Retro Player of the Year 2006-07 UPDATE — Tim Duncan

[lessthanjake]

The Mavs lost in large part because they scored poorly. If they score well, they likely win. Wade was not the reason they scored poorly. Seems relevant.

It is an odd approach to dismiss Lebron this year, because they 'won with D', then credit Wade last year when they also won with D (or just bad shooting from Dallas). I'm sure Lebron had alot more to do with Cleveland's D this year than Wade helped the Heat on D.

The Heat had a +4.2 rORTG in the first round, +10.3 rORTG in the second round, and +2.3 rORTG in the conference finals. It was only really in the Finals that their offensive rating was low.

And while they did win with defense in the Finals while posting a low offensive rating, they also won with Wade carrying their offense with a fantastic offensive performance while the rest of his team was awful offensively. LeBron has carried offenses in the playoffs with great individual performances, but in the 2007 playoffs he didn’t have performances like Wade’s 2006 Finals. There’s not a series that they won with great defense while LeBron carried the offense with an individually fantastic offensive series. Rather, there are series where they won with great defense while LeBron played fairly well offensively under the circumstances but not fantastically (aside from game 5 against the Pistons of course!). So I just don’t really see the analogy. There’s a big difference between (1) a player who has a fantastic individual offensive series to carry his struggling team offensively while the team does great defensively; and (2) a player who has a merely solid individual offensive series while his team struggled offensively and while the team does great defensively. Obviously the former is more individually impressive.

I will also note that we can perhaps see the results of this difference in the overall playoff data. The 2007 Cavaliers had a below-par -2.8 rORTG in the playoffs, but an astounding -8.2 rDRTG in the playoffs. The 2006 Heat had a good +2.7 rORTG in the playoffs, and a great -5.9 rDRTG. Both teams had a better defense than offense—at least in terms of relative rating—but the Cavaliers’ defense was better than the Heat’s defense, while the opposite was the case regarding the Heat’s offense (which is not a surprise given that Wade had a superior playoffs offensively than LeBron).

Finally, I’d note that we can also see the results of this if we look at something like EPM. As I’ve noted to you before, Wade’s playoff EPM in 2006 was amongst the highest on record at +7.3 and was easily the highest of any player in those playoffs. LeBron’s EPM in the 2007 playoffs was +4.5, which is good but not spectacular and was 5th in those playoffs. Again, if there’s a guy with a +7.3 EPM who succeeds on a team that does very well defensively, it is natural to find that more impressive than a guy with a +4.5 EPM who succeeds on a team that does even better defensively.

[jjgp111292]

This was probably Bron's weakest season between 05-19, kind of a bizarre year - Sideshow Bob attributed it to him bulking up to his current size in the offseason affecting the balance of his jumper, and between that and his vastly increased effort on defense it probably threw off his motor "distribution" for lack of a better term. Even his playmaking was worse...but then that went up several notches in the playoffs. Again, outside of bursts against Detroit this was probably his worst playoffs as a scorer but his playmaking was a MASSIVE lift and outweighed the underwhelming scoring. Still, it's a top 5 effort this season all things considered - it's only underwhelming by Bron standards

I also feel like this was Nash's best case as an MVP, even better than the years where he actually won it.

[homecourtloss]

Interesting comment two threads removed from caring deeply about the offensive strength of Nash’s supporting cast.

Of course

[OhayoKD]

Voting Post
1. Kobe Bryant
2. Tim Duncan
3. Lebron James

Duncan falls off, Kobe is elite, and Lebron struggles a bit in the RS and playoffs.

4. Steve Nash

Leads the 2nd best playoff team. top 4 in the RS.

5. Dirk Nowitzki

MVP but has a terrible result and series in the first round.

[Djoker]

So why did you vote 1988 Jordan as OPoY above 1988 Magic when he led a mere +1.0 regular season offence and a bad -2.6 postseason offence?

Because Jordan performed well individually in the PS whereas Lebron struggled a lot. Jordan also had a far superior RS individually. Like a night and day difference in their respective performances.

