little to do with my intent to vote Ben as the DPoY from 2004-06.

Listing Garnett above Duncan for having a more accomplished season and playing enough extra minutes (~700) that I feel it makes up for the mild defensive advantage Duncan had per game/possession.

Honourable mentions to Jermaine O’Neal, Yao Ming, and Andrei Kirilenko.

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Steve Nash
3. Kevin Garnett

Playing Dirk at centre is a moderate gimmick and produces worse results than the prior season, but offensive value is offensive value. For what was and is by far the best regular season offence in league history, no qualms listing two players from the same team atop of the ballot… and it helps their case that both will be on my ballot the next two years when they are on different teams. Taking Dirk above Nash because of the positional change and because he performs better against the Kings (in contrast to 2002).

Garnett beats out Peja here for the stark playoff disparity between the two. Considered Shaq as well but again missed time holds him back. Michael Redd not a bad mention either, although would not have him top three.

Player of the Year

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Shaquille O’Neal
3. Tim Duncan
4. Ben Wallace
5. Dirk Nowitzki Andrei Kirilenko

Agree that Garnett was better than Duncan across the board this season, with the only pointed counterarguments offered being ephemera about how, despite all data to the contrary, the Spurs were secretly a worse cast than the Wolves, and how Duncan — with substantial support from Tony Parker — beat up on a Grizzlies team much worse than the Kings team Garnett vanquished to reach the conference finals. And to be clear, Duncan was very much not a “dubious shot” away from winning the series against the Lakers: he was a “dubious shot” away from going to a Game 7, and had he not played so atrociously in Games 3 and 6, they might not have even needed that miracle shot to fail. Shaq above Duncan because unlike in 1998 or 2002, I do not think Duncan performed well enough in the postseason to the degree necessary to overlook how Shaq had the deeper playoff run and beat him head-to-head (in what was at best for Duncan a relative draw individually). I also continue to see Shaq as the definite top player on the Lakers.

I think Rasheed may have been the “best” player on the Pistons this year, but not by much, and Ben is the one I see as the team’s primary player by leading the defence, handling Shaq, and present all year round. Billups’ excellent Finals is not enough to overwrite that the Wallaces drove the team or that Rip was arguably just as important offensively.

LA Bird put together a great case for Kirilenko, and Dirk underperforming while losing to the team which lost to the team which lost to the team which lost in the Finals is not a particularly strong advantage. I have previously been sympathetic to players who are in effect punished for their conference…

He won enough games on his own to have made the postseason in the eastern conference, which is reasoning I have identified as a positive offsetting factor for 1955 Johnston, 1961/68/69 Oscar, and 1976 Kareem, and which I will use in part to back 2005 Garnett.

… and while I would still pick Dirk “in a vacuum” over Kirilenko — a disadvantage for Kirilenko relative to all those other exceptions — I will acknowledge Kirilenko’s 42-36 miracle season was probably more “laudable” even with the Jazz missing the playoffs by 1.5 games.

[70sFan]

It's true that Duncan came close to beating the Lakers. It's also true that he didn't have much help. At the same time though, he played clearly below his 1999-03 standards against LA. Had Duncan played on his peak level, he probably wouldn't have needed the miracle shots to beat the Lakers.

I also don't see much of a case for Shaq over either Duncan or KG for that season to be honest.

[Lebronnygoat]

I know Duncan missed some games, and his support cast was now much better compared to 01-03, but it still wasn’t that good. In games Duncan played the Spurs were 51-18 (a 61 win pace). In games he missed they were 6-7.

Spurs' +2.8 net rating with Duncan off the court was pretty good, especially in comparison to the Wolves' -10.9 without Garnett. For WOWY, Parker also missed 3 of those games so it wasn't just Duncan's absence alone and the Spurs performed quite well by SRS (+5.3) when you control for that. Maybe you'll say W/L is what matters and SRS is irrelevant but I don't consider single possession losses to the likes of full health Lakers and Mavs without both Duncan and Parker an indictment of the Spurs supporting cast.

I dock Duncan and Shaq a little for playing fewer games than KG, but ultimately they were just better and more impactful players so I have to go with them.

You can label other players as "better" if you want but to say they were "more impactful" than KG this year is a hard sell when he indisputably smoked the league in impact stats.

Duncan in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/3/14 53.4%
Garnett in the ‘04 Regular Season-
25/5/14 54.7%

I don’t see where people say KG unanimously was the best player, or obviously. There’s no definitive choice here, but I think Duncan has the best argument.

Garnett is ahead in every single stat there even if it's not evident because of rounding. And you are also quoting per possession numbers in a year where Garnett played 27% more than Duncan. That's like comparing per 36 numbers for a 30 mpg and 38 mpg player. Duncan should be consensus #2 but this is Garnett's year.

Wolves are -11? Based on what? The only teams the Spurs beat above .500 were the Heat (without their 2nd/3rd best player, Dwayne Wade), Dallas and Denver. The Heat in 2004 are 8-13 (-2.8) without Wade, so, I’m only moved by Dallas and Denver. Just TWO games. I think given a 11 game sample, a bad team can defeat a barely over .500 team once or twice (Dallas is an elite team tbf). Again, I don’t see why KG’s squad is somehow so much worse. KG is literally nearly identical with Duncan barring assists and I’d argue Duncan is a better or same level of a playmaker. Defense is Duncan. Scoring would be Duncan too. That Memphis series is also a series KG never had. The regular season also shows Duncan being the better player.

[Djoker]

Honestly Shaq's stats in the Finals overstate his impact IMO. He got killed on the boards by Ben Wallace and was quite poor on defense. And looking at it game-by-game, he had two dominant outings (Game 1 and Game 4) and was subpar in the other three. The rest of his RS and PS were also very much unimpressive and arguably not even ballot worthy. Despite a total **** show in the Finals, I see Kobe as better than Shaq and he will be higher on my ballot.

And if anyone can take this POY from KG, it's Duncan. I'll have KG #1 Duncan #2 in all likelihood.