Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE — Dwyane Wade

[AEnigma]

General Project Discussion Thread

Discussion and Results from the 2010 Project

In this thread we'll discuss and vote on the top 5 players and the top 3 offensive and defensive players of 2005-06.

Player of the Year (POY)(5) — most accomplished overall player of that season
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)(3) — most accomplished offensive player of that season
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)(3) — most accomplished defensive player of that season

Voting will close sometime after 12:00PM EST on Wednesday, January 15th. I have no issue keeping it open so long as discussion is strong, but please try to vote within the first three days.

Valid ballots must provide an explanation for your choices that gives us a window into how you thought and why you came to the decisions you did. You can vote for any of the three awards — although they must be complete votes — but I will only tally votes for an award when there are at least five valid ballots submitted for it.

Remember, your votes must be based on THIS season. This is intended to give wide wiggle room for personal philosophies while still providing a boundary to make sure the award can be said to mean something. You can factor things like degree of difficulty as defined by you, but what you can't do is ignore how the player actually played on the floor this season in favor of what he might have done if only...

You may change your vote, but if you do, edit your original post rather than writing, "hey, ignore my last post, this is my real post until I change my mind again.” I similarly ask that ballots be kept in one post rather than making one post for Player of the Year, one post for Offensive Player of the Year, and/or one post for Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to provide your reasoning that way for the sake of discussion, fine, but please keep the official votes themselves in one aggregated post. Finally, for ease of tallying, I prefer for you to place your votes at the beginning of your balloting post, with some formatting that makes them stand out. I will not discount votes which fail to follow these requests, but I am certainly more likely to overlook them.

Contrarian votes can be and have been sincere, but they look a lot more sincere when you take the time to fully present your reasoning rather than transparently pretend nothing is amiss.

Vote sincerely. Do not move a player down in your voting to give another player an advantage. I would encourage every voter to give some explanations while they do their voting - but particularly if you have a top 5 that deviates strongly with the norm and you haven't expressed your thoughts on it earlier in the thread. If I'm not satisfied, I may ask you for more of an explanation - and it may come to actually booting people out of the project.

The rules here are that you've got to use the same type of thinking for all 5 votes. I understand putting more thought into #1 than #5, but I don't want PJ Brown votes. Voters do Brown type votes to give a guy an honorable mention. Makes sense if people only care about who finishes 1st, but I've been clear that I want to measure more than that. I've been trying to encourage literal "honorable mentions" to serve that purpose, and I'd ask that people use that as the way they honor guys who did something special but who aren't actually a top 5 guy that year.

There is a significant difference between a properly justified and internally consistent contrarian vote, and a vote whose purpose is to undermine the project itself. Ballots which threaten to do the latter and derail project discussion via blatant vote manipulation are liable to be tossed. If it happens twice, the offending poster will be removed from the project.

Current Voter List

Spoiler:

[AEnigma]

Reminder that the 2005 thread is still open and will remain open until Monday.

[One_and_Done]

1. Duncan
2. Nash
3. Lebron
4. Wade
5. Dirk

A tough year to rank guys, but I’m going to stay with Duncan at #1. He had reduced his offense some, but his impact was no less than the previous year. The Spurs now had enough scorers that Duncan didn’t need to go too hard on the offensive end. They lost to the Mavs, but I think it’s worth noting that:

1) They were only playing the Mavs in the 2nd round because of a broken seeding system

2) The Spurs were a dumb Manu foul away from winning the series, and then almost certainly the title. I can’t punish Duncan for that.

3) The Spurs support cast really didn’t come to play in the Mavs series. The bigs were so bad that Pop had to resort to starting 4 smalls next to Duncan as the series went on. Nazr, Rasho, and Oberto were useless, and Horry had one of his bad years, shooting 420 TS% for the series.

Duncan did everything humanly possible to beat the Mavs, but his support cast let him down. His stat line against the Mavs highlights his ridiculous performance; 32/12/4/3 on 615 TS%. The irony was that the Mavs really played their best this series, then choked in the finals, which makes it tough to rank Dirk as high as I otherwise might. Over the whole year, Duncan had the Spurs as the #1 Defence in the NBA, and the leagues best SRS. I think Duncan was actually better this year than the previous year, especially in the playoffs, his team just let him down. The Mavs also had an awesome support cast around Dirk, who really came to play.