[AEnigma]

Jordan performed well in one series.

[One_and_Done]

Voting Post
1. Kobe Bryant
2. Tim Duncan
3. Lebron James

Duncan falls off, Kobe is elite, and Lebron struggles a bit in the RS and playoffs.

4. Steve Nash

Leads the 2nd best playoff team. top 4 in the RS.

5. Dirk Nowitzki

MVP but has a terrible result and series in the first round.

I don't understand the Kobe vote at all. The Lakers had a better support cast this year than 06, but won fewer games. Kobe couldn't get anywhere without Odom (12-16 in games without him), yet the Lakers were actually 3-2 in games he missed. That's a small sample, but it certainly doesn't suggest they were a trash team without Kobe. 2 of those wins were against the Suns and Warriors, both good teams, and one of their losses was a game Odom also missed. This continues a trend, as the Lakers from 05-07 were actually a respectable 9-14 without Kobe, 9-11 in games Odom played that Kobe missed.

Kobe dropped 6pp100 from 06, and his Ortg was only 1 point higher. I realise 115 was a career high Ortg for Kobe, but it's still way behind Dirk (123) and Nash (124). Kobe wasn't close to being the best offensive player this year, and then in the playoffs his numbers got even worse.

Meanwhile Duncan and his 94 Drtg is best in the NBA, and he was putting up 33-17-5 per 100 in the playoffs with the same Ortg Kobe had that playoffs. I struggle to see what possible argument Kobe could have over some of these guys, but especially Duncan. He gets 5pp100 more in the PS, but Duncan is the best defensive player in the league while also posting good scoring numbers while leading his team to a title.

What part of these numbers suggests Kobe was better:

Duncan RS: 31.4pp100/16.6rp100/5.4ap100, 579 TS%, 111 Ortg/94 Drtg
Kobe RS: 39.7pp100/7.2rp100/6.7ap100, 580 TS%, 115 Ortg/109 Drtg

Duncan PS: 32.6pp100/16.8rp100/4.8ap100, 556 TS%, 111 Ortg/98 Drtg
Kobe PS: 38.6pp100/6.1rp100/5.2ap100, 561 TS%, 111 Ortg/116 Drtg

It doesn't look terribly close once you recognise that Kobe is a mediocre to bad defensive player at this point in his career, while Duncan is the best defender in the NBA. Duncan's primary benefit comes from his D, and yet he's not far behind Kobe on O this year, especially given his much lower usage. The Spurs won 58 games and the title with an 8.35 SRS. The Lakers won a mere 42 with a 0.24 SRS.

[70sFan]

Duncan falls off

How? It's one of the best seasons of his career

[OldSchoolNoBull]

My thoughts:

1. Tim Duncan

I gave some consideration to the order of #1 and #2 here, but ultimately, Duncan was the #1 option on the champs and swept #2 in the Finals, while putting up strong numbers in both regular season and playoffs. And I still think he should've won Finals MVP over Parker, even with the poor shooting. He pulled 11.5rpg, including 4 offensive boards per, which equals more scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. And defense matters. Ilgauskus was generally regarded as the Cavs' second best player, and in the Finals he was held to his second fewest FG attempts of of the playoffs and on by far his lowest efficiency of the playoffs:

Finals: 39.1% TS on 9.3 attempts
ECF: 54.7% TS on 10.3 attempts
Second: 57.2% TS on 8 attempts
First: 65.1% TS on 12.5 attempts

Gotta think Duncan had something to do with that, right? And one would also think Duncan manning the paint would at least be a factor in LeBron's poor shooting percentage in the Finals(though not the only factor, to be sure).

2. LeBron James

I can't believe I'm going to say this, as I am anything but a LeBron homer, but I feel like some of you are underselling what he did here. The conference was weak, and the Finals run is probably overhyped to some degree, but that roster is probably a lottery team without LeBron, and they made the Finals, with LeBron recording a +24 on/off in the playoffs, despite his poor shooting.

