2025 Regular Season Thread Vol. 4

[SA37]

Have to add GSW as another franchise that’s in this convo due to the peaks of their run (all with same core tho).

Great post

I considered adding them in, but they were garbage post-TMC. They had ~15 straight years of sub-.500 seasons/non-playoff seasons. They snuck their heads above water and famously beat the Dallas Mavs in round 1 and then went back to being garbage until a few years after drafting Curry. So they've been good ~10 out of 30 years. But the 20 years they were bad, they were REALLY bad.

In fact, I almost didn't even add the Celtics because they were equally bad post-Bird's Celtics. They had a ~15 year run where they had almost exclusively sub.500 seasons outside of a couple with Pierce/cybertoine. The last ~15 years have been much better, though.

[contract]

people believe its easy to build a roster. Just go and get all the players I like that are having a good year.

Constructing a roster has got to be easier than what Spo is asked to do most years. If the job was easy it wouldn't pay as well as it does. If it was easy the job wouldn't have come with a minority stake in the franchise.

I have no idea why everyone is accountable in this organization except the guy in charge.

No one is saying the FO didn't do enough to win a chip. But many insinuated the Heat did a bad job. And the excuses people are using for these emo feelings is because the Heat found talent that are not highly known names through unconventional ways. It doesn't matter where you find talent as long as you have them. Remember John Starks and Anthony Mason were found off the streets and both became all-stars. But in same breath people crying about Vincent and Strus being let go. The goal was to build a championship team, not lets go find friends of Butler. The Heat built a title contending team in 2022. They were number 1 in the east and Butler missed the game winning shot. That failure is on Butler. LET ME REPEAT, THE HEAT WERE THE NUMBER 1 SEED IN THE EAST AND MISSED THE NBA FINALS BECAUSE BUTLER MISSED THE GAME WINNING SHOT. In each year key players were hurt. There has only been one over achieving year and that was 2023.

People keep talking about the Heat finding and developing talent, and that is the case, but the talent they've been finding and developing is the level of talent that is readily available all around the NBA. Every team didn't develop a Max Strus, or a Gabe Vincent, or a Caleb Martin, or a Haywood Highsmith, but everybody has them on their team. Finding and developing that level of talent does not excuse the inability or unwillingness to procure top level talent to finish the job.

It's not like we've been picking guys off the street and turning them into stars. They are rotation quality players and roster filler.

[contract]

And another thing, fans try to pin the Lowry signing on Jimmy because Jimmy and Lowry are tight and Jimmy wanted him here.

But ... and I can't stress this enough ... Jimmy doesn't have the power to sign anyone at any price. That's Pat. If Jimmy could spend the Heat's money, he would have given himself an extension. The fact that Pat made a poor decision in order to appease Jimmy doesn't absolve him of his total responsibility for the boneheaded move.

[SA37]

Spoiler:

Constructing a roster has got to be easier than what Spo is asked to do most years. If the job was easy it wouldn't pay as well as it does. If it was easy the job wouldn't have come with a minority stake in the franchise.

I have no idea why everyone is accountable in this organization except the guy in charge.

No one is saying the FO didn't do enough to win a chip. But many insinuated the Heat did a bad job. And the excuses people are using for these emo feelings is because the Heat found talent that are not highly known names through unconventional ways. It doesn't matter where you find talent as long as you have them. Remember John Starks and Anthony Mason were found off the streets and both became all-stars. But in same breath people crying about Vincent and Strus being let go. The goal was to build a championship team, not lets go find friends of Butler. The Heat built a title contending team in 2022. They were number 1 in the east and Butler missed the game winning shot. That failure is on Butler. LET ME REPEAT, THE HEAT WERE THE NUMBER 1 SEED IN THE EAST AND MISSED THE NBA FINALS BECAUSE BUTLER MISSED THE GAME WINNING SHOT. In each year key players were hurt. There has only been one over achieving year and that was 2023.

People keep talking about the Heat finding and developing talent, and that is the case, but the talent they've been finding and developing is the level of talent that is readily available all around the NBA. Every team didn't develop a Max Strus, or a Gabe Vincent, or a Caleb Martin, or a Haywood Highsmith, but everybody has them on their team. Finding and developing that level of talent does not excuse the inability or unwillingness to procure top level talent to finish the job.

