Patrick Williams' Dunking Issues

[Ice Man]

Pat is not the only reason that I have largely ceased to watch the Bulls, but he is the single largest reason.

Pat Williams - 13 points, 5.5 rebounds per 36 minutes, 53% TS%
Jalen Smith - 19 points, 13 rebounds per 36 minutes, 59% TS%

If the Bulls are playing to win, start Jalen. If they are playing to lose, move Zach and Vuc. But they haven't selected either path. They play Zach and Vuc because they still have them, and they start Pat on a forlorn mission of justifying their #4 selection from, I kid you not, summer 2020. That is a DEEPLY sunk cost.

Not Pat's fault, he's not the one who puts himself in the starting lineup. I have no problem with him, other than he's not a particularly good or memorable player. My problem is with the GM/coach, who treat me as if I'm a fool.

[sco]

The Bulls training camp roster has Pat listed at 6'7 231. On the opening night roster he's at 6'8 235.

Good find. Those are the real numbers. 235 was my guess. That's at least 15 pounds too much IMO.

Side note: THT at 257 is otherworldly.

Coby is at 210. More than Zach and Lonzo.

Our 2 struggling prospects both seem overweight.

Coby's hair must weigh 10 lbs. Seriously, you can say Coby is bulked up too much and it slowed him down, but it's hard to see any fat on that guy. That said, if Coby becomes a stocky strong guard who gets good at bullying his way to the basket in the paint, I'd be ok with that. He needs to get a bit craftier at getting his shot off.

[kodo]

Good find. Those are the real numbers. 235 was my guess. That's at least 15 pounds too much IMO.

Side note: THT at 257 is otherworldly.

Coby is at 210. More than Zach and Lonzo.

Our 2 struggling prospects both seem overweight.

Coby's hair must weigh 10 lbs. Seriously, you can say Coby is bulked up too much and it slowed him down, but it's hard to see any fat on that guy. That said, if Coby becomes a stocky strong guard who gets good at bullying his way to the basket in the paint, I'd be ok with that. He needs to get a bit craftier at getting his shot off.

Does seem like the weight is added muscle but it might have affected his stamina. He remarked how he's tired...it's not even Feb yet, Coby is 24, and he plays only 32 mpg and it's not like he's playing much defense.

[sco]

Coby is at 210. More than Zach and Lonzo.

Our 2 struggling prospects both seem overweight.

Coby's hair must weigh 10 lbs. Seriously, you can say Coby is bulked up too much and it slowed him down, but it's hard to see any fat on that guy. That said, if Coby becomes a stocky strong guard who gets good at bullying his way to the basket in the paint, I'd be ok with that. He needs to get a bit craftier at getting his shot off.

Does seem like the weight is added muscle but it might have affected his stamina. He remarked how he's tired...it's not even Feb yet, Coby is 24, and he plays only 32 mpg and it's not like he's playing much defense.

IDK, I think it is easy to confuse Coby putting effort in on defense vs. being effective as a defender.

[nekorajo]

This is the least I've watched this team since Starks was here. You can't tell me you're serious about winning if you're not serious about rebounding. You can't tell me you're serious about rebounding if you're starting Patrick Williams at PF. You can't tell me you're serious about tanking for the draft if you don't move Zach and Vuc. Patrick Williams is not a four, at least not a starting four. I've been saying this for at least 2 years now. I don't get why Donovan keeps starting him and why AK refuses to upgrade the power forward position.

Regarding his missed dunks, I expect him to be a below average dunker in traffic. He doesn't have the heart or the focus to consistently finish. Regarding his other missed dunks, see the previous sentence.

Also, it looks like he has a hitch in his shot now. I remember he released one shot so badly against Indiana in the first quarter that the Indiana commentator reacted before the shot bricked away. This new hitch is a sign of a lack of discipline and/or confidence in my opinion... which would also explain the missed dunks.

[The Box Office]

2nd round talent. That's where I had him when I scouted him. I didn't see any ball skills. He's not even great defensively.

