Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE — Dwyane Wade
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
I don't think EPM has winning bias, I just don't like it period and don't care about it.
Where the winning bias comes in is that Wade won the title, so I think there's a temptation to pick stats that support the narrative behind Wade. As you yourself noted, there's a bunch of advanced stats and they mostly don't support Wade as being #1. I try to be more consistent about these things; Duncan was the best in 02 using my approach, and continued to be the best until his prime ended in 07, so unless he played worse or something he's more or less my presumptive #1 as a starting point, and I begin my analysis from there. I'll have the same approach with Lebron, whether he loses in the 2nd round or wins the title. Duncan was even better in 06 than 05; so I'm not going to dock him for his team letting him down in the 2nd round.
If you're voting based on playoff EPM every round, then cool. My impression is most are not doing that.
Where the winning bias comes in is that Wade won the title, so I think there's a temptation to pick stats that support the narrative behind Wade. As you yourself noted, there's a bunch of advanced stats and they mostly don't support Wade as being #1. I try to be more consistent about these things; Duncan was the best in 02 using my approach, and continued to be the best until his prime ended in 07, so unless he played worse or something he's more or less my presumptive #1 as a starting point, and I begin my analysis from there. I'll have the same approach with Lebron, whether he loses in the 2nd round or wins the title. Duncan was even better in 06 than 05; so I'm not going to dock him for his team letting him down in the 2nd round.
If you're voting based on playoff EPM every round, then cool. My impression is most are not doing that.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
One_and_Done wrote:I don't think EPM has winning bias, I just don't like it period and don't care about it.
Where the winning bias comes in is that Wade won the title, so I think there's a temptation to pick stats that support the narrative behind Wade. As you yourself noted, there's a bunch of advanced stats and they mostly don't support Wade as being #1. I try to be more consistent about these things; Duncan was the best in 02 using my approach, and continued to be the best until his prime ended in 07, so unless he played worse or something he's more or less my presumptive #1 as a starting point, and I begin my analysis from there. I'll have the same approach with Lebron, whether he loses in the 2nd round or wins the title. Duncan was even better in 06 than 05; so I'm not going to dock him for his team letting him down in the 2nd round.
If you're voting based on playoff EPM every round, then cool. My impression is most are not doing that.
Your approach sounds like it’s basically just “I presume the players I like the most should be POY, and will come up with any possible argument I can to justify that in any given year.” You do seem consistent in that approach, though, I’ll admit that.
Anyways, leaving aside the fact that I’m not voting at all, my views aren’t specifically shaped by playoff EPM. It’s just a data point to back up the obvious point that Wade had a really strong playoffs statistically. I didn’t need that in order to come to that conclusion because I was aware that Wade had an extremely strong playoff statistically without looking at playoff EPM. I just pulled the EPM values to point out to you that your claim that he didn’t have a particularly strong playoffs statistically was incorrect. I do think EPM is a good stat, though. If at some point I make a claim about my view of someone's statistical output in the playoffs and someone is able to point out to me that it is contrary to playoff EPM, then I'd be happy to look at that and potentially reconsider my views.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
lessthanjake wrote:One_and_Done wrote:I don't think EPM has winning bias, I just don't like it period and don't care about it.
Where the winning bias comes in is that Wade won the title, so I think there's a temptation to pick stats that support the narrative behind Wade. As you yourself noted, there's a bunch of advanced stats and they mostly don't support Wade as being #1. I try to be more consistent about these things; Duncan was the best in 02 using my approach, and continued to be the best until his prime ended in 07, so unless he played worse or something he's more or less my presumptive #1 as a starting point, and I begin my analysis from there. I'll have the same approach with Lebron, whether he loses in the 2nd round or wins the title. Duncan was even better in 06 than 05; so I'm not going to dock him for his team letting him down in the 2nd round.
If you're voting based on playoff EPM every round, then cool. My impression is most are not doing that.
Your approach sounds like it’s basically just “I presume the players I like the most should be POY, and will come up with any possible argument I can to justify that in any given year.” You do seem consistent in that approach, though, I’ll admit that.
Anyways, leaving aside the fact that I’m not voting at all, my views aren’t specifically shaped by playoff EPM. It’s just a data point to back up the obvious point that Wade had a really strong playoffs statistically. I didn’t need that in order to come to that conclusion because I was aware that Wade had an extremely strong playoff statistically without looking at playoff EPM. I just pulled the EPM values to point out to you that your claim that he didn’t have a particularly strong playoffs statistically was incorrect. I do think EPM is a good stat, though. If at some point I make a claim about my view of someone's statistical output in the playoffs and someone is able to point out to me that it is contrary to playoff EPM, then I'd be happy to look at that and potentially reconsider my views.
