Retro Player of the Year 2003-04 UPDATE — Kevin Garnett

[Lebronnygoat]

Ah you’re looking at on offs. Again, heavily situational statistics.

[OhayoKD]

1. Kevin Garnett

This one should be unanimous. The regular-season is pretty obvious. Primary paint-protector, most-involved perimeter defender, primary creator, secondary ball-handler, primary rebound grabber and generator, and leading scorer for a +5.9 SRS, 58-win team. 2nd in wins behind the 61-win Pacers. 2nd in SRS behind the +7.51 Spurs: the first team of Duncan's career featuring a normal minute's distribution (Duncan averaged about 2 more than anyone else in the rs and playoffs), which incidentally did pretty okay without him over 29 games in 03-04 and 04-05 (6-7, +1.2 net). Here's how the Wolves fared without KG:

Spoiler:

1995(82 games) -> 22-wins, -8.22 SRS without KG(with 80 games(and 43 starts) of 19 yo KG in 96, they are 26-win and -5.16)
1997(5 games) -> 0-5 and -18 net without KG(Over 77 games with 20 year old KG(all starts), they are -0.5 net and 42-35 with)
1999(3 games) -> 1-2, -3 net without KG(24-23, +0.6 net with)
2006(6 games) -> 2-4, -9 net (26-31, -1.6 net with)
2007(6 games) -> 0-6, -19.9 net (32-44, -2.7 net with)

For the first and only time in Minnesota KG has a legitimate #2 in Sam Cassell:

Shows value, and offers something critical as a solid primary-ball-handler/secondary creator, and secondary scoring option, but I don't think there's much to suggest he comes close to explaining an otherwise 18-win team playing like a 57-win one.

These samples are pretty small but get supplanted with Garnett having the best non-Lebron RAPM for data-ball, and an incredibly high on/off, and a strong performance in the sorts of all-in-ones biased towards smaller greats, while also being an excellent rim-protector and all-time help defender, much in the mold of a Giannis.

Rightly then, with all evidence pointing to an all-time team-carrier having his best ever year, Garnett was nearly unanimously recognized as the league's top regular-season player leading the 58-win, +5.9 Timberwolves. Surely then with the implication he "didn't stand out individually", he must have fallen off significantly in the postseason?

I'd say: not really

They outscore the 43-win Nuggets by 3.8 while winning in 5 for a PSRS of +5.4.

They beat the 54-win Kings in-spite of being outscored by 1.1 for a PSRS of +4.3 as KG leads both teams in points, rebouds, blocks, steals. is 3rd on both in true shooting, and 2nd on borh in assists, and excellent defensively. A performance punctuated by an all-time game 7.

Then facing a +4.5, 56-win Lakers super team that reached the conference finals by going

+7 psrs{/b]
[b]+11 psrs (against the defending champions/league-srs lead)

The wolves see Cassell hurt for the bulk of the series and...take the Lakers to 6 losing by an average of 2 points a game.

Garnett struggles in the sense that, his efficiency went down being forced to be the primary ball-handler. A role neither Shaq or Duncan were suited for. Still, he handled being "swarmed by Malone and Shaq" better than Duncan did. And, to a degree Duncan didn't come particularly close to, when situation largely took away efficient scoring as an option, KG leaned on the other end of the floor to be the best player in the league:
Game 1, 4th quarter (game was considered over and tracking stopped at 1-minute mark)

Spoiler:

-> 2 great defensive plays
-> 12 good defensive plays
0 breakdowns

2 ocs, 1 good, 1 decent
2-6 scoring
2 turnovers
2 good screens

Outside of perhaps Hakeem without Sampson in 86, it's probably the most impressive defensive stretch I've tracked with high-usage (only concievably matched by hakeem - sampson) and no breakdowns. Accordingly, despite a mediocre offensive performance, the Wolves saw an 11-point swing to bring the game just within reach as Garnett took up being his team's most relied on perimiter defender, help defender, and rim-protector, and excelled.

Garnett was not "good", he was excellent, far outshining the three more lauded bigs (one indirectly) in defeat. Contrary to popular narrative, Garnett is still an all-timer in the playoffs empirically. Whether you sub postseason team results for rs "with", use on/off, use postseason rapm, ect ect. It's a small sample, but unlike Robinson, when he was at his RS best, KG followed up with his playoff best, even as circumstance betrayed him.

That's an easy POY for me.

