Retro Player of the Year 2004-05 UPDATE — Tim Duncan

[AEnigma]

General Project Discussion Thread

Discussion and Results from the 2010 Project

In this thread we'll discuss and vote on the top 5 players and the top 3 offensive and defensive players of 2004-05.

Player of the Year (POY)(5) — most accomplished overall player of that season
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)(3) — most accomplished offensive player of that season
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)(3) — most accomplished defensive player of that season

Voting will close sometime after 19:00PM EST on Saturday, January 11th. I have no issue keeping it open so long as discussion is strong, but please try to vote within the first three days.

Valid ballots must provide an explanation for your choices that gives us a window into how you thought and why you came to the decisions you did. You can vote for any of the three awards — although they must be complete votes — but I will only tally votes for an award when there are at least five valid ballots submitted for it.

Remember, your votes must be based on THIS season. This is intended to give wide wiggle room for personal philosophies while still providing a boundary to make sure the award can be said to mean something. You can factor things like degree of difficulty as defined by you, but what you can't do is ignore how the player actually played on the floor this season in favor of what he might have done if only...

You may change your vote, but if you do, edit your original post rather than writing, "hey, ignore my last post, this is my real post until I change my mind again.” I similarly ask that ballots be kept in one post rather than making one post for Player of the Year, one post for Offensive Player of the Year, and/or one post for Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to provide your reasoning that way for the sake of discussion, fine, but please keep the official votes themselves in one aggregated post. Finally, for ease of tallying, I prefer for you to place your votes at the beginning of your balloting post, with some formatting that makes them stand out. I will not discount votes which fail to follow these requests, but I am certainly more likely to overlook them.

Contrarian votes can be and have been sincere, but they look a lot more sincere when you take the time to fully present your reasoning rather than transparently pretend nothing is amiss.

Vote sincerely. Do not move a player down in your voting to give another player an advantage. I would encourage every voter to give some explanations while they do their voting - but particularly if you have a top 5 that deviates strongly with the norm and you haven't expressed your thoughts on it earlier in the thread. If I'm not satisfied, I may ask you for more of an explanation - and it may come to actually booting people out of the project.

The rules here are that you've got to use the same type of thinking for all 5 votes. I understand putting more thought into #1 than #5, but I don't want PJ Brown votes. Voters do Brown type votes to give a guy an honorable mention. Makes sense if people only care about who finishes 1st, but I've been clear that I want to measure more than that. I've been trying to encourage literal "honorable mentions" to serve that purpose, and I'd ask that people use that as the way they honor guys who did something special but who aren't actually a top 5 guy that year.

There is a significant difference between a properly justified and internally consistent contrarian vote, and a vote whose purpose is to undermine the project itself. Ballots which threaten to do the latter and derail project discussion via blatant vote manipulation are liable to be tossed. If it happens twice, the offending poster will be removed from the project.

Current Voter List

Spoiler:

[One_and_Done]

1. Duncan
2. Nash
3. Shaq
4. KG
5. Dirk

The top 5 is pretty easy for me, but the order is tough. I’ve ultimately gone with Duncan over Nash, Nash over Shaq, and KG over Dirk.

I think Duncan was only about 90-95% of what he was at his peak from 05-07. The 05 finals, where he was clearly not quite 100%, highlights this. Of course, he also had a very tough match up, with Detroit able to throw both Ben and Sheed at him throughout the game. He missed some RS games, but not enough that it’d drag him down from #1. At the end of the day, the Spurs won the title, and he was the biggest reason why. He was the most impactful player in the league still, especially on D which doesn’t show up on the stat sheet as well. That said, it does still show up. The Spurs had a Drtg that was #1 in the NBA, and despite the touch rule changes that came in this year the Spurs Drtg was still higher than in 2003. Duncan’s league best Drtg of 93 is also a pretty loud data point. Duncan still clocked 34.3pp100, 19.1rp100, 4ap100 and a 540 TS% over the playoffs as well, scoring at above the league RS average of 529 TS% despite scoring getting tougher in the PS, especially given the teams Duncan played. He benefitted greatly from Manu turning into a star during the year, but the driving force of the team was still Duncan (as evidenced by the Spurs 51-15 record in games he played, and 8-8 record in games he missed).

Some people will point to Amare going off in the 05 series as a point against Duncan. I think that substantially misunderstands how the series unfolded. Firstly, the starting 5s in the Suns series were Amare & Nazr. Duncan’s positional counterpart was technically Marion (who had an absolutely abysmal series, averaging 7.8ppg on a 412 TS%). Obviously Duncan and Amare still matched up a bunch, but really the Spurs were happy for Amare to isolate for a tonne of midrange shots, taking the Suns out of their offense, and slowing the game down to a Spurs friendly pace of 91.8 (as opposed to the 95.9 pace the Suns played at all season). Amare gave up almost as much of defence as he did on offense, which was a big reason the Spurs won the series easily 4-1.

Nash is #2 for me over Shaq. He took over a 29 win Suns team, and made them a 62 win powerhouse. Obviously he was not the only change; Amare only played 55 games as a rookie the previous year, and he improved as a player. Q.Rich also joined the team. Overall though, the changes were pretty minimal, and enough to indicate Nash was the primary driver of the Suns success. The Suns were 2-5 in games Nash missed, 4-13 in games he missed from 05-08, and 11-26 in games he missed from 05-12. Some people tried to push the narrative that it was Amare driving their success a lot, but then he missed 2006 and the Suns won 54 games and made the WCFs with Boris Diaw as their 5. Some people tried to argue Marion was an underrated driver of their success, but then they moved him in 08 and still won 55 games. We can skip 09 as a useful sample, because that was the year Terry Porter tried to run the offense through a past his prime Shaq (which was a disaster), but once they stopped doing that in 2010 the Suns once more made the WCFs after winning 54 games, with a starting 5 that included discards like J.Rich, C.Frye and 37 year old Grant Hill and his bad ankles.