If there was persuasive evidence Duncan was worse in 06 etc, then my starting point in the analysis would be very different; but by persuasuve evidence I don't mean advanced stats like EPM. For example, if Duncan missed 15 games in 06 and the Spurs were 14-1 in those games, I would have to seriously re-evaluate how impactful he really was.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
1 - Tim Duncan
2 - Lebron James
3 - Steve Nash
4 - Dirk
5 - Dwyane Wade
Math is not mathing up for me guys. Duncan is the DPOY according to here. Has 26/3/11 on great TS. Has 33/11/3 on amazing true shooting against the Mavericks and is like one game from winning. But he's not top 3 or 4 or 5? Seems like it's just wow he lost but that doesn't even make sense when he wins more games than Nash does and obviously KG does or Lebron does but maybe he was really stupid to win 63 games and just waited to play the Mavs one round later, duh!!!
Crazy to say but one and done is the one talking the most about how people played. And idk I think that's more important than wow their defense sucked so bad they almost beat the 2nd best team!!! Like you can talk about spreadsheets and EPM all you want but I don't care. If you want to explain how Duncan went from best defender to worst defender okay but no one is doing that so I'm not going to vote on it.
Can't put Wade higher. I thought he'd be a simple 1 honest but wow I didn't realize how much of it was just the finals. He's here for the playoffs but has the worst playoff stats of anyone we're talking about besides Duncan who you guys say is the best defender and Lebron who honest is probably a much better playmaker than stats show and barely has help. Lebron scores like 10 more points than nash and is a better defender, probably? If he's already this awesome playmaker with all these creations then i'm gonna have to agree Lebron is better overall. I know he's 21 but if he's that good it's whatevs.
I know Dirk chokes but he's better most of the playoffs and the season so I think doinking him under Wade is kind of just going with narrative.
Defensive Player of the Year
1 - Tim Duncan
2 - Ben Wallace
3 - Rasheed Wallace
Offensive Player of the Year
1 - Lebron James
2 - Steve Nash
3 - Dirk
2 - Lebron James
3 - Steve Nash
4 - Dirk
5 - Dwyane Wade
Math is not mathing up for me guys. Duncan is the DPOY according to here. Has 26/3/11 on great TS. Has 33/11/3 on amazing true shooting against the Mavericks and is like one game from winning. But he's not top 3 or 4 or 5? Seems like it's just wow he lost but that doesn't even make sense when he wins more games than Nash does and obviously KG does or Lebron does but maybe he was really stupid to win 63 games and just waited to play the Mavs one round later, duh!!!
Crazy to say but one and done is the one talking the most about how people played. And idk I think that's more important than wow their defense sucked so bad they almost beat the 2nd best team!!! Like you can talk about spreadsheets and EPM all you want but I don't care. If you want to explain how Duncan went from best defender to worst defender okay but no one is doing that so I'm not going to vote on it.
Can't put Wade higher. I thought he'd be a simple 1 honest but wow I didn't realize how much of it was just the finals. He's here for the playoffs but has the worst playoff stats of anyone we're talking about besides Duncan who you guys say is the best defender and Lebron who honest is probably a much better playmaker than stats show and barely has help. Lebron scores like 10 more points than nash and is a better defender, probably? If he's already this awesome playmaker with all these creations then i'm gonna have to agree Lebron is better overall. I know he's 21 but if he's that good it's whatevs.
I know Dirk chokes but he's better most of the playoffs and the season so I think doinking him under Wade is kind of just going with narrative.
Defensive Player of the Year
1 - Tim Duncan
2 - Ben Wallace
3 - Rasheed Wallace
Offensive Player of the Year
1 - Lebron James
2 - Steve Nash
3 - Dirk
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
IlikeSHAIguys wrote:Can't put Wade higher. I thought he'd be a simple 1 honest but wow I didn't realize how much of it was just the finals. He's here for the playoffs but has the worst playoff stats of anyone we're talking about besides Duncan who you guys say is the best defender and Lebron who honest is probably a much better playmaker than stats show and barely has help. Lebron scores like 10 more points than nash and is a better defender, probably? If he's already this awesome playmaker with all these creations then i'm gonna have to agree Lebron is better overall. I know he's 21 but if he's that good it's whatevs.
Why are you assuming that's not true of Nash?
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IlikeSHAIguys wrote:1 - Tim Duncan
2 - Lebron James
3 - Steve Nash
4 - Dirk
5 - Dwyane Wade
Math is not mathing up for me guys. Duncan is the DPOY according to here. Has 26/3/11 on great TS. Has 33/11/3 on amazing true shooting against the Mavericks and is like one game from winning. But he's not top 3 or 4 or 5? Seems like it's just wow he lost but that doesn't even make sense when he wins more games than Nash does and obviously KG does or Lebron does but maybe he was really stupid to win 63 games and just waited to play the Mavs one round later, duh!!!
Crazy to say but one and done is the one talking the most about how people played. And idk I think that's more important than wow their defense sucked so bad they almost beat the 2nd best team!!! Like you can talk about spreadsheets and EPM all you want but I don't care. If you want to explain how Duncan went from best defender to worst defender okay but no one is doing that so I'm not going to vote on it.