It's not like we've been picking guys off the street and turning them into stars. They are rotation quality players and roster filler.

The VAST MAJORITY of teams do not have the development record Miami does over such a long period of time (~20+ years). The only comparable franchises, imo, would be San Antonio, OKC, Toronto, and the Lakers.

The other point I'd add is that sometimes it's the mistakes you don't make that keep you from going under. Outside of Robinson, Miami has almost never given massive contracts to these (largely) role players. Waiters was turned into Iguodala. Whiteside was moved for crap admittedly and matching Tyler Johnson's deal with the Nets was a mistake. But largely, Miami has avoided onerous massive contracts to bad players.

[greg4012]

Have to add GSW as another franchise that’s in this convo due to the peaks of their run (all with same core tho).

Great post

I considered adding them in, but they were garbage post-TMC. They had ~15 straight years of sub-.500 seasons/non-playoff seasons. They snuck their heads above water and famously beat the Dallas Mavs in round 1 and then went back to being garbage until a few years after drafting Curry. So they've been good ~10 out of 30 years. But the 20 years they were bad, they were REALLY bad.

In fact, I almost didn't even add the Celtics because they were equally bad post-Bird's Celtics. They had a ~15 year run where they had almost exclusively sub.500 seasons outside of a couple with Pierce/cybertoine. The last ~15 years have been much better, though.

This exercise really makes you think. What other FO has had to deal with not 1 but 2 separate occasions of losing a centerpiece star at the prime of their careers to something as out of nowhere as non-basketball sickness? Rebounding from the Zo and Bosh losses in such swift fashions and building up to contention really can't be appreciated enough.

[greg4012]

Constructing a roster has got to be easier than what Spo is asked to do most years. If the job was easy it wouldn't pay as well as it does. If it was easy the job wouldn't have come with a minority stake in the franchise.

I have no idea why everyone is accountable in this organization except the guy in charge.

No one is saying the FO didn't do enough to win a chip. But many insinuated the Heat did a bad job. And the excuses people are using for these emo feelings is because the Heat found talent that are not highly known names through unconventional ways. It doesn't matter where you find talent as long as you have them. Remember John Starks and Anthony Mason were found off the streets and both became all-stars. But in same breath people crying about Vincent and Strus being let go. The goal was to build a championship team, not lets go find friends of Butler. The Heat built a title contending team in 2022. They were number 1 in the east and Butler missed the game winning shot. That failure is on Butler. LET ME REPEAT, THE HEAT WERE THE NUMBER 1 SEED IN THE EAST AND MISSED THE NBA FINALS BECAUSE BUTLER MISSED THE GAME WINNING SHOT. In each year key players were hurt. There has only been one over achieving year and that was 2023.

People keep talking about the Heat finding and developing talent, and that is the case, but the talent they've been finding and developing is the level of talent that is readily available all around the NBA. Every team didn't develop a Max Strus, or a Gabe Vincent, or a Caleb Martin, or a Haywood Highsmith, but everybody has them on their team. Finding and developing that level of talent does not excuse the inability or unwillingness to procure top level talent to finish the job.

It's not like we've been picking guys off the street and turning them into stars. They are rotation quality players and roster filler.

You work with the resources at your disposal. Not every franchise (basically none) has been operating in a pick deficit for such an extended period of time as Miami--dating back over a decade. If Miami hadn't remained competitive during this stint it'd be a different conversation.

If Bosh isn't lost to blood clots right as he was (1) in his prime, (2) relied on for a larger role with LeBron gone, (3) set to benefit from the addition of a perfect pick & roll/pop PG (Dragic) for his game, and (4) primed to fit as the perfect modern big to suit the evolving NBA game, then the conversation about the extent to which Miami has remained competitive would be even more apparent. And may have curbed the real fumble which followed--giving the contracts to the Waiters crew.

Bosh was on the books as a max contract for 3 seasons and change without playing at all.

[greg4012]

And another thing, fans try to pin the Lowry signing on Jimmy because Jimmy and Lowry are tight and Jimmy wanted him here.

But ... and I can't stress this enough ... Jimmy doesn't have the power to sign anyone at any price. That's Pat. If Jimmy could spend the Heat's money, he would have given himself an extension. The fact that Pat made a poor decision in order to appease Jimmy doesn't absolve him of his total responsibility for the boneheaded move.