The next 4 slots aren’t easy either. I’ve gone with Nash, for a continuation of the reasons I gave in the previous thread. Nash losing Amare, but still leading this team to 54 wins and the WCFs is incredible. Lebron’s support cast sucked, but I feel like he was now sneakily one of the best players in the league. He just lacked the opportunity of Wade or Dirk. Lebron wishes he had a 2nd best player as good as Odom.

[Narigo]

I think I'm going with for Wade for number 1 based off his playoff performance. Pretty much a tossup for the first spot, Kobe, LeBron Wade, Nash, and Dirk all have a case

Also I think KG and Billups are underrated this year

[70sFan]

I think I'm going with for Wade for number 1 based off his playoff performance. Pretty much a tossup for the first spot, Kobe, LeBron Wade, Nash, and Dirk all have a case

Also I think KG and Billups are underrated this year

No Duncan?

[Lebronnygoat]

LeBron or Wade
LeBron’s playmaking this year alone rivals Nash, just watch the games. Idk what’s more indefensible, nashing or a LeBron drive. LeBron is creating at all time levels, and at all time interior levels too. The way he can pick apart a defense with this offensive cast and lead them so high on offense in the NBA is insane. Sure, Nash was the better interior playmaker, but I don’t see the huge gap. And I’d say the perimeter playmaking is probably LeBron. The way he can skip, drive and kick, make cross court reads, pass from the post, and hit moving players coming off screens from far are all time skill sets as a passer. The scoring gap is pretty vast. 31.4 vs 18.8. The efficiency doesn’t come close to the volume gap. Even in the postseason. I’ll still take that Wizards series over any Nash series. The Lakers > Pistons however. Kobe can’t be the best when LeBron is better in the regular season alone, and his Wizards series was undeniably better than the Suns series. Duncan’s playoffs surge this year, probably his best or 2nd best scoring run in his career, but a lackluster regular season. D-Wade’s regular season doesn’t come close to LeBron’s either, but he clearly has the playoff advantage. I’d say the Wizards series still stacks up with any Wade series, but it’s Wade having an elite Mavs series, and great Nets series that would try and uplift him over LeBron. Is the 2 series enough to wipe away LeBron’s big regular season gap? IMO, not necessarily but just think about that.

[Lebronnygoat]

I think I'm going with for Wade for number 1 based off his playoff performance. Pretty much a tossup for the first spot, Kobe, LeBron Wade, Nash, and Dirk all have a case

Also I think KG and Billups are underrated this year

Ye that’s nasty, Duncan deserves it more than Billups or KG lol

[penbeast0]

Best RS team is Detroit in their best season of the Billups/Wallace/Wallace era; though they lost in the ECF to eventual champion Miami. Second best was San Antonio though they lost in the second round to Dallas as Tony Parker had his first top tier scoring season to go with Duncan's defense and Manu's versatility. Finalist Dallas with Dirk having more primacy than any of the prior players was third. Then, long drop off to other RS contenders.

Next tier contenders were Phoenix despite losing Amare for the year with Nash winning another MVP though the team slipped at the end after Kurt Thomas was also injured leaving them with little inside, Miami where Shaq and Wade pulled them through the playoffs to the title, Cleveland as LeBron lives up to the hype with little help (Ilgauskas clear 2nd best), Memphis with Pau Gasol and some strong defense, and NJ at the end of the Kidd era with Vince Carter as their sole All-Star.

Ben Wallace won another Dpoy, Kobe led in scoring, Garnett in rebounding, Nash in assists. Dirk and LeBron split the honors in Box Score Compilation stats.

POY
Tim Duncan -- Spurs defense was that impressive even as his offensive role diminished plus stepped up in the PS
Dwayne Wade -- Shaq was getting older, Wade was healthy and had his career year and got better in the PS
Dirk Nowitzki -- League's best offense
LeBron James -- Working with very little support in Cleveland
Steve Nash -- Lost Amare for the year and kept right on trucking until losing Kurt Thomas too leaving them with two guys known to this point more as SFs (Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw) as the keys to their big man rotation.

[lessthanjake]

I think Wade is a fairly easy answer here. It’s just really hard to overcome the case for a guy who was amongst the very best players in the league and then put together a truly great playoff run to lead his team to the title. I don’t think anyone else has the kind of truly extraordinary case that would be required to overcome that.