Can't put Wade higher. I thought he'd be a simple 1 honest but wow I didn't realize how much of it was just the finals. He's here for the playoffs but has the worst playoff stats of anyone we're talking about besides Duncan who you guys say is the best defender and Lebron who honest is probably a much better playmaker than stats show and barely has help. Lebron scores like 10 more points than nash and is a better defender, probably? If he's already this awesome playmaker with all these creations then i'm gonna have to agree Lebron is better overall. I know he's 21 but if he's that good it's whatevs.
I know Dirk chokes but he's better most of the playoffs and the season so I think doinking him under Wade is kind of just going with narrative.
Defensive Player of the Year
1 - Tim Duncan
2 - Ben Wallace
3 - Rasheed Wallace
Offensive Player of the Year
1 - Lebron James
2 - Steve Nash
3 - Dirk
If you look at the per 100 stats I cited, Duncan actually has much better playoff stats than Wade.
viewtopic.php?t=2430742&start=20#p116500336
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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And his defence also fell off by all those playoff numbers, but no, we need to say he was the still the “best defensive player in the league.”
Talking out of both sides of the mouth yet again.
Talking out of both sides of the mouth yet again.
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AEnigma wrote:And his defence also fell off by all those playoff numbers, but no, we need to say he was the still the “best defensive player in the league.”
Talking out of both sides of the mouth yet again.
I've been pretty clear that defensive stats are much less reliable than offensive stats. I've said that numerous times. I also think we're all aware of the dangers of playoff small sample sizes, especially when it comes to defensive stats. As usual, I'm being very consistent.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Oh of course, defence is some nebulous concept where we can never say whether declining numbers truly represent a decline, but offence is real and easily measured in small samples (seeing as evidently you do not care about Duncan having terrible offensive numbers throughout the regular season). Very convenient way to be consistent.
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AEnigma wrote:Oh of course, defence is some nebulous concept where we can never say whether declining numbers truly represent a decline, but offence is real and easily measured in small samples (seeing as evidently you do not care about Duncan having terrible offensive numbers throughout the regular season). Very convenient way to be consistent.
You literally put him as DPOY.
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AEnigma wrote:Oh of course, defence is some nebulous concept where we can never say whether declining numbers truly represent a decline, but offence is real and easily measured in small samples (seeing as evidently you do not care about Duncan having terrible offensive numbers throughout the regular season). Very convenient way to be consistent.
No, it's harder to measure, but you can still get strong indicators of defensive value. I mentioned this in my first post in the 05 thread. For instance, Duncan had the best Drtg in the NBA and his team had the top Drtg, even above their 03 Drtg in the pre-touch rule changes era. Those are strong data points over a big sample that back up what I and others observed.
Playoff Drtg? Eh. I don't care as much, it's too small a sample, which too many things can throw off. Maybe one team just got hot shooting against you and there was nothing your D could do.
I am not going to religiously cite Drtg either, like your Drtg going down 1 point might not mean anything, it's just another data point to consider. Defensive stats have long been thought to be unsatisfactory, and that is not a thought unique to me, or even to basketball. Defensive stats in baseball are alot harder to measure than offensive stats too.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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OhayoKD wrote:AEnigma wrote:Oh of course, defence is some nebulous concept where we can never say whether declining numbers truly represent a decline, but offence is real and easily measured in small samples (seeing as evidently you do not care about Duncan having terrible offensive numbers throughout the regular season). Very convenient way to be consistent.
You literally put him as DPOY.
And if you had read the reasoning I posted you would have seen that was an unnoticed misplacement.
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Since I can't vote, here's my top ten.
1. Steve Nash
I have to put him at #1. I think it's his single most impressive year in Phoenix. That Amare-less roster had no business getting anywhere near a title and he got them two games away from the Finals. Marion was his #2, but after that we're talking about Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, Tim Thomas, and James Jones, in terms of the big minute-getters. And, I mean, I know Diaw in particular played pretty much the best basketball of his career in those playoffs, but still. To get that team that close to the finals while posting +20.3 on/off in the playoffs? I am not as much of a Nash pusher as a lot of people here, but I have a hard time justifying anyone else for #1 here.
2. Dwyane Wade
I am not quite as high on Wade's playoff run as others are, mainly because I think he got a lot of help from the refs, but nonetheless it was a great playoff run and he carried what is frequently regarded as one of the weaker champions of the modern era to a title(even if I don't think Shaq gets the credit he deserves as the #2, as outlined in my previous post in this thread), beating some good teams in the process. Good box numbers, very good impact metrics, a ring. A lot of people consider this his peak year. If he doesn't get this high this season, then when? When he's putting up huge numbers on bad teams(like Garnett this season) in the late 00s? When he's playing second fiddle to LeBron on the Heatles in the early 10s? When he's past it in the mid/late 10s?
3. Dirk Nowitzki
The #1 option - by a big margin - on the runner-up. I realize he underperformed to a certain degree in the Finals, but that's why he's #3 and not #1 or #2.
High RAPM, solid on/off, huge box composites in both RS and PO(.275 WS/48 and 8.1BPM RS, .263 WS/48 and 9.2 BPM PO), no significant falloff in the playoffs, led his team to the Finals, going through Duncan's Spurs and Nash's Suns en route.