2. Tim Duncan
3.Kobe Bryant
4. Shaq

Shaq's best argument here is that for once in his prime he did the thing he's supposed to do and scored significantly better than Duncan. But Kobe is better that series and this year, that thing shaq proponents like throwing against his teammate turns against him:

Spoiler:

2004 lakers go 5-3 with Kobe without Shaq and have a +10.1 NRTG
They go 6-4 with Shaq without Kobe with a +.3 NRTG
And are 2-5 without either with a -5.4 NRTG

Kobe then throws any chance of a top 2 finish in the finals, with his off-court mistakes hindering the Lakers regular season.

Duncan is the 2nd most valuble player by all the approaches that say KG is the most. As no one besides KG shines in the postseason. Duncan can stay there.

5. Ben Wallace

Detroit won a championship, swept a superteam, and posted a top 10-ever full-strength rating (ben taylor) on the back of an all-time defense. That defense is anchored by Wallace. From 01-05 Detroit is average without him by record, and outright bad by net. By contrast without Billups they are good: Net, or record:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/detroit-pistons-record-without-chauncey-billups-by-season
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=detroit+pistons+net-rating+without+ben+wallace+by+season

As the most valuable piece on the team that crushed the side that swatted my #1 and #2 while featuring my #3 and #4 on the back of a historic defense he anchored, a ballot spot seems warranted.

OPOY
1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Steve Nash
3. Kevin Garnett

[b]DPOY
1. Ben Wallace
2. Kevin Garnett
3. Tim Duncan

[lessthanjake]

I think it's debatable that Shaq outplayed Duncan when you look at the context. On offense Duncan was often swarmed by Malone and Shaq. The plan was that the Spurs shooters would hit open shots, but they were bricking it up. That meant Duncan often had to go 1 on 2 inside, because between bad shooters and an invisible Rasho he had no choice. On the other end Rasho was basically useless against Shaq, and Duncan had to anchor the entire Spurs defense. Even if you think Shaq was the better offensive player, he definitely wasn't having the defensive impact Duncan was.

Then there's the fact Duncan was a dubious shot away from likely winning the series. If Fisher's BS shot doesn't count, and the Spurs win, would anyone still think Shaq outplayed Duncan.

There’s a lot of caveats to this claim that the Spurs were “a dubious shot away from likely winning the series.” They were a shot away from going up 3-2. Losing a series after going up 3-2 is not uncommon, and the Lakers did win Game 6 even though it was the Spurs who had more urgency in that game (the opposite would’ve been true if it was the Spurs up 3-2). Moreover, the Lakers outscored the Spurs by almost 5 points a game in the series. Overall, they outplayed the Spurs in that series, and that’s really not dependent on the Fisher shot. Nor is the Fisher shot why people (including me) think Shaq outplayed Duncan. Shaq scored more points and did so more efficiently than Duncan and outrebounded Duncan, while playing strong defense. FWIW, the Lakers also absolutely dominated the minutes with both Shaq and Duncan on (+13.77 net rating per 100 possessions for the Lakers). I think it’s a really difficult lift to suggest Shaq didn’t outplay Duncan in that series.

[trelos6]

I know it wasn't his role. He was the DPOY. But I couldn't get Wallace into my top 5 when he scored at -7.5 rTS%. The 10.4 pp75 is fine, just shocking efficiency. 54% at the rim, and horrible everywhere else.

[ceoofkobefans]

2004 is a really weird year, the peak of the deadball era, the league was very slow paced and iso centric. The league had the 2nd lowest ORTG of the 3pt era at 102.9 (7th lowest since ORTG started being officially tracked behind, 74,75,76,77,78 and the lockout year in 99) and is tied for the second lowest Pace since it was officially tracked in 1974 behind 1999 and tied with 1997 at 90.1. It was a very slow inefficient year which we saw impacted on the box scores across the league with the leading scorer being Tracy McGrady at 28 ppg (AI was the only other player to average above 25 ppg with 26.4) and is a year dominated with historic defenders near or at the peak of their powers (Ben Wallace, KG, Tim Duncan, Ron Artest, Jermaine O'Neal, Rasheed Wallace, Jason Kidd, etc). A lot of the guys That are usually the t3-5 level guys have down years and/or are missing a decent amount of time due to injuries which allows for new names to get a shot in the top 5, and this is the rookie season for one of the 3 best draft classes in NBA history that will bring a few new candidates in future years. Now onto the ballot!