That said, I do want to just note that what Nash did on the Suns that year was pretty incredible. With Amare out and Joe Johnson gone, Nash now basically had a team that was just Shawn Marion and several solid role players. The fact that they still won 54 games with a 5.5 SRS and made the conference finals was a really impressive achievement. Obviously this is what got him MVP, so maybe it’s an obvious point, but I just wanted to note it.

What I think is particularly impressive about Nash this year was the offense he was still able to get out of this team. We talked about the Suns having an offense-slanted roster in the 2004-05 thread. But this year they really didn’t have an offense-slanted roster. The team’s second-best player was definitely Marion—who I’d say is more of a defense-slanted player, if anything. Raja Bell was a key player, and while he could shoot open threes (though it’s worth noting that he did it way better with Nash than otherwise in his career, where he was a 37.9% three-point shooter), he was definitely a pure 3&D player, whose main focus was defense. James Jones was another 3&D guy. They also brought in Kurt Thomas, who was definitely a defense-focused player. Diaw definitely did bring some unique things offensively, but couldn’t shoot threes, which was a real limit on the offense, and RAPM actually has him as better on defense in these years (this would flip in his later years). Tim Thomas was definitely a more offensively-slanted player, but wasn’t around for most of the regular season. The Suns did still play a high-pace offensive style built around Nash’s strengths, so that helped, but the supporting cast itself was, if anything, slanted towards defense IMO.

So what did Nash get out of this team offensively? Well, for starters, they had the best offensive rating in the league as per PBPstats (BBREF has them a very close 2nd, but I *think* PBPstats is actually more accurate on possession numbers). And looking more historically, I did some analysis a while back of the on-court rORTG for every season of Nash, LeBron, Curry, Jokic, Luka, and Chris Paul. I included regular season and playoffs, and weighted playoff possessions at 3x the weight of regular season possessions. Besides other Nash seasons, the only seasons where those players had a higher on-court rORTG than 2006 Nash were: 2013 LeBron, 2016 LeBron, 2017 LeBron, 2016 Curry, 2017 Curry, 2018 Curry, 2014 CP3, and 2015 CP3. And most of those seasons were not far ahead of 2006 Nash. I’d definitely hazard to say that all of those guys had more offensive talent beside them in those years than Nash did in 2006 and none of these guys did better in years where they perhaps had comparable offensive talent, so I find this quite impressive.

All that said, Nash did give away some impact on defense, and his team did lose in the conference finals (despite having fantastic playoff offense), so I still think it’s pretty straightforward to put Wade above him, but I just wanted to provide some of that info.

[70sFan]

Can we even say with certainty that Wade's performance against Dallas was the best in the playoffs? Nash and Duncan did remarkably well themselves against Mavs, it wasn't their fault (or Wade's merit) that Dirk played significantly worse in the finals than in the previous two series.

[lessthanjake]

Can we even say with certainty that Wade's performance against Dallas was the best in the playoffs? Nash and Duncan did remarkably well themselves against Mavs, it wasn't their fault (or Wade's merit) that Dirk played significantly worse in the finals than in the previous two series.

Considering how the rest of his team was playing offensively and the related fact that he was needing to carry Antoine Walker (one of the worst NBA players ever to get lots of playing time IMO) and Shaq was making 29% of his FTs in the series, I’d say yes—even if we could look at some box and team data that might potentially suggest otherwise. It’s also the case that playing amazingly in the Finals is more significant.

In any event, though, it wasn’t just about Wade’s performance in the Finals. The Heat faced the 64-win title-favorite Pistons in the conference finals and Wade torched them for 27/6/5 on 68.4% TS%. This is a really big deal! And he was very good prior to that too—though obviously those series were not as difficult.

[AEnigma]

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Ben Wallace
2. Tim Duncan
3. Shawn Marion

I generally have Ben and Duncan split this 2002-07 period, and my first point of distinction tends to be playing time. This year… Ben plays 160 more minutes than Duncan does (and goes a round farther in the postseason)… Close enough that I think you could swing a different way if you feel there is a definite gap in defensive quality, but I tend to assess these two as extremely comparable year to year based on my interpretation of the various defensive impact metrics available to us (with both being consistently marked in the top three from 2003-06). I think Ben is a little more versatile, so I tend to give him extra marks in a “defensive peaks” comparison, but ultimately that has little to do with my intent to vote Ben as the DPoY from 2004-06.

