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2024-25 Regular Season

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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#941 » by toooskies » Mon Jan 13, 2025 4:36 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
I don't really have any complaints about Kenny. That said, +/- is a good tool with large data sets, but using it as part of an in-game decision making process seems ill-advised. The variables that come out in the wash over a 100 minute sample size are pretty impactful over a 5 minute run. I forget the Pacer who banked in a 911 three with the shot clock expiring, but things like that plus a missed call or two can really skew the results.


Every box score stat can be polluted by things going on. Context is what's important when interpreting any stat and Kenny is watching the games with a trained eye.

Predictions about future outcomes can be made based on averages, but game time decisions need to be made in context of what's happening on the floor in the current game. So, if Kenny's instincts are telling him that Georges is killing us, but then he notices were actually +5 with Georges on the floor ... maybe he'll think a little harder about yanking him.

fwiw, I'd point out that even things like crazy shot making and bad calls are not completely disassociated from the personnel on the floor. Maybe someone was supposed to bump that offensive player before he pulled up and made the crazy shot, but we got lazy.

I'd argue one of the biggest disconnects even in the modern analytic era is due to all the people who DO NOT understand that other box score stats like PPG, APG, RPG, FG%, TS%, etc, are also flawed in every way that +/- is and then some EXCEPT they do not capture as much underlying data.

This is presumably how LaMelo Ball can get voted in to the All Star game in this day and age because 30 & 7! Yay.


LaMelo can get voted onto the all star game because he's represented by Klutch and they game the system via social media. They were encouraging people to vote for Ben Simmons via old Twitter the year he held out. I'm 100% convinced they have people posting on RealGM. I posted a critical comment about Ball's defense on the GB and got a response that was a little too personally vested to be from a random fan.

Most actual NBA front offices are too sophisticated to be influenced by PR campaigns anymore. It's why Lavine has been stranded on the Bulls. Even an all star bid means less and less. The game itself is unwatchable and the first time a player gets injured in one will probably result in that being the last allstar game. Just because LaMelo qualifies for a super max doesn't mean he's getting one offered to him.

Another issue Klutch runs into with this stuff is that they have a client in Cleveland who plays the same position as Ball and would like to make an all star game. They're not boosting him in the same way though.

Ball's winning the fan vote because his name comes up first by the default sort on the voting page because he's leading the East in guard scoring by a good margin.

The degree to which the voting can be gamed is an interesting topic but I don't know if it is significantly swayed by in-the-moment marketing. I feel as though the guys who have long-time fan followings like Dame and Trae see more of that effect. LaMelo has a big following too. (I'd believe the fan voting is much more likely to be hackable.)

OTOH if media or players don't vote for LaMelo, that may be enough to counteract the fan vote. Note that the year Wiggins was voted an all-star starter that he finished 5th in the player vote and 6th in the media vote, which was close enough to fend off a lack of consensus between media and players for the 3rd spot.

It's also a factor that they just take the ranks of players in the fan/player/media voting for weighting, rather than doing any kind of vote fractions, and that also means the number of players receiving votes matters and whether or not LaMelo gets a single media vote or not matters. Derrick Rose was 2nd in the fan vote and 4th in the player vote in 2019 in the west, but because he didn't get any media votes he lost out to Harden. https://www.basketball-reference.com/allstar/NBA_2019_voting.html

Last year Dame was 3rd in fan vote but started due to Trae, who was 2nd, coming in 6th in the media and player votes. https://www.basketball-reference.com/allstar/NBA_2024_voting-backcourt-eastern-conference.html
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#942 » by jbk1234 » Mon Jan 13, 2025 4:58 pm

cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#943 » by JonFromVA » Mon Jan 13, 2025 5:21 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
I don't really have any complaints about Kenny. That said, +/- is a good tool with large data sets, but using it as part of an in-game decision making process seems ill-advised. The variables that come out in the wash over a 100 minute sample size are pretty impactful over a 5 minute run. I forget the Pacer who banked in a 911 three with the shot clock expiring, but things like that plus a missed call or two can really skew the results.


Every box score stat can be polluted by things going on. Context is what's important when interpreting any stat and Kenny is watching the games with a trained eye.

Predictions about future outcomes can be made based on averages, but game time decisions need to be made in context of what's happening on the floor in the current game. So, if Kenny's instincts are telling him that Georges is killing us, but then he notices were actually +5 with Georges on the floor ... maybe he'll think a little harder about yanking him.

fwiw, I'd point out that even things like crazy shot making and bad calls are not completely disassociated from the personnel on the floor. Maybe someone was supposed to bump that offensive player before he pulled up and made the crazy shot, but we got lazy.