Sadly Lowry was the prize of that free agent period overall. Miami was over the cap. I still don't think the Lowry signing was a bad move. It was the needed move at the time to compete. Dragic was done and Miami was coming off a finals run.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

On the point of roster construction, who gets credit when undrafted players pan out and get turned into rotation players? Who gets credit when draft picks work out (Bam, Herro, Jaquez, Jovic, Ware etc)?

Conversely, who here owns it when they hoot and holler that a move needs to be made "just because", it happens, you get the guy and you celebrate when it happens (Rozier) and he turns into a net negative on a bad deal?

I get it, everyone wants the home run move. But what about when you get the home run (Jimmy) and you just can't get the back2back? Is there no credit for the first part? Would you rather we just sit on our hands and enjoy "the process" for 5 years or a decade?

It reminds me of the criticism LeBron gets sometimes for Finals losses (2011 aside), as if it would have been better had he not made the Finals at all some of those years so people couldn't hold that against him. Maybe people on this board would be more content if Riley just tanked for a few years like Pop to get a Wemby? Nah, who am I kidding, they'd tear him apart. Or just stop watching altogether.

There are (I think) only a handful of folks who still post here who might remember BBallFreak and me writing book-length posts going back and forth about what Miami needed to do after the Eddie Jones-Brian Grant signings turned sour after Mourning's sudden medically-induced retirement. In summary, I was all for trading absolutely everyone -- even for pennies on the dollar -- for expirings and draft picks, shamelessly tanking to get a high pick (where I thought we had the best chance of getting a star), and using cap space to sign free agents; BBallFreak was much more aligned with Pat Riley's approach of maintaining a competitive roster and not "throwing the baby out with the bathwater."

In the end, we were both proven right to some degree. Our star did come from a high draft pick after a terrible season (D Wade*) and Miami was able to sign Lamar Odom in FA using cap space thanks to Anthony Carter's forgetful agent; at the same time the guys Riley kept around were included in the trades that landed Miami Shaquille O'Neal, Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, and James Posey. (*it is worth noting Riley has admitted he wanted Chris Kaman and had to be talked into drafting D Wade.)

Then Riley pulled off the greatest FA heist in NBA history in 2010.

Anyway, the media doesn't fawn over Miami the way it does other franchises, but objectively there are only 3 other franchises that are in the conversation when comparing what Miami has accomplished as a team in terms of winning games and championships and with the amount of HOF, star-studded players to play for the franchise over the last 30 years + the incredible player development + the coaching staff development: the LA Lakers, the Boston Celtics, and the San Antonio Spurs. And there is almost no one on Riley's level as a GM (except maybe Jerry West and Greg Popovich) and as a coach (Popovich and Phil Jackson).

Pat Riley has brought the franchise the credibility and the stability it needed to make Miami a destination for the best of the best to play for the franchise.

Just to show you how different things could have been, Miami and Charlotte entered the league in 1988 followed by Minnesota and Orlando in 1989. Toronto and Vancouver followed in 1995. Charlotte lost its franchise to New Orleans and Vancouver moved to Memphis. Of all these teams, the only other team that has won a championship is Toronto. The only other team to play in the Finals is Orlando, and that was in 1995.

And I WILL take this opportunity to **** on the Knicks, who got the best of Miami in the late 90s, but have (until recently) languished in total irrelevance, while Miami has been built into one of the preeminent franchises in the NBA.

Thank you, Pat Riley!

I remember (not sure if I was lurking at the time to read your posts though, I started browsing this site around 04/05). But I’ve been around.

I remember Riley personally chastising himself for never being able to land Mitch Richmond for those Zo/Tim teams of the late 90’s, having to settle for Mashburn instead, who was good but never quite what we needed.

[greg4012]

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/basketball/nba-specials/nba-specials/next-de-aaron-fox-team-202502061930

[Kobewade11]

You mean an executive surrounded himself with capable professionals? Wow! What a lucky occurrence

It's the weirdest thing ever but there is a very concentrated effort by some to make sure that Riley gets none of the credit for anything good that occurs with this franchise and 100% of the blame for what goes wrong. That's why even if I don't always agree I can appreciate your posts because they tend to have a more balanced perspective that covers the grey area vs. leaning to one extreme or the other.