With most of the other top defensive bigs missing significant time, that opens a spot for either Marion or Battier as the more valuable defensive forwards. Marion plays 400 more minutes than Battier, essentially acts as the (conference finalist) team’s only real source of paint protection once Kurt Thomas goes out, and does not have a partner on par with Eddie Jones (to whom I generally attribute the defensive spike the Grizzlies see this year, even if Battier is still their most important and valuable defensive piece). This year he earns the defensive credit he bafflingly never did while playing.

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Steve Nash
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Dirk Nowitzki

Everything from 2005 still applies to Nash.

I agree that Nash’s ORtg's are inflated by small-ball...but the overall product is an 8 SRS title-level team again. (!) In 2005, one of Phoenix’s best players broke his face. In 2006-2007, Phoenix's big-men were injured, no one insisted they be off the court. (In 2007 they were also suspended vs SAS.) In Nash's only other title shot, 2010, the key to the operation was finding ANY capable big...even Robin Lopez (also injured). Are you considering Raja Bell, Shawn Marion and Kurt Thomas offensively-slanted players?? I see them as defensive.

I don't "just" see the ridiculous team ORtgs as his case, or else I would have him as offensive GOAT. It's the overall team, particularly with and without Nash, and a clear dying need to have a big in the game that cheap Phoenix management (and the quirky Don Nelson) would not provide. (People were screaming for them to find more depth.) I'm not even saying it's impossible for Phoenix to have won with the Amare-Marion frontcourt -- they could have -- but look at the overall picture: 8 SRS teams are title-winning teams. What more can you ask for? You might say "actually winning a title" but I might say "luck plays a role when the margin of error isn't big, and a major injury (03) followed by a major injury (05), followed by a major suspension (07) is bad luck that has nothing to do with Steve Nash or how well he/his teams played.

What most people don't know is that in 2006, before Kurt Thomas' injury, Phoenix played 53 games with a -2.9 DRtg. (+6.6 SRS, +4.1 ORtg) At that point in the season, they were 0.8 points BETTER than the Detroit Pistons on defense, and for the season, that would have made Steve Nash's Suns the 5th-best defensive team in the NBA.

Phoenix's best overall lineup combo in 2006 was Nash-K. Thomas +11.2 (!) After the injury, they literally ran out of big men, player super small-ball, posted a +9.5 ORtg and +6.5 DRtg (+3.5 SRS) which was relatively brilliant given their limitations. What was not brilliant was not having any big men on the team! (Of course, Amare was injured.) But Nash didn't win MVP that year for another +10 ORtg with a skewed lineup. He won it because of something that stills boggles the mind today: He led Kurt Thomas, Boris Diaw, Shawn Marion and Raja Bell to a 59-win pace. (!)

Dirk had a great offensive season, but he still had some blemishes (apparent in the Finals), and I am more impressed by Kobe providing enormous offensive lift to a comparably low talent roster (Odom aside).

Player of the Year

1. Dwyane Wade
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Steve Nash
4. Tim Duncan
5. Kobe Bryant

I agree with the top two MVP selections, and with Kobe receiving the other first-team all-NBA guard spot, but Wade’s regular season was on par with the other top players, and no one impressed as much in the postseason as he did. He was better against the Mavericks than Nash was, was much better against the Pistons than Lebron was, and thoroughly outperformed Dirk in the Finals. Relatively easy choice for the top spot.

Still, Dirk deserves immense credit for upsetting a much better Spurs team on the road and leading a group of decent but uninspiring talent to the Finals at all. I am sympathetic to Nash here, but the Suns had some lucky seeding en route to their conference finals, and Nash himself was not as spectacular as in the surrounding postseasons.