POY

1. Kevin Garnett

Kg is a very flawed offensive player and he yet again has a fairly significant PO drop on the offensive end but he is arguably a top 3-5 player on both ends this year in the RS (and arguably the best defender) and leads Minnesota to their best season in franchise history up to this point (and arguably ever as of 2024) after they give him his best supporting cast in 2004 with the additions of Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell. Kg was tied with Kobe for the 3rd highest adjusted scoring rate (26.6 IA PTS/75) and was tied with Peja Stojakovic for 3rd in ppg (24.2) on +3.1% rTS and has the lowest turnover rate of his career at 8.3% with the highest offensive load of his career (42.3) and he has some monstrous impact metrics in the RS. The PO numbers are uninspiring (23.9 IA PTS/75 on -.6 rTS% 5 ast/75 3.8 tov/75 and minny's rORTG goes from a +3 to a -1.2 in the PO). I could see TD at 1 but with the injuries and him also having a rather disappointing PO compared to the RS I think KG can reasonably get 1st here

2. Tim Duncan

3. Dirk Nowitzki

FINALLY Dirk is able to make my ballot. Dirk is getting closer to that peak level and he is the main driver of the mavs offense which had the highest relative offensive rating in NBA History (+9.2) yes he's playing on a Don Nelson team with a offensively stacked roster (Steve Nash Michael Finley Antione Walker and Antawn Jamison are all on this team) but Dirk is the best player on said team and is arguably the best offensive player in the league this year and is fully healthy for pretty much the entire season (only misses 5 games). The Mavs get knocked out in the first round and have a -1.6 rORTG vs the Kings who were a below average DRTG but this was more on the supporting cast than Dirk.

4. Kobe Bryant

Kobe and Shaq are pretty equal again in 2004 with the lakers failed attempt of forming a super team around kobe and shaq by adding 35 year old Gary Payton and 40 year old Karl Malone who misses half of the season anyway and lose their best role player in Robert Horry, yet the Lakers still somehow win 56 games and have a top 10 ORTG DRTG NRTG and SRS in the league despite kobe and Shaq missing 17 and 15 games (lakers go 5-3 with a 10.1 NRTG, 109.2 ORTG/ +6.9 rORTG, 99.2 DRTG, -3.7 rDRTG, when kobe played and shaq sat, and 6-4 with a +.3 NRTG, 103.2 ORTG/ +.3 rORTG, 102.9 DRTG/ +0 rDRTG when shaq played and Kobe sat) and when kobe and shaq both missed games in 04 the lakers were an abysmal 2-5 with a -5.4 NRTG and a -5.1 rORTG (43-14, +5.2 NRTG, +4.3 rORTG -.9 rDRTG when kobe and shaq played in 57 games), and Karl Malone wasn't much help for kobe and shaq (last bit of wowy data i promise) the Lakers went 13-5 when kobe and shaq played with malone out of the game (+5.6 NRTG, +8.7 rORTG, +3.1 rDRTG) and when malone played with them the lakers were 30-9 with a +5 NRTG (+2.4 rORTG, -2.6 rDRTG). Kobe had a lot of off court things going on this year and this is right around where his regression defensively starts (before he can exert more effort on that end from 08-10 and makes some improvements). He has a up and down PO run in the west but still performed very well overall in the Western conference and more or less played on the same level as KG and TD when he faced off with them in the PO. yes the finals is a stain for him and really holds him back from being argued higher. Kobe and Shaq are about equal to me they can be whatever order.

5. Shaq

HMS: Jason Kidd, Ben Wallace, Jermaine O'Neal

OPOY

1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Kevin Garnett
HM: Peja Stojakovic, Steve Nash

DPOY
1. Tim Duncan
2. Ben Wallace
3. Kevin Garnett
HM: Jermaine O'Neal, Ron Artest

[One_and_Done]

Honestly debating whether I should switch out Peja for Ben.

[ceoofkobefans]

Honestly debating whether I should switch out Peja for Ben.

i would personally. Peja is about as bad defensively as wallace is offensively but id say wallace's defense > Peja's offense especially when you consider how the PO went for both

[LA Bird]

Some thoughts on the ensemble teams:

- I am not voting for him myself but I feel like Kidd is a bit forgotten this year. He was borderline top 5 last couple years and he looked around just as good this year until the Pistons series. Absolutely atrocious numbers there but the Nets were the only team to push the champs to a game 7 (where Kidd went 0-8 for 0 points in a blowout though).

- 20/10 used to be the gold standard for bigs but Artest looks to be the more valuable Pacer beyond box scores. Two player WOWY with JO and Artest during their years in Indiana were Artest and JO: +7.20 net. Artest, no JO: +7.22 net. JO, no Artest: +0.09 net. Not to mention we have good evidence of Artest's high impact on every other team he played with.