The Spurs series in particular carries some weight with me. This was the defending champion Spurs, with Duncan, Manu, and Parker all in their primes and healthy. Duncan and Manu both played incredibly well throughout the series - they were superlative - and Parker was solid enough as well, though not on the level of the other two. The Spurs had a better record and higher SRS/Net Rtg, and home court advantage. It was a herculean task to beat that team.
Game 7 in particular was amazing. One of the most memorable individual playoff duels I've ever seen. In the deciding game that goes into overtime in his own building, Duncan drops 41/15 with 6 assists and 3 blocks on 50% FG and still loses to Dirk, who puts up his own 37/15 with 3 assists and 1 block on 68.4% FG on the road.
The Spurs didn't lose that series, the Mavs won it. I consider it one of the signature playoff series victories of Dirk's entire career, perhaps the single most memorable one outside of the 2011 championship run.
I can't justify putting him any lower than this this season.
4. Tim Duncan
For this individual season, Duncan was a bit of a playoff riser - +4.2 on/off and 52.3% TS(in absolute terms, one of the two lowest TS marks of his career) in the RS, but +13.1 on/off and 62.5% TS in the PO. I think the guys I've listed above him deserve to be their for the reasons stated, but his playoff run was good enough that I can't put him lower than this. It's entirely possible that Dirk Nowitzki is the only reason Duncan wasn't the #1 on the champion this season like he was in 2005 and 2007.
5. Kobe Bryant
6. LeBron James
So, Kobe and LeBron had very similar seasons, and I had to think on it for a bit before I could decide which one makes the Top 5. Initially, I was set on Kobe. But I had honestly forgotten both that LeBron won a playoff series this year and that he nearly made the ECF - I had it in my mind that he went out in the first round. So then I had to think for a while, but I ended up back on Kobe.
They both executed what we would term carry jobs, taking underwhelming casts to the playoffs.
Their teams' regular season results were very close:
Lakers: 45W/2.53 SRS/+2.7 Net
Cavs: 50W/2.17 SRS/+2.5 Net
But the Lakers did it in the tougher conference.
At least one poster has argued that LeBron's roster was worse than Kobe's because Kobe had Odom. I'm not sure I agree with that - it seems like either Ilgauskas or Varejao might have a case against him depending on whether you value box or impact metrics more...though probably not an especially strong case, so I won't waste time making it. But even if I concede that Kobe had the superior second option, I think even as weak as the roster was, LeBron still had the superior third, fourth, fifth, etc options.
I'll take Ilgauskas/Varejao(whichever isn't #2), Eric Snow(high bball IQ defensive guy), Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall(an underrated role player, imo), Flip Murray, Damon Jones(who started on the 05 Heat team that nearly made the finals), and even Larry Hughes
over
Kwame, Smush Parker, Chris Mihm, Brian Cook, Luke Walton, Devean George, and Sasha Vujajic.
I mean, we're comparing bad to worse here, but I think on the whole 3-8 on LeBron's roster makes up the difference of Kobe having Odom.
As for the playoffs, they both pushed superior teams(Suns, Pistons) to seven games before falling.
It's a coin flip, but for me, it's the fact that Kobe did what he did in a tougher conference and had slightly better impact numbers while doing it(+12.5 on/off RS vs +10.0 on/off RS for LeBron, 5.30 RAPM vs 3.75 RAPM for LeBron) that gives Kobe the advantage for me. The fact that he recorded one of the ten highest PPG ever(including the 81 point game) on decent efficiency is icing on the cake
(Side note: Both Kobe and LeBron had bizarrely huge negative on/offs in the playoffs, which I assume has something to do with the fact that they both played nearly every minute against superior teams).
7. Kevin Garnett
It's so tough with Garnett at this stage of his career, these last few years in Minnesota. He was like a tragic figure in the league by this point. His numbers are still great, but his team didn't make the playoffs, and with all the carry jobs(Nash, Kobe, LeBron), champions(Wade), Finalists(Dirk), and players on a defending champion who played exceptionally well in the playoffs(Duncan, Manu) in consideration this season, it's just hard to put him higher than this.
8. Manu Ginobili
I had Manu in the top 5 last season, but even that was a polarizing decision given that a number of you don't buy into his impact metrics. This season, with a second round loss instead of a title, I can't have him Top 5. He was a really freaking good second option for Duncan, though.
9. Shaquille O'Neal
For all the reasons outlined in this post. Number two option on the champion, showed legitimate impact signal in the regular season, still had solid RAPM, his box numbers held up from 2005, and even though his overall playoff numbers aren't great, he had some strong performances in pivotal games.
10. Ron Artest
So there were a few guys I could've made an argument for here, but I'm going with Artest. Weird year for him, asking out of Indiana, sitting out for a bit, and then getting traded, but bare with me.
He showed similar impact signals on two different teams in one season while recording the #2 RAPM in the league in JE's set(6.62).
In the 16 games he played for the Pacers, they went 10-6, or a 51 win pace. Without Artest, the Pacers went 31-35, or 38/39 win pace. He was +9.0 in those games.