This is the worst offensive season of Duncan’s prime, and he is not at his peak defensive level — and if we are going to gush over his postseason offensive output against a frontcourt ill-equipped to defend him, then may as well highlight that the Spurs fared worse defensively than not only the Heat did, but also worse than the centre-less Suns did. Dirk had his most efficient series against the Spurs. Does that not reflect at all on Duncan? The only real “accomplishment” to his name this season is the conference 1-seed, but nothing suggests Duncan himself was some overwhelmingly dominant regular season force. Yeah, Duncan was a basket away from going through: he had the better team! Parker having one of the worst series of his prime does not change that. Oh no, Manu made a costly mistake; he also saved them from elimination in Game 6 and made the game-winning free throw in Game 5 (again saving the Spurs from elimination). I do not particularly begrudge Duncan for this loss or anything, but I do not care enough about “best player on best regular season team in the conference” to place him higher than fourth.

Kobe takes fifth because he was not particularly relevant but was a significant story for the season, and I think at this point he has the benefit of doubt relative to Lebron.

Fun season; honourable mentions to Billups, Lebron, Garnett, and Elton Brand.

[trelos6]

OPOY

1.Steve Nash. Best passer and playmaker in the league. 20pp75 on +9.7 rTS%. Team rOrtg +5.3. Was still great in the playoffs, basically 20 +8%. Did it all without Amare.

2.Dwayne Wade. 27.8 pp75 on +4.2 rTS%. In playoffs, slight dip in volume with a 2% increase in TS. Top 10 playmaker in the league. Team rOrtg +2.5

3.Kobe Bryant. 34.2 pp75 on +2.4 rTS%. Top 4 playmaker in the league. Team rOrtg of +2.2. In the playoffs, he sacrificed some scoring for playmaking with good results. Dirk, Ray Allen, Lebron and Gilbert were all considered.


DPOY

1.Ben Wallace. The usual suspects for the mid 00’s return. Wallace comes out on top.

2.Tim Duncan. What can be said that hasn’t already?

3.Kevin Garnett. Carried that excuse of a Wolves roster to the 10th best defense. Also considered Kirilenko and Battier.

POY

1.Dwayne Wade. +5.56 OPIPM, +1.69 DPIPM. +7.24 PIPM. 24.08 Wins Added. Amazing playoff performance. Top 5 scorer, top 10 playmaker, elite guard defense. One of the best getting to the rim seasons of all time.

2.Steve Nash. +4.39 OPIPM, -0.79 DPIPM, +3.6 PIPM. 14.4 Wins Added. Drove a great offense. Basically everyone on the team had their best seasons in terms of scoring output.

3.Dirk Nowitzki. 28.6 pp75, +5.4 rTS%. Team rOrtg of +5.6. Less assisted and more self generated looks. Dirk has expanded his offensive arsenal. +4.92 OPIPM, -0.24 DPIPM. +4.69 PIPM. 19.18 Wins Added. Playoff scoring went down to 25.5 pp75, but remained efficient.

4.Kobe Bryant. +6.16 OPIPM, -2.28 DPIPM, +3.88 PIPM. 15.14 Wins Added. Want to hear a joke? Kobe was first team all D this year. Tremendous offensive output, but he was horrible on D this year. If he really was on that All D level, then this would be an all time level season.

5.Kevin Garnett. +2.46 OPIPM, +2.59 DPIPM, +5.05 PIPM. 14.93 Wins Added. 22.7 pp75 on +5.4 rTS%. Great individual numbers but the team offense was -3.8. This was due to the new coach changing the wolves playstyle, and making KG more of a finisher rather than the offensive hub. They won 33 games, but without KG, I’d be surprised if they would’ve won more than 20. 7 players for 5 spots this year. Lebron and Duncan were both unlucky to miss the cut.

[jjgp111292]

KG over Bron this year is um...definitely a choice

[Lebronnygoat]

Can we even say with certainty that Wade's performance against Dallas was the best in the playoffs? Nash and Duncan did remarkably well themselves against Mavs, it wasn't their fault (or Wade's merit) that Dirk played significantly worse in the finals than in the previous two series.