- Pistons RS success after getting Rasheed seems like a flash in the pan. They were a +3 team in 2003, +3 team in 2004 before the trade, a +12 team after the trade, and back to a +3 team in 2005. Granted the starters missed more games in 05, their healthy mark still falls well short of their post-trade level the previous season. Other notable mid-season trade improvements (Knicks DeBusschere, Bucks Lanier) held up better the following season. But that being said, the Pistons won in 04 and came a Horry game winner away from repeating in 05 so regular season form isn't the most important thing here.

- Billups won FMVP with a great Finals series but his performances in the more competitive Eastern series weren't that great and Detroit was a below average offensive team that won overwhelmingly on defense. Rasheed was closer to top 5 POY as a two way player in the past and his arrival instantly boosted their defense to historic levels. But in the playoffs, it seemed like Big Ben was the best player. His +12.6 on-court net was head and shoulders above the rest of the team.

- Webber was basically the anti-Rasheed who crashed the Kings' otherwise successful season. Before he returned in March, Sacramento had the best record (43-15), best net rating (+7.7), and the best rORtg in history (+9.4). Peja had 274 TS Add in 58 games without Webber, a rate good for around top 10 all time and Brad Miller almost looked like the best player in RAPM besides Garnett. The Kings went under .500 with Webber though and while they almost made WCF, Peja's shot was gone in the playoffs.

Will make a separate post tomorrow for my votes but it'll likely be Garnett, Duncan, Shaq, Wallace, Kirilenko.

[capfan33]

1. KG- Duncan has a better case then I originally thought he did, but still think this should be KGs year. Led a great team that was dogwater without him and managed to take the Lakers to 6 with Cassell injured and was outscored by just 2 points a game. One of the greatest peaks ever.

2. Duncan- Was also incredible in his own right, leading the best SRS team with marginal support, but Parker was a reasonable contributer by this point which gets overlooked and he also played a bit worse vs the Lakers from what I can tell. But still has a case which is impressive when he's competing against 04 KG.

3. Shaq- Continues his downward trend but still makes the finals as the best player on his team. I can't really consider Kobe both for his off the court issues as well as his horrendous finals performance.

4. Wallace- Best player on the title team, one of the great defensive years ever. I do think he was probably one of the 10 best players in the league at least even though he doesn't stand out as much with the Pistons win by committe title run, but someone from their team needs to be on here and I think he represents the team best.

5. Dirk- Honestly overlooked him at first before I remembered that Dallas had (I think) the best regular-season offense ever and I think that's notable enough to warrant inclusion. And ofc Dirk was approaching his apex and was already probably a top 5ish player in the league, so think hes the most meaningful candidate here.

[ShaqAttac]

KG
MVP won 58 and carried scrubs to 6 vs Malone shaq n kobe. mega impact, great d and o.
WALLACE
Led team to chip. swept shaq malone and kob. DPOY and all time impact on goat d.
DUNCAN
2nd best reg szn but seem like he have good team and choked vs LA.
KIDD
take champs to 7 and good d and o. maybe not alot of points but he got 3 dubs against team kobe sha malone didn' get 1 vs.
KOBE
outplayed duncan and more impact than shaq but mega choke in finals.

[penbeast0]

Ah you’re looking at on offs. Again, heavily situational statistics.

No one measure is perfect but each helps illuminate the question a little more. I am going back to sub in Ben Wallace for Billups and Artest for JO since I was very unsure on those comps originally and people here are showing reasons I was wrong.

[Djoker]

VOTING POST

POY

1. Kevin Garnett - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. MVP. KG finally gets out of the first round and this is his absolute peak as a two-way force. I don't love his efficiency when the load increases in the PS but with all the other big dogs having weaker years and no one really standing out individually, KG is probably the playoff MVP too regardless of losing in the WCF's. Cassell's injury hurts because the Wolves had a real chance to make the Finals and who knows; they might have done better against Detroit than the Lakers did. Or maybe not. Averaged 24.2/13.9/5.0 on 54.7 %TS (+3.1 rTS) in the RS then 24.3/14.6/5.1 on 51.3 %TS (-0.6 rTS) in the PS.

2. Tim Duncan - 1st Team All-NBA. 2nd Team All-Defense. Timmy did not get 1st Team All-Defense (because of KG) but in retrospect that seems a mistake given the absolute fortress the Spurs were on defense this year with a mindboggling 94.1 DRtg (-8.8 rDRtg) despite Robinson retiring after the previous season. As such, Timmy has a case for DPOY and despite some missed games, he had a typical strong year including the PS. At the end I strongly considered him for #1 but KG was equal or better at almost everything and his team did better in the PS. Averaged 22.3/12.4/3.1 on 53.4 %TS (+1.8 rTS) in the RS then 22.1/11.3/3.2 on 56.0 %TS (+4.5 rTS) in the PS.

