Ace Bailey

[SeattleJazzFan]

sometimes we just overthink things. yes, he has some warts, but he's one of the youngest dudes in the class and he's averaging 20 and 8.

i wish it were a more efficient 20 ppg, but as some have mentioned in this thread, the fact that he cares and is legitimately good defensively is a feather in his cap. i think the fact that he's a plus rebounder for his position matters as well.

[CptCrunch]

I get the argument that (IF) Ace is a plus sized shooter, with a great shot, pro style offense and a plus defender and a plus athelete, should be a high pick.

My issue is the IF part as I cannot forsee him plus shooter in the league. His shot to me is more a mirage than great shooting for NBA standards as his 3pt and ft% are both fairly questionable. He would need to shoot the lights out during combines to go high, otherwise you are left with a decent shooter with every analytical red flag in the book while hoping for a vision of some ghostly specter of a diet Devin Burant.

[The-Power]

I don't think he has issues creating for himself, he is averaging 20 ppg. Just scored 39 basically on all self created offense.

He mostly gets passed the ball and shoots. Sure, he then also often holds the ball a while before rising up or taking a dribble or two before rising up. He has a high release point in his shot and a happy trigger but that is not what I mean when I talk about someone's ability to self-create. When he creates, it's usually jumpers (often 2s) over someone. That's not creating easy shots (which is what I care about because every single player can create shots as long as you don't care about shot quality or efficiency).

Yes, his playmaking for others isn't special but again at age 18 there is a lot of time for him to improve into a better playmaker.

Every prospect has a lot of time to improve all kinds of things. It still factors into the evaluation and right now, Bailey must be among the worst playmakers and passers for a high-usage offensive player that come to mind. If we expect him to end up being someone who can consistently create high-efficiency shots for others then why should we not expect every other prospect to turn their biggest weakness into a strength as well? Well, the obvious answer is that such things virtually never happen – and that's precisely why we must refrain from projecting the players we happen to like to be outliers in their development.

All the new age basketball haters, this is the perfect basketball prospect that is going to iso from 15 ft and hit a bunch of tough middies in the NBA. That is the player everyone claims can save basketball, but when those players come around all we do is hate on them.

Don't conflate different groups to make a point. When I do evaluate prospects I do so based on who I believe is going to be most impactful in the NBA. I'm not someone who believes that basketball needs saving, and certainly not by players replacing higher efficiency shots with tough midrange jumpers. Unless you can back it up that the people who hate the current NBA and love tough midrange jumpers are the ones who also ‘hate on*’ Bailey, it's best to not go down this line of argumentation. It's just not productive and a red herring.

*I also reject the ‘hate on’ him premise; what I and (most) others have done in this thread is point out his limitations and express skepticism about certain aspects of his game. That's not hating, that's just normal discourse about prospects. Just because you don't agree and you like the player (or players of his mold) better does not mean those who are less enthused are hating. Also, I still have him as a clear lottery prospect. There are plenty of players that I really like and prop up on this board who I rank lower than him. So it's not at all the case that I don't recognize the good things he brings to the table.

[tontoz]

Tonight was rough, 3-16 from the field, 2-6 from the line. His struggles from the line are really strange for a guy who makes so many tough jumpers.

[Benjammin]

Yeah, that was pretty ugly. Someone has to go third in the draft so for the lottery teams at the top hopefully there'll be some good options at least 3-5.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[clyde21]

i'm honestly not sure what's up for deliberation here, the archetype is pretty obvious, it's either you're willing to take the risk on the archetype at #3 or #5 or #7 or you're not. median outcome is likely outcome, which is some version of Andrew Wiggins. other than that it's an upside play.

the big wildcard is that terrible FT%, b/c even Wiggy was a mid 70s guy coming out. top 5 would probably be too rich for me unless that FT% hits the 70s, but after that I would completely understand if a GM wants to make the upside play.

[CptCrunch]

Ace Bailey's median outcome is not a 18.3 ppg career third option player.

I would draft Andrew Wiggins first against most years, possibly even this year. Wiggins failed due to his lack of brains and passion for the game.

(I was one of the original Wiggins doubters calling him trash when Minny fans cherished him as a 2nd year superstar. The same dynamics are playing out wiht Cade 'Trash' Cunningham right now)

[clyde21]

as a 3rd option in GS Wiggins is a 16.5 ppg player, the idea that that's not a median outcome for a talent like Ace is just nonsense sorry. scoring 16 in today's NBA is not hard at all.

hell Kuminga is scoring 18ppg right now and he has a lot of the same flaws Ace has. GG Jackson as a rookie dropped 15 per.