(Here I will acknowledge that Jermaine O'Neal also missed a bunch of games after Artest was traded, but others have argued that Artest was the more impactful player of the two anyway.)
In 42 games the Kings played before acquiring Artest, they went 18-24, or a 35 win pace. With him, they went 26-14, or a 53 win pace. He was +9.3 in those games.
He is probably primarily responsible for the Kings earning a playoff berth that year, and he was +18.3 on/off in the five games of that one playoff series.
1. Steve Nash
I have to put him at #1. I think it's his single most impressive year in Phoenix. That Amare-less roster had no business getting anywhere near a title and he got them two games away from the Finals. Marion was his #2, but after that we're talking about Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, Tim Thomas, and James Jones, in terms of the big minute-getters. And, I mean, I know Diaw in particular played pretty much the best basketball of his career in those playoffs, but still. To get that team that close to the finals while posting +20.3 on/off in the playoffs? I am not as much of a Nash pusher as a lot of people here, but I have a hard time justifying anyone else for #1 here.
2. Dwyane Wade
I am not quite as high on Wade's playoff run as others are, mainly because I think he got a lot of help from the refs, but nonetheless it was a great playoff run and he carried what is frequently regarded as one of the weaker champions of the modern era to a title(even if I don't think Shaq gets the credit he deserves as the #2, as outlined in my previous post in this thread), beating some good teams in the process. Good box numbers, very good impact metrics, a ring. A lot of people consider this his peak year. If he doesn't get this high this season, then when? When he's putting up huge numbers on bad teams(like Garnett this season) in the late 00s? When he's playing second fiddle to LeBron on the Heatles in the early 10s? When he's past it in the mid/late 10s?
3. Dirk Nowitzki
The #1 option - by a big margin - on the runner-up. I realize he underperformed to a certain degree in the Finals, but that's why he's #3 and not #1 or #2.
High RAPM, solid on/off, huge box composites in both RS and PO(.275 WS/48 and 8.1BPM RS, .263 WS/48 and 9.2 BPM PO), no significant falloff in the playoffs, led his team to the Finals, going through Duncan's Spurs and Nash's Suns en route.
The Spurs series in particular carries some weight with me. This was the defending champion Spurs, with Duncan, Manu, and Parker all in their primes and healthy. Duncan and Manu both played incredibly well throughout the series - they were superlative - and Parker was solid enough as well, though not on the level of the other two. The Spurs had a better record and higher SRS/Net Rtg, and home court advantage. It was a herculean task to beat that team.
Game 7 in particular was amazing. One of the most memorable individual playoff duels I've ever seen. In the deciding game that goes into overtime in his own building, Duncan drops 41/15 with 6 assists and 3 blocks on 50% FG and still loses to Dirk, who puts up his own 37/15 with 3 assists and 1 block on 68.4% FG on the road.
The Spurs didn't lose that series, the Mavs won it. I consider it one of the signature playoff series victories of Dirk's entire career, perhaps the single most memorable one outside of the 2011 championship run.
I can't justify putting him any lower than this this season.
4. Tim Duncan
For this individual season, Duncan was a bit of a playoff riser - +4.2 on/off and 52.3% TS(in absolute terms, one of the two lowest TS marks of his career) in the RS, but +13.1 on/off and 62.5% TS in the PO. I think the guys I've listed above him deserve to be their for the reasons stated, but his playoff run was good enough that I can't put him lower than this. It's entirely possible that Dirk Nowitzki is the only reason Duncan wasn't the #1 on the champion this season like he was in 2005 and 2007.
5. Kobe Bryant
6. LeBron James
So, Kobe and LeBron had very similar seasons, and I had to think on it for a bit before I could decide which one makes the Top 5. Initially, I was set on Kobe. But I had honestly forgotten both that LeBron won a playoff series this year and that he nearly made the ECF - I had it in my mind that he went out in the first round. So then I had to think for a while, but I ended up back on Kobe.
They both executed what we would term carry jobs, taking underwhelming casts to the playoffs.
Their teams' regular season results were very close:
Lakers: 45W/2.53 SRS/+2.7 Net
Cavs: 50W/2.17 SRS/+2.5 Net
But the Lakers did it in the tougher conference.
At least one poster has argued that LeBron's roster was worse than Kobe's because Kobe had Odom. I'm not sure I agree with that - it seems like either Ilgauskas or Varejao might have a case against him depending on whether you value box or impact metrics more...though probably not an especially strong case, so I won't waste time making it. But even if I concede that Kobe had the superior second option, I think even as weak as the roster was, LeBron still had the superior third, fourth, fifth, etc options.
I'll take Ilgauskas/Varejao(whichever isn't #2), Eric Snow(high bball IQ defensive guy), Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall(an underrated role player, imo), Flip Murray, Damon Jones(who started on the 05 Heat team that nearly made the finals), and even Larry Hughes
over
Kwame, Smush Parker, Chris Mihm, Brian Cook, Luke Walton, Devean George, and Sasha Vujajic.