Just poor awful scouting on AKME's part. They get an F.

[MrSparkle]

I’m afraid if I say it, it’ll become true… but this 5y guaranteed Pat deal is probably going to be the worst contract in Bulls history.

Robinson - 5y around MLE

Wallace - moved halfway for what ended up being a half decent recovery trade (Paxson’s specialty), and helped atleast make a 2nd rd run

Boozer - amnestied, however he did help us to 4 playoff appearances

Felicio - total waste of time and money, but only 4y

Pat - Somewhere between ERob and Felicio, but richer deal (inflation considered). He’s 50% more than the MLE, whereas the other 2 were barely above it. That 5th year guaranteed is going to be brutal if Pat doesn’t improve.

Vuc trade: strike 1.
Lauri dump: strike 2.
PW extension: strike 3.

The rest of the stuff I see both ways, but these 3 moves are blatant blunders. Honorable mentions for Terry pick, Zach extension, and sitting through deadlines instead of taking picks for Caruso, Drummond, etc.

[sco]

I’m afraid if I say it, it’ll become true… but this 5y guaranteed Pat deal is probably going to be the worst contract in Bulls history.

Robinson - 5y around MLE

Wallace - moved halfway for what ended up being a half decent recovery trade (Paxson’s specialty), and helped atleast make a 2nd rd run

Boozer - amnestied, however he did help us to 4 playoff appearances

Felicio - total waste of time and money, but only 4y

Pat - Somewhere between ERob and Felicio, but richer deal (inflation considered). He’s 50% more than the MLE, whereas the other 2 were barely above it. That 5th year guaranteed is going to be brutal if Pat doesn’t improve.

Vuc trade: strike 1.
Lauri dump: strike 2.
PW extension: strike 3.

The rest of the stuff I see both ways, but these 3 moves are blatant blunders. Honorable mentions for Terry pick, Zach extension, and sitting through deadlines instead of taking picks for Caruso, Drummond, etc.

Meh, if that's their worst contract mistake, not so bad. BTW, where's Ball?

[MrSparkle]

I’m afraid if I say it, it’ll become true… but this 5y guaranteed Pat deal is probably going to be the worst contract in Bulls history.

Robinson - 5y around MLE

Wallace - moved halfway for what ended up being a half decent recovery trade (Paxson’s specialty), and helped atleast make a 2nd rd run

Boozer - amnestied, however he did help us to 4 playoff appearances

Felicio - total waste of time and money, but only 4y

Pat - Somewhere between ERob and Felicio, but richer deal (inflation considered). He’s 50% more than the MLE, whereas the other 2 were barely above it. That 5th year guaranteed is going to be brutal if Pat doesn’t improve.

Vuc trade: strike 1.
Lauri dump: strike 2.
PW extension: strike 3.

The rest of the stuff I see both ways, but these 3 moves are blatant blunders. Honorable mentions for Terry pick, Zach extension, and sitting through deadlines instead of taking picks for Caruso, Drummond, etc.

Meh, if that's their worst contract mistake, not so bad. BTW, where's Ball?

Well, probably 2nd worst to Rose's if we're counting debilitating injuries that happened after the deal.

I can't hold a GM accountable for season/career-altering injuries (ACLs, heels, meniscus transplants, back surgeries) unless the player already had a history of them happening (i.e. Embiid, Zion, Zach, MPJ, etc.) -- still a good signing at the time, TBH. I can't lie - if Zion/Embiid were UFAs and Bulls could sign them, I believe I (and 90% of GMs and fans) would go ahead and sign them to max deals... ideally with some clauses... As far as I recall, while regularly having small sprains and tweaks, Lonzo was less injury prone in his first 4y than those two.

But 80/4 for a guy who was on track to DPOY candidate, All-Defensive Team, possibly MIP and maybe even all-star if Bulls kept their top-3 seeding... Hard to call that a bad deal (same with maxing the youngest MVP in history, who happened to tear his knee twice and go through some mental setbacks), besides for the unforeseen circumstances of a 24yo being told he might need to medically retire (and then the first comeback ever from a meniscus transplant). That's just **** luck!