So Nash was clearly the biggest reason for the Suns turnaround. That said, he had more help than Duncan did in 05, which is another reason I can’t put him above TD. Amare, Marion, JJ and Q.Rich, with Barbosa off the bench, is a clearly superior support cast to what Duncan had, even considering the improved play of Parker and Manu (who was basically an all-nba talent at this point).

Shaq deserved a serious look in as MVP this year, and at the time I might have voted for him, but in hindsight it became clear Wade’s impact was very underrated. The Heat (understandably) fell off a cliff once Wade got hurt in the ECFs, and the following year it was increasingly clear as the playoffs unfolded that the Heat were Wade’s team. I debated putting Wade in the top 5, but I don’t think he was quite there yet when we look at his season holistically. Shaq really was much more motivated this year, and dropped some weight. I think he had a better 05 campaign than an 04 one.

Dirk doesn’t require much explanation, he continued to lead the Mavs to contention despite the loss of Nash, with a team that was more defensively focussed. KG is the one that will likely drive me crazy. After so many people had him #1 last year, he’s now going to be much lower for most people. Why? He was basically the same player. All that really changed was his team circumstances. Much like I wasn’t about to penalise Barkley when his team was too bad to make the playoffs, I don’t see why I should penalise KG.

HMs: Wade, T-Mac, R.Allen, B.Wallace, etc.

[AEnigma]

I will not be tallying ballots for this thread until next week. I will open the 2006 thread sometime over the weekend though.

[AEnigma]

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Ben Wallace
2. Tim Duncan
3. Yao Ming

I generally have Ben and Duncan split this 2002-07 period, and my first point of distinction tends to be playing time. This year… the Spurs narrowly survive the Pistons in Game 7 of the Finals, but Ben plays 570 more minutes than Duncan does… I think you could swing a different way if you feel there is a definite gap in defensive quality, but I tend to assess these two as extremely comparable year to year based on my interpretation of the various defensive impact metrics available to us (with both being consistently marked in the top three from 2003-06). I think Ben is a little more versatile, so I tend to give him extra marks in a “defensive peaks” comparison, but ultimately that has little to do with my intent to vote Ben as the DPoY from 2004-06.

The Rockets have been an above average (and usually good) defence ever since Yao arrived, and long-term RAPM is quite high on his defence (which I see as a useful way to separate the effect of having Dikembe as his backup). Potentially the league’s most imposing rim protector, setting a career high in blocks, block rate, and block percentage, although he does not rack up blocks the way someone like Camby does. This is the second-highest minute season of his career (after last year), and he fares reasonably well in the postseason.

Other candidates were Garnett (combination of missed postseason and generally a down defensive year from the previous few) or Shane Battier, whom I assess as the league’s best defensive non-big but do not believe is capable of the same constant impact you see from primary rim protectors given similar minute totals (and then his postseason also underwhelms).

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Steve Nash
2. Ray Allen
3. Dirk Nowitzki

Nash for me is an obvious #1 (as he will be the subsequent two years).

Spoiler:

If you watch nash suns they are sort of like a reverse motion system.

Instead of having a "static" guy on ball while everyone else cuts/screens the way a team like the warriors do. Nash pushes the pace and makes quick decisions to drive/shot/pass....and he often cancels mid action to improvise somethingh else as everyone else reacts to the advabtage he created

Think running into a leaning jump forward jumper (like a floater but in a 2-handed jumpshot motion) and either hitting it smoothly or throwing a perfect dime on the jump to a cutter who just saw nash do start his jumper and started cutting just in case he gets a pass

Or driving past a big, stopping to freeze the defend, put the big in jail with his back and doing a hand off 2 meters off the rim to a running stoudamire who quicly realized the chance for a hand off dunk

He was not -quite- curry/reggie off ball movement wise but even though he was a on-ball player he was almost always running until he gave up the ball

you rarely saw him walk up the ball slowly or run a slow set. He would always be applying constant pressure in some way and making consistently great quick reads for passing and scoring off the chaos he created

The motion thingh i mention is because diaw,richardson, grant hill, barbosa, marion amd even (and perhaps surprisingly, mainly) stoudamire would "read and react" to nash quickly and cut/spot timely and accurstely to nash moves and then do quick decisions to shoot/pass or drive after receiving his passes

The whole thingh is just so smooth and contradicts the idea that on-ball quarterbacks turn role players into nothingh but lob or 3-point finishers. The suns are a constant moving machine around nash on-ball play in a similar way warriors best offense is a constant movement machine around curry off ball threath

Where a chris paul is like peyton manning running perfectly executed sets, nash is more like a lamar jackson or patrick mahomes. He can run, pass, run pass and you never know which is coming as he is always moving.

That is the best way to describe nash, he is always moving, he just does it more on ball than curry and more than your usual ball handler

You dont create the arguably goat offense relative to era with "just" a 6 foot guard playing pick and roll as everyonr else spots up. Nash is not big enough to just do a lebron through teams and get to the paint to score nonstop. He is a bit too small for that. Instead he achieves this by creating openings consistently that all of his twammates or himself later in the play can exploit to score

Where lebron and curry always "start with white" so to speak. Aka curry and lebron sort of compromise the defense before the play even starts cause their shooting or driving threat is so big that teams react preventively to take that option away. They always play chess with 1 move advantage as far as compromising the defense goes

Nash instead doesnt cause either effect (maybe if he shot mpre 3's today?) As teams didnt guard his 3 as tightly as curry's and he obviously is not lebron going to the paint.

