Retro Player of the Year 2003-04 UPDATE — Kevin Garnett

[AEnigma]

Fair enough Enigma, do you want me to change my vote or just avoid picks that are too unconventional in the future?

I want you to vote in the spirit of the project, which pretty much every other voter has managed to do on a consistent basis.

An “unconventional” vote is not an issue in itself, because the standards for the project are both open to interpretation and not clearly defined. However, a line being vague is what (barely…) permits arguments like “Peja Stojakovic was the second most notable player of 2004”; it does not give you free rein to travel several hundred kilometres past it by attempting to say that Gary Payton was the second most significant offensive player of 2004. And not only are you are the sole voter who consistently goes so far past that vague line that it is not even observable, but you also frequently do not bother to engage in the comparative exercise of why you would take these extremely “unconventional” positions in any consistent way.

Again, Tayshaun as the top Piston is certainly unconventional, but you at least made an effort to show why he was your top Piston in contrast to the typical “convention” of all four other starters. When you decline to make that effort for “2004 Gary Payton #2 OPoY, #4 RPoY,” that tells me that you do not have a valid and internally consistent comparative reason to vote him that highly. (Mind you, that applies to Peja’s placements too, but there you can hide a bit behind the fact Peja is an easily recognisable candidate for both ballots; no such leeway applies when it comes to Payton.)

And look, I recognise that a certain logic could seem… not awful… at an initial glance. “I know Gary Payton is a pretty good player — even though I basically never voted for him and in fact put his teammate Hersey Hawkins above him during a year where Payton played much more and was the consensus team leader — and he was the only consistent presence on this team that was pretty good in the regular season and made the Finals, so why not?” Unfortunately, at best that just makes the vote look lazy, because no one who gave that team more than a cursory glance came away with any other conclusion than “that team was led by Kobe and Shaq,” and theoretical laziness is not a good excuse in a project to which you are voluntarily contributing for the ostensible purpose of advancing discussion and/or understanding of what occurred in these seasons.

Kobe and Shaq played 57 games together this season. Shaq played 10 games without Kobe, and Kobe played 8 games without Shaq. That leaves 7 games where Gary Payton was by himself. In those games, he “led” the Lakers to a 2-5 record, with the team on average scoring 85.3 points per game in a -5 loss. Even in the most superficial sense, does that seem like a top four player and/or top two offensive player by your own standards?

[OhayoKD]

I would just let bmitch vote as he wants honestly.

[trelos6]

Going to be fascinating watching KG go from #1 to not being top 5 next year, even though he was the same player and played at pretty much the same level. Only his team changed.

.

I have KG at #2 overall next season.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

1 - Kevin Garnett
2 - Shaq
3 - Tim Duncan
4 - Ben Wallace
5 - AK

Looks like almost agrees on the top two. A couple people are saying Duncan or KG is a thing but like it just seems like why? Okay so maybe his team wasn't as good because I just list all these names of players. But I know more of the players from the Spurs than the Wolves and I'm pretty sure most people do so like what are you even trying to say? KG's stats are better and he goes further and his team sucks without him and his stats are better against the same team and it looks like he played amazing defense so I don't get how anyone is voting for Duncan besides just him being named Tim Duncan. This is like the same stuff when people just voted MJ when Magic played better and won more because they're MJ but now it's Duncan. What's the point if we're just going to vote the same players ahead no matter what? At least MJ had flashy stats but KGs stats are better and his team's better and he's got less help so how is Duncan still ahead?

Even the guys who usually vote Duncan think Shaq outplayed him and Shaq has way better stats and beats him and Duncan now has Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli so idk what we're doing. Like I guess you could say LA was a superteam because of names but that's weak.

Wallace's true shooting is terrible and all but if he's the best guy on the team that sweeps the superteam that was so hard for Duncan and Parker and Manu to beat he's got to be here right?

Now I know you're gonna say hey it's way too early but if we care so much about making teams better when you come like with Bird and Kareem then shouldn't Lebron coming in and making the Cavs way better immediately get some love? 21/6/5 is neat though the true shooting is bad. They won 17 games before. And they win 17 more games with a teenager playing almost every game. That seems like alot of impact to me.