Paying 90/5 to a dude averaging 10/5/1 with the most lethargic game and a bunch of negative on-court numbers, in a dead FA market with few teams having major cap space... Is just plain dumb!! The only teams that had cap to match Bulls' offer were the Spurs, Sixers, Pistons, Magic, Thunder, Jazz... Half of these had more ambition plans... And there were more proven UFAs on the board (Hartenstein, George, Demar, Tobias, Klay, KCP).... I don't know why they didn't just let him get a RFA offer. It's crazy. I believe Ainge or some other GM spooked the Bulls and made them think they're preparing an unaffordable contract, and Bulls fell for the bluff.

[SHO'NUFF]

The thing is Patrick Williams was never good to begin with. Never showed flashes that would make you think he would be very good one day. Any average NBA player can go off here and there.... and that's who he is, an average NBA player. A middle-class Keith Bogans.

AK is a for giving him that contract. Props to PWill for signing it.

[Ice Man]

K is a for giving him that contract.

I'd have to hunt down that thread, but I'm pretty sure that the consensus on this board was to re-sign Pat.

As for Ball, ironically he was AK's best signing -- a rapidly improving player who was en route to being outright good, but the rest of the league hadn't quite figured that out yet. And then he became AK's worst signing. Well, that's not a GM's fault.

I've never been a fan of Pat, but I can't say that was AK's worst decision. I gotta go with the Vuc trade, even though I liked it at the time. What can I say? I was a dolt. But so was AK and unlike me, he was paid to make that call.

[dougthonus]

I’m afraid if I say it, it’ll become true… but this 5y guaranteed Pat deal is probably going to be the worst contract in Bulls history.

Robinson - 5y around MLE

Wallace - moved halfway for what ended up being a half decent recovery trade (Paxson’s specialty), and helped atleast make a 2nd rd run

Boozer - amnestied, however he did help us to 4 playoff appearances

Felicio - total waste of time and money, but only 4y

Pat - Somewhere between ERob and Felicio, but richer deal (inflation considered). He’s 50% more than the MLE, whereas the other 2 were barely above it. That 5th year guaranteed is going to be brutal if Pat doesn’t improve.

Pat's deal will average out to just a shade over MLE over the life of it. He'll be below MLE in year 5 if he picks up the option, so I think it's probably going to be like say 115% of the MLE. Pat also provides some value, even if he's not great.

Wallace I would say is the worst contract. We didn't do a good recovery trade, we moved him for Larry Hughes whom was every bit as much a disaster as Wallace was.

Robinson was also worse in that he was more worthless as a player at effectively the same relative cost (a tiny bit cheaper). Felicio was also right about MLE if I'm remembering correctly, so I think that one is also worse as he also gave you nothing.

I'd say those 3 deals are worse than I would project Pat to be over his deal (though it's only year 1, maybe he completely regresses). Boozer, I agree, he helped us get to the best record in the league twice and was an important part of that team. May have ended poorly but the results early were important and deeply meaningful.

When you look at that list of "bad contracts", pretty great how few of them we've had.

[League Circles]

K is a for giving him that contract.

I'd have to hunt down that thread, but I'm pretty sure that the consensus on this board was to re-sign Pat.

As for Ball, ironically he was AK's best signing -- a rapidly improving player who was en route to being outright good, but the rest of the league hadn't quite figured that out yet. And then he became AK's worst signing. Well, that's not a GM's fault.

I've never been a fan of Pat, but I can't say that was AK's worst decision. I gotta go with the Vuc trade, even though I liked it at the time. What can I say? I was a dolt. But so was AK and unlike me, he was paid to make that call.

I definitely don't recall most people wanting to re-sign Patrick, at least not to a 5 year deal.

[League Circles]

I’m afraid if I say it, it’ll become true… but this 5y guaranteed Pat deal is probably going to be the worst contract in Bulls history.