3. Steve Nash

Put up great numbers in both regular season and playoffs while leading the #1 offense in the league. The brawl and the suspensions in the Spurs series weren't his fault and I know a lot of people think the Suns would've beaten the Spurs and made the Finals without that. I still think 2006 was his most impressive year in Phoenix, but 2007 was great as well.

4. Kobe Bryant

Carried that weak Lakers roster to the playoffs again, leading the league in scoring on good efficiency, and maintained his performance very well in the playoffs:

RS: 31.6ppg/5.7rpg/5.4apg(3.3 turnovers)/1.4spg, 58% TS, .199 WS/48, 5.9 BPM, +6.0 on/off
PO: 32.8ppg/5.2rpg/4.4apg(4.4 turnovers)/1.0spg, 56.1% TS, .121 WS/48, 6.1 BPM, +8.2 on/off

There were two other Top 5 contenders - Dirk and Wade - who also lost in the first round, but Kobe's playoff numbers are better by some distance.

5. Baron Davis

Hear me out. I have never been particularly high on Baron - when a few participants suggested he should make the tail end of the recent Top 100 project, I didn't really think his case was strong given all the other players who hadn't gotten in - but if there's any season he has a Top 5 case for, its this one, imo.

In a vacuum, was Baron a better basketball player in 2007 than Dirk, Wade, or Garnett? I don't think anyone would answer yes to that. But team success is a part of this, right? I mean it has to be since only one person in this thread so far has had Garnett in their Top 5. Well, Dirk and Wade both had shocking first round defeats, and both of them fell considerably in the playoffs:

Wade
RS: 27.4ppg/7.5apg/4.7rpg/2.1spg/1.2bpg, 58.3% TS, .219 WS/48, 8.2 BPM, +6.4 on/off
PO: 23.5ppg/6.3apg/4.8rpg/1.3spg/0.5bpg, 47.9% TS, -0.060 WS/48, -0.6 BPM, -7.7 on/off

Dirk
RS: 24.6ppg/8.9rpg/3.4apg, 60.5% TS, .278 WS/48, 8.3 BPM, +12.5 on/off
PO: 19.7ppg/11.3rpg/2.3apg/1.8spg/1.3bpg, 50.9% TS, .128 WS/48, 3.1 BPM, +4.6 on/off

With the two of them having these chinks in their armor, and Garnett having missed the playoffs altogether, there's an opening to make a case for Baron here on the basis of impact metrics, impact signals, playoff rising, and defeating the Mavs. His regular season numbers:

RS: 20.1ppg/8.1apg(3.1 turnovers)/4.4rpg/2.1spg, 53% TS, .139 WS/48, 3.6 BPM, +11.9 on/off

So the big thing here is the +11.9 on/off. And to compliment that, let's look at his W/L WOWY for the season:

With Baron(63 games): 36-27(.571, 47 win pace)
Without Baron(19 games): 6-13(.316, 26 win pace)

His playoff numbers:

PO: 25.3ppg/6.5apg(2.9 turnovers)/4.5rpg/2.9spg, 62.2% TS, .247 WS/48, 8.6 BPM, +19.4 on/off

His numbers go up nearly across the board in the playoffs, with a +19.4 on/off, and the highest BPM of anyone in the post-season. And he puts up these numbers while spearheading one of the most shocking playoff upsets ever.

And at 5.41, he was the #7 RAPM in the league in JE's RS+PO set.

It's a better playoff result and a better playoff performance than Dirk or Wade, his RS on/off is greater than Wade's and less than a point off Dirk's, and there's a notable impact signal in the RS. I don't normally go to bat for Baron, and I'm not sure how strongly I feel about this, but the more I looked at things, the more I felt like making a case. I could be talked into moving Dirk over him though. It is highly unusual for the MVP to not make the Top 5.

6. Dirk Nowitzki

He was the MVP and were it not for a huge playoff failure, he would certainly rank multiple spots higher than this.