3. Kobe Bryant - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Kobe had a bit of a down year in the RS but was the Lakers' best player in the WC playoffs. Once again a very good defender as well. However, his Finals were an unmitigated disaster with Kobe displaying the worst aspect of his aggression as he simply took too many difficult shots and played right into the Pistons' scheme. This performance is enough to remove him from consideration for the top 2 spots but again, given how unimpressive the rest of the field apart from KG/Duncan were, I think Kobe at #3 is solid. Averaged 24.0/5.5/5.1 on 55.1 %TS (+3.5 rTS) in the RS then 24.5/4.7/5.5 on 50.6 %TS (+1.9 rTS) in the PS.

4. Shaquille O'Neal - 1st Team All-NBA. The Big Diesel is beginning to decline and his stats are down across the board in both the RS and the PS. He redeemed himself to some extent in the Finals where he was far and away the best Laker (though he gave up a lot on defense and on the boards). Overall he's still an absolute superstar who demanded huge attention from defenses and made life easier on his teammates. Averaged 21.5/11.5/2.9 on 57.8 %TS (+6.2 rTS) in the RS then 21.5/13.2/2.5 on 56.5 %TS (+7.8 rTS) in the PS.

5. Dirk Nowitzki - 3rd Team All-NBA. Down RS for Dirk in terms of statistics although the Mavs offense was brutally efficient with a +9.2 rORtg. In the PS, Dirk was fantastic in a 1st round loss so he still makes the ballot here. Averaged 21.8/8.7/2.7 on 56.1 %TS (+4.5 rTS) in the RS then 26.6/11.8/1.4 on 56.1 %TS (+4.0 rTS) in the PS.

OPOY

1. Kobe Bryant - Best combo of scoring and playmaking.

2. Dirk Nowitzki - Huge scoring that leads to offensive impact.

3. Steve Nash - Efficient scoring and great playmaking. Foreshadowing 2005 explosion.

DPOY

1. Tim Duncan - Best defense in the league and historic at that (-8.8 rDRtg) despite Robinson retiring.

2. Ben Wallace - Pistons' defense was insane especially in the PS and though Sheed had a lot to do with it as well, Ben was the best Piston on defense.

3. Kevin Garnett - Anchored a -3.2 rDRtg defense with no other notable defenders on the team.

[B-Mitch 30]

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Peja Stojakovic

Peja’s shooting stats for this season might be the most efficient high volume numbers ever, relative to era. He was 2nd in three-point attempts, 6th in three-point percentage, 10th in total field goal attempts, 11th in two-point percentage, and 1st in free throw percentage. He did all of this while missing his best teammate, Chris Webber, for most of the year, with the Kings winning 55 games and nearly beating Minnesota to reach the Conference Finals.

2. Gary Payton

Looking at the insane amount of turmoil the Lakers dealt with this year, it’s amazing their offense was as good as it was. Kobe had his infamous trial, Malone tried to have an affair with Kobe’s wife and then missed half the season with a knee injury the team misdiagnosed, Shaq and Kobe missed some time and feuded because of the trial, I’m sure there’s other stuff I missed. The only constant to the team was Gary Payton, ever the professional, who played in every game and helped guide the Lakers to being 7th in eFG, 4th in turnover percentage, 16th in offensive rebounding, and 7th in free throws per field goal attempt. Payton’s stats suffered in the playoffs, but his turnovers decreased, and I imagine a lot of his passing value isn’t captured in the box score. Considering how he kept the team together in the regular season, I think he deserves this spot.

2. Dirk Nowitzki

As other posters have pointed out, the Mavericks had arguably the best regular season offense ever this year. Like 2003, I’m going to attribute most of that success to Dirk because of his scoring, rebounding, and low turnovers. Dirk might be the most complementary superstar ever, and seasons like this show why.

3. Michael Redd

The Bucks had a formidable offense this season, being in the top 10 of eFG, turnover percentage, and free throws per field goal attempt. Redd and Joe Smith were the only starters on the team to play more than 55 games, and Redd’s stats completely blow Smith’s out of the water. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen an offense carried by one player this much before.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Ben Wallace

Even though I don’t think Ben was the best player on the Pistons, he was clearly their best defensive player. Like the last two seasons, Wallace was the perfect defender, smart, long, agile, and disciplined. The Pistons real strength was committing extremely few fouls, which they maintained in the playoffs, along with their excellence everywhere else on defense, as Detroit won the Finals.

2. Kevin Garnett

The Spurs were a little better defensively than the Timberwolves, but that was mostly because of turnovers, which Tim Duncan contributed little to. I’d instead attribute that to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili continuing to improve as players. By comparison, KG had much less help than Tim, and was 19th in steals, in addition to leading the NBA in rebounds and being one of its best shot blockers.

