2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 2)

[_NoMas]

Jokic has the raws stats, advanced stats are close but are slightly in favor of SGA. Better record SGA, but SGA has a better team.
I
I think SGA is in the lead, But if Jokic can either get Denver to a top 2 seed in the West OR a TOP 5 record in the league. He should win it. Very simple.

It’s strange that seeding and not actual record plays such an important role. If Denver ends up the 2 seed but 15 games back from OKC, it should be SGA no question. Hypothetically, why would we value a 50 win 2 seed whose 15 games back from the one seed more than say, a 55 win 4 seed whose 5 games back from the one seed?

Because the MVP isn't the best player on the best team award, it is usually the best player on a contending team award. Before Westbrook, the MVP award was usually awarded to the best player was at least a 2 seed in their conference. MVP and all-star voting is similar in that winning teams get rewarded. Winning isn't what sets up you a part, but is rather a prerequisite to winning. If Jokic is playing better than SGA, while getting a top 2 seed he would fulfill the criteria.

My point was more that I disagree with it. I think record should be more important then seeding. That said, the MVP is usually from the best team. Taking your example of pre Westbrook, in the 32 years previous to 2017, 25 winners came from the one seed.

[MoneyTalks41890]

FWIW advanced stats comparison SGA vs Jokic

Jokic leads in
-DPM
-New EPM
-BPM
-VORP
-XRAPM
-3 Year RAPM

SGA Leads in
-Old EPM
-EPM WAR
-LEBRON
-LEBRON WAR

Guess I’m not familiar with old and new EPM.

Jokic leads expected, SGA leads actual here:

https://www.dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

New EPM=Expected (Takes into account information from prior seasons. Tries to be Predictive)
Old EPM=Actual (Only takes into account information from the current season)

Thanks. I try to dabble in some of these stats but don't know them as well as some of the folks around here. So genuine question, why would the new EPM be better? And do the two converge at the end of the season? Or does New EPM continue to try to be predictive of the future?

[Special_Puppy]

Guess I’m not familiar with old and new EPM.

Jokic leads expected, SGA leads actual here:

https://www.dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

New EPM=Expected (Takes into account information from prior seasons. Tries to be Predictive)
Old EPM=Actual (Only takes into account information from the current season)

Thanks. I try to dabble in some of these stats but don't know them as well as some of the folks around here. So genuine question, why would the new EPM be better? And do the two converge at the end of the season? Or does New EPM continue to try to be predictive of the future?

There is just a lot of noise to sift through in single season stats. Using information from the prior years probably helps somewhat. I'd probably use both New and Old EPM

[TorontoBarneys]

Vorpic should win it again. The man is playing unreal basketball.

[AleksandarN]

Read on Twitter

[Johnny Firpo]

Saying SGA has a better supporting cast than Tatum is one of the most absurd things I’ve ever seen

Saying this is one of the most absurd things you've seen here is one of the most absurd things I've seen here. Especially since that is not at all what I wrote, if you re-read it again. But let's pretend for a moment that I wrote that (I did not).

Chet, Hartenstein and Jalen Williams are all higher in EPM than any of the Celtics players not named Tatum. I've rate Hartenstein as a top 50 player, has been very high on him for years. I rate Porzingis also as a top 50 player, maybe around 42-44. I would put Hartenstein somewhere there too.

OKC is UNQUESTIONABLY much deeper. Like it isn't even close when it comes to depth. Btw, I'm not saying any of this as an argument against Shai, not sure how you guys got that impression. I genuinely think it's the best supporting cast in the league, and as I said, only the Celtics have an argument.

I think they (OKC) are going to win it all this year. And it's only gonna get worse for the league, because Chet and Williams only going to get better, and then they have tons of 1sts too and even young prospects like Wallace and Topic, so they can pretty much trade for a superstar if they want to (and if someone of that caliber is going to become available).

[MMyhre]

FWIW advanced stats comparison SGA vs Jokic

Jokic leads in
-DPM
-New EPM
-BPM
-VORP
-XRAPM
-3 Year RAPM

SGA Leads in
-Old EPM
-EPM WAR
-LEBRON
-LEBRON WAR

Guess I’m not familiar with old and new EPM.

Jokic leads expected, SGA leads actual here:

https://www.dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

Chet Holmgren + 3 DEPM, Hartenstein + 3,4... now combined...? This defense is going to be naaasty.

[kazyv]

Saying SGA has a better supporting cast than Tatum is one of the most absurd things I’ve ever seen

Saying this is one of the most absurd things you've seen here is one of the most absurd things I've seen here. Especially since that is not at all what I wrote, if you re-read it again. But let's pretend for a moment that I wrote that (I did not).

