Celts Bounce Back, Defeat Massive Human And His Gaggle Of Terrifying Water Birds! Victory Cigar vs NOP 1/12

[Fierce1]

Cs leading by 3 with 34 secs remaining and JB airballs a 3.

Why shoot a 3 at that point in time?

Bad shots like that is about decision making.

If the Cs want to repeat, they need to minimize the going for the home run shots.

[bisme37]

When it's a close game like that I'm hustling to make multiple postgame threads all through the 4th quarter since I don't know who's going to win and I have to post this damn thing as soon as the game ends. It's usually pretty annoying since I'm trying to watch the game but I'm making threads instead, but in this case I think I kinda lucked out and didn't fully absorb all those weird ass mistakes late in the game haha.

[shackles10]

This thread is truly a coalition of the miserable. The three wasn't falling for us and it was for them, we missed bunnies all over and managed to win by dominating the glass. You have to win ugly sometimes. It's still a win, and when water finds level and the shots start falling the wins will be prettier but they won't count for more in the standings.

Hot shooting nights happen and so do cold ones. The ongoing concern related to defense is the quality of the looks the other teams are often getting. We can't be surprised they're shooting 50% when they're wide open.

[Celticfan_N_FL]

Cs leading by 3 with 34 secs remaining and JB airballs a 3.

Why shoot a 3 at that point in time?

Bad shots like that is about decision making.

If the Cs want to repeat, they need to minimize the going for the home run shots.

Do you mean when there was like 3 seconds on the shot clock? Yeah...makes no sense. I mean the issue is Jaylen in that moment and not Tatum beating the ball into the ground for 18 seconds and then firing a crosscourt pass for an end of the shot clock heave.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

This thread is truly a coalition of the miserable. The three wasn't falling for us and it was for them, we missed bunnies all over and managed to win by dominating the glass. You have to win ugly sometimes. It's still a win, and when water finds level and the shots start falling the wins will be prettier but they won't count for more in the standings.

Hot shooting nights happen and so do cold ones. The ongoing concern related to defense is the quality of the looks the other teams are often getting. We can't be surprised they're shooting 50% when they're wide open.

Over their last 15 games the Celtics are giving up 20.7 wide open threes and 12.5 open threes. The OKC Thunder the best perimeter defense in the NBA is giving up 17.9 and 15.7 respectively. So the Celtics are giving a similar number of open and wide open threes combined than the Thunder (33.2 for Boston, 33.6 for OKC). Over that time span, the Celtics have the lowest opponent free throw rate (ie. they give up the fewest free throws) in the entire league and only give up one more shot in the restricted area than OKC (21.6 for OKC vs 22.9 for Boston). I'm not sure there is anything in their shot profile to suggest they are giving up significantly easier shots than the Thunder let alone the average NBA team.

But over that stretch OKC's opponents are making 31.6% of their wide open threes (best in the league) and the Celtics opponents are making 44.5% (worst in the league). So one of those defense looks unbeatable and the other looks like it couldn't stop a nosebleed. Despite getting killed by shooting variance defensively, the Celtics are second in defensive rating over that span. It doesn't mean everything is perfect and there haven't been clunkers in the past month but the way some people are talking you would think Boston is like 22nd on defense.

[shackles10]

This thread is truly a coalition of the miserable. The three wasn't falling for us and it was for them, we missed bunnies all over and managed to win by dominating the glass. You have to win ugly sometimes. It's still a win, and when water finds level and the shots start falling the wins will be prettier but they won't count for more in the standings.

Hot shooting nights happen and so do cold ones. The ongoing concern related to defense is the quality of the looks the other teams are often getting. We can't be surprised they're shooting 50% when they're wide open.

Over their last 15 games the Celtics are giving up 20.7 wide open threes and 12.5 open threes. The OKC Thunder the best perimeter defense in the NBA is giving up 17.9 and 15.7 respectively. So the Celtics are giving a similar number of open and wide open threes combined than the Thunder (33.2 for Boston, 33.6 for OKC). Over that time span, the Celtics have the lowest opponent free throw rate (ie. they give up the fewest free throws) in the entire league and only give up one more shot in the restricted area than OKC (21.6 for OKC vs 22.9 for Boston). I'm not sure there is anything in their shot profile to suggest they are giving up significantly easier shots than the Thunder let alone the average NBA team.