No, if anything, I take back what I said about the Mavs series stacking up with the Wizards series. LeBron’s wizards series > Wade’s Mavs series. LeBron was the better scorer, (35.7 on +5.0rTS vs 34.7 on +4.0rTS), better playmaker (I’m going to presume it was a big playmaking gap but I haven’t tracked the Mavs finals), and defense might be a wash or slightly Wade, but the defense wouldn’t cover the offensive gap there is. The opponent defense is why I considered them equal but I realized Doug Christie was lost in the regular season and so was Marq Daniel’s. Idek if Wade is getting close to the amount of pressure put on him as LeBron with the players he has on his team vs LeBron. The Wizards had Caron Butler who is a better wing or guard defender than anyone on Dallas. So the defense side of things shouldn’t be a worthy point. This is just Wade being better in the common matchup and his Nets series being another great series LeBron doesn’t have, meanwhile LeBron clears in the regular season and should certainly have the better playoff series. Also, note this is important, Wade played just as bad as LeBron did in that Bulls series, and was able to make it past the 1st round, meanwhile LeBron doesn’t get that privilege… so when Wade is clearly beating LeBron in the playoffs, if you think he is, it’s probably due to him having the better team and allowing him to have more potential great series (nets series)

[One_and_Done]

Wade had a great finals, but before that infamous series absolutely nobody was talking about him as the best player in the league, despite good health he was 6th in MVP. Statistically I don't really see the argument for that in hindsight either, it just seems like winning bias. The Heat had a good team around Wade, and they won only 52 games in a weak East. Unlike some teams in the East, eg. the 09 & 10 Cavs, the conference disparity really helped them. They were 35-17 vs the East, and only 17-13 vs the much tougher West. Their first 2 playoff opponents were weak, and while it's impressive they beat the Pistons and Mavs, I think there's no question they lose to the Spurs and Suns.

When this happened, I was pleased the Heat won. However, I also told myself 'that's a one off, no way this group is winning again'. They really had alot of breaks go their way, including the Mavs choking. Pelton did a analysis of the weakest champs over the last 25 years, and as I expected these guys ranked #1.

[Lebronnygoat]

It’s not winning bias though because he’s having very very elite performances. Mavs, Nets (I’d say it’s around elite), and Pistons. I could see Wade being argued.

[lessthanjake]

Wade had a great finals, but before that infamous series absolutely nobody was talking about him as the best player in the league, despite good health he was 6th in MVP. Statistically I don't really see the argument for that in hindsight either, it just seems like winning bias. The Heat had a good team around Wade, and they won only 52 games in a weak East. Unlike some teams in the East, eg. the 09 & 10 Cavs, the conference disparity really helped them. They were 35-17 vs the East, and only 17-13 vs the much tougher West. Their first 2 playoff opponents were weak, and while it's impressive they beat the Pistons and Mavs, I think there's no question they lose to the Spurs and Suns.

When this happened, I was pleased the Heat won. However, I also told myself 'that's a one off, no way this group is winning again'. They really had alot of breaks go their way, including the Mavs choking. Pelton did a analysis of the weakest champs over the last 25 years, and as I expected these guys ranked #1.

I too thought it was a one-off, but part of why it was pretty obviously a one-off is that, as good as Wade was, there was very little chance that he’d be able to have another playoff run like that one. But the fact that his playoff run this year was uniquely great even for an all-time-great player is a lot of why he’s POY in this particular year!

As for saying you don’t see the statistical argument for Wade being 6th in MVP voting, I don’t really understand where you’re drawing that conclusion from. He was 4th in PER, 4th in WS per 48, and 4th in BPM. He also was 3rd that year in RAPM, as per TheBasketballDatabase. And he was 2nd in the NBA in two-year RAPM for the time period that included this year and the next year, according to the NBArapm website. And he was also 1st in the NBA in that season’s GitLab RAPM. In terms of raw on-off, he had a very high +15.2 on off per 100 possessions (which reflected in part the team being quite bad without him), and no one else on the team was anywhere near that. He was 3rd or 5th in EPM that year, depending on whether you use new or old EPM (and not far off 1st either way). You are right that people weren’t talking about him as the NBA’s best player prior to winning the Finals, but he was definitely up there amongst the top few players statistically, and, if anything, him getting 6th in MVP voting actually understates where he stood statistically (perhaps due to him being relatively young and unproven at that point, as well as the NBA community not being as sophisticated statistically at the time). The fact is that Wade was amongst the top few players in the NBA and proceeded to have an incredible playoffs to lead his team to the title. This is a really strong case that I think we should regard as requiring something extraordinary to overcome.