3. Tim Duncan

The Spurs defense was arguably the only one comparable to Detroit’s, with San Antonio’s main advantage being defensive rebounding, where Timmy was obviously the biggest contributor on the team.

Player of the Year

1. Kevin Garnett

In addition to leading the team’s defense, Minnesota’s offense was very good, though lacking at offensive rebounding and drawing fouls. Nevertheless, KG went on the deepest playoff run of his career, nearly making the Finals and taking the Lakers superteam to six games.

2. Peja Stojakovic

Peja wasn’t a good defender, but he probably was at his best this season, posting career highs in blocks, steals, and rebounds. His offense was so good however, that it compensated for his deficiencies, and likely could’ve given the Kings their first championship if it wasn’t for their loss to Minnesota.

3. Tim Duncan

I’m putting Tim below Peja because of missed time, though his playoffs were better than the latter’s as the Spurs nearly beat the Lakers, only losing because of Derek Fisher’s miracle shot.

4. Gary Payton

The Lakers defense was also good, and while Payton was no longer quite the defender he used to be, clearly he was doing something right while playing so much.

4. Shaquille O’Neal

Despite his missed time and escalating feud with Kobe, Shaq was a monster in the playoffs once again, and the only Laker to play decent against the Pistons. However, no man or player is an island, and Detroit was mostly able to negate Shaq’s high efficiency scoring by not double teaming him, and using their incredible switchability to prevent his teammates from scoring well.

5. Tayshaun Prince

Looking at the on-off data for the Pistons other three starters (as Wallace contributed negatively there and Rasheed joined the team late in the season) Tayshaun was probably the best player in Detroit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d6SMowheQuUaEEb-DtjsbpxiWEiOAaEGSSiRNAc8UIY/edit?usp=sharing

(It should be noted that negative and positive on this spreadsheet refers to whether the team improved or declined when the player was on the floor, not if say, an opponent’s offensive rebounding went down)

As can be seen here, Tayshaun was the Pistons best regular season offensive player, as the team’s eFG actually decreased with Billups on the floor, and their turnover percentage was the worst when Hamilton was playing. There’s a similar story in regards to their defense and playoff numbers, though there is a weird outlier with the team’s playoff offensive rebounding dropping by 6.6% while Tayshuan was playing. Considering Prince got nearly as many offensive rebounds as Billups and Hamilton combined, I think this is just a case of small sample sizes messing with the statistics. Besides his famous block of Reggie Miller in the playoffs, Prince was also the Pistons only starter with a positive true shooting percentage.

[One_and_Done]

Going to be fascinating watching KG go from #1 to not being top 5 next year, even though he was the same player and played at pretty much the same level. Only his team changed.

Also T.Prince? Really? He was regarded as the 5th best player on his own team.

[AEnigma]

Garnett finished top three in the 2010 project for 2005 and probably will do the same this time — which is a testament to how good he is, seeing as missing the playoffs is an immediate negative for everyone who does not just vote based on their assessment of a player’s quality.

[AEnigma]

2. Gary Payton

Looking at the insane amount of turmoil the Lakers dealt with this year, it’s amazing their offense was as good as it was. Kobe had his infamous trial, Malone tried to have an affair with Kobe’s wife and then missed half the season with a knee injury the team misdiagnosed, Shaq and Kobe missed some time and feuded because of the trial, I’m sure there’s other stuff I missed. The only constant to the team was Gary Payton, ever the professional, who played in every game and helped guide the Lakers to being 7th in eFG, 4th in turnover percentage, 16th in offensive rebounding, and 7th in free throws per field goal attempt. Payton’s stats suffered in the playoffs, but his turnovers decreased, and I imagine a lot of his passing value isn’t captured in the box score. Considering how he kept the team together in the regular season, I think he deserves this spot.

4. Gary Payton

The Lakers defense was also good, and while Payton was no longer quite the defender he used to be, clearly he was doing something right while playing so much.

You need to stop doing this. The Tayshaun vote is a bit obtuse but you at least made an effort to justify it comparatively (even if reading between the lines you basically toss Ben as a candidate for being bad offensively and Rasheed as a candidate for being traded). In contrast, the sole justification here is that Payton was the only Laker to not miss games… but that is absolutely not an argument for listing Payton as the fourth most significant player of the year and second most significant offensive player of the year (at best it is an argument against Shaq and Kobe generally).