7. Kevin Garnett

Garnett's last year of futile individual numbers in Minnesota. It'll be interesting to see how high he ranks next season in his championship year.

8A. Manu Ginobili
8B. Dwyane Wade

I couldn't decide between these two. Manu had a much better playoffs in the tougher conference, but Wade had a bigger role.

10. Tracy McGrady

There's probably a few guys I could make a case for here, but Yao missed 34 games and McGrady still led a Rockets team where his next best players were Shane Battier, Rafer Alston, Luther Head, and past-his-prime Juwan Howard to 52 wins and the playoffs. It was rough seeing him at the presser after the Game 7 loss to the Jazz. He was so emotional he had to walk out.

[Djoker]

Jordan performed well in one series.

To be more accurate, Jordan played at a GOAT level in one series then played solidly in another series. There is no equivalency between these two seasons and it's kind of weird of you to bring this up.

RS

1988 Jordan: 35.0/5.5/5.9 on +6.5 rTS with 3.1 topg
2007 Lebron: 27.3/6.7/6.0 on +1.1 rTS with 3.2 topg

PS

1988 Jordan: 36.3/7.1/4.7 on +7.0 rTS with 3.9 topg
2007 Lebron: 25.1/8.1/8.0 on -1.7 rTS with 3.3 topg

[OhayoKD]

Jordan performed well in one series.

To be more accurate, Jordan played at a GOAT level in one series then played solidly in another series.

Jordan has never played at a GOAT level in any series in his life I'm afraid. Defense is a thing;
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=116555458#p116555458

Spoiler:

Paint-Protection - Lebron

-> 27 PPs
-> 5 PPs
-> 3 EPPs
-> 1 IPPs
-> 9 IAs

Perimeter Defense - Lebron
-> 16 PPDs
-> 9 EPPDs
-> 3 IPPDs

[homecourtloss]

1. Duncan — ends the great 1998–2007 run though he’d still be an impact player even up until his retirement nearly 10 years after this period.
2. Nash — ATG offensive engine doing the same things again including in the playoffs.
3. LeBron — great run in the playoffs, tasked with being offense creator and cog on defense as well
4. Dirk — could be higher but I liked other Dirk seasons more and this one ended in that ugly loss
5. Kobe —I like it less than 2006 but Kobe did heavy lift in that with a better cast would result in winning in the next few years

[Djoker]

A couple of other interesting observations about this season.

Going by SRS, the Bulls were the best team in the (much weaker) East this year. They swept the defending champs Heat which struggled all year with injuries to Wade and Shaq and then played the Pistons tough almost forcing Game 7 after falling down in an 0-3 hole. No standout individuals on the Bulls but a commendable effort.

The Pistons were the 2nd best team in the East by SRS but obviously with more PS pedigree than the Bulls. Still, this was their weakest season in their stretch of dominance; they'd bounce back in 2008 where you could argue they were the 2nd best team after the Celtics. Losing Big Ben hurt them on defense especially in the clutch. Playing an over-the-hill Chris Webber was weird to be quite honest. He never quite fit with that roster. If they made the Finals, they likely would have been decimated by the Spurs.

The Mavs weren't quite as good as their 67-15 record. By SRS, they are a 61-win team. Still, getting upset by 41-win pace Warriors is arguably the biggest upset in NBA history. And Dirk was horrible in that series. I want to remove him from my ballot but I think he'll still sneak in 5th after Duncan/Kobe/Nash/Lebron just off the weight of his RS.

The Suns were just as good as in 2005 with Amare back but they were more balanced now playing a 2nd big in Diaw/Kurt Thomas and slotting Marion at SF. And defensive standout Raja Bell now started at SG instead of Joe Johnson. The Suns managed to finish 13th with a rDRtg of exactly 0 while still being the league's best offense. They were a top 3 team with the Spurs and Mavs and with the Mavs gone early, that 2nd round series really feels like the Finals. Too bad for the suspensions because this was their best shot at a ring.