Robinson - 5y around MLE

Wallace - moved halfway for what ended up being a half decent recovery trade (Paxson’s specialty), and helped atleast make a 2nd rd run

Boozer - amnestied, however he did help us to 4 playoff appearances

Felicio - total waste of time and money, but only 4y

Pat - Somewhere between ERob and Felicio, but richer deal (inflation considered). He’s 50% more than the MLE, whereas the other 2 were barely above it. That 5th year guaranteed is going to be brutal if Pat doesn’t improve.

Pat's deal will average out to just a shade over MLE over the life of it. He'll be below MLE in year 5 if he picks up the option, so I think it's probably going to be like say 115% of the MLE. Pat also provides some value, even if he's not great.

Wallace I would say is the worst contract. We didn't do a good recovery trade, we moved him for Larry Hughes whom was every bit as much a disaster as Wallace was.

Robinson was also worse in that he was more worthless as a player at effectively the same relative cost (a tiny bit cheaper). Felicio was also right about MLE if I'm remembering correctly, so I think that one is also worse as he also gave you nothing.

I'd say those 3 deals are worse than I would project Pat to be over his deal (though it's only year 1, maybe he completely regresses). Boozer, I agree, he helped us get to the best record in the league twice and was an important part of that team. May have ended poorly but the results early were important and deeply meaningful.

When you look at that list of "bad contracts", pretty great how few of them we've had.

Good point on Wallace vs Hughes.

IMO, the worst contract we've had might be Dwyane Wade. Just a terrible huge deal for an outright bad player by that point and an unimaginably bad fit that basically destroyed our franchise.

[dougthonus]

IMO, the worst contract we've had might be Dwyane Wade. Just a terrible huge deal for an outright bad player by that point and an unimaginably bad fit that basically destroyed our franchise.

50M for 1 year of mediocre Dwyane Wade was really bad.

I'd say the only caveats around that was the deal was made in the cap spike year, they called all the deals handed out that year the sour 16s. They were almost all universally terrible because teams had to spend the money. I'm glad we just didn't do 4 years on someone worthless which is what a lot of teams did.

Still, that deal was awful, and it was pretty obvious it would be awful in the moment.

[GoBlue72391]

K is a for giving him that contract.

I'd have to hunt down that thread, but I'm pretty sure that the consensus on this board was to re-sign Pat.

As for Ball, ironically he was AK's best signing -- a rapidly improving player who was en route to being outright good, but the rest of the league hadn't quite figured that out yet. And then he became AK's worst signing. Well, that's not a GM's fault.

I've never been a fan of Pat, but I can't say that was AK's worst decision. I gotta go with the Vuc trade, even though I liked it at the time. What can I say? I was a dolt. But so was AK and unlike me, he was paid to make that call.

I definitely don't recall most people wanting to re-sign Patrick, at least not to a 5 year deal.

Here's the thread in question: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2391058&start=20

[dougthonus]

K is a for giving him that contract.

I'd have to hunt down that thread, but I'm pretty sure that the consensus on this board was to re-sign Pat.

As for Ball, ironically he was AK's best signing -- a rapidly improving player who was en route to being outright good, but the rest of the league hadn't quite figured that out yet. And then he became AK's worst signing. Well, that's not a GM's fault.

I've never been a fan of Pat, but I can't say that was AK's worst decision. I gotta go with the Vuc trade, even though I liked it at the time. What can I say? I was a dolt. But so was AK and unlike me, he was paid to make that call.

I definitely don't recall most people wanting to re-sign Patrick, at least not to a 5 year deal.

I think most people wanted to resign Pat, but weren't thrilled that we proactively made him an offer vs playing the market and were the only team in this cycle to go 5th year PO.

[Dan Z]

I’m afraid if I say it, it’ll become true… but this 5y guaranteed Pat deal is probably going to be the worst contract in Bulls history.