Instead he maximizes his skillset to the max exploiting every small advantage by pushing the pace, using his handles and size to sneak in the paint and put the defense in an awkward position to stop his passing and because he is a more gifted passer/decision maker than curry and even bron. He makes it work. He does thinghs then reacts mid move to the defense reaction and finds somethingh ovet and over.

His motor/agressiveness may be low key as valuable as his mind, handles or jumper. And all these 4 thinghs combine for a perfect package that wouldnt work nearly as well if only one of the 4 thinghs was lesser

When it came to throwing tight window passes, Nash was perhaps the best at doing so in NBA history. Nash was the most aggressive passer in NBA history, constantly trying to find high value shot opportunities for his teammates. Nash’s high risk passes resulted in high value shots such as layups, dunks, or open 3s. Nash wouldn’t be scared to make such high value passes and would relentlessly try to given the opportunity.

Watch on YouTube

But Nash did not rely on such tight, risky passes to create wide open opportunities. His scoring, shooting, and rim pressure already put defenses in a “pick your poison” situation. These types of passes found wide open layups for teammates like Amare, Marion, and even Diaw. Nash’s rim pressure as a small guard was unheard of and defenders were forced to close in on him whenever he drove to the basket. This freed up his teammates even more

Watch on YouTube

We see in this clip Nash driving to the paint and Duncan realizing this. Duncan has either two options: Give up a wide open layup to Nash or force Nash to find the connecting pass to Amare. Of course Duncan choses the former and Nash is then easily able to find the wide open layup pass.

Watch on YouTube

In this clip, we see the most basic form of offense from the 2000s suns, the Steve nash Amare pick and roll. What made this pick and roll so deadly was not only Nash’s ability to throw passes with such precision with either hand, but also his threat to shoot the midrange. We see in the clip that number 44 on the mavs was forced to come up on Nash as soon as Amare went for the rim. The mavs were willing to give up the mismatch of Terry on Amare just because of Nash’s threat to shoot. This allows for a wide open dunk for Amare.

Watch on YouTube

Nash’s playmaking wasn’t just deadly in the half court, it was superb in transition. In the clip above, we can see Nash instantly survey the floor the moment he gets the ball in transition. Nash would aggressively try to find the most quality looks for his teammates. This would result in Nash throwing some wild passes.

Watch on YouTube

;t=6s

In this clip, Nash aggressively looks for the best shot possible, which also happened to be the most difficult pass to make. Luckily, Nash got much better as a lob passer during his second stint with the suns. He could make lob passes while moving or while standing still.

Watch on YouTube

But Nash’s ultimate ability as a passer was his ability to prove around the paint to create shots. When Nash was probing around the paint, he would force a switch onto the opposing team’s big man, which created a huge mismatch for the opposing team. Once the big man was drawn out of the paint, Nash would aggressively find open layup passes in the paint.

Watch on YouTube

;pp=ygUhc3RldmUgbmFzaCBwaWNrIGFuZCByb2xsIG1pZHJhbmdl
At 0:18

Nash did not randomly become this amazing passer the moment he joined Phoenix in 2005. In Dallas while also leading the team to historical offensive heights, Nash was the primary creator, passer, and decision maker for the team, and was leading those Maverick teams in offensive load.

Many teams believed that Nash was “just a passer” and would dare him to beat them. And oh boy he did. Despite entering age 30 by his first MVP year in phoenix, Nash always had high acceleration and craftiness to finish around the basket. He was one of the most difficult rim finishers in the NBA and used both of his hands to make tough layups. He was able to controt his body in different directions to make tough paint shots and always had great touch and feel around the basket.

Watch on YouTube

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Nash loved his one footed floater which was usually jumped off with his right foot. He went to these using a pick and roll whenever defenders covered the roll man. Nash’s incredible touch around the rim caused this to be a go to shot for Nash. He was one of the most efficient rim finishers in the NBA.

Watch on YouTube

If Nash wasn’t in transition or in the pick and roll, he was mostly in isolation situations creating for himself or for his teammates. He became one of the best isolation scorers in the NBA, using head fakes and bursts of speed to blow by defenders. His quick, low to the ground crossovers always faked out defenders as they thought he was making a one handed pick and roll pass, which he always executed to perfection.

Watch on YouTube

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He was also an excellent scorer in transition. Due to his constant passing aggression, teams overplayed his teammates to a high degree giving Nash layups.

Watch on YouTube

;pp=ygUbc3RldmUgbmFzaCB0cmFuc2l0aW9uIGxheXVw

Nash’s main form of scoring was from his deadly shooting from both midrange and 3. Nash shot 50/40/90 4 times in his career while attempting around 4 threes at his peak. His midrange was especially lethal in the pick and roll when teams overplayed the roll man. Nash could very comfortably spot up to his midrange off the dribble while moving from both his left and right side.

Watch on YouTube

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Nash was also an elite pull up shooter from midrange. He could pull these in transition or in half court, although he preferred to do them in half court. Defenses would sometimes give him more space in fear of Nash burning them with his passing. Nash’s 3 point shot was most deadly in transition. He was able to set up very easily for pull up 3s, making them look like warm up shots. Nash also had a bit of range on his pull up 3s, being able to make them from 27 feet out.

Watch on YouTube

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The suns ran a high pick and roll with Nash all the time and Nash was very comfortable shooting 3s if the defense committed to the roll man. He had a very quick release and many teams at the time were not prepared for the high pick and roll. Nash and the suns were the first team to use this play consistently since Mark Price did in the late 80s and early 90s.