I'd argue one of the biggest disconnects even in the modern analytic era is due to all the people who DO NOT understand that other box score stats like PPG, APG, RPG, FG%, TS%, etc, are also flawed in every way that +/- is and then some EXCEPT they do not capture as much underlying data.

This is presumably how LaMelo Ball can get voted in to the All Star game in this day and age because 30 & 7! Yay.


LaMelo can get voted onto the all star game because he's represented by Klutch and they game the system via social media. They were encouraging people to vote for Ben Simmons via old Twitter the year he held out. I'm 100% convinced they have people posting on RealGM. I posted a critical comment about Ball's defense on the GB and got a response that was a little too personally vested to be from a random fan.

Most actual NBA front offices are too sophisticated to be influenced by PR campaigns anymore. It's why Lavine has been stranded on the Bulls. Even an all star bid means less and less. The game itself is unwatchable and the first time a player gets injured in one will probably result in that being the last allstar game. Just because LaMelo qualifies for a super max doesn't mean he's getting one offered to him.

Another issue Klutch runs into with this stuff is that they have a client in Cleveland who plays the same position as Ball and would like to make an all star game. They're not boosting him in the same way though.


Which seems like a hole in your theory frankly. It's not even like LaMelo has a contract extension coming up. Why wouldn't they be pumping up Garland too?

Nah, I think the majority of fans still cling to the same box score stats they have since the beginning of box score stats and as for GB posters, well, some regular fans are far better at shilling for their favorite player and team than any shill could ever hope to be.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#944 » by jbk1234 » Mon Jan 13, 2025 5:40 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Every box score stat can be polluted by things going on. Context is what's important when interpreting any stat and Kenny is watching the games with a trained eye.

Predictions about future outcomes can be made based on averages, but game time decisions need to be made in context of what's happening on the floor in the current game. So, if Kenny's instincts are telling him that Georges is killing us, but then he notices were actually +5 with Georges on the floor ... maybe he'll think a little harder about yanking him.

fwiw, I'd point out that even things like crazy shot making and bad calls are not completely disassociated from the personnel on the floor. Maybe someone was supposed to bump that offensive player before he pulled up and made the crazy shot, but we got lazy.

I'd argue one of the biggest disconnects even in the modern analytic era is due to all the people who DO NOT understand that other box score stats like PPG, APG, RPG, FG%, TS%, etc, are also flawed in every way that +/- is and then some EXCEPT they do not capture as much underlying data.

This is presumably how LaMelo Ball can get voted in to the All Star game in this day and age because 30 & 7! Yay.


LaMelo can get voted onto the all star game because he's represented by Klutch and they game the system via social media. They were encouraging people to vote for Ben Simmons via old Twitter the year he held out. I'm 100% convinced they have people posting on RealGM. I posted a critical comment about Ball's defense on the GB and got a response that was a little too personally vested to be from a random fan.

Most actual NBA front offices are too sophisticated to be influenced by PR campaigns anymore. It's why Lavine has been stranded on the Bulls. Even an all star bid means less and less. The game itself is unwatchable and the first time a player gets injured in one will probably result in that being the last allstar game. Just because LaMelo qualifies for a super max doesn't mean he's getting one offered to him.

Another issue Klutch runs into with this stuff is that they have a client in Cleveland who plays the same position as Ball and would like to make an all star game. They're not boosting him in the same way though.


Which seems like a hole in your theory frankly. It's not even like LaMelo has a contract extension coming up. Why wouldn't they be pumping up Garland too?

Nah, I think the majority of fans still cling to the same box score stats they have since the beginning of box score stats and as for GB posters, well, some regular fans are far better at shilling for their favorite player and team than any shill could ever hope to be.


I posted a link earlier in the thread, but LaMelo's brother, not Lonzo, came out with a rap song (Tweaker) that's gone viral on YouTube, both LaMelo and Lonzo are boosting it, and LiAngelo is boosting LaMelo for the all star game. Welcome to the brave new world.

As far as Klutch, they're looking to get all these guys super max eligible and they don't believe that can happen with Garland playing in Cleveland next to Mitchell. Now they can go to him and say: *See, you placed X in all star voting. You'll always be overshadowed there.*
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#945 » by JonFromVA » Mon Jan 13, 2025 6:02 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
LaMelo can get voted onto the all star game because he's represented by Klutch and they game the system via social media. They were encouraging people to vote for Ben Simmons via old Twitter the year he held out. I'm 100% convinced they have people posting on RealGM. I posted a critical comment about Ball's defense on the GB and got a response that was a little too personally vested to be from a random fan.

Most actual NBA front offices are too sophisticated to be influenced by PR campaigns anymore. It's why Lavine has been stranded on the Bulls. Even an all star bid means less and less. The game itself is unwatchable and the first time a player gets injured in one will probably result in that being the last allstar game. Just because LaMelo qualifies for a super max doesn't mean he's getting one offered to him.