Robinson - 5y around MLE

Wallace - moved halfway for what ended up being a half decent recovery trade (Paxson’s specialty), and helped atleast make a 2nd rd run

Boozer - amnestied, however he did help us to 4 playoff appearances

Felicio - total waste of time and money, but only 4y

Pat - Somewhere between ERob and Felicio, but richer deal (inflation considered). He’s 50% more than the MLE, whereas the other 2 were barely above it. That 5th year guaranteed is going to be brutal if Pat doesn’t improve.

Pat's deal will average out to just a shade over MLE over the life of it. He'll be below MLE in year 5 if he picks up the option, so I think it's probably going to be like say 115% of the MLE. Pat also provides some value, even if he's not great.

Wallace I would say is the worst contract. We didn't do a good recovery trade, we moved him for Larry Hughes whom was every bit as much a disaster as Wallace was.

Robinson was also worse in that he was more worthless as a player at effectively the same relative cost (a tiny bit cheaper). Felicio was also right about MLE if I'm remembering correctly, so I think that one is also worse as he also gave you nothing.

I'd say those 3 deals are worse than I would project Pat to be over his deal (though it's only year 1, maybe he completely regresses). Boozer, I agree, he helped us get to the best record in the league twice and was an important part of that team. May have ended poorly but the results early were important and deeply meaningful.

When you look at that list of "bad contracts", pretty great how few of them we've had.

Good point on Wallace vs Hughes.

IMO, the worst contract we've had might be Dwyane Wade. Just a terrible huge deal for an outright bad player by that point and an unimaginably bad fit that basically destroyed our franchise.

Why do you think the Wade signing destroyed the franchise? Is is that he came here and wasn't a leader?

I agree with you that he was a bad signing and said so at that time. I also never believed his "coming home" stuff because he was here for the big paycheck.

[League Circles]

IMO, the worst contract we've had might be Dwyane Wade. Just a terrible huge deal for an outright bad player by that point and an unimaginably bad fit that basically destroyed our franchise.

50M for 1 year of mediocre Dwyane Wade was really bad.

I'd say the only caveats around that was the deal was made in the cap spike year, they called all the deals handed out that year the sour 16s. They were almost all universally terrible because teams had to spend the money. I'm glad we just didn't do 4 years on someone worthless which is what a lot of teams did.

Still, that deal was awful, and it was pretty obvious it would be awful in the moment.

I remember knowing it would be terrible, but still somehow being OK with it cause I was so happy that we technically sorta finally got our guy, our elusive "star FA".

[League Circles]

Pat's deal will average out to just a shade over MLE over the life of it. He'll be below MLE in year 5 if he picks up the option, so I think it's probably going to be like say 115% of the MLE. Pat also provides some value, even if he's not great.

Wallace I would say is the worst contract. We didn't do a good recovery trade, we moved him for Larry Hughes whom was every bit as much a disaster as Wallace was.

Robinson was also worse in that he was more worthless as a player at effectively the same relative cost (a tiny bit cheaper). Felicio was also right about MLE if I'm remembering correctly, so I think that one is also worse as he also gave you nothing.

I'd say those 3 deals are worse than I would project Pat to be over his deal (though it's only year 1, maybe he completely regresses). Boozer, I agree, he helped us get to the best record in the league twice and was an important part of that team. May have ended poorly but the results early were important and deeply meaningful.

When you look at that list of "bad contracts", pretty great how few of them we've had.

Good point on Wallace vs Hughes.

IMO, the worst contract we've had might be Dwyane Wade. Just a terrible huge deal for an outright bad player by that point and an unimaginably bad fit that basically destroyed our franchise.

Why do you think the Wade signing destroyed the franchise? Is is that he came here and wasn't a leader?

I agree with you that he was a bad signing and said so at that time. I also never believed his "coming home" stuff because he was here for the big paycheck.

He was an enormous cancer and ruined Jimmy and the org in general. Though, fwiw, he did actually take less to sign here. IIRC it was Denver that offered him a bit more.