I mean, we're comparing bad to worse here, but I think on the whole 3-8 on LeBron's roster makes up the difference of Kobe having Odom.
As for the playoffs, they both pushed superior teams(Suns, Pistons) to seven games before falling.
It's a coin flip, but for me, it's the fact that Kobe did what he did in a tougher conference and had slightly better impact numbers while doing it(+12.5 on/off RS vs +10.0 on/off RS for LeBron, 5.30 RAPM vs 3.75 RAPM for LeBron) that gives Kobe the advantage for me. The fact that he recorded one of the ten highest PPG ever(including the 81 point game) on decent efficiency is icing on the cake
(Side note: Both Kobe and LeBron had bizarrely huge negative on/offs in the playoffs, which I assume has something to do with the fact that they both played nearly every minute against superior teams).
7. Kevin Garnett
It's so tough with Garnett at this stage of his career, these last few years in Minnesota. He was like a tragic figure in the league by this point. His numbers are still great, but his team didn't make the playoffs, and with all the carry jobs(Nash, Kobe, LeBron), champions(Wade), Finalists(Dirk), and players on a defending champion who played exceptionally well in the playoffs(Duncan, Manu) in consideration this season, it's just hard to put him higher than this.
8. Manu Ginobili
I had Manu in the top 5 last season, but even that was a polarizing decision given that a number of you don't buy into his impact metrics. This season, with a second round loss instead of a title, I can't have him Top 5. He was a really freaking good second option for Duncan, though.
9. Shaquille O'Neal
For all the reasons outlined in this post. Number two option on the champion, showed legitimate impact signal in the regular season, still had solid RAPM, his box numbers held up from 2005, and even though his overall playoff numbers aren't great, he had some strong performances in pivotal games.
10. Ron Artest
So there were a few guys I could've made an argument for here, but I'm going with Artest. Weird year for him, asking out of Indiana, sitting out for a bit, and then getting traded, but bare with me.
He showed similar impact signals on two different teams in one season while recording the #2 RAPM in the league in JE's set(6.62).
In the 16 games he played for the Pacers, they went 10-6, or a 51 win pace. Without Artest, the Pacers went 31-35, or 38/39 win pace. He was +9.0 in those games.
(Here I will acknowledge that Jermaine O'Neal also missed a bunch of games after Artest was traded, but others have argued that Artest was the more impactful player of the two anyway.)
In 42 games the Kings played before acquiring Artest, they went 18-24, or a 35 win pace. With him, they went 26-14, or a 53 win pace. He was +9.3 in those games.
He is probably primarily responsible for the Kings earning a playoff berth that year, and he was +18.3 on/off in the five games of that one playoff series.
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
lessthanjake wrote:Lebronnygoat wrote:70sFan wrote:Can we even say with certainty that Wade's performance against Dallas was the best in the playoffs? Nash and Duncan did remarkably well themselves against Mavs, it wasn't their fault (or Wade's merit) that Dirk played significantly worse in the finals than in the previous two series.
No, if anything, I take back what I said about the Mavs series stacking up with the Wizards series. LeBron’s wizards series > Wade’s Mavs series. LeBron was the better scorer, (35.7 on +5.0rTS vs 34.7 on +4.0rTS), better playmaker (I’m going to presume it was a big playmaking gap but I haven’t tracked the Mavs finals), and defense might be a wash or slightly Wade, but the defense wouldn’t cover the offensive gap there is. The opponent defense is why I considered them equal but I realized Doug Christie was lost in the regular season and so was Marq Daniel’s. Idek if Wade is getting close to the amount of pressure put on him as LeBron with the players he has on his team vs LeBron. The Wizards had Caron Butler who is a better wing or guard defender than anyone on Dallas. So the defense side of things shouldn’t be a worthy point. This is just Wade being better in the common matchup and his Nets series being another great series LeBron doesn’t have, meanwhile LeBron clears in the regular season and should certainly have the better playoff series. Also, note this is important, Wade played just as bad as LeBron did in that Bulls series, and was able to make it past the 1st round, meanwhile LeBron doesn’t get that privilege… so when Wade is clearly beating LeBron in the playoffs, if you think he is, it’s probably due to him having the better team and allowing him to have more potential great series (nets series)
I don’t think this really matters all *that* much for this year, since I don’t think it relates to any real discussion for 1st place, but I really have to say that it is pretty absurd to hype up a series against the Wizards as having any comparison to a series against an actually good team. I lived in the DC area back then and watched almost every Wizards game. They were not a very good team, and had an awful defense. LeBron had a fantastic series against them, but those Wizards just weren’t a team that we should hype up playoff performances against. Comparing a series against the 2006 Wizards to a series against the 2006 Mavericks is just silly IMO. The difference between those two teams is really night and day. This would be akin to comparing Jimmy Butler’s performance against the Hawks in the 2022 playoffs to Steph’s performance in the Finals that year.