[contract]

And another thing, fans try to pin the Lowry signing on Jimmy because Jimmy and Lowry are tight and Jimmy wanted him here.

But ... and I can't stress this enough ... Jimmy doesn't have the power to sign anyone at any price. That's Pat. If Jimmy could spend the Heat's money, he would have given himself an extension. The fact that Pat made a poor decision in order to appease Jimmy doesn't absolve him of his total responsibility for the boneheaded move.

Sadly Lowry was the prize of that free agent period overall. Miami was over the cap. I still don't think the Lowry signing was a bad move. It was the needed move at the time to compete. Dragic was done and Miami was coming off a finals run.

That contract was negligence. It was an overpay, but I didn't mind that so much. But Lowry's age (35) and giving him that 3rd year still pisses me off.

And then the cherry on top was trading Lowry's expiring deal with a pick to get Rozier.

[contract]

Spoiler:

On the point of roster construction, who gets credit when undrafted players pan out and get turned into rotation players? Who gets credit when draft picks work out (Bam, Herro, Jaquez, Jovic, Ware etc)?

Conversely, who here owns it when they hoot and holler that a move needs to be made "just because", it happens, you get the guy and you celebrate when it happens (Rozier) and he turns into a net negative on a bad deal?

I get it, everyone wants the home run move. But what about when you get the home run (Jimmy) and you just can't get the back2back? Is there no credit for the first part? Would you rather we just sit on our hands and enjoy "the process" for 5 years or a decade?

It reminds me of the criticism LeBron gets sometimes for Finals losses (2011 aside), as if it would have been better had he not made the Finals at all some of those years so people couldn't hold that against him. Maybe people on this board would be more content if Riley just tanked for a few years like Pop to get a Wemby? Nah, who am I kidding, they'd tear him apart. Or just stop watching altogether.

There are (I think) only a handful of folks who still post here who might remember BBallFreak and me writing book-length posts going back and forth about what Miami needed to do after the Eddie Jones-Brian Grant signings turned sour after Mourning's sudden medically-induced retirement. In summary, I was all for trading absolutely everyone -- even for pennies on the dollar -- for expirings and draft picks, shamelessly tanking to get a high pick (where I thought we had the best chance of getting a star), and using cap space to sign free agents; BBallFreak was much more aligned with Pat Riley's approach of maintaining a competitive roster and not "throwing the baby out with the bathwater."

In the end, we were both proven right to some degree. Our star did come from a high draft pick after a terrible season (D Wade*) and Miami was able to sign Lamar Odom in FA using cap space thanks to Anthony Carter's forgetful agent; at the same time the guys Riley kept around were included in the trades that landed Miami Shaquille O'Neal, Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, and James Posey. (*it is worth noting Riley has admitted he wanted Chris Kaman and had to be talked into drafting D Wade.)

Then Riley pulled off the greatest FA heist in NBA history in 2010.

Anyway, the media doesn't fawn over Miami the way it does other franchises, but objectively there are only 3 other franchises that are in the conversation when comparing what Miami has accomplished as a team in terms of winning games and championships and with the amount of HOF, star-studded players to play for the franchise over the last 30 years + the incredible player development + the coaching staff development: the LA Lakers, the Boston Celtics, and the San Antonio Spurs. And there is almost no one on Riley's level as a GM (except maybe Jerry West and Greg Popovich) and as a coach (Popovich and Phil Jackson).

Pat Riley has brought the franchise the credibility and the stability it needed to make Miami a destination for the best of the best to play for the franchise.

Just to show you how different things could have been, Miami and Charlotte entered the league in 1988 followed by Minnesota and Orlando in 1989. Toronto and Vancouver followed in 1995. Charlotte lost its franchise to New Orleans and Vancouver moved to Memphis. Of all these teams, the only other team that has won a championship is Toronto. The only other team to play in the Finals is Orlando, and that was in 1995.

And I WILL take this opportunity to **** on the Knicks, who got the best of Miami in the late 90s, but have (until recently) languished in total irrelevance, while Miami has been built into one of the preeminent franchises in the NBA.

Thank you, Pat Riley!

I remember (not sure if I was lurking at the time to read your posts though, I started browsing this site around 04/05). But I’ve been around.