[HadAnEffectHere]

as a 3rd option in GS Wiggins is a 16.5 ppg player, the idea that that's not a median outcome for a talent like Ace is just nonsense sorry. scoring 16 in today's NBA is not hard at all.

hell Kuminga is scoring 18ppg right now and he has a lot of the same flaws Ace has. GG Jackson as a rookie dropped 15 per.

It's just not clear Ace is that talented. He's uncoordinated with a really slow first step, a bad handle, and a terrible feel for the game.

[tontoz]

On a positive note over the last 3 games he has only 1 turnover.

But yeah it is hard to get a read on him. I have him at 6. Hoping the Wizards pick someone else.

[CptCrunch]

as a 3rd option in GS Wiggins is a 16.5 ppg player, the idea that that's not a median outcome for a talent like Ace is just nonsense sorry. scoring 16 in today's NBA is not hard at all.

hell Kuminga is scoring 18ppg right now and he has a lot of the same flaws Ace has. GG Jackson as a rookie dropped 15 per.

Well there are only 66 players who are scoring above 16 ppg (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_per_game.html#per_game_stats::pts_per_g). Add in defensive stars, take out some bad shot chuckers. That's roughly a top 2 player on every team.

There are 515 players in the NBA 'pool' right now who have played at least one minute (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_totals.html#totals_stats::pts), on one of the 30 rosters + floating around G-league/Europe as free agents call-ups. So we are talking about 66/515 or top 13% of all NBA players. Yes, it is pretty damn hard getting a 16 ppg scorer. If you could just target 3rd options every draft given 'it is not hard at all' for your prospect to become one; every damn team would be 11 deep at this point.

Hypothetically if Ace's accurate median outcome is a 16 ppg average defender third option; he is easily the #3 pick locked because I don't think anyone else's median outcome is that high aside from the two everyone agrees is a tier above in Flagg and Harper. In my assessment, his median outcome is no where near that level.

[clyde21]

as a 3rd option in GS Wiggins is a 16.5 ppg player, the idea that that's not a median outcome for a talent like Ace is just nonsense sorry. scoring 16 in today's NBA is not hard at all.

hell Kuminga is scoring 18ppg right now and he has a lot of the same flaws Ace has. GG Jackson as a rookie dropped 15 per.

Well there are only 66 players who are scoring above 16 ppg (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_per_game.html#per_game_stats::pts_per_g). Add in defensive stars, take out some bad shot chuckers. That's roughly a top 2 player on every team.

There are 515 players in the NBA 'pool' right now who have played at least one minute (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_totals.html#totals_stats::pts), on one of the 30 rosters + floating around G-league/Europe as free agents call-ups. So we are talking about 66/515 or top 13% of all NBA players. Yes, it is pretty damn hard getting a 16 ppg scorer. If you could just target 3rd options every draft given 'it is not hard at all' for your prospect to become one; every damn team would be 11 deep at this point.

Hypothetically if Ace's accurate median outcome is a 16 ppg average defender third option; he is easily the #3 pick locked because I don't think anyone else's median outcome is that high aside from the two everyone agrees is a tier above in Flagg and Harper. In my assessment, his median outcome is no where near that level.

i'm not really sure what your contention here is at this point. again, GG Jackson almost an identical archetype but worse prospect was able to score 15ppg as a rookie. the idea that Ace's median outlook being a 16ppg scorer w/ questionable impact and efficiency is not a huge undertaking. even OG, with infinitely less offensive skill than Ace can get 16ppg lol.

[EvanZ]

Memphis is really rolling. One has to question whether GG will even get back in their rotation.

[earthtone]

as a 3rd option in GS Wiggins is a 16.5 ppg player, the idea that that's not a median outcome for a talent like Ace is just nonsense sorry. scoring 16 in today's NBA is not hard at all.

hell Kuminga is scoring 18ppg right now and he has a lot of the same flaws Ace has. GG Jackson as a rookie dropped 15 per.

Well there are only 66 players who are scoring above 16 ppg (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_per_game.html#per_game_stats::pts_per_g). Add in defensive stars, take out some bad shot chuckers. That's roughly a top 2 player on every team.

There are 515 players in the NBA 'pool' right now who have played at least one minute (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_totals.html#totals_stats::pts), on one of the 30 rosters + floating around G-league/Europe as free agents call-ups. So we are talking about 66/515 or top 13% of all NBA players. Yes, it is pretty damn hard getting a 16 ppg scorer. If you could just target 3rd options every draft given 'it is not hard at all' for your prospect to become one; every damn team would be 11 deep at this point.

Hypothetically if Ace's accurate median outcome is a 16 ppg average defender third option; he is easily the #3 pick locked because I don't think anyone else's median outcome is that high aside from the two everyone agrees is a tier above in Flagg and Harper. In my assessment, his median outcome is no where near that level.

i'm not really sure what your contention here is at this point. again, GG Jackson almost an identical archetype but worse prospect was able to score 15ppg as a rookie. the idea that Ace's median outlook being a 16ppg scorer w/ questionable impact and efficiency is not a huge undertaking. even OG, with infinitely less offensive skill than Ace can get 16ppg lol.

