Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 8

[Vampirate]

Ultimately two of 3 areas have to improve for him to really draw defenders to him. Midrange + FTr, Midrange + 3P%, FTr + 3P%. Just hitting midrange jumpers and being a bad 3PT shooter and not drawing fouls is tough for offensive efficiency overall. Those are the single coverage shots that defenses are okay with.

It's all just going to depend on how much his mid range is feared.

Are defenses going to Preemptively jump to block it? There was evidence of this in the Cavs game where he got both Allen and wade out of the paint following him.

Being mainly mid range only can work, but he'd have to be the best of the best with it.

He'd basically have to both be exceedingly good at it and have no conscious shooting it at will.

An example is Curry with the 3, he can go 1-15 from 3 but defenses are just going to fear him if he ever heats up. His impact goes beyond his stats in a single game.

The more defenses fear a shot, the more they bite on it, scheme for it.

Ultimately I think he needs to add a step back jumper in both the 3 and the mid range. He's just with a fadeaway but i'd like him to see the court better, not so much back behind the basket.


The other thing is he needs to speed up the time he gets into his shots.

[Scase]

Ultimately two of 3 areas have to improve for him to really draw defenders to him. Midrange + FTr, Midrange + 3P%, FTr + 3P%. Just hitting midrange jumpers and being a bad 3PT shooter and not drawing fouls is tough for offensive efficiency overall. Those are the single coverage shots that defenses are okay with.

It's all just going to depend on how much his mid range is feared.

Are defenses going to Preemptively jump to block it? There was evidence of this in the Cavs game where he got both Allen and wade out of the paint following him.

Being mainly mid range only can work, but he'd have to be the best of the best with it.

He'd basically have to both be exceedingly good at it and have no conscious shooting it at will.

An example is Curry with the 3, he can go 1-15 from 3 but defenses are just going to fear him if he ever heats up. His impact goes beyond his stats in a single game.

The more defenses fear a shot, the more they bite on it, scheme for it.

Ultimately I think he needs to add a step back jumper in both the 3 and the mid range. He's just with a fadeaway but i'd like him to see the court better, not so much back behind the basket.


The other thing is he needs to speed up the time he gets into his shots.

I think him being an elite MR shooter is more realistic than a good 3p shooter. Whether or not he gets there is a different story entirely.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Ultimately two of 3 areas have to improve for him to really draw defenders to him. Midrange + FTr, Midrange + 3P%, FTr + 3P%. Just hitting midrange jumpers and being a bad 3PT shooter and not drawing fouls is tough for offensive efficiency overall. Those are the single coverage shots that defenses are okay with.

It's all just going to depend on how much his mid range is feared.

Are defenses going to Preemptively jump to block it? There was evidence of this in the Cavs game where he got both Allen and wade out of the paint following him.

Being mainly mid range only can work, but he'd have to be the best of the best with it.

He'd basically have to both be exceedingly good at it and have no conscious shooting it at will.

An example is Curry with the 3, he can go 1-15 from 3 but defenses are just going to fear him if he ever heats up. His impact goes beyond his stats in a single game.

The more defenses fear a shot, the more they bite on it, scheme for it.

Ultimately I think he needs to add a step back jumper in both the 3 and the mid range. He's just with a fadeaway but i'd like him to see the court better, not so much back behind the basket.


The other thing is he needs to speed up the time he gets into his shots.

Agree with most of this but really I can't see a productive offense this way. The example is Curry, the best shooter of all time, shooting a 3. If Scottie was taking 15 midrange 2s in any game we'd be in trouble, no? I know someone posted some propaganda comparing Scottie to SGA's percentages earlier, but SGA has a large advantage drawing fouls. I think he might be around 2X the FTAs per 36. And a lot of that is just... ballhandling excellence.

[Vampirate]

Ultimately two of 3 areas have to improve for him to really draw defenders to him. Midrange + FTr, Midrange + 3P%, FTr + 3P%. Just hitting midrange jumpers and being a bad 3PT shooter and not drawing fouls is tough for offensive efficiency overall. Those are the single coverage shots that defenses are okay with.

It's all just going to depend on how much his mid range is feared.

Are defenses going to Preemptively jump to block it? There was evidence of this in the Cavs game where he got both Allen and wade out of the paint following him.