Chet, Hartenstein and Jalen Williams are all higher in EPM than any of the Celtics players not named Tatum. I've rate Hartenstein as a top 50 player, has been very high on him for years. I rate Porzingis also as a top 50 player, maybe around 42-44. I would put Hartenstein somewhere there too.

OKC is UNQUESTIONABLY much deeper. Like it isn't even close when it comes to depth. Btw, I'm not saying any of this as an argument against Shai, not sure how you guys got that impression. I genuinely think it's the best supporting cast in the league, and as I said, only the Celtics have an argument.

I think they (OKC) are going to win it all this year. And it's only gonna get worse for the league, because Chet and Williams only going to get better, and then they have tons of 1sts too and even young prospects like Wallace and Topic, so they can pretty much trade for a superstar if they want to (and if someone of that caliber is going to become available).

well, you are posting it in the MVP thread, so what are you saying it for exactly?

but going back to the topic, for the season, shai is at over 1200+ minutes while hartestein played 600 minutes so far and chet 250. also, williams has 21/6/5 on .56 TS, not exactly out of this world production. i really don't see this overwhelming support cast that you're suggesting

[srhcan]

Bbref top five shows how much of a two-man race this is:

Jokic: 47%
SGA: 37.7%
Tatum: 4%
Towns: 4%
Antetokounmpo: 2.2%

dont agree; Giannis is well ahead of likes of Tatum and Towns; he is in the league of Jokic and SGA. Also SGA is leading instead of Jokic.

[srhcan]

FWIW advanced stats comparison SGA vs Jokic

Jokic leads in
-DPM
-New EPM
-BPM
-VORP
-XRAPM
-3 Year RAPM

SGA Leads in
-Old EPM
-EPM WAR
-LEBRON
-LEBRON WAR

Guess I’m not familiar with old and new EPM.

Jokic leads expected, SGA leads actual here:

https://www.dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

New EPM=Expected (Takes into account information from prior seasons. Tries to be Predictive)
Old EPM=Actual (Only takes into account information from the current season)

so we should not be looking at New EPM at all when deciding MVP for the current season,

[Special_Puppy]

Guess I’m not familiar with old and new EPM.

Jokic leads expected, SGA leads actual here:

https://www.dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

New EPM=Expected (Takes into account information from prior seasons. Tries to be Predictive)
Old EPM=Actual (Only takes into account information from the current season)

so we should not be looking at New EPM at all when deciding MVP for the current season,

No? There’s a lot of noise in single season metrics that you can use information from prior seasons to help sift through

[magee]

Don’t we have a mvp thread

My bad on that. Thanks for adding it into the proper thread.

[MaliBrah]

Guess I’m not familiar with old and new EPM.

Jokic leads expected, SGA leads actual here:

https://www.dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

New EPM=Expected (Takes into account information from prior seasons. Tries to be Predictive)
Old EPM=Actual (Only takes into account information from the current season)

Thanks. I try to dabble in some of these stats but don't know them as well as some of the folks around here. So genuine question, why would the new EPM be better? And do the two converge at the end of the season? Or does New EPM continue to try to be predictive of the future?

They created new (expected) EPM because Jokic didn't lead it last year and was behind Shai and Embiid. He isn't ahead in actual EPM again(although its close) so he's ahead in the new and special one created for him to lead it

[Special_Puppy]

New EPM=Expected (Takes into account information from prior seasons. Tries to be Predictive)
Old EPM=Actual (Only takes into account information from the current season)

Thanks. I try to dabble in some of these stats but don't know them as well as some of the folks around here. So genuine question, why would the new EPM be better? And do the two converge at the end of the season? Or does New EPM continue to try to be predictive of the future?

They created new (expected) EPM because Jokic didn't lead it last year and was behind Shai and Embiid. He isn't ahead in actual EPM again(although its close) so he's ahead in the new and special one created for him to lead it

I can't tell if you actually believe this or if you are just trolling

[QPR]

Bbref top five shows how much of a two-man race this is:

Jokic: 47%
SGA: 37.7%
Tatum: 4%
Towns: 4%
Antetokounmpo: 2.2%

dont agree; Giannis is well ahead of likes of Tatum and Towns; he is in the league of Jokic and SGA. Also SGA is leading instead of Jokic.

Is he though? The Bucks have come back to earth again after taking advantage of a very easy stretch of games. His counting stats are great but Milwaukee is back to being a .500 team.

[CobraCommander]

Saying SGA has a better supporting cast than Tatum is one of the most absurd things I’ve ever seen

It can’t be a knock that your GM is good at his job -

Sga and Tatum BOTH make their teams better and their GMs make it possible for these guys to win.:.. it remains to be seen if SGA can close

[Exp0sed]

wrong thread, delete plz

[CobraCommander]

Bbref top five shows how much of a two-man race this is:

Jokic: 47%
SGA: 37.7%
Tatum: 4%
Towns: 4%
Antetokounmpo: 2.2%

dont agree; Giannis is well ahead of likes of Tatum and Towns; he is in the league of Jokic and SGA. Also SGA is leading instead of Jokic.

