How bout that AB!

[eyriq]

Rookie SGA: 27 MPG with 11/3/3 on 48/37/80 splits with 1.7 TOV & 1.7 stocks, -0.9 OBPM, 0.4 DBPM, -1.9 OnCourt, -6.4 On-Off

Sophomore AB: 24 MPG with 9/3/4 on 42/27/74 splits with 2.3 TOV & 1.6 stocks, -3.6 OBPM, 1.1 DBPM, -1.0 OnCourt, -7.4 On-Off

Sophomore Livingston: 25 MPG with 6/3/5 on 43/13/69 splits with 1.8 TOV & 1.3 stocks, -2.6 OBPM, 0.7 DBPM, -1.5 OnCourt, -5.4 On-Off

Sophomore Suggs: 24 MPG with 10/3/3 on 42/33/72 splits with 1.8 TOV & 1.8 stocks, -1.8 OBPM, 0.8 DBPM, -2.4 OnCourt, 0.6 On-Off

Baby SGA? Defense is on schedule, playmaking is ok but too many turnovers, and shooting efficiency needs work. Seems to be ahead of Livingston. Very similar to Suggs.

[Residual-Heat]

Id be happy with a Josh Hart level player. Less rebounding, slighlty better offense.

[The-Stallion70]

I dont understand the fascination with AB. Plays good defense.....and that's as big as his upside goes. Doesnt have the ball handling for a PG, cannot sink a jumpshot to save his life, and turns it over at an alarming high rate. Im sure he will improve as just 20yo but if the opportunity came to upgrade the roster, would not hesitate to include him. He will likely end up a solid rotation player but nothing we will regret trading Imo

ABs' problem is not taking open shots, picking up his dribble, and not attacking the rim. I don't think it's his shooting.

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Sounds like Elfrid

[Idiosyncratic]

Id be happy with a Josh Hart level player. Less rebounding, slighlty better offense.

Josh Hart might be the best role player in the league. But I agree, do-it-all supercharged role player is AB's most likely "good" outcome.

Not saying he will hit a good outcome, but if he does that's probably the most likely. I think there's a chance he could be primary playmaker or even a solid scorer that gets to the line quite a bit too, but see those as less likely to happen, though still possible!

[eyriq]

Id be happy with a Josh Hart level player. Less rebounding, slighlty better offense.

Josh Hart might be the best role player in the league. But I agree, do-it-all supercharged role player is AB's most likely "good" outcome.

Not saying he will hit a good outcome, but if he does that's probably the most likely. I think there's a chance he could be primary playmaker or even a solid scorer that gets to the line quite a bit too, but see those as less likely to happen, though still possible!

AB's main limiting factors are turnovers and shooting efficiency. Free throw rate gives me a lot of hope, though.

[zaymon]

Id be happy with a Josh Hart level player. Less rebounding, slighlty better offense.

Josh Hart might be the best role player in the league. But I agree, do-it-all supercharged role player is AB's most likely "good" outcome.

Not saying he will hit a good outcome, but if he does that's probably the most likely. I think there's a chance he could be primary playmaker or even a solid scorer that gets to the line quite a bit too, but see those as less likely to happen, though still possible!

AB's main limiting factors are turnovers and shooting efficiency. Free throw rate gives me a lot of hope, though.

low skill level, low self confidence... very good defender.

[Bensational]

Josh Hart might be the best role player in the league. But I agree, do-it-all supercharged role player is AB's most likely "good" outcome.

Not saying he will hit a good outcome, but if he does that's probably the most likely. I think there's a chance he could be primary playmaker or even a solid scorer that gets to the line quite a bit too, but see those as less likely to happen, though still possible!

AB's main limiting factors are turnovers and shooting efficiency. Free throw rate gives me a lot of hope, though.

low skill level, low self confidence... very good defender.

Add - very coachable. He was praised for his offseason work for a reason. I think that’s why they will continue to gamble on him learning to improve both skill and confidence.

You see how much the two go hand in hand with AB, too. On the nights he is cooking he’s much more aggressive and daring with his moves. On the nights he gets intimidated or embarrassed with a big block he shuts down and plays super conservatively.

[RichCollab]

Josh Hart might be the best role player in the league. But I agree, do-it-all supercharged role player is AB's most likely "good" outcome.

Not saying he will hit a good outcome, but if he does that's probably the most likely. I think there's a chance he could be primary playmaker or even a solid scorer that gets to the line quite a bit too, but see those as less likely to happen, though still possible!

AB's main limiting factors are turnovers and shooting efficiency. Free throw rate gives me a lot of hope, though.

low skill level, low self confidence... very good defender.