Being mainly mid range only can work, but he'd have to be the best of the best with it.

He'd basically have to both be exceedingly good at it and have no conscious shooting it at will.

An example is Curry with the 3, he can go 1-15 from 3 but defenses are just going to fear him if he ever heats up. His impact goes beyond his stats in a single game.

The more defenses fear a shot, the more they bite on it, scheme for it.

Ultimately I think he needs to add a step back jumper in both the 3 and the mid range. He's just with a fadeaway but i'd like him to see the court better, not so much back behind the basket.


The other thing is he needs to speed up the time he gets into his shots.

I think him being an elite MR shooter is more realistic than a good 3p shooter. Whether or not he gets there is a different story entirely.

His shot diet so far is

0-3 - 19.5%
3-10 - 24.6%
10-16 - 16.%
16-3P - 8.4%
3P - 31.6%

I don't mind where his percentages at the rim and 10-16 feet are.

What i'd like is for both his 3P to drop some and 3-10 feet to drop some, put that into the 16-3P area.

He needs to draw defenders from the paint as far out as possible. Hopefully by getting to the 16-3P area, it will up his efficiency from 3 naturally.

Ideally (0-3) 20%, 3-10) 20%, (10-16) 20%, (16-3P) 15%, (3P) 25% is what his final form should be.

You can drop the 25% of his 3s to 20% and put that 5% somewhere else, but we need him to keep spreading his shots out further.

Also he's a career .380% shooter from 16-3P so this isn't an impossible ask.


As for the pull up 3, maybe his has some potential to work on that in the corner 3 as distance wise, it's a long 2.

He's taking the majority of his shots from 1 area of the court, so he might as well master that area for both 2s and 3s.

[Vampirate]

Ultimately two of 3 areas have to improve for him to really draw defenders to him. Midrange + FTr, Midrange + 3P%, FTr + 3P%. Just hitting midrange jumpers and being a bad 3PT shooter and not drawing fouls is tough for offensive efficiency overall. Those are the single coverage shots that defenses are okay with.

It's all just going to depend on how much his mid range is feared.

Are defenses going to Preemptively jump to block it? There was evidence of this in the Cavs game where he got both Allen and wade out of the paint following him.

Being mainly mid range only can work, but he'd have to be the best of the best with it.

He'd basically have to both be exceedingly good at it and have no conscious shooting it at will.

An example is Curry with the 3, he can go 1-15 from 3 but defenses are just going to fear him if he ever heats up. His impact goes beyond his stats in a single game.

The more defenses fear a shot, the more they bite on it, scheme for it.

Ultimately I think he needs to add a step back jumper in both the 3 and the mid range. He's just with a fadeaway but i'd like him to see the court better, not so much back behind the basket.


The other thing is he needs to speed up the time he gets into his shots.

Agree with most of this but really I can't see a productive offense this way. The example is Curry, the best shooter of all time, shooting a 3. If Scottie was taking 15 midrange 2s in any game we'd be in trouble, no? I know someone posted some propaganda comparing Scottie to SGA's percentages earlier, but SGA has a large advantage drawing fouls. I think he might be around 2X the FTAs per 36. And a lot of that is just... ballhandling excellence.

Well like I said, in order for Barnes to abandon the 3 for the midrange, he needs to be HoF good from there.

If he ever gets feared, he'll draw FTs because defenses will react differently to him.

The real hope is he keeps expanding his mid range to the 16-3P area which will hopefully help his 3P shooting.

We essentially need him to be a Kawhi esque.

Not saying this will happen, but it's what we need until we get someone that everyone can see is better, including himself.

[ATLTimekeeper]

It's all just going to depend on how much his mid range is feared.

Are defenses going to Preemptively jump to block it? There was evidence of this in the Cavs game where he got both Allen and wade out of the paint following him.

Being mainly mid range only can work, but he'd have to be the best of the best with it.

He'd basically have to both be exceedingly good at it and have no conscious shooting it at will.

An example is Curry with the 3, he can go 1-15 from 3 but defenses are just going to fear him if he ever heats up. His impact goes beyond his stats in a single game.

The more defenses fear a shot, the more they bite on it, scheme for it.

Ultimately I think he needs to add a step back jumper in both the 3 and the mid range. He's just with a fadeaway but i'd like him to see the court better, not so much back behind the basket.