You’re not serious, the Hawks had no personal quite like the Celtics and to add on they were a bottom 4 defense, the Celtics were quite literally the best Curry could have faced that year. Name the defenders the Mavs have that somehow clear the Wizards, please do. Josh Howard is the only name. Who’s guarding D Wade better than Caron Butler? We’re comparing the defense they faced, not offense. Mavs were arguably the best offense in the 2000’s and most offensively slanted team.
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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Lebronnygoat wrote:lessthanjake wrote:Lebronnygoat wrote:No, if anything, I take back what I said about the Mavs series stacking up with the Wizards series. LeBron’s wizards series > Wade’s Mavs series. LeBron was the better scorer, (35.7 on +5.0rTS vs 34.7 on +4.0rTS), better playmaker (I’m going to presume it was a big playmaking gap but I haven’t tracked the Mavs finals), and defense might be a wash or slightly Wade, but the defense wouldn’t cover the offensive gap there is. The opponent defense is why I considered them equal but I realized Doug Christie was lost in the regular season and so was Marq Daniel’s. Idek if Wade is getting close to the amount of pressure put on him as LeBron with the players he has on his team vs LeBron. The Wizards had Caron Butler who is a better wing or guard defender than anyone on Dallas. So the defense side of things shouldn’t be a worthy point. This is just Wade being better in the common matchup and his Nets series being another great series LeBron doesn’t have, meanwhile LeBron clears in the regular season and should certainly have the better playoff series. Also, note this is important, Wade played just as bad as LeBron did in that Bulls series, and was able to make it past the 1st round, meanwhile LeBron doesn’t get that privilege… so when Wade is clearly beating LeBron in the playoffs, if you think he is, it’s probably due to him having the better team and allowing him to have more potential great series (nets series)
I don’t think this really matters all *that* much for this year, since I don’t think it relates to any real discussion for 1st place, but I really have to say that it is pretty absurd to hype up a series against the Wizards as having any comparison to a series against an actually good team. I lived in the DC area back then and watched almost every Wizards game. They were not a very good team, and had an awful defense. LeBron had a fantastic series against them, but those Wizards just weren’t a team that we should hype up playoff performances against. Comparing a series against the 2006 Wizards to a series against the 2006 Mavericks is just silly IMO. The difference between those two teams is really night and day. This would be akin to comparing Jimmy Butler’s performance against the Hawks in the 2022 playoffs to Steph’s performance in the Finals that year.
You’re not serious, the Hawks had no personal quite like the Celtics and to add on they were a bottom 4 defense, the Celtics were quite literally the best Curry could have faced that year. Name the defenders the Mavs have that somehow clear the Wizards, please do. Who’s guarding D Wade better than Caron Butler? We’re comparing the defense they faced, not offense. Mavs were arguably the best offense in the 2000’s and most offensively slanted team.
If you think that the 2006 Mavericks weren’t a way better team defensively than the 2006 Wizards and that playing well against the Wizards in the first round should actually be compared to playing well against the Mavericks in the Finals, then I really just don’t know what to tell you. You are obviously not old enough to have watched the 2006 Wizards. I was, and I watched almost all their games (regular season and playoffs). They were a bad team defensively (and also just not very good in general). The point of analogizing to the 2022 Hawks is not that they’re the exact same teams (of course they aren’t!), but rather to say that no one really cares how well Jimmy Butler played against the 2022 Hawks because it was a first round series against a team that really wasn’t good. No one would or should compare that performance to someone’s performance in a Finals series. The same is true of LeBron’s 2006 series against the Wizards.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
1. Duncan (Down year RS sort of but still tops the league 63 wins and +6 SRS and should have won DPOY. Also plays the best vs the Mavs with 32/12/4/3 on 62 TS% and the Spurs nearly win)
2. Nash (Still leads the league’s best offense and wins 54 without Amare. Great against Dallas but D is a problem. Deserved MVP.)
3. Wade (Great playoff run especially the finals. But prolly has the worst regular season of the top 4 and Duncan is prolly much better vs the Mavs anyway.)
4. Lebron (Lose Boozer but still get better. Lebron also has an awesome first series and cavs scare pistons though Lebron doesn’t play great )
5. Dirk (Great before the finals though he falls off pretty bad there. )
2. Nash (Still leads the league’s best offense and wins 54 without Amare. Great against Dallas but D is a problem. Deserved MVP.)
3. Wade (Great playoff run especially the finals. But prolly has the worst regular season of the top 4 and Duncan is prolly much better vs the Mavs anyway.)
4. Lebron (Lose Boozer but still get better. Lebron also has an awesome first series and cavs scare pistons though Lebron doesn’t play great )
5. Dirk (Great before the finals though he falls off pretty bad there. )
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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That's right, kick the Wizards when they're down . . . and they are always down.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
Wade is a relatively easy #1 here. I always vote for a guy who is a superstar in the RS then goes supernova in the last two rounds of the playoffs to win the title. Not to mention Wade carried what was a relatively weak supporting cast outside of Shaq. And Shaq himself also laid an egg in the Finals so it was an historic carry-job by Wade there. Second best player for the Heat in the Finals was maybe Zo off the bench. His D made a difference. The argument that Wade isn't the POY because the Heat wouldn't have won a ring against the Spurs or Suns is the most insane standard to hold a player to. And of course there's no way to prove they wouldn't beat those teams.