Okay I guess it's too early.

Defensive Player of the Year

1 - Ben Wallace
2 - Kevin Garnett
3 - Tim Duncan

Offensive Player of the Year

1 - Kevin Garnett
2 - Shaq
3 - Kobe Bryant

[trelos6]

Player of the Year

5. Andrei Kirilenko


It seems like I might be the only Kirilenko voter so I'll focus my writeup here.

He was close to the top 5. But ultimately, I couldn’t get there. I’m happy someone put him on their ballot.

[AEnigma]

5 - Lebron James

Now I know you're gonna say hey it's way too early but if we care so much about making teams better when you come like with Bird and Kareem then shouldn't Lebron coming in and making the Cavs way better immediately get some love? 21/6/5 is neat though the true shooting is bad. They won 17 games before. And they win 17 more games with a teenager playing almost every game. That seems like alot of impact to me.

And what do you make of how the Nuggets went from a 17-win, -7.4 SRS team in 2003 to a 43-win, 1.65 SRS postseason team in 2004.

Also would like to hear why, among the postseason-less “team carry” candidates, you think this qualifies as a more significant case of team lift than what Kirilenko did (as detailed thoroughly by LA Bird).

[OhayoKD]

Player of the Year

5. Andrei Kirilenko


It seems like I might be the only Kirilenko voter so I'll focus my writeup here.

He was close to the top 5. But ultimately, I couldn’t get there. I’m happy someone put him on their ballot.

Second this. Very much want to include him reading LA Bird's post but I'd have to knock of one of Wallace, Shaq, Duncan, or Kobe to do it. And there's Dirk.

Would take him over rookie Lebron or Gary Payton for sure though. Probably over Kidd as well

[ceoofkobefans]

[streamable][/streamable]

1 - Kevin Garnett
2 - Shaq
3 - Tim Duncan
4 - Ben Wallace
5 - Lebron James

Looks like almost agrees on the top two. A couple people are saying Duncan or KG is a thing but like it just seems like why? Okay so maybe his team wasn't as good because I just list all these names of players. But I know more of the players from the Spurs than the Wolves and I'm pretty sure most people do so like what are you even trying to say? KG's stats are better and he goes further and his team sucks without him and his stats are better against the same team and it looks like he played amazing defense so I don't get how anyone is voting for Duncan besides just him being named Tim Duncan. This is like the same stuff when people just voted MJ when Magic played better and won more because they're MJ but now it's Duncan. What's the point if we're just going to vote the same players ahead no matter what? At least MJ had flashy stats but KGs stats are better and his team's better and he's got less help so how is Duncan still ahead?

Even the guys who usually vote Duncan think Shaq outplayed him and Shaq has way better stats and beats him and Duncan now has Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli so idk what we're doing. Like I guess you could say LA was a superteam because of names but that's weak.

Wallace's true shooting is terrible and all but if he's the best guy on the team that sweeps the superteam that was so hard for Duncan and Parker and Manu to beat he's got to be here right?

Now I know you're gonna say hey it's way too early but if we care so much about making teams better when you come like with Bird and Kareem then shouldn't Lebron coming in and making the Cavs way better immediately get some love? 21/6/5 is neat though the true shooting is bad. They won 17 games before. And they win 17 more games with a teenager playing almost every game. That seems like alot of impact to me.

Defensive Player of the Year

1 - Ben Wallace
2 - Kevin Garnett
3 - Tim Duncan

Offensive Player of the Year

1 - Kevin Garnett
2 - Shaq
3 - Kobe Bryant

Going from 17 wins to 34 wins is not the same as going from 25 wins to 60 or 27 to 56

[OhayoKD]

[streamable][/streamable]

1 - Kevin Garnett
2 - Shaq
3 - Tim Duncan
4 - Ben Wallace
5 - Lebron James

Looks like almost agrees on the top two. A couple people are saying Duncan or KG is a thing but like it just seems like why? Okay so maybe his team wasn't as good because I just list all these names of players. But I know more of the players from the Spurs than the Wolves and I'm pretty sure most people do so like what are you even trying to say? KG's stats are better and he goes further and his team sucks without him and his stats are better against the same team and it looks like he played amazing defense so I don't get how anyone is voting for Duncan besides just him being named Tim Duncan. This is like the same stuff when people just voted MJ when Magic played better and won more because they're MJ but now it's Duncan. What's the point if we're just going to vote the same players ahead no matter what? At least MJ had flashy stats but KGs stats are better and his team's better and he's got less help so how is Duncan still ahead?