The other thing is he needs to speed up the time he gets into his shots.

Agree with most of this but really I can't see a productive offense this way. The example is Curry, the best shooter of all time, shooting a 3. If Scottie was taking 15 midrange 2s in any game we'd be in trouble, no? I know someone posted some propaganda comparing Scottie to SGA's percentages earlier, but SGA has a large advantage drawing fouls. I think he might be around 2X the FTAs per 36. And a lot of that is just... ballhandling excellence.

Well like I said, in order for Barnes to abandon the 3 for the midrange, he needs to be HoF good from there.

If he ever gets feared, he'll draw FTs because defenses will react differently to him.

The real hope is he keeps expanding his mid range to the 16-3P area which will hopefully help his 3P shooting.

We essentially need him to be a Kawhi esque.

Not saying this will happen, but it's what we need until we get someone that everyone can see is better, including himself.

Unless he turns into Dirk? I don't really see that being viable. Frankly, in this NBA even Dirk would be moving out to the 3PT line to conduct most of his business.

These guys that are great at drawing fouls with their jump shot are also a threat to get to the rim and score with their handle. This is Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, etc.

[Vampirate]

Agree with most of this but really I can't see a productive offense this way. The example is Curry, the best shooter of all time, shooting a 3. If Scottie was taking 15 midrange 2s in any game we'd be in trouble, no? I know someone posted some propaganda comparing Scottie to SGA's percentages earlier, but SGA has a large advantage drawing fouls. I think he might be around 2X the FTAs per 36. And a lot of that is just... ballhandling excellence.

Well like I said, in order for Barnes to abandon the 3 for the midrange, he needs to be HoF good from there.

If he ever gets feared, he'll draw FTs because defenses will react differently to him.

The real hope is he keeps expanding his mid range to the 16-3P area which will hopefully help his 3P shooting.

We essentially need him to be a Kawhi esque.

Not saying this will happen, but it's what we need until we get someone that everyone can see is better, including himself.

Unless he turns into Dirk? I don't really see that being viable. Frankly, in this NBA even Dirk would be moving out to the 3PT line to conduct most of his business.

These guys that are great at drawing fouls with their jump shot are also a threat to get to the rim and score with their handle. This is Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, etc.

Dirk is a horrible comparison to what I meant.

Dirks career shot diet is:

0-3 - ft 14%
3-10 - ft 8.3%
10-16 ft - 24.4%
16-3P - 31.3%
3P - 22%

Total mid range percentage is 55.7%

In contrast here's Kawhi who's also an excellent mid range shooter

Kawhi's career shot diet

0-3 ft - 21%
3-10 ft - 16.4%
10-16 ft - 19.2%
16-3p - 15.3%
3P - 28.1%

Total midrange percentage is 34.5%


There's a huge difference between the 2.


The best of the best are good everywhere, and you need that shot to counter defenses clogging the paint.

So I don't want him to be Dirk, but Kawhi yes.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Well like I said, in order for Barnes to abandon the 3 for the midrange, he needs to be HoF good from there.

If he ever gets feared, he'll draw FTs because defenses will react differently to him.

The real hope is he keeps expanding his mid range to the 16-3P area which will hopefully help his 3P shooting.

We essentially need him to be a Kawhi esque.

Not saying this will happen, but it's what we need until we get someone that everyone can see is better, including himself.

Unless he turns into Dirk? I don't really see that being viable. Frankly, in this NBA even Dirk would be moving out to the 3PT line to conduct most of his business.

These guys that are great at drawing fouls with their jump shot are also a threat to get to the rim and score with their handle. This is Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, etc.

Dirk is a horrible comparison to what I meant.

Dirks career shot diet is:

0-3 - ft 14%
3-10 - ft 8.3%
10-16 ft - 24.4%
16-3P - 31.3%
3P - 22%

Total mid range percentage is 55.7%

In contrast here's Kawhi who's also an excellent mid range shooter

Kawhi's career shot diet

0-3 ft - 21%
3-10 ft - 16.4%
10-16 ft - 19.2%
16-3p - 15.3%
3P - 28.1%

Total midrange percentage is 34.5%


There's a huge difference between the 2.


The best of the best are good everywhere, and you need that shot to counter defenses clogging the paint.