Watch on YouTube

;pp=ygUaU3RldmUgbmFzaCBwaWNrIGFuZCByb2xsIDM%3D
0:08-0:18.(I couldn’t find any short clips so I just had to use clips from a longer video on this specific point)

Shaq is top honourable mention; again, held back by missed time. I see an extremely clear top four this year in the regular season, plus Manu for his postseason brilliance… which is why I am surprised at the paucity of votes for Ray Allen. The Sonics were a comfortable second-best offence, and Ray maintained his regular season play through two rounds of the postseason much better than Dirk did. Recall that this is the year when McGrady gave Dirk fits and thoroughly outplayed him, and even against an underwhelming Suns’ defence, Dirk found himself limited (looking comparatively much worse than Duncan did against the same team).

Player of the Year

1. Steve Nash
2. Tim Duncan
3. Shaquille O’Neal
4. Kevin Garnett
5. Ben Wallace

Flipping Duncan and Nash. Not positive I would take that approach if you said I were the tiebreaker — pressure is a lot higher — but stakes are low enough here than I would rather award the player who signalled the start of a new era in basketball, oversaw one of the most impressive turnarounds in league history, won the most regular season games in the league, and reached the conference finals with a historic revenge series against another top five team. And even in the nicest analysis — STAT and Starbury were 8-10 together the prior season after going 44-37 together in 2003 — a 60-15 conference finalist is a massive leap (and distinctly much better than Duncan’s 45-16 record with Manu, although the healthy Spurs were more dominant by SRS and net rating, and that translated into the postseason). In a year where Duncan missed 16 games (more than any player I have backed as RPoY since Walton) and had a co-star performance reminiscent of the 2001 Lakers but without the accompanying total postseason dominance, Duncan marginally trails behind for me.

Shaq grabbed a lot of credit for Wade’s improvement and Eddie Jones’ continued defensive brilliance, but he was the best player on a conference finalist 1-seed, (rightly) came second in MVP voting, and was still (in the last year of) his prime. I see Garnett as the better talent at this point, but not by enough to establish a sufficient buffer against Shaq’s far more accomplished season. Still, Kevin Garnett won enough to have comfortably made the postseason in one conference, and I have him a full tier ahead of every other player this year.

Finally, recognising Ben for almost leading his team to a repeat. I feel a bit bad for Dirk, as this means I will only have him on my ballot four times, but hey, competitive league, and not a good look to be the second-best player in both postseason series.

[jjgp111292]

It's a shame the Cavs completely melted down after All-Star Break because I think LeBron was already well on his way top 5 before that.

People who weren't 13 years old in 2005 like me: what WAS the reason for that collapse, actually? The impression I got from listening to commentary during games was a mutiny towards Paul Silas and, quite frankly, jealousy from some of LeBron's teammates.

[penbeast0]

Best regular season team and best Ortg by a reasonably strong margin was Phoenix, with Seattle a close second in Ortg. Massive step up from the previous season with Amare playing a bit more, but Marion and Joe Johnson back full. Big difference is Nash over Marbury/Barbosa as Marbury changed teams halfway through 04. San Antonio had the 2nd best record tied with Miami, the best SRS, and won the title as Manu stepped up more but it was clearly Duncan's team.

Miami was led by Shaq and Wade but fell to Detroit in the ECF. Dallas was one game back with Dirk stepping up to take primacy rather than sharing the lead scoring role with Finley. Detroit was again a very successful ensemble team with Hamilton and Prince having good years to flesh out the Billups/Wallace/Wallace trio. Seattle, Houston, and Sacramento won 50 with Denver adding 49 to show the depth of the Western Conference.

Nash led in assists as well as getting the MVP, Ben Wallace got another DPOY, the points leader was Iverson and rebounding was Garnett. Garnett led the league in all the box score compilation stats with a mixed bag behind him.

Player of the Year:
1. Steve Nash -- Duncan may have been the best player but Nash had the biggest impact leading an amazing turnaround in Phoenix.
2. Tim Duncan
3. Kevin Garnett
4. Dirk Nowitzki
5. Shaquille O'Neal
Shoutout to Tmac, Wade, Carmelo, and yes, LeBron, for terrific seasons that I didn't mention.

[One_and_Done]

Best regular season team and best Ortg by a reasonably strong margin was Phoenix, with Seattle a close second in Ortg. Massive step up from the previous season with Amare playing a bit more, but Marion and Joe Johnson back full. Big difference is Nash over Marbury/Barbosa as Marbury changed teams halfway through 04. San Antonio had the 2nd best record tied with Miami, the best SRS, and won the title as Manu stepped up more but it was clearly Duncan's team.

Miami was led by Shaq and Wade but fell to Detroit in the ECF. Dallas was one game back with Dirk stepping up to take primacy rather than sharing the lead scoring role with Finley. Detroit was again a very successful ensemble team with Hamilton and Prince having good years to flesh out the Billups/Wallace/Wallace trio. Seattle, Houston, and Sacramento won 50 with Denver adding 49 to show the depth of the Western Conference.

Nash led in assists as well as getting the MVP, Ben Wallace got another DPOY, the points leader was Iverson and rebounding was Garnett. Garnett led the league in all the box score compilation stats with a mixed bag behind him.

Player of the Year:
1. Steve Nash -- Duncan may have been the best player but Nash had the biggest impact leading an amazing turnaround in Phoenix.
2. Tim Duncan
3. Kevin Garnett
4. Dirk Nowitzki
5. Shaquille O'Neal
Shoutout to Tmac, Wade, Carmelo, and yes, LeBron, for terrific seasons that I didn't mention.

I think there's some cognitive dissonance issues in saying Nash was more impactful than Duncan when Nash had the better support cast and still lost 1-4 against the Spurs, who played at a 63+ win pace in games with Duncan.

I agree that Manu became an all-nba star this year, and was huge in the playoffs, but it's worth noting that not only were the Spurs 8-8 without Duncan, they were 6-2 without Manu. Duncan was driving their winning for the most part, defense just doesn't show up on a stat sheet as much.