Low skill level? Are you serious?

[SHAQ32]

Elfrid Payton was better than Black

[eyriq]

Elfrid Payton was better than Black

The story with Elfrid was that his playmaking couldn't compensate for his poor shooting and mediocre defense. AB is better on defense, is improving his playmaking, and is a better shooter when looking at true shooting percentage. AB also gets to the line at a better rate, which is huge for offensive upside, especially if AB can continue to improve his free throw shooting.

Stats are per 100 possessions to normalize for MPG

Rookie AB: 13/6/4 on 47/39/61 shooting splits; 56 TS%; 2.4 TOV; 2.4 STOCKS; -3.8 OBPM, 0.8 DBPM; .324 FTr
Rookie Elf: 15/7/11 on 43/26/55 shooting splits; 46 TS%; 4.2 TOV; 3.3 STOCKS; -1.5 OBPM, 0.3 DBPM; .302 FTr

Soph AB: 18/6/8 on 41/27/75 shooting splits; 51 TS%; 4.7 TOV; 3.3 STOCKS; -3.7 OBPM, 1.1 DBPM; .357 FTr
Soph Elf: 18/6/11 on 44/33/59 shooting splits; 48 TS%; 4.1 TOV; 2.6 STOCKS; -0.7 OBPM, -0.6 DBPM; .260 FTr

[pepe1991]

Elfrid myth that he was great defender was held for 3 years and that one article that exposed how all of his defensive mistakes somehow ended up being Vuc fault, according to fans, even during times when Vuc didn't play

No, Black ain't Payton ( thank God). But goes without saying his offense needs to be way, way, way more advanced in order for him to be ball hanlder, point guard, or have any role on serious offense.

[Skybox]

Elfrid Payton was better than Black

The story with Elfrid was that his playmaking couldn't compensate for his poor shooting and mediocre defense. AB is better on defense, is improving his playmaking, and is a better shooter when looking at true shooting percentage. AB also gets to the line at a better rate, which is huge for offensive upside, especially if AB can continue to improve his free throw shooting.

Stats are per 100 possessions to normalize for MPG

Rookie AB: 13/6/4 on 47/39/61 shooting splits; 56 TS%; 2.4 TOV; 2.4 STOCKS; -3.8 OBPM, 0.8 DBPM; .324 FTr
Rookie Elf: 15/7/11 on 43/26/55 shooting splits; 46 TS%; 4.2 TOV; 3.3 STOCKS; -1.5 OBPM, 0.3 DBPM; .302 FTr

Soph AB: 18/6/8 on 41/27/75 shooting splits; 51 TS%; 4.7 TOV; 3.3 STOCKS; -3.7 OBPM, 1.1 DBPM; .357 FTr
Soph Elf: 18/6/11 on 44/33/59 shooting splits; 48 TS%; 4.1 TOV; 2.6 STOCKS; -0.7 OBPM, -0.6 DBPM; .260 FTr

To be fair, I don’t really like “per 100” when one of them, if I recall, was starting and a core contributor right away…while AB was playing spot minutes against reserves (AB was either “held back” or “protected “ depending on your viewpoint )

[basketballRob]

Elfrid Payton was better than Black

The story with Elfrid was that his playmaking couldn't compensate for his poor shooting and mediocre defense. AB is better on defense, is improving his playmaking, and is a better shooter when looking at true shooting percentage. AB also gets to the line at a better rate, which is huge for offensive upside, especially if AB can continue to improve his free throw shooting.

Stats are per 100 possessions to normalize for MPG

Rookie AB: 13/6/4 on 47/39/61 shooting splits; 56 TS%; 2.4 TOV; 2.4 STOCKS; -3.8 OBPM, 0.8 DBPM; .324 FTr
Rookie Elf: 15/7/11 on 43/26/55 shooting splits; 46 TS%; 4.2 TOV; 3.3 STOCKS; -1.5 OBPM, 0.3 DBPM; .302 FTr

Soph AB: 18/6/8 on 41/27/75 shooting splits; 51 TS%; 4.7 TOV; 3.3 STOCKS; -3.7 OBPM, 1.1 DBPM; .357 FTr
Soph Elf: 18/6/11 on 44/33/59 shooting splits; 48 TS%; 4.1 TOV; 2.6 STOCKS; -0.7 OBPM, -0.6 DBPM; .260 FTr

To be fair, I don’t really like “per 100” when one of them, if I recall, was starting and a core contributor right away…while AB was playing spot minutes against reserves (AB was either “held back” or “protected “ depending on your viewpoint )

AB has already proven to be a better shooter than Elfrid, and he's still 20. Elfrid just never learned to shoot.