So I don't want him to be Dirk, but Kawhi yes.

But Kawhi was also always a threat from 3. This is impossible to argue because he was already a guy that had to be guarded all the way out to the 3PT line, which means it's already easier to get by one line of defense and into the next and that makes it easier to draw fouls. If you are only good from midrange and not good at 3s, why is a team sending bodies to stop your long 2s? Forget %s for a second and look at total volume. Even Kawhi in his prime is not shooting more than 6 midrange shots a game and not getting over 50% on those shots. This shot type is falling off dramatically in volume. It's mostly the refuge for scoring opportunities when the paint and the 3PT line are taken away.

This scenario requires the game to change along with Scottie improving to a hall of fame level.

[Ell Curry]

I think of it a little like this:

------------Quickley-------------
SG------------------------------SF
--------------------Barnes--------
-------Poeltl-----------------------

as what will be our base halfcourt setup. Quickley is good above the break, Barnes will hopefully keep developing as a PF and then obviously we need to draft an elite wing this year or next. Poeltl is fine and maybe Gradey, Agbaji or Walter can be one of the starting wings and the other 2 are the backup wings. Obviously we need a legit starting wing who can hit 3s and play defence at the other wing spot.

A 3+D center would give us an actually modern NBA setup where we could play 5 out and if they put a big on Barnes, we have the center go inside, and if they don't, our center pulls out there and Barnes can probably be good in the post against most modern 4s (who are not as strong as him) with 4 shooters around him and nobody protecting the rim. Sadly, those are difficult to find. But if we can draft the wings the next 2 years with the 3 firsts, we can possibly make our big Mitchell/Gobert cash-in picks trade in 2-3 years be for that kind of big. Odds are we never get him, though. If that's the case, we need seriously elite shooting on the wing that doesn't kill us defensively.

[Vampirate]

Unless he turns into Dirk? I don't really see that being viable. Frankly, in this NBA even Dirk would be moving out to the 3PT line to conduct most of his business.

These guys that are great at drawing fouls with their jump shot are also a threat to get to the rim and score with their handle. This is Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, etc.

Dirk is a horrible comparison to what I meant.

Dirks career shot diet is:

0-3 - ft 14%
3-10 - ft 8.3%
10-16 ft - 24.4%
16-3P - 31.3%
3P - 22%

Total mid range percentage is 55.7%

In contrast here's Kawhi who's also an excellent mid range shooter

Kawhi's career shot diet

0-3 ft - 21%
3-10 ft - 16.4%
10-16 ft - 19.2%
16-3p - 15.3%
3P - 28.1%

Total midrange percentage is 34.5%


There's a huge difference between the 2.


The best of the best are good everywhere, and you need that shot to counter defenses clogging the paint.

So I don't want him to be Dirk, but Kawhi yes.

But Kawhi was also always a threat from 3. This is impossible to argue because he was already a guy that had to be guarded all the way out to the 3PT line, which means it's already easier to get by one line of defense and into the next and that makes it easier to draw fouls. If you are only good from midrange and not good at 3s, why is a team sending bodies to stop your long 2s? Forget %s for a second and look at total volume. Even Kawhi in his prime is not shooting more than 6 midrange shots a game and not getting over 50% on those shots. This shot type is falling off dramatically in volume. It's mostly the refuge for scoring opportunities when the paint and the 3PT line are taken away.

This scenario requires the game to change along with Scottie improving to a hall of fame level.

This is where I differ from Scase, he said he's willing to go through short term pains on the midrange, but apparently not on the 3.

I want Barnes to be a threat everywhere.

Ultimately Barnes needs a go to move in both areas (mid rage and 3), and can't be locked to an x amount of 3s. I just wish he knew when it's time to stop shooting the 3s like when he went 2-12 from 3 in the Pels game.

Barnes has statistically gotten better at the pull up 3 but it's still nowhere near good, but it's not god awful as it was last year so that's progress.

Anyways since he's good at 3-10 feet, it's likely better that him being good at 10-16ft is more sustainable.

Just keep expanding the range inside the arc and outside the arc.

[canada_dry]

Agree with most of this but really I can't see a productive offense this way. The example is Curry, the best shooter of all time, shooting a 3. If Scottie was taking 15 midrange 2s in any game we'd be in trouble, no? I know someone posted some propaganda comparing Scottie to SGA's percentages earlier, but SGA has a large advantage drawing fouls. I think he might be around 2X the FTAs per 36. And a lot of that is just... ballhandling excellence.