Nash had 2 guys who were at least all-nba calibre on his team, one of them an MVP candidate type of guy, and another who was an all-star talent in JJ. Even Q.Rich compares favourably to the talent of guys like Rasho/Nazr.

[penbeast0]

...Nash is #2 for me over Shaq. He took over a 29 win Suns team, and made them a 62 win powerhouse. Obviously he was not the only change; Amare only played 55 games as a rookie the previous year, and he improved as a player....

Actually, Amare was ROY two years prior, though he did only play 55 games in his sophomore season.

...
Nash had 2 guys who were at least all-nba calibre on his team, one of them an MVP candidate type of guy, and another who was an all-star talent in JJ. Even Q.Rich compares favourably to the talent of guys like Rasho/Nazr.

Nash had good talent around him but I wouldn't call Marion an MVP candidate type as he was not a guy who could create for himself; he needed a strong playmaker to be an efficient scorer. All-Star, even All-NBA type, ok. Amare wouldn't be All-NBA on any of those SSOL teams for me, his great scoring ability is matched by his abysmal defense and weak playmaking, I'd call him an All-Star type. You can see how the team didn't miss a beat in 2006 with Kurt Thomas and Boris Diaw in his spot, sliding down a bit only after Thomas gets injured as well.

[trelos6]

OPOY

1.Steve Nash. Best playmaker and passer in the NBA. Scored 17 pp75 on +7.7 rTS%, and led a team rOrtg of +8.4. Playoffs scoring improved to 22.4 pp75 on +8.6 rTS%.

2.Manu Ginobili. 21.9 pp75 on +8 rTS%. Team was a +1.4 rOrtg, but this was a defensive team. Playoffs he boosted scoring to 25.6 pp75 on +12 rTS%. He was actually a strong contender for OPOY, but Nash’s playmaking brilliance is too much.

3.Kevin Garnett. 23.6 pp75 on +3.8 rTS%. Team rOrtg of +2.1. Missing the playoffs hurts, but his team regressed badly, and Cassell was injured. Dirk would be here but he had a bad year from midrange. KG’s playmaking was still tremendous for a big.

DPOY

1.Tim Duncan. Yes, Spurs were stacked defensively. Duncan was the anchor.

2.Ben Wallace. Anchored the Pistons and slowed Duncan down greatly in the finals.

3.Kevin Garnett. Can we get this guy some help? A few more years in obscurity before he can be unleashed on a title team. Still, tremendous defensively.

POY

1.Tim Duncan. 24.7 pp75 on +1.1 rTS%. +2.7 OPIPM, +4.06 DPIPM. +6.76 PIPM. 18.7 Wins Added.

2.Kevin Garnett. +2.34 OPIPM, +1.17 DPIPM, +3.51 PIPM. 12.55 Wins Added. Yes, Wolves missed the playoffs. They were in a strong West, and had the 11th best SRS overall. Lots of weak teams in the East. Also, looking between 04 to 05 seasons, KG was more efficient, got to the line more, better FT%. Better REB%, Better AST%, Better STL%, worse BLK%, less scoring volume. I think he was better offensively, but worse defensively. Wolves were #6 on offense, with Cassell a shell of his former self.

3.Manu Ginobili. +4.4 OPIPM, +2.66 DPIPM, +7.06 PIPM. 18.52 Wins Added. Manu was a beast offensively, and a very good guard defender. Could have won FMVP. It was that close.

4.Steve Nash. OPOY. +5.46 OPIPM, -1.78 DPIPM, +3.69 PIPM. 12.73 Wins Added.

5.Shaquille O’Neal. 26.6 pp75 on +5.4 rTS%. +2.62 OPIPM, +1.7 DPIPM, +4.33 PIPM. 13.29 Wins Added

[Big NBA Fan]

This Nash MVP STILL really bothers me. Dirk and Shaq clearly did more with less talent.

Dirk won 58 games despite losing Steve in FA while putting up great scoring numbers on great efficiency without another All-Star on his team.

Shaq won 59 games putting up Prime Dwight Howard numbers, anchoring a Top 5 offense and defense despite very little help outside of Wade. I mean, Damon Jones, Udonis Haslem, and an almost-washed Eddie Jones as his supporting cast?!

The Lakers missed Shaq a hell of a lot more than the Mavericks missed Nash; the Lakers got two excellent players in return for Shaq in Odom and Butler, and still regressed from 56 wins to just 34 wins a year after Shaq led them to the Finals.

Dallas got better WITHOUT Nash. Nash only took his game to megastar level in the PS in 2005; he was nothing special in the RS. Amare, Marion, and JJ put up better numbers while the latter two were excellent defenders as well.

Nash was just at the right place at the right time. He only took his game to a megastar level in 05 PS and 06 and 07 RS. He got a HUGE boost from MDA's PG friendly system. Felton, Kendall Marshall, Jeremy Lin all had career numbers under MDA without the kind of line-up Nash had in 05. I know Nash is better than all of them, but it just shows how much help he had in a PG-friendly offense with an unbelievably talented line-up in 05 and 07.

Their struggles WITHOUT Nash from 05-07 says more about the lack of depth than it does about him; their back-up was Marcus Banks who was a complete scrub...the only PG who ever struggled under MDA. If the 05-07 Suns had Dragic like the 2010 Suns did, there wouldn't have been much of a drop-off.

The media kept on arguing that Matrix, STAT, JJ, Barbosa, Diaw, MDA, etc. were just products of Nash who would be bums without him, etc. Total nonsense, in retrospect.

MDA was a CP3 injury away from beating Steph/KD Warriors in 2018 WITHOUT Nash.

STAT was the MVP front runner in 2011 before Melo trade with Felton as his PG INSTEAD of Nash.

JJ became a perennial All-Star WITHOUT Nash in Atlanta.