Other candidates for the ballot are Kobe, Duncan, Dirk, Nash, Lebron and KG. And in a year as strong as this, KG is out for me. Not making the PS too much to overcome. If just looking at how good they are in a vacuum, Kobe and Duncan are probably the top 2 but results also matter. Won't be an easy ballot to put together.
Other candidates for the ballot are Kobe, Duncan, Dirk, Nash, Lebron and KG. And in a year as strong as this, KG is out for me. Not making the PS too much to overcome. If just looking at how good they are in a vacuum, Kobe and Duncan are probably the top 2 but results also matter. Won't be an easy ballot to put together.
Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
Lebronnygoat wrote:lessthanjake wrote:Lebronnygoat wrote:No, if anything, I take back what I said about the Mavs series stacking up with the Wizards series. LeBron’s wizards series > Wade’s Mavs series. LeBron was the better scorer, (35.7 on +5.0rTS vs 34.7 on +4.0rTS), better playmaker (I’m going to presume it was a big playmaking gap but I haven’t tracked the Mavs finals), and defense might be a wash or slightly Wade, but the defense wouldn’t cover the offensive gap there is. The opponent defense is why I considered them equal but I realized Doug Christie was lost in the regular season and so was Marq Daniel’s. Idek if Wade is getting close to the amount of pressure put on him as LeBron with the players he has on his team vs LeBron. The Wizards had Caron Butler who is a better wing or guard defender than anyone on Dallas. So the defense side of things shouldn’t be a worthy point. This is just Wade being better in the common matchup and his Nets series being another great series LeBron doesn’t have, meanwhile LeBron clears in the regular season and should certainly have the better playoff series. Also, note this is important, Wade played just as bad as LeBron did in that Bulls series, and was able to make it past the 1st round, meanwhile LeBron doesn’t get that privilege… so when Wade is clearly beating LeBron in the playoffs, if you think he is, it’s probably due to him having the better team and allowing him to have more potential great series (nets series)
I don’t think this really matters all *that* much for this year, since I don’t think it relates to any real discussion for 1st place, but I really have to say that it is pretty absurd to hype up a series against the Wizards as having any comparison to a series against an actually good team. I lived in the DC area back then and watched almost every Wizards game. They were not a very good team, and had an awful defense. LeBron had a fantastic series against them, but those Wizards just weren’t a team that we should hype up playoff performances against. Comparing a series against the 2006 Wizards to a series against the 2006 Mavericks is just silly IMO. The difference between those two teams is really night and day. This would be akin to comparing Jimmy Butler’s performance against the Hawks in the 2022 playoffs to Steph’s performance in the Finals that year.
You’re not serious, the Hawks had no personal quite like the Celtics and to add on they were a bottom 4 defense, the Celtics were quite literally the best Curry could have faced that year. Name the defenders the Mavs have that somehow clear the Wizards, please do. Josh Howard is the only name. Who’s guarding D Wade better than Caron Butler? We’re comparing the defense they faced, not offense. Mavs were arguably the best offense in the 2000’s and most offensively slanted team.
My guy, the Wizards were the 8th worst defense in the entire association. Individual matchups are irrelevant when the team is that anemic overall. We saw that series, the Wizards were not playing defense.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 2005-06 UPDATE
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The Wizards were throwing harder coverages at LeBron than they were Wade especially with the pieces Wade had and the situation LeBron was in.
LeBron has a higher defensive load, offensive load, coupled with a worse offensive situation. How in the world does LeBron having more loading up in the backline and harder or just as hard individual defense than Wade not matter? Is all you can resort to is the team DRTG? Thats surface level thinking. If you care about what I said at all, you’d realize opponent defense wouldn’t be some landslide in Wade’s favor. Also, we see the Cavs as a team shoot -2.2rTS, and their highest scorers are Larry Hughes at 12.3, Ronald Murray at 11.0, and Donyell Marshall at 10.5. So if the Wizards weren’t playing defense, I wonder why LeBron’s team was that bad? Shouldn’t a top 9 offense be able to be efficient vs this horrendous defense that didn’t play defense at all? Make it make sense…
LeBron has a higher defensive load, offensive load, coupled with a worse offensive situation. How in the world does LeBron having more loading up in the backline and harder or just as hard individual defense than Wade not matter? Is all you can resort to is the team DRTG? Thats surface level thinking. If you care about what I said at all, you’d realize opponent defense wouldn’t be some landslide in Wade’s favor. Also, we see the Cavs as a team shoot -2.2rTS, and their highest scorers are Larry Hughes at 12.3, Ronald Murray at 11.0, and Donyell Marshall at 10.5. So if the Wizards weren’t playing defense, I wonder why LeBron’s team was that bad? Shouldn’t a top 9 offense be able to be efficient vs this horrendous defense that didn’t play defense at all? Make it make sense…