Every single draft from 2010-2020 had at least one pick in the Top 5 average under 16ppg.

Guys bust all the time, and while Ace has incredibly high potential, he also has very high bust potential. 16ppg as a median outcome is pretty fair (if not generous), and takes into account his range of outcomes

[clyde21]

Well there are only 66 players who are scoring above 16 ppg (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_per_game.html#per_game_stats::pts_per_g). Add in defensive stars, take out some bad shot chuckers. That's roughly a top 2 player on every team.

There are 515 players in the NBA 'pool' right now who have played at least one minute (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_totals.html#totals_stats::pts), on one of the 30 rosters + floating around G-league/Europe as free agents call-ups. So we are talking about 66/515 or top 13% of all NBA players. Yes, it is pretty damn hard getting a 16 ppg scorer. If you could just target 3rd options every draft given 'it is not hard at all' for your prospect to become one; every damn team would be 11 deep at this point.

Hypothetically if Ace's accurate median outcome is a 16 ppg average defender third option; he is easily the #3 pick locked because I don't think anyone else's median outcome is that high aside from the two everyone agrees is a tier above in Flagg and Harper. In my assessment, his median outcome is no where near that level.

i'm not really sure what your contention here is at this point. again, GG Jackson almost an identical archetype but worse prospect was able to score 15ppg as a rookie. the idea that Ace's median outlook being a 16ppg scorer w/ questionable impact and efficiency is not a huge undertaking. even OG, with infinitely less offensive skill than Ace can get 16ppg lol.

Every single draft from 2010-2020 had at least one pick in the Top 5 average under 16ppg.

Guys bust all the time, and while Ace has incredibly high potential, he also has very high bust potential. 16ppg as a median outcome is pretty fair (if not generous), and takes into account his range of outcomes

not sure if you're agreeing or disagreeing with me here

[The-Power]

I really don't think we should get held up talking about PPG. A lot of that is a result of minutes and roster construction. I have no doubts that if Bailey plays 32+ MPG in the NBA that he'll get to 16+ PPG. But that's whatever. A player like him is always going to shoot when there's an opportunity, so he'll naturally get a bunch of shots up when he's on the floor. What I care about is whether coaches (of good teams) believe he's good enough to warrant those minutes.

I do think he has a good chance to someone who plays starter minutes because he has size, can defend, can shoot and make some athletic plays off the ball. Limit his decision-making opportunities and rein his shot hunting in a bit and he can start for many teams. I just think his lack of BBIQ and playmaking chops in addition to ball handling limitations are likely to put a ceiling on him as a maaaaybe the 3rd best player on a good team (I think MPJ is a decent natural comparison, Jabari Smith Jr. could be another – I don't really see Wiggins in him). That's a lottery pick but I'd take a bunch of other players ahead of him.

[tontoz]

Ace just dropped 20/10 with 3 blocks and only one turnover. He was 5-5 from the foul line
But most importantly he had ...




Wait for it .....







2 assists

[SeattleJazzFan]

in regard to bailey's defense. at the beginning of the season, i thought he actually cares defensively, not that good but he tries hard.

by december, i thought he's legitimately good defensively, mostly because he plays so hard and cares on that end.

now, when i watch Bailey, i see one of the best freshmen wing defenders i've seen in the last 10 years. he plays extremely hard, has a high defensive bball iq/knows where to be in terms of help defense, moves his feet, etc. and he's an excellent defensive rebounder. it's kinda crazy how good he is on that end for a guy who was supposed to be all scoring.

efficiency will always be the elephant in the room for him in terms of reaching his ultra high ceiling, but with the way he defends, rebounds and the effort he plays with, his floor is also pretty high.

[jasonxxx102]

I don't watch NCAA games because there is very little to translate to the NBA but Bailey has some of the worst shot selection I have ever seen. He does not have an NBA translatable shot chart. So many contested shots in college does not bode well for the next level where every player is 10x the average defender he's facing now.

FT% is a really good indicator of shooting talent and it's not looking great.

I haven't watched enough to judge him defensively but he better be an elite defender if he wants to make an impact in the NBA because his offensive package isn't NBA good.

He reminds me of Kevin Knox who was a way better shooter and shot creator. Knox was another tough shot maker in college that never translated

[God Squad]

Ace just dropped 20/10 with 3 blocks and only one turnover. He was 5-5 from the foul line
But most importantly he had ...




Wait for it .....







2 assists

It was his best game of the season IMO. I don't care that he scored 39 against Indiana. He needed to start hitting his free throws and start moving the ball.