Diaw was a huge difference maker for the 2013/2014 Spurs WITHOUT Nash.

Marion was already a 18/8 stat-sheet stuffing monster WITHOUT Nash and with Kidd/Marbury.

The media just downplayed and dismissed their contributions to justify Mr. Good Guy/Media Darling Nash winning MVP in 05 because Kobe/Colorado and Malice at the Palace were fresh in everybody's mind.

Nash DID NOT even make the All-Star team in 04 and barely improved his numbers in 05 and he wins an MVP out of it?! If that doesn't show how good his starting line-up was in 05, I don't know what does.

Amare MISSED 27 games in 04 and averaged 27 PPG in 05, so OF-COURSE their would be a huge improvement. MDA was a HUGE upgrade on Frank Johnson; coaching matters, ya know? Look how mediocre Nash was under Avery Johnson, Terry Porter, and Mike Brown. (All defensive minded coaches)

And JJ was playing out of position in 04 and was emerging as a star before emerging as a superstar in Atlanta.

So, yes, Nash helped and made a big difference, but he had PLENTY of help in 05...a lot more than 05 Shaq did.

Nash had an MVP-caliber talent in STAT, a perennial All-Star in JJ and one of the best stat-sheet stuffers in NBA history in Peak Matrix.

Who did Shaq have outside of 2nd year Wade? Haslem, Damon Jones, and Eddie Jones couldn't create offense for themselves or others. Shaq and Wade had to do EVERYTHING for them offensively.

Shaq ANCHORED a top 5 defense despite having a lousy defensive PG in Damon Jones and his PPG, FG%, and PER were significantly better than Nash's.

23/10/3/2/ on 60% shooting with a PER of 27 in only 34 MPG and only missing 7 games while Nash only averaged 14 PPG, was a bad defender on the # 18 defensive rated team, saw the Mavericks win 58 games WITHOUT him and was # 19 in PER at 22. Nothing to write home about.

MVP is a regular season award and Shaq deserved it more than Nash this season. As did Dirk.

If this was 06 or 07 Nash, it gets closer. But it's not.

Everybody craps on Derrick Rose's MVP despite putting up 25/4/8 for a 61 win team with less firepower than Nash's Suns while Nash had a WAAAAY better team around him and put up worse numbers than 2011 Rose. Steve had the easiest job in the world in 05....it's why his numbers were so mediocre.

The media was too busy kissing Nash's ass all the time because they WANTED him to win and did not give Matrix, JJ, MDA, STAT the credit they deserved this season.

They more than proved themselves without Nash while only Wade did anything without Shaq. Damon Jones and Eddie Jones were irrelevant after 05 and Haslem was a below average offensive player.

And the 05 Heat STILL only won 2 fewer games. Shaq did more with less talent. He put up 2011 Dwight numbers compared to 14 PPG Nash.

Total robbery. Dirk also deserved it more than Nash.

The ONLY bad thing about Shaq's 05 season were his struggles in the PS due to a severe thigh injury. If he and Wade don't get hurt, they're easily in the Finals that season.

Put JJ and Matrix in place of Damon and Eddie Jones, they're a 70 win team and easily NBA champs.

Nash stole this RS MVP from Shaq and Dirk. He only took his game to megastar level in 06 and 07.

Wrong decision this year by the media, in my opinion.

[Big NBA Fan]

05 RS is one of Shaq's most under-rated years. He wasn't the clear-cut best player like he was in 2000, but it was flawless nevertheless.

59 wins despite losing Odom and Butler.

Anchored Top 5 Offense and Defense.

Led league in FG%

Only missed 7 games

2nd in PER.

He and Dirk were CLEARLY more deserving than Nash this season.

[One_and_Done]

...Nash is #2 for me over Shaq. He took over a 29 win Suns team, and made them a 62 win powerhouse. Obviously he was not the only change; Amare only played 55 games as a rookie the previous year, and he improved as a player....

Actually, Amare was ROY two years prior, though he did only play 55 games in his sophomore season.

...
Nash had 2 guys who were at least all-nba calibre on his team, one of them an MVP candidate type of guy, and another who was an all-star talent in JJ. Even Q.Rich compares favourably to the talent of guys like Rasho/Nazr.

Nash had good talent around him but I wouldn't call Marion an MVP candidate type as he was not a guy who could create for himself; he needed a strong playmaker to be an efficient scorer. All-Star, even All-NBA type, ok. Amare wouldn't be All-NBA on any of those SSOL teams for me, his great scoring ability is matched by his abysmal defense and weak playmaking, I'd call him an All-Star type. You can see how the team didn't miss a beat in 2006 with Kurt Thomas and Boris Diaw in his spot, sliding down a bit only after Thomas gets injured as well.

No dude, Amare is the MVP candidate. Despite his injury plagued career he has MVP finishes of 6th, 9th, 9th, and 10th, an all-nba 1st team, and 4 all-nba 2nd teams. I agree that he's not a genuine MVP player, but he's closer to being an MVP than a run of the mill all-nba teamers, and that's not something Duncan had on his team. Having Nash helped of course, but Amare was a justified all-nba 2nd teamer in NY, was 9th in MVP that year, and his point guard was Raymond Felton for most of the year. That version of Amare was post microfracture, and paled compared to the 05 version of Amare that is basically peak Amare.

Marion made multiple all-nba teams and was as high as 10th in the MVP vote, and was a 4 time all-star. J.Johnson made 7 all-star teams. Even Q.Rich was a fantastic 5th starter, and they had Barbosa off the bench.

The 2006 Suns are a testament to Nash greatness, but you can hardly say they 'didn't miss a beat', they dropped 8 wins, and over 1.5 points in SRS.