Regarding the actual Finals, the Cavs were obviously heavily outmatched (as they would be against Dallas and Phoenix as well) but no one talks about how the Cavs' defense kept the series close. The Cavs from 2007-2009 have one of the best three-year PS defensive stretches in NBA history. That team certainly lacked offensive talent but being such a big team with Gooden/Big Z/Varejao up front and playing physical defensive guards like Snow/Hughes a bunch, they were a tough team to score on. Of course, they were completely incompetent on offense which they shouldn't have been if Lebron played up to par. He had a horrible series, maybe even the worst of his career (yes maybe even worse than 2011) but he gets a pass because no one expected the Cavs to win the series.

That leaves the Spurs. Duncan put in a super strong defensive season here. They were the only contender to make it out of the West and get an easy series against the East champs. A bit anticlimactic and while Parker won the MVP, I have little doubt that Duncan was the best player on the Spurs. If I had to guess, Manu is ahead of Parker as well for the entire RS + PS.

[AEnigma]

Jordan performed well in one series.

To be more accurate, Jordan played at a GOAT level in one series then played solidly in another series. There is no equivalency between these two seasons and it's kind of weird of you to bring this up.

RS

1988 Jordan: 35.0/5.5/5.9 on +6.5 rTS with 3.1 topg
2007 Lebron: 27.3/6.7/6.0 on +1.1 rTS with 3.2 topg

PS

1988 Jordan: 36.3/7.1/4.7 on +7.0 rTS with 3.9 topg
2007 Lebron: 25.1/8.1/8.0 on -1.7 rTS with 3.3 topg

Quoting a box score is not an argument when it fails to capture the difference in creation activity and creation quality between the two. Your only actual criticism here, almost as always, comes down to scoring. Which is not offensive impact by itself.

Regardless, the comparison for Jordan was Magic, who was better offensively in the regular season, better offensively in the postseason, and better offensively against a common opponent… yet apparently did not do enough (score enough) to be your choice that year. Just like last year, where Nash was not even on your OPoY ballot.

[Djoker]

Jordan performed well in one series.

To be more accurate, Jordan played at a GOAT level in one series then played solidly in another series. There is no equivalency between these two seasons and it's kind of weird of you to bring this up.

RS

1988 Jordan: 35.0/5.5/5.9 on +6.5 rTS with 3.1 topg
2007 Lebron: 27.3/6.7/6.0 on +1.1 rTS with 3.2 topg

PS

1988 Jordan: 36.3/7.1/4.7 on +7.0 rTS with 3.9 topg
2007 Lebron: 25.1/8.1/8.0 on -1.7 rTS with 3.3 topg

Quoting a box score is not an argument when it fails to capture the difference in creation activity and creation quality between the two. Your only actual criticism here, almost as always, comes down to scoring. Which is not offensive impact by itself.

Regardless, the comparison for Jordan was Magic, who was better offensively in the regular season, better offensively in the postseason, and better offensively against a common opponent… yet apparently did not do enough (score enough) to be your choice that year. Just like last year, where Nash was not even on your OPoY ballot.

There is no gap in creation between the two in the RS and in the PS, the creation gap in favor of Lebron is actually smaller than the assist averages would have you believe.

Box Creation (from Thinking Basketball)

RS

1988 Jordan: 7.5
2007 Lebron: 7.6

PS

1988 Jordan: 7.9
2007 Lebron: 9.5

Lebron being a better playmaker in the PS doesn't come close to making up the huge scoring gap of roughly 11 points in volume and 9% in relative efficiency.

And no.. Magic wasn't better than MJ in 1988 in terms of individual production. But still, he had a good argument for OPOY too. It could go to either Jordan or Magic depending on how you slice it for that year.

[AEnigma]

Exactly which part of “box creation” do you feel goes beyond the box score?

And yet again, “individual production” here ultimately just means box accumulation. There is no rule against that being your standard, but do not pretend you actually care about a team’s offensive results when we all can see you transparently do not so long as the scoring output is sufficiently high.