Well like I said, in order for Barnes to abandon the 3 for the midrange, he needs to be HoF good from there.

If he ever gets feared, he'll draw FTs because defenses will react differently to him.

The real hope is he keeps expanding his mid range to the 16-3P area which will hopefully help his 3P shooting.

We essentially need him to be a Kawhi esque.

Not saying this will happen, but it's what we need until we get someone that everyone can see is better, including himself.

Unless he turns into Dirk? I don't really see that being viable. Frankly, in this NBA even Dirk would be moving out to the 3PT line to conduct most of his business.

These guys that are great at drawing fouls with their jump shot are also a threat to get to the rim and score with their handle. This is Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, etc.

Nah. Dirk shot 50% from mid range on high volume. You shoot like that its not gonna be taken away. He would trade SOME of those for 3's in this era. Sure.

But you wouldn't ask kd to .stop shooting mid range shots. Dirk was just as good from there if not better. He has the case for GOAT mid range shooter.

Your greater point about scottie getting there or not ...valid. Very valid.

I Just had to put some respect on dirks mid range game. it aint changing regardless of era.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

[Scase]

It's all just going to depend on how much his mid range is feared.

Are defenses going to Preemptively jump to block it? There was evidence of this in the Cavs game where he got both Allen and wade out of the paint following him.

Being mainly mid range only can work, but he'd have to be the best of the best with it.

He'd basically have to both be exceedingly good at it and have no conscious shooting it at will.

An example is Curry with the 3, he can go 1-15 from 3 but defenses are just going to fear him if he ever heats up. His impact goes beyond his stats in a single game.

The more defenses fear a shot, the more they bite on it, scheme for it.

Ultimately I think he needs to add a step back jumper in both the 3 and the mid range. He's just with a fadeaway but i'd like him to see the court better, not so much back behind the basket.


The other thing is he needs to speed up the time he gets into his shots.

I think him being an elite MR shooter is more realistic than a good 3p shooter. Whether or not he gets there is a different story entirely.

His shot diet so far is

0-3 - 19.5%
3-10 - 24.6%
10-16 - 16.%
16-3P - 8.4%
3P - 31.6%

I don't mind where his percentages at the rim and 10-16 feet are.

What i'd like is for both his 3P to drop some and 3-10 feet to drop some, put that into the 16-3P area.

He needs to draw defenders from the paint as far out as possible. Hopefully by getting to the 16-3P area, it will up his efficiency from 3 naturally.

Ideally (0-3) 20%, 3-10) 20%, (10-16) 20%, (16-3P) 15%, (3P) 25% is what his final form should be.

You can drop the 25% of his 3s to 20% and put that 5% somewhere else, but we need him to keep spreading his shots out further.

Also he's a career .380% shooter from 16-3P so this isn't an impossible ask.


As for the pull up 3, maybe his has some potential to work on that in the corner 3 as distance wise, it's a long 2.

He's taking the majority of his shots from 1 area of the court, so he might as well master that area for both 2s and 3s.

I agree in theory, but the 16-3p shot is the least efficient one in basketball, he is also abysmal at it this season. Shots from that range aren't shots you "choose" to take, those are shots you are "stuck" taking.

You don't want to plan around having to take those shots intentionally too much, it crowds your 3p shooters, it puts very little pressure on the defence (unless you are a decent 3p shooter), and completely takes away any chance to reliably draw fouls. It's like the bermuda triangle of basketball.

I'm curious what the league average is for 16-3p shots.

[tsherkin]

I'm curious what the league average is for 16-3p shots.

39.5%, right now.

[Scase]

I'm curious what the league average is for 16-3p shots.

39.5%, right now.

Yikes, not only is he below average, but that is inefficient as hell. I can't see any reason we should be increasing his volume in that range.

[tsherkin]

I'm curious what the league average is for 16-3p shots.

39.5%, right now.

Yikes, not only is he below average, but that is inefficient as hell. I can't see any reason we should be increasing his volume in that range.