Now, I recognise that because you have set arbitrary rules, your options are “limited”. Say no Kirilenko because you exclude missed postseasons; fine. No Kidd or BDiddy because they were inefficient and also missed time. No Jermaine/Artest because they were inefficient (and Artest also missed time). I will go ahead and assume it is bad to be below .500, so Pierce is also out (and was a neutral efficiency scorer anyway).

None of that explains why apparently the 52-win, 4.86 SRS Mavericks, who generated the best regular season offence in league history, not only do not merit a spot on your RPoY above Payton, but do not even merit an Offensive Player of the Year nod? Just nothing there to suggest they might be more deserving than 35-year-old Gary Payton (whom you have quite transparently excluded from ballots in his prime)? Hey, for RPoY, maybe you decided to penalise them for bad defence. Again, arbitrary, but right in line with tossing or attempting to toss players for inefficiency. Well, alright, if you are really committed to taking an iconoclastic approach, we also have the 50-win Grizzlies, who were a “balanced” team… but nope, nothing there either.

This project is not an exercise in just how far you can push the line for ballot inclusions.

[B-Mitch 30]

Fair enough Enigma, do you want me to change my vote or just avoid picks that are too unconventional in the future?

[LA Bird]

Player of the Year
1. Kevin Garnett
2. Tim Duncan
3. Shaquille O'Neal
4. Ben Wallace
5. Andrei Kirilenko

Garnett reaches all time level peak in a relatively down year for the other contenders. Easy POY for me. This is low key Duncan's peak in a few composite box score stats and the Spurs were the GOAT non-Russell defense with him but he missed quite a few games and his shooting continues to sink (<60% FT, <40% mid range). Got outplayed by Shaq in the playoffs but LA also had Malone whose man defense was a problem for all the Western bigs that postseason. I have Duncan as the clear second in the regular season and the Lakers series wasn't enough to drop him. Between Shaq and Kobe, the net difference in one without the other lineups is back to +9 in Shaq's favor after an outlier Kobe year. Also, the missed games are no longer an issue when Kobe missed even more than Shaq this season. Big Ben led the Pistons to a title with his defense and had the playoffs plus minutes advantage over Rasheed so he gets the 4th spot.

It seems like I might be the only Kirilenko voter so I'll focus my writeup here. The Jazz missed the playoffs and that's probably the obvious reason to exclude him but Garnett will also be missing the playoffs next year and I am assuming many will still be voting for him. Utah's record would be 4th in the East and if they had swapped places with the Nets, the Jazz would have been Atlantic division leaders with the #2 seed. And very importantly, Kirilenko did this with a team that was widely projected to be the worst in the league coming into the season. They lost Malone, Stockton, a third starter in Cheaney, plus most of their bench too with little in return. The Jazz were last in preseason betting for W-L and one ESPN writer famously predicted single digit wins for them:

https://www.espn.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hughes_frank&id=1623467

Now, with both of those future Hall of Famers gone, the Jazz is going to continue its consistency. It is going to be consistently bad. And I don't mean like Los Angeles Clippers bad. I mean like the nine-win Philadelphia 76ers bad. Don't look now, but the upcoming season's version of the Jazz could be the worst team in NBA history.

...

Without those two legends around, I wonder how long it will take before today's respect-me NBA players get weary of hearing Sloan's old-school rants and something drastic has to happen to alleviate the pressure. If nothing else, it will give us something to watch other than the Jazz's pursuit of eight wins -- or less.

Others like Bill Simmons and Chad Ford wrote at the time:

https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons%2F031029

One thing's for sure: Utah will be the worst team in the West. They're brutal. A guy named "Arroyo" replaced Stockton -- I had to look up his first name on the internet. Their big off-season move was Keon Clark, who went to college in Vegas (UNLV), then played for Toronto, Sacramento and now Utah. No wonder he keeps getting busted for pot; he's probably clinically depressed. Greg Ostertag and Jarron Collins share the center position; this could be the team that yields Shaq's first 100-point game. Your go-to guys this season? Andrei Kirilenko and Matt Harpring.

What a ghastly bunch. If you could wager on "Number of total Utah wins" vs. "Number of weeks before Sloan is sobbing at his retirement press conference," which one would you take?

https://www.espn.com/insider/story?id=1602405

At one point, the team was fairly confident that it was going to land Elton Brand and Andre Miller. When both fell through, and then the Clippers matched the offer to Corey Maggette, the Jazz were left with nothing. You can't really point the finger at GM Kevin O'Conner. He managed the cap perfectly and did everything possible to improve his team. But if guys don't want to come, they don't want to come. They did salvage Keon Clark in a deal for a second-round pick, but he won't be enough to keep the Jazz from having the worst record in the league next season.