[Djoker]

Exactly which part of “box creation” do you feel goes beyond the box score?

And yet again, “individual production” here ultimately just means box accumulation. There is no rule against that being your standard, but do not pretend you actually care about a team’s offensive results when we all can see you transparently do not so long as the scoring output is sufficiently high.

Box creation tracks open shots created for teammates per 100 possessions. It's not based on box score.

The project is player of the year, not team of the year. Naturally I do care more about individual production than I do team offensive results. Of course the easiest case for evaluation is if the two go hand in hand. But correlation isn't the same as causation. For many seasons, especially prior to 1997, we don't have enough impact data to figure out who affects the game more. 1988 partial RAPM was a factor (albeit a small one and just a piece of the puzzle) in my valuation of Jordan > Magic in that year for both POY and OPOY. But as I recall, you dismissed that data.

[AEnigma]

Exactly which part of “box creation” do you feel goes beyond the box score?

And yet again, “individual production” here ultimately just means box accumulation. There is no rule against that being your standard, but do not pretend you actually care about a team’s offensive results when we all can see you transparently do not so long as the scoring output is sufficiently high.

Box creation tracks open shots created for teammates per 100 possessions. It's not based on box score.

And how exactly does it calculate “open shots created for teammates”.

The project is player of the year, not team of the year. Naturally I do care more about individual production than I do team offensive results.

Yet your reflexive argument against Lebron as #2 was team offensive results.

Of course the easiest case for evaluation is if the two go hand in hand. But correlation isn't the same as causation. For many seasons, especially prior to 1997, we don't have enough impact data to figure out who affects the game more. 1988 partial RAPM was a factor (albeit a small one and just a piece of the puzzle) in my valuation of Jordan > Magic in that year for both POY and OPOY. But as I recall, you dismissed that data.

Yes, because partial RAPM based on snippets of a season is not a serious citation — nor do you care about that either, seeing as Nash was completely off your OPoY ballot last year.

[penbeast0]

Yes, because partial RAPM based on snippets of a season is not a serious citation — nor do you care about that either, seeing as Nash was completely off your OPoY ballot last year.

Of course, what you are saying doesn't prove what you claim it does. It proves he doesn't care ONLY about partial RAPM, there may be other factors he cares about more which overwhelmed the partial RAPM impact.

[Djoker]

Exactly which part of “box creation” do you feel goes beyond the box score?

And yet again, “individual production” here ultimately just means box accumulation. There is no rule against that being your standard, but do not pretend you actually care about a team’s offensive results when we all can see you transparently do not so long as the scoring output is sufficiently high.

Box creation tracks open shots created for teammates per 100 possessions. It's not based on box score.

And how exactly does it calculate “open shots created for teammates”.

The project is player of the year, not team of the year. Naturally I do care more about individual production than I do team offensive results.

Yet your reflexive argument against Lebron as #2 was team offensive results.

Of course the easiest case for evaluation is if the two go hand in hand. But correlation isn't the same as causation. For many seasons, especially prior to 1997, we don't have enough impact data to figure out who affects the game more. 1988 partial RAPM was a factor (albeit a small one and just a piece of the puzzle) in my valuation of Jordan > Magic in that year for both POY and OPOY. But as I recall, you dismissed that data.

Yes, because partial RAPM based on snippets of a season is not a serious citation — nor do you care about that either, seeing as Nash was completely off your OPoY ballot last year.

Read the article about Box Creation here: https://fansided.com/2017/08/11/nylon-calculus-measuring-creation-box-score/

As Ben describes, it is a regression model and calculated using box score data but very closely matches hand-tracked data for Opportunities Created. I guess my original post on that is inaccurate. I should have said that it is box-based but accurately predicts creation.

Because Lebron's individual production was poor as well. It's a double whammy.

Agree to disagree. I think 42 games for Jordan and 54 for Magic is a very decent sized sample to just dismiss.