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[JBSouthpaw]

Elfrid myth that he was great defender was held for 3 years and that one article that exposed how all of his defensive mistakes somehow ended up being Vuc fault, according to fans, even during times when Vuc didn't play

No, Black ain't Payton ( thank God). But goes without saying his offense needs to be way, way, way more advanced in order for him to be ball hanlder, point guard, or have any role on serious offense.

Agreed. Payton also played 4 years of college ball.

[eyriq]

Elfrid myth that he was great defender was held for 3 years and that one article that exposed how all of his defensive mistakes somehow ended up being Vuc fault, according to fans, even during times when Vuc didn't play

No, Black ain't Payton ( thank God). But goes without saying his offense needs to be way, way, way more advanced in order for him to be ball hanlder, point guard, or have any role on serious offense.

AB's offense leaves much to be desired, you'll get no argument from me there.

[drsd]

Elfrid myth that he was great defender was held for 3 years and that one article that exposed how all of his defensive mistakes somehow ended up being Vuc fault, according to fans, even during times when Vuc didn't play

No, Black ain't Payton ( thank God). But goes without saying his offense needs to be way, way, way more advanced in order for him to be ball hanlder, point guard, or have any role on serious offense.

And-1

Right now, Black looks to be the long-term replacement of Harris, when he migrates off this team (this off-season?).

That kind of player is a good, not great, #6. But to be fair, the same can be said for Isaac at #6. And at least Black not a Bamba-6.

[three3d]

https://youtu.be/JuFugmy2Xlw?si=tKt3ppRB-xXL1Xn0

AB’s dad Terry Black looked to be a high flyer for Baylor back in 2001. His dad was only 6’5” I believe so AB has 2-3 inches more height but his dad definitely had a more solid build. I think that’s where AB needs to focus this summer, he needs to put on some muscle badly. I don’t think overall his speed or handles will be his biggest strength but if you can combine that speed and handles now with more muscle you have something to work with and on.

[Fortune Teller]

We're almost at the halfway point of Black's second season. His minutes are up from his rookie year and his shooting has regressed.

FG%
2023-24 46.6%
2024-25 40.3%

3PT%
2023-24 39.4%
2024-25 25.9%

His assist/turnover ratio also remains pretty bad at 3.5/2.1.

Jett, the other "lottery pick" that should've been traded for something we need, has improved his shooting slightly but it's still abysmal.

FG%
2023-24 33.3%
2024-25 38.1%

3PT%
2023-24 28.0%
2024-25 30.7%

Imagine if Welt had traded one or both of these picks for a legitimate PG or someone who can shoot. The Magic are the worst shooting team in the entire league and this is what Welt did with two lottery picks?

[JoshuaPotter]

We're almost at the halfway point of Black's second season. His minutes are up from his rookie year and his shooting has regressed.

FG%
2023-24 46.6%
2024-25 40.3%

3PT%
2023-24 39.4%
2024-25 25.9%

His assist/turnover ratio also remains pretty bad at 3.5/2.1.

Jett, the other "lottery pick" that should've been traded for something we need, has improved his shooting slightly but it's still abysmal.

FG%
2023-24 33.3%
2024-25 38.1%

3PT%
2023-24 28.0%
2024-25 30.7%

Imagine if Welt had traded one or both of these picks for a legitimate PG or someone who can shoot. The Magic are the worst shooting team in the entire league and this is what Welt did with two lottery picks?

I 100% share all your disappointment.

Black and Howard are either not ready for the roles based on injuries or they are potential busts for their pick. Black specifically.

Black being injured hasn't helped his campaign, and his ability to create for himself has plummeted. This to me is the effect of Franz + Paolo missing at the least. At the same time, this is also why a player of Coles mentality thrives because he generally speaking keeps going when life gets tough with the exception of last season, and the start of the season where he admitted he was playing like trash.

I'd argue Cole still is, but someone has to have the mentality of "yes, ill go put ball in hole coach" something that plays to Coles only strength.

[JoshuaPotter]

Our guy Black with everything going on this season has apparently lost his spot or is playing through injury. Do we know which it is?

I have seen his body language NOT be very mature in a few highlights during the injuries and I cannot help but say that he has done this to himself much like Cole has. Instead of "put me in coach ill rise to the occasion" he has been lost and folded like lawn chair.

Sad, he has all the tools minus a great jump shot. Of which I won't hold against him until KCP returns to his normal %. Shooting is down for the entire team.