The key offseason addition they both mentioned, Keon Clark, played 2 games and scored 4 points total before his career ended. Besides Kirilenko, the top minute getters on the 2004 Jazz and their averages the previous season were as follow:

Greg Ostertag - 5.4 ppg
Raja Bell - 3.1 ppg
Carlos Arroyo - 2.8 ppg
Jarron Collins - 5.5 ppg
Raul Lopez - rookie (career avg 6.5 ppg)
DeShawn Stevenson - 4.6 ppg
Sasha Pavlovic - rookie (career avg 4.9 ppg)

Fans often throw around the term D-league supporting cast but this is honestly not that far off. Matt Harpring was the only teammate who got relevant NBA minutes the previous year but he had a season-ending injury after only 31 games and Kirilenko continued to lead the Jazz to the same win rate without him. Many credited the Jazz success this season to Jerry Sloan but we got to see how this team played without Kirilenko when he sprained his ankle.

Lose by 16 to Warriors (37 win team)
Lose by 21 to Nuggets (43 win team)
Lose by 11 to Clippers (worst team in the West)
Lose by 7 to Lakers (without Shaq or Malone, starting 38yo Grant and Medvedenko who had a career high 26 points)

There is no coaching magic. The Jazz without Kirilenko played like the worst team in the league many predicted. But with Kirilenko, they went 42-36 in a very strong division. If he was a flashy volume scorer, this season by Kirilenko would have gone down in history as one of the best floor raising, team carrying performance. But instead, it's largely forgotten nowadays.

Watch on YouTube

This is only a short highlight reel but it shows some of Kirilenko's versatility. He is the only player in NBA history to finish top 5 in both steals and blocks per game in the same season (4th and 3rd). He was also one of the few PFs with guard like handles and passing skills and he shot 34% from three. If we look at some stats, he was 5th in WS, 2nd in VORP, 2nd in RAPTOR, and 6th in JE's PI RAPM. Scoring is Kirilenko's biggest weakness and he was never a go to scorer but people forget how deflated league wide offensive numbers were in 2004. Prime Dirk averaged 21.8 ppg with 34% shooting from 3. Peja was runner up for the scoring title with a lower average than any 2nd place finisher since the pre-Russell era. Defense was king this season and on top of an already tough offensive environment, Kirilenko was on a team that:

- Had no NBA-caliber point guard who could set him up with easier baskets (47.1% unassisted on 2s)
- Got almost no spacing (2nd to last in both 3pt volume and efficiency)
- Was very slow with few transition opportunities (2nd to last in pace)

Kirilenko scored 24.1% of his team's points in the minutes when he was on-court. Dirk, for comparison, scored 26.5%. Nobody will confuse Kirilenko as a great scorer but on a team surrounded by even worse options, his scoring was more valuable than what the raw ppg would suggest. And in a defense first year where none of the usual stars were scoring super well anyway and Ben Wallace is a POY candidate, I don't think Kirilenko's scoring is that big of an issue. He took a team many expected to be the worst in the league to playoffs level while putting up near league leading numbers in both box scores and impact stats.

[One_and_Done]

Fair enough Enigma, do you want me to change my vote or just avoid picks that are too unconventional in the future?

I missed the Payton vote. That was utterly absurd. He wasn't a top 100 player that year, and there is no line of reasoning that can be advanced to suggest otherwise.

[lessthanjake]

I think B-Mitch 30 wants to make off-the-wall picks that are zany or provoke some discussion about players no one is talking about. I do think this type of voting goes in the “I don't want PJ Brown votes” part of the instructions though, and should probably be relegated to honorable mentions. At the same time, though, it’s not like the random players B-Mitch 30 puts on his ballot are going to get votes from anyone else so it doesn’t end up mattering a whole lot that his votes are often for very random players. His ballots basically just tend to be a top 1-3 and then a bunch of honorable mentions. I guess it does unduly elevate the conventional people he votes at the top of his ballots, since potential contenders against those players get overtaken on his ballot by PJ-Brown-type votes. In that sense, the effect is like strategic voting, but I don’t get the sense that’s what B-Mitch 30 is actually intending to do (and I am someone who initially posted saying I thought he was strategic voting in a year where I actually agreed with his #1—I just think I’ve now seen enough to think that’s not what’s happening). If B-Mitch 30 wanted to strategic vote, he could just choose amongst more plausible alternative candidates from the players he wanted to downplay, and no one would be able to say much about it. Indeed, it’d be more effective that way—since it’d actually give voting points to other people who might plausibly find support elsewhere. Maybe the intent doesn’t really matter though, if the effect is similar to strategic voting.