I remember Riley personally chastising himself for never being able to land Mitch Richmond for those Zo/Tim teams of the late 90’s, having to settle for Mashburn instead, who was good but never quite what we needed.

Mashburn had the talent, but he was weak in the head and chest.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[EMC5466]

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[Shewasfly]

That 30-11 run is just cemented in my mind that I can no longer question Spo.

Spo definitely deserves the criticism sometimes for sure. But a lot of times it reaches the point of absurdity. That’s where I’m like ppl need to be reminded how lucky we are to have him. He’s a top 3 coach, period.

Only criticism of spo is not playing bam and ware together some. Just a couple minutes a game just to try it. And not playing rookies early like Ware.

I trust that Spo sees Ware in practice and talks to him about the game to know enough what he’s ready for and what he’s not. There are times I’d like to see Ware out on the floor more too (not necessarily with Bam, but that as well) but I think Spo and the coaching staff know what they’re doing with him and his development path and trust their route. Especially when he does come out there sometimes and you see him blow assignments and just generally look confused. It starts to make sense why he’s held out. And sometimes that can actually tank a player’s confidence, giving him too much pressure and responsibility too soon.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[AirP.]

Or, just maybe he's the same, but the environments keep changing. The chef can cook still but the health department n cooking laws keep changing. Now w aprons. Drafting is more essential today than ever. I give the management credit for finding good players at least when they used to never care about the draft

My only counterpoint is the one I've made each year, when you're close to a championship you go for it. You usually need an MVP level talent to have a shot but luckily for Miami Butler's game is/was well suited for the playoffs where when healthy he can play like an MVP. If you're not going to go for it when you're that close, what real chance do you have at a championship unless you somehow get lucky to draft an MVP level talent in the middle of the first round? Wade's been the only MVP level player this franchise has drafted.

We were really not. Amazing couple runs. But we weren't really true contenders.
But we did try to get bigger whales n failed.
Some stars want different teams. Happens. You can't always get what u want.
But if you try sometime, u get what u need. Lol.
Most champions get breaks. You should be happy to get the chance n we got two. Not bad

Right, makes you wonder what would have happened had Miami added a vet scorer like they had in 2020.

This wasn't a one time thing, Miami got to the ECF 3 times in 5 year with what was considered a weaker contender roster and the FO did basically nothing but some cheap moves around the edges and mostly use their draft picks for players who won't be ready to contribute. I look around during those times and watched other teams making the moves to strengthen their teams to make their chances greater, not so much Miami other than like I said, older vets who cost very little that were passed over by the other teams competing for a title.

[AirP.]

This may be of great interest to this board. Milwaukee may be trying to get in position to be the 3rd team for Miami and Phoenix and probably would need to include at least 1 more team past that. They're rumored to be looking at adding Beal to make a run with Giannis, Lillard and Beal while jettison Middleton's contract and others. I'd have to expect Lopez and his 23 mil expiring would be one contract that would head to Miami that's built around Miami, Phoenix, Milwaukee + a 4th team. Maybe Miami can get that Phoenix 1st that would be probably after KD and Butler are done in the NBA.

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Man that would be very interesting to get Brook here but I’m not sure I buy it. They’re open to swapping Middleton and Lopez for Beal and probably losing another asset to dump Pat? I get that Middleton has his injury concerns but so does Beal (not as serious) and Lopez is a big loss for them I feel

It's not a vacuum for all teams, their window is Giannis, they added a player with a more limited window in Lillard last year, they really can't take a step back and continue to have Giannis content because his career is on the clock now too. Adding a scorer like Beal could let Lillard not have to play 36+ minutes a game in the regular season to keep him fresher for the playoffs.

Basically, you do what you can to win a championship with an MVP level talent and Giannis probably has a 2, possibly 3-year window if he has Lillard and maybe Beal, after that Milwaukee and Giannis probably decide to part ways and that will be Milwaukee's start of their rebuild by trying to get a haul from Giannis while sending him somewhere he can contend. In the NBA you basically have to continue to build your roster to the peak and hope you build a championship level roster then start again, Miami used to not be this way, maybe they are now but they were kind of close but decided no to an all-in move to add a 3rd high level player, I think they just needed a vet who could be counted on to score around 20 a night like Dragic was, to Butler and Bam.