[penbeast0]

No dude, Amare is the MVP candidate. Despite his injury plagued career he has MVP finishes of 6th, 9th, 9th, and 10th, an all-nba 1st team, and 4 all-nba 2nd teams. I agree that he's not a genuine MVP player, but he's closer to being an MVP than a run of the mill all-nba teamers, and that's not something Duncan had on his team. Having Nash helped of course, but Amare was a justified all-nba 2nd teamer in NY, was 9th in MVP that year, and his point guard was Raymond Felton for most of the year. That version of Amare was post microfracture, and paled compared to the 05 version of Amare that is basically peak Amare.

Marion made multiple all-nba teams and was as high as 10th in the MVP vote, and was a 4 time all-star. J.Johnson made 7 all-star teams. Even Q.Rich was a fantastic 5th starter, and they had Barbosa off the bench.

The 2006 Suns are a testament to Nash greatness, but you can hardly say they 'didn't miss a beat', they dropped 8 wins, and over 1.5 points in SRS.

I said didn't miss a beat before Kurt Thomas went down. Check the record at that point.

And Amare was regularly overrated; he was a good scorer but his deficiencies limit his effectiveness. I'm not saying Phoenix didn't have strong talent around Nash, they did. But if you really would vote Amare in ANY year as a top 5 player in the league, I would certainly disagree. I would take Marion over him pretty much every year of their career together.

Long as we are at it, I'd easily take prime Ginobili over prime Amare as well though this year Coach Pop is still figuring out how to unleash Manu.

[Djoker]

Duncan at #1 and then Nash, Shaq, Dirk, Garnett as most likely to make the ballot maybe in that order. Lakers struggle and even with Kobe for 66 games play at just 39-win pace. Not sure what happened with them this season. A good 7th in rORtg but 30th (dead last!) in rDRtg.

As for the MVP race, would still have Nash > Shaq. Amare, Marion, JJ is plenty of talent but Nash made the engine work. No Nash no party as simple as that.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

1 - Tim Duncan
2 - Steve Nash
3 - Kevin Garnett
4 - Lebron James
5 - Manu Ginobli

Seems like it was duh he's the best before he got injured and then he still wins against the team that swept Shaq, Kobe, and Malone playing hurt. Don't feel like you should just punish someone for getting unlucky like that. Nash with a crazy turnaround and is leading goat offenses and winning MVPS. I know KG's team sucks but his stats are as good as last year so I'm not gonna just be like wow best player in the league last year sucked because the team got worse.

We can say Lebron is top 5 now right? 27/7/7 and his true shooting is way better and the team has a winning record after winning 17 before he gets there. Shaq joins Miami and they get alot better but his stats kind of suck now. People are putting Manu but the spurs being awesome without him again makes me think a duncan teammate is just getting overrated again.

Defensive Player of the Year
1 - Ben Wallace
2 - Tim Duncan
3 - Kevin Garnett

Offensive Player of the Year
1 - Steve Nash
2 - Lebron James
3 - Shaq

[Narigo]

1. Tim Duncan-

2. Kevin Garnett- Arguably might be best player in regular season. He is notot to far off from his 03 and 04 season but his supporting cast was worse than the previous season. Speewell and Cassell was having contact disputes with the team. Cassell also miss some time as well and the former declined and was not signed to NBA team after this

3. Dirk Nowitzki-

4. Steve Nash- I'm not too high on Nash overall but they aren't any strong contenders for this spot. Probably the best offensive player this season but his team was admittedly deep

5. Shaquille O'Neal- Last prime season, he was very good in regular season. Once the playoffs started it was clear that Shaq began to show his age. And Wade was the better of the two


Would explain my dirk and Duncan at later time

[iggymcfrack]

I haven't been active and this project and I don't expect to have a vote, but I really think Manu deserves serious, serious consideration for #1 here. He led the league in the old 97-14 PI RAPM and he has much better box and on/off stats than Duncan for the postseason after having similar numbers in the regular season. He came up biggest in the biggest games too, getting better and better as the playoffs went on before completely dominating the Finals to narrowly get by Detroit.

[70sFan]

I haven't been active and this project and I don't expect to have a vote, but I really think Manu deserves serious, serious consideration for #1 here. He led the league in the old 97-14 PI RAPM and he has much better box and on/off stats than Duncan for the postseason after having similar numbers in the regular season. He came up biggest in the biggest games too, getting better and better as the playoffs went on before completely dominating the Finals to narrowly get by Detroit.

I certainly wouldn't say that Manu dominated the Finals. In fact, his performances in losses were quite ineffective and that was one of the reasons why the series was so close.

It's fair to call him the best Spurs player in that series, but it's not some kind of all-time performance.

[One_and_Done]

I haven't been active and this project and I don't expect to have a vote, but I really think Manu deserves serious, serious consideration for #1 here. He led the league in the old 97-14 PI RAPM and he has much better box and on/off stats than Duncan for the postseason after having similar numbers in the regular season. He came up biggest in the biggest games too, getting better and better as the playoffs went on before completely dominating the Finals to narrowly get by Detroit.

This seems like focussing too much on advanced stats.

The Spurs 8-8 without Duncan, they were 6-2 without Manu. That's not a huge sample, but it aligns with larger samples. From 03 to 05 the Spurs were 20-6 in games Manu missed, compared to 14-16 in games Duncan missed. In 06 the Spurs were also 12-5 without Manu. Manu was a great player, and very underrated in general, but you're clearly overrating him at #1. He was obviously 2nd fiddle to Duncan.