As for saying “while it's impressive they beat the Pistons and Mavs, I think there's no question they lose to the Spurs and Suns,” it is worth noting that the Pistons were the clear pre-playoffs favorites that year. They had won the 2004 title and lost in the 2005 Finals in 7 games in a series they’d scored more points in. They’d come back in 2006 with essentially the exact same team and put up 64 regular season wins (a much better regular season than they’d had the prior two years). Obviously matchups matter, so it’s possible the Heat would’ve matched up worse against another really good team, but the Pistons were in general probably the strongest team in the league that year, and Wade dominated them.

I also don’t really see any basis for acting like the Mavs were an easier team to beat than the Spurs or Suns. By RS SRS, the Spurs Mavs, and Suns were very similar (6.69 for the Spurs, 5.96 for the Mavs, and 5.48 for the Suns). In terms of RS wins, the Spurs were the highest with 63 wins, but the Mavs were close behind with 60 wins, while the Suns lagged behind a bit with 54 wins. The Spurs did have a slightly better RS than the Mavs, but the difference isn’t particularly meaningful, and the Mavs actually had a slightly better RS than the Suns. Meanwhile, of course, the Mavs then went on to beat both the Spurs and Suns in the playoffs! And while the Spurs series was very close, the Mavs did outscore the Spurs by over 4 points per game in the series. I don’t see much of any basis for acting like the Mavs were a weaker team (let alone a much weaker team, as you suggest) than two teams that did similarly well in the RS as the Mavs and then lost to the Mavs in the playoffs.

I think you’re wanting to downplay the difficulty of the Heat’s run in order to downplay Wade’s achievements in the playoffs, to the benefit of Duncan. But I think it’s just undeniable that the Pistons and Mavs were very strong opponents, and that Wade played incredibly well against both, to lead his team to the title. The Heat’s wins against both teams were upsets, and I think you’re probably right that the Heat were a weak title team. I don’t think they’d win again if we rewound time and ran these playoffs again. But the biggest reason they won despite being pretty weak as title teams go is that Wade played extremely well in the playoffs. And that’s a huge reason he’s the clear POY this year!

[Homer38]

The suns were without Amare in 2006 and they beat the lakers who was a one man team in 7 games and the clippers who had only 47 wins....No way you can said for sure they would beat the heat in the finals....The heat were big underdog in the finals too,same vs Pistons

[lessthanjake]

Can we even say with certainty that Wade's performance against Dallas was the best in the playoffs? Nash and Duncan did remarkably well themselves against Mavs, it wasn't their fault (or Wade's merit) that Dirk played significantly worse in the finals than in the previous two series.

No, if anything, I take back what I said about the Mavs series stacking up with the Wizards series. LeBron’s wizards series > Wade’s Mavs series. LeBron was the better scorer, (35.7 on +5.0rTS vs 34.7 on +4.0rTS), better playmaker (I’m going to presume it was a big playmaking gap but I haven’t tracked the Mavs finals), and defense might be a wash or slightly Wade, but the defense wouldn’t cover the offensive gap there is. The opponent defense is why I considered them equal but I realized Doug Christie was lost in the regular season and so was Marq Daniel’s. Idek if Wade is getting close to the amount of pressure put on him as LeBron with the players he has on his team vs LeBron. The Wizards had Caron Butler who is a better wing or guard defender than anyone on Dallas. So the defense side of things shouldn’t be a worthy point. This is just Wade being better in the common matchup and his Nets series being another great series LeBron doesn’t have, meanwhile LeBron clears in the regular season and should certainly have the better playoff series. Also, note this is important, Wade played just as bad as LeBron did in that Bulls series, and was able to make it past the 1st round, meanwhile LeBron doesn’t get that privilege… so when Wade is clearly beating LeBron in the playoffs, if you think he is, it’s probably due to him having the better team and allowing him to have more potential great series (nets series)

I don’t think this really matters all *that* much for this year, since I don’t think it relates to any real discussion for 1st place, but I really have to say that it is pretty absurd to hype up a series against the Wizards as having any comparison to a series against an actually good team. I lived in the DC area back then and watched almost every Wizards game. They were not a very good team, and had an awful defense. LeBron had a fantastic series against them, but those Wizards just weren’t a team that we should hype up playoff performances against. Comparing a series against the 2006 Wizards to a series against the 2006 Mavericks is just silly IMO. The difference between those two teams is really night and day. This would be akin to comparing Jimmy Butler’s performance against the Hawks in the 2022 playoffs to Steph’s performance in the Finals that year.