Even the guys who usually vote Duncan think Shaq outplayed him and Shaq has way better stats and beats him and Duncan now has Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli so idk what we're doing. Like I guess you could say LA was a superteam because of names but that's weak.

Wallace's true shooting is terrible and all but if he's the best guy on the team that sweeps the superteam that was so hard for Duncan and Parker and Manu to beat he's got to be here right?

Now I know you're gonna say hey it's way too early but if we care so much about making teams better when you come like with Bird and Kareem then shouldn't Lebron coming in and making the Cavs way better immediately get some love? 21/6/5 is neat though the true shooting is bad. They won 17 games before. And they win 17 more games with a teenager playing almost every game. That seems like alot of impact to me.

Defensive Player of the Year

1 - Ben Wallace
2 - Kevin Garnett
3 - Tim Duncan

Offensive Player of the Year

1 - Kevin Garnett
2 - Shaq
3 - Kobe Bryant

Going from 17 wins to 34 wins is not the same as going from 25 wins to 60 or 27 to 56

Top 5 is also not the same as a top 1 vote which both received.

Still by this standard Melo was better.

[Lebronnygoat]

5 - Lebron James

Now I know you're gonna say hey it's way too early but if we care so much about making teams better when you come like with Bird and Kareem then shouldn't Lebron coming in and making the Cavs way better immediately get some love? 21/6/5 is neat though the true shooting is bad. They won 17 games before. And they win 17 more games with a teenager playing almost every game. That seems like alot of impact to me.

And what do you make of how the Nuggets went from a 17-win, -7.4 SRS team in 2003 to a 43-win, 1.65 SRS postseason team in 2004.

Also would like to hear why, among the postseason-less “team carry” candidates, you think this qualifies as a more significant case of team lift than what Kirilenko did (as detailed thoroughly by LA Bird).

Nuggets cast got heavily better, and the Cavs cast arguably got worse. Bron at 5 is a highball argument though.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I haven't been participating in this, but I've been reading recently and wanted to share some thoughts.

1. It's Garnett's year. He played all 82 games and recorded the #1 RAPM in the league at 10.01(well over two points higher than the next highest - Duncan) while posting a +20.7 RS on/off and +26.7 PO on/off(blowing the rest of the team away), winning the MVP, and getting his team within two games of the finals with Sam Cassell as his second best player. That's no swipe at Cassell either - he's historically not given the credit he deserves for that team and contrary to what some have said in this thread, there are plenty of people who still believe the Wolves would've beaten the Lakers if Cassell hadn't gotten hurt - but it's not exactly like having Scottie or Kobe or Wade as your #2.

2. Most of you are making Big Ben the 04 Pistons representative in your Top 5s, and I understand why, but I think there's an argument for Sheed.

First off, just based on RAPM...Sheed was strongest, having recorded the #5 RAPM in the league at 6.55(Big Ben was #8 at 4.78). That means the only players with higher RAPM this season were Garnett, Duncan, Shaq, and Dirk. Sheed and Big Ben are in the same general ballpark for D-RAPM(4.38 for Sheed vs 4.94 for Big Ben), but Big Ben literally posts a negative O-RAPM(-0.16) while Sheed bolsters his overall score with a 2.17 O-RAPM.

On top of that, Sheed's on/off in the 22 games he played with the Pistons was +13.4, far ahead of any other Piston(albeit their on/offs are all for 78-82 game full seasons). This, of course, is countered with the fact that in the playoffs, Big Ben's on/off dwarves anyone else's on the team. Still worth mentioning.