[Paulluxx9000]

Duncan
Nash
Dirk
Shaq
Lebron
He’s the best player in the league no doubt before he;s hurt. I’m not going to punish a man just for being banged up when they go and win anyway

Spoiler:

Tim Duncan. You could say he was already the best player. You could. Really. He’s that good. He can pop, he can pass, he can block, he can step out and stop. He needs a little time to figure it out but man, it’s only a little. KG, Shaq, Duncan. Side by side by side in their primes. That’s just incredible. I’m a Duncan over Hakeem guy. No he didn’t move as much. No he didn’t spin like a ballerina. But he was there, where he needed to be, whenever he needed to be, again and again and again and again and again. Bowens. Robinson. Manu. Tika Taka. Twin Towers. No matter what Duncan was there. On and off, placed in a straight jacket. Given little privilege over the guy seated at the end of he bench. Duncan didn’t get to be an icon. But he was always there all the same. He’s a monster to score on. He’s a monster to defend. Shaq is shaq but if there was no shaq Duncan would be next. Triples and doubles galore. And he can pass it, really pass it. Not just praying on neanderthal defensive schemes like the Jordans and Hakeems, but make for others when making is hard.
And you never want to try him at the basket. Unless you’re shaq. And like the tortoise vs the hare, even the quick and fast will run into trouble if they confuse Mr.Duncan as some statue. He’s not the full thing but he’s already pretty close. He’s the best of his era. And when he faces Malone he might already be BITW.
He’ll get better no doubt. He has work to do containing penetration. Work to do as using his unusual ball control to turn doubles into near triples and work to do timing when he jumps. But the key qualities are all there and the Spurs win with what was close to about any team ever as a 2 man team.

Nash, nash, nash, nash. What he lacks in Power he replaces with persistence. Constant pressure. He kept the ball closer to the hardwood better than anyone letting him negate defenders without a pass or a shot. And he passes like crazy. And he can shoot incredibly too. You put him on Stockton’s teams and they win a ring. Talking heads talk as if his offense was a regular season flash but he fried the Spurs offensively. It’s honestly part of why Nash has a claim to as the GOAT offensive player.

Dirk is close.

Spoiler:

Dallas has it’s man. Dirk Nowitski is tall and strong and can shoot incredibly well. Monstrous in the post efficient at the hole unrivalled in-between and accurate from deep. Dirk was a do-it-all at delivering baskets. His passing is just okay but just okay was enough with how scary defenses and centers found Dirk’s arsenal. You can’t confuse him with some incredible defender but he’s okay there too. He’s still figuring things out now but the full package is fantastic and it’s approaching fast.

Diesel’s last dominant year

Spoiler:

This is for the Diesel. He misses so many games and it just matter because wow. No one and I mean no one twists a defense like Shaq. Heavy but quick. Big and fast. You must double shaq. If not triple him. His only weakness is someone usually needs to bring him the ball but wow is it worth it. And now he’s learnt how to pass. The only knock is his defense and it’s a knock. So much so the old fossil of an offense chicago took out of it’s misery in the finals worked like a charm. But Duncan’s still a year off. And Jordan isn’t even a top 3 reason why Chicago is a perimeter buzzsaw.

Wade takes over next year but don’t get it twisted; In 2005, Miami runs on Diesel



Finally the kid from Akron. Chasing Jordan, but in Magic’s mold:

Spoiler:

Magic.
It’s easy to just look at the assists but if you go by the assists Isiah isn’t that far off. Here’s what Magic has that Isiah doesn’t. You have 5 guys there to make sure Magic or one of his teammates doesn’t score. But if there’s just a sliver of daylight. Just a few guys ever so slightly overextended…Magic might just render all 5 of those defenders moot in a flash. He has unbelievable ball control, he’s big and powerful at the basket, he uses his eyes better than anyone, and has a cannon for an arm. He can defeat your defense basically himself. He might not end the possession with a tough contested fadeaway, but he’ll do it his way. And there’s only one other guy you could ever say that about. And he isn’t going to be on anyone’s ballot until 2004.(unless you’re really into him and are a “High school LeBron was the level of an NBA All-Star” (real people that exist))
Finally, his brain. His advanced stats are ridiculous But that doesn’t tell you how someone makes his teammates better. Magic’s impact is ridiculous. Magic is the smartest player on the court every time he steps on it(yes, smarter than Bird). He knows where he needs to go and where you need to go and he’ll make sure you and him both go where you need to go at the time and place you both need to be there. And he does that better than anyone else and everyone who comes after, probably even including that 2004 guy(who’s better at a couple other things).

Great stats. Great tape. Undeniable impact. You play to win and no one ever makes you win like him (except for Bill Russell). But what’s been lost to time is the pressure. Not from just being so incredibly good, but because there was a type of good many wanted him to be:
https://youtu.be/mZE4NuH_uuA?t=271
One of the things that always rubbed me wrong is how people covered and still cover Lebron pre-miami. I think it's obvious for anyone who paid attention he was already one of the smartest players ever.
Yet many say things like "he didn't know how to win" (Lebron himself caved in to this one unfortunately), "he didn't know how to close", "he wasn't a game manager yet", while lambsting his almost always correct decision-making as soft, weak, or not "alpha"
And then I came across this; one of the most absurd collection of interview questions in history aimed at any basketball player from one of the most respected and, at least by reputation, class personified, Bob Costas.
We talk about what Russell and Kareem faced, but I don't know I've seen this seriously discussed with Lebron: How much did race factor into how Lebron was and still is covered. Times 100 when we speak of the part of his career before his first ring.
Many hate how he took control of his own future. How he took control of his teams. How he took control of offensive possessions. How he’s trying to take control of endless ridiculous narratives written up exclusively for him and him alone. I applaud it. Invalidating opponent defense. Controlling opponent offense. That’s on film. But entering the most negative environment almost any player has ever entered with teammates and anchors alike chomping at Hummers and Tatoos to see him fail; and forcing all of them to shut up? Chosen one indeed.
20 years old and he already has Cleveland winning despite it all. And he’s just getting started. 20 years later and he’s not even finished.