Another issue Klutch runs into with this stuff is that they have a client in Cleveland who plays the same position as Ball and would like to make an all star game. They're not boosting him in the same way though.


Which seems like a hole in your theory frankly. It's not even like LaMelo has a contract extension coming up. Why wouldn't they be pumping up Garland too?

Nah, I think the majority of fans still cling to the same box score stats they have since the beginning of box score stats and as for GB posters, well, some regular fans are far better at shilling for their favorite player and team than any shill could ever hope to be.


I posted a link earlier in the thread, but LaMelo's brother, not Lonzo, came out with a rap song (Tweaker) that's gone viral on YouTube, both LaMelo and Lonzo are boosting it, and LiAngelo is boosting LaMelo for the all star game. Welcome to the brave new world.

As far as Klutch, they're looking to get all these guys super max eligible and they don't believe that can happen with Garland playing in Cleveland next to Mitchell. Now they can go to him and say: *See, you placed X in all star voting. You'll always be overshadowed there.*


Way too devious I think even with the rumors that supposedly came from Klutch this Summer.

Fortunately the fan vote only counts for 50% and 5 spots. Garland still has a great shot to get in.

One thing Klutch should be careful about is not playing one of their clients up at the expense of another client, because in the long-run they make the most money by making all their clients happy and keeping that pipeline of future clients flowing in.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#946 » by JujitsuFlip » Wed Jan 15, 2025 2:01 pm

I know it is way too soon but i didn't realize the Cavs had 2 second round picks in this year's draft.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#947 » by JonFromVA » Wed Jan 15, 2025 3:32 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:I know it is way too soon but i didn't realize the Cavs had 2 second round picks in this year's draft.


We have our own and the Buck's. The Bucks have bounced back but if the season ended now, the pick would be in the middle of the second round. But not as enticing in a trade as having a pair of second rounders from bad teams.

Fine for recharging our 2-way contracts if we need to or adding a draft & stash.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#948 » by JujitsuFlip » Wed Jan 15, 2025 3:47 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:I know it is way too soon but i didn't realize the Cavs had 2 second round picks in this year's draft.


We have our own and the Buck's. The Bucks have bounced back but if the season ended now, the pick would be in the middle of the second round. But not as enticing in a trade as having a pair of second rounders from bad teams.

Fine for recharging our 2-way contracts if we need to or adding a draft & stash.
If the Cavs finish the season where they are or in similar standing, I'd use that last pick to stash for sure.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#949 » by toooskies » Wed Jan 15, 2025 7:08 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:I know it is way too soon but i didn't realize the Cavs had 2 second round picks in this year's draft.


We have our own and the Buck's. The Bucks have bounced back but if the season ended now, the pick would be in the middle of the second round. But not as enticing in a trade as having a pair of second rounders from bad teams.

Fine for recharging our 2-way contracts if we need to or adding a draft & stash.
If the Cavs finish the season where they are or in similar standing, I'd use that last pick to stash for sure.

From what I've gathered so far, while there is talent at the top of this draft, it is not very deep.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#950 » by JujitsuFlip » Wed Jan 15, 2025 7:50 pm

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
We have our own and the Buck's. The Bucks have bounced back but if the season ended now, the pick would be in the middle of the second round. But not as enticing in a trade as having a pair of second rounders from bad teams.

Fine for recharging our 2-way contracts if we need to or adding a draft & stash.
If the Cavs finish the season where they are or in similar standing, I'd use that last pick to stash for sure.

From what I've gathered so far, while there is talent at the top of this draft, it is not very deep.
Yeah, the pick may never end up coming over, we'll see. Not very many of our 2nd rounders have panned out.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#951 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:24 pm

https://clutchpoints.com/cavs-news-darius-garland-pivotal-moment-changed-donovan-mitchell-chemistry

Pretty cool all it took was a conversation and look where the team is now!
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#952 » by JonFromVA » Sat Jan 25, 2025 3:55 pm

Way too early to judge especially with so many of our defensive players unavailable, but just thought I'd point out that when Flip Saunders replaced Larry Brown as the coach of the Pistons, their offense improved greatly and their win total went up and their defense didn't suffer too much but they seemed to lose the will or the ability to get stops and shutdown opponents down when they really needed to.

It's hard to keep that defensive focus when wins come easily with offense.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#953 » by jbk1234 » Sat Jan 25, 2025 5:40 pm

JonFromVA wrote:Way too early to judge especially with so many of our defensive players unavailable, but just thought I'd point out that when Flip Saunders replaced Larry Brown as the coach of the Pistons, their offense improved greatly and their win total went up and their defense didn't suffer too much but they seemed to lose the will or the ability to get stops and shutdown opponents down when they really needed to.