Oh yeah, he's trash garbage at it right now, but he's also barely taking the shot, and that percentage is actually well below his career average. He shot 37.8% as a rook, then 36.1%, then 44.6%. He's holding around 8% proportion of his total volume, so it's hard to get a bead on his actual proficiency there, he just isn't clicking so far over 26 games on very small sample. We're talking about 36 FGA so far this season, after all.

[ConSarnit]

Dirk is a horrible comparison to what I meant.

Dirks career shot diet is:

0-3 - ft 14%
3-10 - ft 8.3%
10-16 ft - 24.4%
16-3P - 31.3%
3P - 22%

Total mid range percentage is 55.7%

In contrast here's Kawhi who's also an excellent mid range shooter

Kawhi's career shot diet

0-3 ft - 21%
3-10 ft - 16.4%
10-16 ft - 19.2%
16-3p - 15.3%
3P - 28.1%

Total midrange percentage is 34.5%


There's a huge difference between the 2.


The best of the best are good everywhere, and you need that shot to counter defenses clogging the paint.

So I don't want him to be Dirk, but Kawhi yes.

But Kawhi was also always a threat from 3. This is impossible to argue because he was already a guy that had to be guarded all the way out to the 3PT line, which means it's already easier to get by one line of defense and into the next and that makes it easier to draw fouls. If you are only good from midrange and not good at 3s, why is a team sending bodies to stop your long 2s? Forget %s for a second and look at total volume. Even Kawhi in his prime is not shooting more than 6 midrange shots a game and not getting over 50% on those shots. This shot type is falling off dramatically in volume. It's mostly the refuge for scoring opportunities when the paint and the 3PT line are taken away.

This scenario requires the game to change along with Scottie improving to a hall of fame level.

This is where I differ from Scase, he said he's willing to go through short term pains on the midrange, but apparently not on the 3.

I want Barnes to be a threat everywhere.

Ultimately Barnes needs a go to move in both areas (mid rage and 3), and can't be locked to an x amount of 3s. I just wish he knew when it's time to stop shooting the 3s like when he went 2-12 from 3 in the Pels game.

Barnes has statistically gotten better at the pull up 3 but it's still nowhere near good, but it's not god awful as it was last year so that's progress.

Anyways since he's good at 3-10 feet, it's likely better that him being good at 10-16ft is more sustainable.

Just keep expanding the range inside the arc and outside the arc.

There is not a lot of precedent for a guy like Barnes becoming a shooting threat.

Midrange: the elite midrange guys (Durant, Steph, Kyrie) are all great free throw shooters. Barnes probably has the worst career FT% of anyone who would attempt to make a living in the midrange. Looking at his shot breakdown he's doing well with floaters and turn around jumpers in the midrange. I don't know if this suggests he'll ever be able to fully scale up considering he can't really just pull-up into a midranger in the way Kawhi or Durant does.

Free Throw Rate: he's really not adept at drawing free throws. Demar's and Kawhi's worst FTr years are still better than Barnes best. Demar draws free throws at a significantly higher rate than Barnes and has been doing so since day 1.

As far as trying to make someone an all-around shooter goes Barnes is probably the worst FT shooter of anyone who has become "good". His free throw rate is only matched by guys who are really good 3pt shooters.

He has a solid "go-to" move this year in the form of a turn around midrange jumper, which he hits at 50%. For a player with his usage his FTr is sort of bad and his 3pt shooting has been very bad outside of a 2 month hot streak last year.

Honestly, it's not looking great when trying to figure out how Barnes is going to score efficiently in a 1st option on-ball type role. Middling FTr and bad 3pt shooting is not a recipe for a good scorer. His ideal scoring role might end up being a 2nd/3rd-ish option where he isn't asked to create for himself as much. Barnes being good in the midrange is probably the worst "best" outcome. 3pt shooting or getting to the line would be much more valuable to his game. He needs to become competent at one or the other and he's not off to a good start.

[Scase]

But Kawhi was also always a threat from 3. This is impossible to argue because he was already a guy that had to be guarded all the way out to the 3PT line, which means it's already easier to get by one line of defense and into the next and that makes it easier to draw fouls. If you are only good from midrange and not good at 3s, why is a team sending bodies to stop your long 2s? Forget %s for a second and look at total volume. Even Kawhi in his prime is not shooting more than 6 midrange shots a game and not getting over 50% on those shots. This shot type is falling off dramatically in volume. It's mostly the refuge for scoring opportunities when the paint and the 3PT line are taken away.