But over that stretch OKC's opponents are making 31.6% of their wide open threes (best in the league) and the Celtics opponents are making 44.5% (worst in the league). So one of those defense looks unbeatable and the other looks like it couldn't stop a nosebleed. Despite getting killed by shooting variance defensively, the Celtics are second in defensive rating over that span. It doesn't mean everything is perfect and there haven't been clunkers in the past month but the way some people are talking you would think Boston is like 22nd on defense.

All fair points. I guess the next thing to look at is who is taking the wide open shots or is it truly a case of shooting norms and bad luck that will even out. When a red hot Murphy or Celtic killer Caleb Martin are getting the looks vs Ben Simmons-ish guys the stats aren't all the same. From my ever failing memory I feel like I'm yelling at the tv "why did you leave him open of all guys" a lot more than I did last season.

[Bad-Thoma]

This thread is truly a coalition of the miserable. The three wasn't falling for us and it was for them, we missed bunnies all over and managed to win by dominating the glass. You have to win ugly sometimes. It's still a win, and when water finds level and the shots start falling the wins will be prettier but they won't count for more in the standings.

Hot shooting nights happen and so do cold ones. The ongoing concern related to defense is the quality of the looks the other teams are often getting. We can't be surprised they're shooting 50% when they're wide open.

I won't argue that our defense isn't what it could be but it seems like there is a little experimenting going on mixing in some zone, etc. I'll be more concerned if it doesn't slowly improve after the all-star break with (fingers crossed) more consistent health and KP getting back up to speed.

[Fierce1]

Cs leading by 3 with 34 secs remaining and JB airballs a 3.

Why shoot a 3 at that point in time?

Bad shots like that is about decision making.

If the Cs want to repeat, they need to minimize the going for the home run shots.

Do you mean when there was like 3 seconds on the shot clock? Yeah...makes no sense. I mean the issue is Jaylen in that moment and not Tatum beating the ball into the ground for 18 seconds and then firing a crosscourt pass for an end of the shot clock heave.

It was more like 4 secs.

Zion was running at him.

Fake the 3 then one dribble for a mid-range jumper.

It was also Jrue handling the ball then he passed to JT who then gave it to JB.

JB rushed the shot.

Zion was at his mercy.

[Fencer reregistered]

This thread is truly a coalition of the miserable. The three wasn't falling for us and it was for them, we missed bunnies all over and managed to win by dominating the glass. You have to win ugly sometimes. It's still a win, and when water finds level and the shots start falling the wins will be prettier but they won't count for more in the standings.

Hot shooting nights happen and so do cold ones. The ongoing concern related to defense is the quality of the looks the other teams are often getting. We can't be surprised they're shooting 50% when they're wide open.

Over their last 15 games the Celtics are giving up 20.7 wide open threes and 12.5 open threes. The OKC Thunder the best perimeter defense in the NBA is giving up 17.9 and 15.7 respectively. So the Celtics are giving a similar number of open and wide open threes combined than the Thunder (33.2 for Boston, 33.6 for OKC). Over that time span, the Celtics have the lowest opponent free throw rate (ie. they give up the fewest free throws) in the entire league and only give up one more shot in the restricted area than OKC (21.6 for OKC vs 22.9 for Boston). I'm not sure there is anything in their shot profile to suggest they are giving up significantly easier shots than the Thunder let alone the average NBA team.

But over that stretch OKC's opponents are making 31.6% of their wide open threes (best in the league) and the Celtics opponents are making 44.5% (worst in the league). So one of those defense looks unbeatable and the other looks like it couldn't stop a nosebleed. Despite getting killed by shooting variance defensively, the Celtics are second in defensive rating over that span. It doesn't mean everything is perfect and there haven't been clunkers in the past month but the way some people are talking you would think Boston is like 22nd on defense.

Is it really just shooting variance, or does OKC induce opponents to rush more shots with scarier closeouts?

Similarly wrt to perimeter passing. When the Cs' offense is at its best, guys routinely reject wide-open shots, making an extra pass to somebody who has his feet better set, or is in the corner, or whatever.

[Bad-Thoma]

Hot shooting nights happen and so do cold ones. The ongoing concern related to defense is the quality of the looks the other teams are often getting. We can't be surprised they're shooting 50% when they're wide open.