By these measures there is a real argument to be made that Sheed was the most impactful two-way player on the team that won the championship.

Second off, to support that statement, we can look at the Pistons record before Sheed vs after Sheed. Now, the Pistons were already very good, having made the ECF the year before, so this isn't about making a bad team good; rather, it's about making a good team a championship-calibre team. So, before acquiring Sheed, the Pistons were 37-23, for .617 winning percentage, or a 51 win pace. With Sheed, the Pistons went 17-5, for a .773 winning percentage, or a 63-64 win pace. And the other guys were very healthy, there were no other significant absences that I can see that would mitigate this.

Now, I should acknowledge a couple of things related to the above. One is that the Blazers' record with vs without Sheed this season is nearly identical; they were 23-22 with him and 18-19 without. Another is that the following season, the Pistons, with Sheed for the full season and everyone healthy, won the same number of games that they did this season - 54 - so the bump in wins didn't occur.

For the former, I would say that by 2004 the Blazers were the Jail Blazers, they were a dysfunctional mess, and I find it difficult to blame Sheed for their unimpressiveness, especially since he was the main guy on two Blazers teams that reached the WCF and since the Blazers completely collapsed in 2004-05. For the latter, I would offer the possibility that the defection of their best bench player in Mehmet Okur to Utah(where he was a core piece of what they did for the next few years) weakened them a bit, as well as the possibility that the Eastern Conference got stronger with the Heat and Cavs getting better.

Finally, just in terms of perception...despite their 2003 ECF run, I don't recall anyone thinking the Pistons were a serious threat to win a title in 2004(read: beat the Western Conference champ) until they got Sheed. After the trade, I remember a distinct sentiment in the air of 'holy crap, the Pistons got Sheed for nothing, they could win it all now'.

It's not clear-cut, but I wanted to make a case for Sheed.

3. I've always thought highly of Kidd's peak years, and he looks really strong this season. His was the #7 RAPM in the league at 5.08. Had a +12.9 RS on/off and a +11.3 PO on/off.

But maybe what stands out most is the WOWY W/L. Kidd played 67 games. In those 67 games, the Nets went 41-26 for a .612 winning percentage, or a 50 win pace. In the 15 games he missed, the Nets went 6-9 for a .400 winning percentage, or a 33 win pace. Now, Kenyon Martin also missed a number of those same games, so that should be noted, but at the same time, I would be inclined to give Kidd the benefit of the doubt over K-Mart in terms of where the lion's share of the impact is coming from.

4. LA Bird made a great argument for Kirilenko, but I think there's a similar argument for Paul Pierce. The Celtics roster outside of Pierce this season looks just as putrid was the Jazz roster did. These are the players that played 20mpg or more on that roster: Chucky Atkins, Mike James, Ricky Davis, Mark Blount, Vin Baker, Jiri Welsch, Walter McCarty, Eric Williams, and Tony Battie. I mean, they were an awful team. To add insult to injury, Jim O'Brien was fired midway through the season, and his assistant John Carroll coached the last 36 games of the season and the playoffs as a placeholder(Doc Rivers was hired the following season).

Pierce recorded the #10 RAPM in the league at 4.16 and led the team to 36 wins and a playoff berth(they were swept). There is unfortunately no meaningful W/L WOWY here because Pierce played 80 games. Now, Pierce did not score efficiently and his on/off in the regular season is less impressive than his RAPM, but my god, look at who he was playing with. The 36 games they won may not be impressive, and it wouldn't have made the playoffs in the West, but do they win 10 without Pierce?

There are other guys in this tier - Baron Davis, Ray Allen, Vince Carter - but Baron had a better roster(Mashburn, PJ Brown, Magloire, David Wesley, young David West), Allen at least had Rashard Lewis next to him, and Carter...ok Carter's situation was almost as bleak as Pierce, but at least he had rookie Bosh. Pierce had no one.

I don't really think Pierce quite has a Top 5 case(nor Kirilenko, despite LA Bird's great post), but he hasn't been mentioned much, so I wanted to highlight him.