This scenario requires the game to change along with Scottie improving to a hall of fame level.

This is where I differ from Scase, he said he's willing to go through short term pains on the midrange, but apparently not on the 3.

I want Barnes to be a threat everywhere.

Ultimately Barnes needs a go to move in both areas (mid rage and 3), and can't be locked to an x amount of 3s. I just wish he knew when it's time to stop shooting the 3s like when he went 2-12 from 3 in the Pels game.

Barnes has statistically gotten better at the pull up 3 but it's still nowhere near good, but it's not god awful as it was last year so that's progress.

Anyways since he's good at 3-10 feet, it's likely better that him being good at 10-16ft is more sustainable.

Just keep expanding the range inside the arc and outside the arc.

There is not a lot of precedent for a guy like Barnes becoming a shooting threat.

Midrange: the elite midrange guys (Durant, Steph, Kyrie) are all great free throw shooters. Barnes probably has the worst career FT% of anyone who would attempt to make a living in the midrange. Looking at his shot breakdown he's doing well with floaters and turn around jumpers in the midrange. I don't know if this suggests he'll ever be able to fully scale up considering he can't really just pull-up into a midranger in the way Kawhi or Durant does.

Free Throw Rate: he's really not adept at drawing free throws. Demar's and Kawhi's worst FTr years are still better than Barnes best. Demar draws free throws at a significantly higher rate than Barnes and has been doing so since day 1.

As far as trying to make someone an all-around shooter goes Barnes is probably the worst FT shooter of anyone who has become "good". His free throw rate is only matched by guys who are really good 3pt shooters.

He has a solid "go-to" move this year in the form of a turn around midrange jumper, which he hits at 50%. For a player with his usage his FTr is sort of bad and his 3pt shooting has been very bad outside of a 2 month hot streak last year.

Honestly, it's not looking great when trying to figure out how Barnes is going to score efficiently in a 1st option on-ball type role. Middling FTr and bad 3pt shooting is not a recipe for a good scorer. His ideal scoring role might end up being a 2nd/3rd-ish option where he isn't asked to create for himself as much. Barnes being good in the midrange is probably the worst "best" outcome. 3pt shooting or getting to the line would be much more valuable to his game. He needs to become competent at one or the other and he's not off to a good start.

MR is the most realistic option for him to actually achieve, I don't think anyone is confused on whether or not he will be a 1st option, he is quite obviously a 2nd/3rd option. So him being a 3 level scorer is not only not a realistic goal, but it's not even one we need to aim for.

Being a true 3p threat, or having a high FTr are better than just a MR game for sure, but one of those is (3p) just probably never gonna happen, while FTr can definitely be worked on, especially if he is primarily operating from the MR.

For a guy that doesn't have an innate or refined scoring ability, I think we need to double down on what he already shows competency in, as opposed to trying to teach him something that he's not even at a "beginner" level in his 4th year.

[tsherkin]

MR is the most realistic option for him to actually achieve, I don't think anyone is confused on whether or not he will be a 1st option, he is quite obviously a 2nd/3rd option. So him being a 3 level scorer is not only not a realistic goal, but it's not even one we need to aim for.

That's about where I am sitting on him in year 4 with what we've seen to date. There are some skills which are fairly difficult to develop once you've already hit the NBA, and that's basically what he needs to improve as a scorer. Most guys who get better without having a huge foundation/elite tools to work with from the start end up doing so by reducing usage and focusing on assisted buckets. Slashing off-ball, corner 3s, lots of catch-and-shoot, transition, really reducing the workload they need to do in order to get the shot while lowering overall degree of difficulty. That is NOT what Scottie's trying to do, and that's a huge part of why progress has been... fitful.

If, however, we pivot to the idea that he is more a 2nd/3rd option type of player, then we can look forward to increasing passing support, reduced volume, being able to cherry pick his spots and have more efficient options like transition and off-ball cuts and such making up a higher proportion of his overall game. So when his FT% normalizes and if he re-establishes even a mediocre to league-average 3, then we should be in very good shape with him in such a role.