Over their last 15 games the Celtics are giving up 20.7 wide open threes and 12.5 open threes. The OKC Thunder the best perimeter defense in the NBA is giving up 17.9 and 15.7 respectively. So the Celtics are giving a similar number of open and wide open threes combined than the Thunder (33.2 for Boston, 33.6 for OKC). Over that time span, the Celtics have the lowest opponent free throw rate (ie. they give up the fewest free throws) in the entire league and only give up one more shot in the restricted area than OKC (21.6 for OKC vs 22.9 for Boston). I'm not sure there is anything in their shot profile to suggest they are giving up significantly easier shots than the Thunder let alone the average NBA team.

But over that stretch OKC's opponents are making 31.6% of their wide open threes (best in the league) and the Celtics opponents are making 44.5% (worst in the league). So one of those defense looks unbeatable and the other looks like it couldn't stop a nosebleed. Despite getting killed by shooting variance defensively, the Celtics are second in defensive rating over that span. It doesn't mean everything is perfect and there haven't been clunkers in the past month but the way some people are talking you would think Boston is like 22nd on defense.

Is it really just shooting variance, or does OKC induce opponents to rush more shots with scarier closeouts?

Similarly wrt to perimeter passing. When the Cs' offense is at its best, guys routinely reject wide-open shots, making an extra pass to somebody who has his feet better set, or is in the corner, or whatever.

There's probably an element of that but they are still wide open threes and it's not as if OKC is making a "scary" closeout on all of them and the C's are just standing around with their thumbs up their asses on all of theirs. The key is the similar overall amount of wide open threes allowed which is more indicative of the overall effort than the percentage of the wide open shots that go in. I'm not outright dismissing your thought but I'd put most of it to shooting variance.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

Hot shooting nights happen and so do cold ones. The ongoing concern related to defense is the quality of the looks the other teams are often getting. We can't be surprised they're shooting 50% when they're wide open.

Over their last 15 games the Celtics are giving up 20.7 wide open threes and 12.5 open threes. The OKC Thunder the best perimeter defense in the NBA is giving up 17.9 and 15.7 respectively. So the Celtics are giving a similar number of open and wide open threes combined than the Thunder (33.2 for Boston, 33.6 for OKC). Over that time span, the Celtics have the lowest opponent free throw rate (ie. they give up the fewest free throws) in the entire league and only give up one more shot in the restricted area than OKC (21.6 for OKC vs 22.9 for Boston). I'm not sure there is anything in their shot profile to suggest they are giving up significantly easier shots than the Thunder let alone the average NBA team.

But over that stretch OKC's opponents are making 31.6% of their wide open threes (best in the league) and the Celtics opponents are making 44.5% (worst in the league). So one of those defense looks unbeatable and the other looks like it couldn't stop a nosebleed. Despite getting killed by shooting variance defensively, the Celtics are second in defensive rating over that span. It doesn't mean everything is perfect and there haven't been clunkers in the past month but the way some people are talking you would think Boston is like 22nd on defense.

Is it really just shooting variance, or does OKC induce opponents to rush more shots with scarier closeouts?

Similarly wrt to perimeter passing. When the Cs' offense is at its best, guys routinely reject wide-open shots, making an extra pass to somebody who has his feet better set, or is in the corner, or whatever.

By definition when you are wide open the closeout is too far away to have a meaningful impact. The Mavs shot 42.5% on wide open threes in their series against OKC and 31.1% versus the Celtics in the finals. Just as an example of the scary OKC closeouts also being subject to shooting variance.

All fair points. I guess the next thing to look at is who is taking the wide open shots or is it truly a case of shooting norms and bad luck that will even out. When a red hot Murphy or Celtic killer Caleb Martin are getting the looks vs Ben Simmons-ish guys the stats aren't all the same. From my ever failing memory I feel like I'm yelling at the tv "why did you leave him open of all guys" a lot more than I did last season.

Sure the Celtics could be more selective of who they leave open but there have been a lot of random hot nights by like Dejounte Murray or Russell Westbrook too. Steph Curry is usually around 45-47% on wide open threes. When collectively the Celtics opponents shoot virtually the same percentage (44.5%), I feel very comfortable saying that's not sustainable.