It's hard to keep that defensive focus when wins come easily with offense.


Part of the problem is that once your opponents players get cooking, it's a lot harder to cool them off. Part of the problem is that if they're not having to work hard to score the first 40 minutes, and you're caught running around in a series of endless defensive rotations, the other team has a lot more energy and confidence to close out games.

Balancing offense and defense in your rotations is not a new or novel concept. Kenny's just not doing it right now.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#954 » by jbk1234 » Sat Jan 25, 2025 9:48 pm

cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#955 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Jan 26, 2025 10:06 am

jbk1234 wrote:https://www.fearthesword.com/2025/1/23/24350653/nba-confirms-crucial-missed-call-between-cavs-and-rockets
https://athlonsports.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/nba-announces-major-error-in-cavaliers-76ers-game

2 games in a row
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#956 » by jbk1234 » Sun Jan 26, 2025 2:07 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:https://www.fearthesword.com/2025/1/23/24350653/nba-confirms-crucial-missed-call-between-cavs-and-rockets
https://athlonsports.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/nba-announces-major-error-in-cavaliers-76ers-game

2 games in a row


Allen gets no respect from the officials and none of the of choices the Cavs have as far as what to do about it are great. I didn't mind bringing TT in off the bench last night against Sengun in order to shove back hard (and TT even went over to Brothers after his first foul and had a conversation), but we shouldn't have to do that.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#957 » by JonFromVA » Sun Jan 26, 2025 4:26 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:https://www.fearthesword.com/2025/1/23/24350653/nba-confirms-crucial-missed-call-between-cavs-and-rockets
https://athlonsports.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/nba-announces-major-error-in-cavaliers-76ers-game

2 games in a row


Allen gets no respect from the officials and none of the of choices the Cavs have as far as what to do about it are great. I didn't mind bringing TT in off the bench last night against Sengun in order to shove back hard (and TT even went over to Brothers after his first foul and had a conversation), but we shouldn't have to do that.


I don't know why we can't sharpen our elbows too, but I guess we play "ethical basketball".
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#958 » by jbk1234 » Sun Jan 26, 2025 4:51 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:https://athlonsports.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/nba-announces-major-error-in-cavaliers-76ers-game

2 games in a row


Allen gets no respect from the officials and none of the of choices the Cavs have as far as what to do about it are great. I didn't mind bringing TT in off the bench last night against Sengun in order to shove back hard (and TT even went over to Brothers after his first foul and had a conversation), but we shouldn't have to do that.


I don't know why we can't sharpen our elbows too, but I guess we play "ethical basketball".


If this was just about the game getting a little too physical, it would be easier, but these are blatant, obvious fouls simply not getting called. PG actually cupped Allen's butt cheek and lifted him off the floor on that *hook.* Sengun is constantly shoving Allen, et. al., with both arms extended. It's qualitatively different than Mitchell Robinson getting a little extra physical while using his legs and mass as leverage on a box out.

Maybe we have to escalate in order to deescalate every time until we get a reputation for doing that.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#959 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Jan 26, 2025 6:56 pm

https://www.cleveland.com/sports/2025/01/why-evan-mobley-sounded-cavs-alarm-after-rockets-loss-and-how-wake-up-call-might-help-jimmy-watkins.html?outputType=amp

Wow, Cavs defense fell off a cliff.

We are the 29th ranked D for the month of January.

I do think the schedule and injuries are a part of it but glad the team isn't using it as an excuse.

It would be nice to have someone like jb be our "defensive coordinator". Kenny is damn good at offense but the other side of the ball has suffered, after early success.
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Re: 2024-25 Regular Season 

Post#960 » by jbk1234 » Sun Jan 26, 2025 8:45 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:https://www.cleveland.com/sports/2025/01/why-evan-mobley-sounded-cavs-alarm-after-rockets-loss-and-how-wake-up-call-might-help-jimmy-watkins.html?outputType=amp

Wow, Cavs defense fell off a cliff.

We are the 29th ranked D for the month of January.

I do think the schedule and injuries are a part of it but glad the team isn't using it as an excuse.

It would be nice to have someone like jb be our "defensive coordinator". Kenny is damn good at offense but the other side of the ball has suffered, after early success.


This isn't schematic. It's the personnel that's on the floor. Niang, plus one of Merrill/Jerome, plus one of Garland/Mitchell, constitutes three players who range from awful to barely passable on defense. We often have four of them on the floor at the same time. We papered over some liabilities with the zone, but that's been scouted and opponents have been pummeling the weak spots.

I think you can get away with playing Niang in units that have two of Strus, Okoro, or Lavine (maybe Tyson), but that's it really, and it's well past time to ask whether that's justifies us continuing to have him on this roster.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.

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