[Scase]

MR is the most realistic option for him to actually achieve, I don't think anyone is confused on whether or not he will be a 1st option, he is quite obviously a 2nd/3rd option. So him being a 3 level scorer is not only not a realistic goal, but it's not even one we need to aim for.

That's about where I am sitting on him in year 4 with what we've seen to date. There are some skills which are fairly difficult to develop once you've already hit the NBA, and that's basically what he needs to improve as a scorer. Most guys who get better without having a huge foundation/elite tools to work with from the start end up doing so by reducing usage and focusing on assisted buckets. Slashing off-ball, corner 3s, lots of catch-and-shoot, transition, really reducing the workload they need to do in order to get the shot while lowering overall degree of difficulty. That is NOT what Scottie's trying to do, and that's a huge part of why progress has been... fitful.

If, however, we pivot to the idea that he is more a 2nd/3rd option type of player, then we can look forward to increasing passing support, reduced volume, being able to cherry pick his spots and have more efficient options like transition and off-ball cuts and such making up a higher proportion of his overall game. So when his FT% normalizes and if he re-establishes even a mediocre to league-average 3, then we should be in very good shape with him in such a role.

That's how I see it as well, I really like Scottie and I'm high on him overall, but I still think we need to be realistic with what we've got. He's by no means someone I think we should be looking to move on from, he has an exceptional skill set that is not easily found in the NBA, but scoring isn't one of those skills.

So we're best to lean into the things that are realistic to improve, and marginally attempt to improve the things like his 3, that are really more of a pipe dream. Scotties MR game is quite close to DD in his first 4 years which was about 45/42/37 vs SB 46/38/38 (career) for 3-10/10-16/16-3p ranges.

As much as I would love it to be, I am not going to put money on this years 10-16 split of 55% being real, that would be the second highest of KDs career and highest of DDs by like 4%. That's coming down. DD's last 4 years have him around 49/48/45, I don't think getting Scottie closer to those splits with a lot more practice is unrealistic, he's shown to have some proficiency there, and having him float around 50/45/42 would be a hugely reliable scoring threat from that range and it should open up his drive game as well.

All in all, he's definitely worth keeping around for many years to come, but they really need to focus on what his ultimate role is going to be. He needs to be a master of something, and it certainly aint gonna be 3p shooting, so it's best to lean into the MR game.

[tsherkin]

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That's how I see it as well, I really like Scottie and I'm high on him overall, but I still think we need to be realistic with what we've got. He's by no means someone I think we should be looking to move on from, he has an exceptional skill set that is not easily found in the NBA, but scoring isn't one of those skills.

I'm very happy to have him. His rebounding and D are nice. He's showing some improvement in a bunch of areas and he looks like a strong secondary playmaker. Actually, his D is more than nice, but you know what I mean. He contributes a lot, and we ask more than he's capable of giving at this time, but he keeps trying.

We're at the stage of his career where I agree, we need to lean into deploying him more towards his strengths.

As much as I would love it to be, I am not going to put money on this years 10-16 split of 55% being real, that would be the second highest of KDs career and highest of DDs by like 4%. That's coming down.

Yeah, I think that's probably a bit of a pipe dream outlier at this point, but if nothing else, it's a marker of improvement we can look to for now.

He's certainly worth keeping, but in general, when someone is worth it as a focal scorer, you see it sooner, even in the age of younger starts. Even someone like Shai, I mean no one really saw 30 ppg from when he was a Clipper, but he started his career as an 80% FT shooter with a viable 3 and a very clear and obviously-strong mid-range game. Tatum was a 13.9 ppg rookie, and while he isn't my favorite option because he's more a tier-3 kind of scorer, he was still an 82.6% FT shooter as a rook with a VERY strong 3, had a bit of a handle, had some post game and some mid-range play he's since gone away from. And honestly, as much as I complain about him, I only do so in context of him not being a tier-1 player, a superstar. He's a fantastic player overall and any team would be lucky to have him. I could go on, but the point is there: you either see elite skills and/or you see elite tools and you project forward.... or you sigh, and realize that you don't have an ATG monster in the making, and you wonder what the ceiling will be. Scottie doesn't have the speed, the jumper or the already-developed handle to become the guy we all know we need... but he could still be a hella-effective player for us. He IS pretty good for us, when we step away from the scoring discussion, after all. No sense pissing that away unless we get something very much worthwhile in return, which isn't likely.