5. Kobe's getting a lot of Top 5 nods here and...I don't think I agree with that. I generally argue for Kobe being a Top 15 all time player, and I think he probably has 5-7 seasons where he was Top 5, but I don't think this is one of them. Observe his year-by-year RAPM league rankings from 2000-2013:

2000 - #122
2001 - #8
2002 - #17
2003 - #17
2004 - #31
2005 - #29
2006 - #9
2007 - #12
2008 - #4
2009 - #8
2010 - #6
2011 - #29
2012 - #42
2013 - #108

So in 1999-00 he was just emerging as a full-blown star and from 2011-2013 he was beginning to decline, so that explains those lower rankings. But if you look from 2001 to 2010 - essentially his prime - there are two years where his RAPM rank is significantly lower than all the surrounding years - this season and the following season. Given the chasm between him and his teammate Shaq this season - Shaq's RAPM is nearly five points higher, Shaq's RS on/off is +11.5 to Kobe's +5.9, and Shaq's PO on/off is +25.3 to Kobe's +13.6 - and Kobe's poor Finals performance, I'm just not sure. I've got Garnett, Duncan, and Shaq as locks for the Top 5; between DIrk, the Pistons guys, and Kidd, I feel like at least two of them would have a better case this season.

6. So Dirk's RAPM - 7.26, #4 in the league - and individual offensive box numbers as well as the team's offensive numbers would suggest a Top 5 slot might be warranted here, but his -2.7 PO on/off gives me pause, even though his box composites for the playoffs are off the charts. I'm also just not really a fan of the 2004 Mavs if I'm being honest, despite the sky high offensive numbers. This was the year they had Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison, as well as the last year of Nash and the last full year of Don Nelson coaching. I loved the 2003 team with Nick Van Exel that went to the WCF. If anything needed to be done after 2003, it was adding a little more defense to the squad, but instead they just added more offense. They were running Dirk/Jamison/Walker/Finley/Nash units. Like, just giving up on defense altogether. Completely underutilizing Shawn Bradley, an actual impactful defensive player, cutting his minutes from 21 to 11. I just wasn't a fan of that team, and the proof is in the pudding - they lost in the first round. Their win total, SRS and Net Rtg are all lower than in 2003. Anyway, the negative PO on/off, as well as his RS on/off - which while very solid at +7.5 is still the second lowest one he recorded at any point between 2000-01 and 2011-12 - gives me a bit of pause here.

7. Peja's been getting some mentions, not really for POY but for OPOY, and I've seen some people attributing the Kings' success this season without Webber to him. I get why - he put up eye-popping scoring numbers on a team that won 55 games mostly without its biggest name and have came in 10th in MVP voting.

I don't really think it was a carry job though...that team was exceptionally well-coached and they had a handful of really solid players.

Brad Miller had higher RAPM - 2.48 vs Peja's 1.42; Brad had the highest RS on/off on the team at +12.9, compared to Peja's +5.8; Brad had the second highest PO on/off on the team at +10.5, compared to Peja's -9.8(Mike Bibby was #1 at +16.1). Peja did not perform well in the playoffs - in addition to the negative on/off, his TS% fell from 62.4% in the RS to 48.8 in the PO, his WS/48 dropped from .198 to .091, and his BPM dropped from 3.9 to 0.7. Brad's numbers more or less maintained across the board from RS to PO.

Vlade and Bibby were also really solid.

[penbeast0]

Appreciate your making the case for Sheed, it's very much a big 3 or even a big 4 team depending on how much you like Rip Hamilton. I have him easily 3rd behind Ben and Chauncey though; not so much for just on the court play but also taking into account that the other two do a strong job setting a tone and identity for the team and making their teammates better. As you said, the Blazers when Sheed left were a mess and as the lead dog for that team, I think you have to hold him somewhat accountable for that. The Pistons were a team that played above their talent; Sheed added a major talent but I don't think he was the reason they played so well as a team.

[AEnigma]

Honestly debating whether I should switch out Peja for Ben.