Is he though? The Bucks have come back to earth again after taking advantage of a very easy stretch of games. His counting stats are great but Milwaukee is back to being a .500 team.

m
So do we can’t about wins? Cause if so it’s SGA and Tatum

But if we care about individual performance it’s Jokic and Giannis…

I guess if it’s both wins and stats is SGA and has been since the beginning with Tatum in second with Jokic and Giannis following up .


I say that cause Tatum and SgA stats both pretty good with sga being better

[Exp0sed]

dont agree; Giannis is well ahead of likes of Tatum and Towns; he is in the league of Jokic and SGA. Also SGA is leading instead of Jokic.

Is he though? The Bucks have come back to earth again after taking advantage of a very easy stretch of games. His counting stats are great but Milwaukee is back to being a .500 team.

m
So do we can’t about wins? Cause if so it’s SGA and Tatum

But if we care about individual performance it’s Jokic and Giannis…

I guess if it’s both wins and stats is SGA and has been since the beginning with Tatum in second with Jokic and Giannis following up .


I say that cause Tatum and SgA stats both pretty good with sga being better

difference between Giannis and Jokic this season is that the Bucks aren't that much better with Giannis than without him while the Nuggets are a polar opposite. the only argument for Jokic rn over SGA is the fact that his team is the worst in the league when he's off the floor and one of the best when he's on, so essentially not rewarding him with another MVP would basically be punishing him for what his teammates do when he's on the bench

this is a a pretty rare phenomenon and it's ailed the Nuggets consistently. teams that are good enough to win plenty of games and have real superstars don't tend to fall completely apart when said superstar is on the floor

Imagine having Murray as your supposed 2nd best player on a max contract, averging 19\16\4 on putrid 54 TS% while playing no defense and across the aisle from you, having a guy like J-Dub, earning considerably less money and averging 21\5\6 on 56 TS% while guarding the opponent's best player almost every night and doing it at an elite level too

with all the talk of Chet, AG has missed 17/34 games for the Nuggets this season and he's the one usually filling that role for the Nuggets (matching up with the opponent's best player)

the gap between rosters is pretty huge, imagine just switching Murray and J-Dub lol..Nuggets win 65+ games easily

historically, it didn't really matter. times and criterias change and that's a good thing but that would be the only argument for Jokic rn and while it's techincally very true and makes alot of sense, it's still a pretty moot argument in practical terms, especially considering the high degree of voter fatigue involved

[CobraCommander]

Is he though? The Bucks have come back to earth again after taking advantage of a very easy stretch of games. His counting stats are great but Milwaukee is back to being a .500 team.

m
So do we can’t about wins? Cause if so it’s SGA and Tatum

But if we care about individual performance it’s Jokic and Giannis…

I guess if it’s both wins and stats is SGA and has been since the beginning with Tatum in second with Jokic and Giannis following up .


I say that cause Tatum and SgA stats both pretty good with sga being better

difference between Giannis and Jokic this season is that the Bucks aren't that much better with Giannis that without him while the Nuggets are a polar opposite. the only argument for Jokic rn over SGA is the fact that his team is the worst in the league when he's off the floor and one of the best when he's on, so essentially not rewarding him with another MVP would basically be punishing him for what his teammates do when he's on the bench

this is a a pretty rare phenomenon and it's ailed the Nuggets consistently. teams that are good enough to win plenty of games and have real superstars don't tend to fall completely apart when said superstar is on the floow

Imagine having Murray as your supposed 2nd best player on a max contract, averging 19\16\4 on putrid 54 TS% while playing no defense and across the aisle from you, having a guy like J-Dub, earning considerably less money and averging 21\5\6 on 56 TS% while guarding the opponent's best player almost every night and doing it at an elite level too

with all the talk of Chet, AG has missed 17/34 games for the Nuggets this season and he's the one usually filling that role for the Nuggets (matching up with the opponent's best player)

the gap between rosters is pretty huge, imagine just switching Murray and J-Dub lol..Nuggets win 65+ games easily

historically, it didn't really matter. times and criterias chance and that's a good thing but that would be the only argument for Jokic rn and while it's techincally very true and makes alot of sense, it's still a pretty moot argument in practical terms, especially considering the high degree of voter fatigue involved

It’s hard to disagree with you here/. So I won’t/

I’ll just say Tatum is not getting enough respect - when everyone healthy he still winning rings and that matters -

Maybe not the mvp but damn