Have you decided to stick with Peja, or are you still considering.

Roughly 3.5 hours to go.

[One_and_Done]

I switched #5 to Ben.

[Narigo]

1. Kevin Garnett - Clear best player in the regular season and the playoffs. Arguably the best defensive player in the league. And probably peaked on offensive side of the ball as well The Injury to Sam Cassell in the WCf pretty much sealed their fate

2. Tim Duncan- Clear number 2 behind KG

3. Shaquille O'Neal- Hard to say who was the best player on the Lakers between he and Kobe in the rs but Shaq was definitely the best player in the playoffs so he gets the edge

4. Dirk Nowiitzki- It's close between Shaq, Dirk and Kobe in the regular season but Dirk was better than in the PS than Kobe on a smaller sample

5.Kobe Bryant- Arguably better than Shaq in the regular season but plays poorly in the playoffs especially in the finals

[AEnigma]

Votes are tallied. I recorded 13 approved voters: Djoker, AEnigma, B-Mitch 30, OhayoKD, capfan33, ILikeShaiGuys, LA Bird, ShaqAttac, penbeast0, Narigo, One_and_Done, CEOofKobefans, and trelos. DJoker, AEnigma, B-Mitch 30, CEOofKobefans, ILikeShaiGuys, OhayoKD, and trelos voted for both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Please let me know if I seem to have missed or otherwise improperly recorded a vote.

2003-04 Results

(Retro) Offensive Player of the Year — Dirk Nowitzki

Code: Select all

Player       1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Dirk Nowitzki   3   2   0    21    0.600
2. Steve Nash    1   2   1    12    0.343
3a. Kevin Garnett    1   0   4    9    0.257
3b. Kobe Bryant  1   1   1   9    0.257
4. Peja Stojakovic    1   1   0    8    0.229
5. Shaquille O’Neal   0   1   0    3    0.086
6. Michael Redd    0   0   1    1    0.029

(Retro) Defensive Player of the Year — Ben Wallace

Code: Select all

Player         1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Ben Wallace   5   2   0    31    0.886
2. Kevin Garnett   0   5   2    17    0.486
3. Tim Duncan  2   0   5    15    0.429

Retro Player of the Year — Kevin Garnett

Code: Select all

Player      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Kevin Garnett  12  0  1  0  0   125   0.962
2. Tim Duncan  1  8  4  0  0    86   0.662
3. Shaquille O’Neal  0  3  4  3  1   51   0.392
4. Ben Wallace  0  1  0  5  2   24   0.185
5a. Dirk Nowitzki   0  0  1  3  2   16   0.123
5b. Kobe Bryant  0  0  2  1  3   16   0.123
7. Peja Stojakovic   0  1  0  0  0   7   0.054
8. Metta Artest   0  0  1  0  0   5   0.038
9a. Andrei Kirilenko   0  0  0  0  3   3   0.023
9b. Jason Kidd   0  0  0  1  0   3   0.023
11. Jermaine O’Neal   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.008
11. Tayshaun Prince   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.008

In the prior project, there were 22 votes, with no overlap. These are the aggregated results of the two projects across 35 total ballots:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Kevin Garnett  34  0  1  0  0   345   0.986
2. Tim Duncan  1  28  5  1  0    234   0.669
3. Shaquille O’Neal  0  3  19  9  1   144   0.411
4. Kobe Bryant  0  1  6  11  8   78   0.223
5. Ben Wallace  0  1  0  7  9   37   0.106
6. Dirk Nowitzki   0  1  1  4  3   27   0.077
7. Jermaine O’Neal   0  0  2  1  3   16   0.046
8. Peja Stojakovic   0  1  0  0  2   9   0.026
9. Andrei Kirilenko   0  0  0  1  4   7   0.020
10. Metta Artest   0  0  1  0  0   5   0.014
11. Jason Kidd   0  0  0  1  0   3   0.009
12. Chauncey Billups   0  0  0  0  2   2   0.006
12. Tracy McGrady   0  0  0  0  2   2   0.006
14. Tayshaun Prince   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.